Natural Gas from Senegal…

 

“In 2014, a vast repository of the fossil fuel was found beneath the seabed, and since then, the two countries have been working together to exploit it, hoping for multibillion-dollar revenues. Extraction is planned to continue for 30 years, with the profits being divided up between the energy giants BP and Kosmos, and between the governments of Senegal and Mauritania. ”

— Spiegel

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“The change we are seeing in everyday economic life here is astonishing, says Dalia Samra-Rohte, the delegate of German industry and commerce for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen at the German-Saudi Arabian Liaison Office for Economic Affairs. And it is clearly felt when you drive around the country and talk to young female engineers, startup founders and project managers. They tell you: We’re not all sullen and threatening, we’re just trying to become freer and more progressive, and for that we need recognition, not the eternal moralizing arrogance of the West.”

— Spiegel

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Maps Of Senegal

 

The Ahmeyim field, located in Saint Louis Offshore Profond block of Senegal, was discovered by the Ahmeyim-2 discovery well, which was drilled up to 5.2km depth in 2016. Picture courtesy of BP p.l.c

1. European Casts Covetous Eyes toward West Africa

   “Until recently, Europe had been urging Africa to focus on the development of renewable energy sources. But a natural gas project in Senegal suddenly has Germany, France, Italy and others flocking to the country hoping for a new supplier.”

   Alarge wave spills over the gunwales of the wooden pirogue and everything in the bottom of the boat begins floating around in the swirling water. Another wave hits the boat a short time later, its keel rising two meters before plunging into the trough, hitting the surface hard.

   Moustapha Dieng leans placidly on a plank of wood, amused by the pale faces of the DER SPIEGEL team onboard with him. Dieng is wearing a black wool cap, his shaggy beard has long since become peppered with gray and he is missing several teeth. In the coastal village of Guet Ndar, essentially an extension of Saint Louis, a city in northern Senegal, they call him "father." Dieng is head of the powerful association of traditional fishermen in Senegal. He knows everybody here, and everybody knows him.

   Dieng laughs frequently, and even when he’s not laughing, he has a whimsical smirk on his face. He has fought many battles in his life – against storms and tides and against the foreign trawlers that spent many years depleting the fishing stocks off the coast of Senegal. But never before has he had such a powerful adversary as he does today. He has declared war on one of the world’s largest oil and natural gas companies. The man in the wooden pirogue is outraged at the vast monster of steel and concrete he is currently approaching: Starting next year, a consortium led by BP is to begin extracting natural gas here on the border between Senegal and Mauretania, and much of the facility is already complete

   In 2014, a vast repository of the fossil fuel was found beneath the seabed, and since then, the two countries have been working together to exploit it, hoping for multibillion-dollar revenues. Extraction is planned to continue for 30 years, with the profits being divided up between the energy giants BP and Kosmos, and between the governments of Senegal and Mauritania.

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   For our Global Societies project, reporters around the world will be writing about societal problems, sustainability and development in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe. The series will include features, analyses, photo essays, videos and podcasts looking behind the curtain of globalization. The project is generously funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

   Replacing Russia

   "Natural gas is an immense opportunity for our country," says Ly, "also because the demand for new producers is huge due to the war in Ukraine." Senegal, in other words, is trying to quickly catapult itself into the ranks of gas-producing nations. Processes that normally take years must be completed within just a few months in order to meet European demand as rapidly as possible and to profit from the high global prices. "At the moment," Ly laughs, "everybody is knocking on our door."

   Bild vergrößern

   One of those is German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who was in Senegal in May. It was a notable visit, a "turning point" in German energy policy, as Scholz noted himself in the subsequent press conference. It is sensible, he said, to "intensely pursue" cooperation in gas exploitation. Berlin is currently under pressure to quickly find alternatives to Russian natural gas, and the West African country is more than happy to jump into the breach.

   Germany, though, had been intending to halt all further investments in fossil fuel repositories. Indeed, the issue is so sensitive that the German side has shown reluctance to discuss the cooperation. Petrosen General Director Ly, though, has no such constraints. He says that concrete negotiations have begun with the German energy supplier Uniper, even if Uniper headquarters has thus far not responded to a DER SPIEGEL request for comment. But Ly also makes it clear that those hoping for preferential treatment are expected to invest money in Senegal.

   Either way, the German government does not have an endless amount of time on its hands. President Macky Sall and his cabinet are currently the focus of fawning attention from a number of European countries, including France, Portugal, Poland and Italy – all of which are eager to secure natural gas from Senegal, even if it isn’t yet available for export. It is a rather welcome change for a country that has long requested funding from the aid budgets of countries in the Global North. The Senegalese government has realized that now is the time to get the absolute most out of the natural gas reserve. Now or never.

   The mood marks a significant shift from last year, when European governments were singing the praises of the potential in Africa for renewable energies and warning against the exploitation of oil and gas. Macky Sall consistently resisted such sentiments. At the UN General Assembly in New York in September, he said: "It is legitimate, fair and equitable that Africa, the continent that pollutes the least and lags furthest behind in the industrialization process, should exploit its available resources." Now, those from the north who had presumed to lecture Africa are lining up and waiting for the Senegalese natural gas spigots to be turned on.

   Ly, the Petrosen general director, is unimpressed by the criticisms leveled by the fishing community of Saint Louis. "The anger of those affected is primarily a communications problem," he says, claiming that "there were never fishing grounds where the gas platform now stands."

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   "A Huge Opportunity for the Region"

   Land Cruisers with tinted windows roll up to the conference hotel, spilling out women and men in uniform or in traditional suits. They enter the packed room searching for their assigned seat at the U-shaped table. Massaer Cissé, the top BP executive in Senegal, holds an impassioned presentation about the advantages of natural gas exploitation, saying things like: "Natural resources belong to the Senegalese people and not to BP." And: "I am extremely fond of this area." And: "Fishing and gas are not mutually exclusive, they complement each other wonderfully." His presentation ends with an uplifting video complete with background music in which residents of Saint Louis gush about the good deeds performed by the oil and gas multinational.

   The governor, in full military dress, looks satisfied. "The gas is a huge opportunity for the region. It will enable us to solve all of our problems," he intones. There is, though, a notable absence at the conference table: the fishing community. "Nobody invited me," says Moustapha Dieng, the chairman of the fishing association. "Probably because I’m always too loud."

   BP and the other project partners have taken steps to calm tempers. They have distributed free lifejackets, handed out food during the coronavirus pandemic and made state-of-the-art projectors available to local organizations. But the resentment has persisted. In part because the divvying up of the gas fields early on was overshadowed by allegations of corruption. Concern in the country is significant that only a tiny elite will profit from the money earned from the natural resource, as has happened in other African countries. Greenpeace, the environmental protection organization, has also warned of the incalculable risks to the Saint Louis ecosystem, particularly given the presence of important marine reserves near the gas platform.

   The Senegalese government is not allowing such concerns to derail its plans. Elections are to be held in 2024, the country is carrying a heavy debt load, rising prices are increasingly becoming a problem, and expensive subsidies must be phased out. New revenue sources are badly needed. "We certainly won’t turn into Qatar or the Emirates, but gas and oil could vastly accelerate the development of Senegal," says Petrosen executive Ty. The West African country is also hoping to use the gas to improve access to electricity in the country.

   At the port of Dakar, enthusiasm for this shift is significant. At one quay, two giant ships are moored, producing quite a din. The Turkish company Karpowership operates the floating powerplants. But the technology is anything but environmentally friendly. Currently, the power generated is being produced using crude oil.

   Outside the Port of Dakar, however, a ship is anchored that gives hope for change. The huge blue freighter with white superstructure can be seen at quite a distance. Two pipelines lead from the ship into the sea.

   The LNG tanker will soon collect liquified natural gas from around the world, transform it back into gas ongboard before then sending it to the floating powerplants in port.

   The plan will replace crude oil with natural gas, which produces far less emissions. "It is a sensible and flexible transition technology on the path to clean energy," says project leader Nazli Lermioglu.

   But the plan currently doesn't have much of a future. Because global prices for natural gas are so high, switching from crude oil doesn't currently make financial sense. "We are hoping that prices stabilize soon. The natural gas extracted in Senegal could help," say the operators.

   In Germany, though, this part of Scholz’s trip to Senegal was largely ignored, with the focus instead placed on the German chancellor’s efforts to secure future deliveries of Senegalese natural gas. His visit to the solar facility didn’t make an appearance in the main headlines. Von Klitzing hopes that isn’t a sign of things to come and that Senegal’s gas boom doesn’t come at the cost of renewable energies. "I think that both can work during a transitionary phase. Gas and renewable energies can complement each other," he says.

   At the moment, Germany and the other G-7 countries are engaged in negotiations with Senegal on a socially just energy transition. A similar deal is in place with South Africa, with the country set to receive billions for phasing out its coal industry. With COP27 underway, Berlin would love to reach an agreement with Senegal – observers believe that solar energy and sustainable hydrogen could play an important role in any such deal. But neither side is likely interested in turning their backs any time soon on Senegal’s natural gas fields.

2. All Eyes on the Gulf…

   The Present and Future of Europe's Energy Supply

   The autocratic countries of the Persian Gulf play a key role in the new world order – and for the future of Germany's economy. Complete dependence will be difficult to avoid.

   By Monika Bolliger, Claus Hecking, Martin Hesse, Marina Kormbaki, Dirk Kurbjuweit, Ralf Neukirch, Thomas Schulz und Gerald Traufetter

   11.11.2022, 18.43 Uhr

   The Saudi Arabian desert can seem endless, particularly here in the northwestern part of the country, where people are a rare sight. For hours on end, there is only sand, rock, heat and the occasional empty road. It seems almost unreal, almost like a fata morgana, when long columns of dump trucks suddenly appear just before the Red Sea coast. They are followed by a swarm of excavators, digging their way through dunes and scree across several dozen kilometers.

   Perhaps, grumble critics, the plans for what is to be built here are nothing more than hot air. After all, those plans sound far too crazy to be true: a model region called NEOM, as big as the German state of Hesse, rising out of the desert, complete with technology parks, industrial production and a 170-kilometer-long futuristic city – 500 meters high, 200 meters wide, completely CO2 neutral. Residents will move through the metropolis in flying taxis and high-speed trains. The price tag? Five-hundred-billion dollars. For the first phase.

   The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 46/2022 (November 12th, 2022) of DER SPIEGEL.

   SPIEGEL International

   Crazy? More like shock and awe. A demonstration to the world of what can be done with virtually limitless monetary resources. Mohammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince and ruler, is the driver behind the vision. By 2030, the country is to have transformed into a high-tech nation, independent of oil and even more powerful than it is today. It is a monstrous, almost surreal plan. But the money is there – more than ever before.

   Three-and-a-half trillion dollars, an unfathomable sum, are set to flow into the coffers of the six Gulf states in the next five years should the prices for oil and gas remain as high as they are today – a gift from Vladimir Putin. Because Europe is no longer interested in importing energy from Russia, oil from Saudi Arabia and natural gas from Qatar have become the focus, no matter how high the price.

   The plan currently afoot in the desert is perhaps more gigantic than any project since the construction of the pyramids. Fully 30,000 construction workers are already laboring away in NEOM, with that number soon to explode to 300,000. In just a single year, a town for 4,000 engineers, technicians and project planners from around the world has sprung up, complete with swimming pools, schools, restaurants and tennis courts. Long rows of single-story homes stretch out behind barbed wire and security gates.

   Nobody really knows what will ultimately become of the project – either a futuristic metropolis or an abject failure – but Saudi leaders are primarily interested in the message behind it, both domestically and abroad. Indeed, in the government quarters of Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, officials could hardly be more full of themselves.

   At a time when the West is suffering and China is showing economic vulnerability, the economies on the Gulf see nothing but a bright future and their optimism is boundless. Some examples:

   • In the United Arab Emirates, per-capita income is just as high as it is in Germany.

   • With economic growth of 7.6 percent this year, Saudi Arabia is home to the fastest growing economy of all G-20 member states.

   • Qatar has spent billions to host this year’s World Cup.

   • The sovereign wealth funds of the six Gulf states are worth a combined 4 trillion euros, and they invest money around the world, including in German companies like VW, Porsche and RWE. Or to purchase soccer teams, Formula One races or an entire professional golf league. Saudi Arabia even has its own space program.

   Those traveling from crisis-ridden Europe to the Gulf region this fall will encounter a disquieting contrast. On the one hand, a fearful continent, wracked by self-doubt and fears of recession as it fights to maintain its prosperity and influence. On the other, an entire region drunk on success and on its newfound international importance. And young: Around 70 percent of the population on the Arabian Peninsula is under 30 years of age.

   It seems clear that the Gulf states will place a key role in the new world order currently being established. Qatar and Iran are sitting on the largest natural gas repositories on the planet, while Saudi Arabia is home to the second-largest oil reserves. That was already a huge lever for global influence in the past. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent sidelining of the country, has made that lever even longer. The West has virtually no other options available.

   And it doesn’t end with oil and gas. The energy source of the future is hydrogen, produced with solar and wind. The deserts of the Arabian Peninsula offer perfect conditions for such renewable energy sources. Ultimately, more hydrogen may be exported from the Emirates and Saudi Arabia in the future than oil is today. Germany promises to be a primary destination.

   The development, though, is not without danger: The energy boom is taking place in a time of significant geopolitical upheaval. Globalization is slowing and the world appears to be in the process of once again dividing itself up into blocks: China against the West; autocracies against democracies. Toxic alliances suddenly appear to be a very real possibility.

   Since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading politicians in Berlin have been pushing to bind influential countries to Europe in this multipolar world. Or at least to avoid losing them to Russia or China.

   And Germany isn’t alone. Indeed, Western heads of government have been lining up for months for audiences with Arabian rulers: French President Emmanuel Macron, ex-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden have all made recent trips to the region. The European Union intends to install a special envoy for the region.

   That alone demonstrates the new balance of power. But the fact that many of the trips have produced no results is perhaps even more indicative. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, a member of the environmentalist Green Party, was widely mocked for his almost desperate appeals during his springtime trip to Qatar in the search for natural gas. Thus far, though, no contracts for liquified natural gas (LNG) have been forthcoming. And when Biden, during his trip to Riyadh in summer, asked that the country boost its oil production to tamp down gas prices in the U.S., the Saudis did precisely the opposite.

   Cooperating with strong and increasingly self-confident Gulf states requires a certain amount of imagination, particularly for a Berlin governing coalition that has professed its dedication to a values-based foreign policy.

   How, though, should the West deal with economically and politically indispensable autocracies, countries that are undemocratic, ruled by despots, frequently show little respect for human rights and treat women and migrants as commodities? Countries which, on the other hand, are capable of extremely rapid progress, not just economic but also social. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the share of women in the tech sector is higher than it is in Germany.

   So, should Germany give its age-old doctrine of change through trade, suddenly abandoned in the wake of Russia’s belligerence, another try? It would certainly benefit the German economy: Almost nowhere in the world is more money currently changing hands. Companies of all sizes are streaming into the region to earn their fair share from the gigantic wind parks and hydrogen facilities that are coming.

   Abu Dhabi almost seems like a beautiful city when the muezzins call for sunset prayers and the humid November heat finally loosens its grip, when dusk makes everything seem a bit softer and friendlier – the almost 400-meter-tall skyscrapers reflecting the Persian Gulf, framed by beaches, islands and mangrove forests. It is a fleeting moment of calm, quickly dispelled by 12-lane highways and endless checkerboard city quarters.

   The capital city of the United Arab Emirates has grown too quickly to exude the natural charm of other global metropolises. In the 1960s, there was neither electricity nor a sewer system in many places – today it is home to some 1.5 million people. Soon, the population is expected to hit 3 million. None of the city’s landmarks are older than 20 years: the offshoot of the Louvre, designed by star architect Jean Nouvel; a palatial luxury hotel, where cappuccinos are served with flakes of 24-carat gold; and the Leaning Tower of Abu Dhabi, which reaches 160 meters into the sky and has a lean four times as severe as the tower in Pisa.

   At its foot is the convention center, with the elite of the energy world gathering here in late October every year. More than 2,000 senior executives from multinationals like BP and Shell, along with more than 40 oil, energy or economy ministers were present. All of them eager to rub elbows with the sheikhs and negotiate new deals: oil and natural gas for today, hydrogen for tomorrow.

   This year, Klaus-Dieter Maubach made the trip, the head of Uniper, Germany’s largest natural gas trader, freshly bailed out by German taxpayers to the tune of 40 billion euros. Historically, Uniper has imported almost all of its gas from Russia. But now, it must go shopping elsewhere, leading to a smiling Maubach sitting on a podium before skeptical Emiratis, Saudis and other energy traders and talking about the future. About Uniper’s LNG terminal in Wilhelmshaven, set to begin operations in November, and about where the gas will come from. "Our priority is securing the supply of natural gas for Germany and Europe," the executive intoned. Uniper, he said, has the experience to do so: "The global procurement of natural gas is in our DNA."

   However, there aren’t too many options left in the world for Uniper. And certainly not at an acceptable price. The pipelines leading from gas-producing countries to Central Europe are either at maximum capacity, destroyed or politically taboo. And on the global market for LNG, much of the product is already accounted for by long-term contracts with countries like Japan, South Korea and China.

   Indeed, it was even cause for celebration when, following the German chancellor’s visit to Abu Dhabi, the state-owned energy company Adnoc promised the delivery of a single tanker full of LNG to the German company RWE. Securing the delivery of one shipment at a time, as many as possible, that will be the main goal of Uniper executives in the Gulf for some time to come. It isn’t likely to be easy to develop a long-term delivery cooperation with the United Arab Emirates.

   Abu Dhabi, after all, doesn’t just want to be in the position of filling the gaps in Germany’s supply this winter and next. "We told Germany: If you want natural gas from us, then we need a long-term contract," says Mariam bint Mohammed Almheiri. "It is a large investment for us, it also has to be sustainable.”

   To meet the U.A.E.’s minister for environment and climate, you have to head out to the middle of nowhere in Dubai, to a mundane glass structure between the highway and the desert. Almheiri speaks a mixture of English and accent-free German, her native language. A smart and eloquent woman, Almheiri’s mother is from the Rhineland region of Germany and her father is from the U.A.E. She knows Germany well, having gone to university in Aachen and working as an engineer for the rolling bearings manufacturer Cerobear before moving to the country of her father. She doesn’t wear a headscarf. She frequently spends her holidays visiting relatives in Lower Saxony.

   "There are so many countries knocking on our door at the moment."

   Mariam bint Mohammed Almheiri, climate minister of U.A.E.

   The minister knows precisely what the Germans need: energy for their factories, for heating and for power plants. And that fits in well with the plans laid out by Abu Dhabi’s government and the country’s state-owned firms.

   The emirates are following a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they want to continue selling their oil and gas for as long as possible. On the other, they want to become a major power when it comes to renewable energies. By 2030, ruler Mohammed Bin Zayed has announced, the country – population 10 million – is to be responsible for a quarter of the global hydrogen market.

   That aspiration explains why the emirates have long been one of the most important factors in Germany’s energy future. Germany hopes to become climate neutral by 2045, a goal which will be impossible to reach without green hydrogen. The energy source is easy to transport and store, which also makes it easy to import. Otherwise, all of Lower Saxony and half of Bavaria would likely have to be covered in solar panels to generate sufficient quantities of renewable energy.

   Beginning in 2030, Germany will need around 100 terawatt hours of green hydrogen each year, according to an Environment Ministry estimate. And that will require the kind of industrial production capacities that don’t yet exist. Which explains why one of Economy Minister Robert Habeck’s first trips as a cabinet member was to the United Arab Emirates in March. "Conditions here are such that a huge amount of energy comes down from the sky," Habeck says. And it’s cheap. A kilowatt hour of solar power from the Arabian Desert costs just 1.34 cents.

   The emirate of Dubai already began producing green hydrogen last year with the largest contiguous solar park in the world – a facility built with the help of Siemens. "The region is extremely important, because it shows how the energy transformation works," says Dietmar Siersdorfer. The Siemens executive has been heading up the company’s activities in the Gulf region for more than a decade, including more than 100 energy products and 3,000 employees.

   Internal documents make it clear why the Middle East is so lucrative for the multinational. Some 50 million people in the region are still without electricity, with new powerplants needed to fill the gap. The oil and gas industries need technology for decarbonation. The company can also be helpful in turning the Gulf into a key energy partner for Europe.

   Dubai, for example, says Siersdorfer, is investing in wind and solar to produce hydrogen with renewable energies from the get-go. Siemens Energy is a consultant. As such, Siersdorfer is optimistic that the company will receive lucrative contracts once the projects really start moving. And Siemens Energy turbines, which run on gas today, can be powered by hydrogen in the future, the executive says.

   The Gulf states, says Siersdorfer, are extremely pleased with the new interest in the region from Europe. Thus far, EU countries had primarily been focused on China and the United States. "But the Gulf states are still looking for their place in the world." For Europeans, he says, that is an opportunity, provided they aren’t only interested in rapid deliveries of LNG. "People here value stable contacts and long-term energy partnerships."

   Particularly given the ambitious plans the emirates are pursuing. Additional gigantic solar parks are under construction, with the state-owned oil company Adnoc, the sovereign wealth fund Mubadala and the energy supplier Taqa providing the billions in investment necessary. Insiders say that the primary target market for the green hydrogen that will be produced is Germany, through companies like Uniper and RWE.

   The deal hasn’t yet been signed, though. "There are so many countries knocking on our door at the moment," says Minister Almheiri. On the other hand, the emirates aren’t the only possible partner in the region. There are others as well.

   "I am certain that Saudi Arabia will play a central role in the hydrogen revolution, because we are home to wind, sun, space and the geographical location to supply Europe and Asia," says Peter Terium. "And the Saudis are very good at building huge infrastructure facilities."

   Terium was head of RWE for many years. But in 2018, he was headhunted by the Saudi leadership to set up the energy supply for the model region NEOM. By 2030, it will be home to 1.5 million residents and numerous technology parks and companies, all of which are to be powered by renewable energies, as a model for the entire country. Currently, the share of renewable energies in Saudi Arabia’s energy mix is less than 1 percent, but plans call for that number to rise to 50 percent by 2030. It is, Terium says, a realistic goal, since it is possible for Saudi Arabia to obtain solar power at a price of just 1 cent per kilowatt hour.

   An entire region drunk on success and on its newfound international importance

   Terium is one of the pioneers of Saudi Arabia’s prestige project and will soon have been living for four years in one of the small homes at the construction site. He is head of the energy subsidiary spun off from NEOM. Surrounding his home are hundreds of others, slapped together for thousands of engineers and technicians, along with their families. NEOM Community 1 looks like an insulated university campus, but it is large enough that electric scooters and bicycles are parked on every corner so that workers can get back and forth between their homes and their offices. Work continues seven days a week, around the clock. Even late at night, workers are assembling new office barracks.

   "The first wave of the energy transformation was low prices for solar and wind energy," says Terium. "The second wave is starting now: Industry can only be decarbonized with hydrogen."

   Terium wants to ensure that NEOM "drives this paradigm shift." Just a few minutes’ drive from NEOM Community 1 in a Jeep through the desert is the centerpiece of his plans: One of the world’s largest hydrogen factories, with an output of 2,000 megawatts. The foundation and the first pipes can already be seen, and completion is set for 2025. The Saudis are hoping it is the first step toward dominating the 700-billion-dollar global hydrogen market – and to leaving the United Arab Emirates in their dust.

   The German company Thyssenkrupp is expected to make a major contribution to those plans. The company is building the electrolysis plant for hydrogen production at a cost of almost a billion euros. It is one of the biggest contracts awarded to date and a major step for the Essen-based company to become a key player in future technologies. "It is now up to industry to breathe life into the new energy partnerships in the Gulf initiated by the German government," says Thyssenkrupp CEO Martina Merz. "We need to reduce dependencies and develop partnerships that are not simple supplier relationships but mutual partnerships."

   Thyssenkrupp isn’t interested in talking much about its involvement, at least not officially. Relations with Saudi Arabia's rulers aren't just morally fraught. In the future, the royal family would like to build up technology industries of its own. In particular, it hopes to participate in the research and development of hydrogen technologies, an advantage that Thyssenkrupp and other German industrial companies aren’t interested in giving up.

   Saudi Arabia is currently building its own hydrogen research center, part of a huge innovation hub being built at the southern end of NEOM on the Red Sea, an industrial district that is set to become the world's largest floating structure. Excavators are excavating in the basin ahead of building a fully automated port conveniently located near the Suez Canal.

   Does Terium, the sober-minded executive who began his career at the Dutch Finance Ministry, believe in all these megavisions? His answer is guarded: NEOM is ultimately the personal showcase project of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he says.

   At the very least, Terium has clear ideas about what the next steps must be in transforming Saudi Arabia from an oil giant into a hydrogen giant. "Build the infrastructure to export all over the world," he says, preferably a pipeline through the Mediterranean to Europe. While technically feasible, it would be extremely complex from a political perspective. The pipeline would have to pass through many different sovereign territories.

   Nevertheless, Riyadh is mulling the idea. "We don't know if this will work, but it would be a complete gamechanger for Saudi Arabia," says Mohammed Al Balaihed, head of the energy division of Saudi Arabia's powerful sovereign wealth fund. "We're certainly willing to put in the resources and the effort to find out if it can be done."

   The question, though, is whether Europe wants to bind itself so closely to Saudi Arabia. It was barely two years ago that U.S. President Joe Biden declared the country a "pariah" after journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered and brutally dismembered in Istanbul in 2018 – by what are believed to be Saudi agents. Western intelligence agencies would later say that the order to kill him came from the highest levels of government in Riyadh. The Saudi Arabian government denies the allegations.

   And that, too, is Saudi Arabia: According to a press release from the Interior Ministry, 81 people were executed on a single day in March.

   Human rights are also violated in the other Gulf states. In Qatar, immigrant workers died because of disastrous conditions at the construction sites of the World Cup stadiums. Amnesty International denounces "arbitrary detention, cruel and inhumane treatment of detainees, suppression of freedom of expression and violation of the right to privacy” in the U.A.E.

   But Saudi Arabia is in a league of its own. The state religion, Wahabism, is a particularly radical version of Islam, and Shariah law is interpreted in an extremely conservative manner, including public floggings.

   For years, music in public and even movie theaters were banned in the country. To this day, women often only go outside in a niqab, a face veil that leaves only the area around the eyes free. Homosexuality is punishable with the death penatly. Opposition figures are harshly persecuted. And human rights activists claim that torture is routine in Saudi Arabian prisons.

   Nominally, the country, an absolutist monarchy, is led by King Salman, 86. But it is common knowledge that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, MbS for short, has long had a firm grip on power. He has eliminated all competitors in a way that is impressively nefarious even for despots. Including the man who should be the actual heir to the throne: He lured his cousin, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef into a trap.

   The same happened to numerous relatives and business leaders in the country. That, at least, is the story told by reports from Western intelligence services and numerous investigative media outlets.

   In 2017, MbS invited the international financial elite to an investment conference in Riyadh, billed as an intimate offshoot of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and thus fondly dubbed "Davos in the Desert." Wall Street giants and politicians from around the world came, as did the Saudi business elite. After the conference in the palatial Ritz-Carlton, MbS imprisoned the most influential Saudis there and forced them to surrender much of their wealth. Some disappeared for years.

   MbS then named himself head of the supervisory board of the sovereign wealth fund and waged war against Yemen, Saudi Arabia's southern neighbor. He almost invaded Qatar. The Saudi ruler responded to strong criticism from the West by high-fiving Vladimir Putin in front of the cameras at the 2018 G-20 summit.

   The situation, one might think, is clear: an Islamist country led by a brutal despot. A no-go for Western governments and corporations. But it's not as simple as that.

   Saudi Arabia has transformed so rapidly in the past five years that many barely recognize their own country. MbS pushed through reforms that would have seemed unthinkable only recently. Music, concerts and even dating apps are now permitted, the religious police have largely disappeared from the streets, women are allowed to work, they can travel on their own and they are no longer officially required to wear a veil. Several billion euros have been pumped into efforts to expand the education system.

   In 2019, the country introduced visas for tourists, and foreign visitors are now welcome for the first time. All across the country, billions are being invested in world-class tourist centers, such as al-Ula, an impressive UNESCO World Heritage site in the desert an hour's flight west of Riyadh: hewn rock tombs of long-gone kingdoms that could be straight out of an Indiana Jones movie. The history behind it is explained by young female guides in English. How do they speak the language so well? Were they sent to school abroad? No, one answers with a smile. "Watching a lot of Netflix."

   For many young Saudi Arabians, MbS, himself only 37, is a beacon of hope. A man who is paving the way to a more cosmopolitan, modern future. At one of the country's newly established technical universities, women are training to become engineers and computer scientists. Many of the country's prominent startups have been founded by women.

   "The change we are seeing in everyday economic life here is astonishing," says Dalia Samra-Rohte, the delegate of German industry and commerce for Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen at the German-Saudi Arabian Liaison Office for Economic Affairs. And it is clearly felt when you drive around the country and talk to young female engineers, startup founders and project managers. They tell you: We're not all sullen and threatening, we're just trying to become freer and more progressive, and for that we need recognition, not the eternal moralizing arrogance of the West.

   But the truth also includes the fact that no one here likes to be quoted by name and that talking about politics is dangerous. MbS alone decides the extent of the country’s freedoms.

   And that leaves many in Berlin, Brussels and Washington wondering: Mustn’t we support this process of opening? Can we really be partners with such countries? Barely a year ago, the answer to that probably would have been yes, of course. Transformation through trade. But Putin's tanks have flattened that decades-old guiding principle of German international economic policy.

   As such, it's really no surprise that German politicians have to walk on egg shells every time they pay a visit to the region. German Chancellor Scholz first listened to a long monologue about the crown prince's economic visions when he met with MbS in September. Afterward, in a private conversation, the chancellor claims he addressed Khashoggi's murder. Cautiously.

   The journalists accompanying Scholz on that three-day trip at the end of September didn't get to see the crown prince. No one who might ask any critical questions was allowed to approach him. And the chancellor, and this was conspicuous during the long flight in the government airplane, doesn't want to alienate the Arab despots under any circumstances. In Berlin, many are assuming that Putin will be around for some time to come, and no one wants to continue buying energy from Russia while he is still in the Kremlin.

   Politically, too, there are some reasons for Germany and the West to come to terms with the Gulf states. In the short term, they are needed for isolating Putin. During his talks in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Scholz heard from leaders who criticized the Russian leader and distanced themselves from him. The Saudi crown prince, though, was more reserved.

   In the long term, a systemic battle between democracies and authoritarian states is to be expected around the world. In principle, the Gulf region belongs to the authoritarian camp, but that doesn't mean it has to end up there if the conflict comes to a head. The West's relations with countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have traditionally been good; those countries, in turn, tend to sympathize with the states with which they can make the best deals. And that used to be the West.

   The temptation to see the emirs and the princes as good partners is thus significant. On the other hand, though, is the West’s desire to be the protectors of universal claim to human rights – and of the values-based foreign policy that Germany has committed itself to in Chancellor Scholz’s coalition agreement.

   In that agreement, the German government also reiterated its commitment to the weapons embargo that was implemented against Saudi Arabia in 2018. Arms developed by German companies in partnership with other European firms, though, are excluded from that embargo.

   Furthermore, Germany’s Foreign Ministry, under the leadership of Annalena Baerbock, has focused heavily on climate issues – and Saudi Arabia, with its emphasis on hydrogen, makes for a logical partner. Baerbock’s staff believes there are opportunities to be had in the Gulf, with ministry officials speaking of "complementary relationships." Baerbock’s party ally Habeck, over in the Economy Ministry, echoes that sentiment: "Energy partnerships," he says, "are a contribution to détente."

   But neither the Saudi Arabians nor the Qataris have proven to be the obliging raw materials suppliers that Berlin had been hoping for. Christoph Ploss, a member of parliament with the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and chairman of the parliamentary group focusing on relations with the Arab world, accuses the Scholz administration of "having no strategy for the Gulf region." In his conversations with people in the region, he says, he often gets the sense of wounded pride.

   Ploss is demanding that the arms embargo against Saudi Arabia be lifted. "Germany must decide on weapons deliveries on a case-by-case basis. It is ultimately legitimate that Saudi Arabia wants to protect its maritime trade routes and oil refineries from attack – by Iran, for example," says Ploss.

   Arms deliveries are, of course, a political measure to prevent the Gulf states from sliding further toward Russia and China. Particularly given that in both Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., a consensus is developing that the U.S. is no longer a reliable guarantor of security. And if Iran does become a nuclear power, the Saudis may very well welcome assistance from Russia.

   In other words: Being the moral victor could be dangerous for Europe in this era of a changing world order. A purely values-driven foreign and economic policy may be desirable, but preventing an alliance of despots is even more important.

   The flipside of such realpolitik could be seen in Riyadh just a few weeks ago. The crown prince was again hosting his global investment conference, and it was once again held in the horribly pompous Ritz Carlton, where he once locked up his adversaries and robbed them of their power. Just like the murder of Khashoggi, that incident is no longer an issue for the world’s financial and economic elite – for the 7,000 senior executives, bankers and politicians who have arrived to consort with the Saudi leadership.

   Outside, the desert sun is beating down, but inside, the leaders of Goldman Sachs and Blackrock are discussing "a new global order" together with energy ministers, sovereign wealth managers and former heads of government from the West. An order that will naturally include a greater role for the Gulf states.

   "Saudi Arabia and the United States have been allies for more than 75 years," says Jamie Dimon, head of JPMorgan Chase, adding that it will remain that way in the future. He was echoing the message of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who has touted the concept of "friend shoring" in times of war and conflict, which essentially means doing business only with allied nations. The Saudis in the venue applauded when Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon praised the "strong American leadership." Global politics in the Riyadh test tube.

   In times of shifting power blocks and new power centers, it was left to Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of the 620-billion-dollar Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund – and a close friend of MbS – to provide a vision for the future. "I believe strongly in a new global order, if all of us here cooperate closely, as partners." The problem, said Al-Rumayyan, are governments that "think ideologically and not pragmatically," a clear reference to Western countries. Yet the answer, from the point of view of Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi, could be so simple: Let money lead the way.

Commission pledges to move on gas price cap proposal…

1. Conclusion of the day's news:

2. BY CHARLIE COOPER, JAN CIENSKI AND BARBARA MOEN

   POLITICO EU

   NOVEMBER 11, 2022 3:24 PM CET

   The European Commission on Friday promised to put forward a proposal on setting a “temporary gas price cap” ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers on November 24, according to a Commission letter to EU ambassadors obtained by POLITICO.

   The Commission has come under fierce pressure from a grouping of 15 member countries as well as European Council President Charles Michel to propose a gas price cap to rein in prices destabilized by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Commission is opposed, as is a group of countries led by Germany and the Netherlands, which fear low prices will dissuade gas exporters.

   An EU diplomat said a “crucial mass” of member countries wants “the full proposal to be tabled” before the November 24 meeting. 

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   “The EU needs to have a mechanism in place that limits episodes of excessive gas prices such as those that we have known in August,” says the letter signed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Czech PM Petr Fiala, whose country holds the Council presidency.

   The Commission letter also says the EU needs to prepare for next winter when there will likely be almost no Russian gas on the market.

   “Over next year, markets are likely to remain tight,” it says.

   The Commission plans to boost efforts for countries to jointly buy gas and to look for gas from other suppliers.

   Finally, the Commission aims to put forward a legislative proposal to “reduce the impact of gas on electricity prices” by early next year.

3. Russia will lose the energy war Putin started

   It’s no exaggeration to say that things look dire for the country’s energy sector.

   Russian President Vladimir Putin's energy strategy may hit EU economies in the short-term, but could backfire in the long-term | iStock

   BY AGATHE DEMARAIS

   NOVEMBER 11, 2022 5:00 AM CET

   Agathe Demarais is the global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Her new book on the global ripple effects of U.S. sanctions, “Backfire,” will be released next week.
   
   Russia has turned energy supply into an economic weapon. The strategy is obvious in Ukraine, where Russian drones and missiles are bombing power plants. But it’s also evident in Europe, where Moscow has turned off gas taps and possibly blown up a gas pipeline.

   However, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s master plan now looks set to backfire.

   In the short term, Putin will, indeed, inflict economic damage on European Union countries — that much is inevitable. But in the long run, Russia simply can’t win this energy war. Putin’s maneuver will only accelerate the demise of his country’s energy sector, and precipitate the loss of its coveted status as a global energy superpower.

   Russia’s weaponization of energy has three objectives. The first, which was applicable when the gas taps were still more or less open, was to create uncertainty and prevent EU countries from preparing for what lay ahead.

News round-up, Friday, November 11, 2022.

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Inflation is also expected to stay higher for longer.”

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Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat

Reuters

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends a joint news conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow, Russia February 18, 2022. Sputnik/Sergey Guneev/Kremlin via REUTERS

MOSCOW, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.

Russia claimed Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions after holding what it called referendums in September – votes that were denounced by Kyiv and Western governments as illegal and coercive. But on Wednesday, in a major retreat, it announced its forces would pull out of Kherson city in the face of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters the region's status was "fixed" and that no changes were possible.

One Wrong Word Can Cost Billions…

A Day with ECB President Christine Lagarde

Europe is threatened by recession, war and a deep economic crisis. Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, is fighting a steep increase in prices as the continent experiences its worst inflation since the introduction of the common currency. Can she pull it off?

By Marc Hujer

09.11.2022, 17.58 Uhr

It's exactly five minutes past seven when Christine Lagarde's spokesperson receives the message that she will pull up at any moment at the agreed to meeting point, a brightly lit Aral gas station in her neighborhood. He had suggested getting there a little bit earlier than absolutely necessary because of the many traffic lights in the area. You never know. He ordered a cab with plenty of time to spare, leaving him with a 20-minute wait at the gas station. It's still dark outside, and nobody pulls in to fill up.

SPIEGEL International

Another two minutes pass before the silver Mercedes rounds the corner, Christine Lagarde's official car. The meeting had initially been scheduled for her apartment, but her staff, responsible as they are for her safety, found the idea a bit heedless. It would have made it clear where she lived.

For the past three years, Christine Lagarde has been the first female president of the European Central Bank (ECB), making her one of the most powerful women in the world. With the key interest rates it announces, the ECB can create or destroy wealth, it can move markets, stock prices and exchange rates. One wrong word from Lagarde can cost billions.

"Good morning," Christine Lagarde says. "Welcome to the car."

She is sitting in the back seat of her Mercedes, behind the passenger seat, her blouse still over her waistband. "What time did you get up this morning?" she wants to know as the car pulls out of the gas station, a question that naturally provokes a question in response. Without uttering a word, Lagarde raises her left hand, bending her thumb so that only four fingers are visible.

At 4 a.m.? Really?!

She nods.

Ahead of her lies one of the most important days in the ECB president's schedule, a "high pressure day," as she puts it. It's the day the Governing Council meets, the ECB's top body that decides on interest rates in Europe every six weeks. The Council membership includes two women and 23 men. In addition to Lagarde, there are five other ECB Executive Board members and the central bank heads of all 19 EU countries that have thus far adopted the euro. She usually takes time to do a few relaxation exercises before heading into the office, Lagarde says, Ashtanga yoga, breathe and hold. But on this particular morning, she had files to study. Four-and-a-half pages. Her chief economist Philip Lane's argument for another 0.75 percent rate hike.

This Thursday, October 27, 2022, will mark the third consecutive time the ECB has raised its key policy rate – this time, from 1.25 percent to 2 percent – after keeping it unchanged at zero percent for more than six years until last July. It's their attempt to stop rising prices. Most recently, the inflation rate in the eurozone stood at 9.9 percent. Nothing worries Europeans more at the moment than rising prices. For the ECB, the stakes are higher than they have been for quite some time.

Lagarde says that not everyone at the ECB thought it was a good idea to be accompanied by a journalist, certainly not on such an important day. But she thinks the opposite is the right approach: The more important the day is, the greater impact her actions have on people's everyday lives, the more important it is, she believes, that the public learns about how things work.

The ECB is an organization with more than 3,500 employees that is responsible for the stability of the world's second-most-important reserve currency after the dollar. It is also the only major central bank responsible for an entire currency area and not just a single country.

It is an organization that, with the exception of experts, few people understand.

As her official car pulls up at the forecourt of the ECB, Lagarde remembers that she's about to be photographed.

But she hasn't yet tucked in her blouse.

It's the only indulgence that the president of the ECB allows herself everyone morning, a little luxury of comfort before she starts work. "When I'm in the car," Lagarde says, "that's when I'm still relaxed, when I can still wear my blouse over my pants."

For a moment, sitting in the car, she considers fixing the wardrobe, with a journalist sitting next to her. The blouse is just a small detail, but small details, she has learned as ECB president, can have great meaning. "I should fix myself up," she admonishes herself. But then it's just too complicated for her, so she gets out as she is.

It takes her five minutes to get through the still darkened, deserted lobby, then on past a security gate, held up for her by a security guard, to take the elevator to the 40th floor of the South Tower, where finally, behind two more security doors and at the end of a very long hallway, her receptionist is waiting.

She greets her warmly and then enters her office, disappearing for another brief moment into a dressing room behind her desk. When she comes out, the blouse has been neatly tucked in.

She has about a half hour now to continue studying the files. Then the Governing Council will meet to set the key interest rate, the rate at which commercial banks can borrow money from the ECB.

The key interest rate isn't the ECB's only instrument for fighting inflation, but it is its most important one. The higher the key interest rate, the more expensive it is for commercial banks to borrow money from the ECB. Commercial banks then try to pass on the increased borrowing costs to their customers. Which means that those interested in taking out a loan to buy property, for example, must pay more to do so. They can't buy as much, which depresses prices, or at least makes them rise more slowly than before.

Lagarde leaves her office at 10 minutes to eight. The Governing Council's meeting room is located on the 41st floor, one floor above her office; no one has a desk any higher in the South Tower. "My blouse is tucked in now," Lagarde says. "We're no longer in 'relaxed mode' now."

The fact that the ECB would raise the key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points this Thursday had already been expected by most experts. An interest rate decision is never made suddenly, because it is always dangerous when central banks do something unexpected. In the past, central banks have triggered massive economic crises, such as the debt crisis in Latin America in the early 1980s, the real estate and stock market crisis in Japan in the late 1980s and the crises in Mexico and Asia a few years later. Investors are prone to overreaction and have a herd mentality. This Thursday meeting is thus about more than just the 0.75 percentage point rate increase. It could provide a glimpse into what the ECB plans to do next. What will the Council decide when it meets again in six weeks?

Lagarde can't say too much, but she also can't say too little. An interest rate decision must be a masterpiece of communication.

She takes the stairs to the 41st floor. The Council members stand together in groups outside the meeting room and drink coffee.

Lagarde already met everyone the previous morning for a "loose exchange of ideas" on various topics, and then again in the afternoon for two 15-minute presentations, each followed by a discussion on financial market developments and the macroeconomic situation. Finally, in the evening, came the "Governor's Dinner" in the dining room of the ECB's North Tower, where they talked about this and that. What they didn't discuss, though, is the exact amount of the interest rate.

That requires an official proposal from the ECB's chief economist, which he has been working on over several days in consultation with the ECB president and finalized on Wednesday night. "He likes to work at night," Lagarde says of Philip Lane, her chief economist. "I'm an early bird." By the time she gets up on Thursdays, Lane has always delivered.

That's another reason that she likes to go to bed early on Wednesdays.

She says she was already asleep by 11 p.m. She left the "Governor's Dinner" earlier than the others, she says, sparing herself the cigar and the bit of cognac that some central bank presidents still allow themselves. Then, at 4:30 a.m., half an hour after she got up, she was sitting in front of the proposal Lane had sent her – and was once again glad she hadn't joined the others for a cigar.

There are advantages to not always wanting to belong.

"I have been an outsider all my life," Lagarde says.

She has always been at the top, but almost always alone – as the very first, and usually as the only, woman.

Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde, born on January 1, 1956, in Paris, is the eldest of four siblings and the only girl among them. She grew up in Le Havre, the port city in northern France. Her father was a university professor and her mother a teacher, who attached great importance to good manners and was convinced that she was of aristocratic origin. She did genealogical research and had a noble ring minted with the coat of arms of her family. In her eyes, her sons were future counts and Christine a future countess.

Accordingly, the expectations for her were always high, and she often fulfilled them.

When she was 17, she attended the private girls' school Holton Arms in Bethesda near Washington, before going on to study at the best schools in France. She was also a member of the French national synchronized swimming team. But time and again, she would rebel against the strict rules, the ban on smoking at the girl's school in the United States, the recommendation to drink a soft drink only once a week, her mother's aversion to jeans.

For six years, she served as head of the U.S. law firm Baker & McKenzie, then as French agriculture minister, then as economics and finance minister and later, for eight years, as the first woman ever to head the International Monetary Fund in Washington. "As a French woman, I was the head of an American law firm," says Lagarde. "I was a politician with zero political background or party affiliation, I was surrounded by Ph.D. economists as French economics and finance minister and as director of the IMF without having a Ph.D. in economics myself and, finally, I came to the ECB as a central banker with no history in central banking. That is my life. That is the way it has always been."

But she doesn't seem to have any trouble finding her way in those situations.

"If people don't expect you to know what they know, if they think you don't speak their language, but you actually do, you can turn that to your advantage. Then you have the advantage of being able to surprise them."

She is not reserved, no matter who she is dealing with, but she always keeps her distance. She's confident without being overbearing and well-mannered but not precious. She can dole it out without losing her composure. And she never forgets to smile.

She approaches the standing tables with the central bank heads of the 19 eurozone countries, 19 people with serious expressions. At first, they don't notice her. Lagarde then lays her arm on the shoulder of one. "You have to behave," Lagarde says.

It apparently wasn't clear to them that they would have a journalist among them today.

They look at Lagarde, their faces brighten and they start to joke. This prompts one gentleman to immediately utter a reminder that we're in the middle of "times of serious inflation." "We can't be seen laughing," he says. And that makes everyone laugh even harder.

By this point, Lagarde has already long since moved on to the next group.

When she took over from her predecessor Mario Draghi three years ago, many complained about the bad mood in the Council. The Council was split between the hawks, who tended to favor higher interest rates, and the doves, who advocated lower rates.

Mario Draghi was a dove, a champion of low interest rates, and he stayed true to his low interest rate policy until the end of his term in October 2019. He wasn't swayed by the misgivings that many held at the time. He made allies with a few key people and trusted that the rest of the Council would follow him. The hawks, including the president of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, felt left out, and the mood in the Council grew increasingly hostile.

Monetary policy is a complex business. There isn't just one, economically correct way, but different interests of the 19 eurozone member states that clash in the ECB Governing Council. The ECB must deal with 19 independent governments that conduct their own fiscal policies. Thus, some incur more debt and others less, which is why a lower interest rate is more favorable for countries like Italy and Portugal, which have high levels of government debt, than for countries like Germany with comparatively less debt.

In the end, can there even be one way that everyone thinks is right?

Lagarde has stated from the very beginning that she doesn't want to be pigeonholed into either camp. She has said that she is neither a hawk nor a dove, and she has invented her own category for herself – the owl, a symbol of cleverness. Indeed, her office is full of plush owls she has received as gifts.

At 8 a.m. on the dot, Lagarde takes her place in the meeting room of the Governing Council, with its panoramic view over Frankfurt. Behind her, the office towers of downtown Frankfurt are visible, and above her, the "Europa ceiling," a stylized map of Europe like the one found on euro banknotes. She sits down on her beige leather chair in front of the circular table, where the other Council members are already seated, and opens the meeting.

She only needs three sentences.

She wishes everyone a good morning.

She welcomes an online participant.

Then she passes the floor to her Chief Economist Philip Lane.

What is discussed for the next three and a half hours remains secret. All those who aren't part of the group must leave the room.

There is a lot of discussion in monetary policy about what is right and what is wrong, but it can take months, sometimes more than a year, to really know whether a measure is working as desired. Key interest rates are an especially slow-acting medicine. It takes time for them to develop their full force, for higher interest rates to become lower consumer prices. And sometimes, decisions must be made about increasing the dosage without knowing of the previous dose may already have been too large.

The critique of Lagarde is that she should have raised rates sooner than July, when she made her first rate move from zero to 0.5 percent. Some economists claim that she underestimated the consequences of the Ukraine war, the sudden rise in energy prices, and now had to raise interest rates all the more vigorously. The risk of overdosing the economy may be higher now.

At the same time, it is questionable how much Lagarde can achieve with a higher key interest rate today. Because, unlike the U.S., where prices are rising primarily due to higher demand, higher energy costs are the main driver of inflation in Europe. But higher interest rates can no longer help against higher energy costs.

After a lunch break spent in her office, she meets with her closest aides, including Philip Lane, to discuss the upcoming press conference.

She can't just speak freely – every word can move prices in the markets.

"The highlight is the press conference," says Lagarde. "That is the moment when you are expected to send a specific message. If you move it just slightly, it can have momentous consequences."

That has already happened once during her term, when she declared it was not the ECB's job to lower the risk premiums of Italian versus German government bonds. That's actually a given, but investors thought it indicated a change of course by the ECB and sold Italian government bonds. The value of Italian bonds fell until Lagarde clarified her position in an interview. She learned from the experience.

The press conference is held in a room accessed directly from the lobby. It is equipped like a TV studio, with modern cameras, lighting and staging.

Lagarde has arrived a few minutes early, and the producer stops her in front of the glass door, behind which the journalists are waiting.

"Three minutes left," says the producer.

Lagarde wants to know which camera she has to look to when the questions come not from the room, but from journalists connected online. She wants to know which part of her face can be seen where. She seems tense.

"You'll do great as you always do," says the producer.

"Thank you," says Lagarde. "More of that, more of that!"

Then she asks for water.

"One minute," says the producer.

Lagarde takes a deep breath.

Her yoga moment.

"That's the moment you breathe in," she says.

"If people don't understand what I'm saying, how can they trust me?"

Of particular interest this Thursday is a sentence with which the ECB sets the framework for the interest rate hike that has just been decided." It goes: "The Governing Council … expects to raise interest rates further." It's not a surprising sentence in and of itself. But, and this is crucial, in its last "Monetary Policy Decisions" in September, when the ECB already raised the key interest rate once by 0.75 percentage points, it said: "Over the next several meetings, the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates further." The "over the next several meetings" has been omitted in the current text. For the uninitiated, there doesn't seem to be any significant difference. But for the markets, it's cause for speculation. Is the ECB saying that there will be fewer interest rate hikes than had been planned in September?

Lagarde stands behind her lectern in front of a blue wall, flanked by her spokesperson and her vice president, welcoming journalists to the press conference. She is supposed to read the "Monetary Policy Statement" now, the document prepared by her chief economist. She takes a breath; every word has to be right. It's at this moment that she realizes that the teleprompter isn't working.

Later, when it's all over, she recounts that moment, staring at the blank teleprompter. If she hadn't put the manuscript on top of her folder just in case, would she have had to say, sorry, the press conference must be postponed because the teleprompter isn't working? She doesn't even want to think about what would have happened then.

But she somehow manages to maintain her composure. You don't even notice that she suddenly has to read from the page, and after a few minutes the teleprompter starts up again. The first part is done. All that remains now are the journalists' questions, a final test of credibility. Can she also talk about monetary policy spontaneously?

She has watched appearances by her predecessor, Mario Draghi, who, whenever he was asked questions, would pick up his manuscript and say he wanted to read it again. And then Draghi would read out entire paragraphs, word for word. And no one seemed to mind.

During her first press conferences, Lagarde did as Draghi did, picking up her manuscript and reading from it, repeating important passages. But when it was then implied that she could only answer questions by looking at her manuscript because she lacked the confidence to speak freely about monetary policy, she refrained from looking at her prepared speech text and answered freely.

But some claim that she's still only reading her answers.

She spends an hour answering journalists' questions. She has a firm grasp of her words, she speaks freely, and always on message.

Further interest rate steps.

Significant progress.

With each question, it all starts over again.

Then, it's over. She returns to the 40th floor, where she briefly meets with the other directors, who congratulate her on the press conference and study the price developments on their mobile phones. Prices have remained stable, the euro has weakened somewhat against the dollar, but there have been no major swings, no disasters, and that's already something.

She briefly greets her partner Xavier Giocanti, who had been in Marseille with his son the night before to watch Eintracht Frankfurt's Champions League match against Olympique Marseille. Then she heads back to her office.

"The measures we have decided to take today will not have a direct impact on prices in the coming months," says Lagarde. "It will probably take 18 months for them to take full effect. We have to explain that, or people won't understand why we're raising the rates at a time when we may be moving into a recession."

Especially for Lagarde, who is often accused of being less confident about the facts than others because she lacks years of experience as a central banker, it is risky to explain facts in simple terms, without resorting to technical vocabulary.

Critics are quick to jump in and claim that she's speaking kindergarten language.

But she can relate well to other people, she's adaptable and willing to learn. She used to smoke unfiltered Gitanes, but now she prefers to smoke a cigar. But she never becomes a member of the club. She plays along without really belonging.

That's not to some people's taste. They want a central bank president who fits in with their image of that role, into their jargon. When an interview appeared in Madame Figaro magazine in August in which Lagarde told her interviewer that she had just started reading James Joyce's novel "Ulysses" for a second time, an editorial appeared a short time later in the German business daily Handelsblatt criticizing her not only for speaking to a magazine that doesn't deal primarily with economic issues, but also for her interest in a novel. "She is reading James Joyce's exceedingly complex Ulysses' for the second time," the editorial read. "Anyone who does that must have a very strong interest in literature – and time on their hands."

It's not easy to break out of this world that clings to its technical terms and sees comprehensibility as an unnecessary risk, especially now, in such tumultuous economic times. Analysts don't like it when she speaks a different, simpler language than the one spoken in the markets, with its set codes that provide them with certainty. But Lagarde feels she has to try anyway. She says there is no other way to create trust in an institution that has become so important to people's everyday lives. "If people don't understand what I'm saying, how can they trust me?" asks Lagarde. "After all, today people don’t trust someone only because the person expresses herself or himself in a complicated way."

She has one last meeting to take care of and then she is flying off to Dublin, where she will visit the finance minister and the central bank president and appear on a talk show. It will be a completely different audience to whom you have to explain things differently. But she's had plenty of practice at that, going all the way back to when she worked as a lawyer. She always recited her pleas to her children as a test of how understandable she was.

Is she also able to explain the ECB's mission to children?

She takes a moment to think on her sofa in Frankfurt and then answers: "I would probably ask children to take a banknote out of their wallet, if they have one, and then ask them what they see in the top left corner. That's where my signature is or that of my predecessor. And I would say: We are the custodians of the euro, and our mission is to ensure that prices remain stable, that the euro is available and recognized in all member countries. And that children can travel from Italy to France and from Germany to Ireland and always pay with the same currency because we're all in the same club that's respected and appreciated around the world."

She stands up.

Perhaps such an explanation isn't just a good one for children. In any case, it's a decent attempt.

EU faces winter recession as war pummels the economy

Inflation is also expected to stay higher for longer.

EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni | Olivier Hoslet/EPA-EFE

BY PAOLA TAMMA

NOVEMBER 11, 2022 11:19 AM CET

The European Commission now expects the EU and euro area to contract in the last quarter of this year and first quarter of 2023, amounting to a technical recession, before returning to positive growth next spring.

Growth forecasts for 2023 were slashed to 0.3 percent in both the EU and the euro area, a cut of over one percentage point from the previous estimates in July. The downgrade is mostly the consequence of Russia's war on Ukraine, which exacerbated the energy crisis and drove up inflation, as well as tightening financial conditions and hitting business confidence.

"We are approaching the end of a year in which Russia has cast the dark shadow of war across our continent once again," said EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. "Soaring energy prices and rampant inflation are now taking their toll and we face a very challenging period both socially and economically," he said.

What happens to us so-called -human beings-? “AI” reports…forcible transfer of children and other at-risk groupsdeportation of Ukrainian children in Russia…

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“Because we have lost our humanity... counting on winning we are willing to do anything... the horrors of unbridled political ambitions... financial greed willing to do all kinds of —-trickery—- regardless of the damage that is being done... we must review ourselves and meditate on the common good in a just society... I believe not only a “forum” on the damage we have caused to our planet is required... But also a “summit” on the ethical thinking and acting of “EVERYONE”....”

— Germán 6 Co

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Ukraine: Russia’s unlawful transfer of civilians a war crime and likely a crime against humanity – new report

• Russian forces tortured and deported civilians from Ukraine

• Children separated from families after forcible transfer

• Older people, people with disabilities, and children struggle to leave Russia

Russian authorities forcibly transferred and deported civilians from occupied areas of Ukraine in what amounted to war crimes and likely crimes against humanity, Amnesty International said in a new report published today.

The report, “Like a Prison Convoy”: Russia’s Unlawful Transfer of Civilians in Ukraine and Abuses During ‘Filtration’, details how Russian and Russian-controlled forces forcibly transferred civilians from occupied Ukraine further into Russian-controlled areas or into Russia. Children have been separated from their families during the process, in violation of international humanitarian law.

Civilians told Amnesty International how they were forced through abusive screening processes – known as ‘filtration’ – which sometimes resulted in arbitrary detention, torture, and other ill-treatment.

Russia’s deplorable tactic of forcible transfer and deportation is a war crime

Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General

“Separating children from their families and forcing people hundreds of kilometres from their homes are further proof of the severe suffering Russia’s invasion has inflicted on Ukraine’s civilians,” said Agnès Callamard, Amnesty International’s Secretary General.

“Since the start of their war of aggression against Ukraine, itself an international crime, Russian forces have indiscriminately attacked and unlawfully killed civilians, destroyed countless lives, and torn families apart. No one has been spared, not even children.

“Russia’s deplorable tactic of forcible transfer and deportation is a war crime. Amnesty International believes this must be investigated as a crime against humanity.

“All those forcibly transferred and still unlawfully detained must be allowed to leave, and everyone responsible for committing these crimes must be held accountable. Children in Russian custody must be reunited with their families, and their return to Ukrainian government-controlled areas must be facilitated.”

Amnesty International documented cases in which members of specific groups – including children, older people and people with disabilities – were forcibly transferred to other Russian-occupied areas or unlawfully deported to Russia. In one case, a woman was separated from her 11-year-old son during filtration, detained, and not reunited with him, in clear violation of international humanitarian law.

People detained during filtration told Amnesty International they had been subjected to torture and other ill-treatment, including being beaten, electroshocked and threatened with execution. Others had been denied food and water, with many held in dangerous and overcrowded conditions.

Amnesty International interviewed 88 people from Ukraine. The majority were civilians from Mariupol, as well as civilians from the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Most, especially those from Mariupol, described coercive conditions that meant that they had no meaningful choice but to go to Russia or other Russian-occupied areas.

Amnesty International considers Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory, including the so-called ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (DNR) in the Russian-controlled part of Donetsk Region, to be illegal.

Forcible transfer from Mariupol

In early March 2022, the southeastern city of Mariupol was completely surrounded by Russian forces, making evacuations impossible. The city was subjected to near-constant bombardment, and civilians lacked access to running water, heat or electricity.

Thousands of people were able to evacuate the city towards Ukrainian government-held areas in mid-March, but as Russia gradually occupied the city, it forcibly transferred some civilians in neighbourhoods under its control, cutting them off from other escape routes. Civilians said they felt coerced to go on ‘evacuation’ buses to the DNR.

Milena, 33, told Amnesty International her experience while trying to flee Mariupol: “We started to ask questions about evacuation, where it is possible to go… I was told [by a Russian soldier] that it was only possible to go to the DNR or to Russia. Another girl asked about other possibilities [to evacuate], for instance to Ukraine… The answer came straight away, the soldier interrupted and said, ‘If you don’t go to the DNR or the Russian Federation, you will stay here forever’.”

Milena’s husband, a former marine with the Ukrainian military, was detained soon afterwards while crossing the border into Russia, and has not yet been released.

Forcible transfer of children and other at-risk groups

The laws of armed conflict prohibit the individual or mass forcible transfer of protected persons, including civilians, from occupied territory. In several cases, children fleeing without parents or other guardians towards Ukrainian-held territory were stopped at Russian military checkpoints, and transferred into the custody of Russian-controlled authorities in Donetsk.

As mentioned, an 11-year-old boy was separated from his mother during filtration, which violates international humanitarian law. The boy and his mother were captured and detained from the Illich Steel and Iron Works in Mariupol in mid-April by Russian forces.

They told me I was going to be taken away from my mom… I was shocked…

An 11-year-old boy who was separated from his mother

He told Amnesty International: “They took my mom to another tent. She was being questioned… They told me I was going to be taken away from my mom… I was shocked… They didn’t say anything about where my mom was going… I have not heard from her since.” 

The report also details the forcible transfer to Donetsk of all 92 residents of a state institution for older people and people with disabilities in Mariupol. Amnesty International documented several cases in which older people from Ukraine appeared to have been placed in an institution in Russia or Russian-occupied areas after fleeing their homes. This practice violates the person’s rights, and makes it difficult for them to leave Russia or to reunite with family members in Ukraine or elsewhere.

Once in Russia, several people said that they felt pressured into applying for Russian citizenship, or said their movements were restricted. The process of obtaining Russian citizenship has been simplified for children who are alleged to be either orphans or without parental care, and for some people with disabilities. This was meant to facilitate the adoption of these children by Russian families, in violation of international law.

These actions indicate a deliberate Russian policy related to its deportation from Ukraine to Russia of civilians, including children, suggesting that in addition to the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer, Russia has likely committed the crime against humanity of deportation or forcible transfer.

Abusive screening processes, detention, and torture

Civilians from Ukraine who fled or were transferred to Russian-occupied areas or to Russia were usually forced through an abusive screening process when entering the DNR, when crossing the border into Russia, and also when leaving Russia for a third country. This process violates their rights to privacy and physical integrity.

At filtration points, officials took photographs of people, collected their fingerprints, searched people’s phones, forced some men to strip to their waists, and interrogated people at length.

Amnesty International documented seven cases where people suffered torture and other ill-treatment during detention. One case involved a 31-year-old woman, another a 17-year-old boy, and five were men in their 20s or 30s.

They bound my hands with tape and put a bag over my head and put tape around my neck…

Vitalii, 31, who was tortured by Russian soldiers while being detained

Vitalii, 31, was detained when he tried to leave Mariupol on an evacuation bus on 28 April. After Russian soldiers declared there was an issue with his documentation, he was forced onto a bus with several other men. He was driven to Dokuchaevsk, a town close to Donetsk, and placed in a cell with 15 men, before being taken for interrogation.

He told Amnesty International: “They bound my hands with tape and put a bag over my head and put tape around my neck… Then they said, ‘Tell us everything… Tell us where you serve, which base?’… [When I said I wasn’t a soldier] they started beating me in the kidneys very hard… I was on my knees, they were mostly kicking me. When they took me back to the garage, they said, ‘Every day, we will do this to you’.”

Amnesty International documented other cases that amount to enforced disappearances under international human rights law, and to the war crimes of unlawful confinement, torture and inhuman treatment. 

Hussein, a 20-year-old student from Azerbaijan, was detained while fleeing Mariupol for Zaporizhzhia in mid-March, and held for almost a month. He was accused of being a member of the Ukrainian military, and beaten while being interrogated.

Hussein told Amnesty International: “One of the soldiers said, ‘He won’t talk like this, bring the electric shocker’… There were two wires, they put them around my big toes and started shocking me repeatedly… They beat me repeatedly… I lost consciousness. They poured a bucket of water on me, and I woke up again. I couldn’t take it anymore, I just said, ‘Yes, I’m a soldier’. They continued beating me, I fell off the chair and they pulled me back up. There was blood coming out of my feet.”

Hussein was threatened with execution, beaten and electroshocked every day, until just a few days before his release on 12 April.

Russia and Russian-controlled forces must immediately stop their violent abuses against detainees

Agnès Callamard

“Russia and Russian-controlled forces must immediately stop their violent abuses against detainees,” said Agnès Callamard.

“The Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court and other relevant authorities must investigate these abhorrent crimes, including those against victims from at-risk groups. All those responsible for deportation and forcible transfer, as well as torture and other crimes under international law committed during filtration, must face justice.”

Methodology

Amnesty International interviewed 88 women, men and children from Ukraine for the report. At the time of the interviews, all but one were in Ukrainian government-controlled areas or were in a safe third country in Europe. One person remained in a Russian-occupied area.

Accountability for war crimes

Amnesty International has been documenting war crimes and other violations of international humanitarian law committed during Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine since the conflict began. All of Amnesty International’s outputs are available here. 

Amnesty International has repeatedly called for members of Russian forces and officials responsible for the aggression against Ukraine and for violations to be held to account, and has welcomed the ongoing International Criminal Court investigation in Ukraine. Comprehensive accountability in Ukraine will require the concerted efforts of the UN and its organs, as well as initiatives at the national level pursuant to the principle of universal jurisdiction.

News round-up, Wednesday, November 10, 2022.

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“Midterms Live Updates: Biden Says Red Wave ‘Didn’t Happen,’ Re-election Decision Will Come Next Year...”

— NYT

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Control of the House and the Senate remain up in the air as President Biden struck an optimistic tone at the White House. Georgia’s Senate race will head to a runoff, while races in Arizona and Nevada have yet to be called.

President Biden discussing the midterm election results at the White House on Wednesday.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Jonathan Weisman and Peter Baker

Biden celebrates Democrats’ performance in midterms and says he recognizes voter concerns.

President Biden declared Wednesday that American voters sent “a clear and unmistakable message” that they wanted to preserve democracy and abortion rights, but he acknowledged voter frustrations with stubbornly high inflation and governmental dysfunction.

Speaking at the White House at an extended news conference, Mr. Biden took stock in an election that went surprisingly well for his party, proclaiming he had lost fewer seats in the House than any Democratic president in his first midterm since John F. Kennedy.

This is what Republican politicians and commentators are saying about the election results.

Donald Trump at his election night party at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. He has a history of repeatedly defying those who said he was finished.Credit...Josh Ritchie for The New York Times

It’s a storied American ritual: Two years in, a president whose party just got shellacked hauls himself before the White House press corps to confront his accusers.

President Biden, Houdini-like, escaped that fate on Wednesday with a jaunty news conference before heading off for a planned trip to Indonesia. “It was a good day for democracy,” he said, “and I think a good day for America.”

Instead of Democrats, it is Republicans who are now discussing a reckoning — an outcome few expected on Monday. The On Politics newsletter spoke with Representative Peter Meijer, a Michigan Republican who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, and took a look at Republican reactions from the Capitol and in the news media.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/11/10/putin-will-not-go-to-g20-summit_6003649_4.html

Putin will not go to G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia

The decision not to attend the summit next week comes as Moscow is suffering losses in its war in Ukraine.

Le Monde with AFP

Published on November 10, 2022 at 04h37, updated at 07h43 on November 10, 2022

Time to 1 min.

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his speech at a ceremony to mark the 75th anniversary of Russian Federal Medical-Biological Agency in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. SERGEI GUNEYEV / AP

Russian president Vladimir Putin will not attend the G20 leaders' summit on the Indonesian resort island of Bali next week, Moscow's embassy in Indonesia told AFP on Thursday, November 10. "I can confirm that (foreign minister) Sergei Lavrov will lead the Russian delegation to the G20. President Putin's program is still being worked out, he could participate virtually," said Yulia Tomskaya, the embassy's chief of protocol.

US president Joe Biden, who has called Mr. Putin a "war criminal", previously said he had no intention of meeting Putin at the summit if he attended.

The decision, which follows months of speculation, comes as Moscow is suffering losses in its Ukraine campaign and as the Kremlin tries to shield itself from Western condemnation at the November 15-16 summit.

Russia on Wednesday ordered its troops to withdraw from the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine in a further setback in the face of Kyiv's counter-offensive. Another source with knowledge of Russia's planning for the Bali event confirmed that Mr. Putin would be replaced by Lavrov. The person said it was unclear if the Russian leader would attend virtually.

Ron DeSantis just sent a BIG 2024 message

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 2230 GMT (0630 HKT) April 8, 2022

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 24, 2022, in Orlando.

(CNN)Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has raised more than $100 million for his 2022 reelection bid, a stunning sum that speaks as much to his national ambitions as it does to his prospects in the Sunshine State.

DeSantis is widely regarded as the biggest star not named "Donald Trump" within the Republican Party. He regularly runs second to Trump in 2024 straw polls and often wins them outright when Trump is not included.

And unlike many other Republicans mentioned as possible 2024 candidates, DeSantis has not said he would get out of the race to make way for Trump.

Which, of course, Trump has taken notice of. "I think that most of those people, and almost every name you mentioned, is there because of me," Trump told The Washington Post earlier this week about the potential field. "In some cases, because I backed them and endorsed them. You know Ron was at 3 percent, and the day I endorsed him, he won the race."

It's unclear what DeSantis makes of all of this. His 2022 reelection campaign gives him a convenient excuse to deflect all 2024 questions until after November. (Polling suggests he is a clear favorite for a second term in Republican-leaning Florida.)

But make no mistake: DeSantis and his allies very much meant to send a message with his fundraising totals. (According to CNN, he appears to be the first governor to break the $100 million mark in fundraising solely through donations.)

J’accuse…!J’accuse…J’accuse…!J’accuse…

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“In 1894, the Dreyfus affair came to light, and the thirty-five-year-old Jewish Alsatian Captain Alfred Dreyfus was accused of high treason. Despite the accused’s pleas of innocence, which were not made public, he was sentenced to life imprisonment on Devil’s Island in French Guiana.”

— J’accuse…!!!!

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The only things we count on is that inmaterial called —-soul—- Let us never be afraid to speak the thrut…Justice will always be done…

Germán & Co…

LIVE… News… Today, November 9, 2022

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“
The stock market wavers as midterm results remain unclear.”

— NYT

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Midterms Live Updates: No Signs of ‘Red Wave’ as Race for Congress Remains Tight

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democrat, beat Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, flipping a Senate seat. J.D. Vance won for Republicans in Ohio. But control of the House and Senate still hangs in the balance.

John FettermanWon, Pennsylvania Senate

1. Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

2. Kathy HochulWon, New York Governor

   Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

3. J.D. VanceWon, Ohio Senate

4. Stacey AbramsLost, Georgia Governor

   Gabriela Bhaskar for The New York Times

5. Sarah Huckabee SandersWon, Arkansas Governor

   Al Drago for The New York Times

6. Marco RubioWon, Florida Senate

   Associated Press

7. Tudor DixonLost, Michigan Governor

   Emily Elconin for The New York Times

8. Maggie HassanWon, New Hampshire Senate

   Jodi Hilton for The New York Times

9. Becca BalintWon, Vermont Representative

   Associated Press

10. Tim RyanLost, Ohio Senate

    Brian Kaiser for The New York Times

11. Brian KempWon, Georgia Governor

    Nicole Buchanan for The New York Times

12. Greg AbbottWon, Texas Governor

Jonathan Weisman

Here are the latest results from the pivotal midterm elections.

Control of Congress hung in the balance early Wednesday morning, with Democrats and Republicans closely monitoring yet-to-be-called Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, as well as a tight contest in Georgia that may be headed for a December runoff.

As the counting moved into Wednesday morning, it was fairly clear that Democrats had defied predictions of a midterm electoral drubbing, winning dozens of key House, Senate and governors’ races across the country and forestalling a “red wave” that Republicans said would define one of the most consequential midterm campaigns in recent memory.

But even with those disappointments, Republicans could emerge with majorities in both houses of Congress. To keep control of the Senate, Democrats need two of their endangered incumbents, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, to hold on to their leads (Mr. Kelly was leading his race early Wednesday, with 66 percent of the vote counted, while Ms. Cortez Mastro was trailing, with 75 percent of the ballots counted).

If only one of those two prevails, Democratic control will rest on either the last ballots in Georgia pushing Senator Raphael Warnock over the required 50 percent, or on a Dec. 6 runoff in that race that would captivate the country — much the way two Senate runoffs in Georgia in early 2021 determined the current Democratic majority.

On Tuesday, a hard-fought victory by Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, over the celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz flipped a Senate seat to Democrat from Republican. Two incumbent Democratic senators, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Michael Bennet of Colorado, won re-election decisively, according to The Associated Press, ending two races that were seen as potential harbingers for a Republican blowout.

But in Ohio and North Carolina, two Republicans endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump cruised to victory. The author and investor J.D. Vance defeated his Democratic challenger, Representative Tim Ryan, by six percentage points in Ohio, and Ted Budd won the North Carolina seat being vacated by the departing Richard Burr.

In the fight for the House, only one Democratic incumbent, Representative Elaine Luria of Virginia, had been defeated by early Wednesday. But her loss was matched by the defeat of a veteran Republican, Representative Steve Chabot, in Ohio. The G.O.P. also won two open House seats vacated by Democrats in Florida.

Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, the chairman of the House Democratic campaign arm, was in danger of losing his seat. But in other critical House races, endangered Democrats like Representatives Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Chris Pappas of New Hampshire retained their seats, according to The Associated Press.

With seats still in play in New York and several Western states, control of the House is anything but settled. It could take several days before the next House majority is clear. Here is a rundown of the most likely timeline.

Here is what else you need to know:

• Beyond the House and Senate, voters were determining which party would control 36 governorships and an array of critical state positions. Governors’ contests in New York and Pennsylvania and Senate races in Colorado and Washington all went to the Democrats. And in swing states, Democrats fared far better than expected. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, was re-elected in Michigan, as was Gov. Tony Evers in Wisconsin.

• All indications were that Republicans would end up with perhaps one of the weakest performances in decades by the out-of-power party against a first-term president’s party. The polarization of the country may have functioned as a check, as the passions of one side offset the other. But America leaves these midterms much as it entered: a fiercely divided country that remains anchored in a narrow range of the political spectrum.

• Inflation was a key issue in the race, leaving Democrats grasping for a response. But Mr. Trump’s influence saddled Republicans with weak candidates, and the Democratic base turned out in large numbers. Here are five takeaways from the elections.

• Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont chose to enshrine abortion protections in their state constitutions, indicating that, when asked directly, a broad cross section of Americans want to protect abortion access.

• Election Day appeared to have unfolded smoothly for millions of Americans, but in some communities, scattered problems were reported, including technical glitches that disrupted ballot counting in Arizona’s Maricopa County. In Nevada, election officials said that it could take days to count the votes because of a deluge of mail-in ballots.

Nov. 9, 2022, 7:09 a.m. ET1 hour ago

1 hour ago

Derrick Bryson-Taylor

The election in Colorado’s Third Congressional District was surprisingly tight, with Representative Lauren Boebert, a far-right provocateur who heckled President Biden during his State of the Union speech, locked in a close contest with Adam Frisch, a Democrat. The Associated Press has not called the race.

Nov. 9, 2022, 6:48 a.m. ET1 hour ago

1 hour ago

Joe Rennison and Chang Che

The stock market wavers as midterm results remain unclear.

Stocks slipped on Wednesday morning, as investors reacted to results from the U.S. midterm elections which featured high-profile victories for both parties, as overall control of the House and Senate remained uncertain.

Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, after posting small gains late on Tuesday which coincided with early Republican victories after the markets closed. The benchmark stock index eked out a 0.6 percent gain during regular trading hours on Tuesday.

Votes are still being counted and it may take days to get a clear picture of the result. According to the most recent projections, Republicans are favored to win control of the House while the Senate is leaning toward the Democrats.

Investors and analysts have said that divided government — where Democrats lose control of at least one chamber of Congress — could be positive for the stock market because it would probably limit any major legislation that could impact corporate profitability.

“You just have politicians stop doing stuff and generally the market likes that,” said James Masserio, the co-head of equities in the Americas for Société Générale.

However, past market moves after the midterms are less conclusive on what combination of control between Congress and the White House is best for markets. The S&P 500 has risen on the day after the last six midterm elections, and also posted gains in the year after the vote.

“Markets historically reward less uncertainty and split government,” Ben Laidler, the global markets strategist at eToro, wrote in a post-election report. “But it has potential for medium term pain, from uncertainty over the debt ceiling to recession spending.

The election is not the only thing on investors’ minds. Many have said that against a backdrop of high inflation, rising interest rates and tense geopolitics, the midterms have receded in importance. The next big event for investors comes on Thursday, when new data about inflation in the United States will steer expectations over how aggressively the Federal Reserve could be in raising interest rates, which raises costs for companies and dampens economic growth.

“There are these major forces that kind of drown out the election,” Mr. Masserio said.

Show more

Nov. 9, 2022, 5:55 a.m. ET2 hours ago

2 hours ago

Julie Brown

Counting all of the votes in Nevada could take days, election officials say.

Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, left, and Gov. Steve Sisolak at a Nevada Democratic election night party in Las Vegas on Tuesday.Credit...Mikayla Whitmore for The New York Times

Overwhelmed election officials in Nevada say that they have been flooded by thousands of mail-in ballots, and that it may take several days to count the votes and upload results.

Last year, the state began requiring that mail-in ballots be sent to every registered voter. While ballots must be postmarked by Election Day, they can be counted if they arrive as late as Saturday.

Elections officials have emphasized the need for patience and have not offered predictions on how quickly they will be able to offer tallies.

Jamie Rodriguez, the interim registrar of voters in Washoe County, said she was expecting roughly 16,000 mail-in ballots to arrive on Election Day. She said that those votes would not be counted until Thursday because poll workers were so behind.

“Understand that whatever results posted tonight, if there are close races, there are definitely still a large number of votes to be counted,” Ms. Rodriguez said on Tuesday night.

And even the results that have come in came slowly. Nevada does not post its results until the last voter in the state casts a ballot, and the polls did not officially close until after 9 p.m. local time. Tallies did not start coming in until late Tuesday, after many contests on the East Coast had already been called.

Long waits and continuous warnings from elections officials did not prevent the candidates in a competitive race for a Nevada Senate seat from projecting confidence about their standing. Early Wednesday morning, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, was slightly behind her Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt.

“We have a lot of our votes coming in all across the state, yet to be tabulated,” Mr. Laxalt said on election night at a party in Las Vegas. “We are going to win this race.”

“We had people voting in the snow and then the rain because they want a better Nevada and a better America,” he added. “Unfortunately, we’re in for a long night and maybe a few days into this week as all the votes are tabulated.”

Ms. Cortez Masto was also upbeat, but made the situation clear: “We won’t have results for several days.”

The lag means Nevadans will also have to wait for results in other competitive state races, including the governor’s race between the incumbent, Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and his Republican challenger, Joe Lombardo. Mr. Lombardo held a narrow lead early Wednesday morning.

Show more

Nov. 9, 2022, 5:20 a.m. ET3 hours ago

3 hours ago

Derrick Bryson-Taylor

The Associated Press has stopped calling races and will resume at 9 a.m. Eastern.

Nov. 9, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET3 hours ago

3 hours ago

Luis Ferré-Sadurní

After her historic win, Hochul must govern over a fractured New York electorate.

Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday became the first woman to be elected governor of New York.Credit...Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

For Gov. Kathy Hochul, a second historical milestone was clearly in her grasp: Nearly 15 months after she unexpectedly became New York’s first female governor, she was about to be the first woman in the state to be elected to the position.

But her victory on Tuesday proved harder to secure than most had expected.

Ms. Hochul led Representative Lee Zeldin, her Republican challenger, by roughly five percentage points with roughly 93 percent of the vote counted — a wider gap than some had braced for in the final weeks of the race, but still what would be the narrowest margin in a New York governor’s race in nearly three decades.

Mr. Zeldin managed to gain unforeseen traction in one of the most liberal states in the nation by mounting a campaign that was almost singularly focused on crime, allowing him to close in on Ms. Hochul and make significant inroads among suburban and independent voters, as well as some disaffected Democrats.

Governor Hochul ultimately managed to repel Mr. Zeldin’s late momentum, recalibrating her campaign in the final two weeks of the race. She increased her time in New York City as she sought to animate her base of Democratic voters; changed the focus of her political messaging and talked more often about public safety; and drew a star-studded lineup of Democrats to New York to rally around her as labor unions also flocked to her aid.

Still, the uncertainty and last-minute scramble in the race, particularly unusual in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor in 20 years, led to scrutiny over how Ms. Hochul ran her campaign.

She ran an expensive operation, significantly outspending Mr. Zeldin and nearly depleting her record-breaking $50 million campaign war chest on a constellation of television ads that sought to portray him as too extreme. She spent many months focusing on Mr. Zeldin’s anti-abortion stance before shifting her message toward crime in the race’s final stages, raising questions about whether that should have been her focus from the beginning.

And she appeared to lack a sufficiently strong ground game to energize Democratic voters, especially in Black and Latino communities, as Democratic operatives noted a dearth of the typical election-season lawn signs and mailers.

Lee Zeldin, with his family on election night, chose not to concede as he addressed supporters in Midtown Manhattan.Credit...James Estrin/The New York Times

For Ms. Hochul, the question now is whether the election results — Democrats also lost seats in the state’s House delegation and the State Legislature — will influence her leadership and agenda in her first full four-year term as governor.

It remains unclear how Ms. Hochul will seek to appeal to a New York electorate that, judging from the results on Tuesday, appears increasingly fractured, potentially resembling the polarization seen elsewhere in the nation. In a midterm election that was seen as a national rebuke of Democrats, the governor’s race in New York underscored deep fissures and discontent among voters concerned about public safety and an affordability crisis, especially in the suburbs of Long Island and in pockets of New York City.

Some Democrats have already begun to theorize that the governor might lurch slightly to the right in her policies as she seeks to respond to the unrest among voters.

If she does, it could set the stage for increased tension between the more left-leaning Democrats who control the State Legislature and Ms. Hochul, whose views on issues around gun rights and immigration have turned increasingly liberal over the years.

“I think the end result will be a somewhat more moderate Kathy Hochul, which I think squares with where she actually is, which is a bit of a common sense, moderate Democrat,” said Chris Coffey, a Democratic political strategist. “I do think it sets up more of a showdown with the governor and the more progressive parts of the State Senate.”

In her victory speech on Tuesday, Ms. Hochul ticked off broad commitments she had made during her campaign, including promises to build more affordable housing, make subways safe, tackle illegal guns and protect abortion rights.

“I will lead with strength and compassion, not anger and fear,” Ms. Hochul said before confetti cannons erupted at her watch party in Lower Manhattan, adding that “the lesson of tonight’s victory is that given the choice, New Yorkers refused to go backward in our long march toward progress.”

Ms. Hochul, a Democrat from Buffalo, ascended to New York’s highest office in August 2021, replacing former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo after he resigned in scandal. A virtual unknown to most New Yorkers, Ms. Hochul was a former Erie County clerk before serving in Congress and later becoming Mr. Cuomo’s lieutenant governor in 2015.

His sudden resignation put Ms. Hochul in charge of a state traversing a pandemic and spikes in crime, and she moved swiftly to overhaul the Cuomo administration and build more collaborative relationships in Albany, while rushing to assemble an election campaign.

She immediately established herself as a furious and formidable fund-raiser, building a monumental stockpile of campaign funds that helped her easily defeat two Democratic primary rivals in June.

But even then, some top Democrats raised concerns that Ms. Hochul was not doing enough to engage with New York City’s minority communities, a crucial bloc of voters she would have to turn out to win.

Indeed, given the nature of her ascendance, Ms. Hochul faced a shortened time period to introduce herself to voters after serving mostly in the shadow of Mr. Cuomo as lieutenant governor.

Image

Ms. Hochul appeared to step up her ground game as Election Day neared, making more appearances with voters, especially in New York City.Credit...Jeenah Moon for The New York Times

Yet in her campaign, the governor largely stuck to attack ads that played up fears of how Mr. Zeldin would weaken gun safety laws and erode women’s rights, as she hoped to increase turnout among women. She emphasized her record of achievement during her short tenure, but appeared to miss an opportunity to promote her back story or delineate a detailed policy vision for the state.

“She didn’t have four years before, she had an accidental first year,” said State Senator Liz Krueger, a Democrat from Upper Manhattan. “I’m not really sure we can say this is Kathy Hochul, this is her agenda for running the State of New York, these are her goals and dreams, and then is it influenced by Zeldin in one way or the other?”

Those worries were amplified by some anxious Democratic officials in the final weeks of the race who rushed to her aid as Mr. Zeldin continued to chip away at Ms. Hochul’s once-commanding lead in public polls, drawing thousands of supporters to some of his rallies and raising the specter of a potential upset.

Ms. Hochul also had to contend with about $16 million spent by super PACs, spearheaded by a billionaire Republican donor, that financed a barrage of ominous-looking ads that sought to blame the governor for nearly all aspects of crime in New York, and days of scathing front covers published by the right-leaning New York Post.

Few dispute that the national dissatisfaction with Democrats clearly permeated the governor’s race, playing an outsize role even in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one.

“There was a natural passion on the Republican side that has been percolating,” said Charlie King, a Democratic consultant and former candidate for lieutenant governor. “I didn’t think that abortion was going to drive people to the polls the way that Republican anger was going to drive people to the polls. The race was always going to tighten into the end.”

Image

In places like Chester, N.Y., Mr. Zeldin was able to attract hundreds of supporters who responded to his campaign message of how the state was spiraling out of control.Credit...Gregg Vigliotti for The New York Times

As the race drew closer and Election Day neared, Ms. Hochul was forced to change gears to avoid a potentially humiliating defeat.

She temporarily dispatched her government chief of staff, Stacy Lynch, to help coordinate the campaign, which was run mostly by high-paid, out-of-state consultants. In a sign that she may have miscalculated her initial messaging strategy, Ms. Hochul all but abandoned her previous focus on protecting a woman’s right to an abortion and pivoted to crime.

A high-profile lineup of Democratic politicians was called in at the 11th hour to campaign with the governor, including President Biden and former President Bill Clinton, as well as Hillary Clinton. And a scattershot of get-out-the-vote rallies were organized across the city, while Ms. Hochul made back-to-back visits to Black churches, where she usually spoke about her upbringing and campaign message in more personal terms.

“A victory is a victory, even if it’s one point, so you take it,” said Laura Curran, the former Democratic county executive of Nassau County. “Something that the governor said to me early on was that she was used to being underestimated.

“She was certainly underestimated in this campaign, and she made it.”

Show more

Nov. 9, 2022, 4:02 a.m. ET4 hours ago

4 hours ago

Mitch Smith and Ava Sasani

Michigan, California and Vermont affirm abortion rights in state ballot proposals.

Image

Abortion-rights supporters in California rallied in Long Beach before Election Day.Credit...Damian Dovarganes/Associated Press

Voters in California, Michigan and Vermont chose to enshrine abortion protections in their state constitutions on Tuesday, The Associated Press said.

A vote in Kentucky on whether to amend the State Constitution to say there was no right to abortion was too close to call as of early Wednesday.

The results in the three other states, which came just months after the U.S. Supreme Court removed the constitutional right to abortion, showed that when asked directly, a broad cross section of Americans want to protect abortion access.

Abortion also appeared to shape results in some candidate races. Across the country, Democratic politicians emphasized their support for legal abortion on the campaign trail, while many Republicans opposed to abortion tried to focus voters on other issues.

The amendments marked a victory for abortion rights supporters, who since losing in the Supreme Court this summer have sought to preserve or restore access to the procedure through a series of lawsuits, ballot initiatives and legislative fights.

Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, a Democrat who won re-election on Tuesday, said it was “a point of pride” that abortion was now protected in the State Constitution.

“It’s a point of principle and it’s a point of contrast,” he said, “at a time of such mixed results all across this country.”

Abortion-rights supporters have increasingly looked to ballot questions as a way to advance their interests, even in Republican-leaning places. In August, in the first major political test of abortion after Roe v. Wade fell, Kansas voters overwhelmingly rejected a constitutional amendment that would have ended abortion protections at the state level. That result in a conservative-leaning state was seen by national Democrats as a sign of the issue’s political potency and an opening for their candidates in November.

But as the Supreme Court decision began to fade from the headlines, Republicans who support abortion restrictions tried to shift the political conversation to more favorable ground like economic issues and crime.

In Michigan, the vote on whether to place abortion protections in the State Constitution played out at the same time as a high-stakes governor race. Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic incumbent, made support for abortion rights central to her campaign. She won re-election, The Associated Press said.

A rally for Michigan Democrats and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer on Sunday.Credit...Brittany Greeson for The New York Times

The Michigan amendment is likely to have the most immediate impact. A state law that was dormant for decades while Roe was in effect bans abortion, but enforcement of that measure had been temporarily blocked by the courts.

Lisa Baldwin-Ryan, 58, voted in favor of the amendment despite her complex views on abortion.

“I am totally against people who use it as a form of birth control, but not everybody is strong enough to carry a child if they’re a victim of rape and incest — therefore, why should they be forced?” said Ms. Baldwin-Ryan, who supported the Libertarian candidate for governor.

Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life, which opposes abortion rights, said early Wednesday that Michigan voters would experience “buyer’s remorse” after passing the amendment.

In Kentucky, a reliably Republican state that is among many in the South with abortion bans, residents were still split as of early Wednesday. The vote on whether to amend the Constitution to say it contained no right to abortion came just a week before the State Supreme Court was scheduled to hear a challenge to Kentucky’s abortion ban.

JoAnn Lewis, 63, of Lexington, Ky., said she favored the amendment.

“Life, once it is seeded, it needs to grow just like a garden — you’ve got to protect it,” Ms. Lewis said at a polling place.

But Samia Temsah-Deniskin, 38, said she voted against the amendment “because women should choose what happens with their bodies.” Ms. Temsah-Deniskin, a photographer from Paris, Ky., said that she was pregnant and also has a daughter, and that “these rights are so important for women in particular.”

California and Vermont already had robust abortion protections in law. The votes on Tuesday provided the states with more durable bulwarks against any future anti-abortion legislation, but did little to change the immediate situation. With nearly all ballots counted, about 77 percent of Vermont voters favored the amendment.

In California, Sherman Jones, 54, said he considered the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling an affront to a woman’s right to privacy.

“I just think that’s something that individuals and their doctors need to decide and not politicians,” said Mr. Jones, who lives in Riverside County and voted to add abortion protections to the California Constitution.

In Montana, where abortion is legal, a ballot initiative requiring medical interventions to save those that the state defines as “born alive” infants had not been called as of early Wednesday.

Reporting was contributed by Sarah Baird, Corinne Boyer, Jill Cowan, Ryan Patrick Hooper and Shawn Hubler.

Nov. 9, 2022, 3:50 a.m. ET4 hours ago

4 hours ago

Rick Rojas

Votes on ballot measures reflect the nation’s divisions.

Image

Voters in College Park, Md., on Tuesday.Credit...T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York Times

Voters in Maryland and Missouri approved ballot measures on Tuesday to legalize recreational marijuana, according to The Associated Press, adding those states to a list that has swelled in recent years. But similar efforts were also shot down in Arkansas and North Dakota — a mixed result that underscored the varying public attitudes over marijuana use.

Those measures were among the many initiatives that appeared on ballots across the country on Tuesday — an exercise in direct democracy that has offered an unfiltered glimpse into voters’ stances on some of the most pressing and polarizing issues, including voting rights, gun restrictions and abortion access.

The early results according to The Associated Press have, in many ways, reflected the deep fissures running through the country.

Measures related to voting were under consideration in several states, with some pursuing restrictions meant to bolster election security and others pushing to expand and protect access amid fears of a concerted campaign to weaken the country’s election systems. Many of these measures could be traced to former President Donald J. Trump’s efforts to overturn his loss and mobilize his supporters by spreading baseless claims of a stolen election.

Voters in Ohio approved an initiative aimed at thwarting any attempt to allow people who are not U.S. citizens from voting in local elections. The proposal was meant to counter efforts elsewhere, including in New York City, to allow permanent legal residents and people authorized to work in the United States to vote in city-level races. A similar proposal is up for a vote in Louisiana on a Dec. 10 ballot.

In Nebraska, roughly two-thirds of voters supported a measure to require photo identification to vote.

Voters in Michigan supported adding measures to the state constitution, including opening polls for early voting, meant to make it easier to cast ballots.

In Connecticut, a measure to allow in-person early voting was passed.

In Iowa, voters, by a wide margin, supported an initiative enshrining gun rights in an amendment to the State Constitution that declares that residents’ ability “to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

Voters in Tennessee and Vermont resoundingly supported ballot measures that remove language allowing slavery as punishment from their state constitutions. In Alabama, more than three-quarters of voters endorsed changes to the State Constitution that removed outdated and racist language, including language related to slavery.

But in Louisiana, nearly two-thirds of voters rejected a proposal that would have removed language from the State Constitution allowing slavery as punishment.

These measures to forbid slavery or involuntary servitude as punishment have gained traction across the country in recent years, creating an opening for prisoners to challenge the practice of forced labor for which they are paid pennies per hour or nothing at all.

Show more

Nov. 9, 2022, 3:34 a.m. ET5 hours ago

5 hours ago

Ava Sasani

Voters in Michigan voted in favor of abortion rights, The Associated Press said, amending their State Constitution to create a right to reproductive freedom, including decisions “about all matters relating to pregnancy,” such as abortion and contraception.

Nov. 9, 2022, 3:30 a.m. ET5 hours ago

5 hours ago

Nate Cohn

While Republicans remain modest favorites in the House, it could be days or even longer until there’s enough information to be sure whether Republicans gained control of the chamber. Republicans are still 22 seats away, and many of the seats they need are in slow-counting western states.

Nov. 9, 2022, 3:20 a.m. ET5 hours ago

5 hours ago

Maggie Astor

Reporting from New York

Representative Elissa Slotkin, a moderate Democrat, was re-elected in the Seventh District of Michigan, according to The Associated Press, defying the district's tilt toward Republicans. The Republican candidate, Tom Barrett, had sought to cast her as a progressive in centrist’s clothes.

Nov. 9, 2022, 2:53 a.m. ET5 hours ago

5 hours ago

J. David Goodman

Across Texas, neither a red wave nor a blue one.

Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas won re-election on Tuesday.Credit...Christopher Lee for The New York Times

HOUSTON — The familiar contours of Texas politics held firm for another election despite a concerted effort and many millions in campaign spending aimed at proving otherwise.

As the votes came in on Tuesday, Democrats remained locked out of statewide offices — from the governor’s mansion to the agriculture commissioner’s office — and Republicans could point to some gains among Hispanic voters, winning an open congressional seat in South Texas, though fewer than they had hoped for.

China's exports and imports fall simultaneously for the first time since the start of covid-zero policy…

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“Exports lost -0.3% on an annual basis, down sharply from 5.7% in September, and imports fell -0.7% after rebounding 0.3% in the previous month. Weak supply and demand coincide in this downturn. On the one hand, global trends such as stifling inflation, rising interest rates and the generalised stagnation of the global economy.”

— abc.es

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Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…

 

Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…

Editor's Pick:

China's economic engine grinds to a halt

How China curbed global inflation and why it will stop doing so

Factory in China AFP

Jaime Santirso

JAIME SANTIRSO

Correspondent in Beijing

08/11/2022

Updated at 13:09h.

There is no end in sight for the covid-zero policy that for more than two and a half years has kept China isolated from the world and subjected to the virus. In the meantime, the social discontent and economic costs are piling up, forming a mixture of uncertain evolution. Unlike the first ingredient, silenced as befits an authoritarian regime, the second is ponderable.

The Asian giant's exports and imports entered negative territory during the month of October, according to figures released yesterday by the customs authorities. This is the first simultaneous fall since May 2020, when the pandemic that emerged in Wuhan began to spread the disaster across the planet.

Exports lost -0.3% on an annual basis, down sharply from 5.7% in September, and imports fell -0.7% after rebounding 0.3% in the previous month. Weak supply and demand coincide in this downturn. On the one hand, global trends such as stifling inflation, rising interest rates and the generalised stagnation of the global economy.

On the other, the incessant restrictions at home, exemplified these days by the flight of workers from the Zhengzhou factory of Foxconn, Apple's supplier, in the face of a resurgence. As a result, the US company has already announced delays in deliveries of its iPhone 14. Not even the devaluation of the yuan, which makes operations cheaper, has balanced the circumstances for Chinese exporters. Partial shutdowns in Guangzhou, a manufacturing hub and home to 19 million people, could aggravate the situation.

"We expect exports to continue to decline over the coming quarters as the global economy enters recession," Capital Economics said in a report following the release of the customs data. "Import volumes declined again last month after falling significantly over the course of the year, and are likely to continue to do so in the face of the complex domestic backdrop.

Overseas remittances are the engine that keeps the ailing economy going, so their slowdown will add to the pressure. China's GDP grew by 3.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, which puts the partial figure for the year so far at 3%: well below previous years and the official target of "around 5%", which is already unattainable. The reality hidden by the government figures could turn out to be even more unfortunate. "If they resort to 3% to lie, things must be very bad," said a well-known academic during a private conversation.

The true cost of cheap: the other side of Chinese giant Shein

The true cost of cheapness: the other face of the Chinese giant Shein

LUIS GARCÍA LÓPEZ

China's exports and imports fall simultaneously for the first time since the start of covid-zero policy prices.

In the short term, there is no prospect of the situation changing. Xi Jinping reiterated the validity of his covid-zero policy during the 20th Congress, before becoming the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Stock markets then reacted with huge losses to the personalist path of the world's second largest economy. A week later, last week, they jumped in the opposite direction on rumours that the authorities had begun to draw up a plan for the reopening. For the time being, the rumours were unfounded, as on Saturday the government maintained its strategy unchanged.

China is currently experiencing its highest number of cases in six months. The authorities today reported 7,475 infections in the last twenty-four hours, a modest figure in global terms but alarming in the context of China. And they are moving fast: the previous day it was 5,496. The country has not reached similar levels since 1 May, when Shanghai was under house-to-house confinement and Beijing was under almost complete restrictions. Several areas of the capital have already ordered the suspension of classes in schools.

China's voracious fishing ravages the seas, Russia wants to follow in its footsteps

Europe to become a net importer of cars by 2025

At the same time, public frustration is growing, spurred on by controversial cases such as the death of a three-year-old boy who did not make it to hospital in time because of the restrictions or a woman who jumped out of the window of her house in Hohhot after more than a month of quarantine. The end of the covid-zero policy, however, remains a mystery. As the trade balance shows, huge amounts of money depend on it. And a lot of other things as well.

News round-up, Tuesday, November 8, 2022.

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“The hardest-hit country was Greece, where 68% of respondents said their spending power had fallen “a lot” or “somewhat” since 2019, followed by 63% in France, 57% in Italy, 54% in Germany, 48% in Britain and 38% in Poland.”

— The Guardian...

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Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…

 

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https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/11/07/germany-s-scholz-warns-against-fossil-fuel-renaissance_6003298_114.html

Germany's Scholz warns against fossil fuel 'renaissance'

The German Chancellor issued the warning during a speech at COP27, insisting Germany would not fall back on fossil fuels despite a lack of Russian energy imports.

Le Monde with AFP

Published on November 7, 2022 at 20h49, updated at 08h23 on November 8, 2022

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during COP27 NARIMAN EL-MOFTY / AP

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday, November 7, urged COP27 participants not to lose sight of renewable energy targets despite the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"There must not be a worldwide renaissance of fossil fuels," Mr. Scholz said in a speech at the climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. "And for Germany I can say: there will not be one," he said.

COP27: 'Choose climate solidarity or collective suicide,' UN chief warns world leaders

Europe's largest economy has been squeezed hard as Russian energy imports have dwindled and prices have risen following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Long reliant on imports from Moscow to meet its energy needs, Germany has scrambled to shore up its supplies in the face of potential winter shortages.

As a result, officials had made the decision to restart mothballed coal power plants "for a short time", Mr. Scholz said. Germany would "stick to our exit from coal", the chancellor assured, with Berlin targeting a complete end for the fossil fuel in 2030.

COP27: Climate ambition hit by war

As well as falling back on coal, Germany has invested billions into new infrastructure for the import of natural gas from new sources, such as the United States or Qatar. Such liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals will in time be retrofitted for the import of hydrogen, officials say.

The pressure Russia has been able to exercise by cutting supplies showed that the transition away from fossil fuels was a "security policy imperative", the chancellor said. Less global warming meant "fewer droughts and floods, fewer conflicts over resources, less hunger and fewer bad harvests – and more security and well-being for all", he said.

Germany would up its investments in international environmental programs, Mr. Scholz said, bringing the total to €6 billion.

Funds for the protection of forests alone through 2025 would be doubled to 2 billion, the development ministry said. The money will mostly be invested via partnership programs with countries such as Brazil, Ecuador, Madagascar and Pakistan, according to the ministry.

Russia’s heavy casualties in Ukraine spark outcry and rare official response

By Mary Ilyushina

and

Annabelle Timsit

November 7, 2022 at 6:24 p.m. EST

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of the far eastern Primorsky region in September. Casualties among members of the 155th Brigade, which is normally based in Kozhemyako's region, have been high, prompting rare public outcry. (Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/Kremlin/AP)

RIGA, Latvia — Steep Russian casualties in key battles in eastern Ukraine have prompted an unusual public outcry — and sharp criticism of military commanders — by surviving soldiers, and family members of recently conscripted fighters, who say their units were led to slaughter in poorly planned operations.

The uproar over battlefield losses near Vuhledar in the Donetsk region prompted an official statement from the Russian Defense Ministry, which sought to play down the reportedly high death toll among soldiers in the 155th Separate Guards Marine Brigade, which led Moscow’s offensive in the area.

It was the first time since the start of Russia’s invasion that the ministry has officially responded to reports of mass casualties and criticism of commanders on Telegram, the main platform used by officials as well as by reporters and bloggers covering the Russian war.

Criticizing the war — or even calling it a war rather than a “special military operation” — is illegal in Russia. But the Kremlin in recent months has tolerated criticism of the military’s poor performance by pro-war hawks who back the invasion, including some demanding even more brutal tactics in Ukraine.

On Sunday, pro-Kremlin military correspondents posted the text of a letter sent by the members of the 155th Brigade, which is normally based in Russia’s Far East, decrying the order that sent them into what they called “an incomprehensible offensive” in the village of Pavlivka, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

“As a result of the ‘carefully’ planned offensive by the ‘great generals,’ we lost about 300 people killed, wounded and missing as well as half the equipment in four days,” the letter said. It was addressed to Gov. Oleg Kozhemyako of the Primorsky region, which lies on the coast of the Sea of Japan.

Nearly 6,000 miles away, in eastern Ukraine, the weather had turned for the worse in Pavlivka, with rain muddying the roads and making reinforcement of troops in the area even more difficult, the commander of the pro-Russian Vostok battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky, wrote on Telegram over the weekend.

“My fears about Pavlivka were justified,” Khodakovsky said, adding that he felt the advancement in the area initiated by Russian commanders had been “premature.”

The letter also specifically criticized Rustam Muradov, the commander of Russia’s Eastern Military District, who was appointed in October. Earlier in the war, Muradov led the Vostok grouping of forces, which was responsible for operations in eastern areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Officially, the military did not give the reason for the reassignment, but it came after the Russian military suffered a defeat in Lyman, a key logistics and supply hub in Donetsk area. The embarrassing defeat in occurred a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Donetsk and three other Ukrainian regions to be annexed by Russia — a violation of international law.

The Russian chain of command has appeared to be in constant disarray throughout the war as Moscow repeatedly switched overall commanders and replaced top generals in all four of its military districts.

Most recently, Russian media reported that Col. Gen. Alexander Lapin no longer runs the Central Military District after he was repeatedly bashed by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Putin’s ally and the financier of Wagner mercenary group, over strategic missteps and the poor performance of his troops.

The governor, Kozhemyako, at first dismissed the letter as a “potential fake planted” by Ukrainians but later issued a video message saying he had contacted the officers on the front line who confirmed there had been heavy fighting and losses, but, he said, “the number is as not as high as it’s written in this letter.”

“Due to the competent actions of the commanders, the losses among the marines over this period do not exceed 1 percent of the combat personnel and 7 percent of the wounded, a significant part of whom have already returned to duty,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in its statement, issued on Monday.

The ministry added that the 155th Brigade had been fighting near the regional hub of Vuhledar for more than 10 days and advanced “five kilometers deep into Ukrainian positions.”

Many pro-war commentators in Russia have been urging the ministry to be more transparent about its defeats. But rather than mollify these critics, the statement only inflamed their anger by minimizing the extent of the losses.

“So far it looks like that the military, having noticed another impending wave of discontent, decided to quickly subcontract the authorities of the region to their side and marginalize the whole situation, once again pretending that nothing is happening,” wrote a popular blogger who writes under the moniker Military Informer. “We hope this situation will change.”

Moscow’s top brass are also now trying to fend off another public scandal after residents of Voronezh, a city in a strategic Russian region near the Ukrainian border, complained that recently conscripted men from the region had been sent unprepared to Svatove, a town in the Luhansk region that has been the site of fierce battles. Hundreds may have died, according to Russian outlet Verstka.

“For three days they were under shelling, they tried to survive the best they could … they had no food and no sleep, they held up for three days and didn’t flee, unlike their commanding officers,” Inna Popova, the wife of a soldier, said in a video address recorded by the soldiers’ family members, and posted by Verstka.

“Please help us rescue our mobilized [men] and remove them from the first line of defense,” Popova said, adding that her husband had been mobilized on Oct. 12 and sent to Ukraine soon after.

Russian officials repeatedly asserted that the new conscripts, called up amid an unpopular mobilization effort initiated by Putin to replenish his army after several setbacks, would be tasked mainly with controlling already occupied areas and supporting the rear, and not to serve as the main advancing force.

Moscow took control of the Luhansk region early in the war, but its grip on the territory is under threat after Russian troops suffered a defeat near Kharkiv in September and lost Lyman, in the area Col. Gen. Lapin was responsible for, according to Russian media.

If Russia loses Svatove, Ukrainian forces probably will be able to advance further into Luhansk, regaining much of the territory that Putin claimed to be annexed and absorbed into Russia.

Verstka, citing family members, reported that men mobilized in Voronezh ended up on the front line after just a few days of training, probably a decision by their commanders aimed at closing the gaps in defensive lines and rotating out exhausted troops.

Two servicemen from the Voronezh region told Verstka that only a few dozen men from more than 500 solders in their unit have been accounted for since the intense shelling last week.

Pro-Kremlin Telegram channel “War on Fakes,” which is often quoted by the Defense Ministry, dismissed the reports as false.

The Voronezh region governor, Alexander Gusev, said Sunday that he had met with the family members who recorded the video address. Gusev’s press service did not refute reports of mass causalities, and a local news outlet deleted a report that had called the information fake.

“The situation is quite difficult in terms of finding objectivity, so we do not take responsibility for making such statements and discussing any figures and facts,” the press service told local pool journalists, according to a screenshot posted by a journalist in the pool.

Russia has officially sent a reinforcement of 50,000 mobilized men to Ukraine in recent weeks with at least another 250,000 soldiers still in training, Putin said Monday during a government meeting.

Russia and Ukrainian forces are each preparing for a bitter winter that will complicate virtually every aspect of the war, from logistics to morale to the physical health of the troops.

For Ukraine, the approaching cold weather will be increasingly difficult to brace after weeks of Russia attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.

In Kyiv, the capital, Monday passed in relative quiet without air raid sirens or damage from Russian missiles — a welcome change for residents who have grown used to Monday morning strikes over the past month.

But the attacks have forced authorities to plan blackouts around the capital and in other parts of the country to relieve the strain on the energy grid, and millions in the capital and its vicinity were without power overnight.

One in four Europeans say their financial position is ‘precarious’

Study by anti-poverty NGO shows more than half feel at financial risk and 80% have already made hard spending choices

Parents in particular are feeling the strain, the survey shows. Photograph: Anna Gowthorpe/PA

Jon Henley Europe correspondent

@jonhenley

Mon 7 Nov 2022 05.00 GMT

One in four Europeans describe their financial position as “precarious”, more than half see a serious risk it will become so over the coming months, and 80% have already been forced into hard spending choices, according to a survey.

Colder early winter in Europe could worsen cost of living crisis, say forecasters

As the cost of living crisis, driven by high energy prices, rampant inflation and Russia’s war on Ukraine, tightens its grip, the six-country survey for the French anti-poverty NGO Secours Populaire painted an alarming picture of “a continent on the brink”.

More than half (54%) of more than 6,000 people across France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland and the UK told the pollster Ipsos their purchasing power had fallen over the past three years – mostly due to higher food, fuel, heating and rent bills.

The hardest-hit country was Greece, where 68% of respondents said their spending power had fallen “a lot” or “somewhat” since 2019, followed by 63% in France, 57% in Italy, 54% in Germany, 48% in Britain and 38% in Poland.

About 80% of respondents said they had already been forced to make significant compromises, including cutting down on travel (62%) or heating (47%), borrowing from friends or family (42%), finding a second job (40%) and skipping a meal (29%).

Across the six countries, 64% said they were now “often” or “sometimes” unable to decide what to cut next as they had already cut what they could, 28% said they were overdrawn by mid-month, and 27% often or sometimes feared losing their home.

On average, about 27% of respondents across the six countries said their financial and material situation was “precarious”, defined as “one unexpected expenditure could change everything”, while 55% said they had to pay attention.

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Rising cost of living a worry for 77% of adults in Great Britain, says ONS

The future looked worse for many, however: a majority of Europeans (55%) said they felt they faced a very or somewhat significant risk of falling into precariousness over the coming months – with one in five (17%) assessing the possibility as very high.

Italians and Greeks were the most worried, with 70% and 68% respectively very or somewhat concerned. About 47% of respondents in Britain said they felt the risk of precariousness was significant, and 42% of those in France.

Parents in particular were feeling the strain, the survey showed. A large majority (72%) across the six countries said they had cut back on their own leisure activities (76%), hair and beauty treatments (72%) and clothes budget (72%) in order to preserve their children’s quality of life.

Almost half of parents (48%) across the six countries also said they regularly cut back on their own food to feed their children, while 66% said they had been forced to rein in their children’s activities, including outings and holidays.

On average, 49% – including 50% in the UK – of parents said they were worried about not being able to meet their children’s needs in future, while 33% said they were already unable to ensure their children’s diet was as varied as they would like.

The study showed striking differences between the countries in terms of which groups were deemed most at risk of falling into poverty: retirees in Germany (61%), younger people in Italy (57%), and in the UK, single-parent families (55%).

News round-up, Monday, November 7, 2022.

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“A joint venture of the German company Wintershall Dea delivers gas condensate to Gazprom. The Russian state-owned corporation in turn provides aviation fuel to two military bases believed to be behind air strikes that have been internationally criticized as possible war crimes.”

— Spiegel

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World is on ‘highway to climate hell’, UN chief warns at Cop27 summit

António Guterres tells leaders ‘global climate fight will be won or lost in this crucial decade – on our watch’

António Guterres speaking at the Cop27 summit in Egypt on Monday. Photograph: Mohammed Salem/Reuters

Fiona Harvey and Damian Carrington in Sharm El-Sheikh

Mon 7 Nov 2022 12.15 GMT

The Guardian

Humanity is on a “highway to climate hell”, the UN secretary general has warned, saying the fight for a liveable planet will be won or lost in this decade.

António Guterres told world leaders at the opening of the Cop27 UN climate summit in Egypt on Monday: “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.”

He said the world faced a stark choice over the next fortnight of talks: either developed and developing countries working together to make a “historic pact” that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions and set the world on a low-carbon path – or failure, which would bring climate breakdown and catastrophe.

“We can sign a climate solidarity pact, or a collective suicide pact,” he added.

He said the world had the tools it needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in clean energy and low-carbon technology.

“A window of opportunity remains open, but only a narrow shaft of light remains,” he said. “The global climate fight will be won or lost in this crucial decade – on our watch. One thing is certain: those that give up are sure to lose.”

Revealed: US and UK fall billions short of ‘fair share’ of climate funding

Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the president of Egypt, said in his opening address to the summit that poor and vulnerable people around the world were already experiencing the effects of extreme weather: “The intensity and frequency of climate disasters have never been higher, in all four corners of the world, bringing wave after wave of suffering for billions of people. Is it not high time today to put an end to this suffering?”

More than 100 heads of state and government from around the world gathered in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh on Monday for two days of closed-door meetings and public events to discuss the climate crisis.

Rishi Sunak, the British prime minister, will attend for one day, along with Olaf Scholz of Germany, Emanuel Macron of France, and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission. Joe Biden, the US president, will come later in the week, after the US midterm elections.

Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, will set out a new initiative on climate finance for the developing world, and African leaders including William Ruto of Kenya, Macky Sall of Senegal, and George Weah, the president of Liberia, are at the talks. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is also at the meeting.

From Wednesday, the world leaders will hand over to officials and ministers for the rest of the fortnight of talks. However, the summit promises to be a fraught and difficult one, with little chance of a breakthrough.

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Countries are meeting in the shadow of the war in Ukraine, a worldwide energy and cost of living crisis, and rising global tensions. Rich and poor countries are at loggerheads as big economies have failed to cut greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough, and the poorer countries bearing the brunt of the climate crisis are receiving little of the financial assistance they need and that has been promised.

The Cop27 conference got off to a slow start, with negotiators spending more than 40 hours over the weekend wrangling over what would be on the agenda. In the end, it was agreed that the vexed issue of loss and damage – which refers to the worst impacts of the climate crisis, which are too severe for countries to adapt to – would be discussed.

Poor countries suffering loss and damage want a financial mechanism that will give them access to funding when disasters such as hurricanes, floods and droughts strike, destroying their infrastructure and tearing apart their social fabric.

It is not likely that these talks will provide a final settlement on loss and damage, but countries are hoping for progress on ways of raising and disbursing finance.

At most UN climate summits, activists and protesters play a key role. However, Egypt clamps down on dissent and its jails are full of political prisoners. Sisi’s government has promised that climate activist voices will be heard, but their activities have been curtailed, with protesters kept at a separate site and required to register in advance to be granted permission for even minor demonstrations.

Republicans sue to disqualify thousands of mail ballots in swing states

Bytheustime24@gmail.com

November 7, 2022

Washington Post

Republican officers and candidates in a minimum of three battleground states are pushing to disqualify hundreds of mail ballots after urging their very own supporters to vote on Election Day, in what critics are calling a concerted try at partisan voter suppression.

In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Courtroom has agreed with the Republican Nationwide Committee that election officers shouldn’t rely ballots on which the voter uncared for to place a date on the outer envelope — even in instances when the ballots arrive earlier than Election Day. Hundreds of ballots have been put aside in consequence, sufficient to swing an in depth race.

In Michigan, Kristina Karamo, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, sued the highest election official in Detroit final month, looking for to toss absentee ballots not forged in individual with an ID, despite the fact that that runs opposite to state necessities. When requested in a current courtroom listening to, Karamo’s lawyer declined to say why the swimsuit targets Detroit, a closely Democratic, majority-Black metropolis, and never your entire state.

And in Wisconsin, Republicans won a court ruling that may stop some mail ballots from being counted when the required witness deal with will not be full.

Over the previous two years, Republicans have waged a sustained marketing campaign towards alleged voter fraud. Consultants say the litigation — which may considerably have an effect on Tuesday’s vote — represents a parallel technique of suing to disqualify mail ballots based mostly on technicalities. Whereas the rejections might have some foundation in state legislation, consultants say they seem to go towards a precept, enshrined in federal legislation, of not disenfranchising voters for minor errors.

The fits coincide with a scientific try by Republicans — led by former president Donald Trump — to influence GOP voters to forged their ballots solely on Election Day. Critics argue that the general objective is to separate Republicans and Democrats by technique of voting after which to make use of lawsuits to void mail ballots which might be disproportionately Democratic.

“They’re on the lookout for each benefit they will get, and so they’ve calculated that this can be a means that they will win extra seats,” mentioned Sylvia Albert, director of voting and elections for Widespread Trigger, a nonpartisan democracy advocacy group. “Analysis has proven that absentee ballots usually tend to be discarded if they’re voted by younger folks and other people of shade, which aren’t usually seen because the Republican base.”

Albert mentioned authorized battles over mail poll eligibility have the potential to delay outcomes and even change outcomes. In some instances, the disputes may wind up earlier than the U.S. Supreme Courtroom.

The potential for chaos is very excessive in Pennsylvania, the place the authorized combat is ongoing and will affect or postpone the result in a few of the state’s tightest races, together with a contest that would decide management of the U.S. Senate.

Republican Nationwide Committee spokeswoman Emma Vaughn mentioned in a press release that the committee sued in Pennsylvania “as a result of we’re merely asking for counties to comply with the state legislation, which by the way in which, dozens of Democrats supported.”

“We look ahead to persevering with our authorized actions to make sure that elections are administered in accordance with this bipartisan rule of legislation,” Vaughn added.

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) issued a press release Sunday evening during which he asserted that “no voter ought to be disenfranchised just because they made a minor error in filling out their poll.”

“This was not a controversial idea in our nation or our commonwealth till not too long ago, with the rise of the Huge Lie and the efforts to unfold mis- and disinformation within the days main as much as the final election,” Wolf continued. “I urge counties to proceed to make sure that each vote counts.”

Election officers are braced for a repeat of a protracted standoff following Pennsylvania’s Could major between state officers and three counties — Berks, Fayette and Lancaster — that refused to incorporate undated ballots of their licensed outcomes.

Wolf’s administration sued these counties in July to pressure them to incorporate the ballots, nearly all of which have been forged by Democrats, courtroom information present. In August, a state judge ordered the counties to incorporate “all lawfully forged ballots,” together with these with lacking dates, of their licensed outcomes.

Republicans then efficiently persuaded the state Supreme Courtroom to reverse that coverage for the final election in a choice launched final week. The state courtroom deadlocked on whether or not rejecting the ballots was a violation of voters’ federal civil rights.

Widespread Trigger and others shortly filed a federal swimsuit looking for to overturn the state courtroom ruling on the grounds that rejecting ballots over a technical error violates the Civil Rights Act. The case stays pending.

The date printed on the envelope of a mail poll is a “meaningless technicality” that has no bearing on officers’ capability to guage whether or not the poll has been forged on time by a certified voter, the criticism says.

The federal courts have already weighed in on the difficulty: Earlier this 12 months, the U.S. Courtroom of Appeals for the third Circuit discovered that failing to rely undated mail ballots is a violation of federal civil rights legislation. Nonetheless, the U.S. Supreme Courtroom injected uncertainty into the difficulty by vacating that call and instructing that the case be dismissed as moot as a result of the election in query had already handed.

Within the meantime, voting rights teams and others have launched a full-court press to inform voters throughout Pennsylvania whose ballots had been rejected and wanted to be mounted or changed. At the least 7,000 such ballots have been rejected statewide for quite a lot of causes, together with the lacking date, in response to information compiled by the Pennsylvania Division of State. Activists mentioned the determine might be a lot greater as a result of many counties have refused to publish the data.

In Philadelphia, the state’s largest metropolis and a Democratic bastion, greater than 2,000 such ballots have been rejected. Election officers posted lists of voters on-line with directions to return to Metropolis Corridor up by way of Election Day to forged a substitute poll. Nick Custodio, a deputy metropolis commissioner, mentioned in a phone interview {that a} regular trickle of residents confirmed up over the weekend to vote anew.

Shoshanna Israel, a coordinator with the liberal Working Households Social gathering in Philadelphia, mentioned her group assigned 49 volunteers to contact voters with ballots needing a repair. The group has contacted 1,800 voters since final Tuesday.

However not everybody could make it to Metropolis Corridor.

“I’m completely disabled,” mentioned Jean Terrizzi, 95, who was listed as having returned a poll with a lacking date. She added that she had an vital medical appointment on Monday and would simply need to “let it go” and never have her vote counted.

“This voting state of affairs is horrible,” she mentioned, declining to state her political affiliation. “It’s very disgraceful.”

Republicans additionally sued to dam counties from notifying voters who uncared for up to now their ballots to present them the prospect to repair them. The trouble failed, however counties might select whether or not to take action, that means not all voters will probably be given a chance to right poll errors.

Small numbers of votes may make a distinction within the form of shut races to which Pennsylvania has turn out to be accustomed.

“For those who can get rid of 1 p.c of the votes and so they are inclined to lean Democratic, then that offers you that statistical benefit,” mentioned Clifford Levine, a Pittsburgh-based election lawyer for Democrats.

“This isn’t about stopping fraud,” Levine mentioned. “It’s about discounting mail ballots. There’s simply no query.”

Republican candidates in Pennsylvania, together with gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, have been vocal in urging supporters to forged ballots on Election Day, not by mail.

Jeff Mandell, a Democratic election lawyer in Wisconsin, mentioned there was much less of a coordinated effort in that state to steer Republicans towards Election Day, though Trump made that pitch at an look this 12 months.

Underneath Wisconsin legislation, an absentee voter should discover a witness — often a partner, relative or buddy — to attest that the voter legally accomplished the poll. The witness should signal the poll envelope and supply an deal with.

Republicans efficiently sued this 12 months to toss steering from the Wisconsin Elections Fee permitting native election officers to fill in incomplete witness addresses on ballots. When voting rights teams sought new pointers on what lacking components within the deal with would enable for tossing a poll, judges dominated that it was too near the election to vary state coverage.

“There’s a concerted effort by the Republican infrastructure, the occasion, and others working with it, in addition to Republican leaders within the legislature, to undermine absentee voting and make it more durable for folks to vote that means,” Mandell mentioned.

How votes are cast and counted is increasingly decided in courtrooms

Wisconsin Republicans who spoke out in favor of the swimsuit mentioned state legislation is obvious that solely a voter might right an incomplete deal with.

“Lawless poll curing can’t and won’t be allowed to proceed,” Republican Senate Majority Chief Devin LeMahieu mentioned in a press release issued on the time. “We’re placing the complete weight of the legislature behind this lawsuit to close down [the Wisconsin Elections Commission’s] defiant and flagrant abuse of the legislation.”

Republicans and Democrats in Michigan say they assume the lawsuit introduced by Karamo, the GOP secretary of state nominee, has little likelihood of success. Democratic election lawyer Mark Brewer known as the Karamo lawsuit “racist, frivolous, and sanctionable.”

In a textual content change, Karamo lawyer Daniel Hartman mentioned the candidate, who’s Black, filed the swimsuit in Detroit partly due to what he described as the town’s historical past of election safety breaches. Karamo has been an outspoken proponent of the baseless declare that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

Even when the swimsuit fails, different challenges are taking part in out: In current days, county clerks throughout Michigan have acquired emails from organized teams making an attempt to dispute the eligibility of voters who requested or forged absentee ballots, suggesting there could possibly be extra litigation to return.

Tom Hamburger in Washington and Patrick Marley in Madison, Wis., contributed to this report.

A German Company's Questionable Involvement in Russia

A joint venture of the German company Wintershall Dea delivers gas condensate to Gazprom. The Russian state-owned corporation in turn provides aviation fuel to two military bases believed to be behind air strikes that have been internationally criticized as possible war crimes.

By Frederik Obermaier, Claus Hecking, Hans Koberstein, Ferdinand Kuchlmayr und Ruben Schaar

04.11.2022, 19.04 Uhr

Fueling the War: A German Company's Questionable Involvement in Russia - DER SPIEGEL

Clean Energy Park a New Visions of Energy World from Sweden…

Clean Energy Park a New Visions of Energy World from Sweden… | Energy Central

Frankrike bevisar dagligen att återvinning av SNF inte bara är genomförbart utan också en säker och prisvärd teknik som bör ingå i USA:s program för ren energi.

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Det har aldrig funnits ett bättre tillfälle än nu för USA att fortsätta med återvinning som en väg till att lösa SNF-frågan. Den nya regeringen har förklarat att den inte har för avsikt att återuppta arbetet med Yucca Mountain, så återvinning av kärnbränsle skulle inte skada de befintliga ansträngningarna där. Den andra stora kritiken - att få reaktorer kan använda reaktorplutonium - behandlas redan i DOE:s reaktordemonstrationsprogram.

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GERMAN TORO GHIO reputations score 5,387

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Frankrike bevisar dagligen att återvinning av SNF inte bara är genomförbart utan också en säker och prisvärd teknik som bör ingå i USA:s program för ren energi. Om USA menar allvar med att minska sina koldioxidutsläpp måste landet ta kärnkraften på allvar. Detta allvar börjar med en heltäckande lösning för SNF. Återvinning av kärnkraft skulle inte bara ge en värdefull energikälla, utan också signalera till världen att USA återtar sitt ledarskap inom ren energiproduktion.

(Nuclear power has a nuclear waste problem. Here's how to fix it. - Center for Security Policy)

Det har aldrig funnits ett bättre tillfälle än nu för USA att fortsätta med återvinning som en väg till att lösa SNF-frågan. Den nya regeringen har förklarat att den inte har för avsikt att återuppta arbetet med Yucca Mountain, så återvinning av kärnbränsle skulle inte skada de befintliga ansträngningarna där. Den andra stora kritiken - att få reaktorer kan använda reaktorplutonium - behandlas redan i DOE:s reaktordemonstrationsprogram.

Kongressen bör utforska återvinning av kärnkraft som ett genomförbart alternativ. Eftersom SNF-problemet skapades av regeringen kan det inte lösas enbart av privata företag. Kongressen kan börja med att inleda ett FoU-program, i likhet med de senaste årens program för avancerade reaktorer, för att stimulera innovation och få fram ny teknik för återvinning av kärnbränsle från nationella laboratorier till kommersiell utveckling.

Kongressen bör uppmuntra den privata sektorn att delta i ett eventuellt framtida offentlig-privat partnerskap i frågan. På så sätt skulle flera grupper med medarbetare från industrin, universitet och nationella laboratorier kunna presentera sina metoder och den bästa skulle väljas ut.

I all lagstiftning om kärnavfall bör man ge tillgång till NWF för att betala för utveckling, konstruktion och eventuell drift av en anläggning för återvinning av kärnavfall.

En omläggning av den befintliga fonden, som betalas av privata kunder, skulle ge en omedelbar finansieringskälla utan att kongressen behöver anslå medel. Det enda som behöver göras är att tillåta att en del av den ränta som för närvarande tillfaller fonden används för att stödja forskning och utveckling tills rätt teknik och utvecklare har identifierats.

Kongressen bör sträva efter att välja en plats efter förhandlingar med lokala myndigheter för att undvika att situationen i Nevada upprepas. En sådan "samtyckesbaserad lokalisering" bör fungera i USA på samma sätt som den har fungerat på andra håll. I gengäld för att stå som värd för anläggningen kan partnerstaten belönas med en årlig avgift - på samma sätt som den federala regeringen för närvarande betalar till företag i ansvarsfrågan. Detta kommer att ge delstaten en betydande inkomstkälla och samtidigt kompensera en del av de långsiktiga riskerna. Under tiden kan energidepartementet återuppta insamlingen av SNF-avfallet till NWF när det är konsoliderat.

På grund av de politiska förändringarna som har förstört den amerikanska kärnkraftsindustrin utgör byggandet av en anläggning för återvinning av kärnbränsle en oöverkomligt hög risk för privata investeringar. Eftersom nästan alla dessa risker skapas och förvärras av statlig politik, är statligt stöd avgörande för lösningen.

Att göra kärnkraftsåtervinning till ett statligt projekt riskerar dock att gå samma öde till mötes som den en gång så lovande, men förstörda MOX-anläggningen vid Savannah River. Utan statligt stöd är riskerna dock för extrema för privat kapital.

För att finansiera denna verksamhet utan att anslå ytterligare skattepengar bör kongressen utnyttja de befintliga och oanvända finansiella tillgångarna i kärnavfallsfonden. Den skulle kunna skapa en separat fond till vilken en del av den ränta som NWF tjänar in skulle kunna fördelas successivt under programmets gång. På så sätt kan man se till att tillräcklig finansiering upprätthålls utan partipolitiska ingripanden för att tillhandahålla en hållbar, koldioxidfri energiframtid.

HELP!!! Vulnerable countries demand compensation for a climate crisis that buries them in poverty…

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Manuel Planelles

MANUEL PLANELLES

Madrid - 06 NOV 2022 - 05:30Updated:06 NOV 2022 - 10:10 CET

On 28 February, just four days after the invasion of Ukraine, it was impossible to focus on anything other than the columns of Russian tanks advancing through the heart of Europe. But on 28 February, the IPCC, the international panel of experts that has provided the scientific basis for global warming for three decades, released a major report in which it concluded that "human-induced" climate change has already caused "widespread adverse impacts" on humans and nature. The document - which UN Secretary-General António Guterres called "an atlas of human suffering" - reviewed the negative effects "in all sectors and regions" of the planet. But he warned: not everyone is being hit equally by this crisis, with the worst being borne by highly vulnerable regions such as Africa, South Asia, Central and South America and the poorest small island states. Just one fact helps to understand this: "Between 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions compared to regions with very low vulnerability".

Eight months after that report and the beginning of an invasion that has no end in sight, the Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh is hosting the annual UN climate summit, COP27, starting this Sunday. It brings together the most vulnerable countries that have been battered by increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events due to climate change for which they are the least responsible and which threatens to curb their development possibilities. Over the next two weeks of negotiations, delegates from these nations of the so-called global south will try to get the richest countries - those historically responsible for warming - to commit in the most robust way to compensation formulas. They are asking for a specific fund or mechanism to be set up for what is known in climate diplomacy as "loss and damage". In other words, the irreversible impacts that are already occurring with the current level of warming, which averages 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.

This debate is of particular importance in a planet that will continue to warm and where extreme events will increase considerably, as science warns. But this debate has never been fully addressed in the three decades of climate negotiations since the first COP was held in Berlin in 1995. "Loss and damage has been the subject always postponed. There is no more time to postpone it," Guterres demanded this week. "Getting concrete results on loss and damage is the litmus test of governments' commitment," he added.

"It will be a central theme of the summit," admitted Wael Aboulmagd, the special ambassador appointed by the Egyptian presidency of COP27, on Friday. The negotiations of delegates from the nearly 200 countries participating in the summit begin on Sunday, but the informal opening will take place on Monday and Tuesday, when around 125 heads of state and government will take the floor, according to the COP presidency's estimates. Europe's top leaders will be there, and although US President Joe Biden will not be attending the opening, he will be attending the summit later next week on his way to the G20 meeting in Indonesia.

Not expected in Egypt are the leaders of China, India and Russia. The tension generated by the war in Ukraine and increasing friction between the United States and China, which now account for around 40 per cent of global emissions, are hampering progress on the big issues on the multilateral agenda. And the fight against climate change is no exception. At last year's summit in Glasgow, the US and China sealed a pact to make progress on some concrete measures, such as reducing methane emissions. But following tensions over the conflict in Taiwan, talks between the two countries were put on hold in August. Wael Aboulmagd denies, however, that this tension will spill over to the Egyptian summit. And John Kerry, the US special envoy for climate change, last week left the door open for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua in Sharm el-Sheikh.

At this summit, considered a transitional summit after last year's in Glasgow, the poorest countries arrive with a small initial goal: there is a broad consensus that the issue of loss and damage should be formally discussed among delegates, including, for example, the certain risk of some island states disappearing, the impacts caused by droughts and floods, and even climate migration. Among developed countries, reluctance has focused in recent years on opening the floodgates to claims whose outcome is uncertain.

Failures

Having to discuss loss and damage is, to a certain extent, the confirmation of humanity's failure to face the challenge of climate change, which has been on the table for more than three decades without a halt to the constant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, whose origin lies mainly in the fossil fuels that feed the global economy. These negotiations have two legs: mitigation (reducing gases to bring warming within safe limits) and adaptation (preparing societies for the already unavoidable effects of climate change). The rich nations' commitment was to help those with fewer resources in both areas by "mobilising" $100 billion a year from 2020. But 2020 came and that target was not met. According to calculations by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), only 83.3 billion dollars were reached by 2020.

The term mobilise includes public and private resources that reach developing countries through loans and non-repayable aid. But the result is that most of the money comes in the form of loans (only 21% in 2020 were grants). Moreover, only 34% of the funds (29 billion) were allocated to adaptation actions for the poorest nations to protect themselves against the ravages of global warming. To these OECD figures, the International Red Cross adds another: none of the world's 30 most vulnerable countries are among the top 30 recipients of adaptation funds per capita.

This failure of developed countries to deliver has sown mistrust in the climate negotiations in recent years. This is why Guterres calls for rebuilding "trust" between "North and South". He proposes something like "a historic pact between developed and emerging economies" for rich nations to help emerging countries to adapt and also to reduce emissions.

An elusive goal

Because the other point on which humanity is also off track is the reduction of greenhouse gases. The Paris Agreement, which came out of the COP held in 2015 in the French capital, established a safety limit: the average global temperature at the end of the century must not exceed 2 degrees Celsius and, as far as possible, 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But with warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius and countries' climate plans inadequate, the possibility of meeting the 1.5 target is already becoming remote.

If we are to have any chance of achieving that goal, the science says global emissions must be reduced by 45 per cent from 2010 levels by 2030. But the climate plans of the nearly 200 countries in the Paris Agreement will lead to a 10.6% increase in emissions by the end of this decade.

Last year's Glasgow summit ended with a call for countries to tighten their climate plans for this decade. And in the last 12 months 24 nations have done so, including China and India. The US and the European Union, for example, had updated their targets before Glasgow. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has analysed the set of plans to cut emissions and concludes that, if these pledges are met, the temperature rise would be between 2.4 and 2.6 degrees Celsius.

"It is still theoretically possible, but we are running out of time. If global emissions continue at current levels, the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees will disappear by the end of this decade," explains Anne Olhoff, one of the coordinators of the UNEP report. "That's why there can be no further delay in action and ambition. We already know that every fraction of a degree matters, which means that every tonne of emissions avoided matters," she adds.

THE COUNTRY

It matters, once again, when returning to the debate on loss and damage, because with every tenth of an increase, the negative impacts grow and do not hit everyone equally. The so-called V20 - a group of 58 developing nations considered highly vulnerable to climate change - this week released a report on the effects warming is already having on their territories. "The asymmetric impact deepens global inequalities and injustices. The poorest and most vulnerable nations are by far the hardest hit," the report concludes. And they are the least responsible. For example, these 58 V20 nations (which include Central African, Central American and at-risk Pacific nations) are home to some 1.5 billion people, about 20 per cent of the world's population, but emit only 5 per cent of global emissions. The same is true of the 54 African countries, which account for only 3-4% of global emissions. All of them "have contributed marginally" to global warming, the V20 concludes.

Clean Energy Park a New Visions of Energy World from Sweden…

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GERMAN TORO GHIO reputations score 5,239

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"In its 2022 report on the role of nuclear power in combating climate change, "Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions", the International Energy Agency (IEA) writes that "Nuclear power can help make the energy sector's journey away from unabated fossil fuels faster and more secure"."

— HTTPS://ENERGYCENTRAL.COM/C/GN/ACHIEVING-NET-ZERO-REQUIRES-BUILDING-ALL-LOW-CARBON-TECHNOLOGIES-INCLUDING-LOTS

With Clean Energy Park, Uniper introduce a new concept for the energy system of the future. The vision is to bring together small-scale and large-scale energy production in one place, where fossil-free power sources interact with each other to produce both electricity and hydrogen in an optimal way. So far, this is just a vision. But if all the conditions are in place, the Barsebäck plant could be a place where the concept is realised in the future.

At the moment, radiological demolition of the two reactors at the Barsebäck power plant is underway. The project is being carried out in parallel with the dismantling of the two oldest reactors at OKG outside Oskarshamn. The joint project is estimated to cost around SEK 10 billion, financed by the nuclear power companies themselves through annual allocations to the Nuclear Waste Fund. 

- The project is on schedule for both budget and time. Radiological demolition is now underway and should be completed by 2028. By carrying out decommissioning and demolition in a safe and responsible way, we are closing the life cycle of nuclear power. And leave room for a new generation of electricity production, says Åsa Carlson, CEO of Barsebäck Kraft AB.

New fossil-free and predictable power generation is needed in southern Sweden - which has hardly any power generation of its own, and where electricity prices are likely to be unusually high this winter. Svenska Kraftnät has warned of an increased risk of rotating disconnection this winter - that is, planned and scheduled power cuts if electricity production and imports are not sufficient at any one time.

New power generation needed in southern Sweden

Relying on imports from our neighbours does not guarantee security of supply over time. The lack of predictable electricity production is a consequence of permanent closure of power plants in southern Sweden, Germany and Denmark over a 20-year period - coal-fired power plants, thermal power plants and some 20 reactors in Germany and Sweden. This means that in cold and windless weather, a number of European countries could be dependent on imports at the same time.

- We have often been asked what to do with the land where the Barsebäck plant is located. Our message is that we are focusing on decommissioning. When the Swedish Energy Agency classified the land as a national interest for new electricity production, we also began work on how we can contribute to the electricity supply in southern Sweden, albeit in the long term," says Åsa Carlson.

The Barsebäcks site still has electricity distribution infrastructure with both switchyards and access to the main grid. But even though much has already been prepared, it may still be some time before new energy production comes on stream.

- Well, so far it's a vision where we are now exploring the conditions to realise our ideas. One part of this is to see a long-term and broad common view in energy policy on the strategy and objectives for the future electricity system," says Åsa Carlson and continues.

- We have initiated discussions with Kävlinge municipality, where my hope is that we can develop and work together on a common vision. We don't just see the energy park as housing energy production, but we also want the site to become a research hub in the Öresund region with a focus on new energy technologies. We have already started to make contacts with academia and industry.

Several projects around Sweden

Uniper has initiated a number of business development projects around Sweden, where the aim of the projects is to contribute to the transition to fossil-free energy and continued security of energy supply and competitiveness. Many of the projects involve testing and developing technologies such as SMR and energy carriers such as hydrogen, mainly for industry and transport, together with other partners.

The idea is also to develop new concepts for the electricity system of the future. The Clean Energy Park is just such a concept, with integrated energy production in which the different power sources interact rather than compete with each other.

- We see a future with clusters of local energy production close to electricity consumers, in cities and industrial towns, where small-scale nuclear power of the SMR type complements other fossil-free electricity production to provide the local community with both electricity and hydrogen," explains Åsa Carlson.

The construction of SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) requires changes in legislation to allow new construction outside existing nuclear facilities (not including BKAB) and the establishment of regulatory and licensing processes by SSM. In addition, that the law allows for an increased number of reactors.

If conditions are right, a new SMR Gen3 could be operational in the early 2030s, while a new SMR Gen4 is unlikely to be commercially mature until the 2040s. However, Uniper does not exclude large-scale nuclear power as a possible part of the solution, this will have to be analysed in further work.

- It is positive that the government's agreement seems to be in line with our concept. For example, a review of the legislation that currently limits the location and number of reactors is needed. Our concept must be able to extend beyond one political term," says Åsa Carlson.

Positive opinion in Sweden and Denmark

Another important parameter for new nuclear power is public opinion. There is currently a preponderance in favour of nuclear power in both Sweden and Denmark. According to a Novus survey earlier this year, 48% of respondents want to build new reactors in Sweden, while 12% want to phase them out through political decisions.

In Denmark, too, opinion has swung dramatically. In an August poll this year by analyst firm Megafon, 46% of respondents would vote yes on the question of building nuclear power in Denmark while 39% would vote no.

In a similar poll in Denmark in 2016, 17 percent voted for nuclear power in Denmark while a whopping 66 percent voted no.

Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity…

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“What on earth was going through former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s mind when he ventured to sign the memorandum of understanding for the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline? ”

— Germán & Co

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“The eternal marriage - Putin / Schroeder - bore fruit for both. Putin became the executor of the former Chancellor and in turn Schroeder took on the role of private secretary and spokesman for President Vladimir Putin. This open and knowledgeable relationship is not common practice in politics, especially when dealing with two nations with a geopolitical weight of absolute responsibility. Obviously, this friendship crossed the line and by far... The question here is why German intelligence did not act against a -financial society- that was so dangerous for its own country as well as for the world? ”

— Germán & Co

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WalkerBuldog says:

November 6, 2022 at 6:20 am

The city is also establishing 1,000 heating centers for its 3 million residents, as Russia pounds away at civilian targets.

KYIV, Ukraine — As they struggle to maintain an electricity grid heavily damaged by Russian missiles, officials in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, say they have begun planning for a once unthinkable possibility: a complete blackout that would require the evacuation of the city’s approximately three million remaining residents.

The situation is already so dire, with 40 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure damaged or destroyed, that municipal workers are setting up 1,000 heating shelters that can double as bunkers while engineers try to fix bombed-out power stations without the needed equipment.

To try to keep the grid from failing altogether, Ukraine’s national energy utility said on Saturday that it would continue to impose rolling blackouts in seven regions.

The tremendous strain on Ukraine’s ability to provide power is the result of the widespread bombardment by Russian forces of critical energy infrastructure across the country, a tactic that analysts say President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has resorted to as his troops have suffered repeated setbacks on the battlefield.

The damage caused by the Russian strikes has heaped new suffering on Ukraine’s civilians and forced officials to reckon with the possibility that further damage could render them unable to provide basic services.

“We understand that if Russia continues such attacks, we may lose our entire electricity system,” Roman Tkachuk, the director of security for the Kyiv municipal government, said in an interview, speaking of the city.

Officials in the capital have been told that they would be likely to have at least 12 hours’ notice that the grid was on the verge of failure. If it reaches that point, Mr. Tkachuk said, “we will start informing people and requesting them to leave.”

For now at least, the situation is manageable, and there were no indications that large numbers of civilians were fleeing Kyiv, he said. But that would change quickly if the services that relied on city power stopped.

“If there’s no power, there will be no water and no sewage,” he said. “That’s why currently the government and city administration are taking all possible measures to protect our power supply system.”

Nyheter vecka 44, världens kärnkraftsproduktion…

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“I sin rapport från 2022 om kärnkraftens roll i kampen mot klimatförändringarna, “Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions”, skriver Internationella energiorganet (IEA) att “Kärnkraft kan bidra till att göra energisektorns resa bort från oförminskade fossila bränslen snabbare och säkrare”.””

— (IEA)

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New life possible for British nuclear energy

Nov 4, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/UPI International Top News

Despite looking for cost-cutting measures, the British governments said Friday it has no plans to scrap the development of a new nuclear power plant that carries a $33 billion price tag.

Nuclear power fell out of favor in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011. But the so-called energy transition -- the pivot away from fossil fuels -- has put it back in play.

During his tenure, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he wanted to see eight new nuclear facilities built within the next eight years, putting nuclear power at the center of his energy transition strategy. Most of the operational nuclear power stations in the U.K. were expected to reach the end of their planned life span by the end of this decade.

Faced with a $56 billion gap in financing, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is working to trim spending. A spokesperson for his office told the BBC that every major project was now under review as part of the cost-cutting efforts, but nuclear power would be spared.

Talks with private developers for the planned Sizewell C facility -- slated for the Suffolk coast -- have been "constructive" and the government "hoped to get a deal over the line as soon as possible," the government spokesperson said.

The British taxpayer will provide about 20% of the bill for Sizewell C, The Guardian newspaper added in a separate report.

New life possible for British nuclear energy | Energy Central

Oklo Selected for DOE Project to Enable Recycling of Used Nuclear Fuel

Nov 4, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Gulf Oil & Gas

- Oklo, Argonne National Laboratory, Deep Isolation, and Case Western Reserve University were awarded $6.1 million in funding to enable the recycling of used nuclear fuel from the current light water reactor fleet into advanced reactor fuel. - Today’s reactors only consume about 5% of the energy content contained in their fuel. Nearly 95% of the energy content remains unused, and Oklo’s technology can unlock much of this remaining energy content. - The cost-share project will support the commercialization of Oklo’s clean powerhouses by utilizing the energy content in today’s waste and converting it into clean energy. - This work in strengthening the domestic fuel supply chain will facilitate a cleaner and more secure energy future for the country.

Oklo Selected for DOE Project to Enable Recycling of Used Nuclear Fuel | Energy Central

Entergy names new leader for nuclear division; see who will take over

Nov 4, 2022

By: Staff report

Source:

EnergyCentral/The Times-Picayune

Kimberly Cook-Nelson is taking over as Entergy's chief nuclear officer, the first woman to hold the position with the New Orleans-based utility corporation.

She will be based in Jackson, Mississippi, where the company's nuclear operations are headquartered.

Cook-Nelson joined Entergy in 1996 as general manager of plant operations at Entergy's Waterford 3 Steam Electric Station in Killona in St. Charles Parish. She has held various leadership positions in engineering, maintenance, operations and nuclear safety.

Most recently, she served as senior vice president for nuclear corporate services and chief operating officer, overseeing a trio of nuclear stations: River Bend Station in St. Francisville; Arkansas Nuclear One in Russellville, Arkansas; and Palisades Power Plant in Michigan, which Entergy shut down and sold earlier this year. Entergy also operates the troubled Grand Gulf nuclear station in Port Gibson, Mississippi.

Entergy names new leader for nuclear division; see who will take over | Energy Central

Belarus, Russia to develop cooperation in training nuclear energy specialists

Nov 4, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA)

MINSK, 3 November (BelTA) - Approaches to developing workforce capacity in the nuclear power industry were discussed in Minsk during a visit of representatives of Rosatom to Belarus, BelTA learned from the communications department of the state corporation.

The Russian delegation comprised specialists of Rosatom Technical and Corporate Academies and Rosenergoatom. They got familiar with the material base of the training center of Belarusian NPP: a full-scale simulator of a central control panel and training rooms for operating personnel with local simulators of different systems. The parties considered possibilities for further cooperation in personnel training and exchange of experience of the instructor personnel.

Belarus, Russia to develop cooperation in training nuclear energy specialists | Energy Central

Soon-to-be-nationalized German energy firm set to build nuclear plant in Sweden

Nov 4, 2022

By: 03.11.2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Anadolu Agency

BERLIN

The soon-to-be nationalized German energy company Uniper is looking to build a power plant in Sweden, local media reported on Thursday.

The decision comes amid a dispute in the German government over the future of nuclear power as an alternative in the energy crisis.

It was only thanks to an intervention by Chancellor Olaf Scholz that the operating licenses for three German nuclear power plants were extended in October against the opposition of coalition partner the Greens. However, the supply of new fuel rods is still unclear.

Soon-to-be-nationalized German energy firm set to build nuclear plant in Sweden | Energy Central

SMALL MODULAR REACTOR TECHNOLOGY COVERS ALL THE BASES: RELIABILITY, RESILIENCY, SAFETY AND AFFORDABILITY

Nov 3, 2022

EnergyCentral/Source:

States News Service

The following information was released by the American Public Power Association:

November 2, 2022

EnergyCentral/Peter Maloney

New nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMR), have reached a point where they are able to help utilities address growing concerns about fulfilling their core mission: delivering safe, affordable, and reliable electric power.

Several industry trends are challenging utility executives' abilities to balance those three key objectives.

A July report from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) highlighted the growing threats to reliability, including extreme weather events, the growing proliferation of "inverter based resources" such as photovoltaic solar power and energy storage, and increasing reliance on natural gas-fired generation.

The growth of renewable resources aimed at meeting state and federal goals aimed at addressing greenhouse gas emissions has been impressive. In the first half of the year, 24 percent of utility-scale generation in the United States came from renewable sources, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, as NERC pointed out this summer, as renewable resources have proliferated, gas-fired generators are becoming "necessary balancing resources" for reliability, leading to an interdependence that poses "a major new reliability risk."

SMALL MODULAR REACTOR TECHNOLOGY COVERS ALL THE BASES: RELIABILITY, RESILIENCY, SAFETY AND AFFORDABILITY | Energy Central

Moscow wants to connect Ukrainian nuclear plant to Russian grid - Energoatom

Nov 3, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Financial Post

From the Ukrainian power grid by Russian shelling, the Ukrainian nuclear energy company said. Energoatom said the last remaining high voltage lines connecting the plant to the Ukrainian grid had been damaged in Wednesday's shelling, and that Moscow wanted to connect the plant to the Russian grid. The facility in southern Ukraine, Europe's largest, has 15 days' worth of fuel to run the ...

Moscow wants to connect Ukrainian nuclear plant to Russian grid - Energoatom | Energy Central

Poland says first nuclear power station to cost $20 bn

Nov 3, 2022

By: AFP

Source:

EnergyCentral/Macau Business

Poland said Wednesday its first nuclear power station will cost around $20 billion (euros) to build, days after the government announced it had picked US firm Westinghouse for the job.

The decision to choose Westinghouse over France’s EDF and South Korea’s KHNP was formally adopted at a cabinet meeting in Warsaw on Wednesday.

“We have opted for American technology… namely US firm Westinghouse,” Morawiecki told reporters.

“The approximate cost… will be up to around $20 billion,” he said.

The EU member wants the power station in the northern village of Lubiatowo-Kopalino on the Baltic Sea coast to go online in 2033.

Poland plans to eventually host three nuclear sites with three reactors each, which would produce around 30 percent of the country’s electricity needs.

Warsaw also signed on Monday a letter of intent for South Korea’s KHNP to build a nuclear plant in Patnow, central Poland, based on its APR1400 technology.

Warsaw has been planning the nuclear programme for years but the question of energy security has taken on added urgency because of tensions with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Nuclear power would also help Poland replace coal, which has accounted for up to 80 percent of electricity generation, and reach its climate obligations.

Poland says first nuclear power station to cost $20 bn | Energy Central

French government aims to cut red tape for new nuclear reactors

Nov 2, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Reuters

PARIS, Nov 2 (Reuters) - France has drafted legislation to streamline bureaucracy for administrative permits needed to build new nuclear power plants, as it aims to double down on its nuclear and renewable energy facilities amid a global energy crunch. "The challenge is huge. We must move much more quickly and more strongly," Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher wrote on Twitter ahead of a ...

READ MORE

French government aims to cut red tape for new nuclear reactors | Energy Central

Northeast's first nuclear heating site begins ops

Nov 2, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/China Daily: Hong Kong Edition

Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Plant in Liaoning province was put into operation on Tuesday to provide heating for locals, said its operator China General Nuclear Power Corp.

This is Northeast China's first commercial nuclear heating project. With a planned heating area of 242,400 square meters, it is expected to replace the 12 coal-fired small boilers in Hongyanhe town, said the company.

The project will reduce coal consumption by 5,726 metric tons annually, and cut emissions of carbon dioxide by 14,000 tons, dust by 209 tons, sulfur dioxide by 60 tons and nitrogen oxide by 85 tons, it said.

Located in Wafangdian, Dalian, Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Plant is also the first nuclear power facility and the largest electric energy investment project in Northeast China.

Northeast's first nuclear heating site begins ops | Energy Central

NEWS

Poland plans to build 3 nuclear plants with 6 reactorNov 1, 2022

By: Murat Temizer |

Source:

EnergyCentral/Anadolu Agency

ANKARA

Poland plans to build three nuclear power plants with six reactors as part of its nuclear power program, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced late Sunday.

According to the Polish news agency PAP, Morawiecki said the country's nuclear program has been instigated to ensure energy security.

Morawiecki confirmed on Twitter on Friday that Warsaw would team up with the US and American company Westinghouse to build its first nuclear power plant.

"Nuclear power plants will help make us independent from the whims of the market, energy traders and the weather," he said.

Morawiecki also confirmed that the nuclear power investment energy "does not mean Poland will not be developing renewable sources of energy."

"However, we need stable energy, which today is ensured by coal," he added.

UPDATE 1-Bulgaria to reconnect nuclear reactor by end of week, says minister

Nov 1, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Reuters

The state-owned plant had to shut down one of its two Russian-designed units late on Saturday after detecting a problem with the cooling system of the reactor's power generator. Energy Minister Rossen Hristov said the repairs would take a bit longer than initially planned, but outlined that the problem was not in the nuclear part of the reactor and that there is no change in the radiation ...

UPDATE 1-Bulgaria to reconnect nuclear reactor by end of week, says minister | Energy Central

TerraPower, PacifiCorp evaluate potential to deploy up to five more Natrium reactors by 2035

Published on November 01, 2022 by Chris Galford

© Shutterstock

EnergyCentral

After announcing last year that a nuclear Natrium demonstration plant would be brought to Wyoming to replace a PacifiCorp coal-fueled power plant, PacifiCorp and TerraPower added last week that they are studying, in advance of potentially deploying, the possibility of up to five more reactors by 2035.

All affiliated reactors would be located in PacifiCorp service territory and include integrated energy storage systems. Part of the study on the topic will be to determine if deployment of said reactors could reduce costs for PacifiCorp customers while finding ways to more broadly deploy the technology. Assessors will examine the possibilities of locating these reactors near current fossil-fueled generation sites to repurpose existing generation and transmission assets.

TerraPower, PacifiCorp evaluate potential to deploy up to five more Natrium reactors by 2035 | Energy Central

WESTINGHOUSE TO BUILD POLAND'S FIRST NUCLEAR REACTORS; KHNP MAY GET SEPARATE DEAL

Nov 1, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/States News Service

The following information was released by the American Nuclear Society (ANS):

Poland has chosen Westinghouse Electric Company to supply the reactors for its initial nuclear power plant, as the Central European nation seeks to lessen its dependence on domestic coal and Russian imports for its energy supply. On Friday, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced the decision on Twitter, confirming last week's reports that Westinghouse's AP1000 technology was the government's likely choice.

"A strong [Polish-American] alliance guarantees the success of our joint initiatives," Morawiecki tweeted. "After talks with [vice president Kamala Harris and energy secretary Jennifer Granholm], we confirm our nuclear energy project will use the reliable, safe technology of [Westinghouse]."

WESTINGHOUSE TO BUILD POLAND'S FIRST NUCLEAR REACTORS; KHNP MAY GET SEPARATE DEAL | Energy Central

Ziakova: Ukraine war may spark more nuclear power R;D

Nov 1, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/Slovak Spectator

1. Nov 2022 at 7:15 Premium content Slovaks positive on nuclear power.

With the launch of the third unit of the nuclear power plant in Mochovce, Slovakia should become self-sufficient in electricity production within months. Once phased in - a process expected to be completed in early 2023 - it will cover 13 percent of electricity demand in the country, raising the share of nuclear energy as a part of total electricity generated in Slovakia from 52 to 65 percent.

The process of constructing and launching the unit is supervised by the Slovak Nuclear Regulatory Authority (aSJD SR).The Slovak Spectator spoke with MARTA ZIAKOVa, chairperson of aSJD SR, about the process, new trends in harnessing nuclear energy, and the ongoing decommissioning of two nuclear power plants in Slovakia.

Ziakova: Ukraine war may spark more nuclear power R;D | Energy Central

Rosatom to establish 2nd nuclear unit in Dabaa

Nov 1, 2022

By: Egypt Independent

Source:

EnergyCentral/Egypt Independent

Egyptian authorities have granted the Russian Rosatom State Atomiс Energy Corporation permission to establish a second unit for generating electricity at the Dabaa nuclear plant, according to a statement from the Egyptian Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority on Monday.

The authority received a request to obtain a construction permit for the first and second units in January 13, 2019.

Over the course of two years, the Nuclear Power Plants Authority completed its procedures by submitting the initial safety analysis report for the first and second units from January to June 2021.

Rosatom to establish 2nd nuclear unit in Dabaa | Energy Central

ENEC, Atlantic Council to collaborate on nuclear energy

Nov 1, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/TradeArabia

Kempe and

Al Hammadi The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) has signed a three-year agreement with the Atlantic Council to collaborate on the Council's Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative. It will also support the Council's efforts in promoting nuclear energy as a central component to clean energy transition.

The Atlantic Council is a US-based think tank, and home to the Global Energy Centre, one of the leading US energy centres for promoting energy security, working across government, industry and society to identify the way forward for the global energy sector.

The collaboration will see ENEC, and the Atlantic Council join forces to support the Atlantic Council's new Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative, which is dedicated to identifying the pathways for global decarbonisation using civil nuclear energy.

ENEC, Atlantic Council to collaborate on nuclear energy | Energy Central

NEWS

Poland, South Korea sign letter of intent on nuclear plant

Nov 1, 2022

By: The Peninsula Newspaper

Source:

EnergyCentral/The Peninsula

Warsaw and Seoul on Monday signed a letter of intent for South Korea's KHNP to build Poland's second nuclear power station, the partners involved said in a statement.

The announcement comes three days after Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said US firm Westinghouse had been selected to build the nation's first nuclear power station at Choczewo, on the Baltic Sea.

Monday's agreement is between KHNP and Polish partners PGE and ZE PAK as well as Polish government representatives.

Poland, South Korea sign letter of intent on nuclear plant | Energy Central

IAEA Chief Visits US - Nuclear Energy, Ukraine and UN Security Council

Oct 31, 2022

Source:

EnergyCentral/ENP Newswire

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi was in the United States this week as the IAEA held its International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power in the 21st Century in Washington DC. During his visit, on Thursday Mr Grossi addressed the United Nations Security Council, briefing the 15-nation group on what he described as the 'extremely fragile and dangerous' nuclear safety and security situation at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The ZNPP site has been controlled by Russian forces since March. Until recently, operational decisions were taken by its Ukraine staff, but Russia has announced it has taken control of the facility and is now taking those decisions. In recent months the site has been beset with power outages caused by shelling, putting nuclear safety and security at the plant at risk.

The briefing to the Security Council was Mr Grossi's fourth since the conflict began more than eight months ago, and the first delivered in person rather than virtually. The meeting was also attended by Ukraine, currently not a Security Council member.

Mr Grossi told the Council that progress had been made in high-level consultations with Ukraine and Russia in recent weeks on establishing an 'indispensable' nuclear safety and security protection zone around the ZNPP. He said 'we're not far from' an agreement and 'it is in no one's interest to have a major nuclear accident.'

IAEA Chief Visits US - Nuclear Energy, Ukraine and UN Security Council | Energy Central

News round-up, Friday, November 4, 2022.

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

““Disunion and chaos are not inevitable,” said Biden, standing at a podium in Union Station. “There’s been anger before in America. There’s been division before in America. But we’ve never given up on the American experiment. And we can’t do that now.””

— NYT

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'Against humanity'

The North's latest launches come as South Korea is in a period of national mourning after more than 150 people – mostly young women in their 20s – were killed in a crowd crush in Seoul on Saturday. (Le Monde)

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Jean-Marie Questiaux

Consultant on Linkedin today…

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What if Every Moment Since Jan. 6 Was Just the Calm Before the Storm?

November 3, 2022

Richard Ringer, a 69-year-old Democratic state House candidate in Pennsylvania, is an early riser, and on Monday he was up before 5 a.m. when he heard someone at his garage door. He looked out the window, saw a man with a flashlight, and assumed it was the same person who had twice vandalized his house in the past month.

Just a couple of weeks earlier, Ringer says, he found a message spray-painted on his garage door; though the rain partly rinsed it off, the words “Your Race” and “Dead” were visible. Then, last Thursday night, he says he came home to a brick thrown through his window.

So when Ringer saw the intruder on Monday, he says, he ran outside and tackled him. But the man was quickly able to pin Ringer down, and beat him unconscious. Ringer doesn’t know for certain that the violence was political — the police are investigating — but given the graffiti, and the fact that his neighborhood in Fayette County, in southwestern Pennsylvania, is usually quiet and safe, he suspects it was. “I’m not really surprised that this is happening locally, and is happening to me, just because of what has been going on and the enthusiasm for Trump around here,” he told me.

Ringer’s assault made the local news, but hasn’t been much of a story nationally. Perhaps that’s because it’s just a small detail in a growing tapestry of menace. All over this febrile country, intimations of mayhem are gathering. Vigilantes in Arizona, some armed and wearing tactical gear, have harassed and intimidated voters at the sites of ballot drop boxes, cheered on by Mark Finchem, the Republican candidate for secretary of state. In Nevada, where a millionaire far-right Republican official named Robert Beadles has systemically targeted election workers, Reuters reported that the top election officials in 10 of the state’s 17 counties have resigned, retired or declined to run again.

And, most notably, a MAGA fanatic named David DePape broke into Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home and assaulted her 82-year-old husband with a hammer, leaving him unconscious in a pool of his own blood. More shocking than the attack itself has been the response to it from the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party. Some officials spread lurid lies that Pelosi was attacked by a gay lover. Others jeered about it. “Nancy Pelosi, well, she’s got protection when she’s in D.C. — apparently her house doesn’t have a lot of protection,” Kari Lake, Arizona’s Republican candidate for governor, said to laughter at a campaign event. Donald Trump Jr.

It’s hard to feel sanguine about a society whose political class cannot muster the solidarity to universally condemn the terroristic bludgeoning of an old man. It’s why Joe Biden’s speech on Wednesday night, in which he spoke about the attack on Pelosi and the role that Trump’s big lie is playing in the midterms, was at once so necessary and so unpromising. He was trying to appeal to a patriotic consensus about democracy that simply no longer exists.

“Disunion and chaos are not inevitable,” said Biden, standing at a podium in Union Station. “There’s been anger before in America. There’s been division before in America. But we’ve never given up on the American experiment. And we can’t do that now.”

Biden wasn’t warning that America might spiral into either autocracy or low-level civil war. He was trying to offer hope that it might not. The very fact that he had to insist there’s an alternative to disunion and chaos is a sign of how bad things have gotten.

Political violence is not exclusively perpetrated by conservatives. The recent beating in Florida of a Marco Rubio canvasser — a man who turned out to have ties to white supremacists — appears to have been motivated by anti-Republican animus. But, as my colleagues on the editorial board wrote on Thursday, the right is far more violent than the left, and Republicans wink at assaults committed by extremists in a way that Democrats do not.

The message of all the chuckling about Paul Pelosi is clear: The right believes its enemies have no rights, and no longer sees the need to pretend otherwise. Donald Trump taught the Republican Party that it needn’t bother with hypocritical displays of decency, that it can revel in cruelty, transgression and the thrill of violence. Now it’s taking that lesson into the first post-Jan. 6 election. The tense calm of the last 20 months has often felt like being in the eye of a hurricane. Now the terrible weather is coming back.

In a widely cited essay, the centrist pundit Josh Barro criticized Biden’s speech because it implied that voters concerned about democracy must vote for Democrats whatever their policy preferences. “The message is that there is only one party contesting this election that is committed to democracy — the Democrats — and therefore only one real choice available,” he wrote, adding, “This amounts to telling voters that they have already lost their democracy.” I find this argument bizarre. It is simply a fact that only one party tried to overturn the 2020 election, and only one party is trying to insulate itself from the will of voters in future elections. As the Wisconsin Republican candidate Tim Michels put it recently, “Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.”

It may be that Biden’s efforts to alert the country about what’s coming are doomed. In a recent CBS poll, 56 percent of likely voters said they believe that if Republicans win in the midterms, they will try to overturn Democratic election victories. The same poll showed that, if the election were held today, 47 percent plan to vote for Republicans, and only 45 percent for Democrats. Those who prioritize the preservation of democracy in America are probably already Democratic voters. Still, Biden had an obligation to try to focus our attention on a mounting threat.

Though Republicans are likely to do well on Tuesday, many elections will probably remain unsettled. Leigh Chapman, Pennsylvania’s acting secretary of state, wrote that because of a state law prohibiting the counting of mail-in ballots before Election Day, results there will probably take several days. Nevada will also take several days after the election to count mail-in ballots. Some Republicans, including Lake and Finchem, won’t commit to accepting the result if they lose. We can expect others to sow doubt about the process if they start falling behind as mail-in votes come in.

As the Democratic strategist Michael Podhorzer put it, “When it comes to the postelection crisis, 2020 was like the beginning of ‘The Sorcerer’s Apprentice,’ and 2022 will be more like the part where the walking mops multiply out of control.” We should be ready for what could soon be unleashed.

The post What if Every Moment Since Jan. 6 Was Just the Calm Before the Storm? appeared first on New York Times.

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https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2022/11/04/south-korea-scrambles-jets-after-detecting-180-north-korean-warplanes_6002933_4.html

South Korea scrambles jets after detecting 180 North Korean warplanes

The North Korean aircraft flew north of the military border, South Korea's military said in a statement.

Le Monde with AFP

Published on November 4, 2022 at 08h39

A South Korean Air Force F-35A fighter jet during a US-South Korea joint aerial drill called "Vigilant Storm" at Gunsan Air Base in Gunsan, October 31, 2022/ HANDOUT / AFP

South Korea's military scrambled stealth jets on Friday, November 4, after detecting the mobilization of 180 North Korean warplanes, Seoul said as it conducted large-scale joint air drills with the United States which have infuriated Pyongyang.

North Korea has launched a record-breaking blitz of missile launches this week, including a failed intercontinental ballistic missile test on Thursday. Seoul and Washington extended their largest-ever joint air drills through Saturday in response to the North's flurry of projectiles.

"Our military detected around 180 North Korean warplanes" mobilized in Pyongyang's airspace, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, adding that Seoul "scrambled 80 fighter jets including F-35As" while jets involved in the joint drills were also "maintaining readiness".

Shortly after South Korea announced the decision to extend the joint drills on Thursday, Pyongyang launched three more short-range ballistic missiles, calling the move "a very dangerous and wrong choice". Hours later, the North fired 80 artillery rounds that landed in a maritime "buffer zone", Seoul's military said.

The barrage was a "clear violation" of the 2018 agreement that established the buffer zone in a bid to reduce tensions between the two sides, Seoul's Joints Chiefs of Staff said.

Read more North Korea continues missile barrage, triggers evacuation warning in Japan

The artillery fire came after Pyongyang fired about 30 missiles Wednesday and Thursday, including an intercontinental ballistic missile and one that landed near South Korea's territorial waters for the first time since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin described Pyongyang's ICBM launch as "illegal and destabilizing," and Seoul and Washington vowed to pursue new measures to demonstrate their "determination and capabilities" against the North's growing threats.

Experts and officials have said Pyongyang is ramping up its tests in protest over the US-South Korean drills. Washington and Seoul have repeatedly warned that Pyongyang's recent launches could be a precursor to a nuclear test, which would be its seventh.

Pyongyang has called the joint air drills, dubbed Vigilant Storm, "an aggressive and provocative military drill targeting" North Korea, and threatened that Washington and Seoul would "pay the most horrible price in history" if it continued.

'Against humanity'

The North's latest launches come as South Korea is in a period of national mourning after more than 150 people – mostly young women in their 20s – were killed in a crowd crush in Seoul on Saturday.

Pyongyang's provocations, "especially during our national mourning period, are against humanity and humanitarianism", Lee Hyo-jung, a vice spokesperson at Seoul's unification ministry, said Friday.

"The government strongly condemns North Korea for continuing threats and provocations, citing our annual and defensive drills, raising tensions on the Korean peninsula," she said, blaming the current tension on Pyongyang's "reckless nuclear and missile development".

Read more North Korea fires at least 23 missiles, one crosses maritime border with South for first time We are interested in your experience using the site. Send feedback

In addition to extending Vigilant Storm through Saturday, Seoul's military announced that the annual Taegeuk exercise – which focuses on "improving wartime transition performance" and crisis management – would be held next week.

The computer-simulated exercise will be carried out to strengthen "the ability to carry out practical mission capability in preparation for various threats such as North Korea's nuclear weapons, missiles, and recent provocations", it said.

Le Monde with AFP

The 1973 Oil Shock - What if anything did we learn?

Jean-Marie Questiaux

Consultant

The growing demand for oil in the past 100 years is a reflection of the world’s growing economy coupled to an exponential growth in its population. Of course, the demand for a commodity like oil is one thing, its supply and price is another. Yet its supply and price have a direct repercussion on the world’s economies, inflation, food prices and ultimately on social stability, which can range from peaceful street demonstrations to all out regional wars.

Amazingly, oil prices were incredibly stable in the period 1880 to 1973 (Figure 1), even showing a general decrease with time (in real terms). This probably because oil was so plentiful with discoveries far outweighing production until 1981 (Figure 2) that is when the trend reversed.

The world enjoyed low and stable prices that major world events such as the crash of 1929 and two world wars barely made a ripple on the oil price (Figure 1).

Figure 1 – Historical oil prices 1881 to 2017. Price normalised to constant 2017 US$

Figure 2 – Oil Discoveries versus Oil Production

All this changed in October 1973 when the Yum Kippur war broke out between Egypt and Israel. A short but fierce and bitter conflict which ended with a truce 3 weeks after the start of hostilities. Frustrated and angered by the support shown to Israel by the US and most western countries, the Middle Eastern countries holding the largest oil reserves and making up the bulk of OPEC member countries, slapped an oil embargo on the countries allied to Israel.

OPEC production was reduced by 25% from 5th November and further to 30% by 9th December 1973. Not surprisingly the oil price rocketed, quadrupling from $3 to $12/bbl ($17 to $61/bbl in 2017 US$). The period of low, stable and predictable oil prices had come to an abrupt end. Nothing but “oil” hardship and pain seemed to lay ahead from that date.

OPEC’s action was immediately and vociferously condemned by western governments describing it as blackmail and was depicted as nothing short of extorsion by a very hostile western press.

As brutal as the embargo was, OPEC’s behaviour and immediate actions thereafter deserve far more praise than the criticism it continues to attract to this day. Firstly, to the credit of OPEC, the embargo was extremely short lived, ending after 5 months in March 1974. The harm was limited and short-term, which for those who remember was queues at gas stations, reduced speed limits, no driving on Sundays and other fuel saving rules enforced in those 5 months. However, with the benefit of hindsight, the embargo's repercussions were significant and turned out in the longer term to be far more beneficial than harmful. It acted as a wakeup call to the world (consumer countries mainly) reminding them of the strategic importance of a reliable low cost energy supply to maintain healthy economic growth, while making all aware for the first time that the era of limitless oil was coming to an end.

The balance between access to cheap and plentiful energy (oil mainly) and its price is of enormous importance to the world and should not be left solely to the market forces of supply and demand to control it as many believe. Oil prices must be set such that producing countries can generate their fair share of revenue, that oil companies can likewise make a fair profit on finding and producing the stuff, while oil should be sufficiently affordable to the world's factories to keep industry and the economy rolling and healthy. This is a noble objective, but a diabolically difficult act to balance, especially in a global economy where the needs of the producing and consuming countries vary widely between them as does the production costs of oil.

What good came out of the 1973 Oil shock?

1.     An understanding that a fair price for oil, would sustain world industrial activity and its economic wellbeing. In other words, a win-win situation of a continued well-oiled industrial machine, in return for a fair, steady and continued income from oil.

2.     The higher oil price triggered by the 1973 oil shock spurred countries to seek greater energy independence which in turn launched successful exploration and production in non-OPEC countries

3.     World production was 55 MMstb/d in 1973 and reached 100 MMstb/d in 2018, with demand growing at ~1.7%/year. Covid-19 has reduced this to 95MMstb/d for 2020 which frankly is not much. Without the spur for additional production brought on by the 1973 oil shock, the present demand could probably never have been met today, and the world would likely be in much greater turmoil now as a result.

4.     The realisation that discoveries would soon be overtaken by production and that peak oil was on the horizon

5.     This growth in production has maintained low oil prices since to the benefit and delight of industry and consumers alike

What did OPEC learn and gain from the 1973 Oil shock?

Although the growth in non-OPEC production did cause OPEC to lose some of its clout and power on the energy market, there were major gains and benefits too:

1.     First realisation that voluntary production cuts can have a very dramatic impact on oil prices. Demonstration that a 25% cut in production could quadruple oil prices overnight. Even if, it must be said, the quadrupling a small number remains a small number.

2.     Realisation that volatility in supply and price leads to economic chaos, damaging to all parties (consumers & producers). A lose-lose scenario. Probably explains why the embargo was short-lived

3.     Realisation that oil prices in 1973 were ridiculously low. The (sharp) adjustment was necessary, long overdue, and hugely beneficial to the oil producing countries, with minimal damage to consuming countries

4.     Gained greater control over its oil and its production.

For example, and as incredible as it sounds, 1973 marked the first year in which an agreement between a producing country and a producer (foreign oil company) was more beneficial to the oil producing country than to the oil company.

It was Colonel Muammar Gaddafi who demanded in a renewal of a production agreement with Occidental Oil, that the production ratio of 40:60 to the benefit of Oxy be reversed to the benefit of the state of Libya, something Armand Hammer (CEO at Oxy at the time) readily signed to.

No one today would argue that producing countries (OPEC or non-OPEC) should be the greatest beneficiary of their oil.

5.    The imbalance in favour of new discoveries versus produced oil was rapidly coming to an end.

Production overtook discoveries in 1981 and the gap has widened ever since (Figure 2)

6.     Maintaining world economies in good health comes from affordable energy prices and requires establishing a fair price to make it a win-win situation

What did the world learn and gain from the 1973 Oil shock?

1.     That a fair price for oil is necessary for the benefit of producing and consuming countries

2.     There is for now plenty of oil and the 1973 oil shock is largely responsible for that. No so confident on the future but that is another debate

What now?

There is still much to do, especially in rectifying some of the imbalances which persist to this day

1.    Oil prices continue to show excessive volatility, unlike the era before 1973

2.    OPEC producers are constantly solicited and Saudi Arabia in particular, to cut back production when oil prices are low and open the taps when prices and/or demand is high. Not sure what flexibility or capacity Saudi Arabia enjoys to do that

This is a very heavy burden to carry for OPEC and Saudi Arabia in particular, especially as there is very little reciprocity from non-OPEC producers, including the US or North Sea to do likewise

3.     Consuming countries impose variable but generally high duty/tax on refined petroleum products and could use these tariffs as levers to encourage or stifle demand which could have an equally important impact on oil prices, rather than expecting OPEC countries to carry the burden and responsibility to stabilise oil prices

Conclusions

1.     The 1973 oil shock was almost certainly far more beneficial than harmful in the long term

2.     OPEC should not be considered as a rival or competitor, but rather as a partner to ensure stability on the energy market

3.     There should be far greater research done to establish the range of what constitutes the fair value of oil as economic conditions and metrics change. This to ensure that both producing and consuming countries best benefit from oil production and in the most equitable manner

Verizon profit declines as pricier plans result in subscriber loss

PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 21 20221:02 PM EDT

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KEY POINTS

• Verizon Communications Inc’s profit fell 23% and it added fewer-than-expected wireless subscribers in the third quarter.

• The largest U.S. wireless carrier said on Friday it lost 189,000 monthly bill-paying phone subscribers in its consumer business after it included additional charges in June.

• Shares fell 6% to their lowest in over a decade.

By Paul Sakuma

Verizon Communications Inc’s profit fell 23% and it added fewer-than-expected wireless subscribers in the third quarter as its raised prices drove some customers to cheaper plans from fast-growing rivals AT&T Inc and T-Mobile US Inc.

The largest U.S. wireless carrier said on Friday it lost 189,000 monthly bill-paying phone subscribers in its consumer business after it included additional charges in June, over and above its pricey plans.

Shares fell 6% to their lowest in over a decade as finance chief Matt Ellis said higher prices for plans led to disconnections and warned the pressure would continue into the next quarter.

Competition in the U.S. telecoms markets is heating up after Verizon and AT&T offloaded their media businesses and T-Mobile completed its merger with Sprint Corp to become wireless-focused companies.

While higher spending on 5G infrastructure has jacked up costs, the companies are forced to keep their plans affordable as rising inflation hammers consumer spending.

Verizon, whose plans are the most expensive, added 8,000 net new monthly bill paying wireless phone subscribers in the quarter, well below Factset estimates of 35,400 additions.

Some analysts feared competition is catching up, while many said its high price must been seen as its strength.

“The thing people forget is the biggest company in the industry, they have the most customers to lose each quarter,” Michael Hodel, director of telecom and media research at Morningstar said.

Its net subscriber addition was powered by an increase in its business segment, which added 197,000 customers.

“Verizon’s ability to maintain pricing power is a key strength as it navigates a fairly saturated wireless market,” Jamie Lumley, Third Bridge analyst said.

While its third-quarter revenue and profit beat Refinitiv estimates, subcriber loss remains an overhang as analysts said iPhone upgrades in the holiday season are expected to be weaker.

Net income fell to $5 billion, prompting Verizon to announce a plan to reduce annual costs of between $2 billion and $3 billion by 2025.

Think the Energy Crisis Is Bad? Wait Until Next Winter… (Time)

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“BY SURIYA JAYANTI
OCTOBER 31, 2022 6:00 AM EDT
Jayanti is an Eastern Europe energy policy expert. She served for ten years as a U.S. diplomat, including as the Energy Chief at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine (2018-2020), and as international energy counsel at the U.S. Department of Commerce (2020-2021). She is currently the Managing Director of Eney, a U.S.-Ukrainian decarbonization company.”

— Time.com

View fullsize

Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid…

 

Altice delivers innovative, customer-centric products and solutions that connect and unlock the limitless potential of its over 30 million customers over fiber networks and mobile…

“NOW:... An out-of-control 23-tonne Chinese rocket is heading for Earth and Spain is on its trajectory.
It has forced the closure of part of Spain’s air traffic.”

— www.abc.es

Editor's Pick:

For policymakers grappling with global energy shortages and households scrambling to pay record high utility bills, some unwelcome news: This year’s energy crisis is going to look mild once next year’s kicks in. It is winter 2023-2024 that is going to be the real crisis. Any current energy planning that fails to account for next year and beyond is jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire—where this winter is a problem, 2023’s may be a catastrophe.

The immediate problem is simple: There is not enough fuel, and therefore not enough electricity, so prices have skyrocketed for both. To a large extent, this is a result of decreased Russian exports of oil, natural gas, and coal, which have been hit by western sanctions and other policy efforts to curb Russian revenues funding atrocities in Ukraine. Most Russian fuel supplies are still reaching international markets, however, because countries like China and India are happy to buy discounted product from a not-quite-fully marginalized Kremlin. But Russian exports are down, too, approximately 18% in August compared to February. Notwithstanding a current drop in natural gas prices now that European storages are mostly full, prices have been so high as a consequence of tighter supplies that Russian President Vladimir Putin is enjoying record energy revenues—over €200 billion since the start of the war on February 24. In turn, markets are tight globally and countries are competing for limited supplies in what has become a zero-sum energy game.

This year’s energy shortage is not just a Russia problem, however. Other factors keeping energy supply below demand are the unexpected surge in economic and industrial activity as countries awoke from COVID-19, refining capacity shortfalls caused by myriad fires, labor strikes, and other maintenance activities, and overall inflation that puts upward pressure on prices independent of supply constraints. The knock-on effect—high prices and lower than normal generation—on electricity are because most power plants burn oil, coal, and natural gas. Utilities can neither raise prices on consumers without regulatory approval nor buy fuel imports with unchecked debt under existing laws that prevent risky behavior by critical service providers. Many power plants around the world are struggling to continue generating electricity.

Meanwhile there are not nearly enough nuclear, wind, solar, and other non-fossil fuel alternatives, and hydroelectric plants worldwide are suffering due to climate change droughts. The end result is current or forecast brown and blackouts across the developing world, in parts of Europe, and maybe in the U.S., too, according to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Developing countries are the worst off because they have less ability to absorb higher energy costs.

This is the situation we are in now, which winter will exacerbate, but it is going to be a walk in the park compared to next year. To start with, this year is not as bad as it could be. Although this year’s winter will prove uncomfortable and expensive, Europe is nonetheless in a surprisingly good position. Bloc-wide, natural gas storages are now well over 90% of the annual target, which is actually at least 15% higher than their levels a year ago. This is not enough to heat and power the continent through a cold winter, or even a normal winter at current consumption levels. But barring any unforeseen calamities, current natural gas reserves are probably enough for one winter if the E.U. succeeds in implementing both its voluntary and mandatory cumulative 15% electricity usage reduction policies.

Of course, a warm winter and a 15% consumption reduction is a best case scenario, and it is far from certain it will play out. During a cold snap in September and October, Poles were burning trash to stay warm. Europeans are hoarding firewood, and blackouts are already occurring in some countries. And, unfortunately, warm weather now coupled with energy subsidies are likely to disincentivize conservation of existing energy resources. Alexey Miller, CEO of Russia’s Gazprom, thus estimated in mid-October that European countries could be short about one-third, 800 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas per day during a cold spell this winter even with gas storages full now.

He’s not wrong. An unusually cold week in Europe in September functioned something of a stress test for whether energy use was being successfully reduced. It was a failure. Amid a massive effort to lower consumption, German consumers instead used 14.5% more gas than in previous years. So much for belt tightening.

What is certain is that if Europeans, and the rest of us, could see ahead to 2023 and beyond they would be doing everything in their power to save energy reserves now in preparation. The fundamental problem faced this year—a fuel and thus power shortage causing insanely high prices—will not go away by next year. It will instead expand into an energy crisis that makes this year’s look manageable.

First, there is a high probability that China will finally come out of COVID-19 slumber. It will rock and roil energy markets when it does. China’s ongoing lockdowns resulted in a sharp decline in fossil fuel and power consumption, a 9.14% drop for oil and 5.8% for natural gas in April 2022 over 2021. In fact, Chinese consumption has dropped so much that it was recently arbitraging energy, buying U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) on preexisting fixed long-term contracts and selling it for a huge profit at current spot market prices to Europe. This August, China, the world’s biggest consumer of energy, imported a full two million barrels of crude oil a day fewer than expected. For comparison, Russia exports an average of 10 million barrels per day, meaning that when China wakes up from COVID-19 it will rise with a voracious energy appetite equal to 20% of Russia’s exports. This will put tremendous additional pressure on energy markets already straining under current demand.

Second, Putin is not about to turn the energy taps back on for Europe. If he is still in power next year, the Russian President will demonstrate his famous ability to hold a grudge by doing whatever he can to continue punishing Europe for backing Ukraine. He would not have sabotaged Nord Stream 1 and 2, his own gas pipelines to Germany, if he were considering starting to again send fuel to Europe. Putin is instead playing a long game, waiting for the energy crisis to cause enough inflation to bring about enough popular unrest to topple western governments opposed to Russian imperialism. He would also not be damaging Russia’s oil and gas industry if energy relief for the West were in his plans. The physics of natural gas and oil wells are such, to differing degrees, that they are not like a light switch that can be flicked on and off. The sanctions coupled with the loss of western expertise and reduced export volumes mean Russia will have trouble quickly getting its petroleum industry back up and running at scale after the war, if ever.

If Putin is not in power next year, then possibly new Russian leadership so deftly takes the helm of the Russian economy and its petroleum industry that sanctions are lifted and oil and natural gas again flow westward freely, but probably not. Far more likely to flourish in the power vacuum Putin would leave in a situation of political and economic instability. So, either way, Russia is probably not going to be the world’s energy bank in 2023, and likely not for years after.

This means that when Europe emerges from this winter in April 2023 it will have exhausted its fuel reserves and will have a much harder time finding ways to replenish them. Over 40% of Europe’s stored gas for this winter came from Russia, despite sanctions and conflict. In 2023 and beyond, Europe will try to—will have to—source its energy imports from elsewhere, which will put it in direct competition with other countries and result in a bidding war for resources. This will, in turn, drive prices up even higher. Although natural gas prices have dropped precipitously for now, down 70% as Europe has stopped buying now that its storages are relatively full and Autumn has been mostly warm, they will spike again in 2023 as soon as demand rises.

The simple reality is that there aren’t adequate supplies anywhere in the short to medium term—6 months to 2 years. U.S. LNG cannot save the world. This year’s 12% increase in U.S. LNG exports is a rate of growth that cannot be sustained. Existing U.S. production is already mostly maxed out for now and there is inadequate infrastructure—not enough pipeline capacity to move gas to LNG terminals, and no new LNG terminals planned for another two years. The next one expected to come online is Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG facility, a joint project with QatarEnergy, hoped for in 2024.

Even were there more production and export capacity in the U.S., global import capacity is limited to the fewer than 50 LNG terminals in existence. In Europe, for one, LNG terminals have had spare capacity to import less than 70 billion tons, whereas the continent imported about 170 bcm of pipeline gas, the equivalent of 118 billion tons of LNG, per year from Russia before the invasion of Ukraine. Europe is looking to rent floating LNG terminals to alleviate this bottleneck, but the cost is massive and other issues persist. And, a dirty secret is that much of the LNG that has rescued Europe this winter is in fact Russian, a sanctions loophole that is almost certainly going to be closed. Russian LNG imports into Europe are up 42%, but won’t be next year. Moreover, LNG is now shockingly expensive, too. LNG tanker charter prices were recently $400,000 per day and were expected to hit $1 million.

Yes, Germany and other countries are now building new infrastructure, but none of it will be ready next year. Building new pipelines takes 1.5-4 years and LNG terminals need 2-5 years. It will take another 3-5 years, at a minimum, for the LNG markets to balance supply and demand. Meanwhile, few reasonable investors will pour billions into infrastructure projects with a 10-30 year breakeven timeline for fuels the world is trying to phase out in 8 years because of climate change. New fossil fuel projects may be redundant before they are even completed. In the meantime, in 2023 there will not be enough U.S. or Qatari liquified natural gas (LNG), nor Azerbaijani gas, nor Kenyan, nor Australian, nor any other to compensate for the total loss of Russian imports.

Protester hold a sign that reads "People over profits" as people march to demand a continued shift to renewable energy sources and reduction in fossil fuel dependence despite the current energy crisis on October 22, 2022 in Berlin, Germany.

Nor can renewables yet save the day. Wind and solar farms can be built relatively quickly and cheaply, but they cannot be used to power heating at a large scale because most households are not equipped with electric heaters or heat pumps. Replacing an entire country’s heating systems will take longer than a year. In any case, there are supply chain bottlenecks for solar panels and wind turbines, mostly because of China’s lockdwon policies, so this is not a viable option in the short term anyway. Nuclear power is also not a solution for the 2-5 year range because nuclear plants take 5-10 years to license and build. Biofuels and geothermal heating are promising technologies, but suffer from the same shortcomings—either they take too long to build or are not sufficiently scalable and thus unable to solve the immediate problem. While the energy crisis is proving an excellent stimulus for innovation, none of the new technologies it brings forth will be ready by 2023, or 2024, or probably even 2025.

Taken together, Europe is likely to be short by as much as 20% of its needed fuel in 2023. The bulk of what it can secure will come at a price so high that recession-hit governments will have trouble buying it while simultaneously paying their populations’ energy bills. Without the ability to bring new energy sources online in a hurry, the single tool governments have at their immediate disposal is cutting consumption. This is the equivalent of zipping up the tent in a hurricane, but it is what’s available. As the German experience in September shows, however, getting people to use less gas and electricity is very, very difficult. A mild winter in Europe this year will also make people less likely to conserve for 2023.

Of course, it’s not the rich countries of North America and northern Europe that will suffer the most through the energy crisis, whether this year or next. This energy crisis is global. Already poorer countries are facing blackouts, protests, and worse because European and Asian demand has driven fuel prices higher than developing countries can afford. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Ecuador, and Haiti are just a few of the cash strapped countries rocked by energy inflation, fuels shortages, and the violent protests they triggered. Continued food insecurity due to lack of fertilizer and fuels will worsen, too, and unrest with them. And as scarce energy resources pit countries against each other, it is the those that were already behind that will lose on the market. These trends will accelerate when the real energy crisis hits in 2023 and 2024.

For fuel-rich countries, like the U.S., the consequences of the energy crisis escalating through 2023 will be mixed. On one hand, there is a lot of money to be made. The 2022 energy crisis has brought record profits to petroleum companies, which will continue as long as fuel shortages do. The large increase in U.S. LNG exports has meant massive profits for private U.S. petroleum companies, such as Exxon. The same is true for Norway. Norwegian gas imports into the E.U. are up 8% compared to last year, making it the E.U.’s top supplier since Russia mostly cut off gas exports. Equinor, the state-owned petroleum company, is expecting $82 billion more in 2022 and 2023 in energy revenues, up from $27 billion in 2021. Even embattled Venezuela could cash in—the White House was considering relaxing sanctions on Caracas to allow Chevron to bring more Venezuelan crude oil into play. China’s LNG arbitrage made for good money, too.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic and political fallout from the energy crisis will be felt everywhere, even in net energy exporting countries. Record energy prices have almost certainly pushed European and other countries into recession, which will necessarily reverberate in the U.S., Canada, OPEC countries, and elsewhere. Even in Norway, inflation has tripled, up from a 20-year average of 1.84% to almost 7% in September 2022. Economies are simply too interlinked for problems on one continent not to affect everywhere else.

Think the Energy Crisis Is Bad? Wait Until Next Winter… (Time)

AES Dominicana Foundation… Lend a Hand…. It´s Time to Reforest

“BY SURIYA JAYANTI

OCTOBER 31, 2022 6:00 AM EDT

Jayanti is an Eastern Europe energy policy expert. She served for ten years as a U.S. diplomat, including as the Energy Chief at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine (2018-2020), and as international energy counsel at the U.S. Department of Commerce (2020-2021). She is currently the Managing Director of Eney, a U.S.-Ukrainian decarbonization company.”

— Time.com

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Seaboard’s CEO in the Dominican Republic, Armando Rodriguez, explains how the Estrella del Mar III, a floating hybrid power plant, will reduce CO2 emissions and bring stability to the national grid.

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“NOW:... An out-of-control 23-tonne Chinese rocket is heading for Earth and Spain is on its trajectory.
It has forced the closure of part of Spain’s air traffic.”

— www.abc.es

Editor's Pick:

For policymakers grappling with global energy shortages and households scrambling to pay record high utility bills, some unwelcome news: This year’s energy crisis is going to look mild once next year’s kicks in. It is winter 2023-2024 that is going to be the real crisis. Any current energy planning that fails to account for next year and beyond is jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire—where this winter is a problem, 2023’s may be a catastrophe.

The immediate problem is simple: There is not enough fuel, and therefore not enough electricity, so prices have skyrocketed for both. To a large extent, this is a result of decreased Russian exports of oil, natural gas, and coal, which have been hit by western sanctions and other policy efforts to curb Russian revenues funding atrocities in Ukraine. Most Russian fuel supplies are still reaching international markets, however, because countries like China and India are happy to buy discounted product from a not-quite-fully marginalized Kremlin. But Russian exports are down, too, approximately 18% in August compared to February. Notwithstanding a current drop in natural gas prices now that European storages are mostly full, prices have been so high as a consequence of tighter supplies that Russian President Vladimir Putin is enjoying record energy revenues—over €200 billion since the start of the war on February 24. In turn, markets are tight globally and countries are competing for limited supplies in what has become a zero-sum energy game.

This year’s energy shortage is not just a Russia problem, however. Other factors keeping energy supply below demand are the unexpected surge in economic and industrial activity as countries awoke from COVID-19, refining capacity shortfalls caused by myriad fires, labor strikes, and other maintenance activities, and overall inflation that puts upward pressure on prices independent of supply constraints. The knock-on effect—high prices and lower than normal generation—on electricity are because most power plants burn oil, coal, and natural gas. Utilities can neither raise prices on consumers without regulatory approval nor buy fuel imports with unchecked debt under existing laws that prevent risky behavior by critical service providers. Many power plants around the world are struggling to continue generating electricity.

Meanwhile there are not nearly enough nuclear, wind, solar, and other non-fossil fuel alternatives, and hydroelectric plants worldwide are suffering due to climate change droughts. The end result is current or forecast brown and blackouts across the developing world, in parts of Europe, and maybe in the U.S., too, according to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Developing countries are the worst off because they have less ability to absorb higher energy costs.

This is the situation we are in now, which winter will exacerbate, but it is going to be a walk in the park compared to next year. To start with, this year is not as bad as it could be. Although this year’s winter will prove uncomfortable and expensive, Europe is nonetheless in a surprisingly good position. Bloc-wide, natural gas storages are now well over 90% of the annual target, which is actually at least 15% higher than their levels a year ago. This is not enough to heat and power the continent through a cold winter, or even a normal winter at current consumption levels. But barring any unforeseen calamities, current natural gas reserves are probably enough for one winter if the E.U. succeeds in implementing both its voluntary and mandatory cumulative 15% electricity usage reduction policies.

Of course, a warm winter and a 15% consumption reduction is a best case scenario, and it is far from certain it will play out. During a cold snap in September and October, Poles were burning trash to stay warm. Europeans are hoarding firewood, and blackouts are already occurring in some countries. And, unfortunately, warm weather now coupled with energy subsidies are likely to disincentivize conservation of existing energy resources. Alexey Miller, CEO of Russia’s Gazprom, thus estimated in mid-October that European countries could be short about one-third, 800 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas per day during a cold spell this winter even with gas storages full now.

He’s not wrong. An unusually cold week in Europe in September functioned something of a stress test for whether energy use was being successfully reduced. It was a failure. Amid a massive effort to lower consumption, German consumers instead used 14.5% more gas than in previous years. So much for belt tightening.

What is certain is that if Europeans, and the rest of us, could see ahead to 2023 and beyond they would be doing everything in their power to save energy reserves now in preparation. The fundamental problem faced this year—a fuel and thus power shortage causing insanely high prices—will not go away by next year. It will instead expand into an energy crisis that makes this year’s look manageable.

First, there is a high probability that China will finally come out of COVID-19 slumber. It will rock and roil energy markets when it does. China’s ongoing lockdowns resulted in a sharp decline in fossil fuel and power consumption, a 9.14% drop for oil and 5.8% for natural gas in April 2022 over 2021. In fact, Chinese consumption has dropped so much that it was recently arbitraging energy, buying U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) on preexisting fixed long-term contracts and selling it for a huge profit at current spot market prices to Europe. This August, China, the world’s biggest consumer of energy, imported a full two million barrels of crude oil a day fewer than expected. For comparison, Russia exports an average of 10 million barrels per day, meaning that when China wakes up from COVID-19 it will rise with a voracious energy appetite equal to 20% of Russia’s exports. This will put tremendous additional pressure on energy markets already straining under current demand.

Second, Putin is not about to turn the energy taps back on for Europe. If he is still in power next year, the Russian President will demonstrate his famous ability to hold a grudge by doing whatever he can to continue punishing Europe for backing Ukraine. He would not have sabotaged Nord Stream 1 and 2, his own gas pipelines to Germany, if he were considering starting to again send fuel to Europe. Putin is instead playing a long game, waiting for the energy crisis to cause enough inflation to bring about enough popular unrest to topple western governments opposed to Russian imperialism. He would also not be damaging Russia’s oil and gas industry if energy relief for the West were in his plans. The physics of natural gas and oil wells are such, to differing degrees, that they are not like a light switch that can be flicked on and off. The sanctions coupled with the loss of western expertise and reduced export volumes mean Russia will have trouble quickly getting its petroleum industry back up and running at scale after the war, if ever.

If Putin is not in power next year, then possibly new Russian leadership so deftly takes the helm of the Russian economy and its petroleum industry that sanctions are lifted and oil and natural gas again flow westward freely, but probably not. Far more likely to flourish in the power vacuum Putin would leave in a situation of political and economic instability. So, either way, Russia is probably not going to be the world’s energy bank in 2023, and likely not for years after.

This means that when Europe emerges from this winter in April 2023 it will have exhausted its fuel reserves and will have a much harder time finding ways to replenish them. Over 40% of Europe’s stored gas for this winter came from Russia, despite sanctions and conflict. In 2023 and beyond, Europe will try to—will have to—source its energy imports from elsewhere, which will put it in direct competition with other countries and result in a bidding war for resources. This will, in turn, drive prices up even higher. Although natural gas prices have dropped precipitously for now, down 70% as Europe has stopped buying now that its storages are relatively full and Autumn has been mostly warm, they will spike again in 2023 as soon as demand rises.

The simple reality is that there aren’t adequate supplies anywhere in the short to medium term—6 months to 2 years. U.S. LNG cannot save the world. This year’s 12% increase in U.S. LNG exports is a rate of growth that cannot be sustained. Existing U.S. production is already mostly maxed out for now and there is inadequate infrastructure—not enough pipeline capacity to move gas to LNG terminals, and no new LNG terminals planned for another two years. The next one expected to come online is Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG facility, a joint project with QatarEnergy, hoped for in 2024.

Even were there more production and export capacity in the U.S., global import capacity is limited to the fewer than 50 LNG terminals in existence. In Europe, for one, LNG terminals have had spare capacity to import less than 70 billion tons, whereas the continent imported about 170 bcm of pipeline gas, the equivalent of 118 billion tons of LNG, per year from Russia before the invasion of Ukraine. Europe is looking to rent floating LNG terminals to alleviate this bottleneck, but the cost is massive and other issues persist. And, a dirty secret is that much of the LNG that has rescued Europe this winter is in fact Russian, a sanctions loophole that is almost certainly going to be closed. Russian LNG imports into Europe are up 42%, but won’t be next year. Moreover, LNG is now shockingly expensive, too. LNG tanker charter prices were recently $400,000 per day and were expected to hit $1 million.

Yes, Germany and other countries are now building new infrastructure, but none of it will be ready next year. Building new pipelines takes 1.5-4 years and LNG terminals need 2-5 years. It will take another 3-5 years, at a minimum, for the LNG markets to balance supply and demand. Meanwhile, few reasonable investors will pour billions into infrastructure projects with a 10-30 year breakeven timeline for fuels the world is trying to phase out in 8 years because of climate change. New fossil fuel projects may be redundant before they are even completed. In the meantime, in 2023 there will not be enough U.S. or Qatari liquified natural gas (LNG), nor Azerbaijani gas, nor Kenyan, nor Australian, nor any other to compensate for the total loss of Russian imports.

Protester hold a sign that reads "People over profits" as people march to demand a continued shift to renewable energy sources and reduction in fossil fuel dependence despite the current energy crisis on October 22, 2022 in Berlin, Germany.

Nor can renewables yet save the day. Wind and solar farms can be built relatively quickly and cheaply, but they cannot be used to power heating at a large scale because most households are not equipped with electric heaters or heat pumps. Replacing an entire country’s heating systems will take longer than a year. In any case, there are supply chain bottlenecks for solar panels and wind turbines, mostly because of China’s lockdwon policies, so this is not a viable option in the short term anyway. Nuclear power is also not a solution for the 2-5 year range because nuclear plants take 5-10 years to license and build. Biofuels and geothermal heating are promising technologies, but suffer from the same shortcomings—either they take too long to build or are not sufficiently scalable and thus unable to solve the immediate problem. While the energy crisis is proving an excellent stimulus for innovation, none of the new technologies it brings forth will be ready by 2023, or 2024, or probably even 2025.

Taken together, Europe is likely to be short by as much as 20% of its needed fuel in 2023. The bulk of what it can secure will come at a price so high that recession-hit governments will have trouble buying it while simultaneously paying their populations’ energy bills. Without the ability to bring new energy sources online in a hurry, the single tool governments have at their immediate disposal is cutting consumption. This is the equivalent of zipping up the tent in a hurricane, but it is what’s available. As the German experience in September shows, however, getting people to use less gas and electricity is very, very difficult. A mild winter in Europe this year will also make people less likely to conserve for 2023.

Of course, it’s not the rich countries of North America and northern Europe that will suffer the most through the energy crisis, whether this year or next. This energy crisis is global. Already poorer countries are facing blackouts, protests, and worse because European and Asian demand has driven fuel prices higher than developing countries can afford. Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Ecuador, and Haiti are just a few of the cash strapped countries rocked by energy inflation, fuels shortages, and the violent protests they triggered. Continued food insecurity due to lack of fertilizer and fuels will worsen, too, and unrest with them. And as scarce energy resources pit countries against each other, it is the those that were already behind that will lose on the market. These trends will accelerate when the real energy crisis hits in 2023 and 2024.

For fuel-rich countries, like the U.S., the consequences of the energy crisis escalating through 2023 will be mixed. On one hand, there is a lot of money to be made. The 2022 energy crisis has brought record profits to petroleum companies, which will continue as long as fuel shortages do. The large increase in U.S. LNG exports has meant massive profits for private U.S. petroleum companies, such as Exxon. The same is true for Norway. Norwegian gas imports into the E.U. are up 8% compared to last year, making it the E.U.’s top supplier since Russia mostly cut off gas exports. Equinor, the state-owned petroleum company, is expecting $82 billion more in 2022 and 2023 in energy revenues, up from $27 billion in 2021. Even embattled Venezuela could cash in—the White House was considering relaxing sanctions on Caracas to allow Chevron to bring more Venezuelan crude oil into play. China’s LNG arbitrage made for good money, too.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic and political fallout from the energy crisis will be felt everywhere, even in net energy exporting countries. Record energy prices have almost certainly pushed European and other countries into recession, which will necessarily reverberate in the U.S., Canada, OPEC countries, and elsewhere. Even in Norway, inflation has tripled, up from a 20-year average of 1.84% to almost 7% in September 2022. Economies are simply too interlinked for problems on one continent not to affect everywhere else.

Ägarna till "Ingenmansland"

För 35 euro och en flygbiljett till Haiti kan man köpa en slav. Detta var bara en av de svåra lärdomar som författaren Benjamin Skinner fick när han gjorde research för sin bok A “Crime So Monstrous” : Face-to-Face with Modern-Day Slavery.

När de internationella medierna började sända nyheterna om den telluriska händelsen som rasade med all sin vrede mot det haitiska folket hade det gått många timmar sedan händelsen. Detta kraftfulla slag, som valde Haitis hjärta som epicentrum, verkar ha känts olika av varje invånare på Hispaniola i något av de två länder som delar den. Jag kan inte ha varit något undantag.

Jag tillbringar större delen av min tid på 23:e våningen i den högsta byggnaden i Santo Domingo, på öns östra halva. Jag hade ett läkarbesök klockan 16.30 den ödesdigra dagen; det tar inte mer än tio minuter att ta sig från byggnaden som inrymmer kontoret där jag arbetar till kliniken där jag hade mitt möte. Det vill säga, naturligtvis, om det inte uppstår en av de trafikstockningar som bara förekommer i denna huvudstad, och det kan ta upp till en timme att köra några kvarter.

Jag var redan vid fyratiden på eftermiddagen på min läkarklinik. Ännu en gång var jag tvungen att upprepa några tester vars resultat hade varit konsekvent felaktiga. Min familjeläkare var bortrest. Så en kollega till honom fick i uppdrag att ta hand om mig. Klockan 43 minuter över fyra visade sjuksköterskan mig in i ett av mottagningsrummen.

-Var snäll och ta av dig tröjan", bad han mig artigt, även om artigheten inte helt överskuggade den känsla av främlingsskap som uppmaningen gav upphov till.

Medan jag tog av mig skjortan kom sjuksköterskan ut. Ensam i det där konsultrummet märkte jag att tiden gick längre än vanligt, och läkaren kom inte in i det lilla rummet. Väntan började göra mig otålig.

Och varför kommer inte läkaren, tänkte jag, sittande på båren? Vad är det som händer? Plötsligt började jag känna hur den lilla ram som jag vilade på rörde sig. Jag brydde mig inte om det. Båren rörde sig igen, men jag ägnade inte heller den någon större uppmärksamhet. Sedan kom en ännu kraftigare ryckning. Från utsidan, in i konsultationsrummet där jag var ensam, kom rösterna från läkarna och sjuksköterskorna.

-Han skakar! -Jag hörde en kvinnlig röst säga i alarm.

Den västindiska delen av planeten känner inte till hur våldsam denna vulkaniska ilska är. Jag tänkte för mig själv: hur är den här byggnaden konstruerad? Svaret jag fick var en känsla av misstro. Genom skriken och korridoren kände jag hur oron växte i korridoren när jordens svajande blev allt högre och högre.

-Det låter som en jordbävning", hörde jag någon säga med en skrämd röst.

-Ja, det verkar så", sa en annan.

Småningom började jorden ge vika i sitt obehag.

-Oh, vi glömde Don Victor Manuel i konsultrummet, utbrast sjuksköterskan som bad mig ta av mig skjortan. I det ögonblicket öppnade hon dörren och kom in.

-Ja, verkligen", sade jag, "de har glömt mig.

Klockan var knappt över fem på eftermiddagen. Det var tisdagen den 12 januari 2010. Sex minuter tidigare hade en jordbävning på 7,2 på Richterskalan slagit till. Epicentrum låg i den västra halvan av ön Hispaniola, närmare bestämt i Port-au-Prince, huvudstaden i Haiti, världens fattigaste land.

Det var på morgonen den 11:e som världen började få reda på konsekvenserna av jordbävningen. Den 13 januari, den tredje dagen efter händelserna, var den stora katastrofens ansikte omisskännligt i Haiti. Dominikanska republiken, där jag bor, som delar ö med Haiti, drabbades inte lika hårt. Detta grannland aktiverade omedelbart alla möjliga mekanismer för att hjälpa det haitiska folket.

Klockan fyra på morgonen den 14 januari var vi på väg till den haitisk-dominikanska gränsen, som ligger mer än 200 kilometer väster om Santo Domingo. Resan på väg tar ungefär tre och en halv timme.

Vi var en av de första organisationerna som anlände med bistånd till jordbävningsoffren för tre dagar sedan. Under de senaste åren har den stiftelse som jag arbetar för samarbetat med en amerikansk icke-statlig organisation (NGO) som ägnar sig åt hälsofrågor i Dominikanska republiken.

Dagen innan kontaktade vi deras representant i landet. Han informerade oss om att frivilliga från organisationen, främst läkare, morgonen efter jordbävningen åkte till Port-au-Prince, Haitis huvudstad. De arbetade på ett haitiskt gemenskapssjukhus i Pétion-Ville.

Sjukhuset var överväldigat av det betydande antalet skadade som behövde akutvård. Sjukhuset var osäkert. Läkarna kunde inte klara av det. Det fanns inte heller tillräckligt med mediciner eller ersättningsmaterial. Till och med amputationer och andra operationer utfördes utan morfin. Detta var en av de första beställningarna vi fick, tillsammans med antibiotika, vatten och en elgenerator.

Vid 8-tiden på morgonen anlände vi till Jimaní, en dominikansk stad som ligger på den södra gränsen mellan de två länderna. Den platsen, gränsen som skiljer Dominikanska republiken från Haiti, är en värld som motsvarar ett annat liv och andra ökända tider som finns där eländigt närvarande. Allt som händer längs den gränsen är förnedrande.

De två länderna är förvånansvärt nog åtskilda av taggtråd. Det finns två befästningar, en på den dominikanska och en på den haitiska sidan. Båda är uppsatta med samma slarv som fängslar, mellan de två, en sträcka som har fått det mycket speciella namnet "Ingenmansland".

Från "No Man's Land" på den haitiska sidan av gränsen tittar mystiska ansikten ut mot den andra halvan av ön. De höll sig fast vid taggtråd och förlorade sina ögon i vem vet vilken omloppsbana de befann sig i. Man vet inte vilket lidande som trycker på dem eller var de finner styrkan att fortsätta på den karga och ändlösa vägen för att klara sig själva. De är fångar i extrem fattigdom i hopp om att kunna korsa linjen för att undkomma den utarmade situation som dagligen överväldigar dem.

På andra sidan palissaden kan man se deras ansikten, som är väderbitna av den hårda solen, när de tänker gå över gränsen. Ansiktena är solbrända av hunger. Ansikten som är garvade av smärta. Ansikten som är garvade av sjukdom. Ansiktena garvade av elände. Ansikten som är vittrade av förtvivlan. Ansikten som är vittrade av det perversa arbete som är deras lott. Ansikten som är vittrade av neoslaveri. Ja, det är vad man kan kalla det slaveri på 35 euro som Benjamin Skinners beskriver så levande i en artikel i tidningen Foreign Policy. I texten, som publicerades i den spanska upplagan från april/maj 2008, står följande:

"New York är fem timmar från att kunna förhandla om att sälja en frisk pojke eller flicka i fullt dagsljus. Prostitution och hushållsarbete är deras vanliga destinationer. (...) "En slav är en människa som tvingas arbeta genom bedrägeri eller under hot om våld endast i utbyte mot en summa som räcker för att klara sig själv". Sådana förhandlingar kan enligt Skinners göras i Port-au-Prince framför frisörsalongen Le Réseau, som ligger på Rue de Delmas, en av huvudstadens mest trafikerade gator.

Linjen av taggtråd påminner om nazisternas koncentrationsläger. På den ena och den andra sidan känner man att korruption, människohandel, olaglig adoptionsverksamhet, informell handel, narkotikahandel och extrem fattigdom bor där. Alla dessa plågor utgör detta laglösa område utan möjligheter till någon som helst rest av ett värdigt liv. De är ägarna till "No Man's Land".

Till all denna olycka den dagen kom de skadade haitier som försökte korsa linjen för att få medicinsk hjälp. De kom för att deras land, ett av världens fattigaste, nu hade reducerats till ingenting av naturens destruktiva kraft.

Vår kontaktperson väntade på oss vid gränsen på den dominikanska sidan. Därifrån skulle vi ta med oss hjälpen vi bar till Haitis huvudstad. Vi hade en lång väntan medan vi fick tillstånd så att lastbilen och de säkerhetsstyrkor som eskorterade lasten kunde fortsätta sin väg till sjukhuset i Pétion-Ville.

Berättelserna från den vänliga företrädaren för den icke-statliga organisationen var hjärtskärande. Läkarna rom den minut de anlände till centret, hade inte slutat behandla och operera de som drabbats av skalvet. De gjorde det under rudimentära förhållanden. De hade varken elektricitet eller vatten. De antibiotika, lugnande medel och smärtstillande medel som de hade med sig räckte knappt till för de första timmarna av vård. Läkarna hade satt upp tält på byggnadens tak. De sov där under de få stunder som de tog för att vila.

När vi anlände till vårdcentralen i Pétion-Ville såg vi att verkligheten var ännu värre. Tusentals skadade människor tog skydd utanför vårdcentralen och väntade på att bli behandlade. Det var nästan omöjligt att gå på grund av antalet skadade som låg på marken. Det var en skrämmande bild som slog hårt mot våra känslor.

Enligt läkarna kunde ett kolerautbrott bryta ut när som helst med tanke på förhållandena i landet. Utan att slösa tid förberedde vi en lång lista över behov på sjukhuset. På uppdrag av den stiftelse som jag delar arbetsuppgifter med åtog jag mig att samla in så många förnödenheter som möjligt och återvända till Haiti om cirka fyra dagar.

Jag återvände till Dominikanska republiken med en bruten själ. På två dagar samlade vi in de mediciner och det material som behövdes för att fylla på. Vi packade allt i tre lastbilar och lämnade dem redo att föras till Pétion-Ville, en bergsstad på östra sidan av Haitis huvudstad. Vi skulle ta en helikopter till Port-au-Prince för att ta emot lasten på själva sjukhuset.

Vi åkte återigen till Haiti den 28 januari. Ungefär fyrtio minuter in i flygningen, när vi passerade gränsen, kunde vi länder se en drastisk förändring från helikoptern. Det är något som man märker direkt. Atmosfären går plötsligt från grönt till torrt. I århundraden har Haiti varit utsatt för skövling av sina skogar. När öns västra sida avträddes till Frankrike 1697 genom fördraget i Ryswik i Europa, hade franska bosättare påbörjat plantagesystemet mer än femtio år tidigare. Denna form av intensiv odling av jordbruksprodukter inledde en period av rikedom för Frankrike och var också början på omvandlingen av Haitis jord till en öken. Sedan dess har denna process inte avstannat än i dag.

När vi närmade oss Port-au-Prince med flyg började vi se den förstörelse som orsakats av jordbävningen och som vi inte hade sett tidigare när vi reste på land. Antalet byggnader och hus på marken, i spillror, var helt enkelt oräkneligt. De nya konstruktionerna, av tvivelaktig kvalitet, var ett lätt byte för jordrörelsens raseri.

På morgonen landade vi vid den dominikanska ambassadens helikopterflygplats i Haitis huvudstad. Trots att vi minutiöst hade samordnat oss med våra kontakter väntade de inte på oss i det diplomatiska högkvarteret. Vi ville åka omedelbart till sjukhuset i Pétion-Ville. Men det var omöjligt att ge sig av på stadens gator utan skydd av myndigheterna från Minustha (FN:s uppdrag för stabilisering av Haiti), den enda militära styrkan i Haiti sedan den lokala armén upplöstes 2004 i samband med USA:s intervention.

Det var först vid middagstid som vi lyckades lämna ambassaden och ta oss till sjukhuset. Efter att ha lämnat den dominikanska ambassaden går man uppför en kulle på en smal väg och kommer till en livlig gata. Man ser genast en skylt med namnet Pétion-Ville som anger vägens riktning. Du kan se skadorna överallt. Det förekommer ofta att bilar krossas av husplattor som faller över dem. Carabinieri som bär den chilenska flaggan på sina axlar står vakt vid vissa hörn.

En spontan marknad hade bildats där skylten som visade vilken väg man skulle följa stod. Fattigdomen och de hygieniska förhållandena på denna mikromarknad är häpnadsväckande. En gammal kvinna, med ryggen lutad mot väggen, halvt sittande i luften och med sin långa kjol hängande nedåt, tvättar ett knippe persilja med det smutsiga vatten som rinner nerför gatan i avsaknad av avlopp. På den tiden kännetecknades Port-au-Prince av en outhärdlig stank som tvingade till ständig användning av näsdukar över näsor och munnar.

Vi rörde oss långsamt på väg till sjukhuset. Vägen är brant, smal, slingrande och oftast överbelastad av fordonstrafik; dessutom fanns det på grund av jordbävningsskadorna elstolpar som vreds in i vägen med några meters mellanrum, nedfallna träd och bråte. Vid en viss punkt på sträckan försökte förbipasserande att stoppa skåpbilarna i en brottslig handling. Men den orubbliga militären avlossade skott i luften och skrämde bort dem. Förarna kör defensivt. Trots svårigheterna försökte de öka farten som om någon följde efter oss.

Vi närmade oss äntligen vårdcentralen. Plötsligt såg jag hundratals flerfärgade tält som ställts upp runt kliniken. De skadade bodde där tillsammans med sina familjer och fördrivna personer, trängda i bräckliga, små utrymmen som inte var mer än två eller tre meter breda gånger två meter långa och mindre än höjden på en genomsnittlig person som står upprätt. Bland tälten, som nästan alla var gjorda av plast och där golvet bestod av jord, rådde en infernalisk värme, särskilt under dagen. Under dessa förhållanden åt, sov och avlöste de sig själva.

Chauffören parkerade vid vad som verkade vara sjukhuset från dörrarna. Dussintals människor rusade mot oss. Det var en handling som skapade ögonblick av fara. Vi frågade ihärdigt efter vår kontaktperson, men ingen kände honom. Vi gick in i sjukhusbyggnaden, som hade blivit ett rum av kaos. Människor sprang från den ena sidan till den andra. Vi kunde höra skrik och rop av smärta. De skadade fanns överallt. Man kunde till och med se dem på sjukhusgården, ute i det fria.

Smärtan ligger i luften. Man fick inte ta till sig betydelsen av bedövningsmedel. Morfin var av en slump det första vi överlämnade till en läkare som rusade ut ur en operationssal och stötte på oss. Efter att ha pratat med honom en stund och sett hans ansiktsuttryck av lättnad över den information vi gav honom, förde läkaren oss in i operationssalen för att visa oss under vilka förhållanden operationerna utfördes. Jag såg en skadad kvinna på golvet, plågad av lidande. Det var alltför chockerande att se detta ansikte fångat av modlöshet. Ett svårt misshandlat barn låg ensamt på golvet, hjälplöst på en bår. En hel legion av sjuka människor låg i korridorerna och väntade på att bli behandlade.

Läkarna var inte i ett tillstånd av full klarhet. De hade vida överskridit de kontinuerliga arbetstimmarna inför verklighetens motgångar. Instinkt och självuppoffring fick dem att fortsätta sitt humanitära arbete mitt i denna danteska scen av död och smärta. De bilder som iscensattes där var imponerande på grund av verklighetens dysterhet. Men bland sjukvårdspersonalen och människorna fanns det, även under den uppenbara oredan, en intuitiv ordning som övervann den dramatiska situationen.

I olika hörn av sjukhuset försökte andra frivilliga att återställa administrativ ordning på platsen. De sorterade mediciner, sorterade mat och kontrollerade vattenförsörjningen. Andra talade med patienter för att registrera deras identitet.

En volontär tog oss med upp på byggnadens tak. När vi gick upp såg jag en detalj som jag inte såg vid min första resa. Många av sjukhusets väggar var spruckna. På övervåningen visade han oss det lilla lägret där de frivilliga läkarna vilade för mycket korta stunder.

Vi hade gjort vårt jobb. Men i stället för tillfredsställelse lämnade vi sjukhuset med en rad känslor på gränsen till kramp. Vi tröstades av det åtagande vi hade gjort att fortsätta att göra en samarbetsinsats under den desperata nödsituation som Haiti genomgick. Och vi levererade.

På flyget tillbaka till Santo Domingo var mina tankar mer förvirrade än någonsin. Den försämrade situation som detta lilla karibiska land befann sig i på 2000-talet var ständigt närvarande i mitt huvud. Sanningen och det ärliga är, och det måste sägas, att det var mycket svårt att finna något hopp som skulle kunna bidra till att förändra det ofattbara tillståndet för denna före detta franska kolonis olycka. De mest aktiva medlemmarna av det internationella samfundet såg ut att försöka betala utestående skulder till denna olyckliga stat. Vid tiden för tragedin lovade de högljutt en Marshallplan för återuppbyggnaden av landet. Paradoxalt nog, och inte förvånande, fick detta försök till samarbete inget gensvar från Frankrike.

Tidningar över hela världen kommenterade den unika möjligheten i Haitis historia att få landet att ta sig ur sitt misslyckade tillstånd. En internationell kommission med den förre presidenten Bill Clinton som ordförande inrättades för att förverkliga dessa ideal. Internationella toppmöten hölls för att hitta sätt att effektivisera samarbetet. I motsats till sunt förnuft hölls det första toppmötet i ett av de fattigaste länderna på ett av de dyraste och lyxigaste hotellen i Karibien. Sanningen är att samarbetet inte har nått Haiti. Det lilla stöd som har mottagits har varit helt obetydligt jämfört med vad som utlovades. Femtiotusen ursäkter har sökts för att rättfärdiga varför det inte har varit möjligt att göra återuppbyggnaden av denna lilla nation livskraftig. Vissa förklaras, andra är mindre förklarliga. Under tiden är Haiti tyvärr fortfarande den plats på planeten där man efter fem timmars bilresa från Manhattan till Port-au-Prince kan köpa en slav för 35 euro.

-Once upon a time, a long time ago... an old monk lived in an orthodox monastery. His name was Pamve.

Undoubtedly, Tarkovsky's thoughts on life from a deep philosophical and poetic conviction; surviving within an alienating, oppressive and totalitarian society, made him see the facts greyer than the common denominator of his fellow countrymen in their coexistence with the absurd system. (Tarkovsky 1986)

-Once upon a time, a long time ago... an old monk lived in an orthodox monastery.  His name was Pamve.   Once he planted a dry tree on a hillside...  Then he told his young disciple, a monk named Loann Kolov, that he should water the tree every day until it came back to life.  So, early every morning Loann filled a bucket with water and went out.   He would go up the mountain and water the dry tree and, in the evening, when darkness had fallen, he would return to the monastery.  He did this for three years. And one day he went up and saw that the whole tree was full of shoots. Whatever they say, a method, a system, has its virtues. You know, sometimes I say to myself, if every day, at the same time, one was to perform the same act, like a ritual, unchanging, systematic, every day at the same time, we would do the same thing, the world would change...