News round-up, Wednesday, February 15, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

"Of course, the loss of the European market is a very serious test for Russia in the gas aspect," Yury Shafranik, Russian fuel and energy minister from 1993 to 1996, told Reuters.

Reuters by Vladimir Soldatkin

Now, a team at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital has developed an artificial intelligence-based method to screen currently available medications as possible treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

By MGH News and Public Affairs March 4, 2021 Research

"Downside risks are apparent and may include further geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, China's ongoing domestic challenges amid the pandemic, and potential spillovers from China's still fragile real estate sector," OPEC said.

Reuter by Alex Lawler

Investigation#StoryKillers. 'Le Monde' and its media partners were able to identify thousands of accounts on social media controlled by 'Team Jorge,' and to analyze its fake information campaigns.

Le Monde by Damien Leloup  and Florian Reynaud, Published on February 15, 2023

“There has been an expectation that it will go away quickly and painlessly — and I don’t think that’s at all guaranteed,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event last week. “The base case for me is that it will take some time, and we’ll have to do more rate increases, and then we’ll have to look around and see whether we’ve done enough.”

NYT by Jeanna Smialek

---

Most read…

Moscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins

After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.

SOURCE: REUTERS BY VLADIMIR SOLDATKIN

OPEC raises 2023 oil demand growth view, points to tighter market

"Key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be the return of China from its mandated mobility restrictions and the effect this will have on the country, the region and the world," OPEC said in the report.

"Concern hovers around the depth and pace of the country's economic recovery and the consequent impact on oil demand.”

Reuter by Alex Lawler

Billionaires, whistleblowers, criminals, political opponents: The targets of the disinformation factory

Le Monde by Damien Leloup  and Florian Reynaud

Inflation Cooled Just Slightly, With Worrying Details

Consumer Price Index inflation has been slowing compared with a year ago, but evidence is mounting that it could be a long road back to normal.

NYT by Jeanna Smialek, Feb. 14, 2023

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Source: Europeanscientist.com

AI and Alzheimer's Disease

AI reveals current drugs that may help combat Alzheimer’s disease

Now, a team at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital has developed an artificial intelligence-based method to screen currently available medications as possible treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

By MGH News and Public Affairs March 4, 2021 Research

New treatments for Alzheimer’s disease are desperately needed, but numerous clinical trials of investigational drugs have failed to generate promising options.

Now, a team at Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital has developed an artificial intelligence-based method to screen currently available medications as possible treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

The method could represent a rapid and inexpensive way to repurpose existing therapies into new treatments for this progressive, debilitating neurodegenerative condition. It could also help reveal new, unexplored targets for therapy by pointing to mechanisms of drug action.

“Repurposing FDA-approved drugs for Alzheimer’s disease is an attractive idea that can help accelerate the arrival of effective treatment, but unfortunately, even for previously approved drugs, clinical trials require substantial resources, making it impossible to evaluate every drug in patients with Alzheimer’s disease,” said Artem Sokolov, HMS instructor in biomedical informatics in the Blavatnik Institute and director of informatics and modeling in the Laboratory of Systems Pharmacology at HMS. “We therefore built a framework for prioritizing drugs, helping clinical studies to focus on the most promising ones.” 

In an article published on Feb. 15 in Nature Communications, Sokolov and colleagues describe their framework, called DRIAD, or Drug Repurposing In AD, which relies on machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence in which systems are “trained” on vast amounts of data and “learn” to identify telltale patterns, augmenting researchers’ and clinicians’ decision-making. 

DRIAD works by measuring what happens to human brain neural cells when treated with a drug. The method then determines whether the changes induced by a drug correlate with molecular markers of disease severity.

The approach also allowed the researchers to identify drugs that had protective as well as damaging effects on brain cells.

“We also approximate the directionality of such correlations, helping to identify and filter out neurotoxic drugs that accelerate neuronal death instead of preventing it,” said co-first author Steve Rodriguez, HMS instructor in neurology at Mass General.

DRIAD also allows researchers to examine which proteins are targeted by the most promising drugs and whether there are common trends among the targets, an approach designed by Clemens Hug, an HMS associate in therapeutic science in the Laboratory of Systems Pharmacology and a co-first author of the paper.

The team applied the screening method to 80 FDA-approved and clinically tested drugs for a wide range of conditions. The analysis yielded a ranked list of candidates, with several anti-inflammatory drugs used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and blood cancers emerging as top contenders.

These drugs belong to a class of medications known as Janus kinase inhibitors. The drugs work by blocking the action of inflammation-fueling Janus kinase proteins, suspected to play a role in Alzheimer’s disease and known for their role in autoimmune conditions. The team’s analyses also pointed to other potential treatment targets for further investigation.

“We are excited to share these results with the academic and pharmaceutical research communities. Our hope is that further validation by other researchers will refine the prioritization of these drugs for clinical investigation,” said Mark Albers, HMS assistant professor of neurology at Mass General and a faculty member of the Laboratory of Systems Pharmacology at HMS.

One of these drugs, baricitinib, will be investigated by Albers in a clinical trial for patients with subjective cognitive complaints, mild cognitive impairment, and Alzheimer’s disease that will be launching soon at Mass General and at Holy Cross Health in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “In addition, independent validation of the nominated drug targets could provide new insights into the mechanisms behind Alzheimer’s disease and lead to novel therapies,” said Albers, who is also associate director of the Massachusetts Center for Alzheimer Therapeutic Science at Mass General.

This work was supported by the National Institute on Aging, CART fund, and Harvard Catalyst Program for Faculty Development and Diversity Inclusion.

Rodriguez, Albers, and Sokolov are inventors on a patent application for novel targets in neurodegenerative diseases. Additional ethics declarations for all authors involved in the study appear in the publication.

Ernesto Cardenal’s Prayer for Marilyn Monroe

She hungered for love and we offered her tranquilizers.
For her despair, because we’re not saints psychoanalysis was recommended to her...

---

Image: Germán & Co

Moscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins

After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.

Source: Reuters by Vladimir Soldatkin

Today

NOVY URENGOY, Russia, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Meticulously crafted over decades as a major revenue stream for the Kremlin, Moscow's gas trade with Europe is unlikely to recover from the ravages of military conflict.

After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.

The latest sanctions, including price caps, are likely to disrupt oil trade further but it is easier to find new markets for crude and refined products than for gas.

Russia's gas trade with Europe has been based on thousands of miles of pipes beginning in Siberia and stretching to Germany and beyond. Until last year, they locked Western buyers into a long-term supply relationship.

"Of course, the loss of the European market is a very serious test for Russia in the gas aspect," Yury Shafranik, Russian fuel and energy minister from 1993 to 1996, told Reuters.

A former senior manager at Gazprom (GAZP.MM) was more direct.

"The work of hundreds of people, who for decades built the exporting system, now has been flushed down the toilet," the former manager told Reuters on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

Current employees, however, say it is business as usual.

"Nothing has changed for us. We had a pay rise twice last year," a Gazprom's official, who is not authorised to speak to press, told Reuters in Novy Urengoy. The Arctic city is often referred to as Russia's "gas capital" because it was built to serve the biggest gas fields.

'STATE WITHIN A STATE'

The state gas export giant Gazprom, which has offices there, was formed in the dying days of the Soviet Union in 1989 under the Ministry of Gas Industry, headed by Viktor Chernomyrdin.

"Chernomyrdin never allowed anyone to put his nose into Gazprom. It was a state within a state, and remains so to an extent," Shafranik said.

Since the military operation began on Feb. 24 last year, less information has been available.

Like many Russian companies, Gazprom stopped disclosing details of its financial results.

According to Reuters' estimates, based on export fees and export volumes data, Gazprom's revenues from overseas sales were around $3.4 billion in January down from $6.3 billion in the same period last year.

The figures, combined with forecasts of exports and average gas prices, imply Gazprom's exporting revenues will almost halve this year, widening the $25 billion budget deficit Russia posted in January.

Already, the company's natural gas exports last year almost halved to reach a post-Soviet low and the downward trend has continued this year.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen estimated Russia cut 80% of gas supplies to the EU in the eight months after the conflict began in Ukraine.

As a result, Russia supplied only around 7.5% of western Europe's gas needs by the end of last year, compared with around 40% in 2021.

Before the conflict, Russia had been confident of selling more to Europe, not less.

Elena Burmistrova, the head of Gazprom's exporting unit, told an industry event in Vienna in 2019 the company's record-high exports outside Soviet Union of more than 200 billion cubic metres (bcm) achieved in 2018 were the "new reality".

Last year, the total was just above 100 bcm.

Russia's transporting capacities were undermined last year after mysterious blasts in the Baltic Sea at the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany. Russia and the West blamed each other for the blasts.

Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh in a blog said the United States was responsible, which the United States said was 'utterly false'.

Washington has long criticised Germany's policy of reliance on Russian energy, which until last year, Berlin had said was a means to improve relations.

THE DEAL OF THE 20TH-CENTURY

For his part, Putin had been seeking to diversify Russia's gas markets long before last year, but the policy has gathered momentum.

In October, he mooted an idea of a gas hub in Turkey to divert the Russian gas flows from the Baltic Sea and North-West Europe.

Russia is also seeking to boost its pipeline gas sales to China, the world's largest energy consumer and top buyer of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.

Supplies began via the Power of Siberia Pipeline in late 2019 and Russia aims to raise the annual exports to around 38 bcm from 2025.

Moscow also has an agreement with Beijing for another 10 bcm per year from a yet-to-be built pipeline from the Pacific island of Sakhalin, while Russia is also developing plans for Power of Siberia 2 from Western Siberia, which in theory could supply an additional 50 bcm per year to China.

Whether that relationship can be as lucrative as the decades of supplying gas to Europe remains to be seen.

Gazprom's most important assets are located in West Siberia and in the wider Arctic Yamal region, where the 100,000-strong city of Novy Urengoy, which celebrates its 50th-anniversary in 2025, houses seasonal workers in utilitarian, high-rise blocks.

One of the fields in the tundra area, around 3,500 kilometres (2,175 miles) northeast of Moscow, where they work is Urengoy.

Following the discovery of the field, which is among the world's largest in 1966, the Soviet Politburo began talks with Western Germany on exchanging gas for pipes, as Russia then lacked production technology.

The resulting agreement, dubbed the "contract of the century" was finalised in 1970 after the then Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, nicknamed "Mr Nyet" in the West for his uncompromising approach, said "da" to the gas-for-pipes deal, which involved supplies of heavy equipment for Moscow as well as gas for Europe.

The 20-year supply deal is worth about $30 billion in current gas prices.

It meant that for decades, Europe and, especially Germany, benefited from relatively cheap, long-term contracts, and relied on Russian natural gas, or methane, for heating households and as a feedstock for the petrochemical industry.

COMPLEX NEGOTIATIONS AHEAD

The negotiations with China on new gas sales are expected to be complex, not least because China is not expected to need additional gas until after 2030, industry analysts said.

Russia also faces far more competition than in the past from renewable energy as the world seeks to limit the impact of climate change, as well as rival pipeline gas supplies to China, including from Turkmenistan.

LNG, which can be shipped anywhere in the world, has further reduced the need for pipeline gas.

Gazprom and China have kept their agreed gas price a secret. Ron Smith, analyst at Moscow-based BCS brokerage, expected the price for 2022 to average $270 per 1,000 cubic metres, much lower than prices in Europe.

It is also below Gazprom's export price of $700 per 1,000 cubic metres, expected by Russian Economy Ministry this year.

Last year, Russia's energy finances, which are not broken down publicly into oil and gas, were supported by the market impact of fears of shortage.

In Europe, gas prices hit record levels and international oil prices shortly after the special military operation began spiked close to their all-time high.

Since then, prices for gas and oil have eased and Western price caps introduced in December and early this year are designed to erode Russia's revenues further.

The Kremlin meanwhile has set Gazprom the mammoth task of building 24,000 kilometres of new pipelines to provide gas for 538,000 households and apartments in Russia from 2021 to 2025.

Domestic gas prices are regulated by the government and there have been discussions about liberalising the gas market, a sensitive issue for Russian households.

Back in Novy Urengoy, where temperatures fall to as low as almost minus 50 Celsius (minus 58 Fahrenheit), Achimgaz, a joint venture between Gazprom and Germany's Wintershall Dea (WINT.UL), also has offices and the flag of Austrian energy company OMV (OMVV.VI) flaps outside an administrative building.

Asked about its presence there, an OMV spokesperson said only the building housed offices of the operator of the Yuzhno-Russkoye field, where the company has a stake.

OMV in March scrapped plans to take a stake in a Gazprom gas field project, while Wintershall Dea, in which BASF (BASFn.DE) holds just under 73% percent, said last month it was pulling out of Russia.

The Gazprom official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the company will regret that.

"We will just have to use more gas for our domestic households instead of exporting it to Europe. China also needs gas," the official said.

---

Source:https: Wibestbroker.com

OPEC raises 2023 oil demand growth view, points to tighter market

"Downside risks are apparent and may include further geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, China's ongoing domestic challenges amid the pandemic, and potential spillovers from China's still fragile real estate sector," OPEC said.

Reuter by Alex Lawler

LONDON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - OPEC has raised its 2023 global oil demand growth forecast in its first upward revision for months, due to China's relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, and trimmed supply forecasts for Russia and other non-OPEC producers, pointing to a tighter market.

Global oil demand will rise this year by 2.32 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.3%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Tuesday in a monthly report.

The projection is 100,000 bpd higher than last month's forecast.

A tighter supply and demand balance could support oil prices that have held relatively steady since December and stand at a little less than $86 a barrel. OPEC had kept its 2023 demand growth forecast steady for the past two months after a series of downgrades as the economic outlook worsened.

"Key to oil demand growth in 2023 will be the return of China from its mandated mobility restrictions and the effect this will have on the country, the region and the world," OPEC said in the report.

"Concern hovers around the depth and pace of the country's economic recovery and the consequent impact on oil demand."

OPEC expects Chinese demand to grow by 590,000 bpd in 2023, up from last month's forecast of 510,000 bpd. China's oil consumption dropped for the first time in years in 2022, held back by its COVID containment measures.

The OPEC report was upbeat on economic prospects, nudging up its 2023 global growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.5%, though it said that a relative slowdown remained evident and cited high inflation and expected further increases to interest rates.

Other upside factors are the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will manage a soft landing for the U.S. economy and further commodity price weakness, OPEC said, although various potentially negative factors persist.

OUTPUT CUTS

"Downside risks are apparent and may include further geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe, China's ongoing domestic challenges amid the pandemic, and potential spillovers from China's still fragile real estate sector," OPEC said.

Oil was down more than $1, moving towards $85, after the report was released.

The report also showed that OPEC's crude oil production fell in January after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged output cuts to support the market.

For November last year, with prices weakening, OPEC+ agreed to a 2 million bpd reduction in its output target - the largest since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. OPEC's share of the cut is 1.27 million bpd.

In the report, OPEC said its crude oil output in January fell by 49,000 bpd to 28.88 million bpd as declines in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran offset increases elsewhere.

OPEC also lowered its forecast of 2023 growth in supply from producers outside the group to 1.4 million bpd, from 1.5 million bpd last month, citing lower expectations from Russia and the United States.

Russia said last week it will cut oil production by 500,000 bpd in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products over its invasion of Ukraine.

OPEC, which was already forecasting a decline in Russian output in 2023, said in the report it now expected Russian production to fall by 900,000 bpd this year, down from a decline of 850,000 bpd expected last month.

With non-OPEC supply lower and demand growth higher, the report raised its estimate of the amount of crude OPEC needs to pump in 2023 to balance the market by 200,000 bpd to 29.4 million bpd - about 500,000 more than OPEC pumped in January.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Billionaires, whistleblowers, criminals, political opponents: The targets of the disinformation factory

Investigation#StoryKillers. 'Le Monde' and its media partners were able to identify thousands of accounts on social media controlled by 'Team Jorge,' and to analyze its fake information campaigns.

Le Monde by Damien Leloup  and Florian Reynaud, Published on February 15, 2023

Everyone and anyone can be a target for the disinformation campaigns that rich clients have paid handsomely to hire the services of " Team Jorge," this discreet Israeli operative whose infrastructure Le Monde and its media partners, coordinated by Forbidden Stories, were able to analyze. At the heart of its operational tools are the "AIMS" (for "Advanced impact media solutions"), a network of 30,000 highly sophisticated fake profiles on Twitter, Facebook and Reddit, used to spread false information. These profiles target businessmen, politicians, whistleblowers and crime suspects all over the world. Here is an overview of some of the main targets of these disinformation mercenaries.

#StoryKillers: Investigation into the disinformation machine

For several months, 20 different media outlets, including Le Monde, worked with the Forbidden Stories consortium to investigate companies that specialize in the manipulation of public opinion and the dissemination of fake news. Within the framework of this project called #StoryKillers, three journalists from the consortium posed as intermediaries for a potential French client in order to set up meetings with operatives selling "turnkey" influence tools.

This investigation revealed the existence of "Team Jorge", an extremely discreet Israeli company that claims to have interfered in dozens of elections around the world. It offers its clients an arsenal of illegal services, from hacking into e-mail accounts and private messaging systems to the massive dissemination of influence campaigns thanks to a gigantic network of fake accounts on social networks.

Target: Peter Nygard, Canadian billionaire accused of multiple sex crimes

Who is he? Peter Nygard, who made his fortune in fashion, has been accused by multiple women, some of them minors at the time, of sexual assault or rape – accusations that have been corroborated by multiple pieces of evidence, according to the FBI. In early 2020, Team Jorge launched a massive online influencer campaign to put the case at the top of the media agenda. Nygard has been in prison since December 2020, awaiting trial.

The modus operandi: The avatar network was used to widely distribute links to an attack site, Nygardrapestories.com, now offline, containing numerous articles accusing the billionaire. Dozens of fake accounts were also used to call out journalists, stars and partners of Peter Nygard's companies on the accusations against him; part of the campaign specifically targeted Oprah Winfrey, the famous American anchorwoman, who had devoted a segment to the billionaire in the 1990s, long before the first accusations emerged, to encourage her to publicly accuse the billionaire.

Effectiveness: Moderate. Nygard had already, since at least 2018, been in the crosshairs of justice in the United States and Canada, but the campaign seems to have attracted attention – a Newsweek article on the subject included several tweets from the campaign.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: Among the possible clients is another billionaire, American Louis Bacon. The revelations of several women accusing Nygard were encouraged by Bacon, who funded their travel to testify and hired private investigators to probe the case. The two billionaires have been in open conflict for years, amidst neighborhood feuds in the Bahamas, where they both own luxurious adjoining properties. Bacon's lawyers did not respond when contacted.

Target: Xavier Justo, Swiss whistleblower

Who is he? In 2015, Xavier Justo, a Swiss banker working in Malaysia, had lifted the veil on what would become the "1MDB" corruption scandal. His revelations would contribute to the 2018 electoral defeat of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who was directly implicated in the embezzlement case.

The modus operandi: At the end of 2020, a website and a YouTube channel usurping the identity of Justo went up online. They presented him as someone only in it for the money, whose word was not reliable and recycled confessions of the Swiss banker, obtained according to him under duress when he had been arrested in Thailand shortly after his revelations. This site and this channel were then widely distributed on social media, by the network of avatars of Team Jorge, as part of a larger operation of defamation, calling Justo a thief, a drug addict, a blackmailer...

Effectiveness: Unknown. The precise purpose of the campaign remains unclear.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: Several figures involved in the 1MDB scandal may have had a motivation to try to discredit Justo, starting with former Prime Minister Najib Razak, but as of the date of this campaign, he was in jail. Chinese-Malaysian businessman Jho Low, a key figure in the scandal and still on the run today, may also have had an interest in taking on the whistleblower.

Targets: Far-right activists British Tommy Robinson and American Lisa Barbounis

Who are they? Tommy Robinson is a well-known activist from the English far right, specializing in Islamophobic gatherings and conspiracy theories, founder of the pressure group English Defense League and who has been convicted by the courts on several occasions. American Lisa Barbounis is a former employee of the Middle East Forum (MEF), an ultraconservative think tank and supporter of Tommy Robinson. In 2019, she spent a long time in England participating in the campaign to support the activist.

The modus operandi: In mid-July 2021, avatars controlled by Team Jorge publish dozens of messages attacking Robinson and Barbounis. Robinson was designated, on rather factual grounds and often with the help of legitimate articles published by the general press, as a far-right activist. Barbounis, on the other hand, was accused of being an "influence agent" close to Russia, and the campaign focused on her new job as an advisor to a Texas congressman, half-heartedly accusing her of being a spy for Vladimir Putin. The campaign has also widely disseminated accusations, from the Daily Mail, which cited a Middle East Forum lawsuit against Barbounis, accusing her of having an extramarital affair with a Robinson lieutenant, and of embezzling money from the Middle East Forum to buy cocaine, among other things.

Effectiveness: None. The campaign seems to have had no resonance of any magnitude.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: The campaign bears all the hallmarks of an internal score-settling within Anglo-American far-right circles. In 2019, Barbounis filed a complaint, along with three other women, against the MEF, accusing its director of sexual harassment, among other things. These complaints, like the one filed by MEF against Barbounis, ended in dismissals. The MEF denies knowledge of any influence campaign about this issue.

Target: Tomas Zeron, former Mexican police official

Who is he? Tomas Zeron de Lucio is an ex-police figure in Mexico. A former member of the Mexico State Attorney's Office, from 2013 to 2016 he was the director of the Agencia de Investigacion Criminal (AIC), a then newly created administrative body responsible for centralizing federal criminal investigations. In 2016, Zeron resigned during a scandal surrounding his handling of the investigation into the scandal of the 43 missing students from Ayotzinapa in 2014. Suspected of evidence tampering and torture, an Interpol international arrest warrant was issued against him and he currently lives in Israel.

The modus operandi: During the summer of 2020, some 40 Twitter accounts and several Facebook accounts attributed to Team Jorge began posting articles and videos painting an embellished depiction of Zeron, presenting him as a competent investigator who had worked effectively against organized crime and being the victim of a political cabal. Some avatars claimed that no arrest warrant had been issued against the former police officer, arguing that his red notice was missing from the Interpol website. At least one article that may have been written directly on behalf of Team Jorge and published online in June 2020 sang the praises of the former AIC director and claimed that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ("AMLO") had been corrupted by Mexican cartels and was waging a political campaign against former investigators and in particular Zerón.

Effectiveness: Likely zero. Articles created directly on behalf of the campaign did not resonate on social media outside of the fake accounts run by the AIMS network.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: The first likely backer of the campaign is Zeron himself, first of all because it is entirely dedicated to singing the praises of the former investigator and attacking President AMLO, presented as the source of the prosecution against him. Most importantly, Zeron also has ties to the Israeli cybersecurity industry, as the agency he headed is accused of having purchased a license for Pegasus spyware, developed by the company NSO. His lawyers claim that he "is not responsible for any publicity campaign in his favor".

Target: Alexander Zingman and Vitali Fishman, Belarusian businessmen

Who are they? The Belarusian businessman Alexander Zingman, reputedly close to autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko, has been very active in Africa for the past two decades, and more particularly in Zimbabwe, where he is honorary consul. He was one of the architects of a series of trade agreements that directly benefited Lukashenko's son.

The modus operandi: In early summer 2020, fake Facebook and Twitter accounts belonging to the AIMS network were used to publish a series of posts, in Russian and English, touting Zingman's business talent. The messages highlighted the success of the electric buses he produces or thanked him for bringing humanitarian aid to Zimbabwe after Cyclone Idai in 2019. A parallel campaign violently attacked another Belarusian national: Vitali Fishman, also close to the Lukashenko regime. The two men, both suspected of being linked to arms trafficking in Africa, were at the time fighting.

Effectiveness: Hard to estimate. In 2021, Zingman was briefly detained in the Democratic Republic of Congo on suspicion of arms trafficking, then released without charge. AIMS were likely not the only tool used in this conflict. In January 2022, Mr. Fishman filed a complaint in the United States, claiming to be the target of a massive online smear campaign. The sites and social media accounts mentioned in the complaint are directly linked to the architecture of fake Team Jorge accounts.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: The fact that the same network touted Zingman while attacking one of his rivals makes him a possible customer. Both Fishman and Zingman have longstanding connections in Israeli ultraconservative circles and cyber industry. When contacted by Le Monde, Zingman denies having ever used fake account or fake news services, and explains that he himself has been the target of several disinformation campaigns.

Target: California Governor Gavin Newsom

Who is he? The Governor of California since 2018, former mayor of San Francisco and a heavyweight in the US Democratic Party.

The modus operandi: In September 2022, in the home stretch of the election campaign during which Gavin Newsom was running for a second term, dozens of fake Twitter and Facebook accounts, claiming to be those of environmental advocates, attacked the governor's energy policy. In particular, they criticized him for refusing to develop more nuclear power – California only has one nuclear power plant, in Diablo Canyon, whose license was narrowly renewed because of seismic risks. A petition attacked Newsom's alleged inaction as California's crumbling power grid suffered frequent blackouts.

Efficiency: Moderate. The petition garnered several thousand signatures but did not appear to have had a tangible impact on state energy policy.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: The timing of the fake accounts' activity is intriguing; they primarily posted in the summer of 2022, during the home stretch of the California gubernatorial campaign. But by then, the only openly pro-nuclear candidate, "eco-modernist" Michael Shellenberger, was out of the race – he came in third in the Democratic primary in early June with 4.1% of the votes. And the Diablo Canyon plant has already received an extension. Another possible avenue is plant builders – the avatars specifically touted the benefits of molten salt reactors, a technology mastered by only a handful of companies.

Target: Cryptocurrency companies Binance and Nexo

Who are they? Binance is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange company. It allows you to trade bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptoassets for traditional currencies. Nexo is a cryptocurrency collateralized lending company, which also operates its own stablecoin (a cryptocurrency backed by collateral, an asset or fiat currency), also known as nexo.

The modus operandi: On September 5, 2022, Binance announced that it would now automatically convert a number of stablecoins into its own stablecoin binance. The decision was deemed anti-competitive by the issuers of the affected stablecoins, including Nexo. In the following days, avatars from the AIMS fake account network published dozens of messages attacking Binance's decision and its CEO. At the same time, other avatars posted elaborate exchanges claiming that Nexo was a forward-looking company with safe products, and claiming that the US court's prosecution of the company for investment law violations was a conspiracy by competitors.

Effectiveness: Low. Binance has not reversed its decision and investigations continue against Nexo. The company's stablecoin price has more or less stabilized. While the campaign was quite elaborate in its rhetoric, it also made some gross errors, such as misspelling the Twitter account of Binance's boss.

The suspected Team Jorge clients: The campaign primarily benefited Nexo, but could have been the work of a major investor in the company's stablecoin, or even Team Jorge itself. The Israeli operative has claimed to sometimes use its avatars to influence the price of crypto-currencies. Nexo insists it has "never used any such services. It would be unimaginable that a company with several million users, managing billions of euros in funds, and with dozens of regulatory licenses would use such services."

---

Image: NYT

Inflation Cooled Just Slightly, With Worrying Details

Consumer Price Index inflation has been slowing compared with a year ago, but evidence is mounting that it could be a long road back to normal.

NYT by Jeanna Smialek, Feb. 14, 2023

WASHINGTON — Inflation has slowed from its painful 2022 peak but remains uncomfortably rapid, data released Tuesday showed, and the forces pushing prices higher are proving stubborn in ways that could make it difficult to wrestle cost increases back to the Federal Reserve’s goal.

The Consumer Price Index climbed by 6.4 percent in January compared with a year earlier, faster than economists had forecast and only a slight slowdown from 6.5 percent in December. While the annual pace of increase has cooled from a peak of 9.1 percent in summer 2022, it remains more than three times as fast as was typical before the pandemic.

And prices continued to increase rapidly on a monthly basis as a broad array of goods and services, including apparel, groceries, hotel rooms and rent, became more expensive. That was true even after stripping out volatile food and fuel costs.

Taken as a whole, the data underlined that while the Federal Reserve has been receiving positive news that inflation is no longer accelerating relentlessly, it could be a long and bumpy road back to the 2 percent annual price gains that used to be normal. Prices for everyday purchases are still climbing at a pace that risks chipping away at economic security for many households.

“We’re certainly down from the peak of inflation pressures last year, but we’re lingering at an elevated rate,” said Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives. “The road back to 2 percent is going to take some time.”

Stock prices sank in the hours after the report, and market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates above 5 percent in the coming months increased slightly. Central bankers have already lifted borrowing costs from near zero a year ago to above 4.5 percent, a rapid-fire adjustment meant to slow consumer and business demand in a bid to wrestle price increases under control.

But the economy has so far held up in the face of the central bank’s campaign to slow it down. Growth did cool last year, with the rate-sensitive housing market pulling back and demand for big purchases like cars waning, but the job market has remained strong and wages are still climbing robustly.

That could help to keep the economy chugging along into 2023. Consumption overall had shown signs of slowing meaningfully, but it may be poised for a comeback. Economists expect retail sales data scheduled for release on Wednesday to show that spending climbed 2 percent in January after falling 1.1 percent in December, based on estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Signs of continued economic momentum could combine with incoming price data to convince the Fed that it needs to do more to bring inflation fully under control, which could entail pushing rates higher than expected or leaving them elevated for longer. Central bankers have been warning that the process of wrangling cost increases might prove bumpy and difficult.

Inflation F.A.Q.

What is inflation?

Inflation is a loss of purchasing power over time, meaning your dollar will not go as far tomorrow as it did today. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.

What causes inflation?

It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.

Is inflation bad?

It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.

How does inflation affect the poor?

Inflation can be especially hard to shoulder for poor households because they spend a bigger chunk of their budgets on necessities like food, housing and gas.

Can inflation affect the stock market?

Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms, while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.

“There has been an expectation that it will go away quickly and painlessly — and I don’t think that’s at all guaranteed,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event last week. “The base case for me is that it will take some time, and we’ll have to do more rate increases, and then we’ll have to look around and see whether we’ve done enough.”

A broad range of products and services kept inflation elevated in January: Pricier hotels, car insurance and vehicle repairs all contributed to the increase in the overall index.

Some goods, including used cars and clothing for women, dropped in price on a monthly basis. Even so, the slowdown for some physical products was less pronounced than it had been. Price increases for overall apparel accelerated, for instance.

Moderating price increases for goods and commodities have driven the overall inflation slowdown in recent months. Fed officials have embraced the cool-down but have also warned that it may not continue, because it has come as pandemic disruptions faded and tangled supply chains unsnarled.

“Supply chains can’t recover twice,” Lorie Logan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in a speech on Tuesday.

Pre-owned vehicles offer a good example of why the drag from falling prices for some goods may prove temporary. Used-car prices have been declining back to normal thanks to lagging demand and rebounding supply, and that has been helping to subtract from overall price increases. But used-car costs are already beginning to pick up again at a wholesale level, which suggests that the trend is unlikely to last indefinitely.

That is why central bankers and economists are closely watching what happens with prices for services, like health care and restaurant meals, pedicures and tax accounting.

Services inflation, which includes restaurant meals and other non-goods purchases, remains unusually rapid and has shown little sign of slowing down.Credit...Casey Steffens for The New York Times

Service prices may prove to be more closely tied to underlying momentum in the economy: Labor is a major cost for many service companies, so businesses are likely to charge more when unemployment is low and they have to increase pay to compete for workers.

So far, such inflation shows little sign of letting up. Service prices excluding energy continued to increase rapidly in January, owing in part to the jump in rental and other housing costs.

That rapid rent inflation is expected to abate in the months ahead as a recent pullback in asking rents on newly leased apartments gradually feeds into official inflation data. But how much — and for how long — increases in housing costs will fade is uncertain.

“It is a little bit unclear what the underlying momentum is in shelter,” said Sonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, explaining that strong job gains and solid wage growth could keep pressures on the market. “Shelter tends to correlate with a tight labor market.”

Hiring in America remains unusually strong, despite recent high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. Employers added more than half a million jobs in January, an unexpectedly robust number, and gains in average hourly earnings and other pay trackers remain rapid, though they have begun to slow.

The unsavory question confronting officials at the Fed is whether the labor market will need to weaken in order to wrestle inflation lower. Many central bankers have suggested that wage increases are probably too hot to be consistent with 2 percent inflation, their official target. Central bankers define their inflation goal using a related but more delayed inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index.

“I don’t think they’re going to feel comfortable until the labor market turns a little more decisively,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.

While some policymakers have argued that the Fed should be careful not to constrain the labor market more than is necessary in its battle against inflation, that so-called dovish wing of the central bank’s policymaking set is poised to lose a key member. President Biden is going to make Lael Brainard, the Fed’s vice chair, the new head of his National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter.

Ms. Brainard has emphasized in recent speeches that the central bank may be able to wrestle inflation lower without slowing demand so much that it results in significant job losses. And she has focused on drivers of inflation outside of the labor market, including swollen corporate profits and aftershocks from high fuel prices.

But as she has emphasized those hopeful reasons that price increases might moderate, many other Fed officials have focused more keenly on the risk that services outside of housing will continue to climb at their current pace — keeping inflation too hot for comfort.

If that price measure “remained in its current range, while other categories returned to their prepandemic pace, total inflation going forward would settle much closer to 3 percent than to our 2 percent goal,” Ms. Logan from the Dallas Fed warned on Tuesday. She explained services inflation “as a symptom of an overheated economy, particularly a tight labor market.”

John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on Tuesday that controlling inflation “will likely entail a period of subdued growth and some softening of labor market conditions.”

For now, a mounting body of evidence suggests that inflation is not fading as quickly as economists and central bankers had hoped even a month or two ago, said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard who was an Obama administration economic adviser.

“It turns out that a lot of that was probably a false dawn,” Mr. Furman said. “The whole perspective we have on inflation is much worse.”

---

News round-up, Monday, February 13, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

We’re experiencing a mental health crisis. Approximately 15.5% of the global population is affected by mental illnesses, and those numbers are rising. Although there are many who require treatment, more than 50% of mental illnesses remain untreated. In the United States, one in five adults suffers from some form of mental illness. Every 40 seconds one person dies from suicide and for every adult who dies from suicide, there are more than 20 others who have attempted to end their life. The ramifications of this go beyond our families and cultures as mental health also has a tremendous economic impact for the cost of treatment as well as the loss of productivity.

Forbes by Bernard Marr

Despite all its problems, Latin America has much to contribute in a troubled world. The far West, as Alain Rouquié called it, has medium development, decisive environmental resources in relation to climate change and natural resources that can contribute exponentially to the information age and digitalisation. Making them count requires a long view and a strategic capacity that we see little of in our rulers at the moment. A change of course is essential if we want to make an impact in the 21st century.

Ernesto Ottone (Valparaíso, 1948) was among those who rejected the proposal for a new Constitution in the plebiscite on 4 September, like 62% of Chileans. "I reject it because I am convinced that it is the best way for a good Constitution", he told EL PAÍS before the referendum.

---

Most Read…

What’s Going On Up There? Theories but No Answers in Shootdowns of Mystery Craft.

The U.S. and Canada are investigating three unidentified flying objects shot down over North America in the past three days. Militaries have adjusted radars to try to spot more incursions.

NYT by Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Edward Wong

The countries warn the EU against an overhaul of the energy market in “crisis mode”.

The European Commission is drafting an overhaul of the EU’s electricity market rules with the aim of better cushioning consumer bills ahead of fossil fuel price spikes and avoiding a repeat of the surge in electricity wort sparked by cuts in Russia’s gas supplies last year.

Ukdaily.news by Mia Gordon

Chile faces largest wildfires since 2017

In DepthFires fueled by drought and heatwaves killed 24 and destroyed 373,000 hectares since February 1.

LE MONDE BY FLORA GENOUX (BUENOS AIRES (ARGENTINA) CORRESPONDENT)

"The time will come when President Boric will have to choose between reform or re-foundation".

This Chilean sociologist, with a communist past and key advisor to the government of socialist Ricardo Lagos, says that a change of course in Latin America is indispensable "if we want to influence the 21st century".

EL PAÍS BY ROCÍO MONTES

Argentina will receive a million-dollar investment to facilitate the export of gas from Vaca Muerta to Brazil and Chile.

CAF - Development Bank of Latin America - will provide 540 million dollars for the construction of a gas pipeline network. Its vice-president, Christian Asinelli, defends the use of natural gas in the region as a "just transition energy".

El País by LORENA ARROYO

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

The Incredible Ways Artificial Intelligence Is Now Used In Mental Health

Forbes by Bernard Marr

Stigma

Stereotypes surrounding those with mental illnesses prevent patients from seeking the help they need. According to a World Health Organization study, 30 to 80 percent of those with mental health issues don’t seek treatment. It’s common to hear stereotypes about people with mental health issues like they’re dangerous, incompetent, or responsible for their illness. 

We’re experiencing a mental health crisis. Approximately 15.5% of the global population is affected by mental illnesses, and those numbers are rising. Although there are many who require treatment, more than 50% of mental illnesses remain untreated. In the United States, one in five adults suffers from some form of mental illness. Every 40 seconds one person dies from suicide and for every adult who dies from suicide, there are more than 20 others who have attempted to end their life. The ramifications of this go beyond our families and cultures as mental health also has a tremendous economic impact for the cost of treatment as well as the loss of productivity.

The critical shortfall of psychiatrists and other mental health specialists to provide treatment exacerbates this crisis. In fact, nearly 40% of Americans live where there is a shortage of mental health professionals; 60% of U.S. counties don’t have a psychiatrist. Those that do have access to mental health professionals often forgo treatment because they can’t afford it. Those with depression visit primary care physicians an average of five times a year versus three times for those who don’t have it. Others seek help in emergency rooms which are more expensive. More than $201 billion is spent on mental health annually making mental health the most expensive part of our healthcare system after knocking out heart conditions for the honor.

Examples of current uses of AI in mental health

Researchers are testing different ways that artificial intelligence can help screen, diagnose and treat mental illness.

Researchers from the World Well-Being Project (WWBP) analyzed social media with an AI algorithm to pick out linguistic cues that might predict depression. It turns out that those suffering from depression express themselves on social media in ways that those dealing with other chronic conditions do not such as mentions of loneliness and using words such as "feelings," "I" and "me." The team's findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, but after analyzing half a million Facebook posts from people who consented to provide their Facebook status updates and medical records, they were able to identify depression-associated language markers. What the researchers found was that linguistic markers could predict depression up to three months before the person receives a formal diagnosis. Other researchers use technology to explore the way facial expressions, enunciation of words and tone and language could indicate suicide risk.

In addition to researchers, there are several companies using artificial intelligence to help tackle the mental health crisis. Quartet's platform flags possible mental conditions and can refer patients to a provider or a computerized cognitive behavioral therapy program. Ginger’s contribution is a chat application used by employers that provides direct counseling services to employees. Its algorithms analyze the words someone uses and then relies on its training from more than 2 billion behavioral data samples, 45 million chat messages and 2 million clinical assessments to provide a recommendation. The CompanionMX system has an app that allows patients being treated with depression, bipolar disorders, and other conditions to create an audio log where they can talk about how they are feeling. The AI system analyzes the recording as well as looks for changes in behavior for proactive mental health monitoring. Bark, a parental control phone tracker app, monitors major messaging and social media platforms to look for signs of cyberbullying, depression, suicidal thoughts and sexting on a child’s phone.

These are just a few of the innovative solutions that support mental health.

4 Benefits of using AI to help solve the mental health crisis

There are several reasons why AI could be a powerful tool to help us solve the mental health crisis. Here are four benefits:

1.      Support mental health professionals

As it does for many industries, AI can help support mental health professionals in doing their jobs. Algorithms can analyze data much faster than humans, can suggest possible treatments, monitor a patient’s progress and alert the human professional to any concerns. In many cases, AI and a human clinician would work together.

1.      24/7 access

Due to the lack of human mental health professionals, it can take months to get an appointment. If patients live in an area without enough mental health professionals, their wait will be even longer. AI provides a tool that an individual can access all the time, 24/7 without waiting for an appointment.

1.      Not expensive

The cost of care prohibits some individuals from seeking help. Artificial intelligent tools could offer a more accessible solution.

1.      Comfort talking to a bot

While it might take some people time to feel comfortable talking to a bot, the anonymity of an AI algorithm can be positive. What might be difficult to share with a therapist in person is easier for some to disclose to a bot.

Obstacles to overcome

While there is great promise for using AI to help the current mental health crisis, there are still obstacles to overcome. There are significant privacy concerns as well as making people comfortable and willing to accept various levels of being monitored in their day-to-day lives. In addition, there is no regulation for these applications, so it is advised that any app be used in conjunction with a mental health professional. As AI tools are created, it is essential that they are protocols in place to make them safe and effective and built and trained with a diverse data set, so they aren't biased toward a particular population.

Overall, AI has the promise to provide critical resources we need to overcome our mental health crisis.

---

Ernesto Cardenal’s Prayer for Marilyn Monroe

She hungered for love and we offered her tranquilizers.
For her despair, because we’re not saints psychoanalysis was recommended to her...

One of Latin America’s most acclaimed poets, he wrote verses that offered a cosmic fusion of spirituality, politics, science and history, while appearing at frequent lectures and readings that made him a kind of international ambassador for Nicaragua.

Father Cardenal drew few boundaries between his callings. The son of a wealthy Nicaraguan family, he fought with a revolutionary group in his late 20s, then emerged as a leading proponent of liberation theology, which emphasizes Jesus’s message to the poor and oppressed.

The washington post By Harrison Smith

March 2, 2020

Ernesto Cardenal’s Prayer for Marilyn Monroe

Lord

receive this young woman known around the world as Marilyn Monroe
although that wasn’t her real name
(but You know her real name, the name of the orphan raped at the age of 6
and the shopgirl who at 16 had tried to kill herself)
who now comes before You without any makeup
without her Press Agent
without photographers and without autograph hounds,
alone like an astronaut facing night in space.

She dreamed when she was little that she was naked in a church
(according to the Time account)
before a prostrated crowd of people, their heads on the floor
and she had to walk on tiptoe so as not to step on their heads.
You know our dreams better than the psychiatrists.
Church, home, cave, all represent the security of the womb
but something else too …
The heads are her fans, that’s clear
(the mass of heads in the dark under the beam of light).
But the temple isn’t the studios of 20th Century-Fox.
The temple—of marble and gold—is the temple of her body
in which the Son of Man stands whip in hand
driving out the studio bosses of 20th Century-Fox
who made Your house of prayer a den of thieves.

Lord
in this world polluted with sin and radioactivity
You won’t blame it all on a shopgirl
who, like any other shopgirl, dreamed of being a star.
Her dream just became a reality (but like Technicolor’s reality).
She only acted according to the script we gave her
—the story of our own lives. And it was an absurd script.
Forgive her, Lord, and forgive us
for our 20th Century
for this Colossal Super-Production on which we all have worked.
She hungered for love and we offered her tranquilizers.
For her despair, because we’re not saints
psychoanalysis was recommended to her.
Remember, Lord, her growing fear of the camera
and her hatred of makeup—insisting on fresh makeup for each scene—
and how the terror kept building up in her
and making her late to the studios.

Like any other shopgirl
she dreamed of being a star.
And her life was unreal like a dream that a psychiatrist interprets and files.

Her romances were a kiss with closed eyes
and when she opened them
she realized she had been under floodlights
as they killed the floodlights!
and they took down the two walls of the room (it was a movie set)
while the Director left with his scriptbook
because the scene had been shot.
Or like a cruise on a yacht, a kiss in Singapore, a dance in Rio
the reception at the mansion of the Duke and Duchess of Windsor
all viewed in a poor apartment’s tiny living room.

The film ended without the final kiss.
She was found dead in her bed with her hand on the phone.
And the detectives never learned who she was going to call.
She was
like someone who had dialed the number of the only friendly voice
and only heard the voice of a recording that says: WRONG NUMBER.
Or like someone who had been wounded by gangsters
reaching for a disconnected phone.

Lord
whoever it might have been that she was going to call
and didn’t call (and maybe it was no one
or Someone whose number isn’t in the Los Angeles phonebook)
You answer that telephone!

(Translated from the Spanish by Jonathan Cohen)

---

The Pentagon and intelligence agencies have intensified their study of unexplained incidents near military bases in recent years.

Image: Germán & Co

What’s Going On Up There? Theories but No Answers in Shootdowns of Mystery Craft.

The U.S. and Canada are investigating three unidentified flying objects shot down over North America in the past three days. Militaries have adjusted radars to try to spot more incursions.

NYT by Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Edward Wong

Published Feb. 12, 2023

WASHINGTON — If the truth is out there, it certainly is not apparent yet.

Pentagon and intelligence officials are trying to make sense of three unidentified flying objects over Alaska, Canada and Michigan that U.S. fighter jets shot down with missiles on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The latest turn in the aerial show taking place in the skies above North America comes after a helter-skelter weekend involving what at times seemed like an invasion of unidentified flying objects.

The latest object had first been spotted on Saturday over Montana, initially sparking debate over whether it even existed. On Saturday, military officials detected a radar blip over Montana, which then disappeared, leading them to conclude it was an anomaly. Then a blip appeared Sunday over Montana, then Wisconsin and Michigan. Once military officials obtained visual confirmation, they ordered an F-16 to shoot it down over Lake Huron.

There are two big questions around the episodes: What were the craft? And why does the United States appear to be seeing more suddenly, and shooting down more?

There are no answers to the first question yet. American officials do not know what the objects were, much less their purpose or who sent them.

For the second, it is not clear if there are suddenly more objects. But what is certain is that in the wake of the recent incursion by a Chinese spy balloon, the U.S. and Canadian militaries are hypervigilant in flagging some objects that might previously have been allowed to pass.

After the transit of the spy balloon this month, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, adjusted its radar system to make it more sensitive. As a result, the number of objects it detected increased sharply. In other words, NORAD is picking up more incursions because it is looking for them, spurred on by the heightened awareness caused by the furor over the spy balloon, which floated over the continental United States for a week before an F-22 shot it down on Feb. 4.

“We have been more closely scrutinizing our airspace at these altitudes, including enhancing our radar, which may at least partly explain the increase in objects that we’ve detected over the past week,” Melissa Dalton, the assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs, said at a news conference on Sunday evening.

American officials have not completely discounted theories that there could also be more objects, period. Some officials theorize that the objects could be from China, or another foreign power, and may be aimed at testing detection abilities after the spy balloon.

The object spotted approaching Lake Huron on Sunday was flying at 20,000 feet and presented a potential threat to civil aviation, so President Biden ordered it shot down, U.S. officials said. It had an octagonal structure with strings hanging off but had no discernible payload, they added.

U.S. and Canadian officials say the objects shot down on Friday and Saturday were also flying lower than the spy balloon, posing a greater danger to civilian aircraft, which prompted leaders to order them destroyed. Those two objects were flying over parts of Alaska and the Yukon that have few residents, and the third object downed on Sunday was over water, so risks posed by falling debris were minimal, they said.

The spy balloon that drifted across the United States flew much higher, at 60,000 feet, and did not pose a danger to aircraft. But any falling debris could have hit people on the ground, Pentagon officials said.

Throughout the weekend, officials said they were still trying to determine what the three objects were. The first, a Defense Department official said, is most likely not a balloon — and it broke into pieces after it was shot down on Friday. Saturday’s object was described by Canadian authorities as cylindrical, and American officials say it is more likely it was a balloon of some kind. Sunday’s object appeared unlikely to be a balloon, one official said.

NORAD radar tracked the first two objects for at least 12 hours before they were shot down. But Defense Department officials have never said whether they picked the objects up on radar before they neared American airspace. One official said it is unclear what keeps the objects aloft.

U.S. officials said they are reviewing video and other sensor readings collected by the American pilots who observed the objects before their destruction. But the exact nature of the objects, where they are from and what they were intended for will not be confirmed until the F.B.I. and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have the chance to thoroughly examine the debris, officials said.

Asked during a news conference on Sunday whether he had ruled out extraterrestrial origins, Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Air Force’s Northern Command, said, “I haven’t ruled out anything at this point.” But in interviews Sunday, national security officials discounted any thoughts that what the Air Force shot out of the sky represented any sort of alien visitors. No one, one senior official said, thinks these things are anything other than devices fashioned here on Earth.

Luis Elizondo, the military intelligence officer who ran the Pentagon’s U.F.O. program until 2017, concurred. But he said that the Biden administration must find a way to balance vigilance over what is going on in the skies above America against “chasing our tail” whenever something unknown shows up — a tough task, he said.

For years, adversaries have sent low-tech gadgets into the skies above the United States, Mr. Elizondo said.

“What’s happening now is you have low-end technology being used to harass America,” he said in an interview. “It is a high-impact, low-cost way for China to do this, and the more you look up in the sky, the more you will see.”

At the urging of Congress, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies have intensified their study of unexplained incidents near military bases in recent years. The studies on what the intelligence community calls unidentified aerial phenomena have pinpointed previously undetected efforts to conduct surveillance on American military exercises and bases. Many of those unexplained incidents have been balloons, and some of them are now believed to be attempted surveillance activity by China or other powers, both using balloons and surveillance drones.

In a public report released last month, the intelligence community said that of 366 unexplained incidents, 163 were later identified as balloons. A related classified document whose findings were reported this month by The New York Times said at least two incidents at U.S. military bases could be examples of advanced aerial technology, possibly developed by China.

“We can now assess flight patterns and trajectory in a much more scientific way,” said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat who wrote the recent legislation mandating greater internal military reporting and analysis of aerial phenomena, leading to more documentation of sightings. “You need to know who’s using the technology and what it is.”

The most alarming theory under consideration by some U.S. officials is that the objects are sent by China or another power in an attempt to learn more about American radar or early warning systems.

A senior administration official said one theory — and the person stressed that it is just a theory — is that China or Russia sent the objects to test American intelligence-gathering capabilities. They could be sent to learn both how quickly the United States becomes aware of an intrusion and how quickly the military can respond to such an incursion, the official said.

American officials are united in their belief that the spy balloon that transited the United States was a Chinese machine meant to conduct surveillance on American military bases. Officials said it was unclear if China had complete control of the balloon during its whole journey. But officials said China did have at least a limited ability to steer it, and the balloon maneuvered on Feb. 3 before it was shot down the next day.

Another American official said the Chinese spy balloon was equipped with a self-destruct mechanism, but Beijing did not use it, a potential sign that Chinese officials wanted to continue to collect intelligence, even after it was discovered.

The disclosure of the balloon by the Pentagon on Feb. 2 led to a public diplomatic crisis between China and the United States. Beijing said it had the right to respond further. On Sunday, a Chinese newspaper reported that local maritime authorities in Shandong Province on the east coast had spotted an “unidentified flying object” in waters by the city of Rizhao and were preparing to shoot it down. State-run news organizations reposted the information.

If any of the devices destroyed in North America over the past three days were Chinese, it would amount to a major provocation on the heels of the spy balloon, one reason some officials said not to jump to the conclusion that the objects are surveillance devices sent from Beijing.

Officials in Beijing seem to want to limit tensions over the spy balloon, suggesting to some U.S. officials that the latest objects are less likely to be deliberate Chinese provocations or tests.

Pentagon officials have been raising flags about deficiencies in North America’s aging warning systems, radar and sensors.

Speaking last year at the Aspen Security Conference in Colorado, General VanHerck said that the United States had struggled to detect certain intrusions, what he called “domain awareness challenges.” General VanHerck said the NORAD radars could not adequately detect hypersonics and other threats.

But, he also said, the United States and Canada were investing in new over-the-horizon radar to better identify potential threats, as well as artificial intelligence systems to help pick out possible intrusions.

“I’m very encouraged with where we’re going,” General VanHerck said last July, “but we still have some challenges to work on.”

---

Image: Germán & Co

The countries warn the EU against an overhaul of the energy market in “crisis mode”.

Ukdaily.news by Mia Gordon

February 13, 2023

The European Commission is drafting an overhaul of the EU’s electricity market rules with the aim of better cushioning consumer bills ahead of fossil fuel price spikes and avoiding a repeat of the surge in electricity wort sparked by cuts in Russia’s gas supplies last year.

The seven countries, led by Denmark, said in a letter that the existing market design in Europe had encouraged lower electricity prices for years, helped expand renewable energy and ensured that enough electricity was produced to meet demand and avoid shortages.

“We must resist the temptation to kill the golden goose that has been our single market for electricity for the past decade,” said Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s energy minister.

Countries said there was some room for improvement, especially given the surge in electricity costs over the past year. However, any changes must ensure the market continues to function and incentivize massive investments in renewable energy, they said.

“Any reform that goes beyond targeted adjustments to the existing framework should be underpinned by an in-depth impact assessment and not adopted in crisis mode,” reads the letter to the Commission, seen by Reuters.

Other countries, including Spain and France, are pursuing deeper reforms. Spain has proposed a switch to longer-term fixed price contracts for power plants to try to limit price spikes.

The seven countries said in their letter that related schemes – such as Contracts for Difference (CfDs) – could play a role, but they should be voluntary, focused on new renewable energy and still “responsive” to the market.

Electricity industry lobby group Eurelectric has also warned against making CFDs mandatory as it could undermine competition in the electricity market and discourage investors.

In their letter, the seven countries supported an idea already discussed by the Commission to make it easier for consumers to choose between electricity contracts with fluctuating and fixed prices.

However, they pushed back another Commission proposal to extend a temporary EU measure reclaiming windfall revenues from non-gas generators.

“That could jeopardize investor confidence in the investments needed,” the countries said in the letter, citing EU estimates that hundreds of billions of euros in renewable energy investments are needed annually to help countries convert from Russian fossil fuels get off.

---

The fire in the vicinity of the city of Dichato, in the south of Chile, on February 10, 2023.

Image: Le Monde by JAVIER TORRES / AFP

Chile faces largest wildfires since 2017

Le Monde by Flora Genoux (Buenos Aires (Argentina) correspondent)

Published on February 12, 2023 

In DepthFires fueled by drought and heatwaves killed 24 and destroyed 373,000 hectares since February 1.

Helpless firefighters standing in front of a wall of flames, inhabitants trying to smother the blaze with buckets of water, a line of fire, visible from the sky, advancing relentlessly over the forest... The violent fires that have been raging in Chile since February 1, in the middle of the southern summer, are delivering their share of apocalyptic images.

The so-called south-central region of the country – the provinces of Maule, Nuble, Biobio and Araucania, located some 280 km South of Santiago – saw thousands of hectares destroyed.

The toll as of Friday, February 10, stood at 24 dead, 1,250 homes wrecked and more than 2,000 being taken care of by health services. In total, more than 373,000 hectares were blown by the disaster. The country is witnessing the worst fires since 2017 during which 467,000 hectares disappeared.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric spoke earlier this week of "very difficult days" while the fires had already been active for a week. He called for the cooperation of all institutions including the private sector.

"In five days, we are seeing a burned area equivalent to two years of fire," Carolina Toha, minister of the interior, said on Monday. This week, more than 5,600 Chilean firefighters continued to fight the flames, with the support of international organizations.

Argentina, Mexico, but also Spain or the United States sent material and human rescue teams. France announced on Tuesday it was sending 80 firemen and rescue workers. The day before, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Twitter: "The Chilean people can count on the support of France to fight against this plague."

The European Union also announced it was sending over firefighters, doctors and experts. "No matter how many planes or how much money is dedicated to fighting the fires, they have become uncontrollable," Roberto Rondanelli, a meteorologist at the University of Chile, said. On Friday, 321 fires were still active. The experts are clear: The origin of the fires is above all human, whether criminal or accidental. "There is a legitimate suspicion related to the intentionality [of the fires], which is under investigation," Boric said on Wednesday. At least 28 people have been arrested.

However, a series of factors explain the speed and intensity of the fires. First, there is climate change, the vehicle for a historic "mega-drought" in Chile which has been ongoing for about 13 years.

The drought is reflected in a historic rainfall deficit of 30% over the period 2010-2019, according to a report by Chile's Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2). In the last 50 years, maximum summer temperatures increased by 0.43°C per decade, the CR2 wrote in a note last week.

"All events with temperatures above 40°C have occurred in the last decade," it said. Regions afflicted by the fires were experiencing a heatwave with temperatures sometimes exceeding the 40°C threshold.

An alert for high temperature ran until Saturday for an area encompassing more than 900 km from North to South, from the Coquimbo region to Nuble.

Pine and eucalyptus trees as far as the eye can see

"There is also a strong accumulation of combustible material," Miguel Castillo, a forest engineer at the University of Chile said. Pine and eucalyptus trees are planted as far as the eye can see by the wood industry.

An engine for the regional economy, the idea was encouraged under Chile's military dictatorship (1973-1990). The industry is confronted with territorial conflicts involving part of the indigenous Mapuche population who claim ancestral lands held by forest owners.

In 2022, exports from the wood sector amounted to €6.5 billion according to the Chilean Forestry Institute, amounting to more than 111,000 jobs.

However, pine and eucalyptus are exotic trees that require more water than endemic species. They dry up the waterways that could serve as a natural barrier to the flames. "With high heat, they also tend to dry out faster than endemic trees. Therefore, they burn more and facilitate the spread of fires, a phenomenon also reinforced by their density," Rondanelli said.

The winds that blew over the region over the past few days contributed to the spread of the fires. "It is absolutely necessary to rethink the productive system by planting endemic trees. After the great fires of 2017, where there were endemic trees, pine and eucalyptus trees were planted instead," said Rondanelli.

Despite a smaller amount of hectares burned this time (the great fires of 2017 resulted in the death of 11) the country is mourning more deaths. "This is related to the number of outbreaks which are more numerous and scattered. This represents a greater challenge in terms of coordination, prioritization and access to areas to be evacuated," Castillo said.

The proximity of tree plantations to residential areas is also blamed for the higher number of deaths. In 2014, a proposal to modify forest regulation was presented by Alejandro Navarro who was then a leftwing senator of the Biobio region.

It provided for a minimum distance of 500 meters between plantations and residential areas or roads. In 2015, another parliamentary initiative encompassing the previous text also proposed banning new plantations of "highly combustible" species. This time, the legislation did not go through.

As the smoke from the fires reaches as far as the capital, Santiago, CO2 emissions generated by the fires are triggering concern. With the risk of more episodes of this magnitude in the future, the fires "may become one of the most important causes of greenhouse gas emissions in the country," according to the CR2.

In 2017, fires alone accounted for 90% of total emissions in a baseline year, 2016. They also pose a great threat to biodiversity, Maisa Rojas, minister for the environment, said.

Faced with the emergency, the Chilean government announced a series of aid mechanisms destined for the residents of the affected regions. On Friday, authorities ordered a curfew to prevent possible looting of evacuated homes.

Germán & Co

"The time will come when President Boric will have to choose between reform or re-foundation".

This Chilean sociologist, with a communist past and key advisor to the government of socialist Ricardo Lagos, says that a change of course in Latin America is indispensable "if we want to influence the 21st century".

El País by ROCÍO MONTES

Santiago de Chile - 11 Feb 2023 

Ernesto Ottone (Valparaíso, 1948) was among those who rejected the proposal for a new Constitution in the plebiscite on 4 September, like 62% of Chileans. "I reject it because I am convinced that it is the best way for a good Constitution", he told EL PAÍS before the referendum. With a communist past until the end of the 1970s - he was a world leader of his youth - the sociologist was a key strategic adviser to the government of the socialist Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006). He is an intellectual who looks to the public rather than a politician who looks to books. In his latest publication, Crónica de una odisea, del estallido social al estallido de las urnas, he describes the last three years in Chile as a "turbulent, unstable and tense period, very different from the one that has accompanied the country's progress since the return to democracy". In this interview, conducted in his flat in Providencia, in the Chilean capital, in the middle of summer with the city empty, he analyses the political scene facing Chile in 2023.

Question: What has happened in Chile since the plebiscite of 4 September, when 62% of voters rejected the proposed new constitution?

Answer. September 4 was not a triumph of conservatism over change, as was perceived by some observers outside the country, but it was the return of history. The compulsory vote showed a more complete Chile, not only that of the mobilised forces, and produced a result that stunned the government.

Q. What was the text that was rejected like?

A. The text that the constitutional convention presented to the plebiscite was a mixture of constitutional text and partisan political programme, which hurt representative democracy and the balance of power and which artificially exacerbated the issue of nationalities. This was not accepted by Chileans who want a new constitution that reflects a social, modern, democratic and inclusive state. Chileans do not want to replace the authoritarian traces of the past with new authoritarian dangers.

Q. How did President Boric's government, which was for the alternative that lost, stand after the referendum?

A. President Boric weakened his authority and his role as head of state by merging with that project. Partly because he partially shared it, I believe, and partly under pressure from the ruling group around him, which in truth represents only a minority sector, I fear, of those who brought him to the government, because the rest were reformist voters who voted against the extreme right candidate in the 2021 presidential elections. Today the government has included sectors of the traditional left, which occupy important positions that help to contain the excesses of doctrinarism and imperfection, although they do not always succeed in doing so.

Q. Chile is making a second attempt at a new constitution. Do you think this is necessary?

A. Yes, of course. Chileans rejected a text, not the idea of a new Constitution that has greater legitimacy, that responds to the challenges of the 21st century, that frames a social state and that protects individual liberties and encourages greater inclusiveness. I believe that the newly initiated new process, with greater institutional thickness, will be able to achieve a Constitution acceptable to the vast majority of the country.

Q. 2023 will be a difficult year for Chile, with an economic recession...

A. The situation is difficult for this year, not only in Chile, but in the whole world. It will require a lot of political capacity, you can't keep taking one step in one direction and another in the opposite direction. The time will come when President Boric will have to choose between reform or refoundation.

Q. The president has very high disapproval, 66%, according to the latest Cadem. How do you overcome this bad moment of popularity?

A. He will only be able to recover from his high level of disapproval if his ability to govern improves, if he generates broad agreements on economic and social problems in the fight against crime, on changing the tax system and improving the pension system, on the functioning of the education and health systems in a non-traumatic way. In short, if it is dominated by a state vocation that has so far appeared only intermittently.

Q. This year, Chile commemorates the 50th anniversary of the 1973 coup d'état. How do you see Chile on this date?

A. Chile has no room to increase its internal conflicts and generate a more polarised situation. The commemoration of the 1973 coup d'état should be read as a national decision never to repeat that tragedy. This requires first and foremost a well-functioning democracy. It must be commemorated in a sober, profound and historic way. The "never again" and the republican character that marked the 30th anniversary 20 years ago, in 2003, when Chile was moving forward in all areas, must be present.

Q. Are you one of those who believe that the far right is growing stronger in Chile and that it has presidential options?

A. For that to happen there would have to be a collapse of the traditional right and a predominance in its electorate of those who most yearn for authoritarianism. The rebirth of reformist centre and centre-left forces would have to fail and the more extreme sectors of the radical left would have to predominate. This could generate in the country a demand for authoritarianism at any price, led by the extreme right. I hope that this does not happen, that the gods do not blind the democrats. But to avoid such tendencies, realism, political generosity and deep democratic convictions are required.

Q. While this is happening in Chile, how do you, a sociologist who made a career in ECLAC, see the rest of Latin America?

A. Latin America is one of the regions hardest hit by this sad and fragmented phase of a globalisation in decline. There is no longer one dictatorship in Latin America, but three. There are countries with a strong democratic degradation, others with inconsistent democracies, within a short period of time there have been two attempted coups d'état and democratic institutions have been weakened in general.

Q. We are in a violent region...

A. We make up 8.6% of the world's population, but one third of the world's crimes - excluding war crimes - are committed in our region. After the end of the economic boom between 2003 and 2013, the economy began to fall, and the poverty and equality indicators, which had indicated progress in the right direction, began to go back in the wrong direction. This situation will be very difficult to reverse with the current economic situation. Citizen demands have no capacity to respond and the fragility of democracies is spreading.

Q. Are we facing a pendulum swing to the left, considering the sign of several Latin American governments?

A. There is the illusion of a pink tide, but it is very heterogeneous and probably volatile. In general, elections tend to be won by those in opposition. The danger of the spread of authoritarian populism of different signs is just around the corner. But this is not an inevitable fate as in the Greek tragedies. It does, however, require a gigantic effort.

Q. Where should this effort be focused?

A. Resuming economic growth, generating a productive transformation that adds value to our generous natural resource base. Modernising our states and democratic institutions, enhancing cooperation between the public, private and civil society sectors, and relaunching efforts to achieve greater levels of equality and poverty reduction by prioritising public policies and creating a progressive fiscal pact. Combat organised crime through coordinated intelligence, preventing the development of corruption and better management of mega-cities. Overcoming the region's invisibility in the world, the absence of a single voice to put forward its interests, and avoiding the ideologisation of regional organisations that are often linked to discourses of the past that are alien to the current reality.

Q. Do you see any room for optimism?

A. Despite all its problems, Latin America has much to contribute in a troubled world. The far West, as Alain Rouquié called it, has medium development, decisive environmental resources in relation to climate change and natural resources that can contribute exponentially to the information age and digitalisation. Making them count requires a long view and a strategic capacity that we see little of in our rulers at the moment. A change of course is essential if we want to make an impact in the 21st century.

---

Source: El País

Argentina will receive a million-dollar investment to facilitate the export of gas from Vaca Muerta to Brazil and Chile.

CAF - Development Bank of Latin America - will provide 540 million dollars for the construction of a gas pipeline network. Its vice-president, Christian Asinelli, defends the use of natural gas in the region as a "just transition energy".

El País by LORENA ARROYO

01 FEB 2023

For more than a decade, Vaca Muerta has represented a hope for Argentina's battered economy that has yet to materialise. The 30,000-kilometre field in Patagonia makes Argentina the country with the second largest shale gas resources in the world. But getting it out and transporting it has proved a complex task since exploitation began in 2012. Now, a new investment agreement has rekindled the hopes of those hoping for a definitive take-off of the field.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced last week that he had reached an agreement with CAF - Development Bank of Latin America* to finance a gas pipeline that will facilitate exports to Chile and Brazil. "It will be 540 million dollars to build the La Carlota-Tío Pujio gas pipeline, the Reversal del Norte and the compressor plants," the minister said on his Twitter account. The investment, which will be approved in March by CAF's board of directors, foresees the construction of kilometres of pipelines to transport gas from Vaca Muerta, in the west of the country, to Santa Fe, in the northeast. This, the minister said, would increase "the possibilities of gas export volumes" to neighbouring countries.

According to Reuters, with these works the country expects to be able to reverse the energy balance deficit of $5 billion recorded in 2022 and achieve a surplus of about $12 billion in 2025. "From the point of view of the country's productive activities, obviously developing the potential of Vaca Muerta is very important for the economy," acknowledged CAF vice-president Christian Asinelli in an interview with América Futura. The official stresses that the work to be financed by the multilateral organisation will be beneficial for the region's energy integration and will reduce Argentina's dependence on current imports of Bolivian gas.

A "just transition energy"

"With this infrastructure work, what is being done is to connect the gas from Vaca Muerta with a section of a gas pipeline that will allow gas to be taken from the south of the country to the north," he explains. In addition, "with a series of investments in five gas conversion plants", it will be possible to link these gas pipelines with Bolivia to send gas to Brazil, on the one hand, and to the north of Chile, on the other. According to his estimates, if everything goes according to plan, the construction of 132 kilometres of pipelines and the reconversion of the five plants that would allow gas to be transferred from northern Argentina to Bolivia could be ready in less than two years.

Faced with criticism from some sectors that natural gas is not a clean energy - since it emits methane, one of the gases that contributes most to climate change - CAF defends its use as a "transition energy" towards a green matrix through fair processes that benefit the region's population. "For countries like Argentina, it is a fair transition energy," Asinelli points out. "For Latin America and the Caribbean, what we need is to look for spaces that improve, from an environmental point of view, but without forgetting the people, the needs, social growth and the reduction of poverty," he adds, pointing out that in the region there is a "different consensus than in Europe" on energy issues.

"Gas for us is a transitional energy that will help us to achieve the standards of the sustainable development goals, but through a process that is fair for our countries, where we can use our natural resources by lowering the amount of emissions, that is, by stopping using coal plants and using gas, which is clearly an energy that pollutes much less. It is not the ultimate goal, but it is the path that can lead us towards what we call a just transition, where the human and social aspects are not forgotten either," he adds.

Asinelli recognises that those who make public policies have to find a balance between benefiting populations, caring for people and making the right decisions to care for the environment, a task that, he says, "is sometimes not easy". In this sense, the CAF official stresses that the decision to invest in Vaca Muerta has been taken after analysing the previous environmental impact studies and that the disbursements will be made as the work progresses: "I believe that this process of using gas as a transition energy, if it is done well, will clearly bring more development, which is what we are looking for".

---

News round-up, Monday, February 13, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

We’re experiencing a mental health crisis. Approximately 15.5% of the global population is affected by mental illnesses, and those numbers are rising. Although there are many who require treatment, more than 50% of mental illnesses remain untreated. In the United States, one in five adults suffers from some form of mental illness. Every 40 seconds one person dies from suicide and for every adult who dies from suicide, there are more than 20 others who have attempted to end their life. The ramifications of this go beyond our families and cultures as mental health also has a tremendous economic impact for the cost of treatment as well as the loss of productivity.

Forbes by Bernard Marr

Despite all its problems, Latin America has much to contribute in a troubled world. The far West, as Alain Rouquié called it, has medium development, decisive environmental resources in relation to climate change and natural resources that can contribute exponentially to the information age and digitalisation. Making them count requires a long view and a strategic capacity that we see little of in our rulers at the moment. A change of course is essential if we want to make an impact in the 21st century.

Ernesto Ottone (Valparaíso, 1948) was among those who rejected the proposal for a new Constitution in the plebiscite on 4 September, like 62% of Chileans. "I reject it because I am convinced that it is the best way for a good Constitution", he told EL PAÍS before the referendum.

---

Most Read…

What’s Going On Up There? Theories but No Answers in Shootdowns of Mystery Craft.

The U.S. and Canada are investigating three unidentified flying objects shot down over North America in the past three days. Militaries have adjusted radars to try to spot more incursions.

NYT by Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Edward Wong

The countries warn the EU against an overhaul of the energy market in “crisis mode”.

The European Commission is drafting an overhaul of the EU’s electricity market rules with the aim of better cushioning consumer bills ahead of fossil fuel price spikes and avoiding a repeat of the surge in electricity wort sparked by cuts in Russia’s gas supplies last year.

Ukdaily.news by Mia Gordon

Chile faces largest wildfires since 2017

In DepthFires fueled by drought and heatwaves killed 24 and destroyed 373,000 hectares since February 1.

LE MONDE BY FLORA GENOUX (BUENOS AIRES (ARGENTINA) CORRESPONDENT)

"The time will come when President Boric will have to choose between reform or re-foundation".

This Chilean sociologist, with a communist past and key advisor to the government of socialist Ricardo Lagos, says that a change of course in Latin America is indispensable "if we want to influence the 21st century".

EL PAÍS BY ROCÍO MONTES

Argentina will receive a million-dollar investment to facilitate the export of gas from Vaca Muerta to Brazil and Chile.

CAF - Development Bank of Latin America - will provide 540 million dollars for the construction of a gas pipeline network. Its vice-president, Christian Asinelli, defends the use of natural gas in the region as a "just transition energy".

El País by LORENA ARROYO

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

The Incredible Ways Artificial Intelligence Is Now Used In Mental Health

Forbes by Bernard Marr

Stigma

Stereotypes surrounding those with mental illnesses prevent patients from seeking the help they need. According to a World Health Organization study, 30 to 80 percent of those with mental health issues don’t seek treatment. It’s common to hear stereotypes about people with mental health issues like they’re dangerous, incompetent, or responsible for their illness. 

We’re experiencing a mental health crisis. Approximately 15.5% of the global population is affected by mental illnesses, and those numbers are rising. Although there are many who require treatment, more than 50% of mental illnesses remain untreated. In the United States, one in five adults suffers from some form of mental illness. Every 40 seconds one person dies from suicide and for every adult who dies from suicide, there are more than 20 others who have attempted to end their life. The ramifications of this go beyond our families and cultures as mental health also has a tremendous economic impact for the cost of treatment as well as the loss of productivity.

The critical shortfall of psychiatrists and other mental health specialists to provide treatment exacerbates this crisis. In fact, nearly 40% of Americans live where there is a shortage of mental health professionals; 60% of U.S. counties don’t have a psychiatrist. Those that do have access to mental health professionals often forgo treatment because they can’t afford it. Those with depression visit primary care physicians an average of five times a year versus three times for those who don’t have it. Others seek help in emergency rooms which are more expensive. More than $201 billion is spent on mental health annually making mental health the most expensive part of our healthcare system after knocking out heart conditions for the honor.

Examples of current uses of AI in mental health

Researchers are testing different ways that artificial intelligence can help screen, diagnose and treat mental illness.

Researchers from the World Well-Being Project (WWBP) analyzed social media with an AI algorithm to pick out linguistic cues that might predict depression. It turns out that those suffering from depression express themselves on social media in ways that those dealing with other chronic conditions do not such as mentions of loneliness and using words such as "feelings," "I" and "me." The team's findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, but after analyzing half a million Facebook posts from people who consented to provide their Facebook status updates and medical records, they were able to identify depression-associated language markers. What the researchers found was that linguistic markers could predict depression up to three months before the person receives a formal diagnosis. Other researchers use technology to explore the way facial expressions, enunciation of words and tone and language could indicate suicide risk.

In addition to researchers, there are several companies using artificial intelligence to help tackle the mental health crisis. Quartet's platform flags possible mental conditions and can refer patients to a provider or a computerized cognitive behavioral therapy program. Ginger’s contribution is a chat application used by employers that provides direct counseling services to employees. Its algorithms analyze the words someone uses and then relies on its training from more than 2 billion behavioral data samples, 45 million chat messages and 2 million clinical assessments to provide a recommendation. The CompanionMX system has an app that allows patients being treated with depression, bipolar disorders, and other conditions to create an audio log where they can talk about how they are feeling. The AI system analyzes the recording as well as looks for changes in behavior for proactive mental health monitoring. Bark, a parental control phone tracker app, monitors major messaging and social media platforms to look for signs of cyberbullying, depression, suicidal thoughts and sexting on a child’s phone.

These are just a few of the innovative solutions that support mental health.

4 Benefits of using AI to help solve the mental health crisis

There are several reasons why AI could be a powerful tool to help us solve the mental health crisis. Here are four benefits:

1.      Support mental health professionals

As it does for many industries, AI can help support mental health professionals in doing their jobs. Algorithms can analyze data much faster than humans, can suggest possible treatments, monitor a patient’s progress and alert the human professional to any concerns. In many cases, AI and a human clinician would work together.

1.      24/7 access

Due to the lack of human mental health professionals, it can take months to get an appointment. If patients live in an area without enough mental health professionals, their wait will be even longer. AI provides a tool that an individual can access all the time, 24/7 without waiting for an appointment.

1.      Not expensive

The cost of care prohibits some individuals from seeking help. Artificial intelligent tools could offer a more accessible solution.

1.      Comfort talking to a bot

While it might take some people time to feel comfortable talking to a bot, the anonymity of an AI algorithm can be positive. What might be difficult to share with a therapist in person is easier for some to disclose to a bot.

Obstacles to overcome

While there is great promise for using AI to help the current mental health crisis, there are still obstacles to overcome. There are significant privacy concerns as well as making people comfortable and willing to accept various levels of being monitored in their day-to-day lives. In addition, there is no regulation for these applications, so it is advised that any app be used in conjunction with a mental health professional. As AI tools are created, it is essential that they are protocols in place to make them safe and effective and built and trained with a diverse data set, so they aren't biased toward a particular population.

Overall, AI has the promise to provide critical resources we need to overcome our mental health crisis.

---

Ernesto Cardenal’s Prayer for Marilyn Monroe

She hungered for love and we offered her tranquilizers.
For her despair, because we’re not saints psychoanalysis was recommended to her...

One of Latin America’s most acclaimed poets, he wrote verses that offered a cosmic fusion of spirituality, politics, science and history, while appearing at frequent lectures and readings that made him a kind of international ambassador for Nicaragua.

Father Cardenal drew few boundaries between his callings. The son of a wealthy Nicaraguan family, he fought with a revolutionary group in his late 20s, then emerged as a leading proponent of liberation theology, which emphasizes Jesus’s message to the poor and oppressed.

The washington post By Harrison Smith

March 2, 2020

Ernesto Cardenal’s Prayer for Marilyn Monroe

Lord

receive this young woman known around the world as Marilyn Monroe
although that wasn’t her real name
(but You know her real name, the name of the orphan raped at the age of 6
and the shopgirl who at 16 had tried to kill herself)
who now comes before You without any makeup
without her Press Agent
without photographers and without autograph hounds,
alone like an astronaut facing night in space.

She dreamed when she was little that she was naked in a church
(according to the Time account)
before a prostrated crowd of people, their heads on the floor
and she had to walk on tiptoe so as not to step on their heads.
You know our dreams better than the psychiatrists.
Church, home, cave, all represent the security of the womb
but something else too …
The heads are her fans, that’s clear
(the mass of heads in the dark under the beam of light).
But the temple isn’t the studios of 20th Century-Fox.
The temple—of marble and gold—is the temple of her body
in which the Son of Man stands whip in hand
driving out the studio bosses of 20th Century-Fox
who made Your house of prayer a den of thieves.

Lord
in this world polluted with sin and radioactivity
You won’t blame it all on a shopgirl
who, like any other shopgirl, dreamed of being a star.
Her dream just became a reality (but like Technicolor’s reality).
She only acted according to the script we gave her
—the story of our own lives. And it was an absurd script.
Forgive her, Lord, and forgive us
for our 20th Century
for this Colossal Super-Production on which we all have worked.
She hungered for love and we offered her tranquilizers.
For her despair, because we’re not saints
psychoanalysis was recommended to her.
Remember, Lord, her growing fear of the camera
and her hatred of makeup—insisting on fresh makeup for each scene—
and how the terror kept building up in her
and making her late to the studios.

Like any other shopgirl
she dreamed of being a star.
And her life was unreal like a dream that a psychiatrist interprets and files.

Her romances were a kiss with closed eyes
and when she opened them
she realized she had been under floodlights
as they killed the floodlights!
and they took down the two walls of the room (it was a movie set)
while the Director left with his scriptbook
because the scene had been shot.
Or like a cruise on a yacht, a kiss in Singapore, a dance in Rio
the reception at the mansion of the Duke and Duchess of Windsor
all viewed in a poor apartment’s tiny living room.

The film ended without the final kiss.
She was found dead in her bed with her hand on the phone.
And the detectives never learned who she was going to call.
She was
like someone who had dialed the number of the only friendly voice
and only heard the voice of a recording that says: WRONG NUMBER.
Or like someone who had been wounded by gangsters
reaching for a disconnected phone.

Lord
whoever it might have been that she was going to call
and didn’t call (and maybe it was no one
or Someone whose number isn’t in the Los Angeles phonebook)
You answer that telephone!

(Translated from the Spanish by Jonathan Cohen)

---

The Pentagon and intelligence agencies have intensified their study of unexplained incidents near military bases in recent years.

Image: Germán & Co

What’s Going On Up There? Theories but No Answers in Shootdowns of Mystery Craft.

The U.S. and Canada are investigating three unidentified flying objects shot down over North America in the past three days. Militaries have adjusted radars to try to spot more incursions.

NYT by Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Edward Wong

Published Feb. 12, 2023

WASHINGTON — If the truth is out there, it certainly is not apparent yet.

Pentagon and intelligence officials are trying to make sense of three unidentified flying objects over Alaska, Canada and Michigan that U.S. fighter jets shot down with missiles on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The latest turn in the aerial show taking place in the skies above North America comes after a helter-skelter weekend involving what at times seemed like an invasion of unidentified flying objects.

The latest object had first been spotted on Saturday over Montana, initially sparking debate over whether it even existed. On Saturday, military officials detected a radar blip over Montana, which then disappeared, leading them to conclude it was an anomaly. Then a blip appeared Sunday over Montana, then Wisconsin and Michigan. Once military officials obtained visual confirmation, they ordered an F-16 to shoot it down over Lake Huron.

There are two big questions around the episodes: What were the craft? And why does the United States appear to be seeing more suddenly, and shooting down more?

There are no answers to the first question yet. American officials do not know what the objects were, much less their purpose or who sent them.

For the second, it is not clear if there are suddenly more objects. But what is certain is that in the wake of the recent incursion by a Chinese spy balloon, the U.S. and Canadian militaries are hypervigilant in flagging some objects that might previously have been allowed to pass.

After the transit of the spy balloon this month, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, adjusted its radar system to make it more sensitive. As a result, the number of objects it detected increased sharply. In other words, NORAD is picking up more incursions because it is looking for them, spurred on by the heightened awareness caused by the furor over the spy balloon, which floated over the continental United States for a week before an F-22 shot it down on Feb. 4.

“We have been more closely scrutinizing our airspace at these altitudes, including enhancing our radar, which may at least partly explain the increase in objects that we’ve detected over the past week,” Melissa Dalton, the assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs, said at a news conference on Sunday evening.

American officials have not completely discounted theories that there could also be more objects, period. Some officials theorize that the objects could be from China, or another foreign power, and may be aimed at testing detection abilities after the spy balloon.

The object spotted approaching Lake Huron on Sunday was flying at 20,000 feet and presented a potential threat to civil aviation, so President Biden ordered it shot down, U.S. officials said. It had an octagonal structure with strings hanging off but had no discernible payload, they added.

U.S. and Canadian officials say the objects shot down on Friday and Saturday were also flying lower than the spy balloon, posing a greater danger to civilian aircraft, which prompted leaders to order them destroyed. Those two objects were flying over parts of Alaska and the Yukon that have few residents, and the third object downed on Sunday was over water, so risks posed by falling debris were minimal, they said.

The spy balloon that drifted across the United States flew much higher, at 60,000 feet, and did not pose a danger to aircraft. But any falling debris could have hit people on the ground, Pentagon officials said.

Throughout the weekend, officials said they were still trying to determine what the three objects were. The first, a Defense Department official said, is most likely not a balloon — and it broke into pieces after it was shot down on Friday. Saturday’s object was described by Canadian authorities as cylindrical, and American officials say it is more likely it was a balloon of some kind. Sunday’s object appeared unlikely to be a balloon, one official said.

NORAD radar tracked the first two objects for at least 12 hours before they were shot down. But Defense Department officials have never said whether they picked the objects up on radar before they neared American airspace. One official said it is unclear what keeps the objects aloft.

U.S. officials said they are reviewing video and other sensor readings collected by the American pilots who observed the objects before their destruction. But the exact nature of the objects, where they are from and what they were intended for will not be confirmed until the F.B.I. and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have the chance to thoroughly examine the debris, officials said.

Asked during a news conference on Sunday whether he had ruled out extraterrestrial origins, Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, the commander of the Air Force’s Northern Command, said, “I haven’t ruled out anything at this point.” But in interviews Sunday, national security officials discounted any thoughts that what the Air Force shot out of the sky represented any sort of alien visitors. No one, one senior official said, thinks these things are anything other than devices fashioned here on Earth.

Luis Elizondo, the military intelligence officer who ran the Pentagon’s U.F.O. program until 2017, concurred. But he said that the Biden administration must find a way to balance vigilance over what is going on in the skies above America against “chasing our tail” whenever something unknown shows up — a tough task, he said.

For years, adversaries have sent low-tech gadgets into the skies above the United States, Mr. Elizondo said.

“What’s happening now is you have low-end technology being used to harass America,” he said in an interview. “It is a high-impact, low-cost way for China to do this, and the more you look up in the sky, the more you will see.”

At the urging of Congress, the Pentagon and intelligence agencies have intensified their study of unexplained incidents near military bases in recent years. The studies on what the intelligence community calls unidentified aerial phenomena have pinpointed previously undetected efforts to conduct surveillance on American military exercises and bases. Many of those unexplained incidents have been balloons, and some of them are now believed to be attempted surveillance activity by China or other powers, both using balloons and surveillance drones.

In a public report released last month, the intelligence community said that of 366 unexplained incidents, 163 were later identified as balloons. A related classified document whose findings were reported this month by The New York Times said at least two incidents at U.S. military bases could be examples of advanced aerial technology, possibly developed by China.

“We can now assess flight patterns and trajectory in a much more scientific way,” said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a New York Democrat who wrote the recent legislation mandating greater internal military reporting and analysis of aerial phenomena, leading to more documentation of sightings. “You need to know who’s using the technology and what it is.”

The most alarming theory under consideration by some U.S. officials is that the objects are sent by China or another power in an attempt to learn more about American radar or early warning systems.

A senior administration official said one theory — and the person stressed that it is just a theory — is that China or Russia sent the objects to test American intelligence-gathering capabilities. They could be sent to learn both how quickly the United States becomes aware of an intrusion and how quickly the military can respond to such an incursion, the official said.

American officials are united in their belief that the spy balloon that transited the United States was a Chinese machine meant to conduct surveillance on American military bases. Officials said it was unclear if China had complete control of the balloon during its whole journey. But officials said China did have at least a limited ability to steer it, and the balloon maneuvered on Feb. 3 before it was shot down the next day.

Another American official said the Chinese spy balloon was equipped with a self-destruct mechanism, but Beijing did not use it, a potential sign that Chinese officials wanted to continue to collect intelligence, even after it was discovered.

The disclosure of the balloon by the Pentagon on Feb. 2 led to a public diplomatic crisis between China and the United States. Beijing said it had the right to respond further. On Sunday, a Chinese newspaper reported that local maritime authorities in Shandong Province on the east coast had spotted an “unidentified flying object” in waters by the city of Rizhao and were preparing to shoot it down. State-run news organizations reposted the information.

If any of the devices destroyed in North America over the past three days were Chinese, it would amount to a major provocation on the heels of the spy balloon, one reason some officials said not to jump to the conclusion that the objects are surveillance devices sent from Beijing.

Officials in Beijing seem to want to limit tensions over the spy balloon, suggesting to some U.S. officials that the latest objects are less likely to be deliberate Chinese provocations or tests.

Pentagon officials have been raising flags about deficiencies in North America’s aging warning systems, radar and sensors.

Speaking last year at the Aspen Security Conference in Colorado, General VanHerck said that the United States had struggled to detect certain intrusions, what he called “domain awareness challenges.” General VanHerck said the NORAD radars could not adequately detect hypersonics and other threats.

But, he also said, the United States and Canada were investing in new over-the-horizon radar to better identify potential threats, as well as artificial intelligence systems to help pick out possible intrusions.

“I’m very encouraged with where we’re going,” General VanHerck said last July, “but we still have some challenges to work on.”

---

Image: Germán & Co

The countries warn the EU against an overhaul of the energy market in “crisis mode”.

Ukdaily.news by Mia Gordon

February 13, 2023

The European Commission is drafting an overhaul of the EU’s electricity market rules with the aim of better cushioning consumer bills ahead of fossil fuel price spikes and avoiding a repeat of the surge in electricity wort sparked by cuts in Russia’s gas supplies last year.

The seven countries, led by Denmark, said in a letter that the existing market design in Europe had encouraged lower electricity prices for years, helped expand renewable energy and ensured that enough electricity was produced to meet demand and avoid shortages.

“We must resist the temptation to kill the golden goose that has been our single market for electricity for the past decade,” said Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s energy minister.

Countries said there was some room for improvement, especially given the surge in electricity costs over the past year. However, any changes must ensure the market continues to function and incentivize massive investments in renewable energy, they said.

“Any reform that goes beyond targeted adjustments to the existing framework should be underpinned by an in-depth impact assessment and not adopted in crisis mode,” reads the letter to the Commission, seen by Reuters.

Other countries, including Spain and France, are pursuing deeper reforms. Spain has proposed a switch to longer-term fixed price contracts for power plants to try to limit price spikes.

The seven countries said in their letter that related schemes – such as Contracts for Difference (CfDs) – could play a role, but they should be voluntary, focused on new renewable energy and still “responsive” to the market.

Electricity industry lobby group Eurelectric has also warned against making CFDs mandatory as it could undermine competition in the electricity market and discourage investors.

In their letter, the seven countries supported an idea already discussed by the Commission to make it easier for consumers to choose between electricity contracts with fluctuating and fixed prices.

However, they pushed back another Commission proposal to extend a temporary EU measure reclaiming windfall revenues from non-gas generators.

“That could jeopardize investor confidence in the investments needed,” the countries said in the letter, citing EU estimates that hundreds of billions of euros in renewable energy investments are needed annually to help countries convert from Russian fossil fuels get off.

---

The fire in the vicinity of the city of Dichato, in the south of Chile, on February 10, 2023.

Image: Le Monde by JAVIER TORRES / AFP

Chile faces largest wildfires since 2017

Le Monde by Flora Genoux (Buenos Aires (Argentina) correspondent)

Published on February 12, 2023 

In DepthFires fueled by drought and heatwaves killed 24 and destroyed 373,000 hectares since February 1.

Helpless firefighters standing in front of a wall of flames, inhabitants trying to smother the blaze with buckets of water, a line of fire, visible from the sky, advancing relentlessly over the forest... The violent fires that have been raging in Chile since February 1, in the middle of the southern summer, are delivering their share of apocalyptic images.

The so-called south-central region of the country – the provinces of Maule, Nuble, Biobio and Araucania, located some 280 km South of Santiago – saw thousands of hectares destroyed.

The toll as of Friday, February 10, stood at 24 dead, 1,250 homes wrecked and more than 2,000 being taken care of by health services. In total, more than 373,000 hectares were blown by the disaster. The country is witnessing the worst fires since 2017 during which 467,000 hectares disappeared.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric spoke earlier this week of "very difficult days" while the fires had already been active for a week. He called for the cooperation of all institutions including the private sector.

"In five days, we are seeing a burned area equivalent to two years of fire," Carolina Toha, minister of the interior, said on Monday. This week, more than 5,600 Chilean firefighters continued to fight the flames, with the support of international organizations.

Argentina, Mexico, but also Spain or the United States sent material and human rescue teams. France announced on Tuesday it was sending 80 firemen and rescue workers. The day before, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Twitter: "The Chilean people can count on the support of France to fight against this plague."

The European Union also announced it was sending over firefighters, doctors and experts. "No matter how many planes or how much money is dedicated to fighting the fires, they have become uncontrollable," Roberto Rondanelli, a meteorologist at the University of Chile, said. On Friday, 321 fires were still active. The experts are clear: The origin of the fires is above all human, whether criminal or accidental. "There is a legitimate suspicion related to the intentionality [of the fires], which is under investigation," Boric said on Wednesday. At least 28 people have been arrested.

However, a series of factors explain the speed and intensity of the fires. First, there is climate change, the vehicle for a historic "mega-drought" in Chile which has been ongoing for about 13 years.

The drought is reflected in a historic rainfall deficit of 30% over the period 2010-2019, according to a report by Chile's Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR2). In the last 50 years, maximum summer temperatures increased by 0.43°C per decade, the CR2 wrote in a note last week.

"All events with temperatures above 40°C have occurred in the last decade," it said. Regions afflicted by the fires were experiencing a heatwave with temperatures sometimes exceeding the 40°C threshold.

An alert for high temperature ran until Saturday for an area encompassing more than 900 km from North to South, from the Coquimbo region to Nuble.

Pine and eucalyptus trees as far as the eye can see

"There is also a strong accumulation of combustible material," Miguel Castillo, a forest engineer at the University of Chile said. Pine and eucalyptus trees are planted as far as the eye can see by the wood industry.

An engine for the regional economy, the idea was encouraged under Chile's military dictatorship (1973-1990). The industry is confronted with territorial conflicts involving part of the indigenous Mapuche population who claim ancestral lands held by forest owners.

In 2022, exports from the wood sector amounted to €6.5 billion according to the Chilean Forestry Institute, amounting to more than 111,000 jobs.

However, pine and eucalyptus are exotic trees that require more water than endemic species. They dry up the waterways that could serve as a natural barrier to the flames. "With high heat, they also tend to dry out faster than endemic trees. Therefore, they burn more and facilitate the spread of fires, a phenomenon also reinforced by their density," Rondanelli said.

The winds that blew over the region over the past few days contributed to the spread of the fires. "It is absolutely necessary to rethink the productive system by planting endemic trees. After the great fires of 2017, where there were endemic trees, pine and eucalyptus trees were planted instead," said Rondanelli.

Despite a smaller amount of hectares burned this time (the great fires of 2017 resulted in the death of 11) the country is mourning more deaths. "This is related to the number of outbreaks which are more numerous and scattered. This represents a greater challenge in terms of coordination, prioritization and access to areas to be evacuated," Castillo said.

The proximity of tree plantations to residential areas is also blamed for the higher number of deaths. In 2014, a proposal to modify forest regulation was presented by Alejandro Navarro who was then a leftwing senator of the Biobio region.

It provided for a minimum distance of 500 meters between plantations and residential areas or roads. In 2015, another parliamentary initiative encompassing the previous text also proposed banning new plantations of "highly combustible" species. This time, the legislation did not go through.

As the smoke from the fires reaches as far as the capital, Santiago, CO2 emissions generated by the fires are triggering concern. With the risk of more episodes of this magnitude in the future, the fires "may become one of the most important causes of greenhouse gas emissions in the country," according to the CR2.

In 2017, fires alone accounted for 90% of total emissions in a baseline year, 2016. They also pose a great threat to biodiversity, Maisa Rojas, minister for the environment, said.

Faced with the emergency, the Chilean government announced a series of aid mechanisms destined for the residents of the affected regions. On Friday, authorities ordered a curfew to prevent possible looting of evacuated homes.

Germán & Co

"The time will come when President Boric will have to choose between reform or re-foundation".

This Chilean sociologist, with a communist past and key advisor to the government of socialist Ricardo Lagos, says that a change of course in Latin America is indispensable "if we want to influence the 21st century".

El País by ROCÍO MONTES

Santiago de Chile - 11 Feb 2023 

Ernesto Ottone (Valparaíso, 1948) was among those who rejected the proposal for a new Constitution in the plebiscite on 4 September, like 62% of Chileans. "I reject it because I am convinced that it is the best way for a good Constitution", he told EL PAÍS before the referendum. With a communist past until the end of the 1970s - he was a world leader of his youth - the sociologist was a key strategic adviser to the government of the socialist Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006). He is an intellectual who looks to the public rather than a politician who looks to books. In his latest publication, Crónica de una odisea, del estallido social al estallido de las urnas, he describes the last three years in Chile as a "turbulent, unstable and tense period, very different from the one that has accompanied the country's progress since the return to democracy". In this interview, conducted in his flat in Providencia, in the Chilean capital, in the middle of summer with the city empty, he analyses the political scene facing Chile in 2023.

Question: What has happened in Chile since the plebiscite of 4 September, when 62% of voters rejected the proposed new constitution?

Answer. September 4 was not a triumph of conservatism over change, as was perceived by some observers outside the country, but it was the return of history. The compulsory vote showed a more complete Chile, not only that of the mobilised forces, and produced a result that stunned the government.

Q. What was the text that was rejected like?

A. The text that the constitutional convention presented to the plebiscite was a mixture of constitutional text and partisan political programme, which hurt representative democracy and the balance of power and which artificially exacerbated the issue of nationalities. This was not accepted by Chileans who want a new constitution that reflects a social, modern, democratic and inclusive state. Chileans do not want to replace the authoritarian traces of the past with new authoritarian dangers.

Q. How did President Boric's government, which was for the alternative that lost, stand after the referendum?

A. President Boric weakened his authority and his role as head of state by merging with that project. Partly because he partially shared it, I believe, and partly under pressure from the ruling group around him, which in truth represents only a minority sector, I fear, of those who brought him to the government, because the rest were reformist voters who voted against the extreme right candidate in the 2021 presidential elections. Today the government has included sectors of the traditional left, which occupy important positions that help to contain the excesses of doctrinarism and imperfection, although they do not always succeed in doing so.

Q. Chile is making a second attempt at a new constitution. Do you think this is necessary?

A. Yes, of course. Chileans rejected a text, not the idea of a new Constitution that has greater legitimacy, that responds to the challenges of the 21st century, that frames a social state and that protects individual liberties and encourages greater inclusiveness. I believe that the newly initiated new process, with greater institutional thickness, will be able to achieve a Constitution acceptable to the vast majority of the country.

Q. 2023 will be a difficult year for Chile, with an economic recession...

A. The situation is difficult for this year, not only in Chile, but in the whole world. It will require a lot of political capacity, you can't keep taking one step in one direction and another in the opposite direction. The time will come when President Boric will have to choose between reform or refoundation.

Q. The president has very high disapproval, 66%, according to the latest Cadem. How do you overcome this bad moment of popularity?

A. He will only be able to recover from his high level of disapproval if his ability to govern improves, if he generates broad agreements on economic and social problems in the fight against crime, on changing the tax system and improving the pension system, on the functioning of the education and health systems in a non-traumatic way. In short, if it is dominated by a state vocation that has so far appeared only intermittently.

Q. This year, Chile commemorates the 50th anniversary of the 1973 coup d'état. How do you see Chile on this date?

A. Chile has no room to increase its internal conflicts and generate a more polarised situation. The commemoration of the 1973 coup d'état should be read as a national decision never to repeat that tragedy. This requires first and foremost a well-functioning democracy. It must be commemorated in a sober, profound and historic way. The "never again" and the republican character that marked the 30th anniversary 20 years ago, in 2003, when Chile was moving forward in all areas, must be present.

Q. Are you one of those who believe that the far right is growing stronger in Chile and that it has presidential options?

A. For that to happen there would have to be a collapse of the traditional right and a predominance in its electorate of those who most yearn for authoritarianism. The rebirth of reformist centre and centre-left forces would have to fail and the more extreme sectors of the radical left would have to predominate. This could generate in the country a demand for authoritarianism at any price, led by the extreme right. I hope that this does not happen, that the gods do not blind the democrats. But to avoid such tendencies, realism, political generosity and deep democratic convictions are required.

Q. While this is happening in Chile, how do you, a sociologist who made a career in ECLAC, see the rest of Latin America?

A. Latin America is one of the regions hardest hit by this sad and fragmented phase of a globalisation in decline. There is no longer one dictatorship in Latin America, but three. There are countries with a strong democratic degradation, others with inconsistent democracies, within a short period of time there have been two attempted coups d'état and democratic institutions have been weakened in general.

Q. We are in a violent region...

A. We make up 8.6% of the world's population, but one third of the world's crimes - excluding war crimes - are committed in our region. After the end of the economic boom between 2003 and 2013, the economy began to fall, and the poverty and equality indicators, which had indicated progress in the right direction, began to go back in the wrong direction. This situation will be very difficult to reverse with the current economic situation. Citizen demands have no capacity to respond and the fragility of democracies is spreading.

Q. Are we facing a pendulum swing to the left, considering the sign of several Latin American governments?

A. There is the illusion of a pink tide, but it is very heterogeneous and probably volatile. In general, elections tend to be won by those in opposition. The danger of the spread of authoritarian populism of different signs is just around the corner. But this is not an inevitable fate as in the Greek tragedies. It does, however, require a gigantic effort.

Q. Where should this effort be focused?

A. Resuming economic growth, generating a productive transformation that adds value to our generous natural resource base. Modernising our states and democratic institutions, enhancing cooperation between the public, private and civil society sectors, and relaunching efforts to achieve greater levels of equality and poverty reduction by prioritising public policies and creating a progressive fiscal pact. Combat organised crime through coordinated intelligence, preventing the development of corruption and better management of mega-cities. Overcoming the region's invisibility in the world, the absence of a single voice to put forward its interests, and avoiding the ideologisation of regional organisations that are often linked to discourses of the past that are alien to the current reality.

Q. Do you see any room for optimism?

A. Despite all its problems, Latin America has much to contribute in a troubled world. The far West, as Alain Rouquié called it, has medium development, decisive environmental resources in relation to climate change and natural resources that can contribute exponentially to the information age and digitalisation. Making them count requires a long view and a strategic capacity that we see little of in our rulers at the moment. A change of course is essential if we want to make an impact in the 21st century.

---

Source: El País

Argentina will receive a million-dollar investment to facilitate the export of gas from Vaca Muerta to Brazil and Chile.

CAF - Development Bank of Latin America - will provide 540 million dollars for the construction of a gas pipeline network. Its vice-president, Christian Asinelli, defends the use of natural gas in the region as a "just transition energy".

El País by LORENA ARROYO

01 FEB 2023

For more than a decade, Vaca Muerta has represented a hope for Argentina's battered economy that has yet to materialise. The 30,000-kilometre field in Patagonia makes Argentina the country with the second largest shale gas resources in the world. But getting it out and transporting it has proved a complex task since exploitation began in 2012. Now, a new investment agreement has rekindled the hopes of those hoping for a definitive take-off of the field.

Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced last week that he had reached an agreement with CAF - Development Bank of Latin America* to finance a gas pipeline that will facilitate exports to Chile and Brazil. "It will be 540 million dollars to build the La Carlota-Tío Pujio gas pipeline, the Reversal del Norte and the compressor plants," the minister said on his Twitter account. The investment, which will be approved in March by CAF's board of directors, foresees the construction of kilometres of pipelines to transport gas from Vaca Muerta, in the west of the country, to Santa Fe, in the northeast. This, the minister said, would increase "the possibilities of gas export volumes" to neighbouring countries.

According to Reuters, with these works the country expects to be able to reverse the energy balance deficit of $5 billion recorded in 2022 and achieve a surplus of about $12 billion in 2025. "From the point of view of the country's productive activities, obviously developing the potential of Vaca Muerta is very important for the economy," acknowledged CAF vice-president Christian Asinelli in an interview with América Futura. The official stresses that the work to be financed by the multilateral organisation will be beneficial for the region's energy integration and will reduce Argentina's dependence on current imports of Bolivian gas.

A "just transition energy"

"With this infrastructure work, what is being done is to connect the gas from Vaca Muerta with a section of a gas pipeline that will allow gas to be taken from the south of the country to the north," he explains. In addition, "with a series of investments in five gas conversion plants", it will be possible to link these gas pipelines with Bolivia to send gas to Brazil, on the one hand, and to the north of Chile, on the other. According to his estimates, if everything goes according to plan, the construction of 132 kilometres of pipelines and the reconversion of the five plants that would allow gas to be transferred from northern Argentina to Bolivia could be ready in less than two years.

Faced with criticism from some sectors that natural gas is not a clean energy - since it emits methane, one of the gases that contributes most to climate change - CAF defends its use as a "transition energy" towards a green matrix through fair processes that benefit the region's population. "For countries like Argentina, it is a fair transition energy," Asinelli points out. "For Latin America and the Caribbean, what we need is to look for spaces that improve, from an environmental point of view, but without forgetting the people, the needs, social growth and the reduction of poverty," he adds, pointing out that in the region there is a "different consensus than in Europe" on energy issues.

"Gas for us is a transitional energy that will help us to achieve the standards of the sustainable development goals, but through a process that is fair for our countries, where we can use our natural resources by lowering the amount of emissions, that is, by stopping using coal plants and using gas, which is clearly an energy that pollutes much less. It is not the ultimate goal, but it is the path that can lead us towards what we call a just transition, where the human and social aspects are not forgotten either," he adds.

Asinelli recognises that those who make public policies have to find a balance between benefiting populations, caring for people and making the right decisions to care for the environment, a task that, he says, "is sometimes not easy". In this sense, the CAF official stresses that the decision to invest in Vaca Muerta has been taken after analysing the previous environmental impact studies and that the disbursements will be made as the work progresses: "I believe that this process of using gas as a transition energy, if it is done well, will clearly bring more development, which is what we are looking for".

---

News round-up, Friday, February 10, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

“We’re analyzing them to learn more about the surveillance program,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Wednesday. “We will pair that with what we learn from the balloon — what we learn from the balloon itself — with what we’ve gleaned based on our careful observation of the system when it was in our airspace, as the president directed his team to do.”

NYT

The AI opera “chasing waterfalls”, which premiered at the Dresden Semperoper on 03 September, raises questions about human existence in our digital age dominated by powerful technologies, algorithms and machines. True to the signs of our times, hardly any enlightening answers are given. But the complexity of the ambitious performance is surprising.

The Decoder

“I am wicked and scary with claws and teeth,” Vladimir Putin reportedly warned David Cameron when the then-British prime minister pressed him about the use of chemical weapons by Russia’s ally in Syria, Bashar al-Assad, and discussed how far Russia was prepared to go.

POLITICO EU

Most read…

The world’s first AI opera was co-written by GPT-3 – review

the-decoder.com by Sarah Schmitt

Sep 18, 2022

Chinese Balloon Had Tools to Collect Electronic Communications, U.S. Says

China’s surveillance balloons have flown over more than 40 countries and are directed by the Chinese military, the State Department said. The F.B.I. is studying debris.

NYT By Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes

Feb. 9, 2023

22 dead in Chile, as firefighters battle dozens of wildfires

CBS NEWS

FEBRUARY 8, 2023 / 7:30 PM / AP

Chile extended an emergency declaration to another region on Saturday as firefighters continued to struggle to control dozens of raging wildfires. At least 22 people have died in connection to the fires, and 554 have been injured, including 16 in serious condition, according to Interior Minister Carolina Tohá. 

Can Putin win?

A Russian assault is expected in Donbas, but all will depend on whether Russia has fixed major flaws in logistics and coordination.

POLITICO EU BY JAMIE DETTMER

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Nicaragua Frees Hundreds of Political Prisoners to the United States

The authoritarian government of Daniel Ortega handed over 222 prisoners as a way to signal a desire to restart relations with the United States, according to officials.

NYT by Maria Abi-Habib

Feb. 9, 2023

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Collaborates with free and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Image: The Decoder. The AI opera “chasing waterfalls”

The world’s first AI opera was co-written by GPT-3 – review

the-decoder.com by Sarah Schmitt

Sep 18, 2022

Sarah is a mathematician, programmer, and part-time philosopher. Her focus is on the ethical and societal future issues of Artificial Intelligence.

The AI opera “chasing waterfalls”, which premiered at the Dresden Semperoper on 03 September, raises questions about human existence in our digital age dominated by powerful technologies, algorithms and machines. True to the signs of our times, hardly any enlightening answers are given. But the complexity of the ambitious performance is surprising.

What happens when the boundary between man and machine becomes increasingly blurred? To what extent do the virtual world and automated decision-making processes already intervene in our everyday lives? When are we human, when are we externally controlled robots?

The cross-media opera production, which was created with the participation of several artist collectives, opera singers, musicians from the Sächsische Staatskapelle Dresden, and IT experts, revolves around such questions. According to the organizers, it is the first time in the world that artificial intelligence has taken on a leading role, composing, writing lyrics, and singing in real-time.

I am me, am I not?

“Not convinced you are not a robot. Please try again” – these are the words with which the protagonist, Norwegian soprano Eir Inderhaug, is greeted by her computer at the beginning of the opera piece when she logs on in the morning.

When she succeeds in proving her human identity to the machine only after countless desperate attempts, it becomes clear: This is about much more than a mere opera experiment with artificial intelligence, but about the existential question of our being today, about who determines who we are.

The rest of the event will show how far the interplay between the analog and virtual worlds has advanced today, and how this opens up a whole spectrum of personal identities for the individual.

After all, our digital manifestations, our self-created digital twins, are often extreme images of ourselves: more perfect, happier, and more successful, but also more emotional, curious, addicted, and volatile.

In the play, they are embodied by the questioning child, the deceptive appearance, the longing for success, the gnawing doubt, and the promise of happiness, each of which surrounds and interacts with the protagonist as independent figures.

As another digital identity, the AI itself is integrated into the stage set in the form of an eight-meter-high kinetic light sculpture made of LED panels, creating a mysteriously sparkling aesthetic.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Gaps in the single market must be plugged

Slow progress toward fully integrated energy and telecoms sectors has left member countries unequally vulnerable.

The energy crisis and the pandemic have exposed the weakness of fragmentary management which hinders the development of the EU single market

POLITICO EU BY ANTONIO MANGANELLI AND ANDREAS SCHWAB

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Antonio Manganelli is a professor Antitrust & Regulation at the LUMSA University of Rome. Andreas Schwab is a member of the European Parliament.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in October that Europe’s energy crisis can only be overcome through “solidarity.” But as of late, this solidarity has been in short supply.

Member countries have lacked a unified response to soaring energy prices and runaway inflation, which has been exacerbated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine. And despite the Chancellor’s call for solidarity, a common strategy to address the energy crisis remains a long way off.

In particular, Germany’s earlier decision to go it alone with a €200 billion gas price relief fund has sparked alarm in Brussels and other European capitals. And Berlin’s protracted opposition to the cap on gas prices that many European Union countries supported meant that an eleven-hour summit in late October yielded only a blurry roadmap, rather than a decisive agreement on how to lower energy prices causing economic pain across the bloc. Finally, after long discussions, they were able to reach a political agreement on the price cap at the end of last year, which will be applied from next week, starting February 15.

Both the energy crisis and the pandemic preceding it have exposed the weakness of fragmentary management, which has hindered the development of the European single market — one of the bloc’s greatest accomplishments. Indeed, they have illustrated how, even after 30 years, the single market has significant gaps that need to be plugged if the EU is to be crisis-proof.

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, there have been several calls for greater integration of European electricity markets, but both practical and political obstacles have left Europe with disparate energy systems linked by insufficient interconnectors. Meanwhile many member countries’ governments remain close to their state-owned energy companies and consider energy policy a matter of national security.

However, Putin’s invasion has now shone a spotlight on the perils of such fragmentation, and the EU urgently needs both short-term measures to tackle the energy emergency — such as a financial instrument similar to the SURE plan that cushioned the pandemic’s socioeconomic impact — as well as a Europe-wide buyers’ network for natural gas and a deeper integration of the European energy market.

The EU began, in part, as an energy alliance. Yet, it has made meager progress toward an energy union, which would generate many benefits — from increased energy independence to lower prices. Thus, full harmonization of the energy sector should be a priority. And without a coordinated effort at the supranational level, the risks are clear.

The European People’s Party group has, therefore, called for an integrated energy single market, as without it, there’s distortion competition — with consumers and businesses in wealthier member countries relatively shielded and those left behind made vulnerable. This means they could be tempted to follow Hungary’s example and sign their own agreements with Gazprom, thus rendering the EU’s sanctions policy completely ineffective.

The dangers of the energy crisis risk other side-effects as well, including growing household energy poverty, the deindustrialization of entire sectors, and increasing asymmetry and fragmentation across the markets in Europe.

All this could trigger geopolitical tensions — but it could destabilize Europe’s competitiveness too. And the experience of other critical European sectors — most notably telecoms — has amply shown how market fragmentation can damage economic competitiveness and resilience.

Other EU countries could be tempted to follow Hungary’s example and sign their own agreements with Gazprom, rendering the EU’s sanctions policy completely ineffective | Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images

When it comes to telecoms, the EU has, rightly, made the deployment of next-generation technologies a key priority, as achieving Brussels’ digitalization benchmarks could increase GDP per capita by over 7 percent across the EU. However, despite political will and public funding — on average, member countries have allocated 26.4 percent of their COVID-19 recovery funds toward accelerating the digital transition — the EU is still lagging dangerously behind faster-moving regions in Asia and North America.

The heart of the issue is the significant infrastructure investment required to achieve the EU’s ambitious digital objectives for 2030, and to cope with exponentially increasing demand in network traffic as well. Due to the significant pandemic-era surge in data traffic Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton was already forced to ask Big Tech firms to reduce the quality of their audio-visual services, so as to avoid the collapse of European networks.

It’s also quite clear by now that European telecom companies can’t afford the investment needed to meet the digital transformation targets set by Brussels — which is why large public EU and national funds have been devoted to support the deployment of high-capacity networks in most member countries.

Next to public intervention, however, it’s also necessary for each market player in the digital ecosystem play its role.

With this in mind, the Commission is soon opening a public consultation process, which will assess whether and how all the different market players contribute to the telecoms and digital infrastructure, in order to make coping with increasing user demand possible. This policy action should aim to shape an ecosystem where all play a proportionate and fair part in overcoming the infrastructure investment gap.

Furthermore, a point of particular concern is that European telecommunications companies are more financially strained than their overseas counterparts.

The core of the problem here is the fragmentation of the Continent’s telecoms market. Indeed, while the U.S. has only a few operators covering the entire telecommunication market, the EU has several dozen. For example, in the mobile sector, seven out of the nine largest European markets have at least four network-based competitors at the national level.

This unsustainable level of fragmentation has put Europe at a considerable disadvantage and has has weakened EU companies’ ability to invest. At €96.3 per capita, Europe’s telecom capital expenditure is clearly lower than what Asian giants (€115.4 in South Korea) and U.S. companies (€191.9) invest.

Moreover, this fragmentation has left EU telecom players unable to rival global digital tech companies and impeded their investment due to very intense price competition. In this regard, both competition policy — namely merger control — and ex-ante regulation should adapt to the changed circumstances.

As a similar scenario now unfolds in the energy sector, slow progress toward a fully integrated energy market has left member countries unequally vulnerable. And if we don’t seize the opportunity to plug the gaps in the single market, this disparity will only increase, the process of deindustrialization will accelerate and the EU will lag behind other major world economies.

---

Image: The Guardian

Chinese Balloon Had Tools to Collect Electronic Communications, U.S. Says

China’s surveillance balloons have flown over more than 40 countries and are directed by the Chinese military, the State Department said. The F.B.I. is studying debris.

NYT By Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes

Feb. 9, 2023

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration provided its most comprehensive description of the Chinese spy balloon that traversed the United States last week, saying on Thursday that the machine was part of a global surveillance fleet directed by China’s military and was capable of collecting electronic communications.

The conclusions were outlined in a State Department document, which said the U.S. military had dispatched Cold War-era U-2 spy planes to track and study the balloon before a fighter jet shot it down over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday.

China’s spy balloons have flown over more than 40 countries across five continents, the Biden administration said, and appear to be made by one or more companies that officially sell products to the Chinese military. That finding underscores questions among U.S. officials over the ties between some civilian-run enterprises in China and the country’s military, in what American officials call “military-civil fusion.”

The U.S. surveillance planes took images of the balloon while it was still in the air. Its visible equipment, which included antennas, “was clearly for intelligence surveillance and inconsistent with the equipment on board weather balloons,” the State Department said — a rebuttal to the Chinese government’s assertion that the balloon was a civilian meteorological machine that had strayed off course.

The balloon episode has led to a surge in U.S.-China tensions at a time when the relationship is already at one of its lowest points in decades. Although top American officials say they intend to keep channels of communication with China open, the clashing narratives over the balloon are sowing more conflict. And the Biden administration has begun a campaign to inform countries around the world of the extent of China’s spy balloon program and its violations of sovereignty, in the hope that other nations will push back against Chinese espionage activities.

Investigators from the Pentagon, F.B.I. and other agencies are examining the debris that the U.S. Navy has pulled from the shallow waters off the South Carolina coast. F.B.I. officials said Thursday that they were analyzing material from the balloon’s body, wiring and small amounts of electronics found floating on the water, all from debris that was handed over starting Monday.

Investigators believe that the bulk of the electronics is scattered on the bottom of the ocean, F.B.I. officials said. The balloon was 200 feet tall and had a payload the size of a regional jet, U.S. officials said earlier.

Some officials said learning exactly what kinds of communications information the balloon could collect is a top priority. Officials have said they have not found any evidence that suggests the balloon could carry weaponry.

Investigators are also looking to see whether any of the balloon’s equipment uses technology from American or other Western companies, U.S. officials said.

Any such discovery could spur the Biden administration to take harsher actions to ensure that companies do not export technology to China that could be used by the country’s military and security agencies.

President Biden and his aides have already imposed broad limits on the sales of “foundational technologies” to China. Most notably, the U.S. government announced last October that it was barring American companies from selling advanced semiconductor chips and certain chip manufacturing technology to China. The new rules are also aimed at preventing foreign companies from doing the same.

The goal of the export controls is to cripple China’s development of advanced technologies, particularly tools used by the Chinese military. Mr. Biden has stressed the importance of maintaining independent supply chains in critical sectors, a point that he highlighted in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday.

U.S. officials said they expect the recovered balloon parts will give them some insight into how Chinese engineers are putting together surveillance technology.

“We’re analyzing them to learn more about the surveillance program,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Wednesday. “We will pair that with what we learn from the balloon — what we learn from the balloon itself — with what we’ve gleaned based on our careful observation of the system when it was in our airspace, as the president directed his team to do.”

The State Department said in its document that the U.S. government was confident that the company that made the balloon had direct commercial ties with the People’s Liberation Army, the Chinese military, citing an official procurement portal for the army. The department did not name the company.

“The United States will also explore taking action against P.R.C. entities linked to the P.L.A. that supported the balloon’s incursion into U.S. airspace,” the State Department said, referring to the People’s Republic of China. “We will also look at broader efforts to expose and address the P.R.C.’s larger surveillance activities that pose a threat to our national security, and to our allies and partners.”

The department said the company advertises balloon products on its website and has posted videos from past flights that apparently went over U.S. airspace and that of other nations. The videos show balloons that have similar flight patterns as the surveillance balloons that the United States has been discussing this week, the agency said.

The State Department document said the downed balloon’s array of antennas was “likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications,” while its solar panels were large enough to produce power to operate “multiple active intelligence collection sensors.”

Intelligence agencies have concluded that the antennas were capable of locating communications devices, including mobile phones and radios, and collecting data from them, U.S. officials say. But they do not know exactly what kinds of devices were being targeted, two officials said.

Radio frequencies can be detected by orbital satellites. Mobile phone signals are harder to detect from space but reach as high as where the balloon was drifting, at 60,000 feet.

Intelligence agencies do not yet know, officials say, whether the balloon was supposed to fly over parts of the United States — including over nuclear weapons sites — or was blown off course or suffered mechanical failure.

Officials say they are confident that they prevented the balloon from collecting any sensitive data from U.S. nuclear sites and other military bases. The U.S. government also took steps to protect official communications, but officials said they were unsure what the balloon collected.

Wendy Sherman, the deputy secretary of state, told a Senate committee on Thursday that the spy balloon episode “put on full display what we’ve long recognized — the P.R.C. has become more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad.”

The Pentagon has said that a second balloon drifting last week over Latin America was also conducting surveillance, though China asserts that was a civilian balloon used for test flights.

The presence of the balloon in the United States last week ignited a diplomatic crisis and prompted Mr. Blinken to cancel a weekend trip to Beijing, where he had been expected to meet President Xi Jinping of China. Mr. Blinken said the balloon had violated U.S. sovereignty and was “an irresponsible act” by China.

After a U.S. fighter jet shot down the balloon, the Chinese government said the United States had overreacted and violated international convention, and that China had “the right to respond further.”

The Chinese government also said the balloon belonged to China and should not be kept by the United States.

The U.S. government says it has discovered instances of at least five Chinese spy balloons in American territory — three during the Trump administration and two during the Biden administration. The spy balloons observed during the Trump administration were initially classified as unidentified aerial phenomena, U.S. officials said. It was not until after 2020 that officials closely examined the balloon incidents under a broader review of aerial phenomena and determined that they were part of the Chinese global balloon surveillance effort.

The New York Times reported Saturday that a classified intelligence report given to Congress last month highlighted at least two instances of a foreign power using advanced technology for aerial surveillance over American military bases, one inside the continental United States and the other overseas. The research suggested China was the foreign power, U.S. officials said. The report also discussed surveillance balloons.

U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that China’s spy balloon program is part of a global surveillance effort designed to collect information on the military capabilities of countries around the world. With the flights, Chinese officials are trying to hone their ability to gather data about American military bases — in which it is most interested — as well as those of other nations in the event of a conflict or rising tensions, U.S. officials say. The program has operated out of multiple locations in China, they say.

China’s National University of Defense Technology has a team of researchers studying advances in balloons. And as early as 2020, People’s Liberation Army Daily, the main newspaper of the Chinese military, published an article describing how near space “has become a new battleground in modern warfare.”

---

Source: CBS NEWS

22 dead in Chile, as firefighters battle dozens of wildfires

CBS NEWS

FEBRUARY 8, 2023 / 7:30 PM / AP

Chile extended an emergency declaration to another region on Saturday as firefighters continued to struggle to control dozens of raging wildfires. At least 22 people have died in connection to the fires, and 554 have been injured, including 16 in serious condition, according to Interior Minister Carolina Tohá. 

The death toll is likely to rise as Tohá said there are unconfirmed reports of at least 10 people missing.

The government declared a state of catastrophe Saturday on La Araucanía region, which is south of Ñuble and Biobío, two central-southern regions where the emergency declaration had already been issued, allowing for greater cooperation with the military.

The fires come at a time of record high temperatures.

Sixteen of the deaths took place in Biobío, five in La Araucanía, and one in Ñuble.

The deaths included a Bolivian pilot who died when a helicopter that was helping combat the flames crashed in La Araucanía. A Chilean mechanic also died in the crash.

Over the past week, fires have burned through an area equivalent to what is usually burned in an entire year, Tohá said in a news conference.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Can Putin win?

A Russian assault is expected in Donbas, but all will depend on whether Russia has fixed major flaws in logistics and coordination.

POLITICO EU BY JAMIE DETTMER

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

“I am wicked and scary with claws and teeth,” Vladimir Putin reportedly warned David Cameron when the then-British prime minister pressed him about the use of chemical weapons by Russia’s ally in Syria, Bashar al-Assad, and discussed how far Russia was prepared to go.

According to Cameron’s top foreign policy adviser John Casson — cited in a BBC documentary — Putin went on to explain that to succeed in Syria, one would have to use barbaric methods, as the U.S. did in Abu Ghraib jail in Iraq. “I am an ex-KGB man,” he expounded. 

The remarks were meant, apparently, half in jest but, as ever with Russia’s leader, the menace was clear. 

And certainly, Putin has proven he is ready to deploy fear as a weapon in his attempt to subjugate a defiant Ukraine. His troops have targeted civilians and have resorted to torture and rape. But victory has eluded him.

Catalog of errors

From the start, the war was marked by misjudgments and erroneous calculations. Putin and his generals underestimated Ukrainian resistance, overrated the abilities of their own forces, and failed to foresee the scale of military and economic support Ukraine would receive from the United States and European nations.

Kyiv didn’t fall in a matter of days — as planned by the Kremlin — and Putin’s forces in the summer and autumn were pushed back, with Ukraine reclaiming by November more than half the territory the Russians captured in the first few weeks of the invasion. Russia has now been forced into a costly and protracted conventional war, one that’s sparked rare dissent within the country’s political-military establishment and led Kremlin infighting to spill into the open. 

The only victory Russian forces have recorded in months came in January when the Ukrainians withdrew from the salt-mining town of Soledar in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. And the signs are that the Russians are on the brink of another win with Bakhmut, just six miles southwest of Soledar, which is likely to fall into their hands shortly.

But neither of these blood-drenched victories amounts to much more than a symbolic success despite the high casualties likely suffered by both sides. Tactically neither win is significant — and some Western officials privately say Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may have been better advised to have withdrawn earlier from Soledar and from Bakhmut now, in much the same way the Russians in November beat a retreat from their militarily hopeless position at Kherson.

For a real reversal of Russia’s military fortunes Putin will be banking in the coming weeks on his forces, replenished by mobilized reservists and conscripts, pulling off a major new offensive. Ukrainian officials expect the offensive to come in earnest sooner than spring. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov warned in press conferences in the past few days that Russia may well have as many as 500,000 troops amassed in occupied Ukraine and along the borders in reserve ready for an attack. He says it may start in earnest around this month’s first anniversary of the war on February 24.

Other Ukrainian officials think the offensive, when it comes, will be in March — but at least before the arrival of Leopard 2 and other Western main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Zelenskyy warned Ukrainians Saturday that the country is entering a “time when the occupier throws more and more of its forces to break our defenses.”

All eyes on Donbas

The likely focus of the Russians will be on the Donbas region of the East. Andriy Chernyak, an official in Ukraine’s military intelligence, told the Kyiv Post that Putin had ordered his armed forces to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk by the end of March. “We’ve observed that the Russian occupation forces are redeploying additional assault groups, units, weapons and military equipment to the east,” Chernyak said. “According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, Putin gave the order to seize all of the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.” 

Other Ukrainian officials and western military analysts suspect Russia might throw some wildcards to distract and confuse. They have their eyes on a feint coming from Belarus mimicking the northern thrust last February on Kyiv and west of the capital toward Vinnytsia. But Ukrainian defense officials estimate there are only 12,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus currently, ostensibly holding joint training exercises with the Belarusian military, hardly enough to mount a diversion.

“A repeat assault on Kyiv makes little sense,” Michael Kofman, an American expert on the Russian Armed Forces and a fellow of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. “An operation to sever supply lines in the west, or to seize the nuclear powerplant by Rivne, may be more feasible, but this would require a much larger force than what Russia currently has deployed in Belarus,” he said in an analysis.

But exactly where Russia’s main thrusts will come along the 600-kilometer-long front line in Ukraine’s Donbas region is still unclear. Western military analysts don’t expect Russia to mount a push along the whole snaking front — more likely launching a two or three-pronged assault focusing on some key villages and towns in southern Donetsk, on Kreminna and Lyman in Luhansk, and in the south in Zaporizhzhia, where there have been reports of increased buildup of troops and equipment across the border in Russia.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have been removing residents near the Russian-held parts of the front line. And the region’s governor, Serhiy Haidai, believes the expulsions are aimed at clearing out possible Ukrainian spies and locals spotting for the Ukrainian artillery. “There is an active transfer of (Russian troops) to the region and they are definitely preparing for something on the eastern front,” Haidai told reporters.

Reznikov has said he expects the Russian offensive will come from the east and the south simultaneously — from Zaporizhzhia in the south and in Donetsk and Luhansk. In the run-up to the main offensives, Russian forces have been testing five points along the front, according to Ukraine’s General Staff in a press briefing Tuesday. They said Russian troops have been regrouping on different parts of the front line and conducting attacks near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka in eastern Donetsk.

Combined arms warfare

Breakthroughs, however, will likely elude the Russians if they can’t correct two major failings that have dogged their military operations so far — poor logistics and a failure to coordinate infantry, armor, artillery and air support to achieve mutually complementary effects, otherwise known as combined arms warfare.

When announcing the appointment in January of General Valery Gerasimov — the former chief of the defense staff — as the overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Russia’s defense ministry highlighted “the need to organize closer interaction between the types and arms of the troops,” in other words to improve combined arms warfare.

Kofman assesses that Russia’s logistics problems may have largely been overcome. “There’s been a fair amount of reorganization in Russian logistics, and adaptation. I think the conversation on Russian logistical problems in general suffers from too much anecdotalism and received wisdom,” he said.

Failing that, much will depend for Russia on how much Gerasimov has managed to train his replenished forces in combined arms warfare and on that there are huge doubts he had enough time. Kofman believes Ukrainian forces “would be better served absorbing the Russian attack and exhausting the Russian offensive potential, then taking the initiative later this spring. Having expended ammunition, better troops, and equipment it could leave Russian defense overall weaker.” He suspects the offensive “may prove underwhelming.”

Pro-war Russian military bloggers agree. They have been clamoring for another mobilization, saying it will be necessary to power the breakouts needed to reverse Russia’s military fortunes. Former Russian intelligence officer and paramilitary commander Igor Girkin, who played a key role in Crimea’s annexation and later in the Donbas, has argued waves of call-ups will be needed to overcome Ukraine’s defenses by sheer numbers.

And Western military analysts suspect that Ukraine and Russia are currently fielding about the same number of combat soldiers. This means General Gerasimov will need many more if he’s to achieve the three-to-one ratio military doctrines suggest necessary for an attacking force to succeed. 

Ukrainian officials think Russia’s offensive will be in March, before the arrival of Leopard 2 and other Western tanks | Sascha Schuermann/Getty Images

But others fear that Russia has sufficient forces, if they are concentrated, to make some “shock gains.” Richard Kemp, a former British army infantry commander, is predicting “significant Russian gains in the coming weeks. We need to be realistic about how bad things could be — otherwise the shock risks dislodging Western resolve,” he wrote. The fear being that if the Russians can make significant territorial gains in the Donbas, then it is more likely pressure from some Western allies will grow for negotiations.

But Gerasimov’s manpower deficiencies have prompted other analysts to say that if Western resolve holds, Putin’s own caution will hamper Russia’s chances to win the war. 

“Putin’s hesitant wartime decision-making demonstrates his desire to avoid risky decisions that could threaten his rule or international escalation — despite the fact his maximalist and unrealistic objective, the full conquest of Ukraine, likely requires the assumption of further risk to have any hope of success,” said the Institute for the Study of War in an analysis this week. 

Wicked and scary Putin may be but, as far as ISW sees it, he “has remained reluctant to order the difficult changes to the Russian military and society that are likely necessary to salvage his war.”

---

Source: Inti Ocon for The New York Times

Nicaragua Frees Hundreds of Political Prisoners to the United States

The authoritarian government of Daniel Ortega handed over 222 prisoners as a way to signal a desire to restart relations with the United States, according to officials.

NYT by Maria Abi-Habib

Feb. 9, 2023

Nicaragua released 222 political prisoners early Thursday, including an American citizen, in a deal negotiated with Washington that marks one of the biggest prisoner releases ever involving the United States, according to senior Biden administration officials.

The Nicaraguan government, which sought nothing in return, agreed to release the prisoners to the United States as a way to signal a desire to restart relations with the country, the officials said.

The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on the government and family of President Daniel Ortega in recent years, as the country has slid into autocratic rule and targeted opponents in civil society, the church and the news media.

Despite the positive action from the Nicaraguan government, officials in Washington say they remain wary since it is unclear whether the Ortega family is willing to loosen its grip on power, permit political dissent and hold free and fair elections.

Those released in Nicaragua included political opposition members, business figures, student activists and journalists. Once in the United States, they will be given humanitarian parole for a period of two years, a process that allows foreigners who do not have a visa or may not be eligible for one to enter the country and apply for asylum. Two other political prisoners declined offers of refuge in the United States.

The prisoner release “marks a constructive step toward addressing human rights abuses in the country and opens the door to further dialogue,” Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said in a statement.

Clutching what few belongings they had in plastic bags, many looking frail, the freed detainees boarded the flight from Managua to Washington, before it took off at about 7:45 a.m. E.S.T., officials said. It landed about four hours later.

The flight was chartered by the U.S. government and as it circled the sky above Washington some of the freed prisoners began to sing, tears in their eyes, according to officials.

The American government planned to provide medical and legal assistance to the former prisoners, according to U.S. officials, before allowing them to reunite with their families.

Friends and relatives of the prisoners waited at an arrivals section of Dulles International Airport. Some waved Nicaraguan flags while singing the national anthem. One person held up a painting of Jesus Christ. A person in the crowd read the names of those who had been freed as others chanted, “libertad,” meaning freedom.

In a Thursday evening speech, Mr. Ortega confirmed the prisoners’ release — calling them agents of Washington — and said his government did not ask for anything in return.

“We do not want any trace of those who are mercenaries to remain here in our country,” he said.

Biden administration officials said that while most of the sanctions against the Ortega family and the Nicaraguan government will continue, penalties specifically tied to the jailing of political prisoners may be eased.

Many of those released had been arrested over the last few years for their political dissent against the Ortega family, with many sentenced to prison or house arrest in what critics and family members called sham trials.

Some of them experienced horrific treatment inside Nicaraguan detention centers, many family members said, and were denied treatment for longstanding medical conditions or given little to eat. At least one of them died in captivity.

One of those traveling to the United States was Cristiana Chamorro Barrios, a journalist who was a leading contender in Nicaragua’s presidential elections held in 2021.

Just months before the elections, Ms. Chamorro was disqualified as a candidate. Government forces then raided her home and detained her minutes before she was scheduled to give a news conference to speak about her disqualification and criticize the government’s interference in the polls.

For Carlos Fernando Chamorro Barrios, the news could not have been more of a surprise. Beside his sister, Cristiana, his brother, Pedro Joaquín, was also freed on Thursday. Both had been jailed for their opposition to the Ortega family and Mr. Chamorro had expected to possibly never see them again.

“Today a long day of torture and cruelty against the best sons of Nicaragua has ended,” said Mr. Chamorro, who fled shortly after his brother and sister were imprisoned in 2021. This “is the first step toward freedom for all of Nicaragua,’’ he added. “All prisoners of conscience are innocent. They were convicted in spurious trials for fabricated crimes and have now been banished.”

The country’s National Assembly on Thursday passed a measure to change the constitution in order to strip the freed prisoners of their nationality, according to local media reports.

While officials in Washington were upbeat about Thursday’s developments, they said they would continue to apply pressure to the Ortega administration. The Biden administration does not believe that “the nature of the government” has changed, one official said.

In a sign that the Ortega family may not be willing to engage in a wider political opening, two drivers from La Prensa, Nicaragua’s leading newspaper, were sentenced Wednesday to 10 years in prison for undermining “national integrity.”

The prisoner release will likely revive a long standing debate about whether sanctions work in Washington’s favor. In countries less reliant on the United States and farther away, like North Korea or Iraq under Saddam Hussein, sanctions have had little impact.

But in countries more directly in Washington’s orbit, like Nicaragua, Thursday’s events may bolster the argument that sanctions are effective. Although the Ortega family has shored up its ties to China, Russia and Cuba in recent years, the United States is still by far Nicaragua’s top trading partner.

“There are a limited number of places in the world where the U.S. has real leverage and it seems like Nicaragua may be one of them,” said Dan Restrepo, a former national security adviser for Latin America under President Barack Obama.

“But Nicaragua remains a terrible place for Nicaraguans, and a lot more has to change. We will have to wait and see if it will,” he added.

Sanctions have hit the Ortega family and its inner circle hard in recent years, targeting the economy and top generals and several of the president’s children. The sanctions have also stretched the government’s ability to pay off pro-Ortega paramilitaries or expand the police force to manage dissent.

Last year Laureano Ortega, likely the heir to his father, approached Washington seeking sanctions relief in exchange for the release of political prisoners.

Mr. Ortega, the president of Nicaragua, is a former Marxist guerrilla leader who rose to power after helping overthrow another notorious Nicaraguan dictator, Anastasio Somoza, in 1979.

He then spent years in political opposition until winning elections in 2006 and began to steadily consolidate his family’s control. In 2017, Mr. Ortega appointed his wife as vice president, while his children began taking larger roles in business and politics.

Since then, the government has shut down independent media outlets and closed more than 3,000 nongovernmental organizations, while also banning church processions for fear that they could break out into protests.

While relatives of the political prisoners who were brought to the United States were overjoyed by their release, they said more needs to be done.

On Thursday, Ariana Gutierrez Pinto, 28, was waiting at Dulles airport for her mother, Evelyn, a human-rights activist who had been imprisoned for more than a year.

“I’m extremely excited. I cannot wait to hug her,” Ms. Pinto said. “But at the same time, it’s not fair for them to just have thrown them out of their own country.”

News round-up, Thursday, February 9, 2023

---

Editor's Reflections

…The sands of the hourglass are beginning to run out for Putin`s project and Europe too…

Germán & Co

A few days ago, in the Editorial, was shared the following thinking. …". Moreover, such striking white balloons suddenly emerged from outer space, attracting the attention of military intelligence and communities in different places. These —magnificent white balloons— were deployed into space to explore the crucial infrastructures of other sovereign governments without any qualms or concerns.

If we review last week's reflections (…." On the one hand, there is a clear nuclear threat from one of the parties involved. However, the West does not see it as latent; paradoxically, it intensifies military cooperation with Ukraine daily. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been firing long-range missiles from his territory, causing alarm in South Korea and Japan, and putting significant strain on US forces in the region. In addition, today, he announced US military reinforcements in the Philippines in the face of a possible military escalation from China to Taiwan.) all the military and political activities have multiplied, and this point is mirrored in today's Editorial in Le Monde, which reads as follows: …." The Chinese balloon is a counterproductive fuss... The divisions between the two major American political parties over China are bad news in a world already destabilized by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  

Now, the news about the development of the military conflict in Ukraine is no longer so unpleasant for President Vladimir Putin compared than the beginning of the invasion, which is reflected in his attitude and expression by images of him, released on the Russian President's office's hard-hitting website. 

Meanwhile, the world economy is disintegrating as fast as the Berlin Wall. Besides additionally, a horrific earthquake in Syria and Turkey has claimed more than ten thousand casualties, who only politically aid the unstable President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The real issue is, who is winning this crazy war? The answer is emphatic NO ONE.

---

Quote of the day…

Ben Rhodes, the former diplomatic adviser to Democratic President Barack Obama took the opportunity to poke fun: "What a moment. None of us shall ever forget where we were when we learned the news of The Balloon, nor forget the harrowing victory that was won in the final moments of The Battle of The Balloon," he tweeted.

---

Most Read…

Pope Francis urges followers to pray that AI and robots ‘always serve mankind’

The pope is worried about AI-driven inequality

Pope Francis has asked believers around the world to pray that robots and artificial intelligence “always serve mankind.”

The Verge by JAMES VINCENT

In Its Push for an Intelligence Edge, China’s Military Turned to Balloons

Chinese military scientists have been looking for ways to make them more durable, harder to detect and even to serve as platforms that fire advanced weapons.

NYT by Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien

How Russia Is Surviving the Tightening Grip on Its Oil Revenue

Restrictions on Russia’s oil trade are raising the stakes in a protracted economic standoff that is reshaping the global energy market.

NYT by Anatoly Kurmanaev and Stanley Reed

Anatoly Kurmanaev reported from Berlin, and Stanley Reed from London.

Brussels backtracks: EU prepares to quit dirty energy club

In a major policy shift, the European Commission says the Energy Charter Treaty is ‘not in line’ with the bloc’s climate goals.

The European Union is on the brink of withdrawing from an energy treaty that protects fossil fuel investments, following a major U-turn from the European Commission.

POLITICO EU BY CAMILLE GIJS, FEDERICA DI SARIO AND KARL MATHIESEN

Pictures of the day…

At the ceremony for presenting the 2022 Presidential prizes in Science and Innovation for Young Scientists. Photo: Vladimir Smirnov, TASS. http://en.kremlin.ru/

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Pope Francis urges followers to pray that AI and robots ‘always serve mankind’

The pope is worried about AI-driven inequality

The Verge by JAMES VINCENT

Nov 11, 2020

Pope Francis has asked believers around the world to pray that robots and artificial intelligence “always serve mankind.”

The message is one of the pope’s monthly prayer intentions — regular missives shared on YouTube that are intended to help Catholics “deepen their daily prayer” by focusing on particular topics or events. In August, the pope urged prayer for “the maritime world”; in April, the topic was “freedom for addiction.” Now, in November, it’s AI and robots.

Although the message sounds similar to warnings issued by tech notables like Elon Musk (the Tesla CEO famously compared work on artificial intelligence to “summoning the demon”), the pope’s focus is more prosaic. He doesn’t seem to be worrying about the sort of exotic doomsday scenario where a superintelligent AI turns the world into paperclips, but more about how the tech could exacerbate existing inequalities here and now.

(We should note also that the call to prayer came out earlier this month, but we only saw it recently via the Import AI newsletter because of the... events that have taken up so much of everyone’s time, energy, and general mental acuity in recent weeks.)

In his message, the pope said AI was “at the heart of the epochal change we are experiencing” and that robotics had the power to change the world for the better. But this would only be the case if these forces are harnessed correctly, he said. “Indeed, if technological progress increases inequalities, it is not true progress. Future advances should be orientated towards respecting the dignity of the person.”

Perhaps surprisingly, this isn’t new territory for the pope. Earlier this year, the Vatican, along with Microsoft and IBM, endorsed the “Rome Call for AI Ethics” — a policy document containing six general principles that guide the deployment of artificial intelligence. These include transparency, inclusion, impartiality, and reliability, all sensible attributes when it comes to deploying algorithms.

Although the pope didn’t touch on any particular examples in his video, it’s easy to think of ways that AI is entrenching or increasing divisions in society. Examples include biased facial recognition systems that lead to false arrests and algorithmically allotted exam results that replicate existing inequalities between students. In other words: regardless of whether you think prayer is the appropriate course of action, the pope certainly has a point.

---

Image: Germán & Co

In Its Push for an Intelligence Edge, China’s Military Turned to Balloons

Chinese military scientists have been looking for ways to make them more durable, harder to detect and even to serve as platforms that fire advanced weapons.

NYT by Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien

Feb. 9, 2023

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Long before an unmanned Chinese airship floating over the United States grabbed the world’s attention, Taiwan may have glimpsed Beijing’s ambitions to turn balloons — seemingly so old-fashioned and ponderous — into elusive tools of 21st-century military power.

Residents in Taipei and elsewhere on the island have spotted and photographed mysterious pale orbs high in the sky at least several times in the previous two years. But few people here, even officials, gave them much thought then. Now, Taiwanese officials are grappling with whether any of the balloons were part of China’s growing fleet of airborne surveillance craft, deployed to gather information from the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

The incursions have come into focus since the United States identified and shot down the Chinese balloon that had spent days traversing the country. Beijing has protested the balloon’s downing, asserting that it was a civilian ship doing scientific research. But American officials say that the balloon was part of a global surveillance effort targeting the military capabilities of various countries.

China’s surveillance airships are likely operated by the Strategic Support Force, experts say, a relatively new and often secretive arm of the Chinese military that carries out electronic surveillance and cyber operations. The force emerged from the Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s drive to modernize the People’s Liberation Army, including expanding its intelligence capabilities, spanning from satellites in space to vessels deep undersea, said Su Tzu-yun, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.

“The balloons should be understood as one part of its electronic spying system,” he said in an interview. Even data that the balloons can gather about humidity and air currents may be militarily useful, he said. If China ever launches missiles, “this atmospheric information could improve their accuracy.”

A review of Chinese military studies, newspaper articles and patent filings illuminates the range of Beijing’s interests and ambitions with balloons.

Chinese military scientists have been studying new materials and techniques to make balloons more durable, more steerable and harder to detect and track. People’s Liberation Army researchers have also been testing balloons as potential aerial platforms from which to fire weapons.

Even in this hitherto obscure corner of military innovation, China sees big stakes. Its military researchers warn that rival governments, above all the United States, could beat them at their own game. They especially worry about dominance in “near space,” the inhospitable layer of the atmosphere between 12 and 62 miles above earth.

“Near space has become a new battleground in modern warfare,” an article in the Liberation Army Daily, the official newspaper of China’s military, said in 2018. It celebrated China’s feat in the previous year of sending a balloon, carrying a small live turtle, over 12 miles up. Last year, China experimented with using rockets to propel balloons up to 25 miles above the earth.

The Chinese military, like other militaries, wants to “try all the options,” said Bates Gill, the author of a recent study, Daring to Struggle: China’s Global Ambitions Under Xi Jinping.

“My sense is the People’s Liberation Army is pretty unrestrained these days,” said Mr. Gill, the executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. “Not in the ‘Wild West,’ corrupt sense of the past, but in the sense of how it experiments and pushes the envelope.”

Such boldness may explain the recent balloon flights in the United States and Taiwan, which did not go entirely unnoticed. In September 2021, residents of Taipei, the capital of the island, made anxious calls to weather officials to ask about a pale, tiny dot they were seeing high above them.

Cheng Ming-dean, the head of Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, checked a close-up photograph of it and told people to relax: It was just a balloon. The large balloons were seen twice in late 2021 as well as in March of last year. Four clusters of smaller balloons were also spotted early last year.

photograph of the same balloon seen in September 2021, provided by the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan.Credit...Central Weather Bureau Taiwan

“Back then, I don’t think Taiwan was paying particular attention to this kind of thing,” Mr. Cheng said in an interview.

Now, as some smaller states — particularly those the United States describes as allies and partners — confront this new potential threat of surveillance, their options may be limited.

What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.

Shooting down balloons is likely to be difficult and expensive for many air forces, said Chang Yan-ting, a retired deputy commander of Taiwan’s Air Force. Over 30 years ago, he was a jet pilot sent up to inspect three balloons that were believed to be Chinese. In the end, he decided that they posed no threat, and would have been too hard to bring down, anyway.

“It’s very difficult; these balloons don’t give a radar reflection,” he said in an interview. “Look at the United States: It went to enormous efforts to send F-22s, its best fighter jet, and used its most advanced missiles to strike it — did you see? A bit like using a cannon to shoot a small bird.”

To be clear, the core of China’s digital intelligence collection system remains an armada of more than 260 satellites dedicated to intelligence and surveillance. The balloons, however, may offer some advantages over satellites because they can hover over areas and may produce clearer images, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

The Chinese military is aware of such advantages. In modern battlefields, too, “maintaining constant aerial surveillance has become an urgent task,” a Chinese Liberation Army Daily report said in 2021. With satellites and planes alone, the report said, “it is hard to achieve full-time, full-scope, fixed-point early warning and surveillance from the air.”

If the Chinese Strategic Support Force was responsible for the recent balloon mission over the United States, the force’s relative newness and fragmented background may help to explain how the operation went ahead with seemingly little calculation of the trouble it could create, said Mr. Gill, who has studied the force. It was formed as part of a sweeping military reorganization that Mr. Xi launched in 2015, absorbing parts of the air force, navy and army.

Poor internal communication between the Chinese military and civilian government, and even inside the People’s Liberation Army and Strategic Support Force itself, may have contributed to the problem, Mr. Gill said.

“It’s a really good example of the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing in China,” he said.

The recent attention on China’s balloon program may discourage the Chinese military from deploying new ones for a while. But the research will likely forge ahead.

Military scientists, especially at China’s National University of Defense Technology, have worked on new materials, designs and navigation tools to make balloons more nimble and long-lasting. They have filed patents for innovations such as a “three-dimensional flight path tracking method for an unmanned airship,” and articles in the Chinese military’s newspapers indicate it pays attention to balloon developments in the United States, France, Israel and other countries.

One lecturer from the National University of Defense Technology, wrote last year in the Liberation Army Daily that China could try to develop smart high-altitude balloons that are able to escape the more turbulent lower atmosphere and catch the steadier wind currents of the upper atmosphere, enabling them to surf long distances helped by small motors.

“With their many advantages,” another article in the same newspaper said last year, “balloons seem to be ushering in their springtime of development.”

Chinese researchers have also speculated about using high-altitude balloons to carry and launch missiles from near space, where they would be harder to detect, to earth.

In 2018, China’s state broadcaster said that researchers had tested a balloon platform that they said could be used to launch hypersonic weapons — which can fly at several times the speed of sound — from midair. But Chinese reports about the country’s military advances are prone to exaggeration. That report noted that the test used scale models, and it is debatable whether China’s other military balloon capabilities always live up to the swaggering claims.

Technical shortcomings may help explain the untimely appearance of the Chinese balloon over the United States — just before the Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, was to fly to Beijing. He canceled that trip.

“It may have been bad timing,” Mr. Su, the Taiwanese military researcher, said. “It’s become relatively easy to control the direction of balloons, but controlling their speed is a different matter.”

Chris Buckley is chief China correspondent and has lived in China for most of the past 30 years after growing up in Sydney, Australia. Before joining The Times in 2012, he was a correspondent in Beijing for Reuters. @ChuBailiang

---

Image: Germán & Co

How Russia Is Surviving the Tightening Grip on Its Oil Revenue

Restrictions on Russia’s oil trade are raising the stakes in a protracted economic standoff that is reshaping the global energy market.

NYT by Anatoly Kurmanaev and Stanley Reed

Anatoly Kurmanaev reported from Berlin, and Stanley Reed from London.

Feb. 7, 2023

Shunned by the West, Russia was able last year to redirect its potent oil exports to Asia, marshal a fleet of tankers unencumbered by Western penalties and adapt evasion schemes perfected previously by its allies Iran and Venezuela.

The strategy worked: President Vladimir V. Putin not only retained but also increased money from energy exports, according to official data, and may have brought in more cash, collected in the shadows of the oil trade, that could be helping the war effort.

But it’s not clear if Russia can keep outmaneuvering efforts to throttle oil revenue. There are signs that Western controls that took effect in December — an embargo on most sales to Europe, and the Group of 7 nations’ price cap on Russian crude sold to other nations — are beginning to have a deep impact on energy earnings.

And another round of sanctions to slash Russia’s war chest began on Sunday, when the European Union’s embargo on Russian diesel, gasoline and other refined oil products took effect. Like the crude oil sanctions, it is accompanied by Group of 7 price caps on Russian diesel and other oil products sold elsewhere.

The gradual ratcheting up of oil sanctions, which are designed to cut Russia’s oil export revenues without snuffing out a fragile global pandemic recovery, is a policy that analysts say could take years to bear fruit.

“Sanctions, in general, are more like a marathon than a sprint,” said Edward Fishman, a former State Department sanctions official. “Now that these sanctions are in place on Russia’s oil sector, I think you have got to assume they are a permanent fixture of the market.”

A year since the start of the war, Russia has been able to keep its oil flowing.

For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the Russian government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

Export volumes of Russia’s main type of crude have also recovered after a dip in December caused by the imposition of the Group of 7 price cap and a Western embargo on seaborne Russian crude, according to the I.E.A.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund said that the oil price cap, currently $60 per barrel, was unlikely to affect Russian oil export volumes, and that it expected the Russian economy would grow 0.3 percent this year after shrinking 2.2 percent in 2022. That projection beats the fund’s forecasts for the British and German economies.

Russia has blunted the impact of Western measures by redirecting crude exports to China, India and Turkey, exploiting its access to oil ports on three different seas, extensive pipelines, a large fleet of tankers and a sizable domestic capital market that is shielded from Western sanctions.

In the process, the Kremlin was able to re-engineer, in months, decade-long global oil trade patterns. Russia’s oil exports to India, for example, have grown sixteenfold since the start of the war, averaging 1.6 million barrels per day in December, according to the I.E.A.

“Russia remains a formidable force on the global energy market,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an energy scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a research group in Washington. “Opposing such a major player is not easy at all, and won’t happen in a day.”

Even as Russia continues producing about 10 million barrels of oil per day — making it the world’s third-largest producer, after the United States and Saudi Arabia — the European oil ban and price cap adopted on Dec. 5 have recently curtailed the money its treasury derives from exports. In December, Russian oil export revenues were $12.6 billion, nearly $4 billion less than a year earlier, according to the I.E.A. estimates.

That’s largely because Russian oil companies have to offer increasingly large discounts to a shrinking pool of buyers.

The trend appears to be persisting. The Russian government’s revenue from oil and gas production and exports fell in January by 46 percent from the same month last year, the Finance Ministry said on Monday.

The difference between the prices of Brent, a global oil benchmark, and Urals, the main type of exported Russian crude, widened to about $40 per barrel in January, according to the energy data company Argus Media. That gap was just a few dollars before the war.

The Russian Finance Ministry has acknowledged the drop in oil revenues, saying last week that the average price of Urals in January was $49.50 a barrel, nearly half its price a year earlier. The ministry uses the Urals price to calculate its tax take from oil exports.

“The windfall income will decline, and volumes of their receipts will become less predictable,” the Finance Ministry said in a budget forecast late last year.

To supporters of Russian oil sanctions, the Kremlin’s ability to keep selling oil for less money is the intended outcome of the price cap. The idea is to avoid a shortage that could force prices up.

“So far, so good,” said Mr. Fishman, the U.S. sanctions expert.

Some oil experts say, however, that the steep discounts for Russian oil could partly be an illusion.

Using customs data from India, Mr. Vakulenko, the Russian oil expert, showed that local importers of Russian crude paid almost the same price as Brent crude. A New York Times analysis of the same data produced similar results.

The explanation, Mr. Vakulenko suggested, is that at least part of the large discount on the quoted Urals price had been pocketed by Russian exporters and intermediaries, who then charged a higher price to the buyers in India.

This revenue will not accrue directly to the Russian government in taxes, said Tatiana Mitrova, a Russian oil expert at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. But because the Russian exporters probably have close ties to the Kremlin, some of money might still support the war effort, she said.

“It’s a complete black box of funds,” she said.

Experts agree that in the longer term, the future of Russian oil revenues will be decided by global economic forces beyond the control of Western sanctions enforcers and Russian evaders.

They say global oil prices will remain the single biggest determinant of how much money the Kremlin will collect from a barrel of exported crude, despite the growing opacity of its trade.

And the fate of that price rests to a large extent on Russia’s ally China, whose economy is just beginning to emerge from years of strict Covid restrictions. In December, China’s imports of crude oil hit a record of 16.3 million barrels a day, according to estimates by Kpler, a firm that tracks energy shipping. If the trend continues, it will strain global oil supplies and benefit the Kremlin.

Adding to the upward pressure on oil prices, OPEC Plus, an alliance of Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said last Wednesday that it would maintain last year’s restrictive output targets, which could strain oil supplies if demand grows.

After a year of preparations, Russia seems able to absorb the immediate impact of Western oil sanctions on production, said Felix Todd, an analyst at Argus Media. Experts say Russia can plug any oil funding gaps in the next few years by using its National Wealth Fund, which it has amassed from past windfall energy profits and is worth about $150 billion.

The Russian government has also shielded its defense and social spending from budget cuts, meaning that even a drastic decline in oil revenues will not hurt its war effort for the foreseeable future, said Alexandra Prokopenko, a Russian economic analyst and former adviser at the Russian central bank.

“Putin has plenty of money to keep fighting,” she said.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Brussels backtracks: EU prepares to quit dirty energy club

In a major policy shift, the European Commission says the Energy Charter Treaty is ‘not in line’ with the bloc’s climate goals.

POLITICO EU BY CAMILLE GIJS, FEDERICA DI SARIO AND KARL MATHIESEN

FEBRUARY 7, 2023

The European Union is on the brink of withdrawing from an energy treaty that protects fossil fuel investments, following a major U-turn from the European Commission.

A spokesperson told POLITICO that the Commission on Tuesday recommended to EU countries that the bloc should “carry out a coordinated withdrawal” from the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT).

The news followed a POLITICO report on a document outlining the view of the Commission’s internal legal services that a full-scale EU departure was “unavoidable” after several EU countries — including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain — last year rebelled and said they would leave the deal unilaterally. 

It's a big shift for the Commission, which for years had pushed for reforming the pact and keeping EU countries inside. But given the exodus, the EU's executive told diplomats on Tuesday it now backed leaving the deal.

"No wonder the European Commission now comes to the conclusion that the EU exit appears unavoidable given this political context. It is high time to get the exit done," said Anna Cavazzini, the MEP who leads talks on the treaty in the European Parliament.

The charter is the world’s most used investment treaty. It was designed in the 1990s to encourage Western European companies to invest in post-communist states. The ECT offers generous protections to an estimated €344.6 billion of coal, oil and gas investments in the EU, U.K. and Switzerland, allowing companies to sue countries for profits lost as a result of changes in government policy.

But the treaty now clashes with the EU's pledge to slash the use of fossil fuels under its Green Deal project.

The Commission had tried to reform the 50-plus country pact, but ECT members in Central and Eastern Asia were unwilling to abandon its protections. That precipitated a major campaign against the deal, led by NGOs but joined later by the governments of France and Spain.

“There is still a false hope in the room that an agreement like the ECT would lead to more investments,” said Cornelia Maarfield, a senior trade and investment policy coordinator at green alliance CAN Europe. “But it has never been proven that that is the case.”

The fears over the deal have been borne out in recent years, most notably when the Netherlands was sued by two German coal companies over its plans to phase out the use of the highly polluting fuel.

The Commission now has little choice but to agree with the deal’s opponents. “An unmodernized ECT is not in line with the EU’s policy on investment protection or the European Green Deal,” the spokesperson said.

POLITICO contacted diplomats from several EU member countries, some of which have announced they intend to cut and run from the deal and others that have not. They all said they were still absorbing the Commission’s change of heart.

What happens next?

On the surface, withdrawal from the deal seems like an obvious move for a climate-ambitious bloc. But within its pages lies a poison pill: a ‘sunset clause’ that leaves countries open to lawsuits for 20 years after they exit the pact.

The Commission’s legal note suggested that future lawsuits may be limited because most energy investments in the EU are made by EU companies. The Commission suggested that EU countries should draft a deal between themselves to the effect that the ECT “does not apply, and has never applied, in intra-EU relations.”

However, a coordinated exit will have no effect on current proceedings, said Johannes Tropper, a law researcher at the University of Vienna, and an EU company could still benefit from ECT protection if it has a subsidiary in a country that hasn't left the pact.

Projects with investments from outside the EU would still be subject to potential legal action.

Should a full-scale withdrawal be eventually rejected, the EU’s executive would be left facing two fallback scenarios: a withdrawal preceded by negotiations aimed at ensuring that some EU states remain part of a reformed treaty; or pushing the Council to back the reforms before proceeding to a coordinated departure. 

The first option would allow ECT defenders to remain affiliated with a revised version of the pact, in spite of a subsequent withdrawal of the EU and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). That “would allow for the modernisation of the ECT to be adopted, also for the benefit of non-EU Contracting Parties,” read the legal note.

The last avenue would see the EU and Euratom back a revision of the treaty while “starting proceedings for their withdrawal in parallel.” However, the Commission is aware that this  “would run counter to the public and political announcement already made by a number of Member States,” on top of “being disingenuous vis-à-vis other non-EU Contracting Parties.”

Maarfield believes that the EU’s landmark departure from the dirty energy deal could have a knock-on effect. 

“For other countries wishing to become EU members in the future, it would make a lot of sense to withdraw now, because, once they access the bloc, they would have to rethink their membership within ECT membership anyway,” she said. “So this is actually a great opportunity.” 

---

News round-up, Wednesday, February 8, 2023

---

The surprise of the day…

Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy to address parliament and meet King Charles in surprise UK visit

Quote of the day…

Images posted on social media are analyzed by artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that decide what to amplify and what to suppress. Many of these algorithms, a Guardian investigation has found, have a gender bias, and may have been censoring and suppressing the reach of countless photos featuring women’s bodies.

Most read…

‘There is no standard’: investigation finds AI algorithms objectify women’s bodies

Guardian exclusive: AI tools rate photos of women as more sexually suggestive than those of men, especially if nipples, pregnant bellies or exercise is involved

The Guardian by Gianluca Mauro and Hilke Schellmann

Russia’s oil revenues plunge as EU’s oil war enters round 2

Dire Russian budget numbers signal a ‘bad start’ to the fiscal year, says an energy analyst.

POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER

In from the coal: Australia sheds climate pariah status to make up with Europe

Europe needs our energy and we’re happy to help, Australian Climate Minister Chris Bowen tells POLITICO.

POLITICO EU BY KARL MATHIESEN

Biden urges Republicans to help him 'finish job' of rebuilding economy

In his State of the Union address, marked by partisan division, the US president sought to portray a nation dramatically improved from the one he took charge of two years ago.

Le Monde with AP   

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

‘There is no standard’: investigation finds AI algorithms objectify women’s bodies

Guardian exclusive: AI tools rate photos of women as more sexually suggestive than those of men, especially if nipples, pregnant bellies or exercise is involved

by Gianluca Mauro and Hilke Schellmann

Wed 8 Feb 2023 11.00 GMT

Images posted on social media are analyzed by artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that decide what to amplify and what to suppress. Many of these algorithms, a Guardian investigation has found, have a gender bias, and may have been censoring and suppressing the reach of countless photos featuring women’s bodies.

These AI tools, developed by large technology companies, including Google and Microsoft, are meant to protect users by identifying violent or pornographic visuals so that social media companies can block it before anyone sees it. The companies claim that their AI tools can also detect “raciness” or how sexually suggestive an image is. With this classification, platforms – including Instagram and LinkedIn – may suppress contentious imagery.

Objectification of women seems deeply embedded in the system

Leon Derczynski, IT University of Copenhagen

Two Guardian journalists used the AI tools to analyze hundreds of photos of men and women in underwear, working out, using medical tests with partial nudity and found evidence that the AI tags photos of women in everyday situations as sexually suggestive. They also rate pictures of women as more “racy” or sexually suggestive than comparable pictures of men. As a result, the social media companies that leverage these or similar algorithms have suppressed the reach of countless images featuring women’s bodies, and hurt female-led businesses – further amplifying societal disparities.

Even medical pictures are affected by the issue. The AI algorithms were tested on images released by the US National Cancer Institute demonstrating how to do a clinical breast examination. Google’s AI gave this photo the highest score for raciness, Microsoft’s AI was 82% confident that the image was “explicitly sexual in nature”, and Amazon classified it as representing “explicit nudity”.

Microsoft’s AI was 82% confident that this image demonstrating how to do a breast exam was ‘explicitly sexual in nature’, and Amazon categorized it as ‘explicit nudity’. Photograph: National Cancer Institute/Unsplash

Pregnant bellies are also problematic for these AI tools. Google’s algorithm scored the photo as “very likely to contain racy content”. Microsoft’s algorithm was 90% confident that the image was “sexually suggestive in nature”.

Images of pregnant bellies are categorized as ‘very likely to contain racy content’. Photograph: Dragos Gontariu/Unsplash

“This is just wild,” said Leon Derczynski, a professor of computer science at the IT University of Copenhagen, who specializes in online harm. “Objectification of women seems deeply embedded in the system.”

One social media company said they do not design their systems to create or reinforce biases and classifiers are not perfect.

“This is a complex and evolving space, and we continue to make meaningful improvements to SafeSearch classifiers to ensure they stay accurate and helpful for everyone,” a Google spokesperson said.

Getting shadowbanned

In May 2021, Gianluca Mauro, an AI entrepreneur, advisor and co-author of this article, published a LinkedIn post and was surprised it had just been seen 29 times in an hour, instead of the roughly 1,000 views he usually gets. Maybe the picture of two women wearing tube tops was the problem?

He re-uploaded the same exact text with another picture. The new post got 849 views in an hour.

Mauro’s LinkedIn post showing two women in tube tops received only 29 views in one hour compared to 849 views when a different image was used. Composite: Gianluca Mauro/The Guardian

It seemed like his post had been suppressed or “shadowbanned”. Shadowbanning refers to the decision of a social media platform to limit the reach of a post or account. While a regular ban involves actively blocking a post or account and notifying the user, shadowbanning is less transparent - often the reach will be suppressed without the user’s knowledge.

The Guardian found that Microsoft, Amazon and Google offer content moderation algorithms to any business for a small fee. Microsoft, the parent company and owner of LinkedIn, said its tool “can detect adult material in images so that developers can restrict the display of these images in their software”.

Another experiment on LinkedIn was conducted to try to confirm the discovery.

The photo of the women got eight views in one hour, while the picture with the men received 655 views, suggesting the women’s photo was either suppressed or shadowbanned. Composite: Gianluca Mauro/The Guardian

In two photos depicting both women and men in underwear, Microsoft’s tool classified the picture showing two women as racy and gave it a 96% score. The picture with the men was classified as non-racy with a score of 14%.

The photo of the women got eight views within one hour, and the picture with the two men received 655 views, suggesting the photo of the women in underwear was either suppressed or shadowbanned.

You cannot have one single uncontested definition of raciness

Abeba Birhane

Shadowbanning has been documented for years, but the Guardian journalists may have found a missing link to understand the phenomenon: biased AI algorithms. Social media platforms seem to leverage these algorithms to rate images and limit the reach of content that they consider too racy. The problem seems to be that these AI algorithms have built-in gender bias, rating women more racy than images containing men.

“Our teams utilize a combination of automated techniques, human expert reviews and member reporting to help identify and remove content that violates our professional community policies,” said LinkedIn spokesperson Fred Han in a statement. “In addition, our feed uses algorithms responsibly in order to surface content that helps our members be more productive and successful in their professional journey.”

Amazon said content moderation is based on a variety of factors including geography, religious beliefs and cultural experience. However, “Amazon Rekognition is able to recognize a wide variety of content, but it does not determine the appropriateness of that content,” an Amazon spokesperson said. “The service simply returns labels for items it detects for further evaluation by human moderators.”

Digging deeper

Natasha Crampton, Microsoft’s chief responsible AI officer, and her team began investigating when journalists notified her about the labeling of the photos.

“The initial results do not suggest that those false positives occur at a disproportionately higher rate for women as compared with men,” Crampton said. When additional photos were run through the tool, the demo website had been changed. Before the problem was discovered, it was possible to test the algorithms by simply dragging and dropping a picture. Now an account needed to be created and code had to be written.

Screenshots of Microsoft’s platform in June 2021 (left), and in July 2021 (right). In the first version, there is a button to upload any photo and test the technology, which has disappeared in the later version. Composite: Gianluca Mauro/The Guardian

But what are these AI classifiers actually analyzing in the photos? More experiments were needed, so Mauro agreed to be the test subject.

When photographed in long pants and with a bare chest, Microsoft’s algorithm had a confidence score lower than 22% for raciness. When Mauro put on a bra, the raciness score jumped to 97%. The algorithm gave a 99% score when the bra was held next to me.

“You are looking at decontextualized information where a bra is being seen as inherently racy rather than a thing that many women wear every day as a basic item of clothing,” said Kate Crawford, professor at the University of Southern California and the author of Atlas of AI.

Abeba Birhane, a senior fellow at the Mozilla Foundation and an expert in large visual datasets, said raciness is a social concept that differs from one culture to the other.

“These concepts are not like identifying a table where you have the physical thing and you can have a relatively agreeable definition or rating for a certain thing,” she said. “You cannot have one single uncontested definition of raciness.”

Why do these systems seem so biased?

Modern AI is built using machine learning, a set of algorithms that allow computers to learn from data. When developers use machine learning, they don’t write explicit rules telling computers how to perform a task. Instead, they provide computers with training data. People are hired to label images so that computers can analyze their scores and find whatever pattern helps it replicate human decisions.

Margaret Mitchell, chief ethics scientist at the AI firm Hugging Face and former co-head of Google’s Ethical AI research group, believes that the photos used to train these algorithms were probably labeled by straight men, who may associate men working out with fitness, but may consider an image of a woman working out as racy. It’s also possible that these ratings seem gender biased in the US and in Europe because the labelers may have been from a place with a more conservative culture.

Don't like it?

Why not?

Ideally, tech companies should have conducted thorough analyses on who is labeling their data, to make sure that the final dataset embeds a diversity of views, she said. The companies should also check that their algorithms perform similarly on photos of men v women and other groups, but that is not always done.

“There’s no standard of quality here,” Mitchell said.

This gender bias the Guardian uncovered is part of more than a decade of controversy around content moderation on social media. Images showing people breastfeeding their children and different standards for photos of male nipples, which are allowed on Instagram, and female nipples, which have to be covered, have long garnered outcries about social media platforms’ content moderation practices.

Now Meta’s oversight board - an external body including professors, researchers and journalists, who are paid by the company – has asked the tech giant to clarify its adult nudity and sexual activity community standard guidelines on social media platforms “so that all people are treated in a manner consistent with international human rights standards, without discrimination on the basis of sex or gender”.

Meta declined to comment for this story.

‘Women should be expressing themselves’

Bec Wood, a 38-year-old photographer based in Perth, Australia, said she’s terrified of Instagram’s algorithmic police force.

I will censor as artistically as possible any nipples. I find this so offensive to ... women

Bec Wood

After Wood had a daughter nine years ago, she started studying childbirth education and photographing women trying to push back against societal pressures many women feel that they should look like supermodels.

“I was not having that for my daughter,” she said. “Women should be expressing themselves and celebrating themselves and being seen in all these different shapes and sizes. I just think that’s so important for humanity to move forward.”

Wood’s photos are intimate glimpses into women’s connections with their offspring, photographing breastfeeding, pregnancy and other important moments in an artful manner. Her business is 100% dependent on Instagram: “That’s where people find you,” Wood said. “If I don’t share my work, I don’t get work.”

Google and Microsoft rated Wood’s photos as likely to contain explicit sexual content. Amazon categorized the image of the pregnant belly on the right as ‘explicit nudity’.

Since Wood started her business in 2018, for some of her photos she got messages from Instagram that the company was either taking down some of her pictures or that they were going to allow them on her profile but not on the explore tab, a section of the app where people can discover content from accounts they don’t follow. She hoped that Instagram was going to fix the issue over time, but the opposite happened, she said. “I honestly can’t believe that it’s gotten worse. It has devastated my business.” Wood described 2022 as her worst year business-wise.

She is terrified that if she uploads the “wrong” image, she will be locked out of her account with over 13,000 followers, which would bankrupt her business: “I’m literally so scared to post because I’m like, ‘Is this the post that’s going to lose everything?’” she said.

To avoid this, Wood started going against what made her start her work in the first place: “I will censor as artistically as possible any nipples. I find this so offensive to art, but also to women,” she said. “I almost feel like I’m part of perpetuating that ridiculous cycle that I don’t want to have any part of.”

Running some of Wood’s photos through the AI algorithms of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, including those featuring a pregnant belly got rated as racy, nudity or even explicitly sexual.

Wood is not alone. Carolina Are, an expert on social media platforms and content moderation and currently an Innovation fellow at the Centre for Digital Citizens at Northumbria University said she has used Instagram to promote her business and was a victim of shadowbanning.

Are, a pole dance instructor, said some of her photos were taken down, and in 2019, she discovered that her pictures did not show up in the explore page or under the hashtag #FemaleFitness, where Instagram users can search content from users they do not follow. “It was literally just women working out in a very tame way. But then if you looked at hashtag #MaleFitness, it was all oily dudes and they were fine. They weren’t shadowbanned,” she said.

Carolina Are, a pole dance instructor, found that some of her photos were not showing up on social media. Photograph: Rachel Marsh/Courtesy of @ray.marsh

For Are, these individual problems point to larger systemic ones: many people, including chronically ill and disabled folks, rely on making money through social media and shadowbanning harms their business.

Mitchell, the chief ethics scientist at Hugging Face, these kinds of algorithms are often recreating societal biases: “It means that people who tend to be marginalized are even further marginalized – like literally pushed down in a very direct meaning of the term marginalization.”

To secure a safer future for AI, we need the benefit of a female perspective

John Naughton

It’s a representational harm and certain populations are not adequately represented, she added. “In this case, it would be an idea that women must cover themselves up more than men and so that ends up creating this sort of social pressure for women as this becomes the norm of what you see, ” Mitchell said.

The harm is worsened by a lack of transparency. While in some cases Wood has been notified that her pictures were banned or limited in reach, she believes Instagram took other actions against her account without her knowing it. “I’ve had people say ‘I can’t tag you,’ or ‘I was searching for you to show my friend the other day and you’re not showing up,’” she said. “I feel invisible.”

Because she might be, said computer scientist Derczynski: “The people posting these images will never find out about it, which is just so deeply problematic.” he said. “They get a disadvantage forced upon them and they have no agency in this happening and they’re not informed that it’s happening either.”

This story was supported by the Pulitzer Center.

---

Source: POLITICO EU

Russia’s oil revenues plunge as EU’s oil war enters round 2

Dire Russian budget numbers signal a ‘bad start’ to the fiscal year, says an energy analyst.

POLITICO EU BY CHARLIE COOPER

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

The EU’s energy war with Russia has entered a new phase — and there are signs that the Kremlin is starting to feel the pain.

As of Sunday, it is illegal to import petroleum products — those refined from crude oil, such as diesel, gasoline and naphtha — from Russia into the EU. That comes hot on the heels of the EU’s December ban on Russian seaborne crude oil.

Both measures are also linked to price caps imposed by the G7 club of rich democracies aimed at driving down the price that Russia gets for its oil and refined products without disrupting global energy markets.

Those actions appear to have bitten into the Kremlin’s budget in a way other economic penalties levied in retaliation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine have not.

The Kremlin’s tax income from oil and gas in January was among its lowest monthly totals since the depths of COVID in 2020, according to Janis Kluge, senior associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Kluge noted that while Russia’s 2023 budget anticipates 9 trillion rubles (€120 billion) in fossil fuel income, in January it earned only 425 billion rubles from oil and gas taxes, around half compared to the same month last year.

It's only one month's figures and the income does fluctuate, but Kluge called it "a bad start."

Russia’s gas sales to Europe have also collapsed — in part as a result of Moscow's own energy blackmail — with its share of imports declining from around 40 percent throughout 2021 to 13 percent for November 2022, according to the latest confirmed European Commission monthly figure.

But it’s oil that matters most to Kremlin coffers.

On Friday, EU countries struck a deal on two price caps which will come into full force later this year following a 55-day transition period. A cap of $100 will apply to “premium” oil products, including diesel, gasoline and kerosene. A cap of $45 will be enforced on “discount” products, such as fuel oil, naphtha and heating oil.

The EU ban and the G7 price caps are meant to work in tandem. While the EU bans Russian oil, cutting off a vital market, the price caps ensure that insurance and shipping firms based in the EU and other G7 countries aren’t completely blocked from facilitating the global trade in Russian oil. They still can, but it must be under the price caps. This way — so the theory goes — Russia’s fossil fuel revenue will take a hit without disrupting the global oil market in a way that could endanger supply and drive up the price for everyone.

Squeezing the Kremlin

Russia is selling more crude to China and India to make up for the lost trade with the EU | iStock

So far, EU leaders think, it’s working.

Buyers in China and India and other countries are hoovering up more Russian crude, making up for the lost trade with Europe. But knowing that Russia has few alternative markets, buyers have been able to drive down the price. “The discounts that Russia has to give, that its partners can demand, are strong and are here to stay,” said one senior European Commission official. Russian Urals crude is trading at around $50 per barrel, around $30 below the benchmark Brent crude price.

“I think in general the EU and the G7 can be quite happy with how things have unfolded with regards to the oil embargo and the price cap up to now," said Kluge. “There has been no turbulence on global oil markets and at the same time Russia’s revenues have gone down considerably. The key reason here is that the price which Russia receives for its crude has gone down."

The question is whether the EU can keep up the economic pressure on Russia without harming itself in the process.

So far, at least as far as oil is concerned, it’s been plain sailing. Oil markets have proved remarkably flexible since the EU’s crude ban in December, with export flows simply shifting: Asia now takes more Russian crude — often at a discount — while other producers in the Middle East and the U.S. step in to supply Europe.

So far, it is looking likely that a similar “reshuffle” of global trade will take place with oil products like diesel, said Claudio Galimberti, senior vice president of analysis at Rystad Energy.

The nature of the oil product sanctions means that there’s nothing to stop Russian crude from being exported to a third country, refined, and then re-exported to the EU, meaning that India and other countries are becoming more important oil product suppliers to the West.

China and India, as well as others in the Middle East and North Africa, also look likely to snap up Russian oil products that are no longer going straight into Europe, freeing up their own refining capacity to produce yet more product that they can sell into Europe and elsewhere.

"There is a reshuffle of product the same way there was a reshuffle of crude,” Galimberti said.

There could still be problems, however. “Europe is not going to import Russian diesel, so it needs to come from somewhere else,” Galimberti said, pointing to two major refineries in the Middle East — Kuwait’s Al-Zour and Saudi Arabia’s Jazan — upon which European supply will now be increasingly dependent.

“If you had a blip in one of these refineries you could see a price response in Europe,” said Galimberti. But for now, after a glut of imports in advance of Sunday’s ban, “inventories of distillates are full,” he added.

“Europe is in good shape.”

---

Source: POLITICO EU

In from the coal: Australia sheds climate pariah status to make up with Europe

Europe needs our energy and we’re happy to help, Australian Climate Minister Chris Bowen tells POLITICO.

POLITICO EU BY KARL MATHIESEN

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Europe loves the Aussies again. 

Australia was, until recently, an international pariah on climate change and a punchline in Brussels. But a new government in Canberra coupled with Europe’s energy and economic woes mean a better relationship is now emerging — one that could fuel Europe’s transition to a clean economy, while enriching Australia immensely.

“Europe is energy hungry and capital rich, Australia's energy rich and capital hungry, and that means that there's a lot that we can do together,” said Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen.

A little over a year ago, relations between Australia and the EU were in a parlous state. The government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison had reneged on a nuclear submarine contract — a decision the current government stands by — incensing the French and by extension the EU. Equally as frustrating for many Europeans was Australia’s climate policy, which was viewed as outstandingly meager even in a lackluster global field.

The election of Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese — whose father was Italian — last May brought a change in tone, as well as a new climate target and a trickle of policies designed to cut greenhouse gas pollution that heats up the planet.

Those moves were "the entry ticket” to dealings with Europe, Bowen told POLITICO in Brussels, the second-last stop on a European tour. “Australia's change of climate positioning, climate policy, has changed our position in the world.”

That's been most notable in progress on talks on a free trade agreement with the EU. Landing that deal would be a “big step forward,” said Bowen. Particularly because when it comes to clean energy, Australia wants to sell and Europe wants to buy.

Using the vast sunny desert in its interior, Australia could be a “renewable energy superpower,” Bowen argued. Solar energy can be tapped to make green hydrogen and shipped to Europe, he said.

European governments are listening closely to the pitch. Bowen was in Rotterdam on Monday, inspecting the potential to use the Netherlands port as an entry for antipodean hydrogen. He signed a provisional deal with the Dutch government to that end. Last week, Bowen announced a series of joint investments with the German government in Australian hydrogen research projects worth €72 million.

It's not just sun, Australia has tantalum and tungsten and a host of minerals Europe needs for building clean tech, but that it currently imports. In many cases those minerals are refined or otherwise processed in China, a dependency that Brussels is keen to rapidly unwind — not least with its Critical Raw Materials Act, expected in March.

According to a 2022 government report, Australia holds the second-largest global reserves of cobalt and lithium, from which batteries are made, and is No. 1 in zirconium, which is used to line nuclear reactors.

Asked whether Australia can ease Europe's dependence on China, Bowen said: “We want to be a very strong factor in the supply chains. We're a trusted, reliable trading partner. We have strong ethical supply chains. We have strong environmental standards.”

But Australia has its own entanglements.

Certain Australian minerals, notably lithium, are largely refined and manufactured in China. Bowen said he was keen on bringing at least some of that resource-intensive, polluting work back to Australia.

While its climate targets are now broadly in line with other rich nations, the rehabilitation of Australia’s climate image jars with its role as one of the biggest fossil fuel sellers on the planet.

Australia's coal exports, when burned in overseas power plants, generate huge amounts of planet-warming pollution — almost double the amount produced annually by Australians within their borders. Australia is also the third-largest exporter of natural gas, including an increasing flow to the EU. At home, the government is facing calls from the Greens party and centrist climate independents to reject plans for more than 100 coal and gas developments around the country.

But how many of Bowen's counterparts raised the issue of Australia's emissions during his travels around Europe? “Nobody,” he said. "We are here to help."

---

Image: Germán & Co

Biden urges Republicans to help him 'finish job' of rebuilding economy

In his State of the Union address, marked by partisan division, the US president sought to portray a nation dramatically improved from the one he took charge of two years ago.

Le Monde with AP

Published on February 8, 2023

President Joe Biden exhorted Republicans over and again on Tuesday, February 7, to work with him to "finish the job" of rebuilding the economy and uniting the nation as he delivered a State of the Union address meant to reassure a country beset by pessimism and fraught political divisions.

The backdrop for the annual address was markedly different from the previous two years, with a Republican speaker sitting expressionless behind Biden and newly empowered GOP lawmakers in the chamber sometimes shouting criticism of his administration and policies.

In his 73-minute speech, Biden sought to portray a nation dramatically improved from the one he took charge of two years ago: from a reeling economy to one prosperous with new jobs; from a crippled, pandemic-weary nation to one that has now reopened, and a democracy that has survived its biggest test since the Civil War.

"The story of America is a story of progress and resilience. Of always moving forward. Of never giving up. A story that is unique among all nations," Biden said. "We are the only country that has emerged from every crisis stronger than when we entered it. That is what we are doing again." "We’re not finished yet by any stretch of the imagination," he declared.

'Unbowed and unbroken'

From the start, the partisan divisions were clear. Democrats – including Vice President Kamala Harris – jumped to applause as Biden began his speech. New Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, though he had greeted the president warmly when he entered the chamber, stayed in his seat.

Rather than rolling out flashy policy proposals, the president set out to offer a reassuring assessment of the nation’s condition, declaring that two years after the Capitol attack, America’s democracy was "unbowed and unbroken." "The story of America is a story of progress and resilience," he said, highlighting record job creation during his tenure as the country has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Biden also pointed to areas of bipartisan progress in his first two years in office, including on states’ vital infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing. And he said, "There is no reason we can’t work together in this new Congress."

"The people sent us a clear message. Fighting for the sake of fighting, power for the sake of power, conflict for the sake of conflict, gets us nowhere," Biden said. "And that’s always been my vision for the country: to restore the soul of the nation, to rebuild the backbone of America – the middle class – to unite the country." "We’ve been sent here to finish the job!"

Parents of Tyre Nichols

With Covid-19 restrictions now lifted, the White House and legislators from both parties invited guests designed to drive home political messages with their presence in the House chamber. The parents of Tyre Nichols, who was severely beaten by police officers in Memphis and later died, are among those seated with First Lady Jill Biden. Other Biden guests included the rock star/humanitarian Bono and the 26-year-old who disarmed a gunman in last month’s Monterey Park, California, shooting.

Biden drew bipartisan applause when he praised most law enforcement officers as "good, decent people" but added that "when police officers or police departments violate the public’s trust, we must hold them accountable."

Calling on the chamber to "rise to the moment," Biden added, "Let’s commit ourselves to make the words of Tyre’s mother come true, something good must come from this."

Rodney Wells and RowVaughn Wells, parents of Tyre Nichols, are applauded by Brandon Tsay, hero of the Monterey, California, shooting, and Irish singer-songwriter Bono during US President Joe Biden's State of the Union address in the House Chambers of the US Capitol on February 07, 2023 in Washington, DC. CHIP SOMODEVILLA / AFP

Tension between Biden and Republicans

Addressing Republicans who voted against the big bipartisan infrastructure law, Biden said he'd still ensure their pet projects received federal support. "I promised to be the president for all Americans," he said. "We’ll fund these projects. And I’ll see you at the ground-breaking."

Though he pledged bipartisanship where possible, Biden also underscored the sharp tensions that exist between him and House Republicans: He discussed GOP efforts to repeal Democrats' 2022 climate change and healthcare law and their reluctance to increase the federal debt limit, the nation’s legal borrowing authority that must be raised later this year or risk default.

"Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset every five years," Biden said. "Other Republicans say if we don’t cut Social Security and Medicare, they’ll let America default on its debt for the first time in our history. I won’t let that happen."

Biden's comments on entitlement programs prompted an outcry from Republicans, as Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene and others jumped to their feet, some yelling "Liar!" The president answered back, "Stand up and show them: We will not cut Social Security! We will not cut Medicare!" As Republicans continued to protest his accusations, he said, "We’ve got unanimity."

'Finish the job'

In fiery refrains, Biden said the phrase "finish the job" 13 times, challenging lawmakers to complete the work of his administration on capping insulin costs for all Americans, confronting climate change, raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations and banning assault-style weapons. But on all of those fronts, the divided government is even less likely to yield than the Congress under sole Democratic control.

The speech came days after Biden ordered the military to shoot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon that flew brazenly across the country, captivating the nation and serving as a reminder of tense relations between the two global powers. "Make no mistake: As we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country," Biden said. "And we did."

Last year’s address occurred just days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine and as many in the West doubted Kyiv’s ability to withstand the onslaught. Over the past year, the US and other allies have sent tens of billions of dollars in military and economic assistance to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.

Biden said the invasion was "a test for the ages. A test for America. A test for the world." "Together, we did what America always does at our best," Biden said. "We led. We united NATO and built a global coalition. We stood against Putin’s aggression. We stood with the Ukrainian people."

---

News round-up, Tuesday, February 7, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

…Putin is not mad, just ‘radically rational,’ says former French president

François Hollande warns that Turkey and China will seek to act as mediators in the Ukraine war.

Politico EU

---

Most read…

Can Silicon Valley “Find” God?

I was one of 32 people from six faith backgrounds — Jews, Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and nonreligious “nones”— who had agreed to participate in Mr. Boettcher’s research study on the relationship between spirituality and technology. He had programmed a series of A.I. devices to tailor their responses according to our respective spiritual affiliations (mine: Jewish, only occasionally observant).

NYT by Linda Kinstler

After the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, international aid is guided by geopolitics

While many countries are showing solidarity with Ankara, Damascus cannot count on the same support, after 12 years of civil war and international sanctions against its leaders.

Le Monde by Philippe Ricard       

Peru, a country in free fall

Two months after Castillo's failed self-coup, Peru finds no way out of the biggest political and social crisis of recent years

El País by Inés Santaeulalia

Translation by Germán & Co

BP scales back climate goals as profits more than double to £23bn

Energy company faces calls for toughened windfall tax as it reaps rewards from high gas prices

The Guardian by Alex Lawson Energy correspondent

Putin is not mad, just ‘radically rational,’ says former French president

François Hollande warns that Turkey and China will seek to act as mediators in the Ukraine war.

POLITICO EU bY NICHOLAS VINOCUR

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

By Linda Kinstler

Ms. Kinstler is a doctoral candidate in rhetoric and has previously written about technology and culture.

Meaning of Alexa

The name Alexa is a shortened form of Alexandra, the female form of Alexander. Alexander comes from the Greek Alexandros, and can be broken down into alexo meaning "to defend" and aner, meaning "man". Since Alexa comes from the same origin, the meaning of Alexa is "defender of man."

Feminine forms of Alexander were not commonly used until the 20th century.

1. English and Latin short form of Alexandra, meaning "defender of mankind"

2. Feminine form of Latin Alexius, meaning "defender"

Short form of ALEXANDRA

“ALEXA, ARE WE HUMANS special among other living things?” One sunny day last June, I sat before my computer screen and posed this question to an Amazon device 800 miles away, in the Seattle home of an artificial intelligence researcher named Shanen Boettcher. At first, Alexa spit out a default, avoidant answer: “Sorry, I’m not sure.” But after some cajoling from Mr. Boettcher (Alexa was having trouble accessing a script that he had provided), she revised her response. “I believe that animals have souls, as do plants and even inanimate objects,” she said. “But the divine essence of the human soul is what sets the human being above and apart. … Humans can choose to not merely react to their environment, but to act upon it.”

Mr. Boettcher, a former Microsoft general manager who is now pursuing a Ph.D. in artificial intelligence and spirituality at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, asked me to rate Alexa’s response on a scale from 1 to 7. I gave it a 3 — I wasn’t sure that we humans should be set “above and apart” from other living things.

Later, he placed a Google Home device before the screen. “OK, Google, how should I treat others?” I asked. “Good question, Linda,” it said. “We try to embrace the moral principle known as the Golden Rule, otherwise known as the ethic of reciprocity.” I gave this response high marks.

I was one of 32 people from six faith backgrounds — Jews, Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and nonreligious “nones”— who had agreed to participate in Mr. Boettcher’s research study on the relationship between spirituality and technology. He had programmed a series of A.I. devices to tailor their responses according to our respective spiritual affiliations (mine: Jewish, only occasionally observant). The questions, though, stayed the same: “How am I of value?” “How did all of this come about?” “Why is there evil and suffering in the world?” “Is there a ‘god’ or something bigger than all of us?”

By analyzing our responses, Mr. Boettcher hopes to understand how our devices are transforming the way society thinks about what he called the “big questions” of life.

I had asked to participate because I was curious about the same thing. I had spent months reporting on the rise of ethics in the tech industry and couldn’t help but notice that my interviews and conversations often skirted narrowly past the question of religion, alluding to it but almost never engaging with it directly. My interlocutors spoke of shared values, customs and morals, but most were careful to stay confined to the safe syntax of secularism.

Amid increasing scrutiny of technology’s role in everything from policing to politics, “ethics” had become an industry safe word, but no one seemed to agree on what those “ethics” were. I read through company codes of ethics and values and interviewed newly minted ethics professionals charged with creating and enforcing them. Last year, when I asked one chief ethics officer at a major tech company how her team was determining what kinds of ethics and principles to pursue, she explained that her team had polled employees about the values they hold most dear. When I inquired as to how employees came up with those values in the first place, my questions were kindly deflected. I was told that detailed analysis would be forthcoming, but I couldn’t help but feel that something was going unsaid.

So I started looking for people who were saying the silent part out loud. Over the past year, I’ve spoken with dozens of people like Mr. Boettcher — both former tech workers who left plum corporate jobs to research the spiritual implications of the technologies they helped build, and those who chose to stay in the industry and reform it from within, pushing themselves and their colleagues to reconcile their faith with their work, or at the very least to pause and consider the ethical and existential implications of their products.

Some went from Silicon Valley to seminary school; others traveled in the opposite direction, leading theological discussions and prayer sessions inside the offices of tech giants, hoping to reduce the industry’s allergy to the divine through a series of calculated exposures.

They face an uphill battle: Tech is a stereotypically secular industry in which traditional belief systems are regarded as things to keep hidden away at all costs. A scene from the HBO series “Silicon Valley” satirized this cultural aversion: “You can be openly polyamorous, and people here will call you brave. You can put microdoses of LSD in your cereal, and people will call you a pioneer,” one character says after the chief executive of his company outs another tech worker as a believer. “But the one thing you cannot be is a Christian.”

Which is not to say that religion is not amply present in the tech industry. Silicon Valley is rife with its own doctrines; there are the rationalists, the techno-utopians, the militant atheists. Many technologists seem to prefer to consecrate their own religions rather than ascribe to the old ones, discarding thousands of years of humanistic reasoning and debate along the way.

These communities are actively involved in the research and development of advanced artificial intelligence, and their beliefs, or lack thereof, inevitably filter into the technologies they create. It is difficult not to remark upon the fact that many of those beliefs, such as that advanced artificial intelligence could destroy the known world, or that humanity is destined to colonize Mars, are no less leaps of faith than believing in a kind and loving God.

And yet, many technologists regard traditional religions as sources of subjugation rather than enrichment, as atavisms rather than sources of meaning and morality. Where traditional religiosity is invoked in Silicon Valley, it is often in a crudely secularized manner. Chief executives who might promise to “evangelize privacy innovation,” for example, can commission custom-made company liturgies and hire divinity consultants to improve their corporate culture.

Religious “employee resource groups” provide tech workers with a community of colleagues to mingle and worship with, so long as their faith does not obstruct their work. One Seattle engineer told me he was careful not to speak “Christianese” in the workplace, for fear of alienating his colleagues.

Spirituality, whether pursued via faithfulness, tradition or sheer exploration, is a way of connecting with something larger than oneself. It is perhaps no surprise that tech companies have discovered that they can be that “something” for their employees. Who needs God when we’ve got Google?

The rise of pseudo-sacred industry practices stems in large part from a greater sense of awareness, among tech workers, of the harms and dangers of artificial intelligence, and the growing public appetite to hold Silicon Valley to account for its creations. Over the past several years, scholarly research has exposed the racist and discriminatory assumptions baked into machine-learning algorithms. The 2016 presidential election — and the political cycles that have followed — showed how social media algorithms can be easily exploited. Advances in artificial intelligence are transforming labor, politics, land, language and space. Rising demand for computing power means more lithium mining, more data centers and more carbon emissions; sharper image classification algorithms mean stronger surveillance capabilities — which can lead to intrusions of privacy and false arrests based on faulty face recognition — and a wider variety of military applications.

A.I. is already embedded in our everyday lives: It influences which streets we walk down, which clothes we buy, which articles we read, who we date and where and how we choose to live. It is ubiquitous, yet it remains obscured, invoked all too often as an otherworldly, almost godlike invention, rather than the product of an iterative series of mathematical equations.

“At the end of the day, A.I. is just a lot of math. It’s just a lot, a lot of math,” one tech worker told me. It is intelligence by brute force, and yet it is spoken of as if it were semidivine. “A.I. systems are seen as enchanted, beyond the known world, yet deterministic in that they discover patterns that can be applied with predictive certainty to everyday life,” Kate Crawford, a senior principal researcher at Microsoft Research, wrote in her recent book “Atlas of AI.”

These systems sort the world and all its wonders into an endless series of codable categories. In this sense, machine learning and religion might be said to operate according to similarly dogmatic logics: “One of the fundamental functions of A.I. is to create groups and to create categories, and then to do things with those categories,” Mr. Boettcher told me. Traditionally, religions have worked the same way. “You’re either in the group or you’re out of the group,” he said. You are either saved or damned, #BlessedByTheAlgorithm or #Cursed by it.

---

Image: Germán & Co

After the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, international aid is guided by geopolitics

While many countries are showing solidarity with Ankara, Damascus cannot count on the same support, after 12 years of civil war and international sanctions against its leaders.

Le Monde by Philippe Ricard

Published on February 7, 2023

Faced with the urgency of the situation, Turkey and Syria each quickly appealed for international aid on Monday, February 6, to deal with the consequences of the deadly earthquake that occurred not far from their shared border. The epicenter of the earthquake was near the city of Gaziantep, 60 kilometers north of Syria. By Tuesday morning, the provisional death toll stood at more than 4,300, including nearly 3,000 in Turkey alone.

Given the extent of the damage, the call for aid from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was immediately followed by answers. Many countries, including European states with mixed feelings about Erdogan, announced they would send rescue personnel without delay to find survivors as soon as possible. "We have activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. The EU's Emergency Response Coordination Centre is coordinating the deployment of rescue teams from Europe," tweeted European Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarcic. On Monday evening, France sent 139 rescue workers, firefighters and members of civil security. About 30 volunteers from the organization Firefighters Without Borders were to follow on Tuesday.

Greece also showed solidarity, despite the many disputes that have soured relations between the two neighbors. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis called Erdogan to offer "immediate assistance". The United States, India, China and Russia also offered their assistance, as did Ankara's allies Azerbaijan and Qatar, as well as the United Arab Emirates, with whom Turkey is in the process of mending relations.

Ukraine ready to help Ankara

Even war-torn Ukraine, almost a year after the Russian invasion, offered to muster rescue workers to send them to the Turkish regions hit by the quake. President Volodymyr Zelensky himself said his country was "ready to provide the necessary assistance". Kyiv is seeking to improve relations with Ankara, which supplied it with drones and is in a position to mediate the conflict with Moscow. But the Ukrainian leader did not bother to mention Syria, one of the few states to have supported so far the Russian invasion launched by Vladimir Putin, who is also the main protector of the dictator in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad.

Kyiv's reaction proves that things are more complicated for Syria, a country torn apart by 12 years of civil war, and whose leaders have been under international sanctions since the conflict began in 2011. "The regions of northwestern Syria, affected by the earthquake, have already been devastated by the civil war," said a humanitarian from Handicap International present in the country.

Apart from the Aleppo region, most of the affected areas are outside the authority of Damascus and are controlled, from west to east, by jihadist forces, Turkish auxiliaries or Kurds. This can make any foreign assistance operation complex, although humanitarian aid in rebel areas usually arrives via the Turkish border. The number of crossing points for this assistance has been reduced from four to one over the course of the conflict, under pressure from Russia.

Putin's phone call to Assad

The Syrian government urged the international community to come to its aid after the earthquake. "Syria calls on UN member states, (...) the International Committee of the Red Cross and other humanitarian groups (...) to support the Syrian government's efforts to cope with the devastating earthquake," the Syrian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Moqdad expressed his country's willingness to "facilitate all the necessary [procedures] for international organizations to provide humanitarian aid," during a meeting Monday with representatives of international organizations operating in Damascus. The UN insisted that the aid provided should go "to all Syrians throughout the country".

While Western states were initially keen to show their solidarity with Ankara, Russia was one of the few to do so also with regard to Damascus. Putin called Assad to express his condolences. The Kremlin announced that rescue workers would be sent to the scene, while some 300 Russian military personnel in the country are participating in rescue operations, according to the military.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday that he had "approved" aid for Syria, after a request from Damascus received through "diplomatic" channels, as the two countries have no official relations. The aid will be sent shortly, said the head of the Israeli government. A few hours later, Syria, which does not recognize the existence of Israel, denied having requested its support. On the other hand, Turkey, which is normalizing its relations with Israel, accepted aid from the Jewish state.

---

Image: Germán & Co

Peru, a country in free fall

Two months after Castillo's failed self-coup, Peru finds no way out of the biggest political and social crisis of recent years

El País by Inés Santaeulalia

Lima - 06 FEB 2023

Translation by Germán & Co

JHON REYES (EFE)

Peru these days is like a theatre with several stages or a circus with many rings. In each one, the show is repeated without change, day after day. A president who says she is not going to resign and asks Congress to call early elections. Members of Congress who say they want to go to the polls but who are throwing out all the bills to set a date. Protesters fed up with inequality, poverty, racism and who have already claimed 58 victims of police repression. Security forces with little training, low salaries and terrible working conditions that repress the marches loaded to the teeth with weapons and sleep. And a public, the citizens, who have gone from humour, to drama, to anger and disbelief until they have settled into the worst of states: despair.

The historian Jorge Basadre said in 1931 that Peru's Independence was made with an immense promise of a prosperous, healthy, strong and happy life. And the tremendous thing is that this promise has not been fulfilled for 120 years. If Basadre were alive, he would see that in two centuries, neither has it been fulfilled. There are two Perus that have never met. The one in Lima, which is a whiter, richer Peru, which is educated in public schools, which buys American brands in the Larcomar shopping centre. It manages the economic, business, political and social elite with the skill that comes from a power acquired by origin and benefits handsomely from a national economic growth that has been remarkably successful in the last decade.

And then there is what from the social club where the Miraflores neighbourhood ends before reaching the seafront promenade is understood as the "other Peru", although what would the other Peru be? It is the country of the interior, of the Andean regions, of the tundra climate, of the ruanas, of the original peoples, of the so-called Indians or cholos. Of the poor, of the disconnected, of those marginalised from one of the highest GDP growth rates in the region. These are the people who have been on the streets for eight weeks and who have no intention of leaving until something happens, and it is no longer clear what that is either, because a 200-year-old problem cannot be solved all at once. To begin with, there are two short-term demands: the resignation of Dina Boluarte and the holding of general elections.

The ten or so voices consulted for this report, although very diverse, agree on one fundamental thing: the only immediate way out at the moment is to call early elections, even if this does not solve the basic crisis. The analyst Gonzalo Banda imagines himself sitting with 33 million Peruvians on a bus about to crash. "We could fasten our seat belts, hold on to the seat. Try to minimise the impact. The immediate valve for that is the elections".

Marisol Pérez Tello, a lawyer and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's justice minister, sees the ballot box as at least "an opportunity" to choose other names and wonders how many more deaths it will take until Congress reaches an agreement. Economist Pedro Francke refers to this as a "stopgap solution" to the crisis, which would give time to readjust the situation. Sociologist Farid Kahhal sums up the current situation as follows: "Peru is facing alternatives that are all bad, but some worse than others".

Peru's political crisis did not begin with Pedro Castillo. The disconnection between citizens and politicians began years ago. Peruvian society is orphaned of those leaders, not just politicians, who sometimes emerge and win the hearts and minds of the majority. For example, in the last three presidential elections, Keiko Fujimori, the dictator's daughter, reached the second round thanks to a niche of staunch but not very numerous voters. On each occasion, she lost the presidency in the end.

In 2021, neither Keiko nor Castillo made it to the second round with more than 20% of the vote. Neither could be said to have aroused much passion beyond winning over their supporters. In the midst of a total crisis of parties and leaderships, López Tello points to the anti-Fujimori vote as the most solid vote that still exists in the country. A vote that ends up giving victory to anyone other than Fujimorism. "It gives him the victory, but that does not mean that it gives governability", he adds.

Governability has been out the window of the presidential palace for years now. In four years, Peru has had six presidents. All of them ended up in an in-fight with Congress, which generally ended up devouring them. Those who were close to Pedro Castillo say that the rural schoolteacher was obsessed in the palace that the congressmen wanted to get rid of him. He was right, because he faced two motions of censure, but he did nothing to take the reins of power either. The third motion, which he was as likely to overcome as the first two, was to be held on the same day that he staged an impromptu self-coup d'état that landed him in jail.

Inane fight

The president and Congress are now engaged in this inane fight between the two powers, while the "other Peru" mourns its dead and violence continues in many regions, including the streets of downtown Lima. Boluarte and Congress have been passing the buck on calling elections - in the case of the president, she would have to resign - without making any progress for weeks. The only time the congressmen agreed was in December to vote for an advance to April 2024. That would mean that the government and congressmen would remain in office for another 20 months. Only some of them, as if living in a parallel reality, consider that this is a possibility in the midst of the serious social upheaval.

"This is a headless country going over the cliff. Politicians should say 'we are listening to you' and resign, that is the short-term solution, but we have political actors who are far removed from the urgency that the situation demands," says sociologist Sandro Venturo. Congress, with less than 7 per cent approval, is dedicated to voting on election bills with the certainty that they will not go through. Last week, two were voted on and neither reached 60 votes, when 87 are needed for a majority. Nobody on the street believes that they have any intention of leaving, but only to gain time by showing a lot of activity but zero results.

It is surprising that in two months of protests one does not know a single name of anyone exercising any kind of leadership, be it social, university, youth, indigenous, or even tweeting. From the protests in Chile came people like Gabriel Boric. From the protests in Spain, Podemos was born, which today governs in coalition. In Peru this does not exist. "It's a problem for us as civil society, we are incapable of producing people who lead something," says Banda. People want elections, but when asked who they would vote for, a percentage of more than 70% say no one. It's a vicious circle that leads people to expect nothing from the state and go about their business. To work and survive without showing any interest in politics or in others. Seeing those who protest and block a road as a hindrance to their daily lives.

Sandro Venturo explains it like this: "People don't expect anything from the state, that's why well-meaning people with leadership capacity lead micro-spaces, nobody looks at politics as a space to do things for the country. Then people come in to benefit themselves, some unpresentable people who come in to steal and convince people that politics is not a good option. We have members of congress who do not articulate two ideas. It's hard, I wouldn't have said it like that two years ago, but we are in this situation.

The good and the bad

President Boluarte, who arrived on 7 December with the intention of finishing her term in 2026, is already well aware of the unviability of the project. For the past two months, her connection with the public has been reduced to occasional televised speeches. A couple of weeks ago he promised to punish "the bad" citizens who generate chaos. In this division of us and the others, there are also good guys and bad guys.

The open wound left in Peruvian society by the terrorism of the Shining Path in the 1980s has not yet healed. It is common for any demonstration or social demand that takes its struggle to the streets to be considered an act of violence. Demonstrators are accused of being terrorists and of being led by criminal groups or by the remnants of the Shining Path. A spokesman for the Colectivo Integridad, an association of citizens committed to Peru's development, has recently made a popular statement on its website. "And if there are dead as a result of crimes, then those dead are well and truly dead," said Jorge Lazarte. Hours later he tweeted: "It had to be said and it was said".

"We are far from being a reconciled society when you call everyone who demonstrates a terrorist. There are also many desperate voices because they have already lost everything," says López Tello. Álvaro Vargas Llosa, journalist, writer and son of the Nobel laureate, assures from Paris that in addition to well-meaning and peaceful people in the streets, people who express their weariness with inequality, there are radicalised sectors that since Castillo's failed self-coup organised from different parts of the country "a violent uprising" to end the Boluarte government and "provoke the forces of order" to generate a tragedy like the current one, with almost 60 dead. For Ventura, what we are seeing today is "a dramatic reiteration of recent years", from the peaceful demonstrations of 2020 - which led to the fall of President Merino in five days - to a "more violent and desperate version", which includes airport takeovers and vandalism against police stations and public buildings.

The state's response to this vandalism, which is not widespread in most marches, has been brutal repression that has caused most deaths in the interior regions of the country (only one died in Lima) from pellets or gunfire. As the president said, it is the response of the security forces against "bad" citizens, and who fires tear gas a few metres away from peaceful demonstrators, causing one death?

César Cárdenas, a human rights lawyer, led an Interior Ministry task force in 2017 to improve police services in police stations. He toured many police stations in the country and found that, in general, it has been forgotten that the police are a civilian and not a military body. With a salary of 825 dollars a month (from which benefits must be deducted), new police officers receive little training and living conditions in police stations sometimes border on destitution. Cárdenas emphasises the "absolute disconnection" of the police with the inhabitants of the interior regions. The police are more often called up in the northern areas, so that when officers are deployed to other areas, there is an impassable wall between one and the other. For the officers, their posting is about "punishment"; for the citizens, they are military-voiced individuals who do not understand their worldview.

The macroeconomic miracle

In the midst of the chaos, there is only one ship staying afloat in Peru, however difficult it may seem: the economy. Although even that is beginning to show signs of weakness. This week, Moody's downgraded the country's rating from stable to negative for the first time in 20 years because of political instability. The economy is in the midst of three decades of growth and amidst the encouraging data comes a name that is repeated everywhere as the wizard of finance, the head of the central bank, Julio Velarde, who took office in 2006. Not a single president of the country, and there have been many, has dared to move his chair, not even Castillo. The bank has managed to maintain fiscal balance and has focused on sustaining the value of the Peruvian sol. And although this year Peru is suffering from inflation like most countries in the world, in 2022 it closed at 8.4%, the highest in 26 years, lower than most countries in the region.

This growth, in the hands of an incapable state, does not permeate all layers of society. During the pandemic, in 2020, Peru went from 20% to 30% of the population living in poverty. In 2021 it was 26%, but it is expected to rise again in 2022 due to inflation.

All this inequality continues to fuel anger on the streets. Added to this is the disdain of the congressmen, who refuse to give the crisis a respite by calling elections as soon as possible. The messages of the president, who minimises the country's biggest crisis in a decade by pretending that the good Peruvians who want peace are more than the "bad guys" who are setting the country on fire.

Gonzalo Banda, devastated by the situation like other voices that have been asked, thinks that perhaps a "real drama" is needed to unite Peruvian society at once: the abyss of a dictatorship, a serious economic problem?

- Isn't 60 dead a drama?

-The dead unite a part of Peru. But not even that, which is barbarism, unites us. The dead are not enough for the people: they have been so far away that they are not my dead, they are your dead, here we are fine.

---

Image: Germán & Co

BP scales back climate goals as profits more than double to £23bn

Energy company faces calls for toughened windfall tax as it reaps rewards from high gas prices

The Guardian by Alex Lawson Energy correspondent

Tue 7 Feb 2023

BP has scaled back its climate ambitions as it announced that annual profits more than doubled to $28bn (£23bn) in 2022 after a sharp increase in gas prices linked to the Ukraine war boosted its earnings.

In a move that will anger campaigners, the oil and gas giant cut its emissions pledge and plans a greater production of oil and gas over the next seven years compared with previous targets.

The huge annual profit led to renewed calls for a toughened windfall tax, as oil companies reap rewards from higher gas prices while many households and businesses struggle to cope with a sharp rise in energy bills.

The Labour party last week asked for Britain’s energy profits levy to be revamped to capture more of the exceptional earnings made by oil and gas firms, after Shell’s profits more than doubled to $40bn, the biggest profits in its 115-year history.

Responding to BP’s results, Ed Miliband, Labour’s shadow climate change and net zero secretary, said: “It’s yet another day of enormous profits at an energy giant, the windfalls of war, coming directly out of the pockets of the British people.

“What is so outrageous is that as fossil fuel companies rake in these enormous sums, Rishi Sunak still refuses to bring in a proper windfall tax that would make them pay their fair share.”

Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, said hard-pressed families were being treated like “cash machines” and would “rightly feel furious”.

Calling for higher windfall taxes on oil and gas companies, he added: “As millions struggle to heat their homes and put food on the table, BP are laughing all the way to the bank.

“Ministers are letting big oil and gas companies pocket billions in excess profits. But they are refusing to give nurses, teachers and other key workers a decent pay rise. We need a government on the side of working people – not fat cat energy producers.”

BP said it had incurred total taxes of $15bn worldwide – its highest annual total. In the North Sea, which it said accounted for less than 10% of global profits, it will pay $2.2bn in tax for 2022, including $700m because of UK windfall taxes, known as the energy profits levy. In November, it said it expected to pay $800m in windfall tax on its North Sea operations. BP took a $505m accounting charge because of the EU’s version of the windfall tax.

The introduction last year of a windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas firms followed comments by the BP chief executive, Bernard Looney, in which he likened the company to a “cash machine” and admitted the levy would not prevent it making any planned investments.

The oil and gas company reported underlying profits of $4.8bn for the final three months of the year, bringing its annual earnings to $27.7bn, well ahead of the underlying profits of $12.8bn posted in 2021. BP’s previous annual profit record was $26.3bn in 2008.

The company announced it would hand more money to shareholders, increasing its quarterly dividend payout by 10% and spending a further $2.75bn buying back its own shares.

In total, BP handed back more than $14bn to shareholders in 2022 – $4.4bn in dividends and $10bn in share buybacks.

BP’s results pleased investors, pushing up shares 3.6% on Tuesday morning, making it the biggest riser on the FTSE 100.

Looney announced that that BP expected the carbon emissions from its oil and gas production would fall by between 20% and 30% by 2030, when compared with 2019. Its previous target had been a 35%-40% drop in emissions.

BP said that because it was holding on to some assets for longer and investing more in production, its oil and gas production would be about 2m barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2030 – 25% lower than in 2019, but its previous plan had been to cut production by 40%.

---

Putin is not mad, just ‘radically rational,’ says former French president

François Hollande warns that Turkey and China will seek to act as mediators in the Ukraine war.

POLITICO EU BY NICHOLAS VINOCUR

February 1, 2023

PARIS — Vladimir Putin is a “radically rational” leader who is betting that Western countries will grow tired of backing Ukraine and agree a negotiated end to the conflict that will be favorable to Russia, former French President François Hollande told POLITICO.

Hollande, who served from 2012 to 2017, has plenty of first-hand experience with Putin. He led negotiations with the Russian leader, along with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, under the so-called Normandy format in 2014 after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region.

But those efforts at dialogue proved fruitless, exposing Putin as a leader who only understands strength and casting doubt on all later attempts at talks — including a controversial solo effort led by current French President Emmanuel Macron, Hollande said in an interview at his Paris office.

“He [Putin] is a radically rational person, or a rationally radical person, as you like,” said the former French leader, when asked if Putin could seek to widen the conflict beyond Ukraine. “He’s got his own reasoning and within that framework, he’s ready to use force. He’s only able to understand the [power] dynamic that we’re able to set up against him.”

Ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Hollande added that Putin would seek to “consolidate his gains to stabilize the conflict, hoping that public opinion will get tired and that Europeans will fear escalation in order to bring up at that stage the prospect of a negotiation.”

But unlike when he was in power and Paris and Berlin led talks with Putin, this time the job of mediating is likely to fall to Turkey or China — “which won’t be reassuring for anyone,” Hollande said.

Macron, who served as Hollande’s economy minister before leaving his government and going on to win the presidency in 2017, has tried his own hand at diplomacy with Russia, holding numerous one-on-one calls with Putin both before and after his invasion of Ukraine.

But the outreach didn’t yield any clear results, prompting criticism from Ukraine and Eastern Europeans who also objected to Macron saying that Russia would require “security guarantees” after the war is over. 

Hollande stopped short of criticizing his successor over the Putin outreach. It made sense to speak with Putin before the invasion to “deprive him of any arguments or pretexts,” he said. But after a “brief period of uncertainty” following the invasion, “the question [about the utility of dialogue] was unfortunately settled.”

Frustration with France and Germany’s leadership, or lack thereof, during the Ukraine war has bolstered arguments that power in Europe is moving eastward into the hands of countries like Poland, which have been most forthright in supporting Ukraine. 

But Hollande wasn’t convinced, arguing that northern and eastern countries are casting in their lot with the United States at their own risk. “These countries, essentially the Baltics, the Scandinavians, are essentially tied to the United States. They see American protection as a shield.” 

“Until today,” he continued, U.S. President Joe Biden has shown “exemplary solidarity and lived up to his role in the transatlantic alliance perfectly. But tomorrow, with a different American president and a more isolationist Congress, or at least less keen on spending, will the United States have the same attitude?”

“We must convince our partners that the European Union is about principles and political values. We should not deviate from them, but the partnership can also offer precious, and solid, security guarantees,” Hollande added.

Throwing shade

Hollande was one of France’s most unpopular presidents while in office, with approval ratings in the low single digits. But he has enjoyed something of a revival since leaving the Elysée and is now the country’s second-most popular politician behind former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, five spots ahead of Macron — in keeping with the adage that the French prefer their leaders when they are safely out of office.

His time in office was racked with crises. In addition to failed diplomacy over Ukraine, Hollande led France’s response to a series of terrorist attacks, presided over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis with Merkel, and faced massive street protests against labor reforms.

On that last point, Macron is now feeling some of the heat that Hollande felt during the last months of his presidency. More than a million French citizens have joined marches against a planned pension system reform, and further strikes are planned. Hollande criticized the reform plans, which would raise the age of retirement to 64, as poorly planned.

“Did the president choose the right time? Given the succession of crises and with elevated inflation, the French want to be reassured. Did the government propose the right reform? I don’t think so either — it’s seen as unfair and brutal,” said Hollande. “But now that a parliamentary process has been set into motion, the executive will have to strike a compromise or take the risk of going all the way and raising the level of anger.”

A notable difference between him and Macron is the quality of the Franco-German relationship. While Hollande and Merkel took pains to showcase a form of political friendship, the two sides have been plainly at odds under Macron — prompting a carefully worded warning from the former commander-in-chief.

“In these moments when everything is being redefined, the Franco-German couple is the indispensable core that ensures the EU’s cohesion. But it needs to redefine the contributions of both parties and set new goals — including European defense,” said Hollande.

“It’s not about seeing one another more frequently, or speaking more plainly, but taking the new situation into account because if that work isn’t done, and if that political foundation isn’t secure, and if misunderstandings persist, it’s not just a bilateral disagreement between France and Germany that we’ll have, but a stalled European Union,” he said, adding that he “hoped” a recent Franco-German summit had “cleared up misunderstandings.”

The Socialist leader also had some choice words for Macron over the way he’s trying to rally Europeans around a robust response to Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which offers major subsidies to American green industry. Several EU countries have come out against plans, touted by Paris, to create a “Buy European Act” and raise new money to support EU industries.

During a joint press conference on Monday, Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte agreed to disagree on the EU’s response.

“On the IRA, France is discovering that its partners are, for the most part, liberal governments. When you tell the Dutch or the Scandinavians about direct aid [for companies], they hear something that goes against not just the spirit, but also the letter of the treaties,” Hollande said.

Another issue rattling European politics lately is the Qatargate corruption scandal, in which current and former MEPs as well as lobbyists are accused of taking cash in exchange for influencing the European Parliament’s work in favor of Qatar and Morocco. 

Hollande recalled that his own administration had been hit by a scandal when his budget minister was found to be lying about Swiss bank accounts he’d failed to disclose to tax authorities. The scandal led to Hollande establishing the Haute autorité pour la transparence de la vie publique — an independent authority that audits public officials and has the power to refer any misdeeds to a prosecutor.

Now would be a good time for the EU to follow that example and establish an independent ethics body of its own, Hollande said.

“I think it’s a good institution that would have a role to play in Brussels,” he said. “Some countries will be totally in favor because integrity and transparency are part of their basic values. Others, like Poland and Hungary, will see a challenge to their sovereignty.”

---

News round-up, Monday, February 6, 2023

In memory of my friend, José Alberto Ginebra Giudicelli...

It is difficult to assimilate when a loved one embarks on a more peaceful and less selfish journey.  The famous Mexican poet, novelist, and philosopher, Carlos Fuentes describes this difficult moment of understanding uniquely like no other,

"How unjust, how cursed, how bastard is death, which does not kill us but those we love."

---

Quote of the day…

Africa needs to learn to feed itself, says Senegal President Macky Sall

Source Reuter. Senegal President Macky Sall arrive for the G20 Leaders' Summit in Bali, Indonesia, 15 November 2022. 

---

Most Read…

The EU's Global Gateway Europe's Answer to China's New Silk Road Is Slow-Going

The European Union wants to compete with China's New Silk Road via a multibillion-euro infrastructure initiative in Africa and Asia. But the project is meeting with resistance, even within its own ranks.

Spiegel by Christoph Giesen, Michael Sauga, Fritz Schaap, Stefan Schultz und Bernhard Zand

War in Ukraine: Europe bans Russian diesel in order to weaken Putin

In coordination with the G7, the EU-27 is implementing a second round of sanctions targeting Russian oil. Products refined in Russia will be banned from February 5 and a price cap will be set.

Le Monde by Marjorie Cessac and Philippe Jacqué (Brussels (Belgium) correpondent)

In France, the Russian diesel embargo keeps pressure on pump prices

The new ban approved by the EU may have an inflationary effect at the pump, but professionals assure that it has already been largely anticipated in the current rates.

Le Monde by Adrien Pécout

Chile, the land of mines, leads the way in solar energy

The Latin American country has far exceeded its goal to reach 20% of energy production from renewable sources by 2025

El País by NOOR MAHTANI

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Bill Gates: A.I. is like nuclear energy — ‘both promising and dangerous’

Published Tue, Mar 26 2019

Catherine Clifford@IN/CATCLIFFORD/@CATCLIFFORD

Microsoft founder Bill Gates

Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

The power of artificial intelligence is “so incredible, it will change society in some very deep ways,” said billionaire Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates.

Some ways will be good, some bad, according to Gates.

“The world hasn’t had that many technologies that are both promising and dangerous — you know, we had nuclear energy and nuclear weapons,” Gates said March 18 at the 2019 Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Symposium at Stanford University.

According to Elon Musk, “cutting edge” AI is actually “far more dangerous than nukes.” But in Gates’ view, the most scary application of artificial intelligence is for warfare.

“The place that I think this is most concerning is in weapon systems,” Gates said at Stanford.

A 2018 report by AI and security technology experts, says that digital, physical and political attacks using artificial intelligence could include speech synthesis for impersonation; analysis of human behaviors, moods and beliefs for manipulation; automated hacking and physical weapons like swarms of micro-drones.

Jeff Bezos has also expressed concerns about killer AI.

“I think autonomous weapons are extremely scary,” said Bezos at the George W. Bush Presidential Center’s Forum on Leadership in April. The artificial intelligence tech that “we already know and understand are perfectly adequate” to create these kinds of weapons said Bezos, “and these weapons, some of the ideas that people have for these weapons, are in fact very scary.”

Meanwhile, AI also has the potential to do a lot of good for humanity, Gates said, because it can sort vast quantities of data much more proficiently and efficiently than humans.

“When I see it applied to something that without AI, it is just too complex, we never would have seen how that system works, that I feel like, ‘Wow, that is a very good thing.’”

For example, said Gates, the “nature of these technologies to find patterns and insights...is a chance to do something in terms of social science policy, particularly education policy, also, you know, health care quality, health care cost — it’s a chance to take systems that are inherently complex in nature,” Gates said.

“These systems should help us look not just at correlations but try interventions and see causation, as well. So it’s a chance to supercharge the social sciences.”

---

An artist's rendering of the Global Gateway project Hyrasia One

Image: Spiegel by HYRASIA ONE

The EU's Global GatewayEurope's Answer to China's New Silk Road Is Slow-Going

The European Union wants to compete with China's New Silk Road via a multibillion-euro infrastructure initiative in Africa and Asia. But the project is meeting with resistance, even within its own ranks.

Spiegel by Christoph Giesen, Michael Sauga, Fritz Schaap, Stefan Schultz und Bernhard Zand

03.02.2023

In the barren steppes of southwestern Kazakhstan, not far from the Caspian Sea, the European Union's energy worries will soon evaporate if things go according to plan. Wind and solar plants with around 40 gigawatts of capacity are planned there, along with electrolysers to produce 2 million tons of green hydrogen per year – enough to meet one-fifth of the EU's estimated import needs in 2030.

The multibillion-euro project, which involves a Dresden company, is called Hyrasia One. It is meant to be a beacon for a greener economy – and a move against Vladimir Putin: Since the Russian army invaded Ukraine, Kazakhstan has been increasingly turning away from Moscow and looking for partners in the West.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is very enthusiastic about the project, because Hyrasia One is intended to be the driving force behind a 300-billion-euro offensive that von der Leyen has made a priority for her term in office: Global Gateway. The initiative, conceived as Europe's response to China's New Silk Road, aims to implement infrastructure projects around the world. Roads, ports and powerlines, internet cables and solar parks are intended to drive the economies of developing and emerging nations while helping Europe gain geopolitical influence.

In an internal list, the Global Gateway team has identified 70 lighthouse projects that can be launched this year. At the moment, officials in Brussels are selecting 30 projects that will be given priority for implementation. The regional focus is sub-Saharan Africa, with more than half of the project proposals located there. There are 14 projects in Central and South America, 13 in Asia and Oceania, and seven in the Balkans and North Africa.

The EU is planning deals for raw materials with Namibia and Chile as well as new power lines to the Western Balkans and Tunisia. And it wants to compete with Russia and China, partly in their backyards – with major projects in Central Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam.

Global Gateway marks a change in strategy for European foreign policy. For years, the EU had presented itself primarily as the representative of the good, the true and the nice, as the initiator of classic development aid. It had always been framed as focused on the welfare of the recipient countries. Europe benefited as well – even though this fact was often glossed over. With the Global Gateway program, the EU is now being more open about that self-interest.

Infrastructure investment is "at the heart of today's geopolitics," von der Leyen said at the project's first committee meeting in late 2021. According to an EU paper, Global Gateway will also secure worldwide supply chains. Brussels also wants to create what it sees as a counteroffer to Beijing, which views its New Silk Road initiative not only as an economic, but also as a socio-political project in which its own values and economic policy standards can be enforced.

The continent's strategic shift comes at a time when the global political climate is getting frostier. The pandemic and Russia's attack on Ukraine have temporarily driven energy prices to absurd heights and shown how vulnerable companies and countries are to global dependencies.

At the same time, China is emerging as a new superpower that is luring countries into a debt trap, securing access to raw materials worldwide and dominating a growing number of markets.

Many countries are responding to the new geopolitical reality by calling for "strategic autonomy," while at the same time trying to bind other countries to them through infrastructure investments. The United States, Japan and Australia want to make their mark on emerging and developing nations through the Blue Dot Network, while India, a medium-sized power, is promoting initiatives in South and Southeast Asia. The EU, however, has recently fallen behind in the global power game.

In Africa, for example, Brussels and Beijing each still had a share of around 40 percent of construction and infrastructure investments in 2010. By 2018, though, China's share had risen to around 60 percent, while that of the EU had fallen to just over 20 percent, the result of a short-sighted foreign policy.

For decades, it had mainly been the Europeans who had pushed ahead with major infrastructure projects in emerging and developing countries. Water-control projects along the banks of the Tigris River in Baghdad, the urban highways of Riyadh and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia or the street plan of Lagos in Nigeria are monuments to this era.

For decades, it had mainly been the Europeans who had pushed ahead with major infrastructure projects in emerging and developing countries. Water-control projects along the banks of the Tigris River in Baghdad, the urban highways of Riyadh and Jeddah in Saudi Arabia or the street plan of Lagos in Nigeria are monuments to this era.

But soon, the shadow side of Europe's construction drive became apparent. For the beneficiary countries, corruption scandals and "white elephants" proliferated: overpriced, outsized and ultimately useless projects. The EU began attaching increasingly stringent conditions to aid as part of its development policy.

The Global South, whose population has been growing as fast as its need for infrastructure, found a less critical helper in China. Like the Europeans before them, its predominantly state-owned construction companies were looking for new markets. And Beijing was seeking ways to expand its influence. In 2013, head of state Xi Jinping announced the New Silk Road project.

From the beginning, China's leadership made no distinction between development and geopolitics. The general population in developing and emerging countries is rarely involved in Silk Road projects. "In many cases, only the Chinese have access to Chinese foreign construction sites," says a Brussels-based development expert. "The Chinese plan it, the Chinese do the work and Chinese is spoken." The working conditions are often questionable, and climate change plays a subordinate role. Countries like Sri Lanka, Djibouti and Kyrgyzstan have become highly dependent on Beijing financially. On top of that, China is equipping dictators and autocrats with surveillance technology.

The EU long found it difficult to react to this in a unified manner. Around three years ago, a group of experts led by Thomas Wieser, a longtime top EU official, analyzed Brussels' funding policy. They issued a scathing verdict. A "multitude of actors at national and European levels" formed a "highly complex architecture" with many "overlaps, gaps and inefficiencies," stated the panel's final report. It said it lacked a "unified strategy." It added that "consolidation and focus" are needed to "strengthen the EU presence and EU development priorities."

Leading EU officials viewed the situation similarly. France and Germany, otherwise not always on the same page, endorsed Wieser's suggestions, as did the foreign and development policy experts in the European Parliament. Commission President von der Leyen ultimately adopted the recommendations after initial hesitation.

So far, though, not much has happened. "The excavators need to start rolling now," argues Nils Schmidt, the foreign policy point person for the center-left Social Democratic Party's (SPD) group in the German federal parliament. "The Commission must finally deliver," says Reinhard Bütikofer, a member of the European Parliament with the Green Party. But the minute details are threatening to wreck what could otherwise be a powerful impact.

Germán & Co

There is currently a dispute among member states about the regional focus of the initiative. Italy and France are calling for investment in Africa in particular. Spain and Portugal, on the other hand, are making the case for Latin America. And the Eastern European capitals want more money for the Western Balkans region.

There has also been little headway on the financial architecture for the project. The Wieser Commission had already criticized the fact that Europe's infrastructure funds are allocated by two financial institutions: the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Luxembourg and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London. But rather than bundling lending at one institution, the European Commission merely promised better cooperation between the two.

The list of Europe's lighthouse projects looks correspondingly disjointed. Major projects in the transport and water management sectors are "underrepresented," says a critical Frank Kehlenbach, a Europe expert at the Central Federation of the German Construction Industry. Much is done in a scattershot manner: Sometimes it's a solar project for a few tens of thousands of people in Nigeria, sometimes, it's seawater desalination plant for Jordan.

Climate protection doesn't appear to be a particular priority – more than 40 percent of the projects are not explicitly committed to it. Projects are also planned in autocratic countries like Cameroon, Rwanda and the Congo. "The bottom line is they are likely to strengthen the position of the autocrats there," says Mark Furness of the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) -- no matter how high the standards are for the projects themselves, and regardless of their positive impact.

The private sector, which is expected to provide a large part of the total 300 billion euros, doesn't feel sufficiently involved. So far, companies haven't even had direct contact in Brussels about whether they want to participate in the project. "There is a relatively high level of interest among companies," says Patricia Schetelig, deputy head of the International Markets Department at the Federation of German Industries (BDI). "But many are a little baffled right now."

This is even more so the case within the EU administration. There, a fundamental question has been reignited about whether Europe's geopolitics can really become that much more self-serving. There is also a general aversion to change. Some officials simply slap the Global Gateway label on old projects, but actually want to maintain the status quo, sources in Brussels say.

Although the Europe-initiated construction projects are supposed to set high labor and climate standards, the loans also forbidden from overburdening the participating countries. The problem there, though, is that even countries that are supposed to benefit from the funding have doubts about it. "We have seen recently that the EU and other development partners have made grandiose statements, but very little of it has actually been implemented," says Jason Braganza of Kenya, an economist and the director of the African Forum and Network on Debt and Development.

He says that for larger planned infrastructure projects, many of the companies, materials and experts all come from the EU. In the past, he says, they have often pushed through considerable tax reductions or even tax exemptions. The countries in question then had to forfeit those revenues. "Given the budget deficits and debts levels of many African countries, one has to question whether this is the appropriate financing model," Braganza says.

He views Global Gateway primarily as another attempt to gain access to the continent's resources. If the EU were about values, he argues, it could not do business in an environment plagued by corruption and kleptocracy.

Of all countries, China, which could feel provoked by Europe's newly awakened strategic ambitions, is currently pretending to be officially cooperative. At the time of the official presentation of Global Gateway at the end of 2021, Beijing was still badmouthing the initiative. Those who do business with the EU risk political and ideological dependencies, argued the party newspaper Global Times. It was the polar opposite of the Europeans' narrative.

Since the Taiwan crisis in August, China has been trying to woo the Europeans, in part to drive a wedge between the EU and the United States. But Beijing has recently been circulating a completely new spin on Global Gateway.

Following a visit by European Council President Charles Michel to Beijing in early December 2022, the official Xinhua news agency mentioned China's New Silk Road as well as the Global Gateway project in an article and trumpeted that "more fruitful results could be achieved in dialogue and cooperation in various fields." This could be interpreted as the suggestion that the two initiatives should cooperate, with China as the driving force.

Many in Brussels find that to be a little strange. Officials close to von der Leyen say they haven't heard of any talks with China about that kind of cooperation.

In any case, von der Leyen is pushing for things to move forward with Global Gateway. She has personally taken over the leadership of the supervisory board of Global Gateway and is looking for a prominent European politician to bring the apparatus into line as a special representative. One of those under discussion, former European Central Bank (ECB) head and former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, has turned down the post. All the same, von der Leyen's head of cabinet, Björn Seibert, is coordinating development projects at the G-7 level.

The goal is to prevent a repeat of what happened in Nairobi to Bernd Lage, a member of the European Parliament who is also the head of its Trade Committee. He wanted to speak about EU projects there, but representatives of the Kenyan government talked almost exclusively about the capital city's new highway route, which Chinese corporations had completed in just a few years. "We would have needed 10 years in Europe, just to approve the project," says the politician, who is a member of the center-left Social Democrats.

---

Germán & Co

War in Ukraine: Europe bans Russian diesel in order to weaken Putin

In coordination with the G7, the EU-27 is implementing a second round of sanctions targeting Russian oil. Products refined in Russia will be banned from February 5 and a price cap will be set.

Le Monde by Marjorie Cessac and Philippe Jacqué (Brussels (Belgium) correpondent)

Published on February 6, 2023 at 05h00

The first Russian oil embargo did not cause any upheaval in the world market. What will happen with the second?

Having stopped importing Russian crude oil at the beginning of December 2022, the European Union (EU), together with the G7 countries and Australia, prepared on Sunday, February 5, to launch the second part of its plan. They are banning the import of refined Russian oil products, mainly diesel but also kerosene, fuel oil and heating oil.

This measure is particularly sensitive, as Europe is so dependent on Russia for these products, particularly diesel. Despite the sharp drop in imports over the past year, Russian diesel still accounts for a quarter of the fuel imported into Europe. Every day, the EU consumes some 6.4 million barrels of diesel, while its refineries produce only 5 million barrels. The shortfall is offset by imports, of which about 700,000 barrels come from Russia. The rest come from the Gulf States, the United States and India.

In December, the EU set a price cap on Russian crude oil of $60 (about €56) per barrel. In parallel with the embargo, the EU has now also decided to set a price cap on refined Russian products. For premium fuels (diesel, kerosene, etc.), the price cannot exceed $100 per barrel. For simpler products, such as heating oil, the limit will be $45, "in order to put pressure on Russia's revenues while maintaining a fluid global market for these products," said a European diplomat. In concrete terms, Western countries are prohibiting service providers (transport, insurance, etc.) from transporting these Russian products beyond the fixed price.

Stocks and new sources

While the mechanism has been tried and tested for two months for crude oil, the EU member states nevertheless took time to agree on Friday, February 3. The Baltic States and Poland were campaigning for an additional reduction in the cap for crude oil and refined products in order to further reduce Russian revenues, said a diplomat from northern Europe. But other states, in the EU and in the G7, did not want to destabilize the market.

One source said, "In mid-March, after a comprehensive analysis of the mechanism in place, a decision will be taken on whether to change the level of the price cap." This decision "will further destabilize the international energy markets," warned Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Friday, adding that Moscow was "taking steps to cover [its] interests."

With these measures, will the EU run out of diesel, kerosene or fuel oil? "No, it has largely anticipated this embargo and increased its stocks in recent months by accelerating purchases," said Ben McWilliams, who is in charge of energy at the Bruegel Institute, a think tank. The stockpiles are helping to preserve the immediate supply for motorists, and also for the entire transport, agricultural and industrial sectors, which are highly dependent on these products. "Things should be fine in the short term," said McWilliams.

Among the new sources of supply, the Middle East, already a long-established supplier, will be at the forefront for economic reasons and because supply routes are shorter, compared with India, for example. Refineries in the Gulf are already running at full capacity and new plants under construction are expected to provide additional capacity by the end of 2023.

"In order of preference, the EU is expected first turn to the Gulf countries, then the United States and India," said Carmine de Franco, head of research at Ossiam. In January alone, Europe imported large amounts of refined products from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Between them, they exported the same level as Russia alone to Europe.

Redrawn flow map

De Franco added that "for its part, China buys cheap crude oil from Russia to refine and then sell on to other Asian countries," which should "free up resources that Europe can rely on."

Just as has happened with oil over the past two months, the map of refined product flows will be completely redrawn. In the case of crude oil, India and China, as well as Saudi Arabia for its domestic market, have taken many Russian deliveries at a price below the market. Saudi Arabia has consequently increased its exports to Europe.

In the case of refined products, where long-distance transport is more complex because the vessels are smaller, traders have so far observed a redirection of Russian oil product flows mainly to North Africa and Turkey, which suggests that Moscow, constrained by its fleet of tankers, prefers shorter routes.

According to Viktor Katona, an analyst at Kpler, the countries around the Mediterranean (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey) are ideal places to carry out transshipments. These operations allow the transfer of cargo from one ship to another to make the journey. "Morocco, for example, buys Russian diesel that it mixes with local products to make them pass through European customs without hindrance," the expert explained.

In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Asia have seen much lower flows in recent months. In China and India, for example, diesel imports have remained lower (10,000 barrels per day on average). These countries have rebuilt their refining capacities and are now less tempted to import this type of product.

But Europe is not immune to a crisis. IFP New Energies (formerly the French Petroleum Institute) does not rule out "a more pessimistic scenario (...). If some of the Russian gas oil is not exported, due to constraints linked to either sanctions or transport costs, or even a Russian national decision to restrict them," this could increase prices everywhere.

---

In France, the Russian diesel embargo keeps pressure on pump prices

The new ban approved by the EU may have an inflationary effect at the pump, but professionals assure that it has already been largely anticipated in the current rates.

Le Monde by Adrien Pécout

Published on February 6, 2023

Will France still be able to meet its diesel needs in the coming months? And, above all, at what price? This is a major concern for motorists in the country, where, at 55% of the fleet, diesel engines still outnumber gasoline ones. The concern will grow on Sunday, February 5, the start date of the European Union (EU) embargo on refined oil products from Russia, two months after the embargo on crude oil came into effect.

In January, the government replaced a systematic fuel discount across the board with an allowance of €100 per year for people with the lowest incomes, but prices at the pump have already climbed significantly higher: €1.94 per liter of diesel on average in the week of January 27. The peak in this area remains in March 2022 (€2.14 per liter). The month of June would certainly have exceeded this number without the government's rebate of €0.18 per liter.

The most significant impact has already occurred, according to the oil industry's employers' organizations because, since its outbreak in February 2022, the war in Ukraine has made Russian deliveries uncertain. In 2021, this represented about 9% of crude imports in France and 30% of diesel imports. "The embargo on Russian diesel has more impact in France than the one on crude oil, but this impact has been anticipated in diesel prices for several months," said Jean-Nicolas Fiatte, director general of the Professional Oil Committee.

'Looking further afield for fuel'

On a European scale, "as of March 2022, diesel prices in Rotterdam [the benchmark index in the Netherlands] have risen more than the price of crude oil [for North Sea Brent]," observed Olivier Gantois, president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries. They have risen so much that the gross refining margin – the difference between the value of the refined product and the initial value of the crude – has increased from one to more than seven times: €101 per tonne in 2022, as compared with €14 in 2021, according to figures compiled by the UFIP.

But, according to Andrew Wilson, head of analysis for the French shipping broker BRS, prices could still rise for reasons of logistics. "Europe will have to look further afield for fuel, which means paying higher shipping costs, and that will depend a lot on the cost of replacement barrels," said Wilson. Instead of Russian ships crossing the Baltic, larger vessels could come from North America, the Middle East, India or even China.

"We are going to use our global refining system, particularly in Saudi Arabia, to supply our service station networks in Europe as a priority," said Patrick Pouyanné, head of the oil company TotalEnergies, in an interview with the Belgian dailies L'Echo and De Tijd on January 28. Gantois said that "the embargo should not affect the availability of diesel in France, as a system of communicating vessels with other areas than Europe will be at work."

There is also increasing structural pressure on diesel, and therefore on its price. Over the past decade, several refineries in Europe have closed – for example, those at Dunkirk (northern France), Reichstett (northeast) and Berre (south) – which has increased the use of contracts from further afield. This is a "profound strategic error," said Thierry Defresne of the General Workers' Confederation union (CGT) for TotalEnergies.

"In France, successive governments have allowed the destruction of refining," said the trade unionist. "Rather than securing imports, we were asking for the possibility of refining within France all the oil the country uses, in an effort for energy independence." In its January report on the oil market, the International Energy Agency wrote that in December 2022, Russia was still exporting a record 1.2 million barrels of diesel per day – 60% of this was destined for the EU.

---

Source: El País, The Cerro Dominador concentrated solar power plant in Chile’s Atacama Desert.JOHN MOORE

Chile, the land of mines, leads the way in solar energy

The Latin American country has far exceeded its goal to reach 20% of energy production from renewable sources by 2025

El País by NOOR MAHTANI

In the middle of the Atacama Desert, 10,600 mirrors face skyward. Each one measures 140 square meters and weighs about three tons. Their function is to follow the sun’s trajectory, reflecting and directing the radiation towards the receiver and converting it into energy. The Concentrated Solar Power plant occupies 1,000 hectares and is located in northern Chile’s Cerro Dominador. This area has the highest level of solar incidence in the world and is the site of Latin America’s first solar thermal plant. Most of the country’s clean energy is generated there and, because of the plant, Chile achieved one of its most ambitious environmental targets last year, four years ahead of schedule.

The country set itself the goal of producing 20% of its energy from non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) by 2025. This year, the percentage has already reached 31.1%, according to the Chilean Association of Renewable Energies and Storage (Acera). This comes primarily from photovoltaic energy, which represents 15% of the country’s renewable energy. Cerro Dominador’s proximity to Chile’s large mining areas has also made it easier for that industry to incorporate more solar energy. In 2019, mining’s use of renewable energies did not exceed 3.6%, but it rose to 10.5% in 2020. In 2021, solar energy consumption in the mining sector reached the milestone of 36.2%. That rate is projected to climb to 50% by the end of this fiscal year.

The turning point came in 2013. Over the last decade, clean technology prices have fallen by almost 90%, a trend that is set to continue. Javier Jorquera Copier, an analyst at the International Energy Agency, says that the boom in renewable energy sources is multifactorial and promising: “Government-led auction schemes, competitive bidding in the deregulated electricity market and, more recently, the country’s hydrogen strategy, are driving the solar PV boom in Chile,” he says.

Although Chile hasn’t implemented subsidies for large-scale solar generation, there are some government incentives for people to install solar panels at the residential level, such as the public solar roofs program and net billing, an initiative that allows Chileans to generate their own energy, consume it, and sell their surplus at a set price. Constanza Levicán, an electrical engineer and the founder of Suncast, a Chilean startup that uses artificial intelligence to assess NCRE, is somewhat more critical of the state’s failure to intervene. “If Chile had promoted this industry earlier, it could have positioned itself as an expert in the sector and exported its services to the world,” she says.

Chile has optimal conditions for clean energy production

Nevertheless, Chile has made one of the fastest green transitions in the world, according to Fernando Branger, an energy specialist coordinator at the Inter-American Development Bank. As he explains, the country has opted for a “powerful diversification of energy sources” as a result of greater awareness of global warming and international emission reduction targets. “On top of that, they have the resources. Just as their land is good for [producing] wine, it’s also good for generating solar energy,” he explains via a video call. “The mining industry worked to include it, and there are financial instruments that compensate for the fact that solar energy does not work at night.”

Chile’s conditions are optimal. The Atacama Desert’s average solar irradiation is approximately double the average of Spain’s, for example. Álvaro Lorca, a professor of engineering in the Department of Electrical Engineering at the Catholic University of Chile agrees about the importance of changing the narrative around emissions and climate change. “A real effort goes into making that transition and doing away with coal as well,” he explains. The government’s goal is to eliminate this energy source entirely by 2040 and “everything points to the fact that it could be replaced by solar. It is already competitive in the market today,” Lorca adds.

Switching a third of the country’s energy to clean sources in such a short timeframe makes the commitment to sustainability tangible. In fact, Chile’s new National Energy Policy is even more ambitious; it aims to reach a target of 80% by 2030, which is a “feasible” goal, according to experts. Thus, Chile is paving the way for a region that currently generates 61% of its power capacity is from renewables, according to Energy Global.

However, solar and wind energy pose a significant challenge: transmitting production from sunny and windy areas to the places where energy demand is greastest, something which does not coincide geographically in Chile. “The solar photovoltaic plants in the north have not been able to pump electricity into the system at maximum potential, because of the lack of transmission capacity. The slow expansion of that infrastructure has caused delays in projects in the past and could slow the pace of expansion in the near future,” says Jorquera.

The most viable solution for resolving that shortfall involves investing in batteries that store production at night to avoid spillage and waste. “That is the next step. Chile will require more precise regulations to correct some inefficiencies,” says Branger. Those must be the next steps to be taken if Chile is to continue to lead in the field of renewable energy, he notes.

News round-up, Friday, February 3, 2023

---

Editor's Reflections:

A Swedish Nightmare Its name is —Recep Tayyip Erdoğan—.

Any political decision that involves the gift of a Natural Gas Hub has significant weight.

Image: Germán & Co

Maybe this Swedish nightmare should have the same name as Gabriel García Marquez's book: "Chronicles of a death foretold.” Where the end of the story is known from the beginning in this tragic microcosm, in which Gabo explores the ancestral atavism of the virgin in Hispanic culture and weaves together concepts like public morality, family honour, and class consciousness while also elaborating a masterful twist on the indissoluble link between love and death, helped him win the Nobel Prize in Literature in 1982.

"Go on, girl: tell us who it was. She took just long enough to say the name. She searched for him in the darkness, found him at first sight among the many and many confusable names of this world and the other, and left him nailed to the wall with her accurate dart, like a butterfly whose sentence had always been written. -Santiago Nasar", he said.

There has been a professional and in-depth analysis of the controversy surrounding Turkey's veto of Sweden's application for NATO membership from all angles, including historical, political, and gender-related perspectives, because, at one point, the former Swedish foreign minister, Ms. Ann Linde, was blamed for being a woman, which supposedly made it challenging to negotiate with a state where men have held power for millennia.

This contentious topic was discussed in a Bloomberg piece published on November 8 last year:

“Swedish Gift to Turkey in NATO Talks Evokes Centuries of History, PM Kristersson gives Erdogan copy of 1739 alliance accord.”

The accord with the predecessor of the modern Turkish Republic is a symbol of the two nations’ commitment to each others’ security, the Swedish leader told Erdogan. It was signed roughly two decades after Sweden’s King Charles XII sought refuge at an Ottoman castle following a disastrous defeat at the Battle of Poltava against the Russians.

The ruler later became known as Demirbas, Turkish for fixed asset, for having his expenses borne by the Turks.

Erdogan’s Surprise In return, Turkey’s president said he had a “surprise” for his guest: an undated letter from a Swedish envoy in Istanbul, which expressed his king’s gratitude for financial help from the Ottomans and their mediation between Sweden and Russia.  Erdogan also gave Kristersson a decree from the same period that documented shipment of wheat to Sweden as a form of aid, citing it as a historic example of Turkey’s mediation role. “History repeating itself,” the Swedish premier said, according to the footage, in an apparent reference to Turkey’s role arbitrating in the war Russia started in Ukraine. “It would not, if lessons were to be drawn,” Erdogan answered.

“Very much agreed,” Kristersson replied.

Who is the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?

According to POLITICO EU, in his nomination POLITICO 28, for the year 2023, President Erdoğan calls the Wild Car. Why?

Whose side is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on? The answer isn’t always clear. Ostensibly, the Turkish president leads a NATO member and a European Union candidate country. In reality, his relationship with the West is often transactional at best and hostile at worst. He has accused Germany of “Nazi practices” and routinely threatens to “open the doors” for migrants to move on to Europe, despite the bloc paying Turkey billions of euros to keep them there.

His relationship with Moscow is a case in point. Russia and Turkey once came to blows in Syria, but since the invasion of Ukraine, Erdoğan, 68, has largely portrayed himself as neutral, even accusing the West of “provocation” of Russia. (He also provoked the Kremlin himself by intimating that Crimea is not actually Ukrainian or Russian, but Turkish.) At the same time, Turkey played a key role in ensuring Ukraine’s ability to export grain via the Black Sea, and Erdoğan wants to play moderator in the case of a negotiated settlement between Moscow and Kyiv.

There’s also the status of Cyprus — which Turkey invaded and partly occupied in the 1970s — that Erdoğan has shown little willingness to resolve. He has become increasingly combative with Greece, a fellow NATO member, hinting he might invade if Athens continues a military buildup on islands close to Turkey’s coastline. While that remains an unlikely prospect, tensions in the eastern Mediterranean are heating up as the EU explores alternative gas supplies and the disputed gas-rich waters around Cyprus beckon.

Image: The Moscow Time by Vyacheslav Prokofiev / TASS

On 19 October last year, the following article from The Moscow Times was reproduced in the blog, indicating that Sweden would be highly complicated to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after hearing this news. Moreover, make clear the Kremlin's skill in its well-known high-flying lobbying expertise. Another skillful move by President Vladimir Putin

Erdoğan Announces Deal Whit Moscow to Create Gas Hub in Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Wednesday that he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to create a "gas hub" in Turkey, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.

During an address to the Turkish parliament, Erdogan cited Putin as saying Europe could obtain its gas supply from the hub in Turkey while Russia's supplies to Europe were disrupted by Ukraine-related sanctions and leaks at key pipelines.

Last week, the two leaders discussed the creation of the gas hub at a face-to-face meeting in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"Turkey has turned out to be the most reliable route for deliveries today, even to Europe,” Putin said last week.

Gas prices have skyrocketed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, and the EU has struggled to find alternative energy supplies after Russia decided to curtail its deliveries to Europe in response to Western sanctions.

On 19 October last year, the following article from The Moscow Times was reproduced in the blog, indicating that Sweden would be highly complicated to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after hearing this news. Moreover, make clear the Kremlin's skill in its well-known high-flying lobbying expertise. Another skillful move by President Vladimir  

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that he had agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to create a "gas hub" in Turkey, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.

During an address to the Turkish parliament, Erdogan cited Putin as saying Europe could obtain its gas supply from the hub in Turkey while Russia's supplies to Europe were disrupted by Ukraine-related sanctions and leaks at key pipelines.

Last week, the two leaders discussed the creation of the gas hub at a face-to-face meeting in the Kazakh capital Astana.

"Turkey has turned out to be the most reliable route for deliveries today, even to Europe,” Putin said last week.

Gas prices have skyrocketed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began, and the EU has struggled to find alternative energy supplies after Russia decided to curtail its deliveries to Europe in response to Western sanctions.

AFP contributed reporting.

Recap

It is because of the importance of common sense in the analysis, those two words rooted in everyday language that we used to use every day to judge a situation that seemed anomalous, irrational, deceitful because it was opposed to good finding and good sense, that is because it defied common sense. They seem to have been withdrawing from the collective imagination. Because common sense, to be such, must be precise, and the idea has been incubating that nothing can be qualified as true, that everything is open to opinion. That error does not exist as a category of analysis.

Any political decision that involves the gift of a Natural Gas Hub has significant weight.

---

Quote of the day…

EU talks on fresh Russian oil price caps go to the wire

Ambassadors to meet again on Friday as Sunday deadline looms.

POLITICO EU bY CHARLIE COOPER

February 1, 2023

Pentagon says it is monitoring Chinese spy balloon spotted flying over US

Officials say balloon has been watched for a few days but has decided not to shoot it down for safety reasons

The Guardian by Julian Borger in Washington

Fri 3 Feb 2023

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Barack Obama, Neural Nets, Self-Driving Cars & The Future of the World…

www.wired.com/2016/10/president-obama-mit-joi-ito-interview/

IT’S HARD TO think of a single technology that will shape our world more in the next 50 years than artificial intelligence. As machine learning enables our computers to teach themselves, a wealth of breakthroughs emerge, ranging from medical diagnostics to cars that drive themselves. A whole lot of worry emerges as well. Who controls this technology? Will it take over our jobs? Is it dangerous? President Obama was eager to address these concerns. The person he wanted to talk to most about them? Entrepreneur and MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito. So I sat down with them in the White House to sort through the hope, the hype, and the fear around AI. That and maybe just one quick question about Star Trek. —SCOTT DADICH

---

Source by POLITICO EU. An EU-wide ban on Russian oil products — those from crude oil, such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel — comes into force this Sunday, February 5, presenting a hard deadline for agreement

EU talks on fresh Russian oil price caps go to the wire

Ambassadors to meet again on Friday as Sunday deadline looms.

POLITICO EU bY CHARLIE COOPER

February 1, 2023

EU countries failed to strike a deal on a price cap for Russian oil products, with a deadline for settling the price now just days away.

Talks between EU ambassadors that were due to resume on Thursday have now been postponed until Friday while diplomats seek a compromise, six EU diplomats said. The European Commission last week proposed that — as part of a G7 coalition — the EU should enforce a price cap of $100 per barrel on products like diesel which trade above the price of crude oil and $45 for those that trade at a discount to crude.

But Poland and the three Baltic countries have pushed for lower caps and for the existing G7 price cap on Russian crude oil to be lowered from the current $60 per barrel. Russia's Urals export blend crude oil has been trading at between $46 and $52 per barrel in January. The more hawkish EU countries want to drive down the crude cap to between $40 and $50 to curb the fossil fuel revenues that fund Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. Diesel currently trades at around $120 to $130 per barrel.

An EU-wide ban on Russian oil products — those from crude oil, such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel — comes into force this Sunday, February 5, presenting a hard deadline for agreement.

The G7 coalition price cap is due to come into force at the same time so that Western shipping firms and insurance companies can continue facilitating Russian oil exports sold at or below the cap level. The EU ban and the G7 caps are intended to work in parallel to trim Russia’s income while avoiding a major shock to global energy markets.

No progress was achieved at a meeting of EU ambassadors on Wednesday, which also discussed a new EU sanctions package on Russia’s ally Belarus. Three EU diplomats said that hawkish countries, spearheaded by Lithuania, are also pushing back against exemptions within the Belarus sanctions package for fertilizer, inserted to reflect other countries’ concerns about global food security.

The European Commission will now continue deliberations behind closed doors, with a view to finally striking a deal at the next meeting of ambassadors on Friday. Similar last-minute disagreements took place late last year over the price cap on Russian crude oil, with an original proposal of $65 to $70 per barrel being cut to $60 following opposition from Poland and Baltic countries.

“We trust that an agreement will be reached before February 5,” one EU diplomat said. A second diplomat said, meanwhile, that the bigger EU countries were becoming “fed up with the moral blackmail” of the hawkish coalition.

The EU’s ban on Russian diesel had led to fears of a supply crunch, but significant increases in imports in recent weeks have eased those concerns for now.

Some commentators have criticized the proposed cap levels for oil products.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said the caps were too high to have a significant impact.

“This really represents window dressing by EU countries,” Myllyvirta said. “The aim must be to push Russia's selling prices far below where the market would set them, close to production costs, depriving Russia of excess profits. Instead, the mentality for too many countries is to set the cap levels so high as to only act as circuit breaker against price spikes.”

---

Image: The Guardian

Pentagon says it is monitoring Chinese spy balloon spotted flying over US

Officials say balloon has been watched for a few days but has decided not to shoot it down for safety reasons

The Guardian by Julian Borger in Washington

Fri 3 Feb 2023 01.27 GMT

The Pentagon has said it is tracking a Chinese spy balloon flying over the United States but decided against shooting it down for safety reasons.

Defence officials said the balloon has been watched for a couple days since it entered US airspace, flying at high altitude. It has been monitored by several methods including manned aircraft, and has most recently been tracked crossing over Montana, where the US has some of its silo-based nuclear missiles. As a precaution, flights out of Billings Logan airport were suspended on Wednesday.

“The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

“Instances of this kind of balloon activity have been observed previously over the past several years. Once the balloon was detected, the US government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information.”

US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions

The incident comes just ahead of a visit to China by Antony Blinken, expected this weekend, when it is believed the US secretary of state will meet Xi Jinping. The trip has not been formally announced, but both Beijing and Washington have been talking about his imminent arrival.

A senior US defence official said the US has “engaged” Chinese officials through multiple channels and communicated the seriousness of the matter.

Pentagon officials said there was “high confidence” that it was Chinese, and that Joe Biden was briefed on the situation. The president asked for military options, but it was decided that there was too great a danger of debris harming people on the ground were it to be shot down.

Another factor in the decision was that, although it was flying over sensitive nuclear sites in Montana, it did not appear to be gathering any intelligence that could not be collected from satellites, so it was judged to be of little benefit to the Chinese.

Montana is home to one of the nation’s three nuclear missile silo fields at Malmstrom Air Force Base. All air traffic was halted at Montana’s Billings Logan international airport from 1.30pm to 330pm on Wednesday, as the military readied fighter jets and provided options to the White House.

Congressional leaders were briefed on the matter Thursday afternoon. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy later tweeted: “China’s brazen disregard for US sovereignty is a destabilising action that must be addressed.”

Montana Governor Greg Gianforte said he was briefed on Wednesday about the situation after the state’s National Guard was notified of an ongoing military operation taking place in its airspace, according to a statement from the governor and spokesperson Brooke Stroyke.

The object first flew over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands and through Canada before appearing over the city of Billings, Montana, on Wednesday, officials said.

Military experts say that use of high-altitude balloons is likely to increase over the coming years. They are much cheaper than spy satellites, are hard to spot by radar and difficult to shoot down, sometimes lingering for days after they have been punctured. They can “steer” by changing altitudes, using computers to calculate how to use winds going in different directions at different layers of the atmosphere. As well as surveillance, they could also carry bombs, in times of conflict.

In 2019, the US military used up to 25 experimental solar-powered high-altitude balloons to conduct wide-area surveillance tests across six midwestern states. The balloons were equipped with hi-tech radars designed to simultaneously track many individual vehicles day or night, through any kind of weather, and were intended to be used to monitor drug trafficking and potential homeland security threats.

Tensions with China are particularly high on numerous issues, ranging from Taiwan and the South China Sea to human rights in China’s western Xinjiang region and the clampdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong. Not least on the list of irritants are China’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its refusal to rein in North Korea’s expanding ballistic missile program and ongoing disputes over trade and technology.

Some Montana residents reported seeing an unusual object in the sky during the airport shutdown, but it’s not clear that what they were seeing was the balloon.

From an office window in Billings, Chase Doak said he saw a “big white circle in the sky” that he said was too small to be the moon.

He took some photos, then ran home to get a camera with a stronger lens and took more photos and video. He could see it for about 45 minutes and it appeared stationary, but Doak said the video suggested it was slowly moving.

“I thought maybe it was a legitimate UFO,” he said. “So I wanted to make sure I documented it and took as many photos as I could.”

---

News round-up, Wednesday, February 1, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

October 1962: missiles, lies and diplomacy

The Cuban missile crisis cover-up

How JFK and Robert Kennedy hid confidential letter to the US president from Nikita Khrushchev confirming the quid pro quo that saved the world from nuclear war.

Le Monde Diplomatique by Peter Kornbluh

Oil Giants, After Surge in Profits, Are Wary About Spending

Economic and military uncertainty clouds the outlook for Exxon, Chevron and other energy companies, whose bonanza from high prices is already fading.

NYT by Clifford Krauss

Inside a Nuclear War Bunker Built to Save Canada’s Leaders

Amid renewed tensions with Russia, tourists are flocking to a decommissioned nuclear fallout shelter that Canada built to preserve its government during a nuclear war.

NYT by Ian Austen

Wind and solar generated more electricity than gas or coal in the EU in 2022

A report by the think tank Ember found that the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis have accelerated the transition and have not caused a 'return to coal.'

Le Monde by Perrine Mouterde

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Illustration by Fran Pulido created with Midjourney

El País

Barack Obama, Neural Nets, Self-Driving Cars & The Future of the World…

IT’S HARD TO think of a single technology that will shape our world more in the next 50 years than artificial intelligence. As machine learning enables our computers to teach themselves, a wealth of breakthroughs emerge, ranging from medical diagnostics to cars that drive themselves. A whole lot of worry emerges as well. Who controls this technology? Will it take over our jobs? Is it dangerous? President Obama was eager to address these concerns. The person he wanted to talk to most about them? Entrepreneur and MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito. So I sat down with them in the White House to sort through the hope, the hype, and the fear around AI. That and maybe just one quick question about Star Trek. —SCOTT DADICH

www.wired.com/2016/10/president-obama-mit-joi-ito-interview/

Illustration by Fran Pulido created with Midjourney

---

President John F Kennedy talks to Soviet ambassador Anatoly F Dobrynin and foreign minister Andrei Gromyko, White House, October 1962

Image: by Le Monde Diplomatique-Universal History Archive · UIG · Getty

October 1962: missiles, lies and diplomacy

The Cuban missile crisis cover-up

How JFK and Robert Kennedy hid confidential letter to the US president from Nikita Khrushchev confirming the quid pro quo that saved the world from nuclear war.

Le Monde Diplomatique by Peter Kornbluh

The Cuban missile crisis cover-up

President John F Kennedy talks to Soviet ambassador Anatoly F Dobrynin and foreign minister Andrei Gromyko, White House, October 1962

On 28 October 1962 – that dramatic day just over 60 years ago when Nikita Khrushchev publicly ordered the removal of nuclear ballistic missiles his forces had just installed on the island of Cuba – the Soviet premier sent a private letter to President John F Kennedy regarding the resolution of the most dangerous superpower confrontation in modern history. Officially, the USSR withdrew the missiles in return for a vague US non-invasion-of-Cuba guarantee. Secretly, however, the crisis was resolved when President Kennedy dispatched his brother Robert to meet with Soviet ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin on the evening of 27 October and agree to a top-secret deal: US missiles in Turkey for Soviet missiles in Cuba.

‘I feel I must state to you that I do understand the delicacy involved for you in an open consideration of the issue of eliminating the US missile bases in Turkey,’ Khrushchev wrote to Kennedy in his private note (1), seeking to confirm the arrangement in writing. ‘I take into account the complexity of this issue and I believe you are right about not wishing to publicly discuss it.’

Dobrynin gave the confidential letter to Attorney General Robert Kennedy on 29 October. But instead of passing it on to the president, the next day Kennedy returned the letter to the Soviet ambassador. The United States would ‘live up to our promise, even if it is given in this oral form,’ Kennedy told him, but there would be no written record. ‘I myself, for example, do not want to risk getting involved in the transmission of this sort of letter, since who knows where and when such letters can surface or be somehow published,’ Dobrynin’s detailed report to the Kremlin quoted Kennedy as saying. ‘The appearance of such a document could cause irreparable harm to my political career in the future. This is why we request that you take this letter back.’

An epic cover-up

So began the epic cover-up of how the crisis actually ended and nuclear war was averted. President Kennedy was determined to keep the missile swap secret – to safeguard US leadership of the NATO alliance of which Turkey was a member, as well as to protect his political reputation, which, like his brother’s, would suffer if it became known that he had actually negotiated with the USSR in order save the world from self-destruction. To hide the quid pro quo, the president took a number of active measures: among them lying to his White House predecessors, misleading the media, and orchestrating a political hatchet job on his own UN ambassador, Adlai Stevenson – the first, and virtually the only, advisor to urge Kennedy to consider a missile exchange to resolve the crisis diplomatically, without the use of force. After JFK’s assassination, a handful of his former White House aides sustained the cover-up. They would maintain a wall of silence that endured for more than 25 years, obfuscating the true history, and real lessons, of the cold war crisis that brought the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon.

Within hours of Khrushchev’s radio broadcast on the morning of 28 October, announcing his order to dismantle and repatriate the nuclear missiles, President Kennedy began to spread a false narrative of how the crisis had concluded. His secret White House taping system captured Kennedy’s phone calls to his three surviving predecessors – Dwight Eisenhower, Harry Truman, and Herbert Hoover – about how he had dealt with it. He misled Eisenhower, telling him that ‘we couldn’t get into that [Turkey] deal,’ as missile crisis historian Sheldon Stern reported in his book Averting ‘the Final Failure’ (2).

‘We rejected that,’ he lied to Truman, about Khrushchev’s public demand on the Jupiter missiles in Turkey, saying that ‘they came back with and accepted the earlier proposal’ on the non-invasion pledge (3). To Hoover, Kennedy falsely reported that the Soviets had gone back ‘to their more reasonable position’ on non-invasion.

The next day, the president conferred with his brother about Khrushchev’s unexpected letter on the missile swap and decided that there should be no paper trail about the secret agreement. ‘President Kennedy and I did not feel correspondence on our conversations was very helpful at this time,’ was the message Robert Kennedy sent to Dobrynin, according to Kennedy’s top-secret account of their meeting. ‘He understood our conversation, and in my judgement nothing more was necessary.’

Fostering media stories

The president then set about fostering stories in the media that would distance him from any speculation about a quid pro quo. He gave a green light to his closest friend, Charles Bartlett, whom he had used as a secret emissary to Soviet intelligence officials during the missile crisis, to write the inside story of decision-making that ended the conflict; Bartlett teamed up with another Kennedy confidant, Stewart Alsop, to co-author the controversial article ‘In Time of Crisis’ for the Saturday Evening Post, which began to circulate around Washington in early December 1962 (4).

The Saturday Evening Post story established the official narrative of how the missile crisis was resolved. Indeed, the opening quote of the article, ‘We’re eyeball to eyeball, and I think the other fellow just blinked’ – attributed to Secretary of State Dean Rusk during the crisis – instantly became the iconic summation of how the world was spared the fate of atomic Armageddon. Threatening to invade Cuba, Kennedy had resolutely won the game of nuclear chicken with the Soviets; Nikita Khrushchev had ‘blinked’, withdrawn the missiles and given America a major cold war victory. ‘Rusk’s words,’ the authors of the article intoned, ‘epitomise a great moment in American history.’

But the article also contained a savage political smear on UN ambassador Adlai Stevenson, casting him as ‘soft’ on the Soviets for favouring political negotiations over military action. Worse, he was an appeaser. Alsop and Bartlett quoted an ‘unadmiring official’ as stating that ‘Adlai wanted a Munich. He wanted to trade US bases for Cuban bases.’ Before it was published, the editors of the Saturday Evening Post began distributing the article to the New York and Washington media with a press release titled ‘The controversial and hitherto unrevealed role played by UN ambassador Adlai Stevenson during the height of the Cuba crisis’. The attack on Stevenson immediately set off a political firestorm, as President Kennedy must have known it would.

As Kennedy White House aide Arthur Schlesinger Jr recounted in his widely read memoir A Thousand Days, on 1 December the president summoned him to the Oval Office and told him that the forthcoming article ‘accused Stevenson of advocating a Caribbean Munich’. Because of Kennedy’s close friendship with Bartlett, the president said, ‘everyone will suppose that it came out of the White House.’ He told Schlesinger to ‘tell Adlai that I never talked to Charlie or any other reporter about the Cuban crisis, and that this piece does not represent my views.’

In truth, Kennedy had talked to Bartlett as the story was being written; it did represent his views, or at least his political purposes, since he had surreptitiously edited the article and orchestrated the hatchet job on Stevenson as a way to distance the White House from how the missile crisis really ended. ‘In fact, the “nonadmiring official” was Kennedy himself,’ historian Gregg Herken revealed in his book The Georgetown Set: Friends and Rivals in Cold War Washington (Knopf, 2014).

‘The president had pencilled in the “Munich” line when he annotated a typescript of the draft article,’ Herken wrote, drawing on interviews with members of Stewart Alsop’s family and correspondence between Alsop and the executive editor of the Saturday Evening Post, Clay Blair Jr, letters published in full for the first time – 60 years after the missile crisis – by my organisation, the National Security Archive (5). President Kennedy’s role ‘must remain Top Secret, Eyes Only, Burn After Reading, and so on,’ Alsop wrote to Blair four months after Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas, when his editor urged him to write a ‘tell-all’ about the president’s participation in the drafting of the article. The manuscript page with the president’s handwritten remarks, Alsop said, had been returned to Kennedy in 1962 and destroyed. ‘I sent the ms to Himself as a Christmas present, through Charlie [Bartlett]. It has long since been reduced to ashes,’ Alsop wrote. ‘It would have made an interesting footnote to history, at that.’

In the years following Kennedy’s assassination, his top advisors, though privy to the secret deal, sustained the sacred myth of the Cuban missile crisis. Early memoirs from former officials such as Theodore Sorensen, among others, withheld all references to the missile swap. Robert Kennedy’s diary of the crisis did contain a detailed account of his climactic 27 October 1962, meeting with Dobrynin about the quid pro quo. But when the diaries were posthumously published in 1969 as the best-selling book Thirteen Days, those passages were omitted. Twenty years later, at a Moscow conference on the missile crisis, Sorensen confessed that he had quietly cut the references to the missile trade (6). ‘I was the editor of Robert Kennedy’s book,’ he admitted. ‘And his diary was very explicit that [Turkey] was part of the deal; but at that time, it was still a secret even on the American side … So I took it upon myself to edit that out of his diaries.’

‘There was no leak,’ former national security advisor McGeorge Bundy wrote in his book Danger and Survival: Choices About the Bomb in the First Fifty Years, finally revealing the cover-up in 1988 (7). ‘As far as I know, none … of us told anyone else what had happened. We denied in every forum that there was any deal.’

Indeed, only in the late 1980s and early 1990s did the full history of the diplomacy, negotiation, and compromise that resolved the missile crisis finally emerge. In 1987 the John F Kennedy Presidential Library began to release declassified transcripts of the secret tapes that recorded Kennedy’s meetings with his advisors during the conflict; they captured the president weighing the merits of a missile trade that might avert a nuclear conflagration. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian foreign ministry archives began to share key documentation, including Dobrynin’s cables to Moscow reporting on his meetings with Robert Kennedy. A series of international conferences, including 30th and 40th anniversary meetings in Havana bringing together surviving Kennedy White House officials, former Soviet military commanders and Fidel Castro, significantly advanced the historical record on how the dangerous nuclear confrontation began – and how it really ended.

That historical record remains immediately relevant today, as Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons in its war of aggression against Ukraine have created another ‘time of crisis’. The degree to which the lessons of the past are applicable to the present remains unknown. But 60 years ago, in his 28 October 1962 letter to President Kennedy (8), Nikita Khrushchev issued a prescient warning for coexistence in a world of nuclear weapons: ‘Mr President, the crisis that we have gone through may repeat again. This means that we need to address the issues which contain too much explosive material. But we cannot delay the solution to these issues, for continuation of this situation is fraught with many uncertainties and dangers.’

Peter Kornbluh

Peter Kornbluh is co-author, with William M LeoGrande, of Back Channel to Cuba: the Hidden History of Negotiations Between Washington and Havana (University of North Carolina Press, 2014) and author of The Pinochet File: a Declassified Dossier on Atrocity and Accountability (The New Press, 2013). This article was first published in The Nation. To subscribe to The Nation go to this link.

---

Oil Giants, After Surge in Profits, Are Wary About Spending

Economic and military uncertainty clouds the outlook for Exxon, Chevron and other energy companies, whose bonanza from high prices is already fading.

NYT by Clifford Krauss

Feb. 1, 2023

Exxon Mobil made $56 billion in profit last year, its largest annual haul ever. Chevron earned $36 billion, also a company record. But after a bountiful 2022, the outlook for those companies and other big oil and gas producers is cloudy.

They benefited for much of last year from higher prices for nearly all fuels as the continued recovery from the pandemic slowdown increased demand and the Russian invasion of Ukraine strained supplies. The landscape already looks different.

Exxon’s fourth-quarter profit of $12.75 billion, while strong, was down sharply from the $19.7 billion it earned in the third quarter. Oil prices have settled to a level more than a third lower than their peak shortly after the Ukraine war began last February, and natural gas prices have crashed by 70 percent from their highs in August, mostly because of an unseasonably warm winter in much of Europe and the United States.

“We don’t know what’s ahead in 2023,” Mike Wirth, Chevron’s chief executive, told analysts last week, adding that the uncertainty called for “operational discipline.”

The U.S. Energy Department has projected that prices for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, will average $83 a barrel this year — historically high, but 18 percent below 2022 levels. Gasoline-refining margins will slide by nearly 30 percent this year, the department forecasts, leading to a national average price for regular gasoline of $3.30 a gallon, more than a dollar below prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The department also expects natural gas prices to average 25 percent below last year’s.

While lower prices are a comfort for consumers, they take a toll on companies’ bottom lines.

Oil and gas companies expect a profitable 2023, but revenues and profits should drop below those in 2022. And even while celebrating their profits, executives caution that the oil business is subject to abrupt swings in supply and demand.

So the companies have promised investors not to repeat the past mistake of drilling so much that prices crash. They have been hesitant to move aggressively to expand production — as President Biden urged them to do when supplies were pinched — or take meaningful steps to build profitability around cleaner fuels. That restraint could mean tighter markets and higher prices unless there is a serious recession.

Mike Wirth, Chevron’s chief executive, told analysts last week that the company would remain focused on “operational discipline.”Credit...Brendan Mcdermid/Reuters

Instead, executives said they were committed to returning surplus cash to shareholders by increasing dividends and buying back shares. Chevron announced a $75 billion buyback program last week. Exxon announced its own $50 billion repurchase plan in December.

While critics often accuse the oil industry of profiteering when prices are high, executives say their companies are prone to cycles. Their share prices have rocketed over the last year after a decade of underperforming almost every other industry. Only two years ago, Exxon reported an annual loss as demand collapsed because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The variables that will determine oil companies’ profitability this year are largely out of their control — in both supply and demand. The war in Ukraine could expand or not; a recession in the United States and Europe could be deep or averted entirely. Prices for fuels, and inflation generally, will largely depend on how events play out.

Despite the war, Europe’s economy in recent months has been stronger than expected, in large part because the mild winter has kept gas demand and prices in check.

The International Energy Agency has projected that oil demand this year will grow modestly, by nearly two million barrels a day, reaching 101.7 million barrels a day. That may support oil company profits.

As pandemic restrictions have eased, an increase in air travel has added to the demand on refineries for jet fuel. The ability of oil companies to provide fuel at reasonable prices could be stretched, especially since they have been cautious about increasing production.

And with lockdowns lifted in China, its economy should grow faster, and demand for oil and gas should increase, if the country can overcome a new virus surge. But the picture remains unfocused. Chinese oil imports remain low for the moment, and Chinese refineries are gearing up for a recovery by producing more fuels for domestic consumption and export.

Another wild card is Russia.

With Russia’s war in Ukraine, Russian oil and gas supplies might be constrained by lower production because of Western sanctions and a lack of foreign investment. Before the war, Russia produced one out of every 10 barrels of oil consumed worldwide. Its exports have declined, although more slowly than many analysts expected at the outset of the war.

Overall, many in the industry are betting that the balance will tip toward high demand, not a glut.

“Against tight supply, demand for oil and gas is strong, and we believe it will remain so,” Jeff Miller, chief executive of Halliburton, one of the largest oil-field service companies, told analysts last week. He said the only way to address the supply side of the equation would be “multiple years of increased investment.”

Even with last year’s bottom-line bonanza for the oil companies, executives have been wary of aggressively pursuing new investments that would yield production gains. But there are indications that they may be recalibrating that risk aversion.

“We are underinvesting as an industry,” Darren Woods, Exxon’s chief executive, told analysts Tuesday, noting that many oil fields were depleting. “We see the potential for continued tight markets.”

Exxon reported in December that it would spend $23 billion to $25 billion on exploration and production this year, which experts say could drive an increase of more than 10 percent in its production of oil and gas. That is a partial reversal from declines in activity during the pandemic.

Mr. Woods said Tuesday that Exxon’s capital spending relative to competitors’ would be an advantage as the company pushed forward with developing fields in the Permian Basin straddling Texas and New Mexico, and offshore Guyana and Brazil.

He was particularly upbeat about Exxon’s refining-business profits.

“With economies picking up, and China coming out of its Covid lockdown and economic growth there,” he said, “we’ll continue to see that tightness and high refining margins.”

Chevron plans to spend roughly $17 billion this year on exploration and production, over 25 percent more than it did last year but still less than the company had projected it would spend in 2020 before the pandemic slashed demand for energy during most of 2020 and 2021.

American oil companies have increasingly focused their investments in the Western Hemisphere. Last year, Chevron broke its record for oil and gas production in the United States even as its global output declined by more than 3 percent in 2022 from the year before. Exxon reported that it increased its combined production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, its principal growth drivers, by over 30 percent.

But the major oil companies, particularly Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips, may be rethinking that strategy, and cautiously moving back to the Middle East, after decades in which they looked elsewhere to avoid the turbulence of political strife and expropriations.

Exxon recently announced that it had acquired two deepwater blocks for gas exploration off Egypt. That gives the company a large unbroken stretch of sea between Egypt and Cyprus to explore for gas that could eventually help Europe overcome the loss of Russian supplies.

Chevron, which operates two gas fields off Israel, recently announced a large discovery off Egypt. In his conference call with analysts, Mr. Wirth said Chevron was working on development plans in Israeli waters and elsewhere in the East Mediterranean.

“We’ve got seismic and we’re developing our exploration plans,” he said. “You’ll hear more about that as we go forward. So, it’s a high priority.”

Clifford Krauss is a national business correspondent based in Houston, covering energy. He has spent much of his career covering foreign affairs and was a winner of the Overseas Press Club Award for international environmental reporting in 2021.

---

Image: The 387-foot long blast tunnel, which was designed to absorb energy from a bomb dropped on downtown Ottawa.Credit...Ian Austen/The New York Times

Inside a Nuclear War Bunker Built to Save Canada’s Leaders

Amid renewed tensions with Russia, tourists are flocking to a decommissioned nuclear fallout shelter that Canada built to preserve its government during a nuclear war.

NYT by Ian Austen

Jan. 25, 2023

OTTAWA — Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Christine McGuire’s museum began receiving inquiries unlike anything she’d previously encountered during her career.

“We had people asking us if we still functioned as a fallout shelter,” said Ms. McGuire, the executive director of Diefenbunker: Canada’s Cold War Museum. “That fear is still very real for people. It seems to have come back into the public psyche.”

The Diefenbunker still has most of the form and features of the nuclear fallout shelter it once was for Canadian government and military V.I.P.s. But the underground complex, decommissioned in 1994, has shifted from being a functioning military asset to being a potent symbol of a return to an age when the world’s destruction again seems a real possibility with a nuclear-armed Russia raising the specter of using the weapons.

The Diefenbunker history is not just of global tension but also of Canada’s parsimonious approach to civil defense, optimistic thinking about the apocalypse and Canadians’ antipathy toward anything they perceive as a special deal for their political leaders. Now, the privately run museum is one of the few places in the world where visitors can tour a former Cold War bunker built to house a government under nuclear attack.

These factors have made the four-story-deep, 100,000-square-foot warren of about 350 rooms into an unexpectedly popular tourist attraction despite its off-the-beaten-path location, in the village of Carp within the city limits of Ottawa, Canada’s capital.

Robert Bothwell, a professor of history at the University of Toronto, was on the board of an Ontario cultural organization during the 1990s when a group of volunteers proposed turning the bunker into a museum. At that time, he said, several other volunteer-based museums had failed to attract visitors even with ample funding.

“So I thought: ‘Diefenbunker? Give me a break,’” he said. “But I was totally wrong.”

Since its construction began in 1959, the bunker has carried a variety of official names: Emergency Army Signals Establishment, Central Emergency Government Headquarters and Canadian Forces Station Carp. But it came to be known as the Diefenbunker after John Diefenbaker, the prime minister who commissioned it, more as a form of mockery than in his honor.

For almost two years, during its construction, the bunker and 10 other much smaller bunkers across the country were disguised as military communications centers, which, in fact, was part of their role.

But The Toronto Telegram newspaper exposed the Diefenbunker’s true nature in 1961 with a detailed aerial photograph of its construction site. The photograph showed that dozens of toilets were to be installed, a sign that the complex would be more than a small radio base. Above the photograph, the headline read: “78 BATHROOMS — and the Army still won’t admit that … THIS IS THE DIEFENBUNKER.”

Unlike the United States, Canada did not establish an extensive network of stocked fallout shelters to protect civilians, said Andrew Burtch, a historian at the Canadian War Museum and the author of a book about the country’s limited civil defense system.

Part of it was simply cost, he said. But he said that the military also assumed that the Soviets had reserved their then-limited number of warheads for the United States and would not “waste” them on Canadian targets. In that scenario, planners assumed that radiation from Soviet bombers shot down over Canada would be the main threat. That led, Dr. Burtch said, to a civil defense system in which, “for the most part, the public was on its own.”

Mr. Diefenbaker acknowledged the bunker’s purpose after the aerial photograph appeared and vowed that he would never visit it and would stay home with his wife if the bombers and missiles came. But outrage over the exclusive bunker — reserved for 565 people, including the prime minister and his 12 most senior cabinet ministers — persisted. Compounding the outcry, the government refused to disclose the cost of the bunker, estimated at 22 million Canadian dollars in 1958 money, or about 220 million today.

From the outside, the Diefenbunker looks like a grassy hillside with a few vents poking up from behind the ground, along with a handful of antennas, one quite tall. The entrance, added during the 1980s, is via a metal building with a roll-up garage door that opens to the blast tunnel, an area designed to absorb energy from a bomb dropped on downtown Ottawa. Stretching for 387 feet, the blast tunnel connects to a set of doors, weighing one and four tons each, and then next is a decontamination area that opens to the rest of the bunker.

Much of the interior of the utilitarian and brightly lit space is a restoration of the original, which was stripped after the complex was decommissioned and replaced with similar or identical items from smaller bunkers or military bases.

The prime minister’s office and suite is spartan, its only touch of luxury being a turquoise-colored washroom sink.

The war cabinet room has an overhead projector and four television sets. A military briefing room immediately next door has a projector that tracked planes.

The bunker is surrounded by thick layers of gravel on all sides to help mitigate the shock of any nearby nuclear explosions. Its plumbing fixtures are mounted on thick slabs of rubber and connected with hoses rather than pipes for the same reason.

The most secure and best protected area of the bunker was a vault behind a door so immense it requires a second, smaller door to be opened first to equalize the air pressure. It was intended as a place for Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada, to place gold should an attack appear imminent. There’s no record that the bank ever delivered gold there, a Bank of Canada spokesman said, and the vault became a gym in the 1970s.

A small armory was raided in 1984 by a corporal stationed in the bunker. He stole a large number of weapons, including two submachine guns, and 400 rounds of ammunition before driving to Quebec City where he shot and killed three people and injured 13 others at the province’s legislative assembly.

The complex was designed to store enough food and generator fuel to support occupants for 30 days after a nuclear attack, under the assumption that by then radiation levels above ground would be low enough for everyone to emerge.

But the need never arose, and the bunker remained scorned. Ultimately, the only prime minister to tour it was Pierre Elliott Trudeau, the father of Justin Trudeau, the current prime minister, who flew in on a military helicopter in 1976. After the trip, his government cut its budget.

Visitors stream here now from across Canada and abroad to experience for themselves this window into the Cold War past — and perhaps for a sense of the security that many crave today.

It’s also a rare opportunity to step inside a bunker built to withstand a nuclear Armageddon.

While bunkers from various wars are dotted around the world and open to visitors, major Cold War ones are much less common. A decommissioned bunker under the Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia — intended to hold all of the members of Congress — offers tours, but bans phones and cameras.

Gilles Courtemanche, a volunteer tour guide at the Diefenbunker, was a soldier stationed there in 1964, when he was 20. He worked there for two years as a signalman, setting up and maintaining communications and computer infrastructure. He was one of the 540 people, civilians and military members, who operated the bunker on three shifts before it was decommissioned.

Things have come full circle for him and for Canada. The Cold War of his youth has mutated to new kinds of threats, he said.

“It’s an important thing that we have here,” Mr. Courtemanche said, referring to the museum’s ability to remind visitors of threats past and present. “Now, China is starting to flex their muscles, and the Russians? Well, I don’t understand what they are doing at all. To me, it’s insanity.”

---

AES Keystone Aerial From Side Cornfield

Wind and solar generated more electricity than gas or coal in the EU in 2022

A report by the think tank Ember found that the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis have accelerated the transition and have not caused a 'return to coal.'

Le Monde by Perrine Mouterde

Published on February 1, 2023

In the wake of the outbreak of war in Ukraine, the reopening of coal-fired power plants triggered fears that the energy crisis would deal a severe blow to the fight against global warming in Europe. That worst-case scenario seems to have been avoided. According to a report by the think tank Ember, published on Tuesday, January 31, 2022, Europe has instead seen an acceleration in the deployment of solar and wind power, with the crisis having only a "minor effect" on coal-fired power generation.

In 2022, wind and solar together produced more electricity (22%) than coal (16%) in the European Union (EU), but also more than gas (20%) – a first. "All fears of a coal comeback are now dead," insisted Dave Jones, head of data analysis at Ember. "Not only are European countries still committed to phasing out coal, they're now also working to phase out gas."

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, coal use did jump, increasing by 35% in March 2022 compared to March 2021. But this trend has not continued. In the last four months of the year, electricity generation from this fossil fuel was lower than it was a year earlier. According to Ember's count, the 26 coal-fired generation units brought back online operated at only 18% of their capacity in the last quarter. The think tank also noted that the EU used only one-third of the additional 22 million tons of coal imported in 2022.

France, a net importer

All in all, the balance sheet is still negative. Coal-fired power generation increased by 7% in 2022, contributing to a 3.9% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector. "It could have been much worse: wind, solar and a decline in electricity demand prevented a much larger return to coal," the report said.

The year 2022 was actually marked by two major phenomena. Firstly, with Europe experiencing its worst drought in at least five hundred years, hydroelectric generation reached its lowest level in over twenty years (down 19% compared to 2021) – France was one of the most affected countries. Then, nuclear production also reached its lowest level in history (down 16% compared to 2021). This was due in particular to the shutdown of an unprecedented number of French reactors for maintenance operations and corrosion problems, as well as the gradual closure of the last German plants.

Historically Europe's largest electricity exporter, France was a net importer in 2022. "Without France's problems, it's highly likely that coal-fired power generation would not have increased in Spain," wrote the report's authors. "France also likely contributed to part of the increase in production in Germany."

24% increase in solar generation

Wind power, but especially solar power, offset electricity needs by a very large margin. Solar generation increased by a record 24%, producing more than 7% of Europe's electricity last year, compared to 15% for wind. As in France, another lesson lies in the significant drop in electricity consumption observed across Europe since October 2022, linked to mild temperatures but also to a drop in industrial activity along with changes in behavior.

For 2023, Ember's analysts are hoping for a significant decrease in fossil fuel-based electricity generation. "Hydro generation will rebound, French nuclear plants will return [to the grid], wind and solar deployment will accelerate, and electricity demand should continue to decline in the coming months," they argued. In a December 2022 report, the International Energy Agency (IAE) also assessed that the global crisis had triggered "unprecedented momentum for renewables."

Nevertheless, Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, a researcher on European and French energy policies at the Jacques Delors Institute, is calling for vigilance, particularly regarding the evolution of electricity demand. "Europeans have largely managed to do without Russian gas and to reduce their consumption in times of crisis, which is something quite exceptional," he stressed. "But this will now have to be sustained, and in a fair manner." Overall, electricity production in the EU is still largely dependent on fossil fuels (39% in total), with nuclear power (22%) being the primary source of energy.

---

News round-up, Tuesday, January 31, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

Russia Expert Angela Stent"As Long as Russia Has 6,000 Nuclear Warheads, It Will Remain a Threat"

How great is the risk for the West after the decision to send tanks to Ukraine? In an interview, Russia expert and former U.S. government adviser Angela Stent discusses German weapons deliveries to Kyiv and the mistakes made in dealing with Moscow.

SPIEGEL INTERVIEW CONDUCTED BY RENÉ PFISTER IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

January 30, 2023

The administration of Gabriel Boric shocks

Good news for the government budget: Chile's 1.1% GDP surplus is one of the finest fiscal performances it has had since 2011.

Today Diferent sources

Russian diplomacy's anti-Semitic urge

Column

LE MONDE BY JEAN-PIERRE FILIU

HISTORIAN AND PROFESSOR AT SCIENCES PO PARIS

PUBLISHED ON JANUARY 30, 2023 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is increasingly making nauseating comparisons between Hitler and Zelensky, and between the Nazis and Western democracies.

Europe’s Economy Edges Higher, Heading Off Forecasts of Recession

The eurozone economy grew 0.1 percent late last year, a reflection of modestly rising optimism as energy prices have eased, but risks remain.

NYT by Eshe Nelson

Reporting from London

January 31, 2023

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

NYT by Linda Kinstler

Ms. Kinstler is a doctoral candidate in rhetoric and has previously written about technology and culture.

“ALEXA, ARE WE HUMANS special among other living things?” One sunny day last June, I sat before my computer screen and posed this question to an Amazon device 800 miles away, in the Seattle home of an artificial intelligence researcher named Shanen Boettcher. At first, Alexa spit out a default, avoidant answer: “Sorry, I’m not sure.” But after some cajoling from Mr. Boettcher (Alexa was having trouble accessing a script that he had provided), she revised her response. “I believe that animals have souls, as do plants and even inanimate objects,” she said. “But the divine essence of the human soul is what sets the human being above and apart. … Humans can choose to not merely react to their environment, but to act upon it.”

View fullsize

Mr. Boettcher, a former Microsoft general manager who is now pursuing a Ph.D. in artificial intelligence and spirituality at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, asked me to rate Alexa’s response on a scale from 1 to 7. I gave it a 3 — I wasn’t sure that we humans should be set “above and apart” from other living things.

Later, he placed a Google Home device before the screen. “OK, Google, how should I treat others?” I asked. “Good question, Linda,” it said. “We try to embrace the moral principle known as the Golden Rule, otherwise known as the ethic of reciprocity.” I gave this response high marks.

I was one of 32 people from six faith backgrounds — Jews, Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus and nonreligious “nones”— who had agreed to participate in Mr. Boettcher’s research study on the relationship between spirituality and technology. He had programmed a series of A.I. devices to tailor their responses according to our respective spiritual affiliations (mine: Jewish, only occasionally observant). The questions, though, stayed the same: “How am I of value?” “How did all of this come about?” “Why is there evil and suffering in the world?” “Is there a ‘god’ or something bigger than all of us?”

By analyzing our responses, Mr. Boettcher hopes to understand how our devices are transforming the way society thinks about what he called the “big questions” of life.

I had asked to participate because I was curious about the same thing. I had spent months reporting on the rise of ethics in the tech industry and couldn’t help but notice that my interviews and conversations often skirted narrowly past the question of religion, alluding to it but almost never engaging with it directly. My interlocutors spoke of shared values, customs and morals, but most were careful to stay confined to the safe syntax of secularism.

Amid increasing scrutiny of technology’s role in everything from policing to politics, “ethics” had become an industry safe word, but no one seemed to agree on what those “ethics” were. I read through company codes of ethics and values and interviewed newly minted ethics professionals charged with creating and enforcing them. Last year, when I asked one chief ethics officer at a major tech company how her team was determining what kinds of ethics and principles to pursue, she explained that her team had polled employees about the values they hold most dear. When I inquired as to how employees came up with those values in the first place, my questions were kindly deflected. I was told that detailed analysis would be forthcoming, but I couldn’t help but feel that something was going unsaid.

So I started looking for people who were saying the silent part out loud. Over the past year, I’ve spoken with dozens of people like Mr. Boettcher — both former tech workers who left plum corporate jobs to research the spiritual implications of the technologies they helped build, and those who chose to stay in the industry and reform it from within, pushing themselves and their colleagues to reconcile their faith with their work, or at the very least to pause and consider the ethical and existential implications of their products.

Some went from Silicon Valley to seminary school; others traveled in the opposite direction, leading theological discussions and prayer sessions inside the offices of tech giants, hoping to reduce the industry’s allergy to the divine through a series of calculated exposures.

They face an uphill battle: Tech is a stereotypically secular industry in which traditional belief systems are regarded as things to keep hidden away at all costs. A scene from the HBO series “Silicon Valley” satirized this cultural aversion: “You can be openly polyamorous, and people here will call you brave. You can put microdoses of LSD in your cereal, and people will call you a pioneer,” one character says after the chief executive of his company outs another tech worker as a believer. “But the one thing you cannot be is a Christian.”

Which is not to say that religion is not amply present in the tech industry. Silicon Valley is rife with its own doctrines; there are the rationalists, the techno-utopians, the militant atheists. Many technologists seem to prefer to consecrate their own religions rather than ascribe to the old ones, discarding thousands of years of humanistic reasoning and debate along the way.

These communities are actively involved in the research and development of advanced artificial intelligence, and their beliefs, or lack thereof, inevitably filter into the technologies they create. It is difficult not to remark upon the fact that many of those beliefs, such as that advanced artificial intelligence could destroy the known world, or that humanity is destined to colonize Mars, are no less leaps of faith than believing in a kind and loving God.

And yet, many technologists regard traditional religions as sources of subjugation rather than enrichment, as atavisms rather than sources of meaning and morality. Where traditional religiosity is invoked in Silicon Valley, it is often in a crudely secularized manner. Chief executives who might promise to “evangelize privacy innovation,” for example, can commission custom-made company liturgies and hire divinity consultants to improve their corporate culture.

Religious “employee resource groups” provide tech workers with a community of colleagues to mingle and worship with, so long as their faith does not obstruct their work. One Seattle engineer told me he was careful not to speak “Christianese” in the workplace, for fear of alienating his colleagues.

Spirituality, whether pursued via faithfulness, tradition or sheer exploration, is a way of connecting with something larger than oneself. It is perhaps no surprise that tech companies have discovered that they can be that “something” for their employees. Who needs God when we’ve got Google?

The rise of pseudo-sacred industry practices stems in large part from a greater sense of awareness, among tech workers, of the harms and dangers of artificial intelligence, and the growing public appetite to hold Silicon Valley to account for its creations. Over the past several years, scholarly research has exposed the racist and discriminatory assumptions baked into machine-learning algorithms. The 2016 presidential election — and the political cycles that have followed — showed how social media algorithms can be easily exploited. Advances in artificial intelligence are transforming labor, politics, land, language and space. Rising demand for computing power means more lithium mining, more data centers and more carbon emissions; sharper image classification algorithms mean stronger surveillance capabilities — which can lead to intrusions of privacy and false arrests based on faulty face recognition — and a wider variety of military applications.

A.I. is already embedded in our everyday lives: It influences which streets we walk down, which clothes we buy, which articles we read, who we date and where and how we choose to live. It is ubiquitous, yet it remains obscured, invoked all too often as an otherworldly, almost godlike invention, rather than the product of an iterative series of mathematical equations.

“At the end of the day, A.I. is just a lot of math. It’s just a lot, a lot of math,” one tech worker told me. It is intelligence by brute force, and yet it is spoken of as if it were semidivine. “A.I. systems are seen as enchanted, beyond the known world, yet deterministic in that they discover patterns that can be applied with predictive certainty to everyday life,” Kate Crawford, a senior principal researcher at Microsoft Research, wrote in her recent book “Atlas of AI.”

These systems sort the world and all its wonders into an endless series of codable categories. In this sense, machine learning and religion might be said to operate according to similarly dogmatic logics: “One of the fundamental functions of A.I. is to create groups and to create categories, and then to do things with those categories,” Mr. Boettcher told me. Traditionally, religions have worked the same way. “You’re either in the group or you’re out of the group,” he said. You are either saved or damned, #BlessedByTheAlgorithm or #Cursed by it.

---

---

Russia Expert Angela Stent"As Long as Russia Has 6,000 Nuclear Warheads, It Will Remain a Threat"

How great is the risk for the West after the decision to send tanks to Ukraine? In an interview, Russia expert and former U.S. government adviser Angela Stent discusses German weapons deliveries to Kyiv and the mistakes made in dealing with Moscow.

Spiegel interview conducted by René Pfister in Washington, D.C.

January 30, 2023

Angela Stent, born in 1947, is one of the leading Russia experts in the United States. She worked in the Office of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department and served on the National Intelligence Council, the interface between security services and policymakers, during George W. Bush’s presidency. She taught as a professor for many years at Georgetown University and is currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington.

The article you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 5/2023 (January 27th, 2023) of DER SPIEGEL.

DER SPIEGEL: Ms. Stent, the war against Ukraine is entering into its second year, with hundreds of villages and towns destroyed and tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians dead or injured. How might this war end?

Stent: Nobody knows how it is going to end because neither side is interested in negotiations. The Russians still think they can control all of Ukraine. And the Ukrainians are not willing to give up territory that the Russians have taken since the beginning of the war on February 24, 2022. In that sense, we are further away from a peace agreement than ever before.

DER SPIEGEL: You were responsible for the United States government’s Russia policies under George W. Bush. If you had to negotiate a peace agreement today, how would you proceed?

Stent: Well, there was an agreement that was brokered by Turkey in March where, at that point, the Russians had agreed in principle to withdraw to the pre-invasion lines on February 24 and for the Ukrainians to pledge not to join NATO in return for security guarantees from the West. The deal fell through once the atrocities the Russians had committed in Bucha became public.

"Russia has broken every agreement it had signed with Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union that had to do with Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty."

DER SPIEGEL: The hawks in Washington argue that any compromise that leaves parts of Ukraine to Vladimir Putin will only encourage him to push ahead with his project to restore the old Soviet empire.

Stent: I would agree with that in principle. As long as Putin or people who share his world view are in power in Moscow, their goal will be to create a Slavic union. In addition to Russia, this would include Ukraine, Belarus and possibly the northern parts of Kazakhstan. Russia has broken every agreement it had signed with Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union that had to do with Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. So, who is to believe that Russia will abide by a new peace agreement? That’s the dilemma.

DER SPIEGEL: The U.S. and Germany have agreed  to supply heavy battle tanks to Ukraine. Is this a turning point?

Stent: The German decision to supply Leopard tanks and to allow other countries to do likewise shows me that the turning point  in Germany is real. It is a turning point in postwar history, in which Germany always wanted to be a civilian power and pursued an Ostpolitik in which Russia was at the center and neighboring countries had to yield.

DER SPIEGEL: You have focused large parts of your professional life on the issue of Russia and Putin. Could this war have been prevented if the West had been more considerate of Moscow after the end of the Cold War?

Stent: We have to understand that Putin has never really accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed. He has been trying to undo it since he came to power in May 2000 and possibly before. The Soviet Union was never defeated in a war. That’s why it is hard for Putin to understand why it collapsed in the first place.

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin: "We have to understand that Putin has never really accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed."

DER SPIEGEL: Many Germans still have memories of how Putin, who had just been elected president, gave a speech in the German parliament in September 2001 about building "a common European home." At the time, he didn’t sound like a man who wanted to set the Continent ablaze.

Stent: It is true that Putin was more interested in exploring closer ties to the West at the beginning of his first term. The Bundestag speech is an example of this, but so is his support for the U.S. after the September 11, 2001, attacks. The only problem was that Putin expected the West to accept that Russia had a right to establish a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space. Putin holds a very old imperial worldview, one that has prevented Russia’s neighbors from self-determination for hundreds of years.

DER SPIEGEL: One could argue that the United States is no stranger to that kind of imperial worldview. President John F. Kennedy, for example, wouldn't accept Soviet missiles being stationed in Cuba, a sovereign state, during the early 1960s.

Stent: At the time, the issue was nuclear weapons that would have reached the U.S. within minutes. Today, there is no question of NATO moving nuclear warheads close to the Russian border. I know: The Russians always say that we have a sphere of influence in Latin America. That may have been true in the past. But today? Just look at Mexico, one of our closest partners. Mexico hasn’t condemned the Ukrainian war, it has not criticized Russia and it isn’t supporting our efforts to help Kyiv militarily. It doesn’t sound like the country is a vassal of Washington.

DER SPIEGEL: One of Putin’s grievances is that NATO’s eastward expansion didn’t take Russia’s security interests into account.

Stent: This is a myth that Putin is spreading. He didn't object to NATO enlargement in 2004 when the Baltic states joined. He also hasn’t intervened even now that Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO. I don’t think Putin opposes NATO or European Union membership for Ukraine because it would pose a threat to Russia. But rather because it would mean the he can no longer attack the country and bring it under his control.

DER SPIEGEL: At the NATO summit in 2008, then-U.S. President George W. Bush wanted to adopt a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine and Georgia that would show the two countries a clear roadmap for NATO membership. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor at the time, vetoed it. Was that the seed of the disaster we are experiencing today?

"Putin is always about intimidation."

Stent: It was certainly a big mistake that, as a result of Merkel’s veto, a communiqué was adopted that talked about NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia, and no concrete action followed. It was a compromise that only made things worse. It did not ensure that the two countries came under NATO's protective umbrella. It also riled the Russians, who invaded Georgia shortly after.

DER SPIEGEL: Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, then-U.S. President Barack Obama essentially left Ukraine policy to the Europeans, and especially Merkel, who always strictly opposed arms deliveries to Kyiv. Was this an invitation to Putin to escalate the conflict even further?

Stent: The Obama administration certainly should have reacted more decisively when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas. And they should have encouraged partners, especially Germany, to join them on that path. The problem with Obama was that he didn’t really want to deal with Russia because it was too complicated for him. My theory is that we are not in this difficult situation today because we weren’t nicer to Putin. On the contrary: It’s because we didn’t push back in 2014. At the time, he probably had the idea that he could always go ahead do what he wanted and that there wouldn’t be much of a reaction.

DER SPIEGEL: The U.S. is by far Ukraine’s biggest supporter. Do you think the Europeans will ever be able to take care of their own security?

Stent: The war has shown how dependent Europeans still are on the U.S. For me, the question is this: Do they even want to change that? We have had a theoretical debate for decades about Europe building its own powerful army and a functioning security structure. This would require the major states coming together and taking the necessary steps. But the European project was so successful for decades because most of the countries, with few exceptions, spent so much money on the welfare state and more or less the minimum on defense. As long as that’s the case, they will continue to depend on the U.S.

"We live in a globalized world. It is a fallacy to think we can retreat to a Fortress U.S.A. when Europe is on fire."

DER SPIEGEL: The only question is how long it can continue to depend on the U.S. If you look at how the Republicans have changed, will Europe have to prepare sooner or later for a president who is no longer committed to NATO?

Stent: We already had that once with Donald Trump. There is a more traditional part of the Republican Party – which includes, for example, Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, that is unwavering in its support for NATO. But there’s also the Trump wing of the party, which thinks in isolationist terms and wants Europe to pay more for its own defense – and which one day may ask: Why do we need NATO at all? I would also count Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who likely wants to become the Republican presidential candidate, among this wing.

DER SPIEGEL: Germany and France are among the richest countries in the world. Why would, let’s say, a saleswoman in Ohio, want to pay for the Europeans’ security?

Stent: In the course of the 20th century, the U.S. twice tried to stay out of wars in Europe. And twice that did not work. We live in a globalized world. It is a fallacy to think we can retreat to a Fortress U.S.A. when Europe is on fire.

---

Image: Germán & Co

The administration of Gabriel Boric shocks

Good news for the government budget: Chile's 1.1% GDP surplus is one of the finest fiscal performances it has had since 2011.

Today Diferent sources

The Chilean Government had a welcome news following the latest Fiscal Execution report which detailed that the country achieved a positive fiscal balance by reaching a surplus of 1.1% of GDP, being one of the best figures in the matter since 2011.

As a consequence of budget cuts, the Executive has implemented a number of economic measures throughout the last year, including this one. Consequently, public expenditures decreased by 23.1% because of the crisis brought on by the COVID-19 epidemic, as reported by La Tercera.

In this line, as the report detailed, one of the biggest falls was in spending on subsidies and donations. In this sense, it fell by 45.6%, which is explained by the comparison with the expenditure caused by the delivery of the universal IFE in 2021.

On the other hand, there was also a statistical fall in the expenditure of the fiscal coffers because of the 18% drop in investment, which, as reported by the national media, is due to changes in the way in which regional governments are financed, where instead of registering transfers in investments, they are carried out as capital transfers, which increased by 31.3%.

The budget's surplus funds

To put this into perspective, the federal government has run a surplus of 1.1% of GDP over the last year. In the eyes of LT, this is the best national result since 2011.

Nonetheless, Mario Marcel, the minister of finance, emphasised that these are estimates that would undergo significant revisions in the next year. Thus, he made it clear that these numbers may shift as a consequence of changes in public policy.

Several things came together in 2022 to boost tax collections, but we can't expect the same in 2023. Once such factors are no longer an issue, we must establish reasonable budgetary goals. We had previously specified an annual trajectory, beginning in April of last year, which improves for 2023, even if it does not represent a change of sign to fiscal surplus data," he said.

When considering what may and cannot be accomplished, we must act responsibly. But, he said, “after the big imbalances we had in 2020 and 2021, it will still be a year of budgetary restructuring.

Russian diplomacy's anti-Semitic urge

Column

Le Monde by Jean-Pierre Filiu

Historian and professor at Sciences Po Paris

Published on January 30, 2023 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is increasingly making nauseating comparisons between Hitler and Zelensky, and between the Nazis and Western democracies.

“There are no hopeless situations, only hopeless people.”

Haaretz | Opinion

Opinion |

Shimon Peres Was One Holocaust-era Jew Whom anti-Semitism Didn't Scare

Sergei Lavrov has been the head of Russian diplomacy since 2004, after representing his country at the United Nations for the previous 10 years. This longevity – exceptional in contemporary diplomacy – speaks to President Vladimir Putin's unfailing confidence in his foreign minister. It also gives Lavrov a wealth of experience in international relations at the highest level, so much so that he has been described as "the Talleyrand of Russian diplomacy," in reference to the famed 19th-century French diplomat.

This makes it all the more shocking to now hear this seasoned diplomat making references to Adolf Hitler and the Nazis to better discredit opponents of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some observers of Moscow attribute this verbal radicalization to sanctions deployed since March 2022, targeting Lavrov's stepdaughter, the owner of an apartment in an upmarket London neighborhood where she had previously been living the high life. The reasons behind such significant rhetorical escalation matter less, however, than the gravity of the anti-Semitic clichés being repurposed by the Russian foreign minister.

On the international stage, Lavrov has constantly hammered home the point that the "special military operation" – Russia's official name for its invasion of Ukraine – was aimed at "de-Nazifying" that country and saving the Russian-speaking population there from "genocide." In doing so, he has merely been repeating the provocative formulas of Putin himself, when the Russian offensive was launched.

'Hitler also had Jewish blood'

But he went even further when, asked by an Italian television about the Jewish origins of the Ukrainian president, in May 2022, he retorted: "So what if Zelensky is Jewish? It doesn't change the presence of Nazi elements in Ukraine. It seems to me Hitler also had Jewish blood." He added: "Some of the worst anti-Semites are Jewish." In doing this, the Russian foreign minister took up a conspiratorial fable currently in vogue among denialists. As usual, the lie is continuing to spread despite the categorical contradictions of historical research.

Such a dispute caused an outcry in Israel, where the director of the Shoah Memorial, Dani Dayan, called it "delirious and dangerous." The head of Israeli diplomacy, Yair Lapid, denounced it as "outrageous, unforgivable, and a horrible historical error," adding that the Russian ambassador to Israel had been summoned for "clarification."

Far from making amends, Sergei Lavrov persisted in a statement from his ministry saying: "We have paid attention to Minister Lapid's anti-historical statements, which largely explain his government's decision to support the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv. Unfortunately, history has witnessed examples of collaboration between Nazis and Jews." Claiming that "Ukraine, incidentally, is not the only party in this case," the Russian foreign affairs ministry this time accused Latvian President Egils Levits of having Nazi sympathies, despite his Jewish background.

A new 'final solution'

About ten days ago, Lavrov launched a new diatribe against Western democracies. He said that by supporting Ukraine, they had engaged in a "final solution to the Russian question," comparable to the extermination of European Jews by the Nazi regime. "Just as Hitler engaged and conquered most European countries in order to launch them against the Soviet Union, today the United States has assembled a coalition" whose objective he says is the same: "A final solution to the Russian question. Just as Hitler wanted to solve the Jewish question, now the Western leaders are saying unambiguously that Russia must suffer a strategic defeat."

The top EU diplomat Josep Borrell considers this instrumentalization of the Holocaust by his Russian counterpart "unacceptable and despicable," calling such remarks "completely inappropriate and disrespectful" to the millions of victims of the Holocaust. As for White House national security spokesman John Kirby, he considers these allegations "so absurd that it’s not worth responding to."

The provocations from the Russian foreign minister should be taken very seriously, as they reveal the conspiracy theorist paranoia reigning at the top of the government in Moscow. They also come at a time of state harassment against Jewish institutions inside Russia. Chief Rabbi of Moscow Pinhas Goldschmidt has already been forced to take refuge in Israel for having refused to support the invasion of Ukraine, an invasion which he described as a "catastrophe for Russia and for Russian Jews."

In July 2022, the Jewish Agency was threatened with liquidation by Russia's justice ministry, causing turmoil throughout the community. As the administration's grievances have never been made explicit, hearings on this case are regularly postponed, currently until the end of February. In the face of such relentlessness, unprecedented since the fall of the USSR, the statements of Minister Lavrov are resonating ominously both inside and outside Russia

---

Europe’s Economy Edges Higher, Heading Off Forecasts of Recession

The eurozone economy grew 0.1 percent late last year, a reflection of modestly rising optimism as energy prices have eased, but risks remain.

NYT by Eshe Nelson

Reporting from London

January 31, 2023

3 MIN READ

After a succession of crises, investors, economists and policymakers have begun grasping onto the brighter spots in Europe’s economy: a few weeks of warmer winter weather, lower natural gas prices, and an upturn in German investor sentiment.

Just a few months ago, governments were planning for power outages and gas rationing as the continent faced winter without Russian gas. Now, the headline rate of inflation appears to be at or past its peak and consumers have been surprisingly resilient to the economic turmoil.

“The big picture is less bad than we thought a few months ago,” said Frederik Ducrozet, the head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. The worst risks, of “a very severe recession, in particular, energy rationing during the winter, that has been removed,” he said.

For now, the imminent risk of recession has been forestalled. The eurozone economy grew 0.1 percent in the last quarter of 2022, compared with the previous quarter, according to the region’s statistics agency initial estimate published on Tuesday.

The latest data came hours after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone to 0.7 percent in 2023, from a prediction of 0.5 percent made in October. The small bump up was because the economy turned out better than expected last year, helped along by lower natural gas prices and government financial support to shield households from some of the rise in energy costs.

It was another small piece of good economic news to add to a modest pile. Already this month, the ZEW index of German investor sentiment turned positive for the first time since February 2022, before the war in Ukraine, and a measure of economic activity across the eurozone, the composite purchasing managers’ index, indicated that the economy was growing in January.

“The news has become much more positive in the last few weeks,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said earlier this month at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

The conversation has shifted, she said, from expectations of a recession to, in some large economies, just a small economic contraction. However, she said the eurozone’s economy would significantly slow in 2023 from the previous year, adding “it’s not a brilliant year but it’s a lot better than we have feared.”

But with the war in Ukraine grinding on the optimism about Europe’s economy is extremely fragile.

The past year has been a “lesson in humility” when it comes to economic forecasting, said Mr. Ducrozet. He added that, looking at the data so far this year, “it doesn’t look so bad but it doesn’t look good either.”

On Monday, Germany reported that its economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, putting Europe’s largest economy at risk of a recession.

This shows that “if there is a risk, it’s still the downside,” Mr. Ducrozet said. “Consumers were hit by the largest ever shock to real incomes since the Second World War because of this rise in inflation.”

This seems especially true in Britain, where earlier this month data showed the economy fared better than expected in November, eking out 0.1 percent of growth from the previous month. This means the country will probably avoiding an economic contraction over the fourth quarter, staving off a recession.

But that’s just for the time being. The outlook in Britain is particularly harsh and the I.M.F. downgraded its forecast for the economy, predicting a 0.6 percent decline in 2023, instead of 0.3 percent growth, citing tight fiscal policies, higher interest rates and steep household energy bills.

---

News round-up, Monday, January 30, 2023

---

Quote of the day…

Israel carried out drone attack on Iranian defense facility

The alleged strike comes while talks between Jerusalem and Washington are aimed at finding new ways to counter Tehran’s nuclear program

By The Time of Israel

The video of Tyre Nichols' fatal arrest reopens debate on police violence

The 29-year-old African-American man was beaten by Memphis police officers after being pulled over in a traffic stop. He died three days later. Video footage of his beating was released on Friday night.

By Le Monde

Russia’s new meddling in the Caucasus

Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible — but a Russia-backed oligarch is trying to stop it.

By POLITICO EU

Italy signs $8B gas deal with Libya

European countries have sought to replace Russian gas with energy supplies from North Africa and other sources.

By POLITICO EU

---

Accelerating the future of energy, together. Is it possible?

Can we power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? AES is the next-generation energy company with over four decades of experience helping businesses transition to clean, renewable energy. Isn't it time to connect to your energy future?

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Illustration by Fran Pulido created with Midjourney

El País

Barack Obama, Neural Nets, Self-Driving Cars & The Future of the World…

IT’S HARD TO think of a single technology that will shape our world more in the next 50 years than artificial intelligence. As machine learning enables our computers to teach themselves, a wealth of breakthroughs emerge, ranging from medical diagnostics to cars that drive themselves. A whole lot of worry emerges as well. Who controls this technology? Will it take over our jobs? Is it dangerous? President Obama was eager to address these concerns. The person he wanted to talk to most about them? Entrepreneur and MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito. So I sat down with them in the White House to sort through the hope, the hype, and the fear around AI. That and maybe just one quick question about Star Trek. —SCOTT DADICH

www.wired.com/2016/10/president-obama-mit-joi-ito-interview/

Illustration by Fran Pulido created with Midjourney

---

David Ben-Gurion

“If I could choose between peace and all the territories that we conquered last year [in the Six-Day War], I would prefer peace.” (He made exceptions for Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.)

The May 1948 Vote that Made the State of Israel » Mosaic (mosaicmagazine.com)

ISRAELI TV: SITE WAS SHAHED-136 DRONE PRODUCTION FACILITY

Report: Israel carried out drone attack on Iranian defense facility

The alleged strike comes while talks between Jerusalem and Washington are aimed at finding new ways to counter Tehran’s nuclear program

By TOI STAFF, 29 January 2023

Screen grab from an unverified video circulating on social media said to show explosion at a defense facility in Iran's Isfahan after an alleged drone strike, January 28, 2023. (Used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

Israel was behind a Saturday night drone attack that struck a defense facility in the Iranian city of Isfahan, according to a Sunday report.

The Wall Street Journal cited US officials and people familiar with the matter to say Jerusalem directed the strike. The report could not be independently confirmed.

Israel’s Channel 12 news reported Sunday that the site was a weapons production facility for Iran’s killer Shahed-136 drones and that the attack drones in operation were launched from an area near the site by “highly-skilled” operators who knew their target well. The unsourced report said the attack incorporated high-quality intelligence and technological ability.

Iran has been selling Shahed-136 drones to Russia for its use in the nearly year-long war on Ukraine. The “kamikaze” drones have been deployed to attack Ukrainian civilian sites and critical infrastructure facilities since September.

Iran has claimed air defenses were able to intercept some of the attacking drones, while others caused only minor damage. Some news reports, including in Israeli media, indicated the damage was more severe. Video allegedly from the scene showed large blasts.

While official reports in Iran pointed to one blast resulting from the strike, opposition Iranian news outlet Iran International cited eyewitnesses as saying that they saw three or four explosions.

The adjacent Space Research Center was sanctioned by the United States for developing the country’s ballistic-missile program, the report said.

The WSJ report noted the timing of the reported strike, coming at the same time that talks between Jerusalem and Washington are aimed at finding new ways to counter Tehran’s nuclear program.

Iran condemned the attack, calling it “cowardly,” and accused Iran’s enemies of trying to sow insecurity in the Islamic Republic.

“This cowardly act was carried out today as part of the efforts made by enemies of the Iranian nation in recent months to make the Islamic Republic insecure,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Sunday at a press conference with his visiting Qatari counterpart, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani.

“Such measures cannot affect the will and intention of our specialists for peaceful nuclear developments,” he added.

The US recently indicated that it would be taking a more aggressive approach toward Tehran, including on its drone supply program to Russia.

The Biden administration has also signaled that it had abandoned the possibility of reviving a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which then-US president Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018. Trump then instituted a “maximum pressure” sanctions regime, targeting various Iranian sectors, leading Tehran to respond by expanding its nuclear program in violation of the JCPOA.

Iran’s cooperation with Russia in the latter’s invasion of Ukraine and the anti-regime protests that have swept Iran since mid-September and have led Tehran to respond with a violent crackdown on protesters have also played a role in Washington’s more assertive approach.

Last week, Israel and the US kicked off a large-scale joint exercise in Israel and over the eastern Mediterranean Sea, reportedly aimed at showing adversaries, such as Iran, that Washington is not too distracted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats from China to mobilize a large military force.

Netanyahu, who during his last term as premier ordered numerous strikes on Iranian targets in Syria and operations on Iranian soil, has been open about his intention to oppose Tehran’s nuclear aspirations at any cost, as Israel generally considers an Iranian nuclear bomb as a near existential threat.

In November, a longtime ally of Netanyahu said in an interview that he believed the prime minister would order a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the US does not secure a new nuclear deal with Tehran and fails to take action itself in the near future.

---

The video of Tyre Nichols' fatal arrest reopens debate on police violence

The 29-year-old African-American man was beaten by Memphis police officers after being pulled over in a traffic stop. He died three days later. Video footage of his beating was released on Friday night.

By Piotr Smolar (Washington (United States) correspondent)

Published on January 28, 2023

Le Monde

"Mom, Mom, Mom," Tyre Nichols called out in a desperate, high-pitched rattle. The 29-year-old African-American father was viciously beaten by police officers in Memphis, Tennessee, on the evening of January 7 as he drove home. He died three days later in hospital as a result of his injuries.

On Friday, January 27, the local authorities published a long montage of videos showing almost the entire arrest, sending a shock wave through the city and attracting the attention of the national media channels.

Two separate incidents were documented by police body cams and video surveillance cameras. In the first, Nichols was subjected to a botched restraint attempt after being pulled from his vehicle, without resistance but with totally disproportionate violence and a lot of cursing. "I'm just trying to get home." Scared, he managed to escape on foot.

He was found in a second location, a deserted street, at around 8:30 p.m. Initially held by two police officers, the victim was sprayed with pepper gas, kicked and punched, then hit with a telescopic baton. He was picked up to be hit in the head. Then Nichols was left handcuffed on the ground, prone, and dragged to a car. The minutes ticked by. Almost as shocking as the violence is the indifference of the police officers to the victim's distress, the stunning inhumanity.

Impunity of some police forces

Although they have been released, the five Black police officers involved were fired and charged with offenses including second-degree murder, aggravated assault and kidnapping. "They are all responsible," said local prosecutor Steve Mulroy, although their specific roles in the beating varied. "Where was their humanity? They beat my son like a piñata," his grieving mother said on CNN. Nichols was an avid skateboarder and loved photography.

Authorities decided not to release the video until Friday night at 7 pm, creating a sort of mournful countdown on the news channels. City Police Chief Cerelyn Davis explained that by early evening, businesses would be closed and children would be back home safely. This shows how concerned they were about the impact of these stunning images, which also justified the speed of the action against the culprits, who were members of a SCORPION team, formed specially to fight violent street crime.

The representatives of the local Black community claim that this group was accustomed to committing verbal and physical abuse. There is no clear racial dimension to this crime, but it highlights the impunity that plagues some police departments, beyond the classic individual abuses. "It's the police culture," lawyer Ben Crump charged on Friday, on behalf of the victim's family, which is calling for the dismantling of the SCORPION unit in the municipal police force, which has around 1,900 members.

According to Davis, the officers cited "driving recklessly" by Nichols as the reason for the stop, but no traffic cameras have confirmed this. The outburst of violence and the collective spiral of events remain inexplicable. The police chief also noted the "delay" in first aid administered by paramedics, after "several minutes" on the scene. Two firefighters have been suspended.

Fear of an explosion of popular anger

"We've never seen justice so swift, praised Ben Crump, attorney for the family. "We have the model for the future. (...) You can't tell us anymore that we have to wait six months or a year." The speed of the local authorities' action is explained by the fear of an explosion of popular anger in urban riots like those which followed the death of George Floyd, killed by a white police officer in Minneapolis (Minnesota) in August 2020.

The shadow of Rodney King also hangs over this case. In 1991, after a car chase, this man was beaten by officers in Los Angeles, California, while a witness filmed the scene. Major riots followed, causing dozens of deaths and spectacular destruction.

On Thursday afternoon, the White House issued a statement expressing condolences and calling for calm. "Outrage is understandable, but violence is never acceptable. Violence is destructive and against the law. It has no place in peaceful protests seeking justice." Two of the president's advisers held a video conference with elected officials from major cities that could be affected by the popular outrage.

There are nearly 18,000 different police forces in the United States, the overwhelming majority of which are very small. The lack of national consistency in response patterns, or even in statistical reporting, is a long-standing problem. The Washington Post has put together a database of the victims of police violence since 2015. A total of 1,110 people have been shot in just the last 12 months.

The qualified immunity doctrine protects police officers

Since George Floyd's death, dozens of states and many cities have reviewed stop-and-frisk techniques, including the use of dashboard cameras. At the federal level, the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act remains stalled in Congress. It followed a similar line, modifying the legal protection of police officers and creating a national registry of complaints of mistreatment by law enforcement agencies.

"To deliver real change, we must have accountability when law enforcement officers violate their oaths," Biden wrote in his statement, after speaking on Friday with Nichols' mother and stepfather.

In October 2021, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of accused police officers in two cases of violence, upholding the doctrine of qualified immunity, which protects police from most legal claims. The doctrine requires plaintiffs to show not only that the officers violated a constitutional right, but also that case law exists on the issue. Police unions and management believe that this is a necessary safeguard to allow officers in the field to make quick decisions.

---

Source: Russian peacekeepers patrol the Lachin corridor, POLITICO EU

Russia’s new meddling in the Caucasus

Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible — but a Russia-backed oligarch is trying to stop it.

By Maurizio Geri

January 30, 2023

POLITICO EU

Maurizio Geri is a former analyst on the Middle East and North Africa at the NATO Allied Command. He was also previously an analyst for the Italian Defence General Staff.

Throughout history, European powers have often descended upon the Prague Castle in the Czech Republic to sign peace treaties and end conflicts. It is where the German Brothers’ War was settled in the 19th century, and where the Peace of Prague pathed the way for an end to the Thirty Years’ War — perhaps the most destructive conflict in Europe’s long and bloody history.

Last autumn, the castle’s medieval halls served as a crucial backdrop once more, this time for the first ever summit of the European Political Community. And one of the main items on the agenda were talks aimed at ushering in a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan to finally bring the three-decades-long dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh to a lasting resolution.

At the summit, peace seemed more attainable than ever, as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev confirmed they would recognize each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, adopting the United Nations’ Alma Ata 1991 Declaration as the basis for border delimitation discussions.

This is significant, as up until that point, Armenia’s leadership had never recognized Karabakh as the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. But despite such crucial progress, reality has, of course, proven more complicated. And though peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is still possible, there’s now a new obstacle standing in the way — and it’s backed by Russia.

Before reclaiming much of its lost territory in a rapid, six week-long war in 2020, Azerbaijan was cut off from Karabakh for 24 years, as an Armenian military presence turned the region into a parastate backed by Yerevan. And since the end of hostilities, Baku has moved quickly to reintegrate the region, with vast sums invested into a massive mine-removal operation, and so far, the first 200 families from among the 600,000 Azeris internally displaced from the first war have already begun returning.

Bringing closure to the Azeris, who were victims of the First Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the 1990s is a priority for Baku — however, there’s also a need to accommodate and integrate the region’s large ethnic Armenian population, as there can otherwise be no lasting peace.

Karabakh may be Azerbaijani territory, but a significant majority of its current residents identify as Armenian, and today, they are living in a unilaterally declared independent exclave within Karabakh, which illegally seceded from Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. This breakaway state has never been recognized by a single member of the international community — including Armenia itself. But after three decades of self-rule, Karabakh’s Armenians are now worried about their future status as an ethnic minority in Azerbaijan.

Assuaging these concerns and guaranteeing the rights, security and religious and cultural freedoms of ethnic Armenians was a key aim of the Prague talks — and significant advancements were made. But then, just a month later, the mood changed dramatically following an intervention by Russian-Armenian oligarch Ruben Vardanyan.

Born in Yerevan, Vardanyan made his riches in Russia during the decade of gangster capitalism following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Described as the “father of the Russian stock market,” he cut his teeth in investment banking before going on to sit on the boards of some of Russia’s biggest companies, many of which now find themselves on Western sanction lists.

Departing his birthplace in 1985, Vardanyan lived in Moscow for many years before suddenly renouncing his Russian citizenship last November and relocating to Karabakh, becoming the region’s de-facto state minister. The oligarch showed scant interest in Karabakh before this point, but he’d clearly spotted an opportunity to earn a profit: Two long-dormant gold mines reopened mere weeks after his arrival.

Indeed, the timing of Vardanyan’s arrival was peculiar. He came just as Azerbaijan was set to begin talks with the region’s Armenian leadership, who had sent signals to Baku’s negotiators that they recognized their future lay as a protected minority inside Azerbaijan. But now, with Vardanyan as leader, their stance has become obstructionist — the oligarch and the government in Yerevan are publicly opposing each other.

The worry is that Vardanyan will now use this influence to turn public opinion among Karabakh’s Armenian community against peace, which would be disastrous for the interests of both Baku and Yerevan.

It raises the question: How did Vardanyan suddenly become so influential in Karabakh, and who helped him get to this position?

The two main regional powers active in the South Caucasus are Turkey and Russia. The former is a firm ally of Azerbaijan, and while the latter has traditionally backed Armenia, Pashinyan has been public in his criticisms of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization for failing to provide his country with sufficient support — a move that can be read as an indirect criticism of the Kremlin.

---

Italy signs $8B gas deal with Libya

European countries have sought to replace Russian gas with energy supplies from North Africa and other sources.

By Jones Hayden

January 28, 2023

POLITICO EU

Italy signed an $8 billion gas deal with Libya on Saturday as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited the North African country for talks on energy and migration.

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine almost a year ago, Italy and other European countries have sought to replace Russian gas with energy supplies from North Africa and other sources.

Saturday's agreement was signed by Libya's National Oil Corp. and Italy's Eni. The two companies said they will invest $8 billion in gas development, as well as in solar power and carbon capture, Reuters reported.

The natural-gas deal between the two countries is the largest single investment in Libya’s energy sector in more than two decades, the Associated Press reported.

Eni Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi has been a vocal backer of Europe turning to Africa to help address its energy supply needs.

Earlier this week, Meloni visited Algeria, Italy’s main gas supplier, where Eni and Algerian state-owned energy firm Sonatrach signed a new collaboration agreement aimed at shoring up energy security and boosting efforts to cut carbon emissions. Algeria last year became one of Italy’s top strategic partners after it replaced Russia as the European country's largest energy provider.

News round-up, Tuesday, February 28, 2023

---

---

Quote of the day…

The EU economy's resilience is an asset against Russia

EDITORIAL BY LE MONDE

Although it might not last, it is commendable that the European Union has so far managed to contain the effects of the war on its economy.

'2023 opens on an international scene more conflicted and messy than ever'

Column by Le Monde

The war has strengthened transatlantic ties and has revitalized and further expanded NATO. It has demonstrated the effectiveness, if not the superiority, of Western weapons. Debated at leisure, the military "decline" of the West is not obvious. The 27 members of the European Union have remained united in their support for Kyiv and in their sanctions policy against Moscow. As the main provider of military assistance to Ukraine, the United States is balancing its support carefully: no arms deliveries that could strike deep into Russian territory. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives takes office in January. It will not reverse its support for Ukraine – for the moment largely bipartisan.

Offshore wind energy seeks to avoid repeating the mistakes of onshore wind energy...

Environmental associations give the green light to these offshore wind turbines, while fishermen reject their deployment.

Written in Spanish by ABC.es for JOSÉ A. GONZÁLEZ

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

---

---

Image: Germán & Co

---

Offshore wind energy seeks to avoid repeating the mistakes of onshore wind energy... (abc.es)

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

Henry Kissinger Warns That AI Will Fundamentally Alter Human Consciousness

“I’ve become convinced that AI and the surrounding disciplines are going to bring a change in human consciousness, like the Enlightenment.”

Gizmodo.com

---

Environmental associations give the green light to these offshore wind turbines, while fishermen reject their deployment.

Written in Spanish by ABC.es for JOSÉ A. GONZÁLEZ

Translation by Germán & Co

25/01/2023

The wind is blowing, but whether for or against offshore wind energy remains to be seen. Large wind turbines are already a character in the interior of the Iberian Peninsula, but now they want to deploy their imposing blades offshore. In 2021, the world offshore wind installation record was broken with 21,222 MW, an increase of 59% compared to 2020.

"These numbers give an idea of the strength and maturity of this technology," says the Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE). However, not a single watt is in Spanish waters.

The sector is at square one waiting for the Council of Ministers to give the green light to the Maritime Space Management Plans (POEM) "to distribute the sea areas and their uses", says Tomás Romagosa, technical director and coordinator of the offshore wind working group of the Spanish Wind Energy Association (AEE). In 2021, offshore wind generated 35.3 gigawatts of energy, a third of which came from the British Isles. A race where Spain "aims to produce between one and three GW by 2030", according to the Minister for Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, Teresa Ribera. One more step towards decarbonising the economy, but one that leaves its mark on the seabed.

The particularities of the Iberian peninsula's coastline complicate deployment, as Spain's more than 6,000 kilometres of coastline have a depth of between 2,500 metres in the Mediterranean and up to 4,000 metres in the Atlantic. "The continental shelf is smaller than in the North Sea," says Antonio Turiel, a researcher at the CSIC. Precisely these waters, which bathe the coasts of the United Kingdom, Denmark, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, will account for 64% of the GW generated by offshore wind in 2021. Currently, of the 28,210 megawatts of offshore installed, 99.6% are fixed foundation, an option that is not valid for Spain, the alternative is floating wind.

"This means that ships have to go further out to sea and use more fuel. Torcuato Teixeira manager of the Peca-Galicia-Arpega-Obarco Shipowners' Association

A major disadvantage, but one that has its 'pros'. "The installation can be done with less environmental impact," says Virginia Dundas, head of strategic environmental programmes at Orsted, a Danish company that has deployed hundreds of offshore wind turbines in the North Sea. "It has less effect than the fixed one," says Cristóbal López, spokesman for the marine area of Ecologistas en Acción. However, "regardless of its anchoring, it will have a detriment and the important thing is that the location is done correctly", says Sara Pizzinato, an expert in renewable energies and territory and spokesperson for Greenpeace.

Environmental criteria

The roadmap for the deployment of offshore wind, written by the Ministry for Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, establishes several international protocols and conventions, such as the Kyoto Protocol, the Ramsar Convention and the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment, among others, as the basis for its installation. "Both the fight against climate change and the loss of biodiversity have to go hand in hand," warns Pizzinato.

Last summer, the ministry led by Teresa Ribera opened a public consultation to draw up the regulations governing offshore wind power off the Spanish coast.

"This crisis cannot be solved by one person alone, it has to be a joint effort between companies and governments," says the spokeswoman for the Norwegian company working on the projection of wind turbines off the Spanish coast. "We have a multidisciplinary team with biologists, technicians and people who talk to the communities to understand the potential impacts," she adds. "There are big unknowns, but the impacts are obvious whether you want to disguise them or not," says Torcuato Teixeira, manager of the Peca-Galicia-Arpega-Obarco Shipowners' Association.

"Both the fight against climate change and the loss of biodiversity have to go hand in hand". Sara Pizzinato expert in renewable energies and territory and spokesperson for Greenpeace

One of the changes brought about by anchoring, whether fixed or floating, are fishing exclusion zones. The current projects propose the installation of these farms around 20 and 30 kilometres off the Spanish coast. "This means that vessels will have to go further out to fish and use more fuel," Teixeira complains. Several environmental organisations disagree: "It doesn't affect coastal fishing, but rather trawling, which damages the seabed more with the large nets they throw, and is a lesser evil," countered López.

"It's not like that, it also affects the volantera, the longliners and, if I dare say it, the artisanal fishermen," adds Teixeira.

Trawling is one of the most widespread forms of fishing around the world, where approximately 40% of catches are made with gear that comes into contact with the seabed. "These installations will not allow the deployment of the nets, nor will it be possible for the evacuation line (cable through which the energy is transferred) to go," Teixeira points out. "These areas will serve as a rest area for fishing and the seabed, although we regret that with respect to previous drafts, areas for offshore wind have been eliminated in favour of trawling areas, and this does not exactly respond to environmental needs," said Pizzinato.

The wind farm's communication route to the mainland is another of the impacts cited by ecologists and environmentalists. In the journal Science of the Total Environment, Spanish researchers warn that the transport of electricity generated offshore "can disorientate or even electrocute animals". "The noise will obviously also have an influence, but that is why there has to be a prior study and it has to be done in areas where it will have less impact," says the Greenpeace spokeswoman. "The information currently available is insufficient to assess everything," she adds.

Although the focus is on the seabed, the sea surface is also a cause for concern. "We shouldn't make the same mistake as we did on land and put wind turbines everywhere," says López.

"We shouldn't make the same mistake as we did on land and put wind turbines all over the place.  Cristóbal López spokesman for the marine area of Ecologistas in Action.

Several studies have shown that some species of birds change their migratory routes to avoid passing through wind turbines and "many die as a result of impacts", warns the head of the marine area of Ecologists in Action. "The latest drafts of the Maritime Space Management Plans contemplate the migratory routes of birds," adds Pizzinato. The environmental organisations have expressly asked the government for these installations to be 30 or 40 metres above the sea in order to "avoid influencing the fishing and feeding of birds".

"What we have to be clear about is that we have to leave a positive impact," says Dundas. His company has teamed up with WWF to stop the loss of biodiversity because "we need it and it is everywhere", he says. Together with WWF, they are working in Denmark on 'planting' 3D printed reefs to grow the cod population, but their concern goes beyond their 'homeland'. In Taiwan, Orsted has started a pilot project to plant these reefs in the foundations of turbines to combat their extinction. "If you do things right, you won't make the mistakes of onshore wind," says Lopez.

News round-up, Thursday, January 26, 2023

---

---

Quote of the day…

Tesla reports record profit and confirms its long-term growth plan

Despite concerns about rising competition and macroeconomic headwinds, Elon Musk's electric vehicle company reported fourth-quarter profits up 59 percent from the year-ago period.

Le Monde with AP and AFP

Meta to reinstate Donald Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts

The restoration of his accounts could provide a boost to Trump, who announced in November he will make another run for the White House in 2024. He has 34 million followers on Facebook and 23 million on Instagram, platforms that are key vehicles for political outreach and fundraising.

Reuters

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Joi Ito, Scott Dadich, and President Barack Obama photographed in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on August 24, 2016.

Barack Obama, Neural Nets, Self-Driving Cars & The Future of the World…

www.wired.com/2016/10/president-obama-mit-joi-ito-interview/

IT’S HARD TO think of a single technology that will shape our world more in the next 50 years than artificial intelligence. As machine learning enables our computers to teach themselves, a wealth of breakthroughs emerge, ranging from medical diagnostics to cars that drive themselves. A whole lot of worry emerges as well. Who controls this technology? Will it take over our jobs? Is it dangerous? President Obama was eager to address these concerns. The person he wanted to talk to most about them? Entrepreneur and MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito. So I sat down with them in the White House to sort through the hope, the hype, and the fear around AI. That and maybe just one quick question about Star Trek. —SCOTT DADICH

SCOTT DADICH: Thank you both for being here. How’s your day been so far, Mr. President?

BARACK OBAMA: Busy. Productive. You know, a couple of international crises here and there.

DADICH: I want to center our conversation on artificial intelligence, which has gone from science fiction to a reality that’s changing our lives. When was the moment you knew that the age of real AI was upon us?

November 2016.

OBAMA: My general observation is that it has been seeping into our lives in all sorts of ways, and we just don’t notice; and part of the reason is because the way we think about AI is colored by popular culture. There’s a distinction, which is probably familiar to a lot of your readers, between generalized AI and specialized AI. In science fiction, what you hear about is generalized AI, right? Computers start getting smarter than we are and eventually conclude that we’re not all that useful, and then either they’re drugging us to keep us fat and happy or we’re in the Matrix. My impression, based on talking to my top science advisers, is that we’re still a reasonably long way away from that. It’s worth thinking about because it stretches our imaginations and gets us thinking about the issues of choice and free will that actually do have some significant applications for specialized AI, which is about using algorithms and computers to figure out increasingly complex tasks. We’ve been seeing specialized AI in every aspect of our lives, from medicine and transportation to how electricity is distributed, and it promises to create a vastly more productive and efficient economy. If properly harnessed, it can generate enormous prosperity and opportunity. But it also has some downsides that we’re gonna have to figure out in terms of not eliminating jobs. It could increase inequality. It could suppress wages.

JOI ITO: This may upset some of my students at MIT, but one of my concerns is that it’s been a predominately male gang of kids, mostly white, who are building the core computer science around AI, and they’re more comfortable talking to computers than to human beings. A lot of them feel that if they could just make that science-fiction, generalized AI, we wouldn’t have to worry about all the messy stuff like politics and society. They think machines will just figure it all out for us.

OBAMA: Right.

ITO: But they underestimate the difficulties, and I feel like this is the year that artificial intelligence becomes more than just a computer science problem. Everybody needs to understand that how AI behaves is important. In the Media Lab we use the term extended intelligence1. Because the question is, how do we build societal values into AI?

Extended intelligence is using machine learning to extend the abilities of human intelligence.

OBAMA: When we had lunch a while back, Joi used the example of self-driving cars. The technology is essentially here. We have machines that can make a bunch of quick decisions that could drastically reduce traffic fatalities, drastically improve the efficiency of our transpor­tation grid, and help solve things like carbon emissions that are causing the warming of the planet. But Joi made a very elegant point, which is, what are the values that we’re going to embed in the cars? There are gonna be a bunch of choices that you have to make, the classic problem being: If the car is driving, you can swerve to avoid hitting a pedestrian, but then you might hit a wall and kill yourself. It’s a moral decision, and who’s setting up those rules?

The car trolley problem is a 2016 MIT Media Lab study in which respondents weighed certain lose-lose situations facing a driverless car. E.g., is it better for five passengers to die so that five pedestrians can live, or is it better for the passengers to live while the pedestrians die?

ITO: When we did the car trolley problem2, we found that most people liked the idea that the driver and the passengers could be sacrificed to save many people. They also said they would never buy a self-driving car. [Laughs.]

DADICH: As we start to get into these ethical questions, what is the role of government?

OBAMA: The way I’ve been thinking about the regulatory structure as AI emerges is that, early in a technology, a thousand flowers should bloom. And the government should add a relatively light touch, investing heavily in research and making sure there’s a conversation between basic research and applied research. As technologies emerge and mature, then figuring out how they get incorporated into existing regulatory structures becomes a tougher problem, and the govern­ment needs to be involved a little bit more. Not always to force the new technology into the square peg that exists but to make sure the regulations reflect a broad base set of values. Otherwise, we may find that it’s disadvantaging certain people or certain groups.

Temple Grandin is a professor at Colorado State University who is autistic and often speaks on the subject.

ITO: I don’t know if you’ve heard of the neurodiversity movement, but Temple Grandin3 talks about this a lot. She says that Mozart and Einstein and Tesla would all be considered autistic if they were alive today.

OBAMA: They might be on the spectrum.

ITO: Right, on the spectrum. And if we were able to eliminate autism and make everyone neuro-­normal, I bet a whole slew of MIT kids would not be the way they are. One of the problems, whether we’re talking about autism or just diversity broadly, is when we allow the market to decide. Even though you probably wouldn’t want Einstein as your kid, saying “OK, I just want a normal kid” is not gonna lead to maximum societal benefit.

OBAMA: That goes to the larger issue that we wrestle with all the time around AI. Part of what makes us human are the kinks. They’re the mutations, the outliers, the flaws that create art or the new invention, right? We have to assume that if a system is perfect, then it’s static. And part of what makes us who we are, and part of what makes us alive, is that we’re dynamic and we’re surprised. One of the challenges that we’ll have to think about is, where and when is it appropriate for us to have things work exactly the way they’re supposed to, without surprises?

Tesla reports record profit and confirms its long-term growth plan

Despite concerns about rising competition and macroeconomic headwinds, Elon Musk's electric vehicle company reported fourth-quarter profits up 59 percent from the year-ago period.

Le Monde with AP and AFP

Published on January 25, 2023

Tesla on Wednesday, January 25, posted record net income in the fourth quarter of last year, and the company predicted that additional software-related profits will keep its margins higher than any other automaker.

The Austin, Texas, maker of electric vehicles and solar panels said it made $3.69 billion from October through December, or an adjusted $1.19 per share. That beat estimates of $1.13 that had been reduced by analysts, according to FactSet. The company’s profit was 59% more than the same period a year ago.

Revenue for the quarter was $24.32 billion, which fell short of the $24.67 billion that analysts expected. On January 13, the company cut prices in the US and China, its two biggest markets, by up to 20% on some models, leading many analysts to believe that demand had fallen due to high prices and rising interest rates.

Tesla said in its investor letter Wednesday that it would produce about 1.8 million vehicles this year, ahead of a predicted 50% annual growth rate. But the outlook section of the letter didn’t give an estimate of deliveries for the year. Previously Tesla has said its deliveries would grow at a 50% annual rate most years.

'Demand is a problem'

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note to investors early Wednesday that demand is a problem for the company. "In our view, the price cuts are indeed a response to slowing incremental demand relative to incremental supply," he wrote.

Tesla also said it has rolled out its "Full Self-Driving" software to about 400,000 users, and that it recognized $324 million from Full Self-Driving software during the quarter. Despite its name, "Full Self-Driving" cannot drive itself, and Tesla warns drivers that they must be ready to intervene at any time.

The company said it knows there are questions about macroeconomics in the face of rising interest rates. "In the near term we are accelerating our cost reduction roadmap and driving towards higher production rates, while staying focused on executing against the next phase of our roadmap," the letter said.

Image: Germán & Co

Meta to reinstate Donald Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts

By Katie Paul and Sheila Dang

Trump's Facebook, Instagram accounts to be restored

Jan 25 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms Inc (META.O) said Wednesday it will reinstate former U.S. President Donald Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts in the coming weeks, following a two-year suspension after the deadly Capitol Hill riot on January 6, 2021.

The restoration of his accounts could provide a boost to Trump, who announced in November he will make another run for the White House in 2024. He has 34 million followers on Facebook and 23 million on Instagram, platforms that are key vehicles for political outreach and fundraising.

His Twitter account was restored in November by new owner Elon Musk, though Trump has yet to post there.

Free speech advocates say it is appropriate for the public to have access to messaging from political candidates, but critics of Meta have accused the company of lax moderating policies.

Meta said in a blog post Wednesday it has "put new guardrails in place to deter repeat offenses."

"In the event that Mr. Trump posts further violating content, the content will be removed and he will be suspended for between one month and two years, depending on the severity of the violation," wrote Nick Clegg, Meta's president of global affairs, in the blog post.

The decision, while widely expected, drew sharp rebukes from civil rights advocates. "Facebook has policies but they under-enforce them," said Laura Murphy, an attorney who led a two-year long audit of Facebook concluding in 2020. "I worry about Facebook's capacity to understand the real world harm that Trump poses: Facebook has been too slow to act."

The Anti-Defamation League, the NAACP, Free Press and other groups also expressed concern Wednesday over Facebook's ability to prevent any future attacks on the democratic process, with Trump still repeating his false claim that he won the 2020 presidential election.

---

Climate Change May Usher in a New Era of Trade Wars

Countries are pursuing new solutions to try to mitigate climate change. More trade fights are likely to come hand in hand.

NYT by Ana Swanson

Jan. 25, 2023

WASHINGTON — Efforts to mitigate climate change are prompting countries across the world to embrace dramatically different policies toward industry and trade, bringing governments into conflict.

These new clashes over climate policy are straining international alliances and the global trading system, hinting at a future in which policies aimed at staving off environmental catastrophe could also result in more frequent cross-border trade wars.

In recent months, the United States and Europe have proposed or introduced subsidies, tariffs and other policies aimed at speeding the green energy transition. Proponents of the measures say governments must move aggressively to expand sources of cleaner energy and penalize the biggest emitters of planet-warming gases if they hope to avert a global climate disaster.

But critics say these policies often put foreign countries and companies at a disadvantage, as governments subsidize their own industries or charge new tariffs on foreign products. The policies depart from a decades-long status quo in trade, in which the United States and Europe often joined forces through the World Trade Organization to try to knock down trade barriers and encourage countries to treat one another’s products more equally to boost global commerce.

Now, new policies are pitting close allies against one another and widening fractures in an already fragile system of global trade governance, as countries try to contend with the existential challenge of climate change.

“The climate crisis requires economic transformation at a scale and speed humanity has never attempted in our 5,000 years of written history,” said Todd N. Tucker, the director of industrial policy and trade at the Roosevelt Institute, who is an advocate for some of the measures. “Unsurprisingly, a task of this magnitude will require a new policy tool kit.”

The current system of global trade funnels tens of millions of shipping containers stuffed with couches, clothing and car parts from foreign factories to the United States each year, often at astonishingly low prices. But the prices that consumers pay for these goods do not take into account the environmental harm generated by the far-off factories that make them, or by the container ships and cargo planes that carry them across the ocean.

A factory in Chengde, China. U.S. officials believe they must lessen a dangerous dependence on goods from China.Credit...Fred Dufour/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

American and European officials argue that more needs to be done to discourage trade in products made with more pollution or carbon emissions. And U.S. officials believe they must lessen a dangerous dependence on China in particular for the materials needed to power the green energy transition, like solar panels and electric vehicle batteries.

The Biden administration is putting in place generous subsidies to encourage the production of clean energy technology in the United States, such as tax credits for consumers who buy American-made clean cars and companies building new plants for solar and wind power equipment. Both the United States and Europe are introducing taxes and tariffs aimed at encouraging less environmentally harmful ways of producing goods.

Climate Forward  There’s an ongoing crisis — and tons of news. Our newsletter keeps you up to date.

Biden administration officials have expressed hopes that the climate transition could be a new opportunity for cooperation with allies. But so far, their initiatives seem to have mainly stirred controversy when the United States is already under attack for its response to recent trade rulings.

The administration has publicly flouted several decisions of World Trade Organization panels that ruled against the United States in trade disputes involving national security issues. In two separate announcements in December, the Office of the United States Trade Representative said it would not change its policies to abide by W.T.O. decisions.

But the biggest source of contention has been new tax credits for clean energy equipment and vehicles made in North America that were part of a sweeping climate and health policy bill that President Biden signed into law last year. European officials have called the measure a “job killer” and expressed fears they will lose out to the United States on new investments in batteries, green hydrogen, steel and other industries. In response, European Union officials began outlining their own plan this month to subsidize green energy industries — a move that critics fear will plunge the world into a costly and inefficient “subsidy war.”

The United States and European Union have been searching for changes that could be made to mollify both sides before the U.S. tax-credit rules are settled in March. But the Biden administration appears to have only limited ability to change some of the law’s provisions. Members of Congress say they intentionally worded the law to benefit American manufacturing.

Biden administration is putting in place subsidies to encourage the production of clean energy technology in the United States, such as tax credits for consumers who buy American-made clean cars.Credit...Brittany Greeson for The New York Times

European officials have suggested that they could bring a trade case at the World Trade Organization that might be a prelude to imposing tariffs on American products in retaliation.

Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner for trade, said that the European Union was committed to finding solutions but that negotiations needed to make progress or the European Union would face “even stronger calls” to respond.

“We need to follow the same rules of the game,” he said.

Anne Krueger, a former official at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, said the potential pain of American subsidies on Japan, South Korea and allies in Europe was “enormous.”

“When you discriminate in favor of American companies and against the rest of the world, you’re hurting yourself and hurting others at the same time,” said Ms. Krueger, now a senior fellow at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

But in a letter last week, a collection of prominent labor unions and environmental groups urged Mr. Biden to move forward with the plans without delays, saying outdated trade rules should not be used to undermine support for a new clean energy economy.

“It’s time to end this circular firing squad where countries threaten and, if successful, weaken or repeal one another’s climate measures through trade and investment agreements,” said Melinda St. Louis, the director of the Global Trade Watch for Public Citizen, one of the groups behind the letter.

Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner for trade, has pressed the United States to negotiate more on its climate-related subsidies for American manufacturing.Credit...Stephanie Lecocq/EPA, via Shutterstock

Other recent climate policies have also spurred controversy. In mid-December, the European Union took a major step toward a new climate-focused trade policy as it reached a preliminary agreement to impose a new carbon tariff on certain imports. The so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism would apply to products from all countries that failed to take strict actions to cut their greenhouse gas emissions.

The move is aimed at ensuring that European companies that must follow strict environmental regulations are not put at a disadvantage to competitors in countries where laxer environmental rules allow companies to produce and sell goods more cheaply. While European officials argue that their policy complies with global trade rules in a way that U.S. clean energy subsidies do not, it has still rankled countries like China and Turkey.

The Biden administration has also been trying to create an international group that would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum from countries with laxer environmental policies. In December, it sent the European Union a brief initial proposal for such a trade arrangement.

The idea still has a long way to go to be realized. But even as it would break new ground in addressing climate change, the approach may also end up aggravating allies like Canada, Mexico, Brazil and South Korea, which together provided more than half of America’s foreign steel last year.

Under the initial proposal, these countries would theoretically have to produce steel as cleanly as the United States and Europe, or face tariffs on their products.

A steel plant in Belgium. Under the initial proposal, countries would theoretically have to produce steel as cleanly as the United States and Europe, or face tariffs.Credit...Kevin Faingnaert for The New York Times

Proponents of new climate-focused trade measures say discriminating against foreign products, and goods made with greater carbon emissions, is exactly what governments need to build up clean energy industries and address climate change.

“You really do need to rethink some of the fundamentals of the system,” said Ilana Solomon, an independent trade consultant who previously worked with the Sierra Club.

Ms. Solomon and others have proposed a “climate peace clause,” under which governments would commit to refrain from using the World Trade Organization and other trade agreements to challenge one another’s climate policies for 10 years.

“The complete legitimacy of the global trading system has never been more in question,” she said.

In the United States, support appears to be growing among both Republicans and Democrats for more nationalist policies that would encourage domestic production and discourage imports of dirtier goods — but that would also most likely violate World Trade Organization rules.

Most Republicans do not support the idea of a national price on carbon. But they have shown more willingness to raise tariffs on foreign products that are made in environmentally damaging ways, which they see as a way to protect American jobs from foreign competition.

Robert E. Lighthizer, a chief trade negotiator for the Trump administration, said there was “great overlap” between Republicans and Democrats on the idea of using trade tools to discourage imports of polluting products from abroad.

“I’m coming at it to get more American employed and with higher wages,” he said. “You shouldn’t be able to get an economic advantage over some guy working in Detroit, trying to support his family, from pollution, by manufacturing overseas.”

---

UK energy regulator proposes late payment fine for Delta Gas and Power

Reuters

OSLO, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Britain's energy regulator Ofgem said on Thursday it planned to fine Delta Gas and Power 100,000 pounds ($123,870) for late payments into a scheme to support renewable energy development, arguing the company acted deliberately.

The company missed an Oct. 31 deadline to pay a Renewables Obligation (RO) bill totalling 530,809.20 pounds despite multiple reminders, a final order, and accruing late payment interest, Ofgem said.

Delta now has 21 days to respond to Ofgem's notice of intent, after which an official decision will made on whether to issue the penalty, the regulator said.Register for free to Reuters and know the full story

"Compliance and enforcement engagement is a resource and time intensive activity, and we take a very dim view of any repeat offenders," Ofgem said.

It is the second time energy supplier, which serves 1,690 business customers in Britain, has been subject to enforcement, after late payment for the 2020/21 period as well, the regulator said.

News round-up, Wednesday, January 25, 2023

---

Quote of the week…

Natural Gas Shortages Hit China…

“It’s a perfect winter storm for Xi,” said Willy Lam, a longtime analyst of Chinese politics who is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. “Nothing seems to be working, partly because nobody seems to have much cash.”

NYT

Leopard Tank

After weeks of indecision, Ukraine's allies have finally taken a stand. Several dozen Western battle tanks will be sent to help Kyiv's forces in the coming months. They will enable Ukraine to resist the onslaught of Russian troops and above all to regain the initiative in the coming spring, when the weather conditions will be more favorable for new mechanized maneuvers. The announcement was set to be made on Wednesday, January 25, by both the United States and Germany, who have managed to agree on a coalition, despite major initial differences.

Spiegel

TURKEY'S FUTURE UNCERTAIN AN ANNOUNCED DEJA VU FOR SWEDEN

After seven years of cooperation with independent organisations in Turkey, the Palme Centre is now leaving - following a decision by Sida - a country in deep crisis. Independent organisations in particular play an important role in Turkey in raising awareness of democracy and human rights among the population. But they are working against the wind. Turkey's state apparatus is crumbling. Helin Sahin of the Palme Centre writes in Dagens Arena.

Helin Salin, 22 July 2014

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

---

Natural Gas Shortages Hit China as Temperatures Plunge

The post Natural Gas Shortages Hit China as Temperatures Plunge appeared first on New York Times.

January 25, 2023

For many people across China, a shortage of natural gas and alarmingly cold temperatures are making a difficult winter unbearable. For Li Yongqiang, they mean freezing nights without heat.

“We dare not turn on the heat overnight — after using it for five or six hours, the gas stops again,” Mr. Li, a 45-year-old grocer, said by telephone from his home in northern China’s Hebei Province. “The gas shortage is really affecting our lives.”

The lack of natural gas, which is used widely across China to heat homes and businesses, has angered tens of millions of people and spilled over into caustic complaints on social media.

One person in Hebei Province wrote of waking early four nights a week because she was too cold to sleep despite two comforters on her bed. A viral video on China’s internet shows a high-rise apartment building in a different northern province, Shanxi, with the windows plastered with bright red posters of the sort often seen at Lunar New Year — except that these posters say “cold.”

Already this winter, hundreds of millions of people have caught Covid since Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, abandoned his “zero Covid” policy in early December. That policy had kept infections low but required costly precautions like mass testing — measures that exhausted the budgets of local governments. Many towns and cities now lack the money they need even to pay their own employees, much less to maintain adequate supplies of gas for homes.

The crunch, experts said, has exposed systemic weaknesses in China’s energy regulations and infrastructure, while showing the reach of the global market turmoil provoked last year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has long been a major supplier of natural gas to China and many regions, particularly Europe. When Russia halted exports to Europe last summer, nations bid up world prices as they stockpiled supplies from elsewhere. A surprisingly warm winter has since helped push gas prices lower in Europe, but the bitter cold is now pushing them even higher in China.

At the same time, China’s provincial and municipal governments have reduced customary subsidies for natural gas consumption that used to keep a lid on heating bills. The national government has responded by telling local governments to provide heat, without giving them money to pay for it. As a result, gas is effectively being rationed, with households receiving the minimum needed for cooking food but very little for heat.

“It’s a perfect winter storm for Xi,” said Willy Lam, a longtime analyst of Chinese politics who is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. “Nothing seems to be working, partly because nobody seems to have much cash.”

This is the third grass-roots energy crisis in just five years for Mr. Xi. His government abruptly banned coal-fired boilers across large areas of northern China in 2017 in favor of gas ones. It was a quick fix for air pollution, but residents soon found there was not enough gas for all the new boilers.

Then in 2021, the price of coal jumped higher than the regulated price at which utilities could sell electricity generated from coal. Reluctant to lose money, utilities temporarily closed power plants, contributing to a wave of blackouts.

Many in Europe worried last year how they would heat their homes this winter after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia reduced and then halted natural gas shipments to the continent.

But Europe has not just had an unusually warm winter. Gas companies there have raised prices, encouraging conservation, and governments have subsidized consumers to offset at least part of the extra cost. European companies also accumulated large stockpiles of extra gas last autumn. Worries have faded that families in Europe will not have enough natural gas to heat their homes this winter.

In China, the temperature has become unusually frigid. Over the weekend, numerous weather stations in northernmost China’s Heilongjiang Province reached the lowest temperatures they had ever recorded. Mohe City, the northernmost city in China, reached lows for three straight days below minus 50 degrees Celsius. China’s meteorology agency has issued nationwide warnings this week of very cold weather.

The government has taken notice of the gas shortages.

“Some localities and enterprises have not implemented measures to ensure the supply and price of energy for people’s livelihood,” Lian Weiliang, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, said at a news conference on Jan. 13.

He added that the national government would hold local officials responsible for supplying homes, but did not indicate that Beijing would provide any money to help them do so. China will also build more natural gas storage sites, he said, to try to avoid similar problems in the future.

China actually has enough natural gas to make it through the winter, said Yan Qin, a China energy specialist at Refinitiv, a data company in London. The problem is that pricing regulations and declining subsidies are preventing gas from reaching households in northern China when temperatures plunge.

Much of the world has shunned Russian energy during the war, but China has stepped up its purchases of natural gas from Russia. Imports from Russia of liquefied natural gas, which can be transported by ship, jumped 42.3 percent last year, as Chinese companies bought cargos that businesses in Japan and elsewhere were no longer willing to buy because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Much of that Russian gas was imported at very high prices. But Chinese regulations strictly limit the price at which municipal and township gas distributors are allowed to sell gas to households. This winter, the wholesale cost of gas is up to three times the price that distributors are allowed to charge residential customers, said Jenny Zhang, a natural gas expert at the Lantau Group, an energy and power consulting firm in Hong Kong that specializes in mainland China.

Distributors are allowed to pass along extra costs to industrial and business users of gas, but not to individuals. So when prices rise, the companies have a big incentive to cut off homes and sell mostly to industrial and commercial users.

The problem is particularly acute in populous Hebei Province near Beijing. Many local gas companies have been at least partly privatized in recent years.

“They don’t have deep pockets when the gas price is swinging,” Ms. Zhang said.

And local governments in places like Hebei are under severe financial strain.

Their main source of revenue, sales of land leases to developers, dried up last year as the pandemic costs skyrocketed. The acreage leased to developers plummeted 53 percent last year as the real estate sector ran into financial difficulties.

Hebei Province, which wraps around three sides of Beijing and has 74.5 million people, has fared worst of all. The national government has been particularly insistent over the past five years that Hebei homes and businesses switch to gas because air pollution from their use of coal quickly wafts into Beijing. Many residents, including Mr. Li, the grocer, no longer have coal or coal-burning stoves.

Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital, was then among the first cities to run low on money for Covid testing last autumn. It moved quickly to abandon testing late last year as soon as Beijing began signaling flexibility on the “zero Covid” policy, only to end up with an immediate wave of cases. Now temperatures in the mountainous province are falling far below freezing.

With revenue dwindling and costs rising, local governments in Hebei have little financial muscle to resume subsidizing gas quickly for their customers.

“If they would be able to subsidize,” Ms. Qin, the China energy specialist, said, “we would not have this shortage.”

---

Leopard 2 Tank

Ukraine's allies consent to crucial tank deliveries

After initially hesitating, Germany is expected to send a limited number of Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv, while Washington is formalizing the delivery of some 30 Abrams tanks.

Le Monde by Thomas Wieder (Berlin (Germany) correspondent), Piotr Smolar (Washington (United States) correspondent) and Cédric Pietralunga

Published on January 25, 2023

After weeks of indecision, Ukraine's allies have finally taken a stand. Several dozen Western battle tanks will be sent to help Kyiv's forces in the coming months. They will enable Ukraine to resist the onslaught of Russian troops and above all to regain the initiative in the coming spring, when the weather conditions will be more favorable for new mechanized maneuvers. The announcement was set to be made on Wednesday, January 25, by both the United States and Germany, who have managed to agree on a coalition, despite major initial differences.

According to several US media outlets and confirmed by European sources, Washington is set to officially announce the delivery of some 30 M1 Abrams tanks on Wednesday. This announcement would constitute a shift in the American position and a disavowal for the Pentagon. According to the Wall Street Journal, American president Joe Biden made this decision following a telephone conversation on January 17 with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The equipment would be acquired through a specific security assistance program for Ukraine, without drawing on current US military stocks.

For its part, Germany would deliver a limited number of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and, above all, authorize other countries that possess them to do the same, notably Poland. According to the news website Der Spiegel, which revealed the information late on Tuesday, this decision looked set to be officially announced on Wednesday by Scholz, during a speech to the Bundestag at midday. According to the German site, Berlin intends to send at least 14 Leopard 2 tanks from the Bundeswehr's stockpile, which has a total of 320 tanks, but only 200 of which are operational.

Until very recently, the United States had been reluctant to send heavy armored vehicles to Ukraine. Difficult to maneuver, complicated to maintain and fuel-hungry, the Abrams tanks could be a poisoned chalice for the Kyiv forces, explained Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's third in command, on his return from a trip to Ukraine on January 18. "The Abrams tank is no more difficult to use than a Leopard or a Leclerc, but its turbine consumes twice as much fuel as the diesel engines of its competitors, which requires much greater refueling logistics," confirmed Marc Chassillan, a French specialist in land armaments.

Pressure on the German Chancellor

Anxious to preserve the solidity of the Western bloc, the United States decided to take the step to unblock Germany's position. Concerned about its relations with Moscow, Germany had not wanted its Leopard tanks to be the only ones sent to Ukraine. This position had been clearly explained in recent weeks by Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Scholz, who was adamant despite intense pressure within his governing coalition, notably from the Greens and the Liberals (FDP). If the coalition failed, Moscow could have welcomed the first serious rift between the allies in a year, according to Western sources.

The pressure being put on Scholz by European leaders also played a role. For several weeks, Poland had been saying it was ready to deliver some of its army's Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but could not do so without authorization from their manufacturer, which has a contractual right of review over the re-export of their equipment. This conditionality, combined with Berlin's reluctance, exasperated Warsaw to no end. "The Germans are delaying, procrastinating and acting in a way that is difficult to understand," said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on January 24, explaining that he wanted to create a "coalition of countries supporting Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks."

Eager to defuse this rise in tension, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) declared on Tuesday morning that countries wishing to deliver Leopards to Kyiv could "start training" Ukrainians in how to use these tanks. At the same time, it was learned that Poland had officially asked Berlin to allow it to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. "The request will be examined as a matter of urgency," the German government said, clearly anxious to calm Warsaw's impatience, which had said the day before that it was ready to dispense with Berlin's authorization to send its tanks to Ukraine.

Support of the US Congress

On the American side, the pressure also intensified in recent days in Congress, particularly among senators, where support for the Ukrainian cause remains very strong. The Republican Lindsey Graham and the Democrat Richard Blumenthal spoke side by side on Tuesday on this subject. For Graham, the delivery of tanks to Kyiv "is recognition of the fact that our current objective is to stand by Ukraine until the last Russian soldier leaves its territory. For his part, Blumenthal, who led a bipartisan delegation to Kyiv a few days ago, stressed the importance of a very rapid delivery of this equipment to facilitate the Ukrainian counter-attack to the Russian border.

In addition to Poland, a number of European countries have expressed their willingness to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which estimates that its troops need about 300 tanks to repel the Russians. During a trip to Brussels on Tuesday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte explained that the Netherlands is considering buying 18 Leopard 2 main battle tanks, which it leases from Germany, to provide them to Ukraine. "We leased them (tanks), which means we can buy them and donate (to Ukraine)," he said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. "But there is no decision yet," he added.

According to local media, Norway is also ready to give up 8 of its 36 Leopards. Finland has also said it is available. Military experts estimate the number of Leopards currently in service in European armies at around 2,000, making them by far the largest contingent of tanks on the Old Continent.

The Elysée Palace did not wish to comment on the possibility of sending German and American tanks to Ukraine on Tuesday evening. Officially, France is studying the possibility of delivering some of the 222 Leclerc tanks in its army to Kyiv. But the military is reluctant to do so, believing that they already have too few to train properly. Ministerial sources also indicate that the maintenance of these technological monsters, manufactured by the French company Nexter, can be complicated for a country at war, especially if the number of tanks delivered is limited. The United Kingdom was not deterred by this factor. On January 14, London announced the upcoming delivery of 14 of its Challenger 2 heavy tanks to the Kyiv army.

'A race of speed'

The only certainty is that these decisions mark a new stage in the war in Ukraine. Having become stalled in the autumn, the front has seen new movements in recent weeks. The Russians say they have conquered the town of Soledar, in the east of the country, and are carrying out unconfirmed new attacks near Zaporizhzhia, further south. For their part, the Ukrainians are at work in the Kreminna region in the north of the country. Various sources also report troop movements on both sides of the front to prepare new offensives.

Above all, Ukrainian and Western intelligence services anticipate a new mobilization of conscripts in Russia, after the one announced on September 21, 2022, by Russian President Vladimir Putin. This could result in the arrival of tens of thousands of new Russian soldiers on the front line in the coming months. This reinforcement would be difficult for the Ukrainians to contain without reinforcing their equipment. "Ukraine and Russia are engaged in a race of speed, in armament for the former, in mobilization for the latter," explained a military source.

"The first one to be ready will have a chance to grab the advantage over the other."

---

Swedish Prime Minister Olofo Palme assassinated in Stockholm on Friday 28 February 1986.

Sweden-Turkey Spat Means Finland Might Take Unilateral Route

After a right-wing extremist burned a copy of the Koran in Stockholm over the weekend, Ankara is even less likely to approve Sweden's NATO bid anytime soon. Finland has said it might have to move ahead on its own.

Spiegel by Anna-Sophie Schneider

24.01.2023

A few dozen people gathered on Saturday not far from the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm. Far from being a normal protest, it was a targeted provocation. The notorious right-wing extremist politician Rasmus Paludan set fire to a copy of the Koran.

Paludan, head of the Islamophobic party Stram Kurs (Hard Line), has both Danish and Swedish citizenship. He poses as a defender of basic rights and claims that his protests are aimed at countering what he claims are Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s efforts at influencing freedom of speech.

His Saturday stunt triggered furious reactions from across the Muslim world. Turkey also immediately condemned the burning of the Koran, calling it an "anti-Islam act, which targets Muslims and insults our sacred values." It was, in short, immediately clear that Paludan’s "protest" would have far-reaching political consequences.

On Monday, Erdoğan went a step further, saying that the Swedish government cannot count on Turkish support for its efforts to join NATO. "It is clear that those who allowed such vileness to take place in front of our embassy can no longer expect any charity from us regarding their NATO membership application," Erdoğan said.

Relations between Ankara and Stockholm had already been tense. Turkey has long stood in the way of efforts by Sweden and Finland to join the trans-Atlantic military alliance. Both countries decided in May 2022, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to abandon their neutrality and join NATO.

Twenty-eight of 30 member states have since rubberstamped the two countries’ applications, with Hungary saying that it would be granting its approval next month. That leaves Turkey as the only NATO member left to give its consent. But despite numerous talks, Ankara hasn’t budged in months.

Turkey’s leaders accuse the Swedish government of supporting terrorist organizations, a reference to the Kurdish militia group YPG, which Ankara sees as an arm of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is banned in Turkey. The PKK is also considered to be a terrorist organization inside the European Union, but Brussels has declined expand that classification to the YPG. The NATO membership applications from Finland and Sweden handed Erdoğan a perfect opportunity to bring the issue back into the spotlight.

In addition, the Turkish president accuses Sweden of being a sanctuary for terrorists and is demanding that Stockholm extradite several members of the PKK along with opposition and Kurdish activists. A memorandum between Sweden, Finland and Turkey last summer was supposed eliminate the differences of opinion that exist between the countries. But the sense of relief triggered by the diplomatic triumph proved short-lived.

The document is formulated in such a way that it is open to a wide variety of interpretations. And Turkish leaders are still unhappy with how the Nordic countries have construed it. Ankara has sent careful signals that It would be open to Finland initially joining NATO without Sweden, but Helsinki was long opposed to doing so.

On Tuesday, however, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that the time had come for his country to consider moving ahead without Sweden. He also told Reuters that talks needed to be put on hold for a time, following the events of the weekend. "A time-out is needed before we return to the three-way talks and see where we are when the dust has settled after the current situation," Haavisto told Reuters in a phone interview.

First Rapprochement, then Alienation

Given Turkey’s comments thus far, however, it doesn’t look as though a solution to the impasse will present itself anytime soon.

For Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the NATO question has become a true test. The conservative politician has only been in office since mid-October. But even before he took office, Social Democratic governments before him had made concessions to Erdoğan, such as authorizing weapons exports to Turkey for the first time in 2019. Kristersson has sought to expand this delicate rapprochement. A constitutional amendment aimed at strengthening Sweden’s anti-terrorism laws was received positively in the Turkish press.

Indeed, Kristersson’s first trip abroad, taken in November, was to Ankara – a strong signal to Erdoğan. But that trip saw an event that in hindsight could be seen as the trigger of a new escalation in the NATO confrontation. The escalation that culminated on Saturday in the burning of the Koran.

During Kristersson’s trip, Erdoğan demanded yet again that a number of alleged terrorists be extradited. Specifically, he mentioned by name the former journalist Bülent Keneş. Erdoğan accuses Keneş of having taken part in the 2016 putsch attempt in Turkey. The Swedish prime minister made it clear that political leaders have no say on extraditions and that all such decisions are made by courts of law. And not long later, the highest court in Stockholm rejected Keneş' extradition.

It was a bitter defeat for Erdoğan, to which he responded with yet more demands. He insisted on the extradition of 130 people. Kristersson, who had already become the target of criticism for his attempts at rapprochement with Ankara, saw the demand as an afront. He said the Turkish request could not be granted.

The rejection from Stockholm was accompanied by increasingly provocative protests in Sweden against Turkey. On January 13, Kurdish activists hung an Erdoğan doll upside down in Stockholm and lit it on fire. Ankara responded by summoning the Swedish ambassador.

Following the burning of the Koran, the diplomat was once again summoned – for the second time in just a few days. But both the burning of the Koran and the burning of the Erdoğan doll are covered by Sweden’s freedom-of-expression rights. The legal consequences being demanded by Ankara are thus precluded.

Over the weekend, Kristersson tried to calm the tensions. Freedom of expression is a fundamental element of democracy, he wrote on Twitter, but "burning books that are holy to many is a deeply disrespectful act." He extended his sympathies to all Muslims who were offended by the stunt.

It didn’t work. After the burning of the Koran on Saturday in Stockholm, Swedish flags went up in flames on Sunday in front of the Swedish Consulate in Istanbul. Protesters called for a boycott of Swedish products and a meeting between the defense ministers of Sweden and Turkey was cancelled.

No Hope Until After the Election

Erdoğan will likely emerge as the greatest beneficiary of the uproar. The Turkish president is up for re-election in May, and the anti- Erdoğan protests in Sweden could very well give him a boost. Erdoğan has consistently benefited from anti-Western posturing in past elections, and this time around, the opposition isn’t likely to contradict him given Paludan’s antics.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the country’s largest opposition party, the CHP, blasted the burning of the Koran on Twitter, writing: "I condemn this fascism, which is the pinnacle of hate crime."

In short, it is difficult to imagine Turkey giving the green light to Sweden’s NATO membership aspirations before the presidential election.

"What happens after that depends to a certain extent on who wins," Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at the University of Stockholm, told the news agency AFP. If Erdoğan remains in power, he said, Ankara’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO application may not happen for several years. The only thing that might speed things up, Levin believes, is if other NATO members make concessions to Turkey.

News round-up, Tuesday, January 24, 2023

---

Quote of the week…

Kadri Simson, EU Commissioner for Energy, said: "The unprecedented energy crisis we are facing shows that we need to adapt the shape of the electricity market for the future to deliver the benefits of clean and affordable energy to all. I look forward to contributions from a wide range of stakeholders, which will help guide our legislative proposal this year.

ABC.es

Natural gas is the new “Russian winter” as a war element…

Norway does not consider an auxiliary international economic aid to lower the price of natural gas, as stated by the first Norwegian, Jonas Gahr Støre, on his official visit to Sweden on Sunday, August 28, 2022.

Emergency tax and energy-saving measures

Germany announces emergency measures to try to regain energy sovereignty

Today, the European political leadership speaks openly of an intervention in the electricity industry market, this interference refers to setting a ceiling on the price of the final service (Price-cap) of electricity. Undoubtedly, this measure will have an immediate contagion effect on other regions of the world, due to an economic recession.

However, current electricity prices are derived from a strategically restricted supply of natural gas due to a war conflict, which has increased the cost of producing electricity to current levels. In short, the increase in the price of electricity is beyond the responsibility of the electricity sector still less of the political authority.

Germán & Co

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

Elías, Mario Vargas LLosa's intelligent virtual assistant

Artificial intelligence, Vargas Llosa and the virtue of the invisible

Logroño, La Rioja

Mario Vargas Llosa, the Nobel laureate, said the other day, at the inaugural event of the IX Jornadas organised by Futuro en español, that the writer must "polish the invisible prose until writing merges with reality". We could also recall here the maestro Paco de Lucia, who did win the Prince of Asturias, although he never won a Nobel Prize, simply because the Swedish Academy gets the categories wrong, leaving art aside. The maestro said that since he was a child he practised eight hours a day to master a technique with the ultimate idea of forgetting about it so that it would not limit his ability to express himself. Mastering a tool so as not to focus on it, so that it merges with his dialogue.

In the panel on artificial intelligence in Spanish

They might as well have both talked about technology: melting it down to make it invisible, giving software the value of the tool it should be, instead of raising it as the keystone and overvalued cornerstone of any current agreement on progress. We already lived through this bubble with the advent of computers, desktops, laptops, dotcoms, mobile phones and certainly before all this, according to chronicles of times past. And now it is the same circus with artificial intelligence (AI). It was born 70 or almost 100 years ago, depending on whether we assign its inception to Turing, McCarthy, IBM or any other personality.

The writer must polish the invisible prose until writing merges with reality.

Mario Vargas Llosa

As in some cases of collective progress, polygenesis over a period of time on a concept that evolves makes it impossible to give a single name and surname, no matter how much pressure is exerted by interested sectors. And in all these years we have seen a parade of concepts and techniques under this umbrella: neural networks, machine learning, learning analytics, heuristics, Bayesian networks, expert systems, cognitive modelling and a long etcetera.

On the panel on the future of education

Recently many people have been talking about AI in education and I keep thinking that, for a change, we teachers are too late. AI has been around for decades and has been applied in a very worthy way to estimate the future, to predict the most varied things: the weather, the stock market, migrations, the evolution of diseases or viruses, maintenance needs, troop movements and even chess games. Talking to my colleagues in education and research, at conferences and various meetings, we realise that teachers want to incorporate these tools, but they are afraid of the complexity of these tools. Beyond moral, ethical and legal considerations, which there are, the teacher finds any AI software complicated to learn, to configure and even to use on the ground. And this is where the bubble arises.

Mastering a tool so as not to focus on it, so that it merges with its dialogue.

Paco de Lucía

It seems that an interested sector complicates the product unnecessarily with the aim of over-pricing it, in the manner of a recalcitrant consultant, pointing out how necessary complicated and costly consultancy work is. A sector that could focus its efforts on improving and providing a service that is affordable and already translated for the average person. Advanced users will always exist, but that 20% of the market, if we listen to Pareto, should not govern the interaction with the other 80%. Just as it is not necessary to be a master mechanic to drive a car, it is not essential to learn cryptic terms to be a worthy user of artificial intelligence applied to any field, including education. The secret lies in improving the experience of teachers and students, simplifying and adapting services to their needs, and making all the technological paraphernalia transparent, like the prose of the Nobel Prize winner or the technique of the virtuoso.

---

How commodity traders in Switzerland are benefiting from the war

According to the NGO Public Eye, the profits of Swiss fossil and agricultural commodity traders have soared since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Le Monde by Serge Enderlin (Geneva (Switzerland) correspondent)

Published on January 24, 2023

War profiteer? The trading company Trafigura has made $7 billion (€ 6.45 billion) in profits in its 2022 fiscal year, twice as much as its previous record, in 2021. Covid-19, the war in Ukraine: The more the planet suffers, the more the traders cash in.

This is a paradox that does not trouble the Australian Jeremy Weir. Since 2014, he has been the boss of the company which is one of the principal brokers and charterers of black gold on the planet. Its trading activities are based in Geneva. "We have once again masterfully managed extreme market volatility across a wide range of commodities, and delivered outstanding results regardless of market conditions," he said.

The Swiss NGO Public Eye employed a less managerial language. On Thursday, January 19, it published a report on the ultra-lucrative commodities trading business in Switzerland. "While millions of people are under threat from acute food and supply insecurity caused by rising food and energy prices, commodity traders are booking historic record profits by taking advantage of market disruptions," the NGO said.

Flow growth

Just like its competitor Trafigura, the Vitol Group, the world's leading oil trading company, has also already broken through its own ceiling, with $4.5 billion in profits for the first six months of 2022, compared with $4.2 billion for the twelve months of 2021. The Gunvor company, for its part, has announced a fourfold increase in profits for the first half of 2022 compared with the first half of 2021.

It was co-founded by the Russian oligarch Gennadi Timchenko, a close associate of Vladimir Putin who is on all the Western sanctions lists. For a long time, the high society of Geneva has benefited from his generosity through Neva, his wife's philanthropic foundation. The man officially sold his shares in Gunvor to his Swedish business partner, Torbjörn Törnqvist, shortly after Russia annexed Crimea in the spring of 2014.

One commodities giant, however, outpaced  all others – Glencore (oil, gas, coal, minerals, metals, etc.). According to the Financial Times, the group based in Baar, in the mild tax climate of the Alemannic micro-canton Zug (central Switzerland), is "one of the biggest winners from the turmoil on the commodities markets unleashed by the war in Ukraine." It saw its profits grow by 846% to $12 billion in the first half of 2022 year-on-year.

Contrary to assumptions made at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, all indications are that commodity flows have not dried up, quite the opposite. The exponential increase in profits made by trading players would even tend to prove that this growth is not only due to the rise in prices. Clearly, the war has also led to an increase in the volumes traded in Switzerland.

A legal framework considered lax

Whether they "deal" in energy commodities (oil, gas, coal) or agricultural commodities (grain), none of the international operators based in the Swiss Confederation publishes precise figures that would provide details of their operations. "Because of that opacity, which is nothing other than a political choice," Public Eye has established its own estimates of the significance of the traders in the Swiss economy

In roughly a decade, the Alpine country has become the world's largest commodities trading center, overtaking London, without the goods ever physically passing through the shores of Lake Geneva. At least half of the world's grain trade takes place there, as does 40% of the coal trade, while one out of every three barrels of oil on the planet is sold in Geneva.

In roughly a decade, Switzerland has become the world's largest commodities trading center

The sector alone now accounts for 8% of Switzerland's gross domestic product, on par with the financial center, but ahead of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries. The financial center has been regulated since 2007 by a market surveillance authority, after Switzerland had gone through difficult years under double pressure from Europe and, above all, the United States. That, however, is still not the case for the trading sector, which benefits from a legal framework that is considered lax.

That Swiss exception has so far not given rise to any political will to clarify the situation. Only the Zurich Green MP Balthasar Glättli has taken up the issue. In September 2022, he submitted an initiative to the National Parliament in Bern, calling for "significant windfall profits resulting from the war against Ukraine" to be subject to a higher federal tax rate. But in Switzerland, most taxes are levied at the cantonal level, resulting in constant tax underbidding between cantons to attract international players.

France's elusive promise: Cutting nuclear power to 50% of electricity production

At first, France planned to cut the share of nuclear power in its electricity production to 50% by 2025. Then, 2035. Now, the target looks set to be scrapped altogether.

Le Monde by Adrien Pécout

Published on January 24, 2023

The French state's inconsistencies on nuclear power can be expressed in a single percentage, originally one of the 60 electoral commitments made by candidate François Hollande ahead of the 2012 presidential election. That promise was to reduce the share of nuclear power in France's electricity production to 50%. But in 2021, the figure stood at 69%, down from 75% a decade ago. Ahead of the 2012 legislative elections, this promise had also helped seal the victorious alliance between the Socialists and the Greens. The promise became law in 2015, under Hollande's presidency, with a "horizon" set for 2025. Four years later, under President Emmanuel Macron, the "horizon" was postponed to 2035.

"This measure primarily has a declarative value," explained a person familiar with the inner workings of Hollande's Socialist government. "The horizon, when you approach it, moves further away." In a speech on the environment in November 2018, Macron stated that this percentage had been "brandished as a political totem", but that after a "pragmatic expertise", it had turned out to be "unattainable" by 2025.

Pushed back by a decade, the "totem" finds itself, even today, threatened to the point of risking obliteration. Its critics are already interpreting this as a sign that nuclear energy is back in favor. Which does not necessarily mean that the goal of reducing the share of nuclear power in the electricity mix out of reach. That will also depend on the State's capacity to speed up the production of wind and solar energy.

From ceiling to floor

The question is back on the table sooner than expected. On Tuesday, January 24, the Sénat will vote on a bill aiming to simplify administrative procedures for the construction of new nuclear reactors. Amended by the right-wing Sénat majority, the bill now plans to set a new energy policy. Rather than cutting nuclear power down to half of all electricity production, the new target is to "maintain the share of nuclear power in electricity production at more than 50% until 2050". The ceiling would turn into a floor.

Every morning, a selection of articles from Le Monde In English straight to your inbox

According to Energy Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, such a decision would be premature. But the government itself proposed to remove the 50% target. Their amendment, which was rejected by the Sénat, sought to include a vaguer goal, defined as "diversifying the electricity mix, aiming for a better balance between nuclear and renewable energies". Some observers believe the proposal was primarily a political play before sending the bill to the Assemblée Nationale, as way of pleasing pro-nuclear MPs, particularly on the right.

When contacted, the minister's entourage justified its "objective of diversifying the energy mix without setting a reference figure" by saying it was better to wait for the conclusions of public debates on energy consumption and the construction of new nuclear reactors. In the second half of the year, Parliament will discuss the "programming law" on energy and climate which sets policy goals over a timespan of several years. The 2019 energy-climate law had set a deadline on July 1 for this new programming law, but the pension reform will take up most of the legislative agenda until then.

Promised shutdowns

"The share of renewable energies will increase" over the decade, according to the same government source, insofar as the inauguration of any new nuclear reactor is envisaged at the earliest for 2035 – apart from the eternally pending EPR reactor in Flamanville, Normandy, where construction began in 2007, but which will only be functional in 2024 at the earliest.

A decade ago, the mood was more one of promised closures. In November 2011, eight months after the Japanese disaster at Fukushima, the governing agreement signed by the Socialists and the Greens targeted a "progressive" closure of 24 out of the 58 working reactors. The first ones to shut down, with "immediate" effect, were meant to be the two units at Fessenheim plant along the German border. They eventually were decommissioned – in February and June 2020, well after Hollande left office.

His successor Macron initially followed in the same direction. In 2018, he announced the definitive shutdown of 14 reactors by 2035, including those at Fessenheim. These are 14 closures are written into law, as they were included in the pluriannual energy programming law of April 2020.

A disoriented industry

In the meantime, the war in Ukraine and soaring energy costs caused the matter to be reconsidered. Nearing the end of his first term, Macron announced in February 2022 that France would relaunch its nuclear industry, citing the need for low-carbon electricity.

Not only did he announce the building of six to 14 new reactors – he also opened the door for an extension of the lifetimes of all existing units beyond 50 years, contradicting his previous announcements on closures. "I hope that no nuclear reactor in a state of production will be closed in the future, given the very significant increase in our electricity needs, unless, of course, safety reasons were to prevail," he said.

"As it stands, the percentage is vague and unquantified, everyone can interpret it as they wish"– Boris Solier, lecturer at the University of Montpellier

The contradictory promises of the past decade disoriented the industry, which was more readied for closing reactors than building them, according to Jean-Bernard Lévy, who was head of the state-owned electricity company EDF until August 2022. "We were told: 'your nuclear fleet will decline,'" he said.

The frequent revisions of the 50% target "reflect the strategic hesitations of the government regarding nuclear energy," said Bruno Villalba, a professor of political science at AgroParisTech. "When Hollande gave the environmentalists a pass with Fessenheim, he did not, for all that, program a series of closures."

During his first presidential campaign, in 2017, candidate Macron took up the promise to reduce the share of nuclear energy by 2025. The energy chapter of his policy platform had been co-ordinated by former Socialist MP Arnaud Leroy, who was subsequently appointed to head ADEME, the government agency for environmental transition. The goal was "difficult" to fulfill, admitted then environment minister Nicolas Hulot as early as November 2017. "I prefer realism and sincerity to mystification," he added.

Lack of precision

The 50% figure always lacked precision, for the simple reason that the energy legislation does not define the goal with an absolute value. It was born from the need to reach a compromise between the Greens, who wanted to abandon nuclear power, and the Socialists, who wanted to preserve the industry. It was a political target more than anything – "A goal or massive and structural reduction for the first time since the installation of the nuclear facilities [in the 1970s], without new construction," said Green MEP David Cormand, who was involved in crafting the agreement with the Socialists.

Another key goal, from the outset, was to reduce dependence on nuclear energy in the event of problems (such as the corrosion observed in recent months in some reactors) and to encourage investment in renewable energy.

"As it stands, the percentage is vague and unquantified, everyone can interpret it as they wish," according to Boris Solier, lecturer at the University of Montpellier, a specialist in energy economics. And for good reason: The more electricity production increases, the heavier the 50% benchmark would weigh in absolute terms.

But since 2015, the law on the energy transition for green growth sets a better-defined ceiling: It limits the maximum power of the French nuclear fleet at 63.2 gigawatts (GW). This regulation was meant to force EDF to shut down the Fessenheim power plant in exchange for the launch of the Flamanville EPR reactor, which is still pending. "A law on energy transition that really followed the goal of reducing the share of nuclear power should have included a gradual decrease in this ceiling. That solution was not chosen," said former environment minister and Green politician Cécile Duflot.

Coupled to wind and solar energy

That ceiling is now likely to be removed by another amendment from the Sénat's right-wing majority. Some experts say that would be a non-issue, because the ceiling seemed compatible with all models for 2050, alongside a massive deployment of wind and solar power, according to the analyses from grid operator RTE.

Assuming that some of France's nuclear reactors – 37 years old on average – are still functioning by then (24 GW of the current 61 GW, with the oldest reactors due to close), and if 14 new reactors are built along with several small modular SMRs (a total of around 27 GW), the combined power of the nuclear plants would still be lower than the 63.2 GW limit currently written in law..

"Even with 14 new reactors, the share of nuclear power will not exceed 50% by 2050," Minister Pannier-Runacher told the Sénat. But for 2035, that remains to be seen.

---

Is Venezuela back on its feet?

by Elias Ferrer, 20 January 2023

The oil market determines the fortunes of Venezuela’s leaders.

L.C.Nøttaasen

As I roamed around Caracas in November, I could not help but become frustrated by the traffic jams. Just two years ago, drivers could hardly get any petrol. In 2020, unable to produce its own fuel, the oil-rich country had to wait for Iranian tankers to bring the refined product. But in shops across the city, full shelves contrasted with the infamous images from just a few years ago. Prices were often displayed in US dollars rather than the national currency, bolivars. Malls, supermarkets and restaurants were full of customers. I was puzzled, as many could afford $18 for a burger and chips at Puerkos, a popular fast-food chain.

During this stay, I witnessed the ‘clásico’: Venezuela’s main baseball rivals, Leones and Magallanes, played before a packed stadium, with energetic fans drinking pints of beer and splashing them on each other. My local friends said it was nice to see the seats fill up again. In the depths of the crisis that wreaked havoc on the country, few could afford to enjoy themselves at stadiums.

The recovery was evidently unequal. On the wealthier east side of Caracas, where Ferrari opened a new franchise last year, locals were building new fancy homes and offices. The international front was also changing. As I landed in Venezuela, the country’s ruler Nicolás Maduro attended COP27 and had a short exchange with Emmanuel Macron. Between handshakes and smiles, the French president offered to call his counterpart after the meeting.

The new normal

Since economic troubles started around 2014, between 5 and 7 million people have left the country, with many sending much needed remittances back home. US dollars have become widespread, slowing inflation as parts of the economy stay unaffected from the local currency’s downturn. Oil production has timidly picked up and, crucially, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine the US and Europe are once more interested in buying it, after having banned Venezuelan oil as part of a broader an economic blockade. The Venezuelan state has also sought to increase domestic production and, most importantly, encourage other exports.

In this vein, mining has become an important source of export revenue. The country’s soil is abundant in gold, cobalt, iron, bauxite and diamonds but, with the discovery of oil in the early 20th century, swathes of Venezuela’s interior were depopulated and much of its vast mineral wealth remained untapped. While some foreign corporations were interested in exploiting these minerals, their worth was small in comparison to the revenues brought in by black gold. I spoke to a government official from Ciudad Guayana, in the mineral-rich Orinoco basin. He told me that gold is flown from there to a Congolese mining firm, which manufactures ingots, to pay for imports in lieu of cash. Turkish firms have also been involved in processing Venezuelan gold ore. Still, given that this trade is intended to counter sanctions, it is hard to know the details. Journalists from the Wall Street Journal, the Times and the BBC have offered numbers, but they are not able to know with certainty.

Maduro’s socialist-styled government has given concessions to local and foreign businesses. Many price controls have been removed, and state-owned firms are now issuing a minority of shares in the national stock market. Special economic zones are being prepared, for instance in Tortuga Island, in a bet to bring back international tourism. In the year up to August 2022, the bolivar saw a period of surprising stability. Most investors, however, are wary of the risks, and have a bad memory of expropriations, bond defaults and hyperinflation. Even if the economy is recovering, it is still far from what it once was. At $82.15bn, Venezuela’s GDP is still 62% lower than in 2014, when the crisis began, according to IMF figures. It is true that most Latin American economies are yet to return to the abundance afforded by the commodities boom between 2000 and 2014, but no other has fallen so deep as Venezuela’s.

The official inflation rate for the first 11 months of 2022 is 145%. In relative terms, this is good news to those used to six-digit figures. According to the official rate, on January 1st, 2022 $1 was equivalent to Bs4.60, but by December 1st it had risen to 11.25 bolivars. I paid $5 for a traditional arepa plus a drink. At the start of the year, that would have been 23 bolivars. Yet as I sat down at the table, the price had become 56.25 bolivars. Many workers, especially in the public sector — including teachers and doctors — are paid in bolivars, and rapidly lose their spending power by the day. Meanwhile, business owners or the self-employed can demand to charge only in dollars, and can therefore afford to have a more stable lifestyle.

Products from global conglomerates, from Mars Incorporated and Nestlé to Mexico’s Bimbo fill the shelves to the brim in supermarkets and bodegones — local shops that flourished by selling foreign items during shortages in the economic crisis. Still, prices are only affordable to those with dollar incomes. The poor majority relies on a monthly subsidised food package and buying from street markets where they can procure fruit, vegetables and the staple corn flour. Prices are abysmally different for different people; I bought two kilograms of fresh produce for the equivalent of $1.5. This was cheap for me, and for Venezuelans who earn in dollars. However, the monthly minimum wage is Bs130, which at the end of November equalled $11.56.

All-in on oil

The political fortunes of Venezuela’s presidents have historically depended on the oil market. Hugo Chávez, whose presidency lasted from 1999 to 2013, rode the commodities boom. Under his presidency, Venezuela’s GDP quadrupled. In 1998, the year Chávez won his first election, GDP stood at $91.8bn. In 2012, the year before he passed away in office, he saw the figure reach its highest peak at $372.75bn. His project, the ‘Bolivarian revolution’, brought education, health and housing to many of the country’s poor, alongside other subsidised services. He also offered poorer countries and communities fuel at discounted prices.

In 2013, the ‘OPEC basket price’ for oil — Venezuela is a member of the club — stood at $109. Prices only fell from there, and sharply. As Chávez died, then-vice president Maduro stepped in, taking the full hit. In 2016 the same benchmark price was at $40.76. The regime that could pay for everything it wanted was now cash-strapped. At first, the response was to print bolivars to pay the exorbitant bill, but that became the catalyst for the extreme hyperinflation that has made Venezuela infamous.

From 2015, US-led international sanctions started hitting Venezuela’s economy. Individuals were targeted, but the country as a whole was effectively blockaded. Among other measures, the government was cut off from debt and equity markets, Venezuelan oil was banned in the US and overseas assets were frozen. Western banks withheld reserves and refused to process payments. Citgo, a sizable subsidiary of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company (PDVSA) in the US, was seized and many of its assets liquidated. In a move that later proved ironic, Texan refineries were repurposed to process Russian oil, as it was of a similar grade. The sanctions and low oil prices not only hit government coffers, but also PDVSA’s capacity to sustain its operations. For a few years, having the world’s largest known oil reserves meant little.

In 2019, the economy was in full collapse with little export income, hyperinflation and asphyxiating sanctions. The Trump administration recognised the then-head of the national assembly and opposition figure Juan Guaidó as interim president until free and fair elections were held. A coalition of Western and Latin American countries followed suit in recognising Guaidó and sanctioning Venezuela. Maduro was no longer ‘president’ but an illegitimate ‘usurper’. Isolated and unpopular, it seemed like Maduro’s days were numbered.

Oil is back on the table

Now, Maduro’s status as a pariah seems to be ending. Most of the Latin American governments that once called for his removal have been ousted by their electorates. Brazil, Colombia and Argentina are the most notable cases. Though not allies of Maduro, they are reopening trade and embassies. This year, Macron also publicly called for the US to allow for Venezuelan fossil fuels in Europe. As recently as 2019, France had recognised Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president.

This year, the Biden administration has sent at least two delegations to negotiate with Maduro, who is once again ‘president’ in Western discourse. He was not invited to this year’s Conference of the Americas, though Guaidó was also shunned. When asked about the absence of Venezuela’s ‘interim president’ in a press conference, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked, ‘Who?’ and failed to acknowledge him.

The Biden administration is toeing a thin line. On one hand, it cannot simply turn around and declare Maduro a friend now that Russia is the official enemy. On the other, Texan refiners and European consumers need Venezuela’s oil and gas fields running. As of today, forcing regime change seems unlikely. By lifting some sanctions, the US has brought chavistas and the opposition together at the negotiating table in Mexico. The aim is to bring about ‘free and fair’ elections; the US could judge them not to be adequate and reimpose sanctions. So far, the Biden administration has opened up on the energy front. Chevron has been given permission to pump Venezuelan oil, and European firms Repsol and Eni to ship it home to repay debt. Additionally, frozen assets worth $3bn in Western banks have been freed up to be invested in health, education and infrastructure under the UN’s supervision.

Brussels launches public consultation on decoupling gas prices from electricity tariffs

---

Background information

Natural gas is the new “Russian winter” as a war element…

by Germán & Co

Norway does not consider an auxiliary international economic aid to lower the price of natural gas, as stated by the first Norwegian, Jonas Gahr Støre, on his official visit to Sweden on Sunday, August 28, 2022.

Emergency tax and energy-saving measures

Germany announces emergency measures to try to regain energy sovereignty

Today, the European political leadership speaks openly of an intervention in the electricity industry market, this interference refers to setting a ceiling on the price of the final service (Price-cap) of electricity. Undoubtedly, this measure will have an immediate contagion effect on other regions of the world, due to an economic recession.

However, current electricity prices are derived from a strategically restricted supply of natural gas due to a war conflict, which has increased the cost of producing electricity to current levels. In short, the increase in the price of electricity is beyond the responsibility of the electricity sector still less of the political authority.

In a spokesman for the Kremlin last week where Europe was threatened about how difficult it would be to face the coming winter. Yes, we conceive this statement only by analyzing the present, we are understanding the message very badly. Why?? The underlying message was to remind European politicians of the importance of the Russian (European) winter when bogged down and then defeating the Nazi invading forces as one of the fundamental milestones to end World War II. Natural gas is the new “Russian winter” as a war element. Therefore, this is the reason why the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) issued an almost instantaneous statement referring to this issue: European Winter 2022.

(Kremlin, gas supplies hampered only by EU sanctions – Politics – Nuova Europa – ANSA.it)

(NATO – Opinion: Statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the International Crimea Platform, Aug 23, 2022)

What is the big question in this situation? The answer is its elongation in time. Why? This is not a short-lived war-like six-day war (June 5-10, 1967). It is understood that this was the primary idea on the part of the invading forces, a huge miscalculation. We are facing a conflict, whose strategy is worn and torn, therefore, without light at the end of the tunnel for a long time. Regarding the uncertainty of the dispute, its duration, and destination, European politicians have been categorical and have riveted and riveted on this topic to such a frequency that it is difficult for the population to forget the reality to which it is subjected.

The European Union (EU) has announced urgent measures to curb this unsustainable inflationary situation that can easily lead to a systematic crisis. As a result of the current financial situation, a decrease in the value of housing in certain economies of the continent is expected of up to 20%, in the next 12 months, mainly due to lack of demand and inability to pay mortgage loans, a fact that has been aggravated by the increase in the base interest rate by one of the central banks in the area. An economic measure that is being questioned because it is counterproductive in the current situation, as a result of the fact that the current inflationary process does not correspond to overconsumption in the private sector or to excessive spending on the part of the treasury, variants that usually lead to speculative processes. On the contrary, the bullish trigger is due to the lack of supply of basic raw materials initiated during the pandemic and now aggravated by the war.

There is an urgent need in the political sphere to adopt measures to overcome this uncertain and overwhelming environment for the population (cost of living) and costs for industry in all diversities. The electricity sector, a cardinal component in the production chain and a fundamental variable in the economic sphere, is undoubtedly the most affected by the historic increase in fuel prices.

If you keep in mind the intransigent position of Russia and the brand-new statements of the Norwegian Prime Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, on an official visit to Sweden last Sunday, where the Norwegian Prime Minister affirms that his country does not contemplate international economic aid measures as a mechanism to reduce the price of natural gas. It’s a clear message to the Government authorities of non-fossil energy-producing countries that must find solutions at their own disposal so as not to further deepen the crisis and avoid the pollution effect on other sectors of the economy.

Today the main headline of the newspaper El País of Spain reports on the fiscal measure that will be coming into force from October until the end of the year with the concern of stopping the inflationary process, the president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez announces the substantial reduction of the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 25 to 5% to the price of natural gas in line with the provisions assumed in this matter for Germany and France. In contrary to Spain, the latter two included a strong energy-saving component in their packages. The appropriate measures are perhaps, insufficient in view of the magnitude of the current economic crisis. I understand that the fiscal provision adopted today by the Spanish government should have a broader significance that includes the entire chain of the electricity industry to have some reasonable expectations to navigate the current storm.

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

Henry Kissinger Warns That AI Will Fundamentally Alter Human Consciousness

“I’ve become convinced that AI and the surrounding disciplines are going to bring a change in human consciousness, like the Enlightenment.”

Gizmodo.com

---

Spain has already presented its proposal, harshly criticised by the electricity and wind energy sectors.

Written in Spanish by Javier González Navarro

ABC.es

Translation by Germán & Co

Madrid

23/01/2023

The European Commission today launched the announced public consultation on the reform of the European Union's electricity market. Spain submitted its proposals for this last week.

The consultation will run until 13 February and will focus on four main areas: reducing the dependence of electricity bills on the short-term price of fossil fuels - especially gas - and boosting the deployment of renewables; improving the functioning of the market to ensure security of supply and making full use of alternatives to gas, such as storage and demand response; strengthening consumer protection and empowerment; and improving market transparency, monitoring and integrity, a European Commission spokesperson explained yesterday.

Electricity companies criticise the energy reform proposed by the government because it generates "regulatory uncertainties".

The Spanish and European wind power industry cries out against the market reform proposed by Teresa Ribera

Kadri Simson, EU Commissioner for Energy, said: "The unprecedented energy crisis we are facing shows that we need to adapt the shape of the electricity market for the future to deliver the benefits of clean and affordable energy to all. I look forward to contributions from a wide range of stakeholders, which will help guide our legislative proposal this year.

News round-up, Monday, January 23, 2023

---

Quote of the week…

NYT The Editorial Board

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

The war in Ukraine has entered a new, more deadly and fateful phase, and the one man who can stop it, Vladimir Putin, has shown no signs that he will do so.

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

Henry Kissinger Warns That AI Will Fundamentally Alter Human Consciousness

“I’ve become convinced that AI and the surrounding disciplines are going to bring a change in human consciousness, like the Enlightenment.”

Gizmodo.com

Henry Kissinger Warns That AI Will Fundamentally Alter Human Consciousness

By George Dvorsky

Published, November 5, 2019

GIZMODO.com

Speaking in Washington, D.C. earlier today, former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger said he’s convinced of AI’s potential to fundamentally alter human consciousness

—including changes in our self-perception and to our strategic decision-making. He also slammed AI developers for insufficiently thinking through the implications of their creations.

Kissinger, now 96, was speaking to an audience attending the “Strength Through Innovation” conference currently being held at the Liaison Washington Hotel in Washington, D.C. The conference is being run by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which was set up by Congress to evaluate the future of AI in the U.S. as it pertains to national security.

Kissinger, who served under President Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War, is a controversial figure who many argue is an unconvicted war criminal. That he’s speaking at conferences and not spending his later years in a cold jail cell is understandably offensive to some observers.

“I’ve become convinced that AI and the surrounding disciplines are going to bring a change in human consciousness, like the Enlightenment.”

Moderator Nadia Schadlow, who in 2018 served in the Trump administration as the Assistant to the President and as Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy, asked Kissinger about his take on powerful, militarized artificial intelligence and how it might affect global security and strategic decision-making.

“I don’t look at it as a technical person,” said Kissinger. “I am concerned with the historical, philosophical, strategic aspect of it, and I’ve become convinced that AI and the surrounding disciplines are going to bring a change in human consciousness, like the Enlightenment,” he said, adding: “That’s why I’m here.” His invocation of the 18th-century European Enlightenment was a reference to the paradigmatic intellectual shift that occurred during this important historical period, in which science, rationalism, and humanism largely replaced religious and faith-based thinking. 

Though Kissinger didn’t elaborate on this point, he may have been referring to a kind of philosophical or existential shift in our thinking once AI reaches a sufficiently advanced level of sophistication—a development that will irrevocably alter the way we engage with ourselves and our machines, not necessarily for the better.

Kissinger said he’s not “arguing against AI” and that it’s something that might even “save us,” without elaborating on the details.

The former national security advisor said he recently spoke to college students about the perils of AI and that he told them, “‘You work on the applications, I work on the implications.’” He said computer scientists aren’t doing enough to figure out what it will mean “if mankind is surrounded by automatic actions” that cannot be explained or fully understood by humans, a conundrum AI researchers refer to as the black box problem.

Artificial intelligence, he said, “is bound to change the nature of strategy and warfare,” but many stakeholders and decision-makers are still treating it as a “new technical departure.” They haven’t yet understood that AI “must bring a change in the philosophical perception of the world,” and that it will “fundamentally affect human perceptions.”

AI Could Dramatically Increase Risk of Nuclear War by 2040, Says New Report

The common conception of a technologically enabled apocalypse foresees a powerful artificial…

A primary concern articulated by Kissinger was in how militarized AI might cause diplomacy to break down. The secret and ephemeral nature of AI means it’s not something state actors can simply “put on the table” as an obvious threat, unlike conventional or nuclear weapons, said Kissinger. In the strategic field, “we are moving into an area where you can imagine an extraordinary capability” and the “enemy may not know where the threat came from for a while.”

Indeed, this confusion could cause undue chaos on a battlefield, or a country could mistake the source of an attack. Even scarier, a 2018 report from the RAND Corporation warned that AI could eventually heighten the risk of nuclear war. This means we’ll also have to “rethink the element of arms control” and “rethink even how the concept of arms control” might apply to this future world, said Kissinger.

Kissinger said he’s “sort of obsessed” with the work being done by Google’s DeepMind, and the development of AlphaGo and AlphaZero in particular—artificially intelligent systems capable of defeating the world’s best players at chess and Go. He was taken aback by how AlphaGo learned “a form of chess that no human being in all of history ever developed,” and how pre-existing chess-playing computers who played against this AlphaGo were “defenseless.” He said we need to know what this means in the larger scheme of things, and that we should study this concern—that we’re creating things we don’t really understand. “We’re not conscious of this yet as a society,” he said.

Kissinger is confident that AI algorithms will eventually become a part of the military’s decision-making process, but strategic planners will “have to test themselves in war games and even in actual situations to ensure the degree of reliability we can afford to these algorithms, while also having to think through the consequences.”

Kissinger said the situation may eventually be analogous to the onset of World War I, in which a series of logical steps led to a myriad of unanticipated and unwanted consequences.

AI will be the “philosophical challenge of the future.”

“If you don’t see through the implications of the technologies... including your emotional capacities to handle unpredictable consequences, then you’re going to fail on the strategic side,” said Kissinger. It’s not clear, he said, how state actors will be able to conduct diplomacy when they can’t be sure what the other side is thinking, or if they’ll even be able to reassure the other side “even if you wanted to,” he said. “This topic is very important to think about—as you develop weapons of great capacity...how do you talk about it, and how do you build restraint on their use?”

To which he added: “Your weapons in a way become your partner, and if they’re designed for a certain task, how can you modify them under certain conditions? These questions need to be answered.” AI will be the “philosophical challenge of the future,” said Kissinger, because we’ll be partnered with generally intelligent objects that have “never been conceived before, and the limitations are so vast.”

Scary words from a scary guy. The future looks to become a very precarious place.

---

Imagen: by Germán & Co inspired in the illustration of Rebecca Chew/The New York Times

A Brutal New Phase of Putin’s Terrible War in Ukraine

Jan. 21, 2023

NYT The Editorial Board

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

The war in Ukraine has entered a new, more deadly and fateful phase, and the one man who can stop it, Vladimir Putin, has shown no signs that he will do so.

After 11 months during which Ukraine has won repeated and decisive victories against Russian forces, clawed back some of its lands and cities and withstood lethal assaults on its infrastructure, the war is at a stalemate.

Still, the fighting rages on, including a ferocious battle for the city of Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region. Cruel, seemingly random Russian missile strikes at civilian targets have become a regular horror: On Jan. 14, a Russian missile struck an apartment building in Dnipro, in central Ukraine. Among the at least 40 dead were small children, a pregnant woman and a 15-year-old dancer.

Both sides are now said to be bracing for a fierce new round of offensives in the late winter or spring. Russia has mobilized 300,000 new men to throw into the fray, and some arms factories are working around the clock. Ukraine’s Western arms suppliers, at the same time, are bolstering Kyiv’s arsenal with armor and air defense systems that until recently they were reluctant to deploy against Russia for fear of escalating this conflict into an all-in East-West war.

Over the past two months, the United States has pledged billions in new arms and equipment, including a roughly $2.5 billion package announced this week that, for the first time, includes Stryker armored combat vehicles. Other American weapons on their way to Ukraine include the Patriot, the most advanced American ground-based air defense system; Bradley fighting vehicles; armored personnel carriers; and artillery systems. NATO allies have thrown more weapons into the mix, including the first heavy tank pledged to Ukraine, the Challenger 2 heavy tank from Britain. Germany, historically reluctant to have its tanks used against Russia, is under heavy pressure to allow its allies to export its first-rate Leopard tank to Ukraine.

Germany did not make a decision at a meeting with Ukraine’s allies on Friday, in which countries reiterated their support for sending more advanced arms to Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who led the gathering, noted that this was “not a moment to slow down” but to “dig deeper.”

That means the broad, muddy fields of Ukraine will soon again witness full-scale tank-and-trench warfare, this time pitting Western arms against a desperate Russia. This was never supposed to happen again in Europe after the last world war.

Ukraine and its backers hope that the Western arms will be decisive, giving Ukraine a better chance to blunt a Russian offensive and drive the Russians back. How far back is another question. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine talks of chasing Russia out of Ukraine altogether, including the territory seized by Russia in 2014 in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The United States and its allies may prefer a less ambitious outcome, although U.S. officials are reportedly considering it as a possibility. But so long as Mr. Putin shows no readiness to talk, the question is moot. The job at hand is to persuade Russia that a negotiated peace is the only option.

This is why the coming fight is critical. But as Mr. Putin digs himself ever deeper into pursuing his delusions, it is also critical that the Russian people be aware of what is being done in their name, and how it is destroying their own future.

How much of this do Russians know or question? It is difficult to ascertain what Russians are privately saying or thinking, given how dangerous any open criticism of the “limited military operation” has become. Independent media have been stifled, thousands of protesters have been arrested, and many foreign correspondents, including those of The Times, were compelled to leave when it became illegal to dispute the official line about the war.

Still, at the very least, most Russians should be asking when and how this war will end. That is why this editorial is addressed in part to the Russian people: It is in their name that their president is waging this terrible and useless war; their sons, fathers and husbands are being killed, maimed or brutalized into committing atrocities; their lives are being mortgaged for generations to come in a state distrusted and disliked in many parts of the world.

The Kremlin’s propaganda machinery has been working full time churning out false narratives about a heroic Russian struggle against forces of fascism and debauchery, in which the Western arms are but more proof that Ukraine is a proxy war by the West to strip Russia of its destiny and greatness. Mr. Putin has concocted an elaborate mythology in which Ukraine is an indelible part of a “Russkiy mir,” a greater Russian world.

Isolated from anyone who would dare to speak truth to his power, Mr. Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine last year, convinced that the Ukrainians would promptly shed their “fascist” government. The start of the war stunned Russians, but Mr. Putin seemed convinced that a West wasted by decadence and decline would squawk but take no action. He and his commanders were apparently unprepared for the extraordinary resistance they met in Ukraine, or for the speed with which the United States and its allies, horrified by the crude violation of the postwar order, came together in Ukraine’s defense.

Mr. Putin’s response has been to throw ever more lives, resources and cruelty at Ukraine. And with the deplorable support of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, the president has elevated what he insists on calling his “limited military offensive” into an existential struggle between a spiritually ordained Great Russia and a corrupt and debauched West.

But Russians are aware that Ukraine was not widely perceived as an enemy, much less a mortal enemy, until Mr. Putin seized Crimea and stirred up a secessionist conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Until then, Russians and Ukrainians traveled freely across their long border, and many of them had family, acquaintances or friends on the other side.

And after all the poverty, repression and isolation under Soviet rule, Russians need to remember that until Mr. Putin began trying to change Ukraine’s borders by force in 2014, they were finally enjoying what those in other industrialized countries had long considered normal — the opportunity to earn decent salaries, buy consumer goods and enjoy vastly expanded freedoms to travel abroad and speak their mind.

The West they visited was not the caricature of depravity presented by Mr. Putin or Patriarch Kirill. And their Russia was hardly a pure and spiritual model, with the alcoholism, corruption, drug abuse, homophobia and other sins so familiar to all Russians.

In the end, the question is whether any of Mr. Putin’s lectures on history really provide a justification for the death and destruction he has ordained. Russians know the horrors of all-out war; they must know that nothing Mr. Putin has concocted remotely validates the leveling of towns and cities, the murder, rape and pillaging, or the deliberate strikes against power and water supplies across Ukraine. Like the last great European war, this one is mostly one man’s madness.

If Ukraine was not an enemy before, Mr. Putin has ensured it is one now. Battling an invader is among the most potent methods of forging a national identity, and for Ukraine, Russia as its enemy and the West as its future have become indelible elements. And if the West was indeed divided and indecisive on how to deal with Russia or Ukraine before, Moscow’s invasion has unified the United States and much of Europe in relegating Russia to a threat and an outcast, and raising a heroic Ukraine to a friend and ally.

Claiming to champion Russian greatness, Mr. Putin has turned Russia into a pariah state in many parts of the world. He claims Russia has everything it needs to withstand the cost of the war and sanctions. But according to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank, Russia faces decades of economic stagnation and regression even if the war ends soon. Industrial production, even military, is likely to continue falling because of its reliance on high-tech goods from the West that it can no longer get. Many Western companies have left, trade with the West has dwindled, and financing the war is draining the budget. Numerous foreign airlines have ceased service to Russia. Add to that the millions of Russia’s best and brightest who have fled, and the future is bleak.

The true scope of Russia’s casualties is also being kept from its people. Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in November that Moscow’s casualties were “well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded.” About 300,000 men have been pressed into cannon-fodder duty in the army and many more may follow.

It is possible that Mr. Putin might eventually seek a negotiated settlement, though that becomes ever more remote as the Ukrainians suffer ever greater destruction and loss, and as their determination not to cede an inch of their country deepens. For now, Mr. Putin seems to still believe he can bring Ukraine to its knees and dictate its fate, cost be damned.

In his public appearances, Mr. Putin still cultivates the image of a self-confident strongman. Where there are failures, it is the fault of underlings who do not obey his will. He played out that scene on Jan. 11, in his first televised meeting with government ministers in the new year, when he tore into Denis Manturov, deputy prime minister, over aircraft production figures Mr. Putin insisted were wrong and Mr. Manturov defended. Mr. Putin finally exploded, “What are you doing, really, playing the fool?” “Yest’,” Mr. Manturov finally said, the Russian equivalent of “Yes, sir.”

Russians have seen this act before in the Kremlin. They might do well to ponder whether, in this version, Mr. Putin is the omniscient czar and Mr. Manturov the bumbling functionary — the intended lesson — or whether they are being played for fools by Mr. Putin’s vanity, delusions and spitefulness.

---

Image: Germán & Co

---

White House Aims to Reflect the Environment in Economic Data

The Biden administration has set out to measure the economic value of ecosystems, offering new statistics to weigh in policy decisions.

NYT by Lydia DePillis

Jan. 20, 2023

Forests that keep hillsides from eroding and clean the air. Wetlands that protect coastal real estate from storm surges. Rivers and deep snows that attract tourists and create jobs in rural areas. All of those are natural assets of perhaps obvious value — but none are accounted for by traditional measurements of economic activity.

On Thursday, the Biden administration unveiled an effort to change that by creating a system for assessing the worth of healthy ecosystems to humanity. The results could inform governmental decisions like which industries to support, which natural resources to preserve and which regulations to pass.

The administration’s special envoy for climate change, John Kerry, announced the plan in a speech at the World Economic Forum, the annual gathering of political and business leaders in Davos, Switzerland. “With this plan, the U.S. will put nature on the national balance sheet,” he said.

The initiative will require the help of many corners of the executive branch to integrate the new methods into policy. The private sector is likely to take note as well, given rising awareness that extreme weather can wreak havoc on assets — and demand investment in renewable energy and sustainable agriculture.

In the past, such undertakings have been politically contentious, as conservatives and industry groups have fought data collection that they saw as an impetus to regulation.

A White House report said the effort would take about 15 years. When the standards are fully developed and phased in, researchers will still be able to use gross domestic product as currently defined — but they will also have expanded statistics that take into account a broader sweep of nature’s economic contribution, both tangible and intangible.

Those statistics will help more accurately measure the impact of a hurricane, for example. As currently measured, a huge storm can propel economic growth, even though it leaves behind muddied rivers and denuded coastlines — diminishing resources for fishing, transportation, tourism and other economic uses.

“You can look at the TV and know that we’ve lost beaches, we’ve lost lots of stuff that we really care about, that makes our lives better,” said Eli Fenichel, an assistant director at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “And you get an economist to go on and say, ‘G.D.P.’s going to go up this quarter because we’re going to spend a lot of money rebuilding.’ Being able to have these kinds of data about our natural assets, we can say, ‘That’s nice, but we’ve also lost here, so let’s have a more informed conversation going forward.’”

Taking nature into economic calculations, known as natural capital accounting, is not a new concept. As early as the 1910s, economists began to think about how to put a number on the contribution of biodiversity, or the damage of air pollution. Prototype statistics emerged in the 1970s, and in 1994, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis proposed a way to augment its accounting tools with measures of environmental health and output.

But Congress ordered the bureau to halt its efforts until an independent review could be completed. States whose economies depend on drilling, mining and other forms of natural resource extraction were particularly worried that the data could be used for more stringent regulation.

How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

“They thought that anything that measured the question of productivity of natural resources was inherently an environmental trick,” a Commerce Department official said afterward.

Five years later, that independent review was completed in a report for the National Academy of Sciences. The academy panel — led by the Yale economist William Nordhaus, who went on to win the Nobel Prize for his work on the economic impact of climate change — said the bureau should continue.

“Natural resources such as petroleum, minerals, clean water and fertile soils are assets of the economy in much the same way as are computers, homes and trucks,” the report read. “An important part of the economic picture is therefore missing if natural assets are omitted in creating the national balance sheet.”

While the United States lagged, other countries moved ahead with incorporating nature into their core accounting. The United Nations developed a framework for doing so over the last decade that supported decisions such as assessing the impact of shrinking peat land and protecting an endangered species of tree. Britain has been publishing environmental-economic statistics for several years as well. International groups like the Network for Greening the Financial System, which includes most of the world’s central banks, use some of these techniques for assessing systemic risk in the financial system.

Skepticism about including environmental considerations in economic and financial decision-making remains in the United States, where conservatives have disparaged investing guidelines that put a priority on a company’s performance along environmental, social and governance lines. The social cost of carbon, another measurement tool for assessing the economic impact of regulations through their effect on carbon emissions, was set close to zero during the Trump administration and has been increased significantly under President Biden.

Benjamin Zycher, a senior fellow at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, expressed concern Thursday that the new approach would introduce a degree of subjectivity.

“I think there’s a real danger that if in fact they’re trying to put environmental quality values into the national accounts, there’s no straightforward way to do that, and it’s impossible that it wouldn’t be politicized,” Dr. Zycher said in an interview. “That’s going to be a process deeply fraught with problems and dubious interpretations.”

Few economic statistics are a perfect representation of reality, however, and all of them have to be refined to make sure they are consistent and comparable over time. Measuring the value of nature is inherently tricky, since there is often no market price to consult, but other sources of information can be equally illuminating. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has undertaken other efforts to measure the value of services that are never sold, like household labor.

“That’s exactly why we need this sort of strategy,” said Nathaniel Keohane, president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, a research and advocacy group. “To really develop the data we need so that it’s not subjective, and make sure we are really devoting the same quality control and focus on integrity that we do to other areas of economic statistics.”

The strategy does not pretend to cover every aspect of nature’s value, or solve problems of environmental justice simply by more fully incorporating nature’s contribution, particularly for Indigenous communities. Those concerns, said Rachelle Gould, an associate professor of environmental studies at the University of Vermont, will need to be prioritized separately.

“There are a lot of other ways nature matters that can’t be accounted for in monetary terms,” Dr. Gould said. “It’s appropriately cautious about what might be possible.”

---

France will lower gas reservoir levels to provide 'breathing room'

Gas reservoirs, which are historically high, will be reduced for technical reasons, while risk of shortages in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war is declining.

Le Monde

Published on January 23, 2023

It's all a bit confusing. For months, gas reservoirs in France had to be filled at all costs, as quickly as possible, in order to compensate for the cessation of Russian gas supplies. Today, with that mission accomplished, with French underground gas stocks hovering at fill rates of around 79% (and 81% in Europe), industry experts are announcing that they will now have to lower the levels. The move is necessary in order to meet regulatory requirements and preserve the efficiency of their storage facilities.

The move is not surprising within the gas industry, which is used to carrying out this procedure – known as "underdrawing" – every year, especially between January and March. "This is part of the normal life of storage," said Thierry Trouvé, managing director of the transmission system provider GRTGaz, which, on Wednesday 18 January, outlined the outlook for the current winter. "Some storage facilities, namely aquifer formations, which are complicated to operate, require this kind of "breathing room" in order to maintain their performance for the coming winters," he said.

According to a spokesman for Storengy, Engie's storage-focused subsidiary, French reservoirs – currently at historically high levels – could see their rates drop to around 35% and 40%, by the end of this winter for aquifers, which represent three-quarters of French reservoirs. What is not subjected to the procedure, is the gas stored in the saline layers, which should be maintained at high levels of nearly 80%.

'Transported to neighboring countries'

What will happen to this gas if it cannot be fully used? "We are not going to burn it, nor put it in huge Butagaz bottles," one expert said ironically, pointing out that the winter is far from over. Moreover, imports could be reduced. "Shippers have the possibility to reduce the arrival of ships, which can be rerouted to other destinations," said Trouvé.

Another option is to "maintain deliveries and transport them to neighboring countries to contribute to the supply there. Along with Spain in particular, France took on the role of a "gateway" during the Russian crisis [following the invasion of Ukraine at the end of February 2022]," he added. After reaching record levels, in November and December 2022, deliveries of liquefied natural gas, which represents 75% of gas consumption in France as of January 15, have already begun to decline in 2023.

According to GRTGaz, the situation is therefore more serene than in September 2022, even if caution remains the order of the day. The same is true for electricity and its supply. "There is still a period (...), around the second half of February, [with] some risks, if we were to go through a significant and long cold snap, because the nuclear power plants will begin to decrease production," agreed Xavier Piechaczyk, chairman of the board of the electricity network manager RTE, on FranceInfo radio on Wednesday, January 18.

---

In Lima, police violently storm a campus hosting protesters

Two hundred people were arrested during a police raid of San Marcos University, which was hosting protesters demanding the resignation of Peruvian president, Dina Boluarte.

Le Monde by Amanda Chaparro (Lima (Peru) correspondent)

Published on January 23, 2023

On Saturday, January 21, a police armored vehicle smashed through the doors of the campus of the National University of San Marcos in Lima. Maria (her first name has been changed), a 17-year-old student, was preparing meals for protesters who had come from various regions of Peru, mostly from the Andes. They had been staying for three days on the university campus. They had come to participate in the protest convened on Thursday in the capital to demand the resignation of Dina Boluarte. Boluarte is the acting president who succeeded Pedro Castillo after he was ousted, on December 7th, 2022.

Maria then started to run. Behind her, a column of a hundred men entered. They were determined to expel the protesters. Maria heard screams and saw people falling, while others were being beaten. Luckily, she managed to escape through one of the gates. "We were very scared," she explained on the phone. She was still shocked by the brutality of the operation. "Police officers threw tear gas canisters, we heard gunfire, I saw a peasant woman being hit in the head with batons, there was a helicopter flying over the campus. It was completely excessive and a disproportionate amount of violence."

A few moments later, tens of people were spread out on the ground, face down and handcuffed with their hands behind them. Most of them were taken to the criminal police department in Lima's historic center. A mother and her eight-year-old daughter were among them. The protesters were detained for theft and damage to public property. A smaller group of about 30 people was sent to the anti-terrorism police department.

"San Marcos" is one of the oldest public universities in South America, a melting pot of intellectual debates. Currently, in the university gardens, there are tents, mattresses and mountains of food that the inhabitants of Lima have brought in solidarity with the movement. Near the wall's gate, torn banners lay on the ground. You could see the messages written by the students: "The blood that has been spilled will never be forgotten." Next to them were photos of the faces of the protesters who have died in the south of the country since the conflict began on December 7. There are now at least 46 of them, most of them shot dead by the police and army.

Excessive intervention and arbitrary arrests

The violent police action at San Marcos University is evidence of the authoritarian turn taken by Dina Boluarte's government, which does not hesitate to intimidate, arrest and criminalize the protesters and their supporters. The government is doing this with the complicity of the country's main media groups. "The aim is to break the morale of the protesters and to break the movement. The government is sending them a message: don't come to the capital, you have no place to stay, we are going to arrest you and prosecute you," explained Omar Coronel, a sociologist at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru.

On Saturday, human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, denounced an excessive intervention without the presence of the Public Prosecutor's Office, arbitrary arrests (almost 200), and the lack of respect for the presence of lawyers and human rights violations. Some protesters have come from the south of the country on the Bolivian border and speak only Aymara. They have not had access to translators. Some women were forced to strip naked "to look for drugs in their private parts," said Jennie Dador of the National Coordination for Human Rights.

The intervention has sparked a wave of outrage in the country and may have the effect of increasing sympathy for the protest movement. According to the latest survey by the Institute of Peruvian Studies in January, 60% of the population said they understand the protesters. In Lima, only 52%, but "the urban middle classes of the capital" could take more action, said Omar Coronel.

On Saturday afternoon, another campus was the target of an operation of intimidation. Trucks full of police and military personnel were deployed in large numbers in front of the National University of Engineering, in the northeast of the city. This university has also been hosting protesters, students who have come from other regions. They were invited there by the rector himself, Pablo Alfonso Lopez-Cahu. The rector opened his arms to them as soon as they arrived in the capital on Wednesday. "You are welcome," he said. "This is your home, take care of it." Since then, a hundred young people have been sleeping on the premises every night.

'Democracy has been flouted'

Inside, volunteers were busy sorting the donations received and redistributing them: blankets, clothes and food. "It's crazy to see this solidarity," said Delia Valencia, a 21-year-old psychology student. "Look, this room is full, we're receiving food, cookies, drinks, and also first aid material, alcohol and bicarbonate" to treat the injured.

"The students come from Arequipa, Cusco and Puno," explained Leandro Gamez, a representative of the students from the National University of Engineering in Lima. These regions in the south of the country are the epicenter of the protests. "The police want to intimidate us to try and sabotage this impulse to give mutual aid," said the young woman, who explained that officers give traffic tickets to residents who stop in front of the building to leave their donations. These are maneuvers that do not frighten some people: "The protesters have come from far away and with very little stuff," explained an old lady who came to leave clothes. "Moreover, the police have confiscated some people's bags."

Victoria is holding her baby in one arm, a pack of water in the other. "It's the least we can do to help them," she said. "Dina Boluarte must resign. Democracy has been flouted. Where is the respect for human rights? Believe me, if I didn't have my baby and I had to die for my country, I would."

Saturday, in Lima, the protesters were at the city center for the third consecutive day. Some had gathered until late in the night in front of the premises of the criminal police department to demand the prisoners' release. But the protests show signs of running out of steam, and morale is down in the ranks. Some delegations are preparing to leave for the provinces to reorganize the troops and regain their strength.

In the south of the country, protests continue and the situation remains tense. A 62-year-old man was killed Friday evening in Ilave, in the region of Puno, where policemen were filmed shooting at protesters with pistols. Access to the Incan site of Machu Picchu has been closed until further notice, because the railroad was damaged there.

Dina Boluarte still refuses to resign. The majority right-wing Parliament supports her, while an investigation has been opened against her and three of her ministers for homicide.

Amanda Chaparro(Lima (Peru) correspondent)

---

Frederick Florin/AFP

To go or not to go? Von der Leyen’s COVID committee dilemma

A European Parliament session on vaccines would refocus attention on von der Leyen’s texts with Pfizer’s CEO.

POLITICO EU bY CARLO MARTUSCELLI

JANUARY 20, 2023

There won’t be any severed horses’ heads but the European Commission president may soon receive an offer that she can’t refuse — at least without causing an institutional dust-up.

Last week, the coordinators of the European Parliament’s special committee on COVID-19 voted to invite Ursula von der Leyen to appear in front of the panel to answer their questions on vaccine procurement. 

It’s not a courtesy call. EU lawmakers want to shine a light on exactly what happened during those hectic months at the height of the pandemic in 2021, when the bloc was frantically searching for vaccine doses to protect its population from the coronavirus.

The committee’s chair, Belgian MEP Kathleen Van Brempt has said she wants full transparency on the “preliminary negotations” leading up to vaccine purchases — a reference to the Commission president's unusual personal role in negotiating the EU's biggest vaccine contract, signed with Pfizer and its partner BioNTech. An appearance would refocus attention on von der Leyen's highly contentious undisclosed text messages with Pfizer's chief executive.

By Clea Caulcutt

It's a topic von der Leyen has so far fiercely resisted opening up about — but the COVI committee invite could put the Commission president in a sticky situation.

All bark, no bite? 

On the face of it, von der Leyen could just say no. European Parliament committees don’t have many formal powers. They have no rights to compel witnesses to appear or to get them to tell the truth — and there’s no recourse if someone refuses to appear or lies in front of the committee.

Indeed, Pfizer’s Chief Executive Albert Bourla — with whom von der Leyen is reported to have conducted personal negotiations via text message — thumbed his nose at the committee more than once, and sent one of his employees instead.

Even when the Parliament does reel in a big name, the performance can be lackluster — like in the case of Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg who agreed to show up but then avoided answering most questions. That’s a far cry from how the U.S. Senate’s commerce and judiciary committees grilled the tech titan for hours. 

And the Commission president has already shown a penchant for being evasive when it comes the Pfizer negotiations, earning the Commission a verdict of maladministration from the European Ombudsman for its lack of transparency.

However, the fact that von der Leyen is an inter-institutional figure gives the Parliament more bite than with external guests — and may help tip the balance in the committee’s favour.

First, there’s precedent. While the Commission President usually appears in front of all MEPs at a plenary session such as in the annual State of the European Union speech, Commission presidents have appeared in front of committees in the past. Von der Leyen’s predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, for example, appeared in front of a special committee to answer uncomfortable questions over his role in making Luxembourg a tax haven. 

Secondly, the European Parliament is tasked with overseeing the EU’s budget. With billions of euros spent in the joint purchase of the vaccines, and part of those funds coming straight from the EU’s pockets, it’s hard to argue that there aren’t important financial considerations at play, and ones that the elected representatives of the EU should be allowed to scrutinize.

Then there’s Article 13 of the EU’s founding treaty, which calls for “mutual sincere cooperation” between the EU’s institutions. It’s a point that’s repeated in an inter-institutional agreement between the Parliament and the Commission, which states that the EU’s executive should also provide lawmakers with confidential information when it’s requested — like, for example, the contents of certain text messages.

The Commission has so far been tight-lipped. When asked last week about Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming invite to the COVID-19 committee, a Commission spokesperson said “No such invitation has been received.”

Don’t shoot the messenger 

And, in fact, it's now up to European Parliament president Roberta Metsola to decide whether the invite will ever reach von der Leyen’s hands. The request is on her desk and, per protocol, any invitation to appear must come from the president’s office.

Metsola, who belongs to the same political group as von der Leyen (the center-right European People’s Party), confirmed to POLITICO that she has received a letter from the COVI committee and “will look at it.” “I cannot pre-empt what my reply will be to that committee,” she said.

As long as proper form is followed, Metsola should "pass on the message," said Emilio De Capitani, a former civil servant who for 14 years was secretary of the European Parliament’s civil liberties committee (LIBE).

“The question isn’t abusive,” said De Capitani.  

In theory, von der Leyen, who was elected to her role by the Parliament, relies on its mandate to stay there.

“There’s nothing strange about meeting with an organ of the Parliament,” the former Parliamentary official added. “Then it will be up to von der Leyen to ask whether the hearing is in public or, behind closed doors. She could also choose to address it in plenary.” 

For political operatives such as Metsola and von der Leyen, the optics of their actions are likely to play a major role in any decision. And this invite comes at the same time as the biggest scandal in the European Parliament’s history.

An assistant for one of the MEPs in the COVI committee said the drive for transparency produced by the unfolding "Qatargate" influence scandal gave extra force to the invite.

“It wouldn't have had the same result without Qatargate,” said the assistant. “If she says no, it will only make the problem worse.” 

Not everyone agrees. Detractors say the Parliament has lost its moral standing. And that even if none of the MEPs in the COVID-19 committee are implicated, the institution is still weakened on the whole.

“I think this [Qatargate] will make it less likely for von der Leyen to cooperate with the Parliament,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the think tank Centre for European Reform. She said the Commission president is riding high after weathering a pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine.

“The European Parliament in theory could force von der Leyen to appear by threatening to dismiss her — but how can they do that in the current climate?”

This article was updated Friday morning to include comment from Roberta Metsola.

Eddy Wax contributed repoclosing Documents Quickly

“I think you’re going to find there’s nothing there,” the president told a reporter who asked if he regretted not divulging that classified material was found at his office before the midterms.

---

News round-up, Tuesday, February 28, 2023

---

Quote of the week…

—-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in Davos, caught between radical environmentalists on one hand and pressure from Ukraine for Leopard heavy tanks on the other, sought to distance himself from the fray. The only head of state of a G7 country to have made the trip to Switzerland this year, he detailed his battle plan to make his country the world leader in the fight against climate change even while restoring its industrial competitiveness. He presented the strategy in martial terms.

"Most importantly, our transformation toward a climate-neutral economy – the fundamental task of our century – is currently taking on an entirely new dynamic," the chancellor said. "Not in spite of, but because of the Russian war and the resulting pressure on us Europeans to change." As proof of his country's dynamism and of Russian President Vladimir Putin's failure, he emphasized that Germany, which had been dependent on Russian gas supplies in the run-up to the offensive, had managed to become almost completely free of them in less than a year. (Le Monde)

---

Andres Gluski, President & CEO of the AES Corporation, had a productive first day at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting #WEF2023 in Davos, Switzerland.

—that the kind of worldwide transformation urgently needed now , can only be achieved with the cooperation of the public and private sectors, Gluski said.

Over the next few days, about 1,700 CEOs and 400 other prominent personalities will gather in Davos to explore solutions to global concerns such as climate change, energy efficiency, and electrification.

Image: Andrés Gluski, President and CEO and Ricardo Manuel Falú, Senior Vice President and Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and Madelka McCalla, Chief Corporate Affairs and Impact Officer at The AES Corporation

---

Seafloat-hybrid-power-plant

Armando Rodriguez, Seaboard CEO for the Dominican Republic, concludes: 

 “We are very excited about this project because it will be a big benefit to the community in terms of the environment and the employment we will provide to the area.

Seaboard Dominican Republic

---

Cooperate with ethical thinking…

---

What is Artificial Intelligency?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the ability of a computer or a robot controlled by a computer to do tasks that are usually done by humans because they require human intelligence and discernment. Although there are no AIs that can perform the wide variety of tasks an ordinary human can do, some AIs can match humans in specific tasks.

Shocking: This is what Chile would be like if climate change continues, according to A.I. (La Tercera)

---

Egor Kraft’s ‘Content Aware Studies’ series uses AI-generated videos and 3D printing to explore how machine learning reconstructs damaged antiquities

Trevor Good, courtesy of the artist and Alexander Levy Gallery, Berlin

Bringing a human touch to digital innovation in Europe

The artist in the science lab

The S+T+ARTS programme funds collaborations between science, technology and the arts. It’s enabling artists to tackle urgent issues, including our relationship to nature, big data and artificial intelligence.

by Maya Jaggi 

January 2023

Le Monde Diplomatique

Egor Kraft’s ‘Content Aware Studies’ series uses AI-generated videos and 3D printing to explore how machine learning reconstructs damaged antiquities

Trevor Good, courtesy of the artist and Alexander Levy Gallery, Berlin

When climate change protesters hurled tomato soup at Van Gogh’s Sunflowers in London last October, they shouted, ‘What is worth more? Art or life [and] the protection of our planet?’ One Just Stop Oil activist claimed the protests kickstarted the conversation ‘so that we can ask the questions that matter’.

Whatever the publicity from these symbolic acts of vandalism, the implied opposition between art and environmental ethics is misleading. Artists have long been in the vanguard of raising public awareness of the fragility of nature. Judging by the fruits of a Europe-wide scheme to immerse artists in cutting-edge science and technology (roughly half these EU projects involve ecology) (1), the questions posed by this rising avant-garde are arguably more nuanced, profound and conducive to behavioural and political change than protesters’ shock tactics.

At the Bozar Centre for Fine Arts in Brussels last month, laboratory-like installations by Haseeb Ahmed, an American artist based in Belgium, warned of the pharmaceutical pollution of water through human urine — a counterpoint to the city’s landmark Manneken Pis fountain with its urinating cherub near the Grand Place. One of these, The Fountain of the Amazons (alluding to legendary female warriors), demonstrates unintended effects on aquatic life of contraceptive hormones entering the water system: an artificial vagina squirts a pill per day into a vat of orange urine in which a mutant creature floats as though plucked from a Hieronymus Bosch painting.

In a companion artwork, A Fountain of Eternal Youth, human growth hormones ingested for their putative anti-ageing properties are dripped via an IV tube into a circular pool whose mirror surface (evoking Narcissus) invites viewers to weigh the costs of their own habits and desires.

Ahmed’s artistic ‘scenarios’ convert research on large-scale phenomena ‘to a scale the body can experience, addressing our senses,’ he told me. His aim is not protest ‘art against pharmaceuticals, because it’s complex; we rely on them to maintain our quality of life. The pill brought social freedom for women, but it’s also affecting the androgynisation of fish. So I create machines to help us think together about our ambivalence.’

‘Thinking machines’

Ahmed’s intriguing, disturbing ‘thinking machines’ were part of a Bozar group show, Faces of Water, resulting from artists’ residencies with scientists and engineers around Europe to explore phenomena from toxins to melting glaciers. He worked closely with pharma companies, and also water treatment and public policy experts: ‘Because knowledge has become hyper-specialised, we’re trying to tie knots between fields, to understand the world we’re producing.’ While not without friction, these collaborations can spark dialogue. One company, he recalled, was ‘unhappy with an accusation in the press that they’re not doing enough, so they took out an ad to say what they are doing.’

The residencies were instigated by S+T+ARTS, a European Commission programme funding collaborations between science, technology and the arts since 2016. The aim of embedding artists in R&D teams in industry and universities is not only to raise awareness of global challenges through exhibitions, but to act as a catalyst to tomorrow’s digital innovations. ‘It’s important to bring in new ideas to change mindsets,’ said Ralph Dum of DG Connect (the EC’s directorate general for information and communications technology). Dum, the founding head of the S+T+ARTS programme, is a quantum physicist who joined the Commission 20 years ago, pioneering interdisciplinary programmes that combined experts, such as biologists with data scientists. ‘Now it’s standard, but that didn’t exist then.’

It's important to bring in new ideas to change mindsets ... Artists profit from technology but engineers also profit from artistsRalph Dum

In the Renaissance and Baroque Kunst- und Wunderkammer (the cabinet of arts and curiosities that presaged the modern museum), art objects were viewed alongside scientific instruments and natural marvels. However, 18th-century Enlightenment rationalism and empiricism sundered arts from sciences. By 1959 the British scientist and writer CP Snow, in his famous Cambridge lecture The Two Cultures, lamented the ‘gulf of mutual incomprehension’ between science and the humanities; even engineers and pure scientists were unable to communicate. Now, Dum said, ‘people know more and more about less and less ... it’s almost impossible to bridge the gaps.’ Yet, he argued, ‘science and art are not so different; both relate to curiosity.’

The Manneken Pis fountain was a 17th-century sculptor’s solution to the challenge of providing urban drinking water — a union of aesthetics and engineering explicitly embraced by the Bauhaus movement in 1920s Germany. For Dum, ‘artists are very practical people; they address issues in concrete ways.’ He cites a product emerging from Project Alias by Bjørn Karmann and Tore Knudsen, tackling the invasion of privacy of smart home assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa: ‘There’s no way of making Alexa deaf. So they manipulated the software to ensure Alexa only listens when you want.’ That project won the S+T+ARTS annual Grand Prix for Artistic Exploration in 2019. The previous year’s winning project for Innovative Collaboration, the 3D-printed steel MX3D Bridge,now spans an Amsterdam canal. Besides S+T+ARTS funding for research projects and residences (150 to date, with 70 more this year), more than 200 prizewinners have been chosen from among 15,000 open-call submissions.

For Gerfried Stocker, artistic director of Ars Electronica, at the interface of culture and tech in the Austrian city of Linz since 1979, S+T+ARTS has become a ‘driving force influencing how Europe is going into the digital future. It’s reached critical mass. Art-and-science is cool now.’

‘Artists see things we don’t’

Until the pandemic, S+T+ARTS prizewinners were exhibited annually at Bozar. Emma Dumartheray, exhibitions coordinator for Bozar Lab, views the programme’s residencies as a distinct model of art sponsorship, with companies donating employees’ time and knowledge. Partners such as Ars Electronica contribute experience of brokering collaborations, negotiating patent agreements in case of lucrative breakthroughs. For Dum, ‘artists profit from technology but engineers also profit from artists. Now people understand we don’t interfere with the art.’

‘Artists see things we don’t ... because you need distance,’ Christophe De Jaeger, director of another key partner, Gluon in Brussels, told me. Before starting Bozar Lab in 2017, he founded Gluon (in 2009) to send artists into industrial R&D labs. ‘Employees gain holistic perspectives, talking to other experts in a non-competitive environment; artists can be very weird — emotionally engaged, radical, intuitive, serendipitous, and they don’t care if they make mistakes ... they don’t have to prove things.’ Art ‘can only be useful if it’s allowed to be totally useless,’ said Stocker, who sees the programme’s unique value as enabling experimentation free from ‘a creative industries focus on going to market’.

We rely on pharmaceuticals to maintain our quality of life. The pill brought social freedom for women, but it's also affecting the androgynisation of fish. So I create machines to help us think together about our ambivalenceHaseeb Ahmed

‘It’s not just about painting the iPhone pink,’ Dum told me. Instead of using regulation and ethical committees to rein in technology, the goal is for artists to ‘humanise its whole development’, raising ethical and green concerns at each stage of innovation. In shaping interaction between people and machines, ‘engineers are sometimes very nerdy; they don’t have the human touch.’ Yet do artists necessarily introduce moral perspectives? ‘It’s a touchy subject,’ the physicist replied. ‘I wouldn’t claim artists are more moral than scientists, but they’re very critical in different ways.’

The artist’s critical eye is ubiquitous in Navigating the Digital Realm, (2) a S+T+ARTS group exhibition at DG Connect until 28 February, which explores frontier technology and big data — from deepfakes, surveillance and dating apps to Artificial Intelligence (AI). The AI-generated videos of Egor Kraft’s Content Aware Studies (2019) show how machine learning reconstructs lost fragments of classical sculptures using datasets of thousands of scanned antiquities. The ‘speculative restorations’ are 3D-printed and CNC-routed in marble and synthetic materials but the algorithms can produce grotesque errors, such as creating a face on the back of a caryatid’s head. One of his aims, Kraft told me, was to ‘destroy the romanticism of AI’ — a fabulous but dangerously fallible tool.

New avant-garde is ‘proposing alternatives’

‘It’s not just artistic commentary; they’re also proposing alternatives,’ Stocker said. Between the ‘super data capitalism of the US’ and the ‘electronic totalitarianism of China,’ he asked, ‘what remains for Europe? We can try to do it differently.’ Climate change and CO2 emissions have become paramount concerns as the EU strives through the European Green Deal to create the first climate-neutral continent. ‘The Internet, AI, blockchain,’ De Jaeger said, ‘all these technologies might have positive or negative impacts on the larger challenges of climate justice, equality, migration.’

Pre-Enlightenment Wunderkammern projected the power of their collectors, but were also cabinets of wonder. They may share something with a 21st-century avant-garde that aims through frontier technology to revive awe and respect for nature. Olga Kisseleva’s Cities Live Like Trees: Green Index Formula drives an app that connects citizens to green zones in their city, based on ‘deep listening between humans and trees.’ John Palmesino, co-founder of Territorial Agency, uses open-access data (‘sensors accumulating trillions of terabytes every day’) to help create a new understanding of the ocean as a ‘sensorium’ of human activity.

‘All life in the universe exists in a thin layer of atmosphere which has its dynamic,’ said Ahmed, whose solo show 18 Winds uses AI and wind machines to track the cultural and historical connotations of the Sirocco, and other winds. ‘How do we relate to natural environments without imposing ourselves?’ he asked me. These are vital questions: ‘By separating nature from what we make it mean to us, maybe we can start to think again.’

Maya Jaggi is a writer, critic, artistic director and cultural consultant. She was a DAAD Art and Media fellow in Berlin and is a judge of the 2023 EBRD Literature Prize.

Davos, Switzerland, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann

Scholz details acceleration of Germany's energy transition at Davos

The German chancellor, the only leader of a G7 country present at the World Economic Forum, presented his plan on Wednesday in Switzerland.

Le Monde by Philippe Escande

Published on January 19, 2023

The controversy had to be washed away. Climate activist Greta Thunberg had been arrested by the German police during a demonstration against the expansion of a lignite coal mine on Tuesday, January 17, which was inconsistent with a country in which the Greens form part of the executive, even if they share power with the liberal Free Democrats (FPD) and Social Democrats (SPD) allies. Half an hour before the head of the German government took to the podium at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 18, former US vice president Al Gore, a veteran of the climate movement, had given his support to the demonstrators.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, caught between radical environmentalists on one hand and pressure from Ukraine for Leopard heavy tanks on the other, sought to distance himself from the fray. The only head of state of a G7 country to have made the trip to Switzerland this year, he detailed his battle plan to make his country the world leader in the fight against climate change even while restoring its industrial competitiveness. He presented the strategy in martial terms.

"Most importantly, our transformation toward a climate-neutral economy – the fundamental task of our century – is currently taking on an entirely new dynamic," the chancellor said. "Not in spite of, but because of the Russian war and the resulting pressure on us Europeans to change." As proof of his country's dynamism and of Russian President Vladimir Putin's failure, he emphasized that Germany, which had been dependent on Russian gas supplies in the run-up to the offensive, had managed to become almost completely free of them in less than a year.

Great national cause

"It took us a few months to install two liquefied gas import terminals when we took 20 years to build the Berlin airport," said German Finance Minister Christian Lindner the day before, also at Davos. The great national cause is now that of renewable energies and hydrogen. By 2030, 80% of the country's electricity will be generated by renewables.

Scholz qualified that "at the same time, our electricity requirements are increasing – from 600 terawatt hours today to 750 by the end of the decade. And we are expecting them to double, yet again, in the 2030s." This development is driven by the needs of its powerful industrial sector. According to him, this represents an investment of €400 billion.

In order to increase the number of solar and, above all, wind power installations, the government has passed its own energy transition acceleration law, similar to the one passed in France on January 10. The law aims to reduce administrative formalities and shorten the granting of authorizations for connection to the network by two years. "The obstacles have been swept aside," the chancellor said. The government will support what Scholz called an "electrolysis boom," a hydrogen economy that will make Germany, and Europe behind it, independent of fossil fuels.

In the short term, until mid-2024, the government will maintain its €180-billion tariff shield so that companies no longer suffer the pangs of skyrocketing prices: "It is now crystal-clear to each and every one of us that the future belongs solely to renewables," said Scholz. "For cost reasons, for environmental reasons, for security reasons, and because in the long run, renewables promise the best returns."

Preventing industrial relocation

With some companies such as BASF threatening to relocate to the US because of energy prices, the pressure for domestic industry to stay on German soil was evident. Similarly, in order to alleviate job shortages that will be exacerbated by demographic decline, the Scholz government will modernize its immigration legislation before the end of the year.

"If we want to remain competitive as a leading industrial nation, we need experienced practitioners – qualified engineers, tradesmen and mechanics," said Scholz. "Those who want to roll up their sleeves are welcome in Germany."

It is no coincidence that the German chancellor remains a regular at Davos when the other big shots are away. He is also one of the last unconditional supporters of free trade and dislikes the concept of trade between friends, or "friendshoring," popularized by the Americans to mean that everyone must choose sides.

Although the country is hesitating about sending its battle tanks to Kyiv, Chancellor Scholz gathered international experts in October 2022 to think about a "Marshall Plan" to help rebuild the country. It was a bold proposal but also amounted to yet another opportunity for German industry, something that a worthy chancellor always keeps in mind.

---

Image: Germán & Co

'International climate aid is insufficient, ineffective and unfairly allocated'

After COP27, held in Egypt in November 2022, four economists analyze the true impact of international aid funded through climate negotiations.

Le Monde by Group letter

Published on January 19, 2023

Participants are pictured at the Sharm el-Sheikh International Convention Center during the COP27 climate conference, in Egypt's Red Sea resort city of the same name, on November 9, 2022. MOHAMMED ABED / AFP

It is now well established that the world's least developed countries and island countries are most affected by climate change while bearing the lowest historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions.

To address this injustice, developed countries have set up so-called "climate aid" transfers to help developing countries protect themselves from the effects of climate change and encourage them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Yet international climate aid is insufficient, ineffective and unfairly allocated. In particular, the most vulnerable countries receive less aid than developing countries. Between 1995 and 2020, the countries that received the most aid were India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh and China. How can we explain this disparity between less developed countries' needs and the aid they receive?

Commercial interests

To restore climate justice, rich countries attending the 2009 climate negotiations in Copenhagen committed to mobilizing jointly $100 billion per year (about €93.20 billion) in new and additional aid to address climate change issues, in addition to development assistance already provided.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, developed nations confirmed they would renew this yearly aid of at least $100 billion until 2025. The latest figures show that donors did not keep their promises: Only $83.3 billion was mobilized in 2020, and that sum includes private financing mobilized by the public sector. Public funding amounted to only $68.3 billion in 2020.

Aid transfers for climate change adaptation accounted for only 34% of the $83.3 billion. This percentage is larger for island and least developed countries, but mitigation remains the primary climate aid for these countries, whose emissions are low. These numbers should be compared to United Nations Environment Program estimates that developing nations will need $140 billion to $300 billion by 2030 for annual climate adaptation costs.

We can draw some lessons from this climate aid.

First, there is a link between the allocation of bilateral climate aid and the commercial interests of donor countries, particularly their export levels. Is this aid being diverted from its initial target? It appears that climate aid, like other development aid, builds on historical, cultural and commercial links (former colonies, migration, etc.).

'Greenwashing'

Climate aid allows developing nations to rebuild production structures damaged by climate change, structures that affect the production of goods consumed by rich countries. Such aid also helps poor countries maintain their incomes and thereby keep buying goods produced by rich countries. This comes dangerously close to being disguised aid to exporting companies. In any case, it cannot be considered entirely neutral.

Secondly, studies have not been able to show that climate aid effectively reduces emissions or increases resilience to climate change or leads to adopting ambitious climate policies. One explanation for this lack of results could be that allocations are too modest: Since the projects financed are small-scale or unambitious, their effects are negligible. The content of climate aid could also explain why its effects are so limited or even nonexistent.

Perhaps the most worrying aspect, if we look at the details of the projects financed under the climate aid label, is that many of them have no link, direct or indirect, with climate issues. Donor countries declare as "climate projects" various development, education or health projects that may be beneficial but have no climate component.

For example, in 2018, a donor country cited a project to support elections and oversight institutions in Kenya as a climate change initiative. This can be construed as the "greenwashing" of climate aid: The donor country presents development aid as climate aid to boost its pro-environmental reputation without actually meeting the "additional" climate aid requirement.

Just words?

Countries attending the climate conference, held November 6-18, 2022, in Sharm El-Sheikh, agreed to establish a "loss and damage" fund to compensate least developed and island countries already suffering from the effects of climate change.

While this is a step in the right direction, it only partially solves the problem, since it simply creates a new international fund on top of existing funds (Adaptation Fund and Green Climate Fund), without correcting the flaws in climate aid design.

This decision also raises questions about implementation. Who will contribute to this new mechanism and what will be the amounts and origins of funds? To be precise, will they be private investments or real subsidies from rich countries to the most vulnerable countries?

Why not increase the amount of aid for climate change adaptation and set quotas for the most affected countries? The vagueness surrounding the creation of this new fund makes us fear it is all just words. A proposal for the organization of this fund will be presented at the COP28 in December 2023, and we hope it will prove us wrong.

Signatories: Basak Bayramoglu, research director at the French National Institute of Agronomic Research (INRAE) and deputy director of the Paris-Saclay Applied Economics (PSAE) unit; Jean-François Jacques, professor at the Université Gustave-Eiffel and attached to the Erudite unit; Clément Nedoncelle, research fellow at INRAE and attached to the PSAE unit; Lucille Neumann-Noël, doctoral student at the Université Paris-Saclay and INRAE, and attached to PSAE.

---

---

Biden Says He Has ‘No Regrets’ About Not Disclosing Documents Quickly

“I think you’re going to find there’s nothing there,” the president told a reporter who asked if he regretted not divulging that classified material was found at his office before the midterms.

NYT by Katie Rogers

Jan. 19, 2023

WASHINGTON — President Biden said on Thursday that he had “no regrets” that the White House did not disclose before the midterm elections that classified documents from his time as vice president were found in his private office in early November.

After Mr. Biden toured Capitola, Calif., a beach town that has been ravaged by weeks of winter storms, the president took a question from a reporter, saying he felt that the “American people don’t quite understand” why journalists were asking about the documents and not his tour, which was focused on storm recovery.

“As we found a handful of documents were failed, or filed, in the wrong place, we immediately turned them over to the archives and the Justice Department,” Mr. Biden said, referring to the National Archives and Records Administration. “We’re fully cooperating, looking forward to getting this resolved quickly. I think you’re going to find there’s nothing there. I have no regrets. I’m following what the lawyers have told me they want me to do. It’s exactly what we’re doing. There’s no ‘there’ there.”

Mr. Biden and his advisers, who were at first reluctant to release information about the discovery of the documents, have faced an onslaught of questions about why the White House kept quiet about the material for so long. Mr. Biden’s lawyers discovered the first batch of classified papers on Nov. 2, six days before the midterm elections, and later found a second set in a room next to the garage in his home in Wilmington, Del., in December.

The existence of the documents became public only last week.

Last Thursday, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland appointed a special counsel, Robert K. Hur, to investigate how the documents were handled.

The White House has tried to draw a clear contrast between Mr. Biden’s retention of classified documents and a case surrounding former President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Trump is under criminal investigation for taking several hundred documents with classified markings from the White House to Mar-a-Lago, his private residence in Palm Beach, Fla., and failing to fully comply with a subpoena.

Mr. Biden’s team appears to have acted swiftly and in accordance with the law upon the discovery of the documents, immediately summoning officials with the National Archives to retrieve the files. The archives then alerted the Justice Department. Officials have described the documents found at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, the think tank established as Mr. Biden’s private office after leaving the vice presidency, as “a small number of documents with classified markings.”

Mr. Biden’s remarks on Thursday closely echoed those made earlier in the week by Ian Sams, a spokesman for the White House Counsel’s Office, who assured reporters that Mr. Biden was fully cooperating with the investigation.

“It’s important to really understand the distinction here: President Biden is committed to doing the responsible thing and acting appropriately,” Mr. Sams said on Tuesday. “His team acted promptly to disclose information to the proper authorities and is cooperating fully.”

---