Iran's Conflict with Israel…A Dangerous Spiral of Violence in the Middle East

The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out? (Der Spiegel-Today)

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A Planetary Crisis Awaits the Next President

New York Times article by Stephen Markley, Today.

“I fully admit, Mr. Biden was not my first, nor even my seventh, choice in the 2020 Democratic primary. Yet when it came to the immense challenge of confronting this crisis, I am forever grateful that he proved me wrong, delivering a game-changing victory with the narrowest of congressional margins. Even as much of the rest of Mr. Biden’s ambitious policy agenda got hacked away in Congress, one thing remained: re-industrialization through clean energy investment.

This led to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation the country has ever seen and a more important achievement than the Paris climate accord. In just two years, that bill has galvanized clean energy investment in the United States and set a pace for the rest of the world to compete in the growing clean energy economy. These investments are expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. That growth in clean energy is not only breaking records by the year but also by the quarter, with the end of 2023 seeing a 40 percent increase in investments in clean energy and transportation over the last quarter of 2022….

Read the full articles in this edition.

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All rights of artwork by Germán & Co.

“The Dark Day: Europe's Energy Crisis Unveiled… "Th3 Delicate Balancing Act of Political Reckoning: 'The Unpredictable Consequences of Fundamental Political Matters'"

In the realm of politics, there exist certain matters so sensitive, so inherently fragile, that their mere existence can send shockwaves through the social and political fabric of a nation. These issues, oftentimes underpinned by deep-rooted historical, cultural, or ideological tensions, have the potential to disrupt the delicate balance that holds societies together.

https://energycentral.com/c/og/exclusive-%E2%80%9C-dark-day-europes-energy-crisis-unveiled%E2%80%A6

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Wishing you all the very best, and above all, abundant health at the end of this Sabbath.

It's becoming evident that European leaders are actively working on strategies to address the gas supply challenges plaguing the continent.  Why?  The transition to a new renewable energy source has caused bureaucratic challenges, including extended permit procedures, technical issues with the grid, and opposition from the environmental movement.  Believe it or not, The Sámi in Swedish Lapland have protested against the construction of wind farms, arguing that the noise from the generators' blades has a psychological impact on the reindeer population in that serene and picturesque region.

The concept of the "unforeseeable consequences of fundamental political issues" is frequently overlooked, as evidenced by the detonation of the Nord Stream pipeline in the North Sea.  Despite Washington's advice against detonating this strategic facility, the decision was not overturned.  The explosion on 22 September 2022, occurred in a matter of seconds, causing an estimated 7.5 billion euros in damage and, worse, cutting off the only gas supply to the continent.  This major geopolitical incident is distinct from the recent bombing at the Iranian embassy in Damascus by Israeli forces.

Washington's counsel to avoid detonating this strategic energy facility was disregarded. In the blink of an eye, an explosion occurred, resulting in an estimated 7.5 billion euros in damage and, more significantly, the cessation of the continent's sole gas supply. It is possible to posit that the pipe was devoid of gas due to the Kremlin's supply restriction. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that the world and life are not static entities. Change is an ever-present aspect of our existence that we must embrace and adapt to. However, it is difficult to envision President Vladimir Putin remaining indefinitely in the expansive realm of Eurasia.  The most recent bellicose geopolitical event, which was arguably both reckless and mean, involved the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, causing widespread concern and condemnation from the international community. It comes as no surprise that Washington was not informed about this particular incident, as doing so could have potentially hindered the operation's progress.

Finally, the primary concern is not solely the "Talion" law, which stands between opposing forces, but rather Putin's mindset. Mr. Henry Kissinger articulated this perspective during a profound interview with Portofalio magazine, conducted at the renowned French restaurant Jubilee in downtown Manhattan, New York, on July 27, 2018. Kissinger observed that although Putin does not mirror historical figures such as Hitler, he does exhibit traits akin to characters from Dostoevsky's esteemed novels. This insight highlights the extensive impact of Putin's choices, resulting in what Kissinger describes as "imperial contamination." The effects of this are evident in current disputes like the one between Venezuela and Guyana, which exemplify the enduring human inclination to place power above everything in the quest for dominance. 

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AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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 Iranian drones have been utilized by Russia to target Ukraine. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.

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The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out?

"Der Spiegel," authored by Susanne Koelbl, Christoph Reuter, Thore Schröder, and Bernhard Zand, dated April 19, 2024.

The uranium enrichment plant in Natanz is located halfway between the cities of Isfahan and Kashan. The only things visible from the highway are warehouses and workshops. Most of the plant is buried in tunnels, well over 60 meters below the surface – difficult to destroy even with the most powerful American bunker-busting bombs, it is said.

It is almost impossible to see what is happening underground here from the outside. What is known is that this is the site where Iran is further developing its nuclear program, which the international community had hoped to end using diplomatic means – and which Israel and many of Iran's Arab neighbors feel threatened by.

This is truer than ever following Iran's attack on Israel in the night of April 14, when the regime in Tehran launched a salvo of more than 300 drones, rockets and ballistic missiles in the country's direction.

Outside of Israeli security circles, no one knows exactly what possible targets in Iran the military planners are currently discussing in the event that war with Iran does indeed break out one day. But it is likely that, in addition to military bases, airports and oil facilities, the locations of the nuclear program will also be considered.

Around 170 kilometers north of Natanz, between Tehran and Qom, the city that is the world's largest center of Shiite scholarship, is the Fordo nuclear facility, also hidden underground. Some 150 kilometers further to the west, near the industrial city of Arak, there is another nuclear facility with a research reactor and a heavy water reactor.

An Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program is the maximum variant of retaliation that is currently conceivable. It would be a bold move, feasible, if at all, only with the help of the United Sates – and with incalculable consequences for the rest of the world.

The danger of a major war in the Middle East is currently greater than ever. The risk remains just as high now that Israel apparently responded with a limited strike early on Friday morning.

It still isn't entirely clear what happened. According to Iranian reports, there were several explosions near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. Reports from the U.S. media, which cite unnamed Israeli and Iranian sources, indicated that it could have been an attack involving drones, possibly near an air force base. Iran initially played the incident down. It also remained unclear whether Israel would follow up with further strikes – or whether Iran would react once again.

The New York Times reported that four options had been discussed in Israel in the preceding days: a strike against an Iranian facility outside Iran, such as a Revolutionary Guard base in Syria; an attack on a "symbolic target" inside Iran; a cyberattack on the country's infrastructure – and an intensification of acts of sabotage or targeted killings inside Iran, of the type Israel's foreign intelligence service has allegedly been carrying out for years.

Reports coming out of Isfahan point to the second option. And it does seem fitting given that in military retaliation operations, states are usually keen to "thematically link" the counterstrike, as Fabian Hinz of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) puts it. To strike a specific unit or base that they believe to be responsible for the original attack, for example. That concept is at least one common denominator shared by countries as different and hostile as Israel and Iran.

Ever since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7 and the war in Gaza, there has been an increased possibility of a broader war pitting Israel, the U.S. and their allies against Iran and its proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. But despite the fact that Iran has co-financed the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, or that Israel is involved in battles with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah or that Houthi militias allied with Iran are launching drones from Yemen towards Israel, a larger conflagration has yet to be sparked.

It would be a war that could set the entire region between the Levant and the Hindukush on fire. "A war with Iran could destroy emirates such as Abu Dhabi or Dubai within 24 hours," the American Iran expert Vali Nasr said in an interview with DER SPIEGEL. Such a war could jeopardize global oil supplies, disrupt international trade and strengthen Russia and China.

It is a war that few people want. But wars don't always arise because someone decides to start them, sometimes they are the result of events that develop a momentum that no one can escape. Sometimes it is overreactions or miscalculations that set off a spiral of escalation.

What is the history of the current crisis?

On the night of April 14, an event occurred that had the potential to start a major war: It was Iran's first direct military attack on Israel. Iran's regime launched a massive airstrike with more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. The Shahed drones flew west for hours. It didn't take long to detect them, but it was nonetheless an attempt to demonstrate military power.

None of the drones and very few missiles reached their targets. Most had been shot down by Israel, the U.S. or their allies before they reached Israeli airspace, even by neighboring Arab country Jordan. Israel's missile defense took care of most of the rest. Considering the scale of the attack, the civilian and military damage was minor. The only victim known by name: a seven-year-old Bedouin girl in the Negev desert who was injured.

The geopolitical consequences, however, are enormous. For the first time in the decades-long shadow war between the two hostile countries, both have now attacked the other from their own territory. The former Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Ahmad Dastmalchian spoke of a "paradigm shift" in Iran's "defense policy." "Now, at the latest, Iran has passed the point of no return," said Michael Roth, the chair of the Foreign Policy Committee in the Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament.

But the Iranian attack wasn't the first cross-border assault in this conflict. An Iranian consulate and residence building in Syria's capital city Damascus was destroyed in an April 1 airstrike, presumably by Israel. Sixteen people, including Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and other high-ranking officers and civilians were killed. Attacks on diplomatic missions are considered to be taboo by the international community, but for Iran, it was a public humiliation. As usual, Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack, but also made no effort to deny it.

That's how the logic of strike and counterstrike began. After Iran's attack last weekend, Israeli Army Spokesman Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday: "We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression." Iran will not "get off scot-free."

In the event the Israelis struck, the regime in Iran said it would strike back. And that this retaliation would be "much more serious" than the attack on April 13, an adviser to Iranian President Ebrahim Rasi said. If Israel "makes another mistake," said Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, the country "will not have 12 days, a day or hours. The next strike will take place within seconds and has already been approved."

And even if the Israeli reaction now appears to have been rather mild and Iran has so far shown no signs of a renewed counter-reaction: The conflict between Israel and Iran is now being played out openly. The shadow war is no longer in the shadows. And the danger remains great that the conflict will escalate further – if not now, then in the coming weeks, months or years.

Israel's path to this escalation is closely linked to one name: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the rise of the political right.

But how did Iran, the major Shiite power in the Middle East, become Israel's archenemy? Is there a way to slow down this extreme confrontation, which threatens to erupt into an open, and possibly one day nuclear, war? The question lingering over everything is this: How can Iran still be prevented from building a nuclear bomb?

At what point could Iran have a nuclear bomb?

When asked whether Iran was already capable of building a bomb, the former head of the Iranian nuclear authority, Ali Akbar Salehi, recently replied in a television interview: "Imagine what a car needs; it needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox. You're asking if we've made the gearbox, I say yes. Have we made the engine? Yes."

The physicist and weapons expert David Albright, a former inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), puts it more precisely. According to his estimate, Iran needs around six months to produce what is called a "crude" bomb that could be carried on a ballistic missile. However, this would require a decision from Revolutionary Leader Khamenei to lift the ban he imposed in 2003 on the production of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction. A growing number of voices are now urging Khamenei to do precisely that. But so far, according to Albright, this decision apparently has not yet been made.

For a long time, it appeared that Iran could be dissuaded from building a bomb through diplomatic means: In 2015, the regime, which was ruled by a reform-oriented president at the time, concluded an agreement with the backing of the U.S., the European Union, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany. The so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran deal, called for Tehran to forfeit 97 percent of its low-enriched uranium. The stockpile of enriched uranium was to be exported almost entirely to Russia.

All of this took place in a different, more hopeful world: The West, Russia and China were still working together back then. In the meantime, the geopolitical situation has changed considerably. China and Russia are now firmly on Iran's side against the American-led world order. At a recent crisis meeting on Iran involving the U.S. and other countries, China and Russia were not even present.

Hardliners on all sides always wanted to torpedo the Iran deal: in Israel, the forces around Benjamin Netanyahu, the conservatives in Iran – and right-wing Republicans in the U.S. The main argument against the deal was that it didn't include Iran's missile program or its aggressive proxy forces in the Middle East. Proponents of the deal believed that they would be able to negotiate these issues in the next steps. But in 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew his country from the deal. His successor Joe Biden has tried to revive it, but those efforts have so far been in vain.

The International Atomic Energy Agency still has access to Iran's nuclear facilities, but entry has been severely restricted since the termination of the deal. "In the current chaos in the Middle East, they could try to use an excuse to deny the inspectors access to the enrichment facilities for a few days, as they did on the day of the drone attack on Israel," says former inspector Albright. It's not very difficult to increase the enrichment from 60 to 90 percent, meaning the amount needed for producing weapons-grade material.

Albright believes it is possible that Khamenei will reverse his decision "if the survival of the nation is at stake. They are so close that this alone could make it tempting to build the bomb. Still, the Iranians will have to weigh up what that means" – a likely war with Israel and possibly also with the U.S.

Conversely, Israel and the U.S. would also have to ask themselves what Iran's renewed response might look like. In any case, Israel has only limited possibilities for destroying Iran's nuclear program. "I think it is more likely that Israel will give a response that strengthens its deterrent but does not challenge Iran to a major attack."

Why were protests by women unable to topple the regime?

In the West, we have recently heard almost exclusively about protests in Iran: about the women in Tehran and other cities who threw off their headscarves a year and a half ago, about demonstrations in Kurdistan and Baluchistan, where participants were repeatedly killed with targeted shots.

The protests didn’t topple the regime, but they did demonstrate how great is the chasm between large segments of the population and the country’s rulers. Most Iranians don’t think much of the regime, and many don’t consider themselves to be in a conflict with Israel. At the same time, however, a faction of ultra-hardliners has developed in recent years – in parliament, among the clerics and among commanders of the Revolutionary Guards – called Jebhe-ye Paydari, or the Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution. And for them, the leadership of the aging Khamenei is too lax.

Instead of compromise, this group is demanding toughness, born out of a messianic tradition. The Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution, the Economist recently wrote, "are to Iran what the religious hard right are to Israel."

Step by step, these extremists are pushing the pragmatists out of the country’s circles of power. They are even enforcing the hated hijab requirement for women once again: On the day of the Iranian air attacks on Israel, the regime once again sent the morality police into the streets. And these hardliners are upping the pressure to transform the anti-Israeli and anti-Western propaganda into a real military conflict. Faced with the decision between losing face or getting Iran involved in a large war in the Middle East, they tend to favor the latter.

Where did the animosity between Iran and Israel come from?

The acrimony between the two countries is not rooted in a long, bellicose history. It began as a propaganda project of the Iranian Revolution, which put an end to the country’s monarchy in 1978-79.

Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Iran became one of the first countries to recognize Israel in 1948. The secret services of the two countries cooperated, and both states were united by their distance to their Arab neighbors. The young country of Israel helped Iran develop its agricultural sector and bought oil from the country.

Historian David Menashri, 79, was born as the son of Jewish parents in Tehran before emigrating with his parents to Israel, but he also spent several years in Iran in the 1970s. At that time, he says, the two countries had a relationship "like a marriage without a license" – a rapport that was shaped by religion from the very beginning. On the one hand, both countries considered themselves to be "chosen by God" by virtue of their long histories, says Menashri. But on the other, anti-Semitism had a long history in Iran.

There was, for example, a rule according to which Iranian Jews were not allowed to leave their homes when it was raining, because they were considered najis, ritually unclean, and water dripping off of them would allegedly impurify the streets. The shah, says Menashri, knew that he couldn’t be particularly open about his ties with the Israelis. The Israeli Embassy in Tehran did not fly the country’s flag and while the airline El Al had daily flights to the Iranian capital, those flights were not publicly displayed at Mehrabad Airport.

It was revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini who declared Israel to be "Little Satan." The designation "Great Satan” was reserved for the U.S., which had provided the shah with military support for years. Kohmeini accused Israel of being an "enemy of Islam" and declared an annual Al-Quds Day, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem – though during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Khomeini had no compunctions about importing arms from Israel through secret channels. Israel’s leadership likewise kept open the possibility of resuming closer cooperation with Iran at some point in the future. For Khomeini, the Jewish state was a useful tool for whipping up the fervor of his followers. "If Israel hadn’t existed," says David Menashri, "his regime would have had to invent it."

Indeed, one reason Iranian propaganda later targeted Israel and the U.S. was because it so accurately reflected the mood on the streets of Arab countries, with which Iran was at odds and whose leaders were generally allied with the U.S.

Who actually rules Iran?

The Iranian regime is stable primarily due to its unique construction. Standing over everything is the country’s religious leader, Ali Khamenei.

In 1979, revolutionary leader Khomeini established the Pasdaran, the Revolutionary Guards, as a protective force against the country’s regular army, who Khomeini suspected of being disloyal.

Today, the Pasdaran, with almost 350,000 men, is the most powerful military force in Iran and has its own ground, air and naval forces in addition to an arsenal of missiles. The country’s nuclear program is also part of its portfolio as is the large Basij militia, which keeps close tabs on schools, universities, factories and official agencies to ensure that no opposition is allowed to develop.

The Revolutionary Guards are not under the control of the country’s elected president or the parliament, instead answering only to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who took charge when Khomeini died in 1989. He holds vastly more power than President Ebrahim Raisi, though the president is also considered to be a Khamenei ally.

The Pasdaran has become the gravitational center of the Iranian state. In addition to its military strength, it also has gigantic holdings through which it dominates every sector of the Iranian economy, including banks, construction companies, supermarket chains, oil refineries, airports, luxury hotels, eye clinics and newspapers.

But as sprawling as its economic empire is, the Pasadaran keeps its influence largely under wraps. Estimates as to the group’s contribution to Iran’s gross social product vary between one-third and two-thirds. General strikes of the kind that toppled the monarchy in 1978-79 become difficult when the regime also controls a majority of the economy.

Why is Iran spreading its influence across the Middle East?

From the very beginning, Khomeini’s Islamic Republic was anything but a peaceful state. But instead of seeing today’s archrival Israel as its biggest enemy, the focus was more on countries like Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, all of which the regime saw as rivals for the political, religious and economic dominance of the Middle East. To secure Iran’s influence in the region, the foreign, elite branch of the Pasdaran, the Al-Quds Brigades, was founded in 1988, named for the Arabic word for Jerusalem.

In the late 1990s, a man named Qassem Soleimani – a largely unknown officer at the time – took over control of the Al-Quds force. Marked by the horrors of the Iran-Iraq conflict, Soleimani set about building something new – a hybrid army made up of other nationalities but which would remain under his control. Soleimani was from the mountains of southern Iran, was fluent in the unwritten rules of the tribes, had experience as a wartime commander, exuded charisma and spoke perfect Arabic.

Over the course of several years, he discreetly built up a shadow army over which the Iranians had full control, but which didn’t involve Iranians themselves fighting and dying. His model foresaw providing financial and military support to fellow Shiites in other countries, religiously indoctrinating them and then deploying them as bridgeheads in the Arab world. The blueprint was the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. Israel marched into the country in 1982 in order to drive out the leadership of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). In spring 2000, the Israelis withdrew, and Hezbollah posed as the country’s liberators.

Three years later, in 2003, a golden opportunity arose for Iran to expand its power: The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the country’s dictator. The majority of Iraqis are Shiites, and it didn’t take Iran long to fill the power vacuum. A growing number of militias were trained by Soleimani’s men.

The 2011 uprising in Syria as part of the Arab Spring provided the next opportunity. The Assad-family dictatorship in Damascus was Iran’s only Arab ally – and it couldn’t be allowed to fall. Indeed, Syria became the ultimate proving grounds for Soleimani’s creation. As of 2014, Iraqis began fighting at division strength in the region surrounding the Syrian capital of Aleppo, led by Hezbollah officers from Lebanon. Shiites from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen served as cannon fodder for the front lines. And Iran was pulling the strings.

General David Petraeus, who led the U.S. forces in Iraq in 2008, received what he says was a secret message at the time: "General Petraeus, you should know that I, Qassem Suleimani, control the policy for Iran with respect to Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan." It wasn’t bragging, it was just the truth.

Because Soleimani’s troops didn’t just battle it out with local forces, but increasingly with U.S. units as well, then-U.S. President Donald Trump made a far-reaching decision in January 2020: He had General Soleimani killed at the Baghdad airport using Hellfire missiles. Iran still hasn’t completely recovered from the loss, with Soleimani’s successor lacking his stature. But many of the militias once controlled by Soleimani still exist – and some, such as the Houthis in Yemen, have even grown stronger. "Their proximity to Iran gives them power over their competitors," says Middle East expert Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute in Washington. "Then: the weapon systems, suicide drones, missiles, plus the training effects. It's the complete package. It is truly a network, fascinating. Each of them operates in their own environment. They are part and parcel of a regional network."

Iran reacted to the assassination of Soleimani by firing missiles at U.S. military bases. But the response was far more modest than the attack unleashed on Israel following the killing of its generals in Damascus.

Why didn’t Iran’s allies launch attacks after October 7?

Many Western observers were surprised that Tehran and Hezbollah clearly held back following the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In truth, however, such reserve has not been uncommon in recent decades. Despite all the propaganda against the "Zionist entity," Soleimani’s successor in recent years has reportedly argued internally against provocations of Israel. Tehran may support Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, all of which are enemies of Israel, but control over Arab countries has always been more important to Tehran.

According to U.S. intelligence, Hamas launched the October 7 attack on its own and hoped that Hezbollah and Iran would join the war they started.

But that was never their intention, and now – after years of bellicose anti-Israeli and anti-Western propaganda – the Iranians found themselves facing a dilemma. That has been readily apparent by Hezbollah’s attempts since October 7 to lead a limited war across the Israeli border.

Revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei, recalls Israeli Iran expert Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a think tank in Tel Aviv, once said that Iran occasionally had to operate "like a boxer" and take punches if it served to achieve larger strategic aims.

What next?

The recent escalation between Iran and Israel – one which appears to have brought the Middle East closer than ever to a large conflict – was apparently the product of a far-reaching misjudgment three weeks ago. Israel’s government and security services came to the conclusion ahead of their April 1 airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that the leadership in Tehran would react to this strike with a relatively moderate response – as had been the case following a series of similar attacks in recent months.

Even though the Israelis had previously killed more than a dozen pro-Iran militia leaders in Syria and Lebanon, the attack on the consulate in Damascus "crossed a red line,” says Zimmt. "Apparently those responsible hadn’t registered that the Iranians could not accept the killing of such senior commanders, particularly at this place."

An extensive New York Times report confirmed that not only did the Israelis fail to coordinate with their allies in Washington ahead of the attack in Damascus, they also underestimated the fact "that the unwritten rules of engagement in the long-simmering conflict between Israel and Iran have changed drastically in recent months.”

Since October 7, the result has been "escalation after escalation and miscalculation after miscalculation." And that has raised fears "of a retribution cycle that could potentially become an all-out war."

And with Iran and Israel firing on each other more directly than ever before, this danger has not exactly grown smaller.

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The Phoenix symbolizes former President Donald Trump. What is coming up in November?

Artwork - All rights reserved by Germán & Co.

Do not limit your imagination…

The New York Times article by Stephen Markley, dated April 20, 2024.

In the 12 years it took me to write “The Deluge,” my novel of the climate crisis, I watched as chaotic weather, record temperatures and shocking political events outpaced my imagination. The book depicts the human tipping point, when the damage becomes irreversible and the foundations of our economy, our politics and our world begin to crack. The plot points I was concocting in 2010 would become a constant drumbeat of headlines into 2024.

Last year alone, the warning signs included soaring ocean temperatures, a record loss of Antarctic Sea ice and the highest global average temperature in recorded human history. Wildfires, droughts, floods and extreme weather of every variety have come to shock even the scientists who study the shocking stuff. This is not the history we want to be living through.

Yet here we are, and those gears of history will grind together again this year as another presidential election meets our permanent emergency. The stakes of the climate crisis render the cliché of “This is the most important election of our lifetimes” increasingly true because every four years those stakes climb precipitously alongside the toppling records of a radically new climatic regime.

The White House may soon be recaptured by Donald Trump, who called the climate crisis a “hoax” and even when backing off that assertion insisted, “I don’t know that it’s man-made.” He has demonstrated his thinking again and again, as when he told a scientist, “It’ll start getting cooler, you just watch.”

There has recently been a great deal of reporting on Project 2025, a 900-plus-page road map for a second Trump administration assembled by the conservative Heritage Foundation. On climate, the report is succinct: “The Biden administration’s climate fanaticism will need a whole-of-government unwinding.”

The report recommends a repeal of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act, which would shred the tax credits that have led to hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in clean energy, the jump-starting of factory openings and the creation of jobs in virtually every corner of the country. Also lost will be investments in environmental justice, those measures that aim to reduce pollution in marginalized communities, provide affordable clean energy and create jobs in low-income neighborhoods. As for electric cars, which are critical to meeting the nation’s climate goals, the report recommends an end to all federal mandates and subsidies.

A second Trump administration would most likely grant permits for fossil fuel drilling and pipelines basically anywhere it has the say-so, scrap the methane fee on oil and gas producers and dismantle new pollution limits on cars, trucks and power plants. It would almost certainly revoke California’s waiver to approve higher standards under the Clean Air Act, seek repeal of the Antiquities Act used to protect endangered landscapes and attempt to gut the Endangered Species Act.

A changing climate, a changing world

The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.

The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.

What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.

But perhaps most ominously, a Trump presidency would impede Americans’ ability to find out what’s being done to them. Project 2025 proposes dismantling and privatizing parts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency that studies and monitors the climate, and using an executive order to “reshape” the Global Change Research Program, apparently to muddy its assessments of the pace of climate change and the potential impact. We would walk into this new dark era with a blindfold on.

Mr. Trump is at heart a billionaire doing favors for other billionaires by cutting their taxes and eliminating or not enforcing rules that protect the rest of us from asthma and cancer. During his four years in office, he managed to dismantle or degrade over 100 environmental rules, which brought real-world death and suffering. The medical journal The Lancet estimated that in the year 2019 alone these policies led to 22,000 excess deaths from heart disease, asthma and lung cancer, among other causes.

For all the damage that was done, Mr. Trump and his administration fortunately proved incompetent at making the government fulfill his intentions. We shouldn’t delude ourselves with thinking that he and his allies will be caught as flatfooted as they were by their surprise victory in 2016. What Project 2025 demonstrates is that an enormous amount of thinking has gone in to how to destroy the government’s capacity to enforce environmental protections, conduct research or even assess the scientific reality of our situation. Of course, the worst-case scenario, a full or partial repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, will depend on the composition of Congress.

My advice is to not tell yourself comforting bedtime stories about the political resiliency of that law when so many of its benefits lie in the years ahead.

One can hold up a document like Project 2025 and shout from the rooftops just how extreme it is. One can attempt to use numbers to describe this danger. But everyone will fall short — and, surely, I’ve fallen short — in describing just how frightening a second Trump presidency could actually be.

Do not limit your imagination…

Mr. Trump himself offered a glimpse in a recent meeting with oil and gas executives at Mar-a-Lago, where, The Washington Post reported, he said, “I hate wind.” He also told the executives that they should contribute to his campaign, that his policies would be much better for oil and gas than President Biden’s and that he’d do much of what they wanted “on Day 1.”

History will fork, and in a single day our window of opportunity for keeping the climate crisis from spiraling out of control could very well slam shut. Global emissions must peak this decade and begin a rapid decline for the world to have any chance of avoiding catastrophic warming. When I began writing my novel, we had something like 20 years to accomplish that task. After the election, we will have 62 months.

This makes the 2024 election a singular event in the climate crisis. Despite a number of headwinds, renewable energy capacity boomed last year, increasing 50 percent globally. According to the International Energy Agency, global renewable capacity is on course to be at two and a half times current levels by 2030, which means the world is edging closer to achieving a key climate target of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. The risks of the crisis are growing rapidly, but so is our capacity to confront this challenge at the speed and scale necessary. We must accelerate that momentum at all costs.

The other major candidate in the race, President Biden, has been a steadfast proponent of that acceleration.

I fully admit, Mr. Biden was not my first, nor even my seventh, choice in the 2020 Democratic primary. Yet when it came to the immense challenge of confronting this crisis, I am forever grateful that he proved me wrong, delivering a game-changing victory with the narrowest of congressional margins. Even as much of the rest of Mr. Biden’s ambitious policy agenda got hacked away in Congress, one thing remained: re-industrialization through clean energy investment.

This led to the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the most significant climate legislation the country has ever seen and a more important achievement than the Paris climate accord. In just two years, that bill has galvanized clean energy investment in the United States and set a pace for the rest of the world to compete in the growing clean energy economy. These investments are expected to create more than nine million jobs over the next decade. That growth in clean energy is not only breaking records by the year but also by the quarter, with the end of 2023 seeing a 40 percent increase in investments in clean energy and transportation over the last quarter of 2022.

As those industries of decarbonization spread to every state and to many congressional districts, people’s lives and livelihoods increasingly will become intertwined and invested in clean energy. When a Texas congressman can’t survive an election in a solidly Republican district without the backing of the wind and solar industries, when a battery factory in Hardin County, Ky., is employing 5,000 people, when the fossil fuel economy is falling to the zero-carbon infrastructure we demand, that will change a politician’s calculations. The increasing political and economic clout of those clean energy industries will challenge the fossil fuel status quo. We are at the beginning of an absolute revolution of the American economy that will send manufacturing soaring and pollution plummeting.

Any climate hawk could try to encumber my argument with caveats, unaddressed pet issues and whatabouts, but as far as our shared atmosphere is concerned, there are only three pieces of relevant information: who Joe Biden is, who Donald Trump is, and the urgency of the crisis before us. While it’s true the United States continues to produce record amounts of fossil gas and near-record amounts of oil, these numbers reflect the all-of-the-above energy policies of the past 15 years. The Inflation Reduction Act and several critical regulations from Mr. Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency will drive the decarbonization that should put us within striking distance of our Paris climate agreement target by 2030, something that seemed unfathomable four years ago.

It’s worth dissecting how we achieved such progress. This stunning victory was made possible only by Stacey Abrams’s tenacious work in Georgia to flip two U.S. Senate seats in 2020, giving Mr. Biden a Senate majority on top of a House majority (which he narrowly lost in 2022).

Work is also underway on the state and local levels. In the last four years, Democrats have led efforts in Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan and Washington to pass ambitious climate laws when voters demanded it. In major cities, we see aggressive action like Minneapolis’s Climate Equity Plan and Chicago’s push to end natural gas hookups for new construction.

From small cities like Athens, Ohio, which has a citywide carbon fee, to high school students campaigning for solar panels and electric buses, citizens can drive the movement to electrify everything and crush demand for fossil fuels. State public utility commissions remain ignored players with their hands on the controls of enormous amounts of carbon, ripe for campaigns to elect or appoint climate-oriented members. Whether we’re voting for president or state legislator or dogcatcher, we should vote for a dogcatcher who recognizes the imperative of the climate crisis.

The lesson being that the only thing that has worked, and must continue to work, is democracy at every level. None of us have the option to be cynical, to disdain electoral politics or to pretend we’re not making a distinct moral choice when voting for a third-party candidate or sitting out an election.

Right now, this means electing Democrats. The expiration of many of the Trump tax cuts in 2025 could create the leverage to push climate efforts even farther. We must look at this election and understand that it’s now or never — that we can create the opportunity for the United States to smash past its emission reduction goals and spur the rest of the world to follow. The climate movement can either fight like hell for Mr. Biden’s re-election or watch as Mr. Trump and his allies set fire to the planet.

Climate is not just another issue. I do not deny that we live in a complex and precarious world or that our consciences are torn by a web of domestic challenges and geopolitical upheavals. But we are in denial if we do not recognize that this is the crisis that will define this century, and if we fail, the entire human future. Our fossil fuel system is driving the planet to a set of conditions that humanity has never experienced, where even the imagination of novelists will fail us.

And yet the climate crisis is also the foundation on which we can build a more just, equitable and prosperous world. Every election is precious, every ballot we cast a moral record of what we did in this crucial historical moment. Do not sit on your hands, do not deny the stakes, do not waste that vote.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Putin is bombing Ukraine into darkness — and leaving Europe short of power

The EU relies on Kyiv for energy. So Russia is attacking the critical storage sites that hold Europe’s gas.

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Notes from the editor:

In recent days, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, has been addressing the potential for increased warfare in Europe. Meanwhile, the United States is engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions in the Middle East. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's influential Prime Minister, plays a pivotal role in these developments, with the U.S. striving to prevent any escalation. Concurrently, Putin's relentless bombing campaign in Ukraine has wrought devastation, impacting not only Ukraine but also the broader European region. The ongoing conflict's severe impacts are resonating beyond the immediate areas, raising concerns and challenges at a continental level.

Here are the key points:

1. Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Under Attack:

   • Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers for the past two years, facilitating power distribution.

   • However, the recent shift involves direct attacks on entire power plants, causing more permanent damage.

   • The Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, once a significant electricity producer for millions and a symbol of Ukraine's energy independence, now lies in ruins near Kyiv.Due to these attacks, DTEK, Ukraine’s most prominent private energy firm and a major contributor to the country's economy, has lost nearly 80% of its generating capacity.Repairing the damage will take years, leaving Ukraine in a precarious and desperate situation, struggling to keep the lights and heating on during the upcoming winter. The vulnerability of the nation is stark and deeply concerning.Ukraine’s air defences are depleted, making it challenging to fend off the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure.

2. Spillover to Europe:

   • Last winter, Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders to build up reserves in case of Russian supply disruptions.

   • Now, Russia is targeting that very network, raising concerns about Europe’s preparedness for alternative energy sources.

   • Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist, emphasizes that Russia is using energy as a weapon not only against Ukraine but against the entire world.

3. A Dispiriting Development:

   • Until recently, Ukraine was optimistic about becoming an energy powerhouse for Europe and exporting electricity to its Western neighbours.

   • Now, the destruction of power plants and infrastructure threatens stability and security.

The situation is critical, and the impact extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. Europe must grapple with the consequences of this energy crisis caused by conflict and aggression. It is crucial for us, as global citizens, to stay informed and advocate for peaceful resolutions to such conflicts.

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AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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POLITICO EU BY GABRIEL GAVIN AND VICTOR JACK, APRIL 17, 2024 6:00 AM CET

Just outside Kyiv is a smoking crater where one of Ukraine's largest power plants used to be.

The bombed-out ruin of the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant — the main electricity producer for millions of people — is a symbol of a devastating shift underway in Ukraine. In recent weeks, Russia has started inflicting far more permanent damage on Ukraine’s energy system, not only taking out generating stations but even going after the vast underground gas storage facilities the EU leaned on last winter to avoid its own energy shortages.

It's a change from the past two years, when Moscow and its invading army mostly targeted Ukraine’s energy transformers, the components that move power from one circuit to another. Such attacks were damaging, but the parts could be quickly repaired or substituted.Now that entire power plants are in their crosshairs, the repairs are going to take years. And the storage strikes may deprive Europe of a critical backup plan.

"Our thermal power plants have been attacked 48 times over the past six months, but without a doubt, Russia’s attacks in the past few weeks have been the worst since [the] full-scale invasion in 2022," Maxim Timchenko, CEO of Ukraine's largest private energy firm, DTEK, told POLITICO. 

The company, he said, has now lost close to 80 percent of its generating capacity. 

The results are distressing — and not just for Ukraine. Officials there are worried about how they’ll get through the winter with the lights and heating on. Ukraine’s air defenses are running low, they say, making it increasingly difficult to parry the missiles raining down on energy infrastructure. Nor are there many easy-to-access repair parts for those degraded power plants.

Then there’s the spillover to Europe. Last winter Ukraine offered its gas storage network to European traders as they frantically built up reserves in case Russia axed supplies when the temperature dropped. Now Russia is targeting that network, raising questions about whether the EU is prepared with alternatives.

"The Russians have been trying to use energy as a weapon not just against Ukraine but against the whole world," said Oleg Ustenko, a Ukrainian economist who until recently served as a senior advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “This is a challenge for us, but it's also a challenge for Europe.”

Gridlock

It’s a dispiriting development in an area that, until recently, was a source of optimism for Ukraine. 

Just weeks ago Ukraine was pitching itself as a powerhouse for Europe, boasting of exporting around €1 million in electricity daily to its Western neighbors. Now the financial balance has flipped, with Kyiv draining its precarious budget to import energy as it struggles to avoid blackouts and power a wartime arms industry.

"There's enormous pressure, especially in regions like Kharkiv where all our main assets were attacked by missiles and we are trying to restore as much power as possible while the adversary is undertaking more and more new attacks," said Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, CEO of state power grid operator Ukrenergo, in an interview. 

"I'm sure we will be able to get the grid up and running,” he added, “but the generation of power seems to be the main problem."

According to Timchenko, only support from Ukraine's allies can save the grid from more destruction. 

"Unfortunately, the passive defenses DTEK has been installing — such as concrete blocks and sandbags — have only had a limited effect against these precision attacks,” he said. “We urgently need stronger air defenses to save and protect Ukraine’s energy system."

Kyiv has been calling on its partners to step up and help it defend its infrastructure since the start of the new wave of bombardments in March.

Speaking in the aftermath of the Trypilska power plant bombing, Zelenskyy said: "11 missiles flew towards it. We destroyed the first seven; four others destroyed the plant. Why? Because there were zero [Ukrainian] missiles — we have run out of all the missiles that protected Trypilska." 

For now, though, a critical aid package for Ukraine is tied up within a months-long deadlock in Washington.

On Monday Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galushchenko held emergency talks in Brussels with the EU's energy commissioner, Kadri Simson, as the situation continued to deteriorate. According to a Ukrainian official with knowledge of the talks, the minister focused on "further international steps and assistance needed to support the energy system of Ukraine — with foremost priority to ensure more air defense."

While Germany confirmed over the weekend it would ship one additional Patriot air defense battery to Ukraine, many see that as too little, too late following attacks that have deprived the country of its energy independence. Now, instead of helping the EU break its dependence on Russian fossil fuels by providing cheap electricity, Kyiv is left hoping that its neighbors will help it keep the lights on in the coming months, and maybe years.

"This is having dramatic economic effects," Ustenko said. "It's very unlikely we will be able to continue exports and probably will be needing to import electricity." 

To make matters worse, he added, the mounting attacks risk deterring the private investors that Ukraine needs to modernize its beleaguered grid and roll out smaller renewable energy projects that will be harder for the Russians to target. 

Gas fears

Ukraine’s energy troubles are increasingly becoming Europe’s energy troubles as well. 

Last week Russia signaled a potential new phase in its energy assault, striking two separate sites tied to Ukraine’s underground natural gas storage network. 

The facilities were crucial to Europe’s energy efforts last winter, with traders stashing billions of cubic meters of fuel there in case of acute shortages. The extra storage capacity gave EU countries easy access to the supplies and allowed companies to store excess fuel they would otherwise have had nowhere to put — and which they would have been forced to sell off at a cost of up to €2 billion.

"Ukraine saved Europe's ass," said Aura Sabadus, a gas expert at commodities intelligence firm ICIS. "And the tragedy is that the gas they were storing comes from countries that are opposed to sending aid to Ukraine, most of it comes from Hungary and Slovakia. And ultimately that will backfire.”

There’s more supply uncertainty on the horizon for Europe, too. At the end of the year a transit deal allowing Russia to send pipeline gas to the EU via Ukraine is set to expire, and Kyiv is insisting the pact will not be extended.

"The horror scenario is no Ukrainian storage facilities in December, no transit," Sabadus said. "Then what do we actually do? And even longer term, with another huge glut of liquefied natural gas coming in from the U.S. and Qatar from 2025 onwards, where are we going to put all that as a security of supply measure?"

According to Ustenko, the former Zelenskyy advisor, the longer the West waffles over handing Ukraine more air defense systems, the worse it will be for everyone involved.

"We need to save our country, save our people, and the sooner decisions about anti-air missiles are taken, the better it's going to be for Ukraine and Europe,” he said.

Speaking to POLITICO, the European Commission's energy spokesperson Tim McPhie said that the bloc has and will continue to help Ukraine repair the damage to its energy system. "This is done first and foremost for the benefit of our Ukrainian friends; the gas stored in Ukraine is only a small percentage of our domestic needs in Europe, though of course this extra capacity is welcome and useful.”

"We will continue to provide the necessary support to respond to Ukraine’s energy needs. This includes the repair of the gas storage sites which have recently been attacked, continued electricity exports through our synchronized electricity grids, and material contributions through the Ukraine Energy Support Fund and the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.”

Gabriel Gavin reported from Berlin. Victor Jack reported from Brussels. Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting from Kyiv. 

This article has been updated with a response from the European Commission.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Why This Narrow Strait Next to Iran Is So Critical to the World’s Oil Supply (NYT)

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Other articles in this edition:

New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze

Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed

The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.

The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.

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Friendly Arab nations urge restraint, but will Netanyahu listen?

“The world awaits Israel's response following Iran's assault, and whether "Bibi" will emulate the restraint shown by a legendary predecessor…

https://www.politico.eu/article/friendly-arab-nations-urge-restraint-but-will-netanyahu-listen/

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What is happening in August?  

After reading the amazing article in The New York Times today: “Miscalculation Led to Escalation in Clash Between Israel and Iran”/ Israeli officials say they didn’t see a strike on a high-level Iranian target in Syria as a provocation, and did not give Washington a heads-up about it until right before it happened…

The Israeli official asserted that the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, (blowing up the building and killing some high-ranking officials) was not a deliberate provocation. If we interpret his words correctly, He meant it as merely a "friendly reminder." The pertinent question, then, is whether it is possible to reach August…

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Editorial:

The dangers of deviation in the human brain . . .

Humanity faces a 'cosmic discord' with poverty and inflation shaping an uncertain future.

In this new celestial, mysterious, treacherous and absurd theatre, drones and missiles perform a deadly ballet, with movements cutting across the sky with surgical fluidity. Picture this: a world filled with futuristic technology that surpasses our wildest imaginations. Despite all its wonders, however, a void persists. The rain, that magical elixir of life, is nowhere to be seen. Not even a hint of argent droplets to quench the parched earth. It’s a strange new world indeed.

The brewing chaos began on a fateful day—November 17, 2019—in Wuhan, China. It was then that SARS-CoV-2, a deceptively simple collection of proteins and nucleic acids, was first detected. The virus, which can only reproduce within specific living cells, has since been classified as coronavirus by the Royal Spanish Academy.

What brutality has ensued from this unassuming organism?  How many loved ones are missing from our side today? And all because of a supposed human error in a laboratory.

With the emergence of the virus, genuine expressions of affection, handshakes and hugs—which do so much good for the so-called soul—were replaced by immaterial faces called emojis, which flow at an infinite density (billions per second), devoid of any merciful human contact. This microscopic life form would cause us to die.

Not even the science fiction genius James Graham Ballard (born in Shanghai, 1930 and died in London, 2009) could have envisioned the impact on the future of a community of individuals living on a small, isolated and ailing planet called Earth.

The pandemic is not a mere health crisis; it has engendered extensive human suffering and economic upheaval, leading to unparalleled levels of inflation on a global scale. This eroding onslaught is born of shortages in food, raw materials and almost of kinds of components rather than an overheating economy.

The question is, how can central banks stabilise the process by raising interest rates?

The results defy expectations.

“Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover/Frustrated by higher prices, many Pennsylvanians with fresh pay raises and solid finances report a sense of insecurity lingering from the pandemic…

The New York Times article by Talmon Joseph Smith, dated April 15, 2024.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/world/middleeast/iran-israel-attack.html

Central banks use their tools—interest rates, quantitative easing (a monetary policy tool that can stimulate or restrain the economy) and forward guidance (a communication tool used by central banks to influence market expectations)—to tame the beast. This time, however, the wild beast seems unyielding, and more than these traditional instruments may be needed to address the complex issues confronting us. 

To exacerbate the situation, Russia expanded its incursion into Ukraine in 2023., decreasing the natural gas supply to Europe and causing the price of this fuel to rise. This development has further aggravated the inflationary process, even as it is unrelated to the gas supply issue. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has also opened the door for other governments to deploy military intervention to address historical border problems in all corners of the world.

A case in point is Israel and Iran’s centuries-old rivalry: fuelled by ideology, territorial disputes and historical grievances but extends, as well, beyond a power struggle. Their actions ripple across borders, affecting their citizens and the delicate balance of global stability. The war in which they engage—subtle yet potent—has the potential to reshape alliances, redraw boundaries and alter the course of history, leaving countless lives shattered in its wake.

Conventional equations have been rendered obsolete. The delicate balance between growth and stability is on the verge of collapse. And so, the world spins—a theatre of intrigue, a canvas of uncertainty.

Israel and Iran are locked in a tense standoff, and as inflation follows an intractable trajectory, humanity wrestles with questions that have no simple answers.

Will diplomacy prevail? Can economies find equilibrium? Or are we witnessing a grand unravelling—a symphony of chaos and consequence?

Why is this phenomenon occurring? The answer lies in deviations in the human mind: addiction to power, the exploitation of political authority for one’s benefit, which leads to the petty accumulation of wealth, with people completely forgetting that what is sufficient and necessary must be an imperative for all members of the human family. The pandemic, the war, inflation—all spawns of these deviations. This is not simply a theoretical concept but a stark reality that we must confront.

While many of us contemplate drones, cruise missiles and whatever else is up whoever’s sleeves, these technologies cast a shadow over the skies of the Middle East, complicating the survival of billions who inhabit this sick planet instead of contributing to a better world.

Only time will tell—the ultimate arbiter, the silent witness to our collective drama.

Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

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Thank you, Manuel…

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AES Dominicana has significantly enhanced the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system through the utilization of diverse fuels and renewable energy sources.

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The withdrawal of Iraqi forces during Operation Desert Storm led to the burning of Kuwaiti oil wells, which darkened the skies with smoke on March 25, 1991.. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.

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“Global financial markets have been affected by geopolitical tensions for many years. For example, in the 1970s, conflicts in the Middle East resulted in significant disruptions to oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices and subsequent economic repercussions on a global scale. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of the Cold War. This ushered in a new era in international relations, causing volatility and uncertainty in global markets as investors adapted to the changing geopolitical landscape. The United Kingdom's 2016 referendum on EU membership also had a notable effect on financial markets, with stock market fluctuations, currency depreciation, and heightened investor anxiety stemming from uncertainties surrounding the UK's future relationship with the European Union. The ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have further contributed to market volatility, impacting global supply chains, corporate profits, and investor sentiment. Geopolitical events can disrupt financial markets, influencing asset prices, investor confidence, and economic stability.,,

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The New York Times article by Karl Russell, Denise Lu, and Anjali Singhvi was updated on July 11, 2019.

Twenty percent of the global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water that separates Persian Gulf countries from the rest of the world.

From May 15 to June 15, more than 1,000 tanker ships traveled the strait, according to MarineTraffic, an industry analytics firm. Many were destined for places as far away as China and South Korea.

But the gulf region has been recently rocked by instability, threatening the flow of oil through the strait. Since May, six tankers have been attacked along the strait. On Thursday, British officials said Iranian boats threatened to block one of its vessels from passing through the waterway.

The instability comes amid rising tensions between Iran and the United States and some of its allies. Last year, President Trump abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and has since imposed crippling sanctions on the country. Iran, in defiance, has begun stockpiling and enriching uranium at higher levels.

If tensions persist, disruptions along the strait, where the shipping channel is barely two miles wide, could be felt by dozens of countries that buy Middle Eastern oil in large quantities.

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Oil consumption by Asian countries has surged

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In the past two decades, oil consumption has exploded in countries like China and India, where expanding middle classes have driven large-scale economic growth. China’s demand for oil has nearly tripled over that period. During that time, the United States remained the world’s biggest consumer of oil, going through tens of millions of barrels a day.

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The U.S. has come back as a global oil
player, reducing its reliance on foreign oil

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A recent shale-drilling boom in the United States has caused the production of oil and gas in the country to skyrocket, making America less dependent on imports and allowing it to reclaim its role as a leader in the global energy industry. Oil production in the United States grew an extraordinary 17 percent last year.

The surge has changed the dynamics of the world’s oil market, which has long taken its cues from OPEC, the cartel of oil producers that includes Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.

In previous eras, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz might have spooked the oil market; the market’s response to the recent instability has been relatively muted, in part because of how much oil now comes from the United States.

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The American sanctions have
decimated Iran’s oil exports

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As its reliance on Middle Eastern oil has decreased, the United States has found itself in a stronger position when dealing with countries like Iran.

The American sanctions, although not adopted by all nations, allow the United States to punish companies and countries that engage in trade with Iran. Oil exports have long been the lifeblood of the Iranian economy.

Some countries were initially granted waivers under the sanctions, but many have stopped buying oil from Iran to avoid the risk of being punished by the United States. Iran’s exports have since plummeted.

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Note: Map shows estimated position of all tankers leaving or entering the Persian Gulf from May 15 to June 15. Tankers include all vessels in the general ‘Tanker’ category of Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitted ship type data, such as crude oil or chemical tankers. Countries visited are based on where port calls were made.

Stanley Reed contributed reporting.

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Image by Germán & Co

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New Maui Fire Report Shows the Role Hawaiian Electric Power Line Played in Deadly Blaze

Hawaii attorney general report includes transcripts of communications on the day Lahaina was destroyed

The report provides details about high winds and a downed power line on the day catastrophic flames engulfed the historic town last summer.

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The Wall Street Journal article by Dan Frosch and Christine Mai-Duc dated April 17, 2024.

A Maui County emergency dispatcher called Hawaiian Electric early on Aug. 8 last year and said one of the utility’s power lines had broken and started a fire near Lahaina, according to a new report issued by the Hawaii attorney general’s office. 

The blaze, which ultimately destroyed the historic Maui town later that day and killed at least 101 people, can be traced back to that morning incident, the report said.

The 376-page report, released by Hawaii Attorney General Anne Lopez on Wednesday, includes transcripts of communication from Hawaiian Electric and emergency responders about where the fire ignited and whether the utility’s power lines had been de-energized in high winds.

While the report doesn’t assign blame for the disaster, it provides the most comprehensive account thus far of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in a century, including the roles that downed power lines and wind played. 

Origins of the Lahaina Wildfire

“The origin of the Lahaina Fire can be traced back to 6:35 a.m., when a fast-moving brush fire, later dubbed the ‘Lahaina AM Fire’ ignited,” said the report, which was produced by the Fire Safety Research Institute in Columbia, Md., at the request of Lopez. 

Maui firefighters reported that blaze was extinguished and returned to their quarters at around 2 p.m. A second fire was reported at around 2:55 p.m., at the same location as the earlier incident, according to the report.

A representative for Hawaiian Electric said the report’s description of the early-morning fire aligns with what it has said publicly. The company has previously said that its power lines likely caused that fire, but that its lines had been shut off for more than six hours by the time the afternoon blaze erupted. That second blaze, the company stated in response to a lawsuit filed by Maui County, was the one that destroyed Lahaina. 

Wednesday’s report doesn’t address the utility’s claims about when its power lines were de-energized. 

Even before the Lahaina fire sparked that day, Hawaiian Electric was dealing with damaged poles from high winds and another blaze that had sparked near downed lines on the other side of the island. 

“The rate of the fire’s growth would ultimately impede the crew’s work in many areas of Lahaina,” the report said. 

Firefighters in deadly danger

Conditions deteriorated so dramatically that water pipes failed, and in some parts of Lahaina, there was no water coming from fire hydrants. Fire crews had to rely on scarce private water tankers instead, the report said.

Some fire crews became trapped. Heat from the fire melted their boots and sealed shut the compartment doors on one engine.

One firefighter used a police SUV to rescue seven colleagues, including an unconscious officer who received CPR, according to the report.ments, saying local officials’ lack of response had slowed the investigation. The county has said it is fully cooperating with the attorney general’s probe.

Shares in Hawaiian Electric Industries have fallen 10.1% over the past five days, amid investor anticipation of the report. They rose 2.63% Wednesday, closing at $9.77.

The Lahaina blaze destroyed more than 2,200 structures and caused an estimated $5.5 billion in damages, displacing more than 6,000 of the town’s 13,000 residents. 

As of February, Hawaiian Electric had been named in at least 101 lawsuits by plaintiffs claiming losses related to the fire. Maui County has also been sued by people seeking damages resulting from the fire.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Hawaiian Electric and Maui County knew about the increasing threat of wildfires on the island but took little action. The Journal also reported that large landowners, including the state and Kamehameha Schools, allowed invasive grasses to grow in the hills above Lahaina, which led to the fire’s spread. The state said it has tried to mitigate vegetation with limited funds. Kamehameha Schools said it was committed to being safe stewards of its land.

Hawaiian Electric, the county, the state and Kamehameha Schools all put more than $150 million into a victims’ compensation fund for families of the deceased who agree not to bring wrongful death suits. 

Maui’s fire department issued its own report a day earlier

In its own report released Tuesday, the Maui fire department said it lacked sufficient water tankers and fire engines to combat the Lahaina blaze. That report, produced by the Western Fire Chiefs Association, also said the department did minimal work to staff up and preposition resources amid warnings of strong winds that posed a high wildfire risk. 

It said firefighters remained on scene for more than five hours after containing the earlier Lahaina brush fire, “using copious amounts of water” and firefighting foam to make sure it wouldn’t reignite.

At a press conference Tuesday, Maui County Fire Chief Brad Ventura painted a picture of a fully staffed fire department facing impossible odds against a fierce wind-swept disaster.

“No training is going to overcome what they faced that day,” Ventura told reporters.

What other reports about the Lahaina fire are still in the works?

Two additional reports by the Fire Safety Research Institute—one on how Maui’s fire protection systems functioned during the Lahaina blaze and one on recommendations for the future—are expected to be released later this year by the Hawaii attorney general’s office.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is conducting a separate investigation into how the fire began at the request of Maui County fire officials and is expected to release its findings soon

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Pompous or nefarious? Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets? Iraq-Iran war parallels Israeli-Iran conflict?

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Introduction of the Middle East Conflict on Oil Markets:

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If Shakespeare were to momentarily shift his focus from contemplating profound existential dilemmas, such as the timeless "To be or not to be" or the more contemporary quandary of "Married or unmarried," he might discover that the intricate complexities of the enduring Middle East conflict appear surprisingly less daunting than the decision to say "I do" or not.

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The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, such as Iran's drone and missile strikes on Israel, has raised concerns about possible disruptions in oil supply and resulting market volatility.  Despite tensions, the oil market has seen a slight price decrease, with Light Crude Oil Futures showing a marginal decline.  Traders need to monitor further dynamic developments closely.

“The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook, released on October 30, 2023, states that the current global economy is more resilient to oil price shocks compared to the 1970s. The ongoing Middle East conflict and the Russian invasion of Ukraine could lead global commodity markets into uncharted territory. The report advises mitigating impacts if the conflict does not intensify. The baseline forecast anticipates oil prices to average $90 per barrel this quarter, with a projected fall to $81 per barrel next year as global economic growth decelerates. Commodity prices are expected to fall by 4.1% next year, with agricultural commodity prices likely to decrease due to higher supplies. Base metal prices are projected to drop by 5% in 2024…

The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical events since the 1970s, depending on the disruption to oil supplies. 

1. In a minor disruption scenario, global oil supply could decrease by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day, similar to the Libyan civil war in 2011.  Oil prices are projected to increase by 3% to 13% compared to the current quarter, reaching $93 to $102 per barrel.

2.  If a medium disruption happens, the global oil supply could decrease by 3 to 5 million barrels per day, similar to the Iraq war's impact in 2003.  Oil prices could increase by 21% to 35%, reaching $109 to $121 per barrel.

 3. A significant disruption, similar to the Arab oil embargo in 1973, would reduce the global oil supply by 6 to 8 million barrels per day.  Consequently, prices are expected to increase by 56% to 75%, reaching $140 to $157 per barrel.

In conclusion, although the conflict's impact on global commodity markets has been limited, policymakers must remain vigilant.  Any further escalation could significantly impact increased oil prices and worsen food insecurity.

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*WB Press Release on October 30, 2023. “Conflict in Middle East Could Bring ‘Dual Shock’ to Global Commodity Markets

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/10/26/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2023-press-release

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

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A vital snapshot of today's global landscape...

In July 2000, U.S. President Bill Clinton, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, and Chairman of the Palestinian Authority Yasser Arafat convened at Camp David for a summit aimed at addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The summit, held from July 11 to July 25, focused on fostering mutual understanding and devising a framework for peace negotiations.

Deepened lost in diplomacy...

https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24

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By Germán & Co in Karlstad, Sweden on April 15, 2024

In the vast theatre of life, political leaders of yesterday and today – as actors in an eternal drama – face a momentous decision: pomposity or perfidy?

…Two masks, two roles, two destinations.

Pomposity, like a marble throne in the Roman Forum, rises majestically.  He wears the cloak of self-importance, his bearing solemn.  The pompous orator declaims his words in marble halls but is often substanceless.  He is the leader who confuses grandiosity with gravity and rejoices in ceremony. But beware, because underneath the façade lies emptiness, a hollow vanity that mocks even the gods.  And then there's betrayal, that shadowy figure that lurks in the corridors of power.  He wears a mask of intrigue, his actions whispered in dark chambers.  Disappointedly, he dances; his footsteps leave no trace on the marble floors.  It's the puppeteer, pulling invisible strings, orchestrating chaos with an evil grin.  Perfidy thrives on secrecy, its motives veiled, and its actions calculated.  It's the dagger hidden in the folds of a senator's robe, ready to strike when you least expect it.  But beware, its darkness consumes everything: morality, honour, and the very fabric of society.

It is widely recognized that leaders may deliberately provoke conflict as a strategic approach to maintain control when they risk losing power.  "This phenomenon is complex and fascinating, deserving further comprehensive investigation."

The combination of Saddam Hussein (Ṣaddām Ḥusayn al-Tikrītī, was born on April 28, 1937, in the village of Al-ʿAwjah, Iraq) and Benjamin Netanyahu's (“Bibi”, born on October 21, 1949, in Tel Aviv, Israel), (The Israeli Prime Minister's nickname 'Bibi' has an ironic issue as it can be easily confused with the Arabic term 'Habibi', which means 'my beloved' or 'my dear one'.), unique attributes and behaviours and ISIS's impact on regional dynamics makes for an intriguing phenomenon that deserves further analysis.

Saddam Hussein, the former president of Iraq, made dangerous decisions based on his skewed perception of reality. He was known for his erratic behavior, which was further exacerbated by the fall of the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (The Shah, was born on October 26, 1919, in Tehran, Sublime State of Persia), in January 1979 and the emergence of Imam Ruhollah Khomeini (born in Khomeyn, in what is now Iran’s Markazi province). These events were perceived by Hussein as a significant threat to the Arab world, worsening his already distorted mindset.

Under authoritarian governance, Saddam Hussein exercised substantial control over Iraq, suppressing dissent and centralizing power through tactics of intimidation and coercion.  His administration was marked by violations of human rights, particularly the notorious Anfal campaign that specifically targeted the Kurdish community.

Additionally, Sheikh Fahad of Kuwait (Sheikh Fahad Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, born on August 10, 1945 in Kuwait), engaged in oil price manipulation (dumping), which exacerbated Hussein's erratic behavior.   Hussein perceived this as a direct threat to Iraq's struggling economy and regional stability. Consequently, his sense of instability was amplified, resulting in increasingly unpredictable decision-making.

Saddam Hussein's interactions with the United States were complex and evolved significantly over time.  In the 1980s, the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein's government in Iraq as allies during the Iran–Iraq War.  This support was primarily driven by geopolitical motives and the goal of countering Iran's influence.

During this time, the U.S. offered Iraqi military aid, intelligence, and diplomatic backing.  In the 1990s, the United States changed its approach towards Saddam Hussein.

After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the U.S. led a coalition to liberate Kuwait and imposed economic sanctions on Iraq.  The U.S. aimed to contain Saddam's regime to reduce its regional impact, resulting in escalating tensions and a strained relationship.   

In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq, alleging that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).  The invasion led to the downfall of Saddam's regime.  Diplomatic relations were restored only after Saddam's removal, leading to the establishment of a pro-American government in Iraq.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, is recognized as an astute politician renowned for his strategic political manoeuvres.  He skillfully navigated the complexities of Israeli political dynamics by establishing coalitions and forming strategic alliances to uphold his authority.  Netanyahu's incoming hard-line government has prioritized the expansion of the West Bank settlement.  The coalition agreement includes plans to legalize dozens of illegally built outposts and even annex the occupied territory.  This controversial move is part of a coalition deal with ultranationalist allies.  However, most of the international community considers these settlements illegal and an obstacle to peace with the Palestinians.

The United States has already cautioned against actions that could undermine hopes for an independent Palestinian state.  The situation remains highly charged and could strain relations with Israel's closest allies abroad.

The Prime Minister of Israel's close connection to the former Trump administration (and his exaltation to the Gods, hoping that the former president Donald Trump (Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, at Jamaica Hospital in Queens, New York City) would be re-elected in November's elections is also disputed.  Netanyahu has employed survival strategies like those used by Hussein.  He has effectively managed allegations of corruption, maintained a strong support network, and skilfully tackled security issues while facing a degree of divisiveness and polarization.  Specific individuals view him as a strong leader who prioritizes Israel's security, while others critique his policies and handling of domestic matters. Amid all the chaos, Europe is not taking any chances and is swiftly constructing an anti-aircraft shield for diplomatic security. Why, you ask? Well, it's all in preparation for the potential comeback of the one and only former President Donald Trump this coming November. Europe is not about to let any surprises catch them off guard!

The resurgence of ISIS has significantly influenced the dynamics in the Middle East.  The group's brutal tactics, territorial acquisitions, and recruitment efforts attracted international attention.  ISIS exploited preexisting conflicts, such as the Syrian civil war and sectarian tensions, to incite disorder and violence.  ISIS presented a significant challenge to the established state boundaries, resulting in destabilization within Iraq, Syria, and adjacent nations.  The ideology transcended national borders, attracting foreign combatants, and posing a threat to global security.

Finally, the potential risk of a global oil market disruption, such as the recent war in Ukraine, has not yet materialized. However, on February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine, which caused oil prices to skyrocket to over $110 per barrel.

The analysis concludes that the wanderer, who was suffering from cancer and had no place to stay, responded ambiguously to the question posed to the Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.  This was during an interview with journalist David Frost (David Paradine Frost, born on April 7, 1939, in Tenterden, Kent, England) in 1979 for BBC (this interview is considered one of the most important in journalism history) on Contadora Island in Panama.  Frost asked the Shah how many people disappeared during his reign, but the answer remains to be discovered.  This situation is a clear reminder that one should not take unnecessary risks, which can lead to undesirable consequences.  Playing with fire always leaves one burned. 

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Bibliography:

1. The Camp David Summit in the USA, which took place from July 11 to 25, 2000.

2. David Frost's face-to-face interview with the Shah of Iran on Contadora Island, Panama, in 1979.

3. World Bank Press Release, October 30, 2023: "Conflict in Middle East May Trigger 'Dual Shock' in Global Commodity Markets"

4. Deepened lost in diplomacy... germantoroghio.com, august, 2023.

5. "The Achilles Trap" by Steve Coll, Pulitzer Prize winner, explores events leading to the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Published 02/27/2024, the book offers a detailed analysis.

6. The intention to incite a global conflict should be clearly evident... Germantoroghio.com, March 2024.

7. Europe faces a tough test: Can it confront Vladimir Putin without help from the US? POLITICO European Union article from January 2024.

8. Isis Returns, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique in March 2024.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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"Natural Gas and Renewable Energy: Europe's Balancing Act"

Historically, relying on a single strategic fuel supplier has been a double-edged sword.

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Europe’s new energy risk: Trading Russia for America

The EU replaced Russian energy with U.S. supplies after Moscow launched a war. Now people are wondering: Is Europe too dependent on America?

POLITICO by Gabriel Gavin, published on March 3, 2024.

“As for all hypothetical scenarios, we will not be speculating on U.S. potential cuts in production or supply to the EU,” a senior EU official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

“EU and U.S. officials met in Washington last month for talks as part of the EU-US Energy Council, but the issue of LNG permits wasn’t on the official agenda or a broader list of topics shared with POLITICO ahead of the tête-à-tête.

“Then there’s the Donald Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House he is almost certain to push for a massive fossil fuel expansion while riding roughshod over conventional climate science.

“While an American LNG production boom would likely drive down prices, particularly for the short-term contracts the EU favors, it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether European nations are enabling an anti-environmental crusade. It would also raise the specter that the continent had taken control of its energy markets away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and given it to President Trump.

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Dear friends:

Happy Sabbat! As we part ways with a pledge to reunite in August, echoing Gabriel García Márquez's enigmatic posthumous literature, let us welcome the ambiguity of our conflict-ridden world. Today, the British newspaper "Daily Express" discusses how authorities are adopting Scandinavia's measures in preparation for a potential global conflict. On this special day, may it bring you joy, opportunities for self-reflection, and a sense of positive energy. Whether spent in tranquil solitude or in the company of loved ones, may the time be abundant with love and blessings.

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For the esteemed "Le Monde Diplomatique," the world of the month of April is viewed in this manner:

“…conflicts through the lens of history: India election special, New Delhi is not Beijing; has India become the world’s factory? Narendra Modi’s India oiled by crony capitalism; is India now a democracy in name only? agriculture once more in crisis; Ukraine, Macron’s poodles the new dogs of war; Moscow wants no less than surrender; Israeli far right’s Biblical pretexts for mass expulsion; Zionist movement’s cooption of Judaism; US, guns still a way of life across political divide; northern Mali, Tuaregs are fighting an existential war; the fat profits in international arbitration; empathy, our new panacea…

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Notes from the editor: 

Europe is confronted with a complex energy management dilemma as it depends on a single fuel supply, particularly in the case of natural gas, which has been used as a geopolitical tool by some countries. This situation is exemplified by historical conflicts such as the Suez Canal Crisis, the oil crisis of the 1970s, and the oil embargo enforced by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC), which led to a increase in global oil prices. Russia's military intervention in Ukraine has been a contributing factor to the decrease in natural gas imports to Europe. Furthermore, the resurgence of ISIS, backed by a significant nation, has negatively impacted other economies. As a result, many nations are seeking to balance their energy requirements without becoming overly reliant on a single fuel source. In the case of Europe in the recent past, there was an excessive dependence on Russia for natural gas supply(1); now, this reliance has shifted to the United States. Reliance again on a single fuel supplier could make countries vulnerable to price fluctuations and source chain disruptions (Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds (2)). Therefore, it is important to avoid such dangerous dilemmas. Finally, the international community recognises the importance of technology in addressing energy security, environmental protection, economic growth, and clean energy needs, but the integration of cutting-edge renewable energy technologies has been a challenging and slow bureaucratic process, which doesn’t help in diversifying the energy matrix.

(1) The Riddle Of Non-Nord Stream Return… https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/blog-post-title-four-9r7yf-et66s-bcdgl-y5yy5-hlk5r-zxrcm-ac5jt-9mpkh

(2) Che cosa ! Nord Stream, 7.5 billion euros, blast in seconds… https://www.germantoroghio.com/blog-1-2/wltpflwya644ltd-9xgre-f9l3k-74tkd-tn6zx-w7shk-fbxaj-6sytt-9lekr-dk72t-krxf3-tm445-b7hj8-p962c-5z4l3-nntza-dywdz-xhf24-dxjl5-h6lly-jx95h-dalp4-6zlrk-fmre6-7zbng-c3ges-k94st

Following the insightful post from POLITICO EU regarding these matters...

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

---

President Joe Biden has instituted a temporary halt on the approval of new LNG projects. All artwork rights are held by Germán & Co.

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Europe’s new energy risk: Trading Russia for America

The EU replaced Russian energy with U.S. supplies after Moscow launched a war. Now people are wondering: Is Europe too dependent on America?

POLITICO by Gabriel Gavin, published on March 3, 2024.

On cloudy days, from his house John Beard can see the fireballs lighting up the dark sky, flares from the distant fossil fuel plants where he once made his living as a technician.

The fiery discharge of excess gas is a constant reminder of the industry that dominates life for Beard and his neighbors in Port Arthur, Texas, where one in four people live in poverty and the rate of cancer, heart and lung disease is well above the state average. Many locals blame the situation on the dark chimneys dotting the horizon. 

"Texas is known for two things: barbecue and gas," Beard said. "There's money being made and the people making the money don't look like me and they don't live in Port Arthur." 

The Lone Star State is America's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which gets shipped to Europe. Worryingly for the EU, it's also ground zero for a growing protest movement pressuring Washington to wind down those exports to save the climate.

Ahead of a tight election in November, U.S. President Joe Biden has ordered a temporary pause on approving new LNG projects, effectively freezing the country's expansion of export infrastructure in a nod to climate-conscious voters. 

While green groups have praised the decision, Europeans are growing anxious about supply squeezes and price hikes. The EU bet big on U.S. LNG in 2022 after shunning the cheap Russian energy it had relied on for years. It spent billions on LNG infrastructure, and signed scores of new contracts. 

Those decisions are now being called into question: Did Europe trade its misbegotten reliance on Russia for a short-sighted reliance on America? The U.S. currently provides Europe with nearly 50 percent of its LNG — up from roughly a quarter before the war — and LNG has overtaken pipeline gas as the most important source of supplies.

The Lone Star State is America's largest producer of liquefied natural gas. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

“Having experienced the dangers of risking security of energy supply by depending too much on one source, Europe must learn from its past mistakes and avoid becoming over-reliant on the U.S.,” warned Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, in a recent report that found Europe's LNG demand is still growing.

Across the pond…

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, the EU and the U.K. have raced to replace Moscow's gas — largely delivered via pipelines across the continent — with seaborne shipments of American LNG. 

Today it's places like Port Arthur rather than Siberia that heat Europe's homes and power-heavy industries, a switch that prevented catastrophe as Russia turned off the taps.

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THE EU'S NEW LNG DEPENDENCE…

U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to EU countries*, in cubic feet per month.

*Belgium, Croatia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain.

SOURCE: U.S. Energy Information Administration  By Giovanna Coi

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That's why Biden's decision to potentially decrease LNG output has rattled European industry, even if the pause — if prolonged after the election — would only be felt in 10 to 15 years. The EuroGas trade association wrote the White House urging a reversal, warning of a return to "record high prices caused by the Russian supply drop.”

After the war began, European firms rapidly expanded their port infrastructure and built regasification plants — which turn liquid gas back into a usable form — planning for long-term imports from the U.S. 

Companies also signed a glut of short-term LNG contracts with U.S. firms — providing flexibility as renewable energy sources proliferate but making it harder to ensure low prices and know where your energy will come from in five or 10 years.

"We are not optimistic, but I would say compared to where we were two years ago we are at least in a neutral state," said Torben Brabo, president of Gas Infrastructure Europe, which represents operators and industry across the continent. "If we want to have reliable supplies from the U.S., we need to accept some mid-term contracts."

At a major oil and gas conference in Houston last month, energy company bosses including ExxonMobil Vice President John Ardill, whose firm wants to begin drilling for gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, warned Europe that it must become more self-sufficient. 

"Redirecting liquefied natural gas and building [regasification] terminals are not long-term solutions," he said. 

Getting rid of gas?

Faced with calls for the energy sector to secure more U.S. LNG and step up local natural gas production, European climate campaigners say they are skeptical of whether either option is really needed.

"We see the industry outcry but we think it's much overdone," said Esther Bollendorff, a gas policy expert at Climate Action Network Europe. 

Bollendorff said Europe had undergone a “tectonic shift” since Russia’s invasion, noting the EU’s average gas consumption has dropped by about a fifth. Meanwhile, she added, the EU is steadily growing its renewable power and aims to cut an additional 30 percent off its gas consumption by 2030.

"But since 2022 we've got eight new or expanded LNG terminals coming online,” she said. “There's an over-capacity and it's likely they will be stranded assets because the utilization rate of existing capacity today is less than 60 percent.”

According to Nicolás González Casares, an MEP from Spain's governing Socialist party — which has overseen the construction of significant new LNG infrastructure — and a member of the European Parliament's energy committee, the expansion was "not a mistake" because "we needed this energy and our dependence on Russia was so strong that we cannot say no to LNG during these two years." 

However, he added, the priority should now be replacing gas with renewables: "We don't want really this business. Our business is to have clean energy here in Spain and also in Europe."

Nicolás González Casares, an MEP from Spain's governing Socialist party says the priority should now be replacing gas with renewables.

Industry representatives caution against leaving fossil fuels behind too quickly. They insist that even under the EU’s gas reduction plans, there is still a need to secure extra LNG supplies, particularly given the pressure to divest from Moscow’s exports. 

Nareg Terzian, a spokesperson for the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers, pointed to a “gap between projected demand” under the EU’s current forecasts “and the actual supply that we know of, if you take out Russia.”

“That’s the supply gap to be bridged,” Terzian argued. “And so it is extremely important that Europe be able to secure the necessary volumes from the U.S.” 

The numbers paint a mixed picture. European gas demand hit a record low for the decade last year, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. But the drop was driven mainly by three countries: Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. Overall, Europe’s LNG demand won’t peak until 2025, the institute concluded.

Meanwhile, the gas industry argues that extra LNG investments don’t limit Europe to U.S. supplies. It could also get LNG from producers like Norway and Qatar, said Brabo, the Gas Infrastructure Europe chief. Down the line, the ports could even be repurposed for less carbon-intensive fuels, he added. 

“It can be used for biomethane and green hydrogen immediately,” Brabo said. 

Change in management..

For now, the EU is staying out of the fray. 

“As for all hypothetical scenarios, we will not be speculating on U.S. potential cuts in production or supply to the EU,” a senior EU official told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss the situation.

EU and U.S. officials met in Washington last month for talks as part of the EU-US Energy Council, but the issue of LNG permits wasn’t on the official agenda or a broader list of topics shared with POLITICO ahead of the tête-à-tête.

Then there’s the Donald Trump factor. If Trump returns to the White House he is almost certain to push for a massive fossil fuel expansion while riding roughshod over conventional climate science.

While an American LNG production boom would likely drive down prices, particularly for the short-term contracts the EU favors, it would raise uncomfortable questions about whether European nations are enabling an anti-environmental crusade. It would also raise the specter that the continent had taken control of its energy markets away from Russian President Vladimir Putin and given it to President Trump.

"I would say to the Europeans, they need to understand that there's a very, very human cost for this gas," said Beard, the Port Arthur resident, who can list off the top of his head the names of neighbors with chronic diseases like cancer and lung conditions.

"Enough is enough. We refuse to be sacrificed any further."

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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AES Dominicana… “Let us hope for abundant electrical rainfall…

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PUERTO PRINCIPE/HAITI - OCTOBER 13, 2010: Singer Juan Luis Guerra speaks with journalists during the ceremony to begin the construction of a hospital for the victims of 2010 Haiti earthquake. All artwork rights are owned by Germán & Co. Any unauthorized publication is strictly prohibited.

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Introduction to the Voyage of Existence for the Better...

Image…

“Imagine a world where the skies gift us with electrical rainfall, a phenomenon where energy cascades from the heavens, promising to power our dreams and innovations. This is not just a flight of fancy, but a vision of a future where renewable energy is as natural and abundant as the rain that nourishes our earth. In this blog entry, we'll explore the exciting possibilities of harnessing the power of electrical storms, turning the might of nature into a sustainable source that could light up our cities and homes, and spark a revolution in how we think about and use energy. Join us on this electrifying journey as we delve into the potential of electrical rainfall and its role in powering a brighter, cleaner future. Imagine if we could store all this wonderful energy...

“Ojalá Que Llueva Café” is a song by Dominican singer-songwriter Juan Luis Guerra about the desire for a better life in the countryside. The song focuses on the metaphor of rain, specifically the rain of coffee, which alleviates the drought and hardships of rural life and provides abundant food and joy. Guerra’s lyrics depict a heavenly landscape of clouds seeding the fields with coffee and other crops such as cassava, tea, white cheese, watercress, honey, wheat, and a variety of trees. It describes people reaping the land’s bounty, celebrating, and singing together. The song is an ode to the impoverished rural areas of the Caribbean, where most of Guerra’s music is rooted, and an anthem of hope for a better life. Besides, access to electricity is vital. Indeed, electricity is no longer a luxury; rather, it’s a fundamental right. It powers our homes, fuels progress, and connects us globally. Just as coffee rain provides sustenance, electricity brings light, warmth, and opportunity. It’s a lifeline for rural communities, bridging gaps and enabling growth.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Image: Dominican Power Partner (DPP) in Los Minas, Santo Domingo, courtesy of AES Dominicana.

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Big shoutout to AES Dominicana for their amazing support and unwavering commitment...

During a rainy season day in 1990, the power of the Caribbean Sea was tangible along the Santo Domingo boardwalk, where it relentlessly battered against George Washington Avenue. The darkness enveloped the city entirely, but amidst it, it was possible to discern the lively chords of merengue resonating from afar. The illumination source emanated from a neighbouring grocery store, which relied on a compact generator to power its lights. The volume of the music was so pronounced that it created the illusion of a live performance, overpowering even the sound of the crashing waves from the sea. As the music persisted, a new song started playing: a renowned bachata by Juan Luis Guerra and his 4.40, featuring the globally recognised lyrics: "I hope it will rain coffee." The noise maintained its previous volume, serving as a welcome diversion from the stifling heat that surrounded the island. No one could resist swaying their hips to the beat of the music, almost as if it were a necessary response to the scorching heat. A scream can be heard in the distance, —coño— Pancho... The light is coming, as if the dear friend were not seeing the miracle that is life… 

Experiencing the phenomenon of —alumbrones— (the light coming), it may be Kafkaesque, but it is not. It is the production of electrical energy in the country. It was critical, if not non-existent, because of its precariousness. It’s because it evoked a profound sense of exhilaration and joy in individuals. When the electric light peeked out miserably. While the light was fleeting, it undoubtedly provided an unforgettable balsam bath. Thus, the scarcity of much-needed electricity in the Dominican Republic was evident.  In other words, that was the dark reality of La Hispaniola. With good intentions and hard work, everything can change.

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"A single image can communicate a multitude of messages. In this specific instance, the narrative resonates with a vast amount of light energy. In 1990, the country had an installed capacity of 1460 MW, which served a population of 7,118,000...

Courtesy of AES Dominicana.

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AES Dominicana has made a significant contribution to improving the efficiency of the Dominican Republic's electricity system by using a variety of fuels and renewable energy sources.

Since its inception in the region, AES has always been committed to making a significant contribution to the energy sector by prioritising the implementation of effective and sustainable changes that benefit all stakeholders.

In 2000, AES demonstrated its commitment to the sustainable growth of the Dominican Republic by establishing AES Andrés. The project included a 319 MW combined-cycle power plant, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and a gas pipeline connecting to the DPP plant.

In the same year, AES also acquired the assets of GENER and a 25% stake in the ITABO S.A. power plant. In the following years, AES maintained its investment in the country by undertaking projects such as the conversion of gas turbines to natural gas and the acquisition of additional shares in ITABO S.A. These initiatives by AES have significantly improved the country's strategic energy position and reduced its dependence on oil derivatives for electricity generation.

In the 2010s, AES initiated the construction of AES Andrés 2000, a combined-cycle power plant that represents a significant advancement in the country's energy infrastructure. The company also launched the innovative Closing the Loop project at DPP. This initiative involved the installation of a steam turbine to improve operational efficiency and support environmental and social progress.

In 2017, AES successfully completed the Closing the Loop initiative at DPP, resulting in a significant increase in capacity and efficiency at the plant. This progress contributed significantly to the country's environmental and social development goals. AES Dominicana is proud of its remarkable journey and looks forward to continuing its efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions for a brighter future.

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The Bayasol project is a 50 MW solar power plant located in Matanzas, Dominican Republic, 12 km west of Bani in the province of Peravia. The project covers an area of 947,172.73 m2 and aims to produce clean electricity from renewable sources. The annual electricity production is 107,948 MWh, which is transmitted through underground medium voltage circuits insulated at 34.5 kV to a 138 kV substation. This substation houses a 60 MVA transformer that supplies energy to the Dominican Republic's National Interconnected Electric System (SENI). By using solar energy to generate electricity, the project reduces dependence on fossil fuel-based energy production. The project includes solar power plants, substations, the national grid and connected power plants.

Further details are subject to revision. The project will use solar energy to generate clean, renewable electricity, replacing electricity from fossil fuel-fired plants connected to the grid. The project will result in an annual greenhouse gas emission reduction of 64,287 tCO2e and 642,866 tCO2e over the ten-year crediting period. Image courtesy of AES Dominicana.

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The 50-MW Agua Clara wind farm developed by Inkia Energy Ltd in the Dominican Republic started operations this Tuesday, the office of the country’s president Danilo Medina announced.

The Agua Clara project, located on a 120-hectare (296.5 acres) site, required an investment of USD 103 million (EUR 91.3m). The farm is equipped with 25 wind turbines of 2 MW each, capable of producing an estimated 170 GWh per year. 

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AES Dominicana Foundation…

AES Dominicana's focus is on the electrical sector, and its goal is to become integrated with the society of the Dominican Republic.

Since 2007, the AES Dominicana Foundation has accompanied the Dominican Republic in its sustainable development goals, addressing environmental, educational, health, entrepreneurial, and cultural needs as part of the orange economy.

In addition, the foundation has responded to national needs in emergencies and natural disasters. Haiti was struck by a catastrophic earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 on the Richter scale in 2010, resulting in the deaths of over 200,000 people and the displacement of more than two million. The Foundation was among the first international organisations to provide humanitarian aid, including medical assistance. Following the initial emergency aid, efforts were focused on restoring the country's fragile electrical system. The Foundation's solidarity led to its nomination as a finalist for the Platts Awards that year.

From the beginning, the Foundation has supported cultural and artistic initiatives within the orange economy, a sector endorsed by the Dominican Republic to cultivate talent. Since its establishment, the Foundation has played a significant role as a primary sponsor of the Trampoline Children's Museum in the Colonial City of Santo Domingo.

To date, the AES Dominicana Foundation, in partnership with Berklee College of Music, Itabo Electricity Generating Company, the Ministry of Culture, and the National Conservatory of Music, has awarded a total of forty scholarships for music studies at the prestigious Berklee College of Music in Boston. This incredible opportunity is key to significant personal growth for recipients.

By promoting art and culture, AES Dominicana is actively fuelling the growth of the creative economy in the Dominican Republic and nurturing the development of gifted individuals.

“Success that is not planned is merely a stroke of luck,” noted Edwin De los Santos. The pairing of AES Dominicana and Berklee creates a harmonious tune for the Dominican Republic. 

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The AES Dominicana family is experiencing growth…

Since 2014, AES has implemented a long-term strategy to incorporate local partners to support the expansion and strengthening of the business and accompany the growth of the energy industry with a sustainability vision, both in the Dominican Republic and Panama.

"We derive immense value from partnering with strong local players who provide valuable support as we transition our businesses in both markets," said Juan Ignacio Rubiolo, executive vice president and president of AES's Energy Infrastructure Strategic Business Unit.

The first step began on September 3, 2014, when AES Dominicana forged a strategic partnership with local entities Estrella and Linda in New York. Estrella and Linda acquired a minority stake in the energy company.

Integrating Estrella and Linda into the AES Dominicana family is a strategic move and a powerful symbol of our shared vision and commitment. This alliance is not just about improving the electricity sector in the Dominican Republic but about ushering in a new era of national development across various productive industries.

The earnest dedication of the signatories to contribute to the resolution offers a promising perspective for the future of the energy sector in the Dominican Republic.

The collaboration between Estrella and Linda is a pivotal element of AES's comprehensive long-term growth strategy in the Dominican Republic. This strategy, presented to the Dominican Republic authorities in December 2012, is a testament to our steadfast commitment to the country's energy sector. It is a commitment to a secure and prosperous future for the Dominican Republic, underscoring our unwavering presence.

The signing ceremony was graced by key figures in the energy sector, including Andrés Gluski, the Global President and CEO of AES Corporation; Edwin De Los Santos, the President of AES Dominicana; Manuel Estrella, the President of Estrella; and Felix García, the President of Grupo Linda, who served as delegates for the new collaborators, symbolizing the unity and shared vision of all parties involved.

The AES Dominicana group's integration of ENANDON and API Popular marks not an end, but the commencement of a new and promising chapter in its continuing saga of success.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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The Coming Electricity Crisis…

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Notes from the editor: 

On this Good Friday, amidst the ongoing discussions among politicians regarding a possible conflict in developing nations, it is profoundly disheartening to observe how our avarice and inflexibility have obscured our discernment and diminished our empathy towards each other. 

On the 13th of this month, a popular blog published a thought-provoking article titled "How imminent is a worldwide electrical outage?"  The article highlighted the growing demand for power and the concerning deficit in energy supply faced by the United States.  In just a short time, the post has been read over 120,000 times and has sparked an enormous debate on Energy Central, with many experts weighing in with their opinions and sharing interesting facts on the topic.  

This article has also led to other debates and discussions on the issue, further highlighting the importance of the subject.  Today, the editorial board of WSJ published an article discussing the crisis in the electrical sector, adding to the ongoing conversation and bringing more attention to the matter. 

The growing potential for a widespread blackout is becoming more alarming as the pressure on the power grid intensifies. 

Many will claim this is madness; however, reality begs to differ. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning in their 2021 Electricity Market Report about a significant increase in global electricity consumption.  This warning came eight months before the Soviet gas squeeze left Europe in a serious supply restriction crisis and caused severe damage to the economy.  Last week, the Washington Post also issued a similar warning. 

It is imperative that the market notice this warning and examine its requirements to provide the necessary adaptations to accommodate the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources.  Regulatory frameworks must be updated and adjusted to the current surge in energy demand to facilitate a seamless transition to emerging technologies.  Achieving a successful market transition requires a delicate balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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Picture from an outside origin...

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“CERAWeek 2024 was a whirlwind of innovation, collaboration, and a renewed sense of urgency around the energy transition. I am excited to see the vision of the AES Corporation on the importance of Artificial Intelligence for the energy transition.  

From AI-powered grids seamlessly integrating renewables to AI applications to optimizing energy storage and distribution, the innovation in how we work using AI will revolutionize the energy landscape.

Renewables' exponential growth will be the fuel of the future. Scaling green solutions to meet global energy demands will be pivotal, and I am extremely proud that in 2023, The AES Corporation doubled the green capacity constructed compared to 2022, completing 3.5 GW of renewable projects. 

Artificial intelligence will enable us to accelerate the future and unlock the full potential of clean energy.

CERAWeek highlighted the importance of collaboration between governments, businesses, and innovators to accelerate progress; it was fabulous to meet with so many colleagues working to accelerate an energy transition, which encourages me that we are ready for a global response to the change of climate change. 

Together, we will accelerate the energy future by harnessing the power of renewables and AI and leveraging the talent and dedication of the AES Corporation people, said Bernerd Da Santos, AES Executive Vice President—President of Global Renewables / Green Hydrogen and CEO of AES Clean Energy.

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The looming threat of The Coming Electricity Crisis….

Artificial-intelligence data centers and climate rules are pushing the power grid to what could become a breaking point…

The Wall Street Journal's editorial team on March 28, 2024, adjusted by Germán & Co.

President Biden and the press keep raising alarms about a climate crisis that his policies can’t do much about. Yet in the meantime they’re ignoring how government climate policies are contributing to a looming electric-grid crisis that is more urgent and could be avoided.

For years about an electric-power shortage. And now grid regulators and utilities are ramping up warnings. Projections for U.S. electricity demand growth over the next five years have doubled from a year ago. The major culprits: New artificial-intelligence data centers, federally subsidized manufacturing plants, and the government-driven electric-vehicle transition.

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Georgia Power recently increased 17-fold its winter power demand forecast by 2031, citing growth in new industries such as EV and battery factories. AEP Ohio says new data centers and Intel’s $20 billion planned chip plant will increase strain on the grid. Chip factories and data centers can consume 100 times more power than a typical industrial business.

PJM Interconnection, which operates the wholesale power market across 13 Midwest and Northeast states, this year doubled its 15-year annual forecast for demand growth. Its projected power demand in the region for 2029 has increased by about 10 gigawatts—about twice as much as New York City uses on a typical day.

Don’t expect the power to come from New York, which is marching toward a power shortage as it shuts down nuclear and fossil-fuel power in favor of wind and solar. A new Micron chip factory in upstate New York is expected to require as much power by the 2040s as the states of New Hampshire and Vermont combined.

Electricity demand to power data centers is projected to increase by 13% to 15% compounded annually through 2030. Yet a shortage of power is already delaying new data centers by two to six years, according to commercial-real estate firm CBRE Group. It is also driving Big Tech companies into the energy business.

Amazon this month struck a $650 million deal to buy a data center in Pennsylvania powered by an on-site 2.5 gigawatt nuclear plant.

Data centers—like manufacturing plants—require reliable power around the clock year-round, which wind and solar don’t provide. Businesses can’t afford to wait for batteries to become cost-effective. Building transmission lines to connect distant renewables to the grid typically takes 10 to 12 years.

Because of these challenges, Obama Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz last week predicted that utilities will ultimately have to rely more on gas, coal and nuclear plants to support surging demand. “We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years,” he said. No kidding.

The problem is that utilities are rapidly retiring fossil-fuel and nuclear plants. “We are subtracting dispatchable [fossil fuel] resources at a pace that’s not sustainable, and we can’t build dispatchable resources to replace the dispatchable resources we’re shutting down,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commissioner Mark Christie warned this month.

About 20 gigawatts of fossil-fuel power are scheduled to retire over the next two years—enough to power 15 million homes—including a large natural-gas plant in Massachusetts that serves as a crucial source of electricity in cold snaps. PJM’s external market monitor last week warned that up to 30% of the region’s installed capacity is at risk of retiring by 2030.

Some plants are nearing the end of their useful life-spans, but an onslaught of costly regulation is the bigger cause. A soon-to-be-finalized Environmental Protection Agency rule would require natural-gas plants to install expensive and unproven carbon capture technology.

The PJM report cites “the role of states and the federal government in subsidizing resources and in environmental regulation.” It added: “The simple fact is that the sources of new capacity that could fully replace the retiring capacity have not been clearly identified.”

Meantime, the Inflation Reduction Act’s huge renewable subsidies make it harder for fossil-fuel and nuclear plants to compete in wholesale power markets. The cost of producing power from solar and wind is roughly the same as from natural gas. But IRA tax credits can offset up to 50% of the cost of renewable operators.

Baseload plants can’t turn a profit operating only when needed to back up renewables, so they are closing. This was the main culprit for Texas’s week-long power outage in February 2021 and the eastern U.S.’s rolling blackouts during Christmas 2022.

The media will discover this problem eventually, though not this year if it might call into question Mr. Biden’s climate agenda. Perhaps they’ll notice when more blackouts arrive.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

Big Tech is obsessed with finding enough energy and leaves no stone unturned. Bill Gates from Microsoft and Andrés Gluski from AES are leading the way…

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Tuesday thoughts at dawn…

A recent IPCC report highlights the urgency for immediate and intensified efforts to prevent severe long-term consequences of climate change. As fossil fuels still account for over 80% of global energy consumption, the energy sector must play a central role in addressing this issue.

The energy system is transitioning, with renewable energy generation experiencing rapid growth. The trend towards decarbonization is driven by decreasing costs and increasing investor interest. Decarbonizing the global energy system is a substantial undertaking, both in terms of scale and cost. Given the limited time available, there is a sense of urgency to act.

Transition efforts within the energy sector have predominantly focused on hardware, specifically the development of new low-carbon infrastructure to replace existing carbon-intensive systems. Limited attention and resources have been directed towards advanced digital technologies, specifically artificial intelligence (AI), which can serve as a crucial facilitator for the energy transition. The rapid adoption of this potent technology at larger scales surpasses the pace of integrating new hardware solutions.

Finally, acquiring the necessary permits for establishing new renewable capacity can be a prolonged and convoluted bureaucratic process, which can hinder this shift towards a more sustainable and eco-friendly energy production system. It is important to streamline the permit acquisition process to facilitate this transition.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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Power needs, natural gas, and AI were the main topics of discussion at the CERAWeek debate.

From CERAweek BY CAT CLIFFORD AND AMENA H. SAIYID, SENIOR SCIENCE AND ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENTS, WASHINGTON D.C., MARCH 25, 2024.

The energy transition will occur at varying rates worldwide and will be further complicated by the growing demand for electricity from power-hungry data centres and increasing electrification.

Cheap and readily available natural gas will continue to be a critical bridge fuel for the foreseeable future until lower carbon technologies are scaled up and prices come down.

These were among the top takeaways from the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, hosted by S&P Global. The event, primarily dominated by fossil-fuel producers, has evolved to embrace cleaner energy.

The debate among the thousands gathered at the conference, considered the largest of its kind in the world, was driven by the tension between energy security, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and clean energy, whose commercialization aims to stave off the worsening impacts of climate change.

Highlights from Houston:

include the prevalence of AI at the conference, with discussions on both its opportunities and potential costs. Andrés Gluski, the CEO of The AES Corporation, a global renewable developer, suggested changing the company's name from AES to AIS due to the high demand for electricity to power energy-hungry data centres that drive artificial intelligence. Gluski also emphasised the operational efficiencies that AI can bring to AES.

"I am excited about AI because I believe it will make us more efficient, not only in operations but also in development - identifying the optimal locations for data centres and renewables," stated Gluski.

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Artwork by Germán & Co

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The AI boom is fueling an insatiable appetite for electricity, which is creating risks to the grid and the transition to cleaner energy sources…

The Wall Street Journal by Katherine Blunt and Jennifer Hiller, March 24, 2024, editions by Germán & Co.

HOUSTON—Every March, thousands of executives take over a downtown hotel here to reach oil and gas deals and haggle over plans to tackle climate change. This year, the dominant theme of the energy industry’s flagship conference was a new one: artificial intelligence.

Tech companies roamed the hotel’s halls in search of utility executives and other power providers. More than 20 executives from Amazon and Microsoft spoke on panels. The inescapable topic—and the cause of equal parts anxiety and excitement—was AI’s insatiable appetite for electricity.

It isn’t clear just how much electricity will be required to power an exponential increase in data centers worldwide. But most everyone agrees the data centers needed to advance AI will require so much power they could strain the power grid and stymie the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Bill Vass, vice president of engineering at Amazon Web Services, said the world adds a new data center every three days. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates told the conference that electricity is the key input for deciding whether a data center will be profitable and that the amount of power AI will consume is staggering.

“You go, ‘Oh, my God, this is going to be incredible,’” said Gates.

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Though there was no dispute at the conference, called CERAWeek by S&P Global, that AI requires massive amounts of electricity, what was less clear was where it is going to come from.

Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said the size of new and proposed data centers to power AI has some utilities stumped as to how they are going to bring enough generation capacity online at a time when wind and solar farms are becoming more challenging to build. He said utilities will have to lean more heavily on natural gas, coal and nuclear plants, and perhaps support the construction of new gas plants to help meet spikes in demand. 

“We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years. You’re kind of stuck,” he said. 

The complication is that companies don’t just want to add new power sources, but clean ones, too. Many tech companies and utilities have made commitments to dramatically reduce the carbon emissions they produce.

Dominion Energy, a utility company based in Richmond, Va., has seen a sharp uptick in electricity demand driven by a build-out of data centers in northern Virginia, which has long been home to a large concentration of such facilities. The company, which has set a goal to eliminate or offset its carbon emissions by 2050, expects to build at least one gas-fired power plant to support it.

“We’re going to be net-zero by 2050. We still absolutely believe that,” said CEO Robert Blue. “But the demand growth now makes that more complicated.”

After a long period of stagnant demand for electricity, utilities are dialing up forecasts by astonishing amounts. The five-year projection of U.S. electricity demand growth has doubled from a year ago, according to a report from consulting firm Grid Strategies.

The surge in AI-driven power demand comes as other factors converge to create new strain on the grid. A wave of manufacturing plants are being developed across the U.S., spurred by new tax policies under the Inflation Reduction Act, and many states are working to use more electric power for transportation, heat and heavy industry.

New data centers can be built faster than new power generation and there is already a supply crunch. Construction timelines for data centers have been extended by two to six years because of power-supply delays, according to commercial-real-estate services firm CBRE Group.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has set a goal to eliminate carbon emissions from the U.S. electricity sector by 2035. John Podesta, the president’s point person on implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, told reporters that burgeoning AI demands create new challenges in hitting that target, though federal models show it is still possible. 

“We’re putting the accelerator down on developing those clean resources,” he said.

Still, utilities and tech companies are discussing the need for more fossil fuel to support demand. Toby Rice, CEO of giant U.S. natural-gas producer EQT, said tech firms building data centers are inquiring about buying gas from EQT. Rice said he got the same two questions at the conference: “How fast can you guys move? How much gas can we get?”

According to Rice, tech companies need reliable power, which renewable sources such as wind and solar can’t always provide because of the vagaries of weather. And large-scale nuclear facilities, only one of which is under construction in the U.S., have historically been expensive and time-consuming to build.

“Tech is not going to wait seven to 10 years to get this infrastructure built,” Rice said in an interview. “That leaves you with natural gas.”

Southern Company, a utility company serving customers in Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, last year made a significant revision to its power-demand forecast in Georgia, largely driven by the build-out of data centers and other industrial activity. 

What solutions should big tech explore to meet the growing power needs of data centers? Join the conversation below.

The company now expects 6,600 megawatts of demand growth through the winter of 2030, 17 times greater than the previous forecast. Southern has proposed adding three new gas turbines at a power plant southwest of Atlanta.

“With this unprecedented demand, all resources have to be in the mix,” CEO Chris Womack said in an interview.

About a third of the world’s 8,000 data centers are in the U.S., but the build-out is a worldwide phenomenon. Globally, the International Energy Agency estimates that electricity consumption from data centers, AI and cryptocurrency could double by 2026.

A data center build-out is also under way in Japan and will test that country’s power resources, said Yukio Kani, CEO of JERA, Japan’s largest power provider. 

“It’s a very hungry caterpillar,” said Kani.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

Unleashing the colossal power of wind energy with the world's largest plane!

---

Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Thoughts on a Sunday in Extinction...

In March, Le Monde Diplomatique underscored several concerns. The esteemed French publication, known for its foresight, announced the resurgence of ISIS, affirming that indeed, the group has returned.

“The US is not finding it easy to stop Houthi attacks off Yemen; what is behind Sudan’s long and bloody civil war? ISIS is back, and it is not a spent force; Arab states’ abandonment of the Palestinians; China, new power, old order; will Russia’s war in Ukraine make it more dependent on China? Ukraine’s Hungarian community is slowly disappearing; international law, once a set of ideas, is now a real force; Rezső Kasztner, the man who saved Jews from Auschwitz; foreign doctors fight for a fair deal in France; climate, can we adapt to +4°C?”

On January 28 this year, this blog published: “The intention to trigger a worldwide conflict should be readily apparent…

The apparent collaboration between Hamas and other nations has enabled the exchange of significant resources, information, and expertise. Hamas is widely considered the cause of Israel's third occupation of the region, sparking international discourse. Furthermore, Hamas has also been linked to the ongoing Suez Canal crisis, resulting in significant diplomatic tensions extending beyond the Middle East. Around 1 million barrels of crude oil, 1.4 million barrels of gasoline, and other refined products are transported daily from the Middle East and Asia to Europe through this canal. In the past three weeks, authorities from several European countries, including Sweden, Finland, and Norway, have expressed concerns and warnings about a potential conflict with Russia. Escalating regional tensions have prompted these nations to openly voice their grave concerns about the potential military conflict with their neighbouring country to the east."

Why did ISIS-K target Moscow?

Perhaps the answer lies in considering the profound impact that surprise attacks have had throughout history. One notable example is the Trojan Horse episode in Homer's The Odyssey, which serves as a vivid illustration of the strategic deception necessary to breach Troy's formidable defenses.

Similarly, the stunning victory achieved by Hannibal, leader of Carthage, over a more formidable Roman army in the Battle of Cannae in 206 BC shocked the ancient world and underscored the potency of surprise tactics.  Moving forward in history, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 marked a pivotal turning point in World War II, showcasing the capacity of surprise assaults to reshape the course of conflict.  

Post-World War II, surprise attacks continued to shape global events, with China's unexpected involvement in the Korean War of 1950 catching United Nations forces off guard and prompting a reorganization of the Korean Peninsula.  Furthermore, Israel's utilization of surprise tactics during the Six-Day War of 1967 and the October War of 1973 underscored the enduring impact of strategic cunning in the face of threats from neighbouring countries.  

The tragic assault on the Twin Towers in New York City on September 11th, 2001, and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic are stark reminders of the far-reaching consequences of unforeseen events, prompting societal shifts and unveiling deep-seated inequalities across the globe.

Finally, the jihadists mock President Vladomir Putin and urge him not to confuse their motives, while President Emmanuel Macron warns the Kremlin against entangling Ukraine in the aftermath of the terrorist attack.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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A rendering of the WindRunner aircraft. Designed by Radia, it would transport large wind turbine blades directly to wind farm sites. RADIA INC.

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Radia, a unicorn startup, plans to use rocket science to overcome one of the wind power industry’s biggest hurdles with a giant cargo plane…

From an article in the Wall Street Journal authored by Jennifer Hiller and Brian McGill and published on March 13, 2024, as part of the editions curated by Germán & Co.

An aerospace engineer proposes a giant plane for renewable energy revolution….

Mark Lundstrom, a rocket scientist trained at MIT and a Rhodes scholar, has dedicated over seven years collaborating with an expert engineering team in the intricate design process of the Windrunner. This revolutionary aircraft, once finalized, is poised to set a new benchmark as the longest and hold the title for having the largest cargo volume of any plane known to date.

The Windrunner, an innovative transportation solution, is specifically designed to carry wind turbine blades of exceptional lengths, comparable to football fields. These extraordinary blades, known as some of the longest globally, are predominantly utilized in offshore wind projects, primarily due to the logistical challenges faced in transporting them for onshore installations. Extending the reach of these immense turbines to vast land areas has the potential to transform the landscape of the wind energy industry.

The industry has observed a decrease in new onshore projects within the United States, coupled with price fluctuations in offshore projects. Due to these circumstances, land-based wind power installations are anticipated to showcase blade tips towering around 300 feet higher than the present average, equivalent to stacking the U.S. Capitol with the Washington Monument. These innovative projects hold the promise of producing nearly twice the amount of energy in comparison to existing onshore installations and could be viable in a broader array of locations.

The 3D model was created by Brian McGill/WSJ, with additional development by Peter Champelli/WSJ. The source of information is the company. Lundstrom's startup, Radia, located in Boulder, Colorado, has maintained the confidentiality of the design.

The Windrunner, anticipated to be 80 feet longer than the current largest military aircraft, is a colossal transport aircraft that boasts impressive dimensions. Stretching the length of a football field at 356 feet and towering 79 feet tall, this behemoth is tailored for the daunting task of transporting hefty wind turbine blades, a logistical puzzle on land. With a remarkable capacity of 80 tons, the Windrunner surpasses even the renowned Boeing 747 in both size and volume, making it the go-to choice for handling oversized cargo with unparalleled efficiency.

Lundstrom’s startup, Boulder, Colo.-based Radia, has kept the design private for years. Now, it says WindRunner is more than halfway through the eight years it estimates it will take to design, build and certify the aircraft.

Lundstrom founded Radia in 2016 as he looked for ways to marry aerospace with the energy transition when he read that delivering unwieldy blades is among the trickiest logistics jobs in the energy business.

“That was a very clear moment when the industry speaks to you,” Lundstrom said

The WindRunner would be the largest plane by length and cargo volume if completed. ILLUSTRATION: RADIA, INC.

Today’s offshore-sized wind blades can’t be used easily on land because they can’t move by rail or truck. They are too big to turn most corners and too wide to make it under bridges and traffic lights. Transporting them offshore requires specialized vessels. 

Radia has raised $104 million and is valued at $1 billion, according to PitchBook. Employees and advisers include current and former executives at Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration, utilities and renewable energy developers. Backers include oil giant ConocoPhillips and venture firms Caruso Ventures, Capital Factory and Good Growth Capital.

Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a member of Radia’s advisory board, said utilities are increasing their demand forecasts by huge factors. Electricity usage is surging because of the electrification of transportation and heating across much of the U.S., plus booms in manufacturing and in data centers for artificial intelligence.

“They also want clean electricity,” Moniz said.

Radia has raised $104 million and is valued at $1 billion, according to PitchBook. ILLUSTRATION: RADIA, INC.

Lundstrom plans to deliver blades for wind project developers and, in some instances, develop early stage projects on its own, though it doesn’t plan to own or operate the sites. 

The WindRunner includes shoulder-height tires and has the ability to land on a packed-dirt 6,000-foot runway, which would need to be built for each project. Lundstrom says projects would include about 25 of the supersize onshore turbines he envisions to be profitable.

Radia’s first customer is a large independent power producer that has bought a 1-gigawatt project in Nevada.

Bigger is better in wind. Larger blades can harvest more wind, while taller towers place blades where winds are more consistent. It adds up to more electricity over more hours of the day, even in areas with lower average wind speeds.

Radia estimates the larger turbines could reduce the cost of energy by up to 35% and increase the consistency of power generation by 20% compared with today’s onshore turbines.

Wind provided around 10% of large-scale electricity generation in the U.S. in 2022. It is a major source of electricity generation in the middle of the country, especially in Iowa, Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

Larger blades attached to taller towers would make wind more competitive everywhere while making more of the U.S. viable for wind development, said Jesse Jenkins, a professor at Princeton University who did a study for Radia as a consultant. But the larger towers would be visible to more people, which could stir community opposition.

“The biggest question mark is the social license and social acceptability,” Jenkins said.

The WindRunner would use existing technologies and components familiar to regulators, available through the existing aerospace supply chain, Lundstrom said. The company would use aircraft manufacturers to build the plane.

Rachel Kelley, former director of engineering at Boeing and Radia’s vice president of aircraft development, said the goal of the plane design was, “Do nothing new.” 

If building a new airplane sounds extreme, Kelley says other measures to move big blades are impractical. Blimps can’t land in windy conditions. Helicopters are more costly than airplanes, and flying with a dangling blade designed to catch wind would prove complex and dangerous. Skipping the logistics issue altogether and building mobile manufacturing on site would require temporary structures as big as football fields.

The plane would be able to fit one large, offshore-sized blade at a time, or it could carry as many as four shorter blades. Lundstrom also thinks it has other uses for moving large equipment for the military or oil-and-gas industry.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Japan prioritizes offshore wind energy, showing dedication to sustainable…

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Monday thought…

Last year in the 5th edition of Japan Energy Wind, industry experts recognized the vast potential of offshore wind development, showcasing significant promise for Japan's renewable energy goals. The country has ambitiously targeted installing up to 45 GW of offshore wind power by 2040 to meet its clean energy objectives. With an estimated long-term potential for offshore wind power reaching around 1,100 GW, the region demonstrates a wealth of untapped opportunities for expanding renewable energy sources.

Unfortunately, the bidding process is known for its complexity and lengthy duration, spanning a period of 6 to 8 years. This illness remains a prevalent and widespread issue on a global scale. Institutional investment plays a crucial role in fueling industry growth, as it provides the necessary financial support for companies to thrive. Despite its benefits, raising capital in this sector remains a challenging endeavor primarily due to the inherent risks associated with construction projects.

In Japan's second round of offshore wind tenders, careful consideration of the new rules, critical issues like pricing, and point allocations is essential. The fate of floating wind energy in Japan hinges on the removal of the 12 nautical mile restriction. Forecasts predict a flourishing industry beyond 2030. Developers are grappling with obstacles related to port access and efficient vessel logistics, demanding swift resolution to propel project advancements. Effective collaboration among stakeholders, encompassing governments, financial institutions, technology suppliers, and service providers, is paramount for capitalizing on investment prospects and unleashing Japan's offshore wind capacity to its fullest.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

---

"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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The serene Toyana bay in Japan. Germán & Co via Shutterstock.

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TOKYO, March 15 (Reuters) - A group of Japanese energy firms including Mitsubishi's wind power unit, JERA and Tokyo Gas, have set up an association to boost the development of floating offshore wind farms and jointly create technology, they said on Friday.

Japan aims to become a major offshore wind power producer, with the government targeting 10 gigawatt (GW) projects by 2030 and up to 45 GW by 2040 as part of its decarbonisation push, for which floating offshore wind is essential.

The group of 14 companies said they have set up the Floating Offshore Wind Technology Research Association to realize commercialisation of large-scale floating offshore wind farms in a wide area by jointly developing technology and creating international standards with overseas organizations.

Floating offshore wind power is seen as a way to ensure Japan has a stable and sustainable energy supply and its development will also stimulate the local economy and promote Japanese industries, the group said in a statement.

Other members include Nippon Telegraph and Telephone's energy unit, Tohoku Electric Power, Kansai Electric Power and Marubeni Corp's wind power unit .

The move, first reported by a local media, comes as the Japanese government this week approved a draft amendment to existing legislation to allow for the installation of offshore wind power in exclusive economic zones (EEZ), a milestone towards the country's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

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Japan aims to lead global offshore wind energy production alongside China and Britain, transitioning to a zero-emission economy for enhanced energy security.

Although Japanese companies have offshore wind assets in countries from Taiwan to Belgium and Britain, they have yet to build large-scale farms at home.

Japan plans to announce by the end of March the winners of a second major round of offshore wind tenders to build 1.8 gigawatt (GW) of capacity in four areas.

HOW DOES JAPAN PLAN TO BOOST CAPACITY?

Japan's 136 megawatt (MW) of offshore wind capacity installed by 2022 was a fraction of Britain's nearly 14 GW and China's 31 GW, the Global Wind Energy Council says.

It aims to have 10 GW by 2030, with up to 45 GW operational by 2040, as it targets a share of 36% to 38% for renewables in its electricity mix by the end of this decade, compared to about 20% now, in its race to be carbon neutral by 2050.

A Marubeni-led consortium (8002.T), opens new tab launched Japan's first large-scale commercial offshore wind operations at Noshiro port (84 MW) and Akita port (55 MW) in late 2022 and early 2023.

Danish wind turbine maker Vestas (VWS.CO), opens new tab provided bottom-fixed turbines for Marubeni's farms.

WHAT WAS THE RESULT OF THE FIRST ROUND?

A Mitsubishi-led consortium (8058.T), opens new tab won all three offshore wind farm auctions in 2021 in the regions of Akita and Chiba, with combined capacity of 1.7 GW and a target start-up date of 2028 to 2030.

00:04Shell scales back 2030 carbon emissions target

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All will have bottom-fixed structures. General Electric (GE.N), opens new tab will make 134 wind turbines, each of capacity 13 MW, to be assembled and maintained by Japan's Toshiba (6502.T), opens new tab.

The first round spurred interest by foreign companies in entering the Japanese market, among them Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO), opens new tab, Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE), opens new tab and Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL), opens new tab.

WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SECOND ROUND?

The government wrapped up its six-month auction for another 1.8 GW of capacity in four areas on June 30, with winners set to be announced by the end of March 2024, or even as soon as December.

The revised rules bar companies from revealing intent to bid.

For the second round, the ministry of economy, trade and industry (METI) set a bid price cap of 19 yen per kilowatt hour (kWh), below the first round figure of 29 yen, except for Enoshima, where construction challenges kept the ceiling at 29 yen.

JERA, Japan's top power generator, said it was running environmental assessments of the Oga-Katagami-Akita project and the Happo-Noshiro project.

Other companies making assessments - an indication of a bid - included Mitsui & Co (8031.T), opens new tab, Osaka Gas (9532.T), opens new tab, TEPCO Renewable Power (9501.T), opens new tab, Itochu Corp (8001.T), opens new tab, Tokyo Gas (9531.T), opens new tab, Marubeni and some foreigners, environmental ministry documents show.

The government is gathering public opinion until Dec. 17 for a third round of auctions to offer 1.05 GW on two offshore wind farms.

WHAT ARE THE PLANS FOR FLOATING OFFSHORE PLANTS?

In 2021, the government selected a consortium of six companies led by Toda Corp (1860.T), opens new tab to build the 16.8 MW Goto floating offshore wind farm in Nagasaki prefecture. It was the only auction bidder for the small project.

In September, Toda and its partners flagged a two-year delay in startup of the Goto project, to January 2026, because of defects in a floating structure.

Japan is preparing a new roadmap for floating offshore wind power by the end of March 2024.

WHAT CONSTRAINTS AWAIT?

METI recommends a domestic share of 60% of the supply chain by 2040. All major global renewable energy companies, from Orsted and RWE to BP, Equinor and Iberdrola, have set up offices in Japan.

GE Renewable Energy (GE.N), opens new tab has teamed with Toshiba Energy Systems & Solutions to make GE's Haliade-X offshore wind turbines near Tokyo from 2026, turning out about 80 units a year, or 1 GW annually.

The partnership is the sole nacelle supplier for the first round.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

What Another Six Years of Putin May Bring for Russia and the World…

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Sunday thought in the quiet of the moment…

EU president congratulates Putin on ‘landslide’ win … as Russian voting kicks off.

“No opposition. No freedom. No choice,” blasted sarcastic Charles Michel.

A zinger from Charles Michel! Yes, really.

The European Council president congratulated Vladimir Putin on his big win in the Russian presidential election — just as three days of voting began Friday.

“I would like to congratulate Vladimir Putin on his landslide victory in the elections starting today,” blasted Michel, who is more renowned for diplomatic faux pas than social media snark. “There is no opposition, no freedom, no choice.”

 POLITICO EU BY CLAUDIA CHIAPPA  

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

---

"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock...

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Vladimir Putin’s fifth term in office will likely be dominated by the war in Ukraine and making sure Russians support it

WSJ By Ann M. Simmons, March 17, 2024

What’s next for Vladimir Putin?

After 24 years in the Kremlin, the Russian leader is on the cusp of securing another six years as president as this weekend’s presidential election winds up Sunday. The vote itself is largely a formality, putting him on the path to becoming Russia’s longest-serving leader since Stalin. His government pulled out all the stops to secure the win. It jailed critics, muzzled the press and introduced new laws to stamp out anything that could be considered criticism of his war in Ukraine. Putin’s most effective opponent, Alexei Navalny, was gone, found dead in an Arctic prison camp last month where he was serving out sentences totaling 30 years in circumstances that haven’t been fully explained.

What matters more is the extent of his victory. Putin, now 71 years old, doesn’t just want to win. Analysts who follow the country’s politics say he needs to win big if he wants a free hand in reviving what he says are Russia’s conservative Orthodox traditions and, ultimately, prevailing in Ukraine and in his broader confrontation with the West.

“This would legitimize Putin’s legacy and his war of aggression, relegating the remaining opposition to an even more marginalized role, and allowing Putin to implement, unchecked, his vision for the next six years,” the European Parliament Think Tank, which provides analysis and research on policy issues relating to the European Union, said in a briefing paper this month.

The last presidential election in 2018 put turnout at 67.5%, with close to 77% of the vote going to Putin, according to government data. The Kremlin has made clear it wants even higher numbers this time around to provide the Russian leader a free hand in pursuing his objectives, following the “tradition of post-election carte blanche for Putin,” as Boris Vishnevsky, deputy head of the opposition party Yabloko, put it in comments posted on his Telegram channel.

Putin has already signaled some of his plans in speeches and interviews. Chief among them is his insistence on carrying on the war in Ukraine as the U.S.’s support for Kyiv shows signs of wavering.

“I think this is what the election was about—that this is a national war, that he’s the leader of the nation in this existential struggle to maintain Russia’s role in the world, to maintain Russia’s territorial integrity,” said Angela Stent, author of the book “Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest” and a senior adviser at the Washington, D.C. -based United States Institute of Peace. “Everything that he has signaled is that he’s going to continue the war.”

Observers predict the Russian leader could soon launch another wave of arrests and detentions at home, new laws to stifle dissent and increased taxes on the rich. Analysts said there could also be a new wave of mobilizations to reinforce Russia’s growing advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine.

“What we have seen recently is an increase in activity of Russian intelligence and security services, which are extremely aggressive,” a reflection of the regime’s pre-election paranoia, Andrei Soldatov, a senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for European Policy Analysis told a media briefing on Thursday. “Because it is political stability which is at stake, everything is justifiable, including the killing of political opponents [and] attacks abroad,” he said.

Soldatov predicted the clampdown on criticism evident in the run-up to the election will continue once the vote is done, following a familiar pattern in Russia.

“They use the election as an excuse, and then they just make these methods and activities part of their playbook. My biggest concern is that they’re going to be using this for months and months to come,” he said.

Putin may face a more delicate balancing act in keeping Russia’s economy ticking. It has fared relatively well despite Western sanctions, with trade with China and buoyant oil prices helping to insulate the country’s political and business elite from any real hardship. Analysts said he would likely focus on making sure Russians continue living life as normal, while also announcing plans to spend billions of dollars to tackle poverty and to rebuild much of the country’s aging infrastructure as more of the economy goes into a war footing.

To pay for it, Putin has proposed a more progressive taxation system that some analysts suggested was aimed at appeasing poorer Russians who are making more sacrifices, both financially and in terms of family members being drafted to fight in the war.

“Truly, the distribution of the tax burden should be fair in the sense that corporations, legal entities, and individuals who earn more should contribute more to the national treasury, towards addressing nationwide problems, primarily towards fighting against poverty,” he said in an interview on state television on Wednesday.

He also spoke of creating a new elite composed of veterans and those who served in the Ukraine war and has called for them to be given more support, including academic opportunities and training.

“The true, real elite is everyone who serves Russia, workers and warriors, reliable, proven, who have proven their devotion to Russia, worthy people,” Putin said. 

Some analysts described such rhetoric as empty pre-election promises. What seems more realistic, they said, was that Putin could eventually order a second mobilization, needed to gain a battlefield advantage at a time when Ukraine has faced some foot-dragging from Western nations supporting its military campaign.

Putin’s first draft of some 300,000 men in September 2022 sent hundreds of thousands fleeing across the border, among them droves of young professionals. The Russian leader will need to find a way to prevent a repetition of the exodus, such as closing the border, some analysts said. 

“There’s no evidence they wouldn’t incur the same kind of resistance if he did it in the next few months,” Stent said. Though some polls show that Russians largely support the war, “it’s another thing to have their fathers, sons, brothers mobilized and sent to fight,” she said.

Other Russia watchers suggested that in addition to throwing more money at potential contract soldiers, another way to replenish the troops on the battlefield would be to draw more conscripts into the fight.

Under Russian law, conscripts aren’t supposed to be deployed to fight in Ukraine, only reservists who have completed their military service and training. But last summer, Russia raised the maximum conscription age by three years to 30 and established that conscripts would be able to enter into contracts for military service for one year during certain circumstances, including during a period of mobilization, in wartime and when the Russia’s armed forces are fighting outside the country.

Some Russians braved the threat of arrest to voice their opposition to Putin as voting began on Friday. The Central Election Commission reported five incidents of voters trying to sabotage ballot boxes by pouring liquid into them, including dye. The Investigative Committee, the country’s main federal investigating authority, said it was investigating several such incidents on criminal grounds.

The deputy election-commission chairman, Nikolai Bulaev, accused opposition elements of adopting what he said were terrorism tactics. His boss, Ella Pamfilova, called the suspects “scum” who deserved to go to jail for up to five years, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported.

In a separate incident, investigators said they had opened a criminal probe into the case of a woman suspected of setting fire to a voting booth at a polling station in southeast Moscow. Maria Andreeva, who is among a movement of wives and mothers campaigning for their mobilized men to be returned home, posted a letter from prosecutors on Telegram warning her against participating in unauthorized public events planned at polling stations in Moscow.

The real test of opposition may be yet to come.

Putin’s critics, including Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, joined forces by calling for voters to flood polling stations at noon on Sunday, and for those brave enough, to wear blue and white—colors that have been used to symbolize opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Opponents have also encouraged people to spoil their ballots or vote for someone else.

At this point, it is more a token gesture of defiance, though, and one that could result in severe consequences for anyone caught up in another crackdown.

The more significant election could be the presidential vote in the U.S. in November. Stent, the analyst, said Putin was likely waiting for the outcome along with other elections in Europe, where support for Ukraine is also showing cracks.

“He’s awaiting what will happen if Western support for Ukraine erodes, and there are already clearly differences in the alliance about that,” she said. “I think he’s going to continue the war for as long as he needs to. At this point, he feels that time is on his side.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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How imminent is a worldwide electricity outage? Amidst an escalating demand for power, the United States confronts a concerning deficit in energy supply."

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Who is Germán & Co?

From Puerto Octay, overlooking Llanquihue Lake in southern Chile, the setting for Gaspar Antillo's film Nobody Knows I'm Here, I try to examine the mind of my friend and colleague, Germán Toro Ghio.

'In the divine vineyard, you choose your own path is a beautiful metaphor.'

As we make our way along the journey of life, some of us choose to travel in the fast lane in vehicles with sleek engines and plush seats, while some of us prefer slower speeds and budget-friendly tolls on scenic routes. Some of us endure crowded buses with loud music or navigate challenging terrains, facing harsh weather conditions and wildlife.

Germán’s stories feature individuals who have chosen unconventional paths in the journey of life: some of them use elevators, rappel down cliffs, or fly in contraptions. His explorations endlessly take his viewers on exciting adventures, from the unease of a Moscow hotel to the excitement of jungle escapades in Nicaragua, from brilliantly-lit worlds pulsing with electricity to dark worlds immersed in infinite blackouts.

Finally, Germán tantalizes us with an eclectic mix in his creative pot, leaving us eager for more of his daily works. His narratives enrich and untangle the most complex history by shedding light on experiences beyond the battlefields and palaces.

Juan Forch

*Juan Forch is a political scientist, filmmaker, writer, publicist and the co-creator of the influential "NO" political campaign, a significant milestone in the history of political communication. His unique creations have inspired an Oscar-nominated film by Pablo Larraín featuring Gael García Bernal, solidifying his legacy as a political marketing mastermind.

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Notes from the editor:

The looming possibility of a widespread blackout is becoming increasingly concerning as the strain on the power grid continues to escalate…

Many will say how crazy this is... But the truth is not...

In the 2021 Electricity Market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a significant increase in global electricity consumption. And this stark warning from the IEA came eight months before the Soviet gas squeeze left Europe in a serious supply restriction crisis, and the most severe damage to the economy... Last week came another warning to this effect from the Washington Post...

The truth is that the market is currently being overlooked, necessitating a closer examination of its requirements to provide the necessary adaptability to accommodate the increasing prevalence of renewable energy sources.

Regulatory frameworks need to be updated and adjusted to the current surge in energy demand to facilitate a seamless transition to emerging technologies. Achieving a successful market transition requires a delicate balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability.

Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly evident that there is a need to strike a balance between sustainability, reliability, and affordability. Otherwise, it will be challenging to manage the transition to incorporate the new technologies effectively.

Finally, how can we assess the severity of the prolonged delays in permitting processes that hinder the acceleration of market transition? If the signs are not taken seriously, we will be left uninformed.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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Image by Germán & Co via Shutterstock...

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“The 2021 Electricity Market report presents a comprehensive analysis of the current scenario, revealing the alarming rise in the global demand for power.

"Electricity demand globally is growing faster than the expansion of renewable energy sources, leading to a significant increase in the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), there will be a 5% increase in electricity demand in 2021, with almost half of this demand being met by fossil fuels, especially coal. The trend of increasing global electricity demand poses a threat of record-high carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector in 2022.

Although renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind, and solar photovoltaic are expanding rapidly, they require support to meet the increasing demand, resulting in a notable increase in coal power usage. The report predicts that global electricity demand will increase by almost 5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, mainly due to the global economic recovery.

Most of this growth is expected to come from the Asia Pacific region, particularly China and India. Despite the significant growth of renewable energy sources, they are only projected to meet approximately half of the expected increase in global electricity demand over the next two years. It is predicted that fossil fuel-based electricity generation will meet 45% of the additional demand in 2021 and 40% in 2022, with nuclear power accounting for the rest.

This will result in a projected increase of 3.5% in carbon emissions from the electricity sector in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022, reaching an all-time high. The report emphasizes the significance of investing in clean energy technologies, especially renewables and energy efficiency, to shift towards a sustainable path and reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

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Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power...

WP Story by Evan Halper

Vast swaths of the United States are at risk of running short of power as electricity-hungry data centers and clean-technology factories proliferate around the country, leaving utilities and regulators grasping for credible plans to expand the nation's aging power grid.

In Georgia, the demand for industrial power is surging to record highs, with the projection of new electricity use for the next decade now 17 times higher than it was only recently. Arizona Public Service, the largest utility in the state, is also struggling to keep up. It projects that it will run out of transmission capacity before the end of the decade unless significant upgrades are made.

Northern Virginia requires several large nuclear power plants to support the new data centers that are planned and under construction. Texas, where electricity shortages are already routine on hot summer days, faces the same dilemma.

The soaring demand is sparking a scramble to extract more energy from an aging power grid while compelling commercial customers to take extraordinary measures to secure energy sources, such as constructing their own power plants."

When you look at the numbers, they are staggering," said Jason Shaw, chairman of the Georgia Public Service Commission, which regulates electricity. It makes you scratch your head and wonder how we ended up in this situation. How were the projections so far off? "This has created a challenge like we have never seen before."

A significant factor behind the skyrocketing demand is the rapid innovation in artificial intelligence, which is driving the construction of large warehouses of computing infrastructure that require exponentially more power than traditional data centers. AI is also a part of the significant expansion of cloud computing.

Tech companies such as Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are actively searching across the nation for locations to build new data centers, while many smaller companies are also looking for suitable sites.

The proliferation of crypto mining, where currencies like Bitcoin are transacted and minted, drives the growth of data centers. This is putting new pressure on an overtaxed grid—the network of transmission lines and power stations that distribute electricity across the country. Bottlenecks are mounting, causing delays for both new energy generators and clean energy providers, as well as large consumers, in getting connected.

The situation is sparking battles across the nation over who will pay for new power supplies, with regulators worrying that residential ratepayers could be stuck with the bill for costly upgrades. It also threatens to stifle the transition to cleaner energy as utility executives lobby to delay the retirement of fossil fuel plants and bring more online. The power crunch imperils their ability to supply the energy needed to charge the millions of electric cars and household appliances required to meet state and federal climate goals.

According to the International Energy Agency, the nation's 2,700 data centers consumed more than 4% of the country's total electricity in 2022. Its projections show that by 2026, they will consume 6 percent. Industry forecasts show that data centers are consuming a larger share of U.S. electricity in the coming years. This trend is occurring as demand from residential and smaller commercial facilities remains relatively stable, due to the continuous improvement in efficiencies of appliances and heating and cooling systems.

Data center operators are eager to connect to regional electricity grids, while the Biden administration's industrial policy is attracting companies to build factories in the United States at a pace not seen in decades. Manufacturers of "clean tech," such as solar panels and electric car batteries, are attracted by lucrative federal incentives.

According to the Electric Power Research Institute, a research and development organization, companies announced plans to build or expand more than 155 factories in this country during the first half of the Biden administration. Since the early 1990s, factory construction has accounted for  a significant portion of U.S. construction spending, according to the group.

Utility projections for the power they will need over the next five years have nearly doubled. According to a review of regulatory filings by the research firm Grid Strategies, growth is expected.

Chasing power previously, companies tried to locate their data centers in areas with significant internet infrastructure, a large pool of tech talent, and attractive government incentives. But these locations are becoming crowded.

Communities with little connection to the computing industry now find themselves in the middle of a land rush, with data center developers flooding their markets with requests for grid hookups. Officials in Columbus, Ohio; Altoona, Iowa; and Fort Wayne, Indiana, are being aggressively courted by data center developers.

However, the power supply in some of these secondary markets is already running low, pushing developers further out, in some cases into cornfields, according to JLL, a commercial real estate firm catering to the tech industry.

Grid Strategies warns in its report that "there are real risks that some regions may miss out on economic development opportunities because the grid can't keep up

.""Across the board, we are seeing power companies saying,

'We do not know if we can handle this; we have to audit our system; we have never dealt with this kind of influx before,'" said Andy Cvengros, managing director of data center markets at JLL. "Everyone is now chasing power."

They are willing to look everywhere for it.

"We saw a quadrupling of land values in some parts of Columbus and a tripling in areas of Chicago," he said. "It is not about the land." It is about access to power. Some developers, he said, have had to sell the property they bought at inflated prices at a loss after utilities became overwhelmed by the rush for grid hookups.

Rethinking Incentives It is all happening simultaneously, and the energy transition is leading a large number of Americans to depend on the power grid to power vehicles, heat pumps, induction stoves, and all kinds of other household appliances that used to be fueled by fossil fuels. Much clean energy is also needed to create the green hydrogen championed by the White House.

Developers are rushing to build plants that can produce this powerful zero-emissions fuel, enticed by generous federal subsidies.

Planners are increasingly concerned that the grid will not be green or powerful enough to meet these demands.

Soaring power consumption is already causing delays in the closure of coal plants in Kansas, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and South Carolina.

In Georgia, the state's primary power company, Georgia Power, stunned regulators when it recently revealed how wildly inaccurate its projections were, attributing the discrepancy to data centers.

The demand has prompted Georgia officials to reconsider the state's policy of offering incentives to attract computing operations. These operations generate few jobs but can boost community budgets through the hefty property taxes they pay. The top leaders of Georgia's House and Senate, both Republicans, are advocating for a temporary halt in data center incentives.

Georgia regulators are currently investigating ways to safeguard ratepayers while also guaranteeing an adequate power supply to meet the demands of the state's highly valued new occupants: clean-technology companies.

Factories supplying the electric vehicle and green energy markets have been rushing to locate in Georgia, largely due to promises of affordable and dependable electricity.

When the data center industry began looking for new hubs, "Atlanta was like, 'Bring it on,'" said Pat Lynch, who leads the Data Center Solutions team at the real estate giant CBRE. "Now Georgia Power is warning of limitations."

Utility shortages in the face of these data center demands are occurring in almost every market. Utility wires in Atlanta. Georgia regulators aim to safeguard ratepayers while also guaranteeing an adequate power supply for the state's most valued new occupants: clean-tech companies.

A similar dynamic exists in another region: the Pacific Northwest. In Oregon, Portland General Electric recently doubled its forecast for new electricity demand over the next five years, citing data centers and "rapid industrial growth" as the drivers.

The power crunch disrupted the plans of Michael Halaburda and Arman Khalili, long-time data center developers. Their latest project involves converting a mothballed tile factory in the Portland area. The two were under the impression only a couple of months ago that they would be fine with obtaining the electricity needed to run the place.

The power company then informed them that a "line and load study" would be required to determine if it could provide the facility with 60 megawatts of electricity, approximately the amount necessary to power 45,000 homes.

Going off the grid The Portland project that Halaburda and Khalili are developing will now be powered largely by off-the-grid, high-tech fuel cells that convert natural gas into low-emission electricity.

The technology will be supplemented by whatever power can be secured from the grid. The partners have decided that for their next project in South Texas, they will not rely on the grid at all. Instead, they will drill thousands of feet into the ground to extract geothermal energy.Halaburda sees the growth as beneficial for the country and the economy.

"But no one took into consideration where this is all going," he said. "In the next couple of years, unless there is a real focus on expanding the grid and making it more robust, we are going to see opportunities fall by the wayside because we can't get power to where it is needed.

“Companies are increasingly turning to off-the-grid experiments as their frustration with the logjam in the nation's traditional electricity network mounts.

Microsoft and Google are among the companies hoping that energy-intensive industrial operations can ultimately be powered by small nuclear plants on-site. Microsoft even utilized AI to streamline the cumbersome process of obtaining plant approvals.

Microsoft has also signed a deal to purchase power from a company that is working on developing zero-emissions fusion power. However, going off the grid presents significant regulatory and land acquisition challenges. For example, the type of nuclear plants envisioned still needs to be operational in the United States. Fusion power does not yet exist.

The big tech companies are also exploring ways AI can help make the grid operate more efficiently. According to Google, they are developing platforms that can shift computing tasks and their associated energy consumption to times and locations where carbon-free energy is available on the grid during peak power demand. However, meeting both their zero-emissions pledges and their AI innovation ambitions is becoming increasingly complicated as the energy needs of their data centers grow.

"These problems are not going away," said Michael Ortiz, CEO of Layer 9 Data Centers, a U.S. company aiming to circumvent the bottleneck by constructing facilities in Mexico.

"Data centers will need to become more efficient, and we must utilize cleaner sources of energy, such as nuclear power. “Officials at Equinix, one of the world's largest data center companies, have been experimenting with fuel cells as backup power. However, they remain hopeful that they can continue to rely on the power grid as their main source of electricity for new projects.

The logjam is already pushing officials overseeing the clean-energy transition at some of the nation's largest airports to look beyond the grid. The energy required to charge fleets of electric rental vehicles and ground maintenance trucks alone is immense. An analysis shows that electricity demand will double by 2030 at the Denver and Minneapolis airports. By 2040, they will need more than triple the electricity they are using now, according to the study commissioned by the car rental giant Enterprise, Xcel Energy, and Jacobs, a consulting firm.

"Utilities are not going to be able to move quickly enough to provide all this capacity," said Christine Weydig, Vice President of Transportation at AlphaStruxure, a company that designs and operates clean-energy projects. "The infrastructure is not there." Different solutions will be needed. Airports are considering significantly expanding the utilization of clean-power "microgrids" that they can construct on-site.

The Biden administration has prioritized easing the grid bottleneck, but it is politically fraught and limited in federal powers. Building the transmission lines and transfer stations requires extensive land acquisitions, thorough environmental reviews, and negotiations to determine cost responsibilities.

The process runs through state regulatory agencies, and fights between states over who bears the cost and where power lines should be placed routinely hinder and delay proposed projects. The number of new transmission lines installed in the United States has significantly decreased since 2013, when 4,000 miles were added. Now, the nation struggles to bring online even 1,000 new miles a year.

The slowdown has real consequences not just for companies but also for the climate. A group of scientists, led by Princeton University professor Jesse Jenkins, warned in a report that by 2030, the United States risks losing out on 80% of the potential emission reductions from President Biden's signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, if the pace of transmission construction does not pick up dramatically now.

The proliferation of data centers increases pressure on states to approve new transmission lines, complicating the task. Officials in Maryland are protesting a $5.2 billion  infrastructure plan designed to transmit power to large data centers in Loudoun County, Virginia. The Maryland Office of People's Counsel, a government agency that advocates for ratepayers, criticized grid operator PJM's plan as "fundamentally unfair." The agency argued that the plan could result in Maryland utility customers bearing the cost of power transmission to data centers that Virginia actively pursued and is using to generate significant tax revenue.

In Texas, a dramatic increase in data centers for crypto mining is sparking a debate over whether they are a costly burden on an overtaxed grid. An analysis by the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie found that the energy required by cryptocurrency operations seeking to connect to the grid would amount to a quarter of the electricity consumed in the state during peak demand. Unlike data centers operated by big tech companies like Google and Meta, crypto miners typically do not invest in renewable energy projects to provide sufficient zero-emission energy to the grid for their operations.

The result, as stated by Ben Hertz-Shargel, the author of the Wood Mackenzie analysis, is that the energy consumption of cryptocurrencies poses a threat to Texas' capacity to support other energy-intensive activities crucial for fostering innovation and economic development.

These activities include the operation of factories producing zero-emission green hydrogen fuel and industrial charging stations facilitating the electrification of truck and bus fleets.

After decades of readily available power, regulators and utility executives across the country are generally not empowered to prioritize which projects get connected. It is first come, first served, and the line is growing longer.

To address the issue, some states have enacted laws to safeguard the access of crypto mining to significant power resources."Lawmakers need to consider this," Hertz-Shargel emphasized when discussing the allocation of  an increasingly limited power supply. There is a risk that strategic industries may face challenges when trying to establish themselves in those states.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

The ‘elephant in the room’ that risks exposing Britain’s net zero agenda… (The Telegraph)

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Notes from the editor:

To be or not to be is the big question that suddenly confronts the net-zero emission movement...

The challenge of reducing CO2 emissions is a significant issue for central banks and governments amid the current global inflation. For some banks, there is an increasing acknowledgement of their role in funding the transition from carbon-emitting activities. Meanwhile, governments are tasked with creating policies to encourage CO2 reductions while considering the economic impacts of an already very complex economy. Both face the difficult task of transitioning to a low-carbon economy, which involves managing the shift from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources.

Banks are under pressure from stakeholders and regulators to reduce financed emissions. However, a powerful movement is also working behind the scenes, indicating the risks involved if all efforts are directed towards renewable energy. At the same time, they advocate for a red-carpet return to nuclear power, with many aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050. However, the dilemma for banks and governments is balancing economic growth, environmental responsibility, and societal expectations. For instance, Citigroup, a major financier of fossil fuel businesses, may need to raise $73 billion under a climate stress scenario. Central banks are also developing stress tests to assess climate change risks for the banks they oversee.

Finally, this analysis elucidates the factors contributing to the anticipated delayed pace of transformation within major financial institutions. These old conservative institutions perceive a formidable obstacle in the intricate nature of their financial operations, likened to a substantial and seemingly insatiable elephant in the room.

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In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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Source: The Telegraph

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UK’s ‘hidden’ carbon emissions fail to show the bigger picture

Jonathan Leake11 March 2024

It’s one of the Government’s proudest boasts. Britain, it claims, has almost halved its greenhouse gas emissions from 800m tonnes in 1990 to just 417m tonnes in 2022.

It’s a staggering decrease – a faster decline than almost any other advanced nation. And it is a fact that is used regularly by politicians to trumpet the UK’s progress.

“We’re far ahead of every other country in the world,” Rishi Sunak said in September. “We’ve had the fastest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the G7. Down almost 50pc since 1990. France? 22pc. The US? No change at all. China? Up by over 300pc.”

But can a nation whose population has grown by several million in the past two decades, with each citizen consuming more than ever, really have cut emissions by such a massive amount?

Part of the answer to that question lies in the databases of Leeds University where the UK’s official “consumption emissions” figures – the statistical elephant in the room – are compiled by a team led by Professor John Barrett.

When politicians say that emissions have fallen to 400m tonnes, they are referring to the greenhouse gases emitted within Britain’s borders, from power stations, cars, homes, offices and what’s left of industry. These are known as territorial – or production – emissions.

What they exclude is everything else, meaning all foreign-produced cars, clothes, food and every other import as well as the shipping that imports those goods into the UK, and most of the aviation fuel burned for passenger flights.

These overseas emissions used to be relatively small, but as the UK’s own industries have shrunk, they have become an ever-increasing proportion of the overall carbon footprint.

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Source: ONS

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In 1990, overseas emissions totalled less than 200m tonnes of CO2 emissions per year. Since then the UK’s increasing reliance on imports means overseas emissions totalled 350m to 400m tonnes.

Last year the UK exported goods worth £393bn according to government data. However, Britain imported goods worth £581bn, resulting in an excess of £189bn. 

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“Within a couple of years, greenhouse gas emissions associated with UK consumption will result in more emissions outside the UK than inside the UK,” says Leeds University’s Barrett. “Emissions embodied in imports will be more than the total territorial emissions in the UK.”

In real terms it means that, in addition to the 400m or so tonnes of CO2 pouring from Britain’s homes, vehicles and remaining smokestacks, there are another 350m to 400m tonnes being produced on the UK’s behalf but in other countries. If you add those two figures together and make an adjustment for the UK’s exports, you get Britain’s overall carbon footprint – its consumption emissions – which now total around 750m to 800m tonnes.

It is a marked fall from 1990 when the UK’s consumption emissions totalled 1bn tonnes but nowhere near the 50pc cut claimed by Mr Sunak last year. 

“We have provided the Government with the UK’s consumption-based emissions data for many years,” says Barrett. “However, it is rarely or never quoted when statements are made about emission reduction. I believe it should be. Both approaches are needed.”

Energy consumption figures give an answer as to why the UK’s own CO2 emissions have sunk so rapidly. In 2022, the country used less energy from all sources including coal, gas and renewables than in any year since 1970. 

The Government’s energy statistics briefings link this to warm weather and improved efficiency.

Perhaps one of the most obvious contributors is the closure of the fleet of coal-fired power stations that provided around 40pc of UK electricity as recently as the 1990s but which emitted tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 a year. However, although their closure caused some of the decline in emissions, it cannot explain the fall in overall energy consumption. 

For economists there has always been a direct link between economic growth and rising energy consumption; the more energy a country can consume, the richer its population becomes. 

Jorge León, senior vice-president for oil and energy research at Rystad Energy, says: “I’ve heard loads of politicians saying, ‘look, this decline in energy consumption is great, we’ve become more efficient’. But I don’t think it is all due to greater efficiency.

“We have seen many energy intensive industries closing down in Europe because of the high energy costs. This is a broad macroeconomic environment where things are not looking great, where output is decreasing. Our declining emissions reflect that.”

The Government’s own statistics show that the sector experiencing the biggest decline in energy use is UK industry. In 1970 when the UK still had its own steel and other heavy industries, energy equivalent to 65m tonnes of oil was consumed. By 2022 that had plummeted by two-thirds to 22m tonnes.

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Source: GOV. UK

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Some industrialists warn it will sink further still. Last month, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, head of chemicals giant Ineos, wrote to Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, warning that the UK and Europe were “sleepwalking towards offshoring its industry, jobs, investments, and emissions”.

Sir Jim added that carbon taxes, designed to drive emissions down still further, were also “driving away investment”.

“These taxes have encouraged imports from countries without carbon taxes, which has increased the carbon footprint of Europe,” he said. “We’re not doing the world any favours if we’re substituting relatively high-quality production here in terms of emissions with poorer quality, lower regulated production from other parts of the world.”

Asked why ministers always cite the UK’s territorial emissions but never mention overall consumption, a government spokesman said: “The data is calculated using the agreed international approach to report emissions produced within each territory to avoid them being double counted.”

However the Government’s own advisers, the Climate Change Committee, said in its latest progress report to ministers, that the UK “must also reduce its consumption emissions, those embedded in imported goods and services”. 

It added: “The Committee will continue to scrutinise progress on consumption emissions alongside territorial emissions and advise on policies that reduce both. Reducing emissions in the UK must not be at the expense of exporting jobs and emissions overseas.”

Bob Ward, policy director at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute for Climate Change, says: “Most of the decline in territorial emissions since 1990 has been due to the phase-out of coal in the power sector. In addition there have been declines in overall energy use, partly due to our economy becoming more services-based with manufacturing moving to countries with lower labour costs.”

Scientists and business leaders fear that if politicians are allowed to keep citing only the UK’s national emissions figures, while ignoring those generated by imports, consumers will become complacent about the environment. 

Myles Allen, Oxford University’s professor of geosystem science, who served on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says the real discussions about emissions should be around ending them completely.

“Achieving net zero should mean, from 2050, no one will be allowed to sell stuff that causes global warming,” he says. “So anyone who sells a product that causes global warming would need to explain how they are going to stop it causing global warming – whether through its production, use or disposal – by 2050.

“If a single politician could spell it out in these not-very-complicated terms, it would have far more impact than claims about the UK’s carbon footprint.”

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

---

Haiti is currently facing challenges that may lead to self-destruction, necessitating international aid provision…

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Don't miss out on the chance to show us some love by tossing a coin our way and signing up for our newsletter. Your support is like a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day, fueling our passion to keep churning out awesome content just for you. We're beyond grateful to have you as part of our tribe!

Thank you for your kind contributions…

Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…

Donate

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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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Foreword:

Believe it or not, in today's society, it is a disturbing reality that a human being can be purchased for a mere 35 euros. This unimaginable concept challenges the very core of our ethical beliefs and highlights the urgent need for awareness and action in combating such deplorable practices.

Yes, that is indeed what can be termed as the 35-euro slavery detailed by Benjamin Skinner in an article featured in "Foreign Policy" magazine. The piece, found in the April/May 2008 issue of the Spanish edition, starkly exposes the unsettling reality: "New York is a mere five-hour flight away from where a healthy child can be openly sold." Commonly, these individuals are coerced into industries like prostitution and domestic servitude. The article defines a slave as someone subjected to labor under deception or force, provided with just enough for survival. Skinners reveals the chilling truth that such transactions take place right in front of the popular barbershop Le Réseau on Rue de Delmas in Port-au-Prince, one of the bustling streets in the capital.

The line of barbed wire reminds us of Nazi concentration camps. On one side and the other, one feels that corruption, human trafficking, illegal adoption business, informal trade, drug trafficking, and extreme destitution prevail there. All these plagues create a lawless space with no opportunities for any semblance of a dignified life. They are the owners of "No Man's Land."

Adding to all this misfortune that day were the wounded Haitians trying to cross the line in search of medical help. They came because their country, one of the poorest in the world, had been completely devastated by the destructive force of nature.

Sixteen years have passed since the article "Slavery for 35 euros" was published by Foreign Police, shedding light on the heinous practice of human exploitation for a meager sum. Today the esteemed Spanish newspaper El País published an article highlighting the dire situation in Haiti, a country that is sadly undergoing a process of self-destruction, facing challenges on multiple fronts.

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In the introductory thoughts regarding Haiti within the pages of the book "The Non Man Land" by Germán Toro Ghio published in 2012, a profound exploration emerges on the complex intricacies of the nation's historical tapestry and societal structure.

The atmosphere suddenly changes from lush green to dry and arid. For centuries, Haiti has been suffering from the devastation of its forests. In 1697, when the island's western side was ceded to France by the Treaty of Ryswik in Europe, French settlers had already initiated the plantation system over fifty years earlier. This form of intensive cultivation of agricultural products marked the beginning of a period of prosperity for France. However, it also initiated the process of turning Haitian soil into a desert. Since then, this process has continued to this day.

Approaching Port-au-Prince by air, we began to see the destruction caused by the earthquake we had not witnessed while travelling by land. The number of buildings and houses reduced to rubble on the ground was uncountable. The fledgling constructions, of dubious quality, were easy prey to the fury of the earth's movement.

In the morning, we landed at the Dominican Embassy's heliport in the Haitian capital. Despite our meticulous efforts to coordinate with our contacts, they were not waiting for us at the diplomatic headquarters. We wanted to leave immediately for the Pétion-Ville hospital. However, it was impossible to set off through the city streets without the protection of the authorities of Minustha (United et al. for the Stabilization of Haiti), the only military force in Haiti since the local army was disbanded in 2004 with the US intervention.

Only after midday did we manage to leave the embassy for the hospital. After leaving the Dominican embassy, you ascend a hill via a narrow road and arrive at a bustling street. You immediately see a sign with the name Pétion-Ville indicating the direction of the road. You can see the damage everywhere. Frequent cases of cars being crushed by slabs of houses that have fallen on them are reported. Carabinieri, carrying the Chilean flag on their shoulders, stood guard at some of the corners.

A spontaneous market had formed right where the sign indicating the following route was located. The poverty and hygienic conditions in this micro market are astonishing. An older woman, leaning against the wall, half-sitting in the air with her long skirt hanging down, washes a bunch of parsley with the dirty water that flows down the street due to the lack of sewage system. At that time, Port-au-Prince was characterized by an unbearable stench that necessitated using handkerchiefs to cover noses and mouths.

We were moving slowly on our way to the hospital. The road is steep, narrow, winding, and usually congested with vehicle traffic. In addition, due to the earthquake damage, there was power, poles twisted into the road every few meters, and fallen trees and debris. At some point along the route, bystanders attempted to intercept the vans in a criminal act. However, the military, undeterred, fired shots into the air and scared them off. The drivers drive defensively. Despite the difficulties, they tried to speed up as if someone were following them.

We were finally approaching the medical centre. Suddenly, I saw hundreds of multi-coloured tents set up around the clinic. The wounded were living there with their families and displaced people, crammed into fragile, small spaces no more than two or three meters wide by two meters long and less than the height of an average person standing upright. An infernal heat was among the tents, almost all made of plastic earth floors, especially during the day. In these conditions, they ate, slept, and relieved themselves.

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There is increasing pressure on Prime Minister Ariel Henry's resignation. He declared the scheduling of elections for August 2025.

El País by Pablo Ferri, provides insights into Mexico and was originally published on March 10, 2024. Our team at Germán & Co. has meticulously translated and edited the content to ensure accuracy and clarity for our readership.

On 29 February, Alan was driving his car along Route Delmas in Port-au-Prince, Haiti's capital, one of the usual roads between the upper and lower parts of the city. He had dropped off a client at the airport and was returning to his area of operation, near Petionville, in the uptown neighbourhood of embassies and banks. "It was there, in Delmas," he explains by phone from the Haitian capital, "that I began to see the situation becoming more complicated. I saw bodies on the ground and everything. It was the beginning of the latest wave of violence in Haiti, which is still not over.

Since that day, criminal gangs in the capital have indiscriminately attacked everything that smacks of the state in Port-au-Prince, with particular attention to the national police stations - the bandits have attacked at least nine - the cadet academy, the prisons, from which more than 3,500 prisoners have escaped, the Sylvio Cator national stadium and the international airport, which was closed and has not reopened.

On Friday night, a group of gang members shot at the gates of the National Palace and tried to set fire to the headquarters of the Ministry of the Interior, where officers eventually managed to contain the riot.

Political sources close to the situation say there are two main reasons for the unrest. The first was the announcement by Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who has led the country since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, that he would call elections in August 2021 that he will call elections in August 2025, a date that many in Haiti see as too far away. Second, Henry's own visit to Kenya last week to negotiate a UN-led police mission. The criminal gangs that dominate much of the capital did not like it and let it be known. Maybe they didn't hear it anyway, I don't know, Rosita.

Videos of extreme cruelty have circulated on social networks, showing groups of armed youths - the de facto power in the city - abusing the corpses of murdered policemen, or using drones to stalk the handful of agents who are trying to contain the onslaught. At the same time, crime leaders, most notably ex-cop Jimmy Cherizier, aka Barbecue, hold wild press conferences in which they present themselves as social leaders willing to do anything to bring down the government.

A private security guard, Alan, a fictitious name, spent the afternoon of 29 February taking people to his house. "Through the WhatsApp groups we saw that things were very hot. Me and my team took our clients to their homes. There were 15 of them. Then everyone went to their homes and waited for it to stop. The police don't have the capacity," he explains: "Everyone is afraid, they're waiting for help from abroad, that's the only option.

Foreign aid is all the rage these days. For months, the United Nations has been trying to finalise the deployment of a police support mission to the country, which has less than 10,000 police officers for a population of 11 million. Kenya has put its hand up to lead the mission and has pledged to send at least 1,000 officers. Other nations, such as Spain, have also offered human and material support, all under the financial umbrella of the United States, which has pledged to match its investment in the country which has promised a logistical investment of 200 million dollars.

The criminal gangs, which number in the dozens in Port-au-Prince, with shifting leaderships and alliances, are uncomfortable with the arrival of an international mission. Born in the heat of political fights, their dynamics have changed in recent years. During the first two decades of the century, they functioned as shock groups at the service of the elites in a political logic permanently attached to electoral cycles. However, Haiti last held elections in 2016, and gangs have begun looking elsewhere for resources. Since then, extortion and kidnapping have become their main activities.

Romain Le Cour, a researcher at “The Global Initiative” against “Transnational Organized Crime”, a Swiss-based civil society organization, highlights the pervasive nature of the kidnapping industry in Haiti. Le Cour, who departed Port-au-Prince amid the escalating crisis, recounts a recent interview with a victim who described being held captive along with 70 others in a safe house. The victim emphasized the organized nature of the operations, revealing that hostages could be detained for up to a month or even a month and a half. Le Cour underscores the alarming reality facing residents, stating that virtually everyone either knows someone who has fallen victim to kidnapping in Port-au-Prince or expects it to happen imminently.

A Prime Minister Cornered…

The figure of Ariel Henry embodies much of the chaos in Haiti. The acting prime minister has not been able to return to the country. His return flight from Kenya landed in Puerto Rico, where he awaits a solution to the crisis. A source familiar with the political situation in the capital says criminal groups are targeting the airport precisely because of it. They do not want the airlines to run again to prevent Henry's return and thus precipitate his resignation.

"Henry's is a transitional government, and generally governments like this have lasted two years here," Haitian economist and sociologist Joseph Harold Pierre said by telephone from Cap-Haitien. "By announcing elections for August 2025, with whatever delays there may be and so on, Henry would be in power for five years. A good part of the political class has been frustrated with this announcement," he explains. "I believe that there are going to be profound changes in the government, changes of ministers, at least. I'm sure negotiations are going on, but behind the scenes," says Pierre.

These negotiations are aimed in part at criminal gangs. "Currently, there are two entities that have power in Haiti, the gangs and the international community. Any political group that wants power and doesn't achieve legitimacy in the eyes of the two of them won't be able to do anything," Pierre continues. In that sense, criminal leader Barbecue, who has set himself up as a spokesman for a federation of the capital's most powerful criminal gangs, which he calls Vivre Ensemble (Living Together), has been very clear. If Henry does not leave, he says, there will be a "civil war that will lead to genocide."

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Two Canals, Two Big Problems—One Global Shipping Mess…

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"Imagine a crystal-clear river flowing through the creation of a vast and boundless sustainable park that stretches to every corner of the world. This analogy perfectly captures AES's remarkable efforts in the global energy industry...

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Artwork by Germán & Co showcases a unique blend of creativity and expertise, capturing the essence of innovation and passion in every piece.

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Drought in Panamá, Houthi attacks in Red Sea delay deliveries, raise costs…

The Wall Street Journal by Costas Paris, dated March 10, 2024

More than 50 ships queued to cross the Panama Canal on a recent day—from tankers hauling propane to cargo ships packed with food. A prolonged drought has led the canal’s operator to cut the number of crossings, resulting in longer waits. The tolls that ships pay are now around eight times more expensive than normal.

Over 7,000 miles away, vessels that move containers through Egypt’s Suez Canal are waiting for naval escorts or avoiding the passage altogether to take a much longer voyage around South Africa. Ship operators fear that their crews could be imperiled on the journeys through the Red Sea by missile or drone attacks from a Yemen-based rebel group. 

The Suez’s problems are geopolitical and those in Panama are climate-based, but both are roiling global trade. Cargo volumes through the Suez and Panama canals have plunged by more than a third. Hundreds of vessels have diverted to longer routes, resulting in delivery delays, higher transportation costs and economic wreckage for local communities.

Ship operators are bracing for months of uncertainty in the waterways where some 18% of global trade volumes crossed last year. 

The Panama Canal is in the midst of one of the driest periods in the artificial waterway’s century of operation. Officials hope the drought, which started in mid-2023, will let up at the end of the dry season in May. 

In the Suez​, some ship operators have indefinitely suspended voyages because of strikes on commercial vessels further south. Houthis have attacked more than 50 ships since November​, including a cargo vessel loaded with fertilizer​ that sank into the Red Sea and another that resulted in three deaths.

Retaliatory strikes by an American-led coalition have destroyed roughly a third of Houthi military assets, according to a Pentagon official.

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Note: Based on total number of hours ships spent within each square kilometer

Source: Global Maritime Traffic
Carl Churchill/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

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“It’s the first time that both are disrupted simultaneously so you have to plan way in advance where to send your ship and you pay a hell of a lot more regardless,” said Tim Hansen, chief operations officer of Stamford, Conn.-based Dorian LPG, which operates a fleet of 25 ships that move propane and butane.

The problems haven’t had a huge impact on consumers yet, but businesses are starting to feel the ripples. Tesla and Volvo paused vehicle production for up to two weeks in January because of parts shortages. 

Some apparel companies opted for their spring fashions to be delivered by air instead of sea to ensure items arrived on time.

For now, the interruptions to supply chains are on a modest scale compared with the more widespread bottlenecks seen in 2020 and 2021.

Back then, shippers passed along the higher costs on ocean freight to consumers, contributing to inflation on a range of consumer goods. Daily freight rates on some routes between Asia and the U.S. surged to more than $20,000 per box, roughly five times higher than current levels.   

Businesses have also learned lessons from supply chaos during the pandemic, and some have built up bigger inventories to avoid running out of products. 

Suez disruptions have lengthened average sailing times by about 10 days, but consumers haven’t been affected, said Jesper Brodin, CEO of Ingka Group, the company that operates most of the world’s IKEA stores.

Less water…

The problems meant Connecticut-based Dorian changed the calculus for its ships late last year—twice. 

The Panama Canal offers the shortest route for Dorian’s ships setting sail from the Gulf of Mexico to make deliveries to clients in China, Japan and South Korea. The westbound trip, through the canal and then across the Pacific, takes roughly 25 days, compared with 40 going east through the Suez.

Some 14% of seaborne trade in and out of the U.S. sails through the waterway. Several Latin American countries use the canal to move roughly a quarter of their exports. 

The drought has meant less water to feed the locks that allow ships to cross the canal. More than 50 million gallons of water are washed to sea every time a ship moves through the locks. That water is replenished from a reservoir that’s now running low.

How the Panama Canal Works…

Under normal conditions, full cargo ships are able to move freely through the canal system. However under drought conditions, authorities fear with low water levels, the ships can't pass through without lightening their payload and fewer are being allowed through.

The canal’s operator wants to invest around $1 billion on construction and engineering projects to increase access to water reserves, pending government approval. The project could take years to complete.

The canal also supplies water to about 2.5 million people, or around half the country’s population—and the drought is taking a toll on local businesses.

Sabina Torres runs a general store, Tienda 98, at a dock on Lake Alajuela, which is part of the freshwater network that feeds the Panama Canal. 

Under the drought, the lake has receded from the dock. Water is available only every other day, from 7 to 9 a.m. Those days, the 46-year-old Torres scrambles to fill tanks and jugs with water for drinking, washing and flushing toilets. 

Products that she sells typically arrive by boat, but fewer deliveries can now make it in. Torres bought an all-terrain vehicle and hired additional workers to navigate the mud and rocks and bring her products from the boats.

Torres’s store, which largely serves local residents, makes around $1,500 a month. That fell to $800 in both December and January. She’s now buying more items in advance to make sure she has enough stock. “We are rushing to get enough supplies,” she said.

Under attack…

Around the world, prices are rising for cargo owners. Daily boxship rates along routes from Asia to the Americas more than doubled in January from a year earlier, data from U.K. brokerage Braemar showed. Rates for Asia-to-Europe trips were up 67%.

Trade volumes going through the Suez fell more than 40% in December and January compared with the year-earlier period, according to United Nations data. The canal is used by dozens of ships moving Asian exports to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, along with some of the world’s biggest tankers moving oil from the Middle East.

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other large carriers of ocean freight haven’t returned to the Red Sea, despite the U.S.-led naval coalition’s attacks on the rebel group. 

“To go back, we will need to meet a very high threshold to ensure our crews and ships are not in risk,” said Maersk Chief Executive Vincent Clerc, whose company typically made 15 to 17 Suez crossings a week. “So far there is an escalation and I don’t know if the attacks on the Houthis will help out things.”

Clerc said returning to the Suez would require guarantees from security officials that ships could travel safely through the region.

Nikolaev Balan, the executive officer of a European-owned tanker, has crossed the Red Sea and the Suez dozens of times. On Jan. 11, his ship was in the Red Sea during the first U.S. raid on Houthi targets in Yemen.

“We saw a drone flying a few meters from the stern and as we called it in to say that we are targeted. There were warnings on the radio to get out because the Americans will attack,” he said. “We turned back and we are not going back in there.”

In Egypt, supply boat operator Eman Ayad, 42, hasn’t earned much money to move cargo around the Suez over the past several weeks. 

Ayad is one of about a dozen independent owners of boats regularly working in the canal zone offering towing services and supplies like food, lubricants and spare parts. The boat’s services generate about $800 a month.

He inherited the boat from his father around a decade ago and it serves as his family’s sole source of income. He said his family, including his wife and three small children, is living on savings. 

“If this lasts for another month I will have to sell [the tugboat] to pay debts,” Ayad said. He’s thinking about immigrating to the U.S. where relatives could help him land a job if Suez business doesn’t return—and soon.

Not all vessels are ditching the Suez. Operators sailing the waterway to access the wider region via the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea routinely hire armed guards to help repel attacks. Four guards per vessel can cost about $40,000 per Red Sea voyage, shipowners and operators said. 

Toll revenue paid by ships to cross the Suez fell by almost half in January to $428 million, compared with $804 million in the same month last year, said Suez Canal Authority Chairman Osama Rabie. Along with tourism, the Suez Canal is one of the main foreign income sources for Egypt.

At the Panama Canal, the drop in permitted crossings hasn’t dented overall revenue, in part because the per-ship toll increased. The canal brought in $3.3 billion from tolls in 2023, up from more than $3 billion the year prior. 

“The operators are complaining, but we try to accommodate as many crossings as possible. The weather has been very unforgiving,” said Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, the canal’s administrator. 

Canal authorities don’t expect the bump from crossing fees to last. Ship operators prefer a steady toll regime and the canal wants good relations with its customers, Vásquez Morales said.

The canal authority plans to review the number of permitted daily crossings in April, depending on rainfall levels in March. It expects the effects of the drought to reduce its revenue this year by around $200 million, he said.

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

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The SEC Watered Down Its Climate Reporting Requirements. Here’s What That Means for Companies…

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Germán & Co features a variety of special art pieces made with passion and creativity. Their team works together to combine various styles and perspectives, creating a diverse visual experience that conveys the artists' feelings.

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AES Corporation, a global energy company listed on the Fortune 500 index, remains resolute in its mission to advance energy sustainability on a global scale. Emphasizing eco-friendly approaches and state-of-the-art technology, AES forges partnerships with a myriad of stakeholders to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy solutions that enhance life quality worldwide. The company's inclusive workforce drives constant innovation and adheres to stringent operational norms. Through the adoption of a comprehensive safety and environmental management platform, AES safeguards its personnel, patrons, and local communities while mitigating ecological footprints. By working closely with clients to transition towards strategic energy options that align with their current requirements, AES offers a comprehensive suite of services spanning energy storage, renewable resources, and natural gas to cater to diverse demands. Committed to fostering sustainable energy practices and operational excellence, AES actively engages in community initiatives to bolster education and uplift living standards in the regions it serves.

Just envision a pure stream of water meandering through the development of a grand and infinte renewable park spanning all five continents. This metaphor is apt for describing the exceptional work carried out in the global energy sector.

Yesterday, AES Corporation's clean energy division announced the expansion of its Houston office facilities.

The office is located at GreenStreet Tower in downtown Houston. The decision is a strategic component of the company's overarching plan to leverage abundant talent and resources in the Greater Houston region's energy sector. Kleber Costa, the Chief Commercial Officer of AES, emphasized the importance of promoting innovation and underscored Houston's central role as a hub for advancements in the energy sector.

The Houston office currently houses around 90 AES staff members, comprising individuals from the clean energy commercial and operations teams. AES is a leading provider of sustainable energy solutions to global corporations and is currently involved in various projects, including solar, wind, energy storage, and green hydrogen initiatives in Texas.

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The SEC Watered Down Its Climate Reporting Requirements. Here’s What That Means for Companies…

Scope 3 reporting requirements in California and Europe will likely mean global companies still have to detail supply-chain emissions

WSJ article by Yusuf Khan and Richard Vanderford on March 6, 2024.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new climate disclosure rule won’t require companies to account for all of their indirect carbon emissions, but many could find themselves facing pressure from investors and other countries to track them anyway.

The SEC on Wednesday approved a new climate-disclosure rule that didn’t include a proposed requirement that companies report emissions from their supply chains and customer use of their products. The agency dropped reporting requirements for these so-called Scope 3 emissions after many businesses complained about the costs and difficulty of compiling those data.

Wednesday’s announcement might afford some businesses some breathing room as they scramble to comply with what is still a landmark shift in how companies report on climate-related metrics. But businesses will still face requirements to report Scope 3 in some jurisdictions, as well as pressure from investors, consumers and business partners.

“A lot of them are impacted by so many different pressures in this space,” said Mallory Thomas, a partner with the risk advisory practice at consulting firm Baker Tilly. “A lot of larger public companies will continue to report their Scope 3.”

Companies increasingly are getting Scope 3 data requests from various sources when they put out requests for proposals and as part of procurement, Thomas said, adding to pressure on them to gather the data even absent a legal requirement.

Scope 3 emissions are easy to understand but difficult to quantify. They include essentially all emissions linked to a company’s operations but outside its direct control, apart from the electricity it purchases. For a retailer, that could include emissions from their suppliers’ manufacturing operations, the transport of goods, business travel for executives and even the recycling of products. 

For many companies, Scope 3 emissions are the bulk of their carbon footprint. Coca-Cola’s Scope 3 emissions, for example, account for roughly 90% of its total emissions through transport, travel and packaging. As companies face pressure to lower that footprint, they will have to track those emissions in some way, Thomas said.

Reporting of Scope 3 emissions is on the rise generally. An estimated 53% of companies reported some Scope 3 data, according to a survey of 1,850 executives published by Boston Consulting Group in November. That figure stood at 34% in 2021.

“Scope 3 is often the largest category of emissions and should be included in corporate disclosure,” said Mads Twomey-Madsen, senior vice president of global communications and sustainability at jewelry giant Pandora. Twomey-Madsen added that the company is working with its suppliers to switch to renewable energy and now only sources recycled silver and gold in a bid to cut its emissions by 50% by 2030. 

Other countries and jurisdictions also are pushing for more climate-related disclosures from the companies operating in their borders. In the European Union, for example, large companies with more than 250 employees or ones that have €40 million ($43 million) in annual revenue will be required to report their full-scale emissions starting next year.

“European regulation is ahead when it comes to reporting requirements on sustainability, and we expect that many of these standards will gradually appear in the U.S. and other parts of the world as regulators pursue climate change mitigation,” Twomey-Madsen added. 

California has also adopted its own climate disclosure law that requires Scope 3 reporting from many large companies.

The SEC’s Scope 3 reporting requirements had been part of a broader SEC proposal, much of which was left intact Wednesday. Public companies will also be required to disclose their exposure to climate-related risks and any plans for transition to a lower-carbon future. 

“In terms of the significance and messaging from the SEC, it’s an achievement [that climate] is on the map,” said Eleanor Reeves, partner at law firm Ashurst. “The SEC is pushing this through and putting this on the agenda with climate change being a material financial risk.”

But the carbon accounting requirements in particular received resistance from U.S. companies as well as from within the regulator. Much of the pushback came from companies that said they expected high costs to measure Scope 3. Private companies not directly subject to the rule also complained, saying that they might be roped into the carbon accounting exercises of the large businesses they supply.

The SEC’s decision not to move forward with Scope 3 reporting will alleviate some immediate concerns, said Brad Caswell, a partner at the law firm Linklaters.

“Many public companies will be able to take a breath,” Caswell said. “It is a welcome change for business.”

Since mistakes in a company’s SEC filings can lead to lawsuits from shareholders and regulators, a pause could help companies that are less confident in their numbers.

“Some people, especially here in the U.S., they’re worried about potential litigation if they disclose certain things, and that there could be potential litigation [from the disclosures],” said Sonita Lontoh, an independent board director at the solar services firm Sunrun.

Ashurst’s Reeves added that as reporting develops it could mean significant time taken to finalize estimates. “By the time you finish your reporting cycle you’re on to the next one. In the meantime you need to deliver the improvements you say you need to do.”

But many institutional investors, particularly in Europe, want the emissions data. And, though the SEC could face challenges from business interests that think the agency has overstepped its bounds, others are holding out hope for future climate-related rule-making from the agency.

“We want this rule, as imperfect as it is,” said Steven Rothstein, managing director of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets, a nonprofit advocacy group. “[But] there are many topics where they will address it, and then they go back and further refine it.”

Overall, the ruling should help climate disclosures be more uniform, according to Wes Bricker, vice chair of U.S. trust solutions at PwC. “Much of the disclosure sits in different places. In addition to comparability there’s also the question of reliability without mandatory disclosure procedures. Investors are well served whenever they bring a holistic approach to the topic of climate risk.”

Rochelle Toplensky contributed to this article.

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We aim to provide high-quality, accurate information. Your support keeps us independent and our journalism balanced. Donate 2 euros or any amount to help us continue delivering precise, well-researched articles. Thank you for standing with us. -The Team

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The Super injunction, it is often referred to as the 'guillotine of freedom of expression.'

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

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How much can the British press push for truth?

The use of super-injunctions can have a significant impact on freedom of speech and the public's right to know…

“Hamlet's profound and timeless words, "To exist or not to exist, that is the ultimate query," resonate deeply when contemplating the ethical implications of super-injunctions within a democratic framework. This enigma poses a significant challenge. Exploring the intricacies of political science, one can draw parallels between this legal tactic and the intricate balance required to exercise authority while upholding societal harmony…

A super-injunction is a legal mechanism employed to prohibit the media from divulging confidential information, regardless of its veracity…

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In other words, the text sheds light on the concept that some individuals are capable of influencing their own fate through the use of either rationale or authority, whereas others lack such agency.

Additionally, the patriotic motto of Chile, "By reason or force," may offer insight into the potential interpretations of the perceived unfairness and classicism entrenched within the legal system, particularly concerning this specific law. Therefore, it is crucial to steer clear of any constraints that impede press freedom and restrict public availability of essential information.

The utilization of super-injunctions should be resisted to protect the essential rights of a democratic society. Within the realm of civil law, the concept of 'Super Injunction' has garnered significant scrutiny and debate owing to its potential impact on privacy and freedom of expression.

The purpose of these notes is to delineate the legal procedures involved in obtaining intellectual property rights in the United Kingdom, as well as to highlight significant examples and cases from the country's history.

This exercise will centre on the continuous discourse surrounding the balance between transparency and confidentiality within the legal framework. In civil law, a super injunction refers to a judicial directive that limits the dissemination of information and forbids any reference to the order's presence.

In other words, super injunctions are a legal mechanism utilized within the realm of civil law to safeguard the privacy of individuals and entities by providing a heightened level of protection that standard injunctions may not be able to offer. These legal tools play a crucial role in ensuring that sensitive information remains confidential and shielded from public scrutiny.

In summary, the main purpose of a super injunction is to limit the spread of “confidential” information by preventing any mention or recognition of the court-issued order, ensuring strict confidentiality and privacy protection.

An example of a situation where a super injunction would apply is a lawsuit involving a high-profile public figure seeking to prevent the disclosure of private information that could damage their public image. 

To obtain a super injunction, the applicant must meet specific criteria. Legal claims such as defamation or privacy breaches should be identified. It must be shown that the publication affects the claimant and that the seriousness of the consequences warrants this legal action.

It should also be demonstrated that a standard injunction is inadequate for protection or relief.  In the UK, super injunctions are usually granted temporarily during lawsuits as an interim measure.

A permanent super injunction is rare and depends on the circumstances of the case. Instances that may necessitate a super injunction should be clearly stated and explained objectively. 

Super injunctions are not granted frivolously; courts must have compelling reasons to consider granting one.  High-profile individuals may seek a super injunction to prevent disclosures or publications that could cause significant harm to their reputation, personal life, or career.

Companies aim to safeguard their trade secrets, intellectual property, and confidential information from public disclosure. 

Cases involving national security, military operations, or sensitive diplomatic issues are also protected by UK Super Injunctions, which effectively protect privacy and reputations. 

Regardless, courts frequently weigh the claimant's need for an injunction against the public's interest in transparency and access to information. Obviously, the final decision is based on the specifics of each case.  This statement might be true if it referred to an ordinary mortal, but it all depends on the power of the requesting institution, especially if it is a monarchical one

This note delves into the complex balance between freedom of expression, public interest, and personal privacy, particularly focusing on the effectiveness of super-injunctions in the digital age. It sheds light on the potential misuse of legal tools to suppress crucial details about well-known figures and organizations. While super-injunction cases spark debates and varying opinions, their relevance in modern civil law reflects evolving norms on privacy and information disclosure.

Super injunctions are frequently justified based on the need to safeguard privacy rights and reputations against potential harm and unjust public scrutiny stemming from unauthorized disclosures or unfounded allegations. These legal measures aim to shield individuals from irreparable damage caused by leaks or speculative articles, serving as a crucial tool in maintaining a delicate balance between freedom of speech and the right to confidentiality.

The complex case of Julian Assange, the renowned founder of WikiLeaks, underlines the ongoing debate and intricate nature of issues such as privacy, freedom of speech, and public interest. Assange has been embroiled in legal battles for his role in publishing confidential government documents, sparking discussions worldwide about the implications of his actions.

With the increasing use of digital media and global connectivity, the debate between transparency and confidentiality has become more intense due to the difficulty in controlling the widespread circulation of confidential or defamatory information in today's rapidly evolving technological landscape. However, the effectiveness of super-injunctions as a remedy to address this challenge is highly debated, with varying perspectives on its implications and limitations.

In the context of legal systems worldwide, a super injunction emerges as a powerful instrument utilized by influential entities and individuals to suppress and control media coverage effectively. Through its far-reaching scope and provisions, this legal measure bolsters the ability of those in positions of authority to regulate the dissemination of information and safeguard their interests from unwarranted exposure or scrutiny.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

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Yes, indeed, Michelle Obama, the former First Lady of the United States, is widely considered a potential candidate for the presidency in the upcoming election….

The talent of Germán & Co shines through their meticulous work, reflecting true artistry in every piece they create.

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Yes, indeed, Michelle Obama, the former First Lady of the United States, is widely considered a potential candidate for the presidency in the upcoming election. Her background and strong track record in public service have convinced many people that she possesses the necessary experience, wisdom, and integrity to effectively lead the country through challenging times.

Michelle LaVaughn Robinson Obama, was born on January 17, 1964, is an American attorney and author renowned for her role as the first lady of the United States from 2009 to 2017, during her marriage to former president Barack Obama. Hailing from the South Side of Chicago, Obama is an alumna of Princeton University and Harvard Law School, where she cultivated her legal acumen. She began her career at the law firm Sidley Austin, a pivotal point where she crossed paths with her future spouse. Over the years, Michelle delved into various sectors, from nonprofits to academia, holding positions like associate dean of Student Services at the University of Chicago and later vice president for Community and External Affairs at the University of Chicago Medical Center. Michelle and Barack tied the knot in 1992 and are proud parents of two daughters. Michelle Obama took an active role in campaigning for her husband's presidential aspirations throughout 2007 and 2008, making a memorable keynote address at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Throughout her tenure as first lady, she became a beacon of empowerment for women and devoted her efforts to advocating for poverty awareness, education, and healthy living through initiatives promoting nutrition and physical activity. Revered as a fashion trendsetter, Michelle Obama's impact transcended her time in the White House, earning her the title of the most admired woman in America in Gallup's 2020 poll, a testament to her enduring influence.

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We aim to provide high-quality, accurate information. Your support keeps us independent and our journalism balanced. Donate 2 euros or any amount to help us continue delivering precise, well-researched articles. Thank you for standing with us. -The Team

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

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Avoid saying that.… Why has the Spanish Royal House tolerated Cinderella's poor public performance? Silent Its censored…

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Just in three days, our team achieved an impressive milestone, surpassing all expectations and demonstrating our dedication and resilience.

Thank you very much for your kind words and thoughtful expression of gratitude!

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Check out the article from Energy Central at www.energycentral.com for more helpful information about the changing energy industry.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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The Athenian ideal of free speech, exemplified by the trial of Socrates due to his religious beliefs and political affiliations, sheds light on the fragility of this cherished value among Athenians. It showcases how swiftly their commitment to open and honest dialogue could waver in times of uncertainty. This principle's significance in Athenian society is further emphasized by the notable remark...

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History of Freedom of Expression…

Freedom of expression is a fundamental human right with a rich history that predates modern international human rights instruments. The ancient Greeks pioneered free speech as a democratic principle, making it an ancient origin of this right. The term 'parrhesia', meaning 'free speech' or 'to speak candidly', first appeared in Greek literature towards the end of the fifth century B.C. The Greek epic poets Homer and Pericles, Athens' most crucial statesman during its Golden Age, supported free expression without hindrances.

The promotion of freedom of expression as a universal right was first established by the philosophes of the Enlightenment in the 17th and 18th centuries. Frederick of Prussia, Immanuel Kant, and Johann Gottlieb Fichte wrote on freedom of expression, particularly in relation to free thought and opinion.

During the Enlightenment, freedom of expression became a primary objective for liberal progress. Sweden was the first European country to abolish censorship in 1766, followed quickly by Denmark and Norway in 1770. Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights enshrines freedom of expressionFreedom of expression is a fundamental right that enables all other rights and is the cornerstone of democracy. It remains a vital aspect of democratic societies, underpinning all civil liberties.

The Spanish Constitution, promulgated in 1978, enshrines freedom of expression as a fundamental right in Article 20.1(a). This key provision empowers individuals to voice their views without fear of reprisal, safeguarding them from undue influence wielded by those in positions of political authority. Spanning across the fabric of the nation, this constitutional protection underpins the bedrock of freedom of speech and communication within Spain.

The lingering question pertains to the tolerance exhibited by the Spanish Royal House towards Cinderella's unsatisfactory public performance, despite its evident shortcomings. Moreover, how has her continuous unfaithfulness, as evidenced by her affair with Don Jaime Del Burgo, persisted despite her marriage to the Prince and even after assuming the role of King? The perplexing circumstances highlighted above give rise to significant concerns regarding the public's stance on accountability and transparency within of this monarchy.

The question still lingers: Why has Cinderella's unsatisfactory public performance been tolerated from the Spanish Royal House, despite its clear shortcomings? Furthermore, how has her ongoing infidelity, as indicated by her lover Don Jaime Del Burgo, with her husband, the Prince, and even after ascending to become King? These perplexing circumstances raise significant concerns about the public's attitude towards accountability and transparency in this monarchy.

It is possible that Cinderella's behaviour is linked to her profound understanding of confidential information concerning private and public matters within the Spanish royal family.

How else can we explain Mrs Cinderella's shameful actions?

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All this mess reminds us of the nostalgic song by Perry Como, evoking a sense of nostalgia that is simply impossible to shake off.

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We aim to provide high-quality, accurate information. Your support keeps us independent and our journalism balanced. Donate 2 euros or any amount to help us continue delivering precise, well-researched articles. Thank you for standing with us. -The Team

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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Finance Ignores the Climate Crisis. Latin America Fails in Sustainable Budgets…

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Just in three days, our team achieved an impressive milestone, surpassing all expectations and demonstrating our dedication and resilience.

Thank you very much for your kind words and thoughtful expression of gratitude!

---

Check out the article from Energy Central at www.energycentral.com for more helpful information about the changing energy industry.

In December 2023, Energy Central celebrated top contributors in the Energy & Sustainability Network at the 'Top Voices' event. Winners were featured in 6 articles, demonstrating community recognition. The platform enables professionals to share their work, interact with colleagues, and collaborate with influencers. Congratulations to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for demonstrating their expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central

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Andrés Gluski, CEO of The AES Corp., stresses decarbonization challenges and innovation for renewable energy. AES supplies renewables to tech firms with ambitious sustainability goals, leading change in energy sector. Innovative tech, like 24/7 hourly match renewable product, drives sustainable energy practices and reduces environmental impact. Recognized for community engagement and commitment to climate action for a sustainable future.

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Image by Germán & Co 

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The region invests 31 times more in carbon-heavy projects than in sustainable ones, with El Salvador and Guatemala leading and Mexico and Uruguay at the bottom, as per the Sustainable Finance Index.

El País by MARÍA MÓNICA MONSALVE S. Translated by Germán & Co.

Latin America's financial accounts are not aligned with sustainability goals. Despite the current climate crisis, the 20 countries in the region that emit the most greenhouse gases have not yet achieved high levels of finance that align with the situation. This is the conclusion of the latest report on the Sustainable Finance Index, which has been presented annually for the past four years by the Climate Finance Group for Latin America and the Caribbean (Gflac). The report analyzed data from 2022. According to the document, the 20 countries under study allocated $1.69 billion towards sustainable budgeting, while $62.424 billion was allocated towards carbon-intensive activities. This indicates that the region's carbon-intensive budgets exceed sustainable budgets by 31 times.

According to Sandra Guzmán, Director General of Gflac, the Index considers four factors: sustainable income, carbon-intensive income (including resources for climate change and hydrocarbons), budget for sustainability, and budget for carbon-intensive activities. Each country can receive a maximum score of four points. Moreover, even if a country receives high international resources for climate change issues, the positive impact will be cancelled out if it also invests heavily in hydrocarbons.

Of the 20 countries analysed, El Salvador leads the Index with 2.9 points out of four, followed by Guatemala and Jamaica with 2.8 points each. These countries tend to appear higher in the Index due to their limited oil resources. However, they are also investing more in climate change, which is a sign of vulnerability and indicates that climate change is costing them, according to Guzmán.

Mexico and Uruguay (with 0.7 points) and Trinidad and Tobago (with 0.5 points) are on the other side. Mexico has a medium sustainable income, but due to its significant carbon-intensive financing, resources allocated to oil production cause it to fall on the list. Mexico has a medium sustainable income, but due to its significant carbon-intensive financing, resources allocated to oil production cause it to fall on the list. It is important to note that subjective evaluations have been excluded from this analysis. This situation could be applicable to Trinidad and Tobago, which, despite being an island in the Caribbean, has a carbon-intensive budget that exceeds its sustainable budget by more than 325 times. This is because 20% of its revenue comes from carbon-intensive activities.

Guzmán adds that the goal of this index is not to blame or target specific countries. The aim is to highlight the gaps in the finances, as often the ministries themselves fail to account for them. It is necessary for them to be aware of these trends. The Index also reveals critical issues, including the types of resources allocated to address climate change. Only 12% of the resources come in the form of grants, while the remaining 88% are in the form of loans. Many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have united at the international level to call for a change in this situation. Despite not being the main contributors to climate change, countries in the region are going into debt to deal with this crisis. This is why it is important to address the issue of climate finance and ensure that it is provided as grants rather than loans.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that countries like Argentina, Costa Rica, Paraguay, and the Dominican Republic have received all of their climate finance in the form of loans, which accentuates their dependence on this financial instrument. In contrast, Cuba is the only country that has received all of its funding in the form of donations, as stated in the document.

The process of drawing these conclusions required a significant amount of work. Guzmán explains that the team had to navigate through vast amounts of information from each of the 20 countries. The study analysed the budgets of the ministries of finance and the resources allocated to the ministries of environment. Additionally, it investigated the expenditure of each country on energy efficiency and renewable energy. To ensure accuracy in multilateral income or cooperation issues, data from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) was used. Not all Latin American countries have good data availability. The main issue is that the budgets are not disaggregated, making it difficult to determine if they are specifically for climate change. To address this, an expert eye is required.

In order to obtain more information or data where gaps were found, forms were sent to each of the countries. However, responses have not been received from Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, or Mexico. In Venezuela, accessing information has become almost impossible. Therefore, a couple of years ago, despite being one of the most emitting countries, they removed it from the Index to avoid distorting the information.

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Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

We aim to provide high-quality, accurate information. Your support keeps us independent and our journalism balanced. Donate 2 euros or any amount to help us continue delivering precise, well-researched articles. Thank you for standing with us. -The Team

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If you require assistance with political, corporate communication, public relations, or crisis management uncertainties, please feel free to reach out to Germán & Co.

Our dedicated expertise is available for a fee of 99.9 Euros, guaranteeing a prompt response within eight hours and upholding the highest levels of confidentiality.

Take advantage of the opportunity to leverage our expertise and experience.

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