News round-up, July 25, 2023

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Editorial…

The Importance of Developing New Nuclear Bomb Cores in the United States: Why?

In today's fast-changing world, the United States must prioritize the development of new nuclear bomb cores; this decision may be attributed to the ongoing arms race between the two countries. Russia's development of new strategic nuclear weapons, such as a hypersonic nuclear-armed glider and an air-launched ballistic missile, has raised concerns about potential threats to U.S. national security.

The Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia, citing Russian violations, has exacerbated these concerns. With the withdrawal, concerns have been raised about the potential reintroduction of nuclear-armed mid-range ballistic and cruise missiles as competition intensifies. Due to this, the United States is intensifying its production of nuclear bomb cores to ensure its capability to deter potential threats.

Each year, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) plans to produce 80 plutonium pits. Nuclear pits are composed of fissile material and neutron reflectors or tamper-proof bonds. Previously, some weapons used pits made from uranium-235 alone or in combination with plutonium.

These pits will be produced at the Mixed-Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facility in North Carolina, which will be modified to produce at least 50 pits a year. A minimum of 30 pits will also be produced by Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico by 2030.

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Most read…

In the Lab Oppenheimer Built, the U.S. Is Building Nuclear Bomb Cores Again

At the New Employee Training (NET) facility of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), empty waste drums are set up for a “Container Handling for Waste Operators” training session.

TIME BY W.J. HENNIGAN/LOS ALAMOS, N.M., JULY 24, 2023

China’s Foreign Minister Replaced After Unexplained Absence

Qin Gang is removed months after Xi Jinping promoted him to head the Foreign Ministry

TWP By Chun Han Wong,  July 25, 2023 

Indonesia's big gas projects to proceed after global majors sell stakes

Reuters By Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette Christina

Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals as Rally Builds

S&P 500 is trading near its highest level since April 2022 as hopes grow for a soft landing

WSJ By Karen Langley, July 25, 2023 

Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion

^TWP By Catherine Belton, Shane Harris and Greg Miller, July 25, 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Einstein vs Oppenheimer!/Editing by Germán & Co

In the Lab Oppenheimer Built, the U.S. Is Building Nuclear Bomb Cores Again

At the New Employee Training (NET) facility of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), empty waste drums are set up for a “Container Handling for Waste Operators” training session.

TIME BY W.J. HENNIGAN/LOS ALAMOS, N.M., JULY 24, 2023

Something unusual is happening inside the plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. PF-4, as it is known to top government officials, is the heart of America’s nuclear complex, a lab where scientists and engineers study and experiment on highly radioactive materials in tight secrecy. Recently, employees have discovered yellow plastic tents encasing equipment and rendering it inaccessible. At Los Alamos, where even the cleaning crews and firefighters require high-level security clearances, you might think the tents are designed to restrict access to the latest wonder weapon or scientific breakthrough. The truth is more mundane—and more telling. “It’s part of our expansion plans,” Matthew Johnson, a senior lab manager, tells me during a rare tour of the fortified building. “All the old stuff is coming out.”

PF-4 is being transformed from an experimental laboratory that focuses mostly on research into a facility that mass-produces plutonium “pits,” the grapefruit-sized cores inside every nuclear bomb in America’s arsenal. Los Alamos— the lab synonymous with the dark art of nuclear-weapon development—hasn’t produced a certified pit in over a decade and has never had to produce more than 10 in a single year. But in 2018, Congress passed a law mandating that PF-4 produce 30 pits a year by 2026. Around $5 billion has already been spent to overhaul the cramped, aging facilities. The Biden Administration has pumped $4.6 billion into Los Alamos this fiscal year alone—a 130% budget increase over what the lab received just five years ago. Truckloads of new work stations, lathes, and furnaces are set for installation. Coast-to-coast recruiting efforts are underway to increase the lab’s workforce, which is already at a record 17,273.

Not long ago, such ambitions would have been unthinkable. Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, the U.S. stopped designing, building, and testing new nuclear warheads. Stockpiles were slashed, labs’ budgets cut, and a highly skilled workforce allowed to dwindle. But after a three-decade break from manufacturing nuclear weapons, the U.S. is getting back into the game. Another arms race may be upon us, triggered by China’s growing ambitions and escalating hostilities with Russia, the world’s other nuclear superpower. Since President Biden took office, both nations have wielded their arsenals to threaten adversaries and coerce neighbors. The last remaining nuclear-arms treaty, known as New START, is set to expire in 2026, raising fears about a new era of unchecked expansion. All nine nuclear powers are scrambling to modernize their arsenals and build new weapons.

The effort to restart America’s nuclear-weapons manufacturing program in response represents the biggest test since the Manhattan Project. A wide range of arms-control experts and nuclear watchdogs, as well as a handful of lawmakers, are frantically sounding the alarms, warning of the existential risks of the course that leaders in both parties have taken. Critics say the U.S. is repeating the mistakes of the Cold War by funneling billions of taxpayer dollars into weapons that will hopefully never be used and haven’t been tested in more than a generation. They worry about the potential environmental disasters. Washington is reacting to geopolitical concerns without considering the consequences of restarting our own bomb-making factories, says Greg Mello, executive director at the Los Alamos Study Group, an Albuquerque-based watchdog organization.

“We’re rushing into a new arms race with our eyes wide shut,” Mello says, “forgetting everything that went wrong before.”

At PF-4, they are well past such debates. Lab managers are busy unsealing and combing through decades-old archives to extract the technical and engineering expertise for plutonium pits that has been all but lost in the U.S. To get a sense of how the headlong rush is unfolding, and the risks that come with it, I accompanied Johnson, a tall, balding metallurgist who’s spent 21 years at the lab, as he led a small group of reporters on a rare trip inside the center of PF-4. It took more than a year to receive government approval for the visit to the facility. All plutonium operations are required to pause if outsiders are on the floor. But with a brief work-stoppage in place, we were given a day pass in late June to slip behind the tiers of barbed-wire fences, code-accessed security doors, and legions of armed guards to catch a glimpse of America’s new nuclear age.

Before stepping onto the PF-4 operations floor, we pulled on thick lab coats, cotton shoe-coverings, protective goggles, and personal radiation-detection badges. It’s a windowless, low-slung facility, with a long gray hallway dividing a series of rooms purpose-built for plutonium production. Identity confirmation is required at each door, even though every employee at PF-4 has a Q-level security clearance from the Energy Department, the highest a civilian can hold.

Weapons-grade plutonium has a radioactive half-life of 24,000 years. The level of radioactivity in these rooms, called “hot areas,” is constantly monitored. When you walk into a new chamber, you’re met with the unnerving clicks of a Geiger counter reverberating inside. The personal-safety protocols underline the stakes. One member of our tour had a notebook quarantined after it mistakenly dropped to the floor. Before leaving a room, we had our hands and feet individually checked for contamination. We also were required to take two full body-scans, stepping into different floor-to-ceiling radiation-detection machines, before we left the facility.

Inside each production room, workers stand under bright fluorescent lights by a series of linked stainless-steel work stations called gloveboxes. They place their hands into specialized rubber gloves and peer through leaded-glass windows as they shape the plutonium. An accidental slip of the hand could result in catastrophe. There’s virtually no safe level of human exposure to plutonium if it’s inhaled. Even the smallest speck—a one-thousandth of a gram, hidden to the human eye—could kill. “We have to account for every flake,” Johnson says. The lab has an elaborate air circulation system; the rooms are at a lower pressure than the outside hallways. Each glovebox has a slight vacuum, designed to ensure that if there is a breach, the particles are contained inside the sealed box.

The U.S. no longer manufactures new plutonium, so workers at PF-4 take old pits from retired warheads sent from the Pantex plant in the Texas panhandle, which assembles, disassembles, and stores parts for America’s nuclear arsenal. The pits are recycled through a process that purifies them of radioactive elements, which accumulate over time. To do this, plutonium winds its way from glovebox to glovebox through an overhead trolley system snaking through the complex. Dumbwaiters move it up and down from the trolley. The plutonium is melted, machined, welded, and inspected. Mastering these skills can take up to four years of training and mentorship, Johnson says. Each worker must undergo routine mental and physical health checks throughout the year to ensure they can handle weapon components.

Up to 1,000 employees work inside PF-4 on a given day, but less than 10 can perform the final step of the assembly, which involves welding pieces of cast plutonium together to form a pit. The task must be done by hand, inside a large walk-in glovebox. Workers wear respirators and several layers of personal protective equipment. The pit then undergoes an inspection process: it’s leak-checked and radiographed, like a medical CT scan, to ensure it meets specifications. If it passes, it’s stamped with a small diamond and sent back to Texas, where it will stay until it’s plugged into a new W87-1 warhead, which is still under development, expected to be completed sometime within the next decade.

The W87-1 will be the first 100% newly manufactured nuclear warhead in the U.S. stockpile since the end of the Cold War. Its pit will be encased in plastic explosives designed to detonate with impeccable timing, compressing it, in just a fraction of a second, from the size of a grapefruit into the size of a golf ball. Fission from this first stage of the process spits out neutrons, triggering an atomic chain reaction that generates a massive release of energy—an explosion. The subsequent radiation, pressure, and energy then fuses two types of heavy hydrogen, tritium and deuterium, to form helium. Additional neutrons fire from this process, creating a fission-fusion feedback loop that happens so quickly it appears instantaneous. It culminates with a fireball that reaches into the millions of degrees, followed by a blast that can level buildings for miles around.

Los Alamos has developed 11 nuclear pits this year…

Los Alamos has made 11 development pits so far this year, but none of them are destined for warheads. The first proof-of-concept weaponized pit is slated for completion at the end of 2024, says Robert Webster, Los Alamos’ deputy director for weapons. Webster says he’s confident his team can reach 30 pits per year by 2030. “It could be sooner,” he says, adding that the most important thing is that it’s done right.

“We’re still cleaning up the legacy mess that we made by working the way we did.”

Others are skeptical. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported in January that it’s highly unlikely PF-4 will be able to meet its congressional mandate of building 30 pits annually on the prescribed timetable. Another larger facility, the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, which has never produced a single pit, has been tasked with producing 50 per year by 2030. The challenges of building new facilities and re-configuring existing ones with cutting-edge equipment are compounded by the extreme dangers of radioactive plutonium and waste disposal. All this may result in the federal government spending up to $24 billion before Los Alamos and Savannah River can reach their combined target of 80 pits per year, the report says. And rushing has its risks.

The environmental hazards of producing plutonium pits are well-established. The last time the U.S. made pits on a mass scale was in 1989, at the Rocky Flats site in Colorado. Production at the plant, which churned out about 1,000 pits per year, was shut down following a raid by the FBI and Environmental Protection Agency that discovered serious environmental violations. There was enough radioactive waste on the premises to cover a football field to a depth of 20 ft. Some 62 pounds of plutonium were found caked inside the plant’s air ducts.

Plutonium poses grave danger to anyone who doesn’t have proper protective equipment, and the total human toll of the work performed at Rocky Flats is unknown. Judy Padilla, 76, worked 22 years at Rocky Flats, most of them handling plutonium in gloveboxes. Padilla says she’s horrified that another generation will be manufacturing pits. She developed a host of medical issues that began during her time at the plant, including a tumor that required a mastectomy of her right breast. Her husband Charles, who also worked at the plant, died in 2014 after battling kidney cancer.

Padilla, who attributes both cases to radiation and chemical exposure at Rocky Flats, received $125,000 from the government after Charles died. The Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act, passed at the end of the Clinton Administration, provides funding to former nuclear employees on an individual basis, but Padilla says it’s littered with loopholes that are better designed to deny claimants than help them.

“My advice to younger people doing this work is: Be careful,” she says. “I thought my government would back me up if I got sick and take care of me. That never happened. It sounds really bitter. But yeah, I’m bitter. I consider myself a walking time-bomb.”

The safety record of Los Alamos has always been intensely scrutinized, particularly in the post-Cold War years. “Is There Really a Cowboy Culture of Arrogance at Los Alamos?” ran a Dec. 2004 headline in the trade publication Physics Today. The question followed a series of high-profile lapses at the lab, including a trove of missing classified documents and an incident in which an intern suffered an eye injury from a laser. The biggest blunder arguably came in 2011, when technicians took a photograph of eight ingots of plutonium lined up side-by-side on a work table to impress their bosses. It may have looked cool to them, but putting radioactive rods in close proximity risked triggering a chain reaction that could have produced a fatal burst of radiation, known as Cherenkov radiation, capable of killing anyone in the room. Plutonium pit production ended the following year, and hasn’t restarted until now.

In 2018, Triad National Security was named as the new contractor to run the lab for the U.S. Energy Department. The company has stated that safety is a core pillar of its operations, including pit production. But workers’ missteps continue to be cited by the the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board, which provides independent federal oversight. Jill Hruby, head of the National Nuclear Security Administration, the Energy Department agency that oversees nuclear weapons, wrote a letter in May to Triad for a formal explanation on four “nuclear safety events” that took place between February and July 2021. The incidents included two separate floods, a glovebox breach, and an instance in which an unsafe amount of fissionable material was placed in a dropbox. An investigation attached to the letter noted a “significant lack of attention or carelessness” for worker and public safety.

Mistakes like these only heighten skepticism about how Los Alamos can possibly mass-produce plutonium pits on the appointed schedule without risking the health of its workers and surrounding community. Lab officials recognize that the project will generate unprecedented levels of hazardous waste. The most radioactive waste Los Alamos produces, called transuranic waste, primarily involves contaminated gloves, tools, equipment, and other debris that are typically stuffed into 55-gallon drums stored on site until they can be hauled to an underground facility in southeastern New Mexico. The lab projected the number of drums to spike to 2,000 this year, double the tally of just three years ago, according to a 2021 report delivered to Congress.

“It’s difficult to comprehend the level of contamination, the diversion of amounts of money into something that, in my view, will not improve national security,” says Jay Coghlan, executive director of Nuclear Watch New Mexico, a Santa Fe-based watchdog.

The dangers, of course, stretch far beyond New Mexico. Dread of nuclear annihilation hung over the globe throughout the Cold War. That fear is practically inscribed by history in the creosote-dotted hills around Los Alamos, the birthplace of The Bomb. Located atop a secluded mesa between the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo mountains, its transformation from a high desert outpost into a boomtown began in 1943, when more than 8,000 scientists, soldiers, and other personnel arrived to work for the Manhattan Project’s secret “Site Y” laboratory, under the direction of the theoretical physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer.

The picturesque setting for Oppenheimer’s pursuit of an atomic bomb contributed to the sense of insularity. Outsiders were not welcome. The people who worked and lived at Los Alamos were bound by secrecy and, with few exceptions, unable to leave. To this day, the people on this isolated plateau say they’re “on the hill,” which by default means that everyone else in the world is “off” it. But the ingrained seclusion of Los Alamos isn’t just semantic and geographic. It’s hard to find anyone in the community of 13,000 who doesn’t either work at the lab or have a neighbor, friend, or family member who does. It is a company town where even the street names gesture to its controversial past: Oppenheimer Drive, Trinity Drive, Manhattan Loop.

The lab developed the first atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which killed and maimed hundreds of thousands of Japanese in 1945. Those were crude, comparatively simple devices that produced explosive yields measured in kilotons, or thousands of tons of TNT. In the arms race that ensued over the following decades, weapons designers at Los Alamos came up with ever more lightweight and destructive weapons—some so small that they allowed for a dozen city-busting warheads to fit inside a single ballistic missile’s nose cone. Today’s staged-thermonuclear devices produce explosive yields measured in megatons, or millions of tons of TNT—weapons far more lethal than Oppenheimer’s original. When the U.S. began pursuing such bombs, Oppenheimer discouraged it, calling them a “weapon of genocide.”

Oppenheimer envisioned the A-bomb program as a one-off for a narrow mission. Instead, nuclear bomb-making became a full-fledged American industry. Los Alamos was just one facet of a nationwide nuclear-industrial complex, cranking out weapons components for an arsenal that the U.S. wielded to deter the Soviet Union’s aggression by threatening “massive retaliation” and “mutually assured destruction.” In 1967, around the height of the Cold War, the U.S. nuclear stockpile reached 31,255.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, however, nuclear weapons-production stalled. The number of U.S. sites involved in making warheads was cut in half. President George H.W. Bush declared a self-imposed nuclear-weapons testing moratorium in 1992. The number of warheads in the U.S. stockpile was continually reduced through a series of arms-control treaties with Moscow. Today the nuclear stockpile stands at an estimated 5,244 warheads—an 83% reduction from its Cold War peak.

The reduction brought challenges: if the U.S. could no longer build or design the next world-altering bomb, what could government officials do to retain the expertise of scientists? And how would the ensure the integrity of the arsenal without being able to test the products? Nuclear bombs contain more than 4,000 parts, and most of those parts are now more than 30 years old. Ask yourself: If you left a 1993 Ford Mustang in the barn—a temperature-controlled vault of a barn, but a barn nonetheless—would you feel 100% certain that everything would work properly when you turned the ignition? Oh, and don’t forget that your life may depend on it.

The answer the Energy Department came up with was to harness computer simulations and experiments to evaluate the reliability—and extend the life spans of—America’s nuclear weapons. The most vexing dilemma was assessing plutonium, an element only discovered 80 years ago. To find out how it ages, Los Alamos ran experiments in the early 2000s that found plutonium pits changed over the years in ways that could impact weapons’ performance. But the studies couldn’t provide specifics on when exactly plutonium aged out. At first, scientists concluded the pits should last for 100 years or more. But in 2019, after Congress began pushing for more pits, JASON, the long-time independent scientific advisory group to the U.S. government, urged the Energy Department to reestablish large-scale pit production “as expeditiously as possible to mitigate against potential risks posed by (plutonium) aging on the stockpile.”

The day before my tour of PF-4, I visited the modernistic three-story Municipal Building in Los Alamos to see how the small town was preparing for the coming influx of scientists, technicians, engineers, security guards and support staff. “We’re building as fast as we can,” says Paul Andrus, the community-development director. Roads are being widened. Expansion plans are underway for Atomic City mass transit. Wooden skeletons of condos and housing developments are in the process of getting built in any area they’ll fit.

But finding suitable spots for new construction is a challenge. In addition to the 40-acre lab, Los Alamos is hemmed in by canyons and abuts Bandelier National Monument. The lack of housing is concerning not only because of the incoming workers, but also the teachers, doctors, and other professionals who will be needed alongside them. “We’re just out of space,” says Denise Derkacs, a former lab employee who now serves on the county council. “We would love to help support the lab more, but we just have no more land to build on.” This lack of available space has forced Los Alamos to forge closer ties with communities off the hill. The lab leased two buildings in Santa Fe, located more than 30 miles to the southeast, where it moved hundreds of employees not involved in classified work. The transition, which began in 2021, marked the first time in a half century that the lab had a presence in the city.

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At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.

“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “

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Wang Yi, center, returns to a job he exited at the end of last year. PHOTO: FLORENCE LO/POOL REUTERS/ASSOCIATED PRESS/ Editing by Germán & Co

China’s Foreign Minister Replaced After Unexplained Absence

Qin Gang is removed months after Xi Jinping promoted him to head the Foreign Ministry

TWP By Chun Han Wong,  July 25, 2023 

SINGAPORE—China replaced Foreign Minister Qin Gang, whose mysterious disappearance from the public stage weeks ago sent a wave of uncertainty through the country’s political system.

China hasn’t explained the disappearance of Qin, originally handpicked for the job by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, except to cite vague health issues. At a hastily convened session on Tuesday, the Chinese legislature’s standing committee decided that Wang Yi, the former foreign minister and currently China’s top diplomat, would retake his old post.

The lawmakers didn’t provide a reason for their decision to remove the 57-year-old Qin, who became foreign minister in December. His absence from major diplomatic engagements since late June had fueled speculation inside and outside China about what happened to him and cast a global spotlight on the country’s black-box political system.

China’s Foreign Ministry previously cited health reasons for Qin’s absence from a regional diplomatic meeting in Indonesia this month.

Wang, a 69-year-old member of the Communist Party’s elite 24-member Politburo, previously served as foreign minister from early 2013 until December last year. He became China’s top diplomat when he joined the Politburo in October as its leading foreign-affairs specialist.

State media reports didn’t mention any change to Wang’s existing party roles, suggesting he would occupy both his Politburo and Foreign Ministry positions concurrently—an arrangement that had typically taken place during a transition period between officeholders.

Tuesday’s session of the National People’s Congress standing committee was arranged just a day in advance, an unusually short notice, and outside the typical two-month cycle for regular standing committee sessions. The decision to convene the session came on the same day as a meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo—spurring speculation that lawmakers would confirm personnel changes that Xi and other party leaders approved Monday.

State media readouts from Tuesday’s legislative session didn’t mention any change to Qin’s role as state councilor, a senior government rank in China’s cabinet. It wasn’t clear if Qin would retain his seat on the party’s Central Committee, of which he became a full member in October.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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The logo of Malaysian energy group National Petroleum Limited, commonly known as PETRONAS, is displayed at their booth during the LNG 2023 energy trade show in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, July 12, 2023. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File Photo

Indonesia's big gas projects to proceed after global majors sell stakes

Reuters By Fransiska Nangoy and Bernadette Christina

TANGERANG, Indonesia, July 25 (Reuters) - Shell (SHEL.L) and Chevron's (CVX.N) agreements to sell stakes in major Indonesian gas projects to Pertamina, Petronas and Eni (ENI.MI) will unleash development at the fields, enabling the country to boost its flagging output, the buyers said.

Indonesia has seen declining oil and gas production in recent years due to depleting reserves, and as major new projects face delays due to oil majors' exits.

After signing a deal on Tuesday to buy a 20% stake in the Masela gas block from Shell, Nicke Widyawati, CEO of Indonesian state energy firm Pertamina, told reporters at the Indonesia Petroleum Association conference that a final investment decision on the project would be made in 2026.

Shell had been looking to sell its 35% interest in the project since 2019. Under the agreement signed on Tuesday, Malaysia's Petronas will buy Shell's other 15% stake.

"Our participation underscores the commitment in supporting Indonesia's production target to achieve one million barrels of oil per day and 12 billion standard cubic feet per day of gas by 2030," Petronas group CEO Tan Sri Tengku Muhammad Taufik said.

Abadi LNG, led by Japan's Inpex Corp (1605.T), will use gas from the Masela block to produce 9.5 million metric tons per year of LNG at its peak, which will be shipped from the proposed terminal for domestic industries and overseas customers.

Dwi Soetjipto, the CEO of Indonesian upstream regulator SKK Migas, told Reuters at the same conference that an FID on the project could be reached as early as end-2024.

FAST TRACK

Eni also signed a deal on Tuesday to take over Chevron's stake in the IDD gas project. It said the acquisition will allow it to fast-track development of the resource, in which it was already a partner along with Pertamina and China's Sinopec (600028.SS).

The IDD project involves the Bangka, Gendalo and Gehem gas fields, and its development will integrate the nearby Jangkrik and North Ganal blocks operated by Eni in the Kutai basin.

It will also leverage the Jangkrik infrastructure and the existing Bontang LNG facility, in which Eni holds a stake, Eni said. Chevron confirmed the sale and said it continues to invest in Indonesia.

SKK Migas also said on Tuesday that three to five potential investors from the Middle East and Asia have started assessing the Tuna natural gas project in a possible sale of Russian firm Zarubezhneft's stake.

British firm Harbour Energy (HBR.L) is currently partnering with Zarubezhneft on the gas field, but Zarubezhneft plans to pull out of the project due to a lack of progress following sanctions on Russian companies.

The Tuna field is expected to reach peak production of 115 million standard cubic feet per day in 2027. Gas from the field will be exported to Vietnam from 2026.

Indonesia still has "huge potential" from natural gas resources, its Energy Minister Arifin Tasrif told the conference earlier, and would exploit gas as a bridge fuel in its transition to greener forms of energy.

Big producers have in recent years promoted gas, which has lower emissions than coal when burned, as a transition fuel to smooth out intermittent supply from renewables. The move has been fiercely resisted by environmentalists.

Reporting by Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe; Writing by Florence Tan and Emily Chow; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Christian Schmollinger and Kim Coghill

Corp (1605.T), will use gas from the Masela block to produce 9.5 million metric tons per year of LNG at its peak, which will be shipped from the proposed terminal for domestic industries and overseas customers.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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After a rally this year, the S&P 500 has climbed about 27% from its recent bottom. PHOTO: BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS

Stock Market Shrugs Off Recession Signals as Rally Builds

S&P 500 is trading near its highest level since April 2022 as hopes grow for a soft landing

WSJ By Karen Langley, July 25, 2023 

After a rally this year, the S&P 500 has climbed about 27% from its recent bottom. PHOTO: BRENDAN MCDERMID/REUTERS

Stocks have floated higher as Wall Street dials back its recession forecasts. Some investors aren’t ready to call the all-clear.

They point to worrying economic signals, lofty equity valuations and the possibility that the Federal Reserve continues raising interest rates or keeps them elevated longer than the market anticipates. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has advanced 19% this year even as analysts expect 2023 corporate earnings to barely inch up.

“There’s not a lot of leeway for bad news right now in equities,” said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.

Investors are all but certain that the central bank will raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday. Their focus is on the future: any sign of whether Fed officials expect to lift rates higher from there.

Not long ago, brutally hot inflation and the Fed’s plans to fight it made the prognosis for markets and the economy appear bleak. 

Since the early 1950s, every episode of significant U.S. disinflation, each of which was driven at least partly by Fed tightening, has been accompanied by recession, according to Deutsche Bank research. That has been bad news for stocks: In recessions since the late 1940s, the S&P 500 has fallen a median of 24%, according to the bank’s research. 

Last year the stock market seemed to be signaling such a contraction, with the S&P 500 sliding 25% from its high in January 2022 to its low in October. 

Index performance

Source: FactSet

Many investors expected more of the same at the start of 2023. Instead, stocks roared higher out of the gate. The S&P 500 emerged last month from its longest bear market since the 1940s and has now climbed 27% from its bottom. It is hovering near its highest levels since April 2022.

Inflation has cooled and the economy keeps motoring along. The jobs market remains robust, with the unemployment rate hitting a 53-year low earlier this year before ticking up just slightly. Americans have been spending more at retail businesses. Economists are raising estimates for gross domestic product in the second and third quarters.

The Federal Reserve is central to the U.S. economy today, but its power has been built over decades. Its decisions can lower inflation or spark a recession. WSJ explains how the Fed was formed and the role it plays in the country. Photo Illustration: Annie Zhao

“There’s an actual chance here the Fed could stick the landing,” said Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Capital Management.

Still, there are reasons for concern. The Conference Board said last week that its leading economic index fell for a 15th consecutive month, signaling slowing economic activity ahead. That is the index’s longest streak of declines since a span from the spring of 2007 through early 2009. The U.S. economy fell into a recession in December 2007 and didn’t exit until June 2009. 

The bond market is flashing another warning sign. Normally, longer-term U.S. Treasurys carry higher yields than shorter-term ones, paying investors for the risk that interest rates rise or inflation accelerates. When the longer-term yields are lower, it often suggests that investors think the Fed will need to cut rates to resuscitate the economy. 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note has been lower than that of the 2-year Treasury for more than a year, the longest streak since a span ending in 1980, according to Dow Jones Market Data.  

There have also been glimpses of weakening in the market for bank loans. Loan officers at U.S. banks told the Federal Reserve earlier this year that they had tightened lending standards for households and businesses and also seen lower demand from borrowers. Tighter lending conditions can weigh on economic growth as firms pull back on investment and hiring and consumers have less money at their disposal.

Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust, said he finds the stock market’s rally perplexing given the warning signs from various economic indicators. His firm sold U.S. stocks in April and is holding more cash than usual to protect against a market downturn, he said.  

“When you looked at that data set, you went, hold on here, this kind of looks like a classic slowdown in an economy that eventually slides into some form of contraction,” Olsen said.

Such concerns come as the stock market is boasting rich valuations relative to history. The S&P 500 traded late last week at 19.6 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, up from 16.8 at the end of last year and above a 10-year average of 17.7, according to FactSet. 

Although there is no rule that valuations can’t stay elevated, or climb even higher, some investors worry that the high price tag makes the market more vulnerable to a pullback. 

And while inflation has cooled notably, easing in June to its slowest pace in more than two years, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. Central bank officials may not be satisfied without lifting rates again later this year or keeping them high for an extended period. And that could have unpredictable consequences.

“Everyone’s sort of come to peace with a higher fed-funds rate,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. “I don’t think we’ve quite come to grips with what the implications of staying at that level for a prolonged period of time might mean for the economy and certainly for the markets.”

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Image by Germán & Co

Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion

TWP By Catherine Belton, Shane Harris and Greg Miller, July 25, 2023 

LONDON — When Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, launched his attempted mutiny on the morning of June 24, Vladimir Putin was paralyzed and unable to act decisively, according to Ukrainian and other security officials in Europe. No orders were issued for most of the day, the officials said.

The Russian president had been warned by the Russian security services at least two or three days ahead of time that Prigozhin was preparing a possible rebellion, according to intelligence assessments shared with The Washington Post. Steps were taken to boost security at several strategic facilities, including the Kremlin, where staffing in the presidential guard was increased and more weapons were handed out, but otherwise no actions were taken, these officials said.

“Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers” said one of the European security officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. “Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels … There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react.”

This account of the standoff, corroborated by officials in Western governments, provides the most detailed look at the paralysis and disarray inside the Kremlin during the first hours of the severest challenge to Putin’s 23-year presidency. It is consistent with public comments by CIA Director William J. Burns last week that for much of the 36 hours of the mutiny Russian security services, the military and decision-makers “appeared to be adrift.”

It also appears to expose Putin’s fear of directly countering a renegade warlord who’d developed support within Russia’s security establishment over a decade. Prigozhin had become an integral part of the Kremlin global operations by running troll farms disseminating disinformation in the United States and paramilitary operations in the Middle East and Africa, before officially taking a vanguard position in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told The Post that the intelligence assessments were “nonsense” and shared “by people who have zero information.”

The longtime symbiosis of the two men, who first met in St. Petersburg in the early 1990s, has exposed the weaknesses of Putin’s crony system of management, where rival clans are pitted against each other, and which has been stretched to breaking point by the war.

Who is Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Wagner chief who stirred a crisis in Russia?

The lack of orders from the Kremlin’s top command left local officials to decide for themselves how to act, according to the European security officials, when Prigozhin’s Wagner troops stunned the world by entering the southern Russian city of Rostov in the early hours of June 24, seizing control of the Russian military’s main command center there, and then moved into the city of Voronezh, before heading further north toward Moscow.

Without any clear orders, local military and security chiefs took the decision not to try to stop the heavily armed Wagner troops, the security officials said.

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin leaves the headquarters of the Southern Military District amid the group's pullout from the city of Rostov, Russia, on June 24. (Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters)

Many on the local level could not believe the Wagner rebellion could be happening without some degree of agreement with the Kremlin, the security officials said — despite Putin’s emergency televised address to the nation on the morning of the mutiny in which he vowed tough action to stop the rebels, and despite a warrant issued for Prigozhin’s arrest for “incitement to insurrection” on the eve of his march to Moscow.

“The local authorities did not receive any commands from the leadership,” said a senior Ukrainian security official. “From our point of view this is the biggest sign of the unhealthy situation inside Russia. The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it the same situation at the local level and even worse.”

The intelligence information helps explain what’s been seen as the biggest debacle of Putin’s rule — how Prigozhin’s armed band of fighters, demanding the ouster of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and armed forces chief of staff Valery Gerasimov, were able to proceed to within 120 miles of Moscow without facing resistance, before eventually agreeing to turn around after a deal was brokered with the help of Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president.

The disarray in the Kremlin also reflects a deepening divide inside Russia’s security and military establishment over the conduct of the war in Ukraine, with many including in the upper reaches of the security services and military supporting Prigozhin’s drive to oust Russia’s top military leadership, the European security officials said.

“Some supported Prigozhin and the idea that the leadership needs to be cleaned up, that the fish is rotting from the head,” one of these officials said.

One senior NATO official said some senior figures in Moscow appeared ready to rally behind Prigozhin had he succeeded in achieving his demands. “There seem to have been important people in the power structures … who seem to have even been sort of waiting for this, as if his attempt had been more successful, they would also” have joined the plot, this official said.

Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic tirades blaming corruption and mismanagement by the Russian military command for battlefield setbacks and high casualties in the war against Ukraine had resonated with many sectors of Russian society. Many in the rank and file of the Russian army also wanted Prigozhin to succeed in forcing change at the top of the Russian military, believing that then “it would become easier for them to fight,” this official said.

But others in the security establishment were horrified at the mutiny attempt, and at the Kremlin’s toothless reaction, convinced it was leading Russia toward a period of deep turmoil, officials said.

“There was disarray. You could argue about the depth of it, but there really was lack of agreement,” said a senior member of Russian diplomatic circles. “We heard all these statements. They were not always consistent … For some time, they did not know how to react,” he said. Putin had vowed to crush the rebellion on the morning the rebellion began but by the time he finally emerged in public more than 48 hours later, he said all steps had been taken on his “direct order” to avoid major bloodshed.

Members of the Russian elite said the division over the conduct of the war and its handling by the Russian military leadership, will continue, despite a public relations drive by the Kremlin to demonstrate Putin is in control and the start of a campaign to purge the ranks of the Russian military of critics and Prigozhin’s supporters among Russian ultranationalists.

On Friday Igor Girkin, a controversial former Russian commander in Ukraine who has been vocal in denouncing the Russian military leadership, was arrested. Several high-ranking generals perceived to be close to Prigozhin, including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was often praised by the Wagner leader, have disappeared from public view.

The lack of direction from the Kremlin during the crisis has left Putin significantly weakened, according to his critics. “Putin showed himself to be a person who is not able to make serious, important and quick decisions in critical situations. He just hid,” said Gennady Gudkov, a former colonel in the Russian security services who is now an opposition politician in exile. “This was not understood by most of the Russian population. But it was very well understood by Putin’s elite. He is no longer the guarantor of their security and the preservation of the system.”

“Russia is a country of mafia rules. And Putin made an unforgivable mistake,” said a senior Moscow financier with ties to the Russian intelligence services. “He lost his reputation as the toughest man in town.”

Ukraine is now the most mined country. It will take decades to make safe.

The conflict between Prigozhin and the Russian military leadership had been building up for months, and the possibility of conflict increased sharply when the Russian Defense Ministry decreed June 10 that Wagner fighters had to sign contracts with the ministry from July 1, essentially ending Prigozhin’s control of the mercenary group — and the billions of dollars in government contracts attached to it.

When the security service warnings appeared that Prigozhin could be mounting some kind of rebellion, some in the security establishment believed the preparations could be no more than a bluff to increase pressure and gain more leverage to secure his control of Wagner, one of the European security officials said.

To some degree, if Prigozhin’s mutiny was an attempt to gain leverage, it worked. Putin was apparently forced into compromise with the renegade leader, allowing him to travel around Russia for days after the mutiny, because Prigozhin’s work for the Kremlin was too deeply intertwined with the interests of Putin’s state, according to several of the security officials, and Vladimir Osechkin, an exiled human rights activist who has interviewed several former Wagner fighters. Instead of prosecuting Prigozhin for leading the armed insurrection, Putin agreed to drop the charges. In exchange, Prigozhin halted the march on Moscow, withdrew his men from key military installations and agreed to decamp to Belarus, keeping at least part of Wagner intact.

Russia has deployed private mercenary groups as a shadow arm of the state to protect Kremlin interests, “where the state is without strength or cannot officially act,” according to a report drawn up for a Russian parliamentary roundtable on legalizing the private paramilitary organizations in 2015. The report was obtained by the Dossier Center, an investigative group founded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Putin opponent, and shared with The Post.

“Private paramilitary groups can become effective instruments of state foreign policy,” the report states. “The presence of private military groups in the planet’s ‘hot spots’ will increase Russia’s sphere of influence, win new allies for the country and allow the obtaining of additional interesting intelligence and diplomatic information which ultimately will increase Russia’s weight globally.”

The intertwining of Wagner with the interests of Russian intelligence, with its upper ranks staffed with former members of Russian military intelligence, and its leading role in operations in Syria, Libya and across Africa, where it gained access to extensive mining rights, has meant it was impossible for Putin to swiftly bring the curtain down on Prigozhin’s operations, Osechkin said. Prigozhin “worked for more than 20 years for Putin’s team. He did a lot for their interests in a whole series of countries. He has a huge amount of information” about them, Osechkin said.

“They created a monster for themselves,” one of the European security officials said.

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News round-up, July 24, 2023

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Quote of the day…

'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'

Le Mode by  Op-Ed , Gordon Brown,  former UK prime minister

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Most read…

Gordon Brown: 'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'

Le Mode by  Op-Ed , Gordon Brown,  former UK prime minister

Climate crisis: 'Warming is right in line with early predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding predictions'

InterviewFor climatologist Michael E. Mann, the extreme phenomena affecting the planet are not the result of a sudden acceleration in global warming. But, he warns, without strong action, a runaway effect cannot be ruled out.

Le Monde by Audrey Garric, published yesterday (Paris)

Venezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.

Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.

NYT By Isayen Herrera, Sheyla Urdaneta,  Adriana Loureiro Fernandez and Sheyla Urdaneta, July 23, 2023

Ukraine-Russia war live: Ukrainian drones 'strike near Russian defence ministry

Russia said it thwarted a Ukrainian “terrorist act” on Moscow as two drones hit non-residential buildings, with one crashing near the defence ministry.

The Telegrpah Now

Two Kennedys on covid

TWP Analysis by Dan Diamond with research by McKenzie Beard,  July 21, 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Gordon Brown: Child poverty is growing to ‘horrendous’ levels under Tories and SNP/The Sunday Post/Editing by Germán & Co

Gordon Brown: 'The Spanish Conservatives' capitulation to the far right would reverberate across the continent'

Le Mode by  Op-Ed , Gordon Brown,  former UK prime minister

The former British Prime Minister deplores the Spanish People's Party's plan to ally itself with Vox and its hyper-nationalist, anti-LGBT and anti-immigration program in the event of victory.

Spain's general election Sunday matters not just for the country's future but also for the future of Europe. A defeat for socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would likely propel the extreme right-wing Vox party from back street demagogues to parliamentary power, and if, as is widely expected, Vox and the Popular Party (PP) enter into a coalition government, it will mark the end of Spain's long aversion to far-right politicians, which has endured since the death of Generalissimo Francisco Franco in 1975.

Should Vox become part of Spain's government, its chilling, hyper-nationalist, anti-LGBTQ, anti-feminist, and anti-immigrant agenda would push Europe one step further into a right-wing abyss. The capitulation to Vox by Spanish center-right conservatives, who have traditionally rejected alliances with the far-right but are now desperate to return to power, would reverberate across the continent, particularly given that Spain recently assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union.

This alignment between Spain's conservative and far-right parties has resulted in an election campaign dominated by culture-war issues. Lurid Vox propaganda has demonized immigrants, gays, and feminists, portraying Sánchez and his party as enemies of the state. Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the PP president of Madrid, has labeled her political opponents "communists." Seeking to evoke memories of the anticlerical violence throughout Spain before and during the Spanish Civil War, she even accused the opposition of wanting to burn down Catholic churches.

In reply, Sánchez has characterized the upcoming election, which follows the Socialist Party's poor showing in local and regional elections in May, as an existential battle for the future of Spanish democracy. And now, in the last few days of the campaign, the socialist former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has raised the stakes, claiming that "the center-right no longer exists," only the ultra-right, and that having abandoned the center, PP "has gone off the map." Ayuso has already responded in kind to such attacks: "When they call you a fascist, you know you're doing something right."

Reagan-Thatcher doctrine

In addition to targeting civil rights, Spanish rightists have set their sights on rejecting regional autonomy. For years Vox has proposed banning the Catalan and Basque nationalist parties, and there is a genuine risk that after years of relative calm under Sánchez's leadership, a divided Spain could witness a resurgence of separatist, secessionist movements.

The right's embrace of the culture wars is a deliberate strategy to obscure the threat that their neoliberal economic policies pose to living standards and social equity. The PP's agenda, which is taken straight from the Reagan-Thatcher playbook, seeks to abolish Spain's current wealth tax, slash the personal income tax, privatize the country's utilities, and cut social security. When former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss attempted to implement a similar outdated agenda in 2022, she nearly tanked the British economy.

At the same time, the PP's focus on culture-war issues is aimed at diverting attention from the economic achievements of Sánchez and his coalition as well as his green agenda. Since taking office in 2018, Sánchez's government has made significant strides in reducing high levels of inequality and poverty in Spain. Moreover, Sánchez has successfully brokered an inflation-stabilizing agreement on wages, endorsed by both unions and employers, calling for a 4% wage increase in 2023 and 3% increase in 2024 and 2025, and, currently, the country has the highest growth rate and one of the lowest inflation rates in the eurozone.

If re-elected, Sánchez would focus on housing, which he views as Spain's "great national cause" for the next decade. He has also proposed new health-care guarantees, including maximum waiting periods of 60 days for specialized outpatient consultations and 15 days for psychological care for teenagers and children under the age of 15.

Symbiosis between far-right movements

Spain is far from the only European country where the rise of the extreme right poses a threat. Across the continent, the growing popularity of far-right parties has driven previously moderate parties to embrace extreme positions.

In Germany, the nativist Alternative für Deutschland, now rising in the polls, is pushing the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, further to the right. And in Finland, the ultraconservative Finns Party has formed a coalition government with the center-right, forcing it to pursue tough anti-immigration policies. A similar pattern can be observed in other Western European countries from Sweden to Austria, and it may appear in next year's European Parliament elections. And, of course, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, is further right than any leader the country has had since Benito Mussolini.

The emerging symbiosis between Europe's far-right movements has been supported by wealthy allies in the United States. In September 2022, representatives from 16 European nativist parties, including Poland's ruling Law and Justice, Slovak populists led by former prime minister Robert Fico, and former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša's far-right movement, gathered in Miami for the National Conservatism Conference, where the keynote speaker was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also a Republican presidential candidate and Donald Trump impersonator.

The Florida conference bore a striking resemblance to another far-right summit organized by the same group and held at Rome's Grand Hotel Plaza in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Hoping to establish a far-right alternative to the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, attendees championed nationalism, tradition, and the nuclear family as bulwarks against "globalist" attempts to destroy Europe's countries and their respective cultures. It was during this gathering that Meloni outlined her agenda, which ultimately resonated with Italian voters, for "defending national identity and the very existence of the nation-states as the sole means of safeguarding people's sovereignty and freedom."

Ironically, each member of this unlikely global coalition of anti-globalists claims to speak for their own country's unique cultural heritage and their desire to be free from international entanglements while simultaneously using identical us-versus-them xenophobic rhetoric to stoke nativist fears. It has been 175 years since Karl Marx heralded a specter haunting Europe. Today, however, it is not the specter of communism, as Marx had hoped, but that of populist nationalism. The outcome of Spain's election could highlight the gravity and urgency of the threat.

Gordon Brown, prime minister of the United Kingdom from 2007 to 2010, is the United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education.

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At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.

“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “

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Image by Le Monde/ Editing by Germán & Co

Climate crisis: 'Warming is right in line with early predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding predictions'

“For climatologist Michael E. Mann, the extreme phenomena affecting the planet are not the result of a sudden acceleration in global warming. But, he warns, without strong action, a runaway effect cannot be ruled out.

Le Monde by Audrey Garric, published yesterday (Paris)

Over 50°C in the USA and China, around 45°C in Italy, Spain and Greece, deadly floods in South Korea, raging fires in Canada and unprecedented temperatures in the North Atlantic: The planet is experiencing a series of climate catastrophes. July could be the hottest month on record, after June. Climatologist Michael E. Mann, Director of the Center for Science and the Environment at the University of Pennsylvania (USA), refutes the idea that global warming is accelerating, but warns that we could reach tipping points if we continue to use fossil fuels.

South Korean rescuers search for missing people in an underground tunnel where some 15 cars were trapped by heavy rain in Cheongju on July 16, 2023. STR / AFP

Does the current succession of extremes and records mark a new normal?

As I like to point out, it's worse than a new normal – it's a moving baseline of ever-worsening impacts as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels and generate carbon pollution. These episodes are a reminder that we can not only expect to see records broken, but shattered, if we continue burning fossil fuels and heating up the planet. This year, the El Niño phenomenon, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that can increase global temperatures, is adding to this trend.

Has the climate gone out of control?

This is not the case. It's getting steadily worse and that's bad enough. There's no evidence of runaway feedback process or tipping points that have been crossed. But Earth's long-term history provides examples of where things did spin out of control, often in surprising ways, a reminder that this cannot be ruled out for us if we continue to burn fossil fuels, generate carbon pollution, and warm the planet. We still have time to prevent the worst effects from occurring if we act now.

For scientists like Johan Rockström, head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, we have already exceeded seven of the eight "safe and just" planetary limits, thresholds beyond which humanity would be in peril...

I think there's some misunderstanding in the language. Are we talking about climate tipping points or societal tipping points. These are not the same thing. Whether or not we've exceed 6 planetary limits (I don't think there's any consensus at all that's the case), that's not the same as a climate tipping point. Steady, linear warming could in principle lead to a societal tipping point, because there's a point beyond which the complex system of the economy can no longer function. But there is no evidence that things are spinning out of control. Instead they're getting steadily worse as the planet warms in response to our continued burning of fossil fuels. So yes, there is great urgency. And there's not the slightest consensus about planetary limits.

Are the current impacts of the climate crisis in line with model predictions?

The warming itself [ 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels] is right in line with early climate model predictions. But many of the impacts are exceeding the model predictions. The best example of that is extreme summer weather events – like we are seeing play out in North America, Europe and Asia this summer, from heat waves to wildfires and floods. We can also cite the melting of the ice caps, the shrinking of the Arctic ice pack and rising sea levels.

“Other scientists, such as James Hansen, former director of NASA's main climate science laboratory, are talking about accelerated warming...

I have the utmost respect for Jim. He's been one of the key contributors to our science for decades. But I think he's just incorrect when he claims there's evidence of acceleration of warming. The warming is steady and that's bad enough!

The World Meteorological Organization considers that we are entering "uncharted territory." Do you agree?

It depends on what you mean. There are examples of far greater extremes in Earth history. So in that sense, no. But, over the time span of the emergence of human civilization, are we entering uncharted territory? The answer is almost certainly yes. July will likely be the hottest month this planet has seen in more than 100,000 years.

If we stop emissions immediately, will global warming and its effects stop immediately?

Surface warming stops very soon after emissions reach zero. There is increasing scientific consensus on that point, and the impacts that are tied to surface warming – such as extreme summer weather events – will stabilize when that happens. Some impacts, however, like deep ocean warming, ice shelf collapse and ice sheet destabilization, sea level rise, ocean acidification, could continue on for some time. So no, not all impacts will stop getting worse, and we'll need to focus on adapting to those changes that are inevitable. But much of it will stop getting worse. The bottom line is we've got to stop burning fossil fuels as quickly as possible. I don't think there is any disagreement about that among experts – at least I hope not.

By focusing on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, aren't we forgetting that it's the accumulation of emissions between now and then that counts?

It is absolutely the rate at which emissions fall that matter. Our carbon budget [maximum emissions] for 1.5°C warming is rapidly decreasing. That's the reason the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] talks about needing to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 and reach net zero by mid century, to have a decent change of averting 1.5°C warming. Of course, climate impacts aren't a cliff at 1.5°C. I prefer the analogy of a mine field. The greater the warming, the greater the danger.

What's your view on political action in favor of the climate and on the forthcoming world conference (COP28) to be held in December in Dubai (United Arab Emirates)?

I'm worried about the process being hijacked. In the past, I've counseled others to be supportive of the UN climate negotiation process as it's our only multilateral framework for coordinated global action. And I continue to feel that this framework is essential. But I”m troubled, as are many climate activists, by the way it has been hijacked recently by oil-producing middle east nations that have an awful track record on climate. Just as I'm troubled by the way that Saudi Arabia is trying to reabilitate it's deserved reputation as a ruthless petrostate, so am I concerned of the potential for the COP process to be hijacked by bad actors using it as an opportunity to greenwash their terrible legacy on climate.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Source: NYT/Adriana Loureiro Fernandez

Venezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.

Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.

NYT By Isayen Herrera, Sheyla Urdaneta,  Adriana Loureiro Fernandez and Sheyla Urdaneta, July 23, 2023

Each morning, José Aguilera inspects the leaves of his banana and coffee plants on his farm in eastern Venezuela and calculates how much he can harvest — almost nothing.

Explosive gas flares from nearby oil wells spew an oily, flammable residue on the plants. The leaves burn, dry up and wither.

“There is no poison that can fight the oil,” he said. “When it falls, everything dries up.”

Venezuela’s oil industry, which helped transform the country’s fortunes, has been decimated by mismanagement and several years of U.S. sanctions imposed on the country’s authoritarian government, leaving behind a ravaged economy and a devastated environment.

The state-owned oil company has struggled to maintain minimal production for export to other countries, as well as domestic consumption. But to do so it has sacrificed basic maintenance and relied on increasingly shoddy equipment that has led to a growing environmental toll, environmental activists say.

Mr. Aguilera lives in El Tejero, a town nearly 300 miles east of Caracas, the capital, in an oil-rich region known for towns that never see the darkness of night. Gas flares from oil wells light up at all hours with a roaring thunder, their vibrations causing the walls of rickety houses to crack.

Many residents complain of having respiratory diseases like asthma, which scientists say can be aggravated by emissions from gas flares. Rain brings down an oily film that corrodes car engines, turns white clothes dark and stains notebooks that children carry to school.

And yet, paradoxically, widespread fuel shortages in the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves mean virtually no one in this region has cooking gas at home.

Soon after President Hugo Chávez rose to power in the 1990s with promises to use the country’s oil wealth to lift up the poor, he fired thousands of oil workers, including engineers and geologists, and replaced them with political supporters, took control of foreign-owned oil assets, and neglected safety and environmental standards.

Then, in 2019, the United States accused Mr. Chavez’s successor, President Nicolás Maduro, of election fraud and imposed economic sanctions, including a ban on Venezuelan oil imports, to try to force him from power.

The country’s economy collapsed, helping to fuel a mass exodus of Venezuelans who could not afford to feed their families even as Mr. Maduro has managed to maintain his repressive hold on power.

After grinding nearly to a halt, the oil sector has seen a modest rebound, in part because the Biden administration last year allowed Chevron, the last American company producing oil in Venezuela, to restart operations on a limited basis.

Neighbors playing board games under a sky lit by gas flares near Punta de Mata in eastern Venezuela.

The national oil industry’s travails have been worsened by a corruption investigation into missing oil money that has so far led to dozens of arrests and the resignation of the country’s oil minister.

In eastern Venezuela, rusting refineries burn off methane gases that are part of the fossil fuel industry’s operations and are important drivers of global warming.

Even though Venezuela produces far less oil than it once did, it ranks third in the world in methane emissions per barrel of oil produced, according to the International Energy Agency.

Cabimas, a city about 400 miles northwest of Caracas on the shores of Lake Maracaibo, is another center of regional oil production. There, the state oil company, PDVSA, built hospitals and schools, set up summer camps and provided residents with Christmas toys.

Now oil seeps from deteriorating underwater pipelines in the lake, coating the shores and turning the water a neon green that can be seen from space. Broken pipes float on the surface, and oil drills are rusting and sinking into the water. Birds coated in oil struggle to fly.

The collapse of the oil industry has left Cabimas, once one of the richest communities in Venezuela, in extreme poverty.

Every day at 5 a.m., the three Méndez brothers — Miguel, 16, Diego, 14 and Manuel, 13 — untangle their fishing nets, clean them and row into the polluted waters of Lake Maracaibo, hoping to catch enough shrimp and fish to feed themselves, their parents and their younger sister.

They use gasoline to wash the oil from their skin.

Diego, 14, Manuel, 13, and Miguel Méndez, 16, fishing in Lake Maracaibo, which has been polluted by oil leaking from damaged pipelines.

Children play and bathe in the water, which smells of rotting sea life.

The boys’ father, Nelson Méndez, 58, was once a commercial fisherman, back when the lake was cleaner. He worries about getting sick from eating what his children catch, but he worries more about hunger.

He said he was hired by the state oil company about 10 years ago to help clean a fuel spill in the lake, but the work damaged his vision.

“Everything I worked for in life, I lost because of the oil,” Mr. Méndez said.

The poor maintenance of the fuel production machinery in Lake Maracaibo has led to an increase in oil spills, which have contaminated Cabimas and other communities along its shoreline, according to local organizations focusing on the issue.

The gas flares that burn across parts of Venezuela also point to the enfeeblement of the country’s fossil fuel industry: So much gas spews into the atmosphere because there is not enough functioning equipment to convert it into fuel, experts say.

Venezuela ranks among the worst countries in the world in terms of the volume of gas flares produced by its decrepit fuel operations, according to the World Bank.

Oil staining the waters of Lake Maracaibo.

In a 2021 report, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights expressed deep concern about the state of Venezuela’s oil industry.

“It is imperative that the government effectively implement its environmental regulatory framework on the oil industry,” the report said.

At a U.N. climate change summit last year, Mr. Maduro did not address the environmental damage resulting from his country’s hobbled oil industry.

Instead, he claimed that Venezuela was responsible for less than 0.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and blamed wealthier countries for causing environmental harm. (Experts say that figure is accurate and note that the country’s emissions have decreased as its oil industry has cratered.)

“The Venezuelan people must pay the consequences of an imbalance caused by the world’s leading capitalist economies,” Mr. Maduro said in a speech at the summit.

A top government minister, Josué Alejandro Lorca, said in 2021 that oil spills were “not a big deal because, historically, all oil companies have had them.” He added that the government did not have the resources to address the problem.

The state oil company did not respond to requests for comment.

In Cabimas, David Colina, 46, a fisherman, wears oil-stained orange overalls with the distinctive emblem of the state oil company.

Thirty years ago, he said, he could catch more than 200 pounds of fish. Now he is lucky if he pulls up 25 pounds in his net before he exchanges them for flour or rice from his neighbors.

When the state oil company was functioning better, Mr. Colina said, he would be compensated if an oil spill affected his fishing business. But now, he added, “there is no government here anymore.”

After Chevron announced last year that it would resume some oil production in Venezuela, the state oil company hired divers to inspect the oil pipelines in Lake Maracaibo.

So far, according to interviews with three of those divers, leaking pipelines have yet to be repaired. The divers spoke anonymously because they said they could be punished for revealing internal company information. A Chevron representative declined to comment and referred questions to the Venezuelan state oil company.

Francisco Barrios, 62, who also lives in Cabimas, repaired boats used by the oil industry for more than 20 years, earning enough to feed his five children and pay for their education.

But he became disillusioned, he said, by the industry’s decline, the pollution it was causing, the increasingly shoddy infrastructure and a salary that could not keep up with a rising cost of living.

He said that one of his sons, who was a diver, was killed 12 years ago when an underwater pipe he was repairing exploded.

“I got tired of seeing the destruction,” he said while using gasoline to try to remove oil that had seeped into his yard.

The road leading to Punta de Mata, lit by multiple gas flares. Flares in this part of Venezuela burn day and night.

*Genevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia, and Ronny Rodríguez from El Tejero, Venezuela.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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A member of the security services investigates the damaged building following a reported drone attack in Moscow CREDIT: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS

Ukraine-Russia war live: Ukrainian drones 'strike near Russian defence ministry

Russia said it thwarted a Ukrainian “terrorist act” on Moscow as two drones hit non-residential buildings, with one crashing near the defence ministry.

The Telegrpah Now

The alleged attack in the early hours of Monday came a day after Kyiv vowed to “retaliate” for a Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa.

“A Kyiv regime attempt to carry out a terrorist act using two drones on objects on the territory of the city of Moscow was stopped,” Russia’s defence ministry said.

“Two Ukrainian drones were suppressed and crashed. There are no casualties.”

Russia meanwhile launched fresh attacks on Odesa overnight with a four-hour strike that destroyed a grain hangar, Kyiv said.

Four port workers are believed to have been injured, while tanks for storing “other types of cargo” have also been damaged.

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Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies before the House select subcommittee on the weaponization of the federal government on Thursday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)/Editing by Germán & Co

Two Kennedys on covid

TWP Analysis by Dan Diamond with research by McKenzie Beard,  July 21, 2023 

Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s long-shot campaign for president received its most attention — the wrong kind — after the New York Post published his wild suggestion that covid-19 could be an “ethnically targeted” bioweapon because it “attacks certain races disproportionately.”

“Covid-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese,” RFK Jr. said at a dinner with journalists last week.

The claim has been roundly condemned by virologists, lawmakers and advocacy groups like the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund. It even prompted a rare public rebuke from members of the Kennedy family, including his nephew, former congressman Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.).

And it’s just the latest moment when experts have said RFK Jr.’s assertions were wrong, offensive and possibly dangerous, following his years of high-profile skepticism about a variety of vaccines. 

RFK Jr. has since said he was misinterpreted about the “targeted” virus, but he’s also tried to distance himself from some of the fury.

“There’s no Jewish cabal out there making bioweapons,” RFK Jr. said in a conversation with Washington Post reporters on Thursday afternoon.

Yet he continues to reiterate his claim that the U.S. government is experimenting with bioweapons, despite being unable to point to a specific bioweapon after being pressed by The Post.

Fringe views

RFK Jr. is a Kennedy, but he doesn’t speak for the famous political family — a point hammered home during the pandemic, prompting a New York Times article last year about how RFK Jr.’s vaccine criticism had anguished his relatives.

Take Dec. 13, 2022, when Joe Kennedy and other family members gathered in Boston to honor Anthony Fauci at a dinner at the Edward M. Kennedy Institute — even as RFK Jr. was blasting the longtime infectious-disease doctor in an interview with British television.

Fauci “has transformed NIH from the most prestigious and important scientific research organization on Earth, and turned it into an incubator for pharmaceutical products, with all of these corrupting entanglements with the pharmaceutical industry,” RFK Jr. said on “Dan Wootton Tonight.” 

The longtime vaccine skeptic — who wrote the 2021 book, “The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health” — also has said that if elected president, he could target Fauci.

“People ask me, would I prosecute him? … I’ll look at it, certainly,” RFK Jr. told The Health 202 on Thursday.

He has hinged much of his long-shot campaign around the coronavirus pandemic, trying to capitalize on frustrations about shutdowns, government policies and officials’ efforts to stifle dissent. In his conversation with Post reporters on Thursday, RFK Jr. repeatedly returned to a broader theme around covid: The U.S. vaccination policy failed to prevent many deaths, and no one is questioning why. For instance, he said, look what happened after vaccines became widely available at the end of 2020.

“We’re seeing in 2021 and '22, this huge increase in excess deaths that nobody is asking about. Nobody is explaining, how is that happening?” RFK Jr. said.

Your author countered that excess deaths were higher in the first year of the pandemic than in the year after vaccines were widely available. Andrew Stokes, a Boston University researcher who has studied excess deaths, also emailed the Health 202 on Thursday night to say that his team found that in places where vaccine uptake went up, excess mortality in the second year of the pandemic went down.

“It is impossible to reconcile the exceptionally strong inverse relationship between vaccination and excess mortality with the possibility that the Covid-19 vaccines [have] contributed to the large toll of excess mortality in the second year of the pandemic,” Stokes added.

Faced with repeated questions — and disagreement — the presidential candidate stressed to Post reporters he was “not anti-vaccine” and would be happy to look at clinical studies.

“I’m open to the fact that I’m wrong,” RFK Jr. said. His years of questioning vaccine safety despite persistently being told that he's wrong suggest otherwise.

The younger Kennedy

Joe Kennedy, who spoke on the phone later Thursday, acknowledged that the nation’s response to the pandemic wasn't perfect.

“Did we get everything right? Clearly not,” he said, recounting communication missteps around when to wear masks, whether household objects needed to be scrubbed with cleaning supplies and other miscues that had frustrated Americans.

But the former Democratic congressman — who spent the first year of the pandemic serving as vice chair of the House Energy and Commerce’s oversight panel, which was responsible for probing the federal health agencies — credited policymakers for pursuing those policies “with the best of intentions.” 

And unlike his uncle, he saw no reason to doubt the vaccine process and the officials who worked directly on it.

“The Trump administration legitimately deserves credit for developing and approving a vaccine that would be used to save millions of lives and vaccinate billions of people around the world in record time,” said Joe Kennedy, who currently serves as President Biden’s special envoy to Northern Ireland for economic affairs. He singled Fauci out for special praise, calling him a “hero” for his work on covid but also on other infectious diseases over the years.

“I have no doubt that if our health system had more Dr. Faucis, we would be in a better place, even more than we are,” Joe Kennedy added.

Asked why he decided to publicly distance himself from his uncle this week, the younger Kennedy chose his words carefully. 

“Family is family, and it’s a critically important part of my life. That being said, we have disagreements … this is a big one,” Joe Kennedy said.

“I love my uncle. I think he's wrong on this. And … his views, unfortunately, can have, will have a negative impact on our country, our discourse and our health system. I think I'll leave it there.”

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Two thousand years ago, the Greek philosopher Plato, who was born around 428-427 BCE, offered valuable perspectives on the fundamentals of democratic governance. He emphasized the importance of employing unwavering rationality, or common sense, in conjunction with a deep dedication to solidarity and humanism. These principles play a vital role in establishing a cohesive and balanced society. According to Plato, an open-minded disposition is essential for establishing efficient governance. The key is the ability to make decisions consistent with the socio-economic realities of the environment, which requires leaders to understand the intricacies of society. Politicians should base their decisions on logical reasoning and not give in to short-term, less emotional impulses.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.

Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & Co

Venezuela’s Oil Industry Is Broken. Now It’s Breaking the Environment.

Gas flares and leaking pipelines from Venezuela’s once-booming oil industry, hobbled by U.S. sanctions and mismanagement, are polluting towns and a major lake.

NYT by Isayen Herrera and Sheyla Urdaneta,

Each morning, José Aguilera inspects the leaves of his banana and coffee plants on his farm in eastern Venezuela and calculates how much he can harvest — almost nothing.

Explosive gas flares from nearby oil wells spew an oily, flammable residue on the plants. The leaves burn, dry up and wither.

“There is no poison that can fight the oil,” he said. “When it falls, everything dries up.”

Venezuela’s oil industry, which helped transform the country’s fortunes, has been decimated by mismanagement and several years of U.S. sanctions imposed on the country’s authoritarian government, leaving behind a ravaged economy and a devastated environment.

The state-owned oil company has struggled to maintain minimal production for export to other countries, as well as domestic consumption. But to do so it has sacrificed basic maintenance and relied on increasingly shoddy equipment that has led to a growing environmental toll, environmental activists say.

Mr. Aguilera lives in El Tejero, a town nearly 300 miles east of Caracas, the capital, in an oil-rich region known for towns that never see the darkness of night. Gas flares from oil wells light up at all hours with a roaring thunder, their vibrations causing the walls of rickety houses to crack.

Many residents complain of having respiratory diseases like asthma, which scientists say can be aggravated by emissions from gas flares. Rain brings down an oily film that corrodes car engines, turns white clothes dark and stains notebooks that children carry to school.

José Aguilera Jr. on his father’s farm in eastern Venezuela. The farm is slowly dying because of gas flares from nearby oil wells that coat his banana and coffee plants with oil.

Image

Maicleluz Baez, 27, walking through an area near Lake Maracaibo that is polluted with plastic waste.

And yet, paradoxically, widespread fuel shortages in the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves mean virtually no one in this region has cooking gas at home.

Soon after President Hugo Chávez rose to power in the 1990s with promises to use the country’s oil wealth to lift up the poor, he fired thousands of oil workers, including engineers and geologists, and replaced them with political supporters, took control of foreign-owned oil assets, and neglected safety and environmental standards.

Then, in 2019, the United States accused Mr. Chavez’s successor, President Nicolás Maduro, of election fraud and imposed economic sanctions, including a ban on Venezuelan oil imports, to try to force him from power.

Climate Forward  There’s an ongoing crisis — and tons of news. Our newsletter keeps you up to date. Get it in your inbox.

The country’s economy collapsed, helping to fuel a mass exodus of Venezuelans who could not afford to feed their families even as Mr. Maduro has managed to maintain his repressive hold on power.

After grinding nearly to a halt, the oil sector has seen a modest rebound, in part because the Biden administration last year allowed Chevron, the last American company producing oil in Venezuela, to restart operations on a limited basis.

Neighbors playing board games under a sky lit by gas flares near Punta de Mata in eastern Venezuela.

The national oil industry’s travails have been worsened by a corruption investigation into missing oil money that has so far led to dozens of arrests and the resignation of the country’s oil minister.

In eastern Venezuela, rusting refineries burn off methane gases that are part of the fossil fuel industry’s operations and are important drivers of global warming.

Even though Venezuela produces far less oil than it once did, it ranks third in the world in methane emissions per barrel of oil produced, according to the International Energy Agency.

Cabimas, a city about 400 miles northwest of Caracas on the shores of Lake Maracaibo, is another center of regional oil production. There, the state oil company, PDVSA, built hospitals and schools, set up summer camps and provided residents with Christmas toys.

Now oil seeps from deteriorating underwater pipelines in the lake, coating the shores and turning the water a neon green that can be seen from space. Broken pipes float on the surface, and oil drills are rusting and sinking into the water. Birds coated in oil struggle to fly.

The collapse of the oil industry has left Cabimas, once one of the richest communities in Venezuela, in extreme poverty.

Every day at 5 a.m., the three Méndez brothers — Miguel, 16, Diego, 14 and Manuel, 13 — untangle their fishing nets, clean them and row into the polluted waters of Lake Maracaibo, hoping to catch enough shrimp and fish to feed themselves, their parents and their younger sister.

They use gasoline to wash the oil from their skin.

Image

Diego, 14, Manuel, 13, and Miguel Méndez, 16, fishing in Lake Maracaibo, which has been polluted by oil leaking from damaged pipelines.

Image

Overflowing oil contaminating the soil in Cabimas, Venezuela, along the shoreline of Lake Maracaibo.

Children play and bathe in the water, which smells of rotting sea life.

The boys’ father, Nelson Méndez, 58, was once a commercial fisherman, back when the lake was cleaner. He worries about getting sick from eating what his children catch, but he worries more about hunger.

He said he was hired by the state oil company about 10 years ago to help clean a fuel spill in the lake, but the work damaged his vision.

“Everything I worked for in life, I lost because of the oil,” Mr. Méndez said.

The poor maintenance of the fuel production machinery in Lake Maracaibo has led to an increase in oil spills, which have contaminated Cabimas and other communities along its shoreline, according to local organizations focusing on the issue.

The gas flares that burn across parts of Venezuela also point to the enfeeblement of the country’s fossil fuel industry: So much gas spews into the atmosphere because there is not enough functioning equipment to convert it into fuel, experts say.

Venezuela ranks among the worst countries in the world in terms of the volume of gas flares produced by its decrepit fuel operations, according to the World Bank.

Image

Oil staining the waters of Lake Maracaibo.

Image

Wilmer Parra with a handful of fish that he caught in Lake Maracaibo. Some fishermen say they now catch far fewer fish than they once did.

In a 2021 report, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights expressed deep concern about the state of Venezuela’s oil industry.

“It is imperative that the government effectively implement its environmental regulatory framework on the oil industry,” the report said.

At a U.N. climate change summit last year, Mr. Maduro did not address the environmental damage resulting from his country’s hobbled oil industry.

Instead, he claimed that Venezuela was responsible for less than 0.4 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and blamed wealthier countries for causing environmental harm. (Experts say that figure is accurate and note that the country’s emissions have decreased as its oil industry has cratered.)

“The Venezuelan people must pay the consequences of an imbalance caused by the world’s leading capitalist economies,” Mr. Maduro said in a speech at the summit.

A top government minister, Josué Alejandro Lorca, said in 2021 that oil spills were “not a big deal because, historically, all oil companies have had them.” He added that the government did not have the resources to address the problem.

The state oil company did not respond to requests for comment.

In Cabimas, David Colina, 46, a fisherman, wears oil-stained orange overalls with the distinctive emblem of the state oil company.

Thirty years ago, he said, he could catch more than 200 pounds of fish. Now he is lucky if he pulls up 25 pounds in his net before he exchanges them for flour or rice from his neighbors.

Image

David Colina, right, fishing with a son and a nephew in Lake Maracaibo. He said the state oil company used to compensate him if oil leaks damaged his catch.

Image

Luis Javier, 9, and Luis David, 8, playing on the shores of Lake Maracaibo, which along with oil, has also become filled with algae.

When the state oil company was functioning better, Mr. Colina said, he would be compensated if an oil spill affected his fishing business. But now, he added, “there is no government here anymore.”

After Chevron announced last year that it would resume some oil production in Venezuela, the state oil company hired divers to inspect the oil pipelines in Lake Maracaibo.

So far, according to interviews with three of those divers, leaking pipelines have yet to be repaired. The divers spoke anonymously because they said they could be punished for revealing internal company information. A Chevron representative declined to comment and referred questions to the Venezuelan state oil company.

Francisco Barrios, 62, who also lives in Cabimas, repaired boats used by the oil industry for more than 20 years, earning enough to feed his five children and pay for their education.

But he became disillusioned, he said, by the industry’s decline, the pollution it was causing, the increasingly shoddy infrastructure and a salary that could not keep up with a rising cost of living.

He said that one of his sons, who was a diver, was killed 12 years ago when an underwater pipe he was repairing exploded.

“I got tired of seeing the destruction,” he said while using gasoline to try to remove oil that had seeped into his yard.

Image

The road leading to Punta de Mata, lit by multiple gas flares. Flares in this part of Venezuela burn day and night.

Genevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia, and Ronny Rodríguez from El Tejero, Venezuela.

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Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.

Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & Co

The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023

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“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.

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TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH Collaborate to Simplify Energy Transmission Grid in Germany

In BAYREUTH, Germany and ERLANGEN, Germany on July 11, 2023, the transmission grid operator TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH (Fluence), a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) today sealed their cooperations on two Netzboosters (Grid Boosters) with a contract signing at Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen on July 11, 2023,

This collaboration aims to simplify the energy transmission grid by introducing two Netzboosters, also known as Grid Boosters, powered by Fluence's cutting-edge energy storage technology. The Grid Boosters will utilize Fluence Ultrastack, an advanced energy storage product specifically designed to meet the demanding asset availability requirements of critical infrastructure. By incorporating battery-based energy storage systems, these Grid Boosters will significantly reduce system costs for consumers. How, you might ask? By minimizing the need for interventions in the grid and reducing the necessity for grid expansion measures.

TenneT will strategically integrate the two Grid Boosters into the transmission grid at Audorf Süd in Schleswig-Holstein and Ottenhofen in Bavaria, Germany. This strategic placement will enable TenneT to seamlessly integrate more electricity from renewable energy generation sources. The existing grid can now operate with a higher transmission load, allowing for increased capacity in handling renewable energy.

Mode of Operation of the Grid Booster

As the energy transition gains momentum, there is an increasing imbalance between energy production and consumption. This necessitates the expansion of energy grids to transport power generated in decentralized locations, often across long distances. However, traditional grid expansion alone is not sufficient to overcome the challenges faced by the transmission grid. Innovation is required, and one such concept is the Grid Booster.

Historically, the high-voltage grid in Germany has operated on the n-1 principle, which means that power lines are not fully utilized in order to ensure safe system operation in the event of a power failure. Moving forward, Grid Boosters, among other resources, will fulfill this role by allowing the existing lines to almost reach their full capacity. By doing so, the need for proactive grid interventions is greatly reduced.

TenneT's Grid Boosters are pilot projects outlined in the 2019 grid development plan for electricity. The initial stage involves testing the concept on a smaller scale with two 100 MW/100 MWh energy storage systems at the Audorf Süd and Ottenhofen substations. In the second phase of the grid development plan for 2037/2045, it is projected that the German grid will feature up to 54.5 GW of large energy storage systems by 2045 through scenario C2045. The successful implementation of TenneT's Grid Boosters will lay the foundation for future large-scale projects where storage is utilized as a transmission asset.

Ultimately, these Grid Boosters offer immense potential for secure and flexible grid operation, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. By leveraging innovations like Grid Boosters alongside traditional grid expansion, the challenges of transmitting energy over long distances can be effectively addressed, further facilitating the ongoing energy transition.

The project builds on more than 15 years of energy storage deployments by the Fluence team. Ultrastack was tailored to the specific requirements of TenneT’s Grid Boosters and was developed and tested in Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen. Fluence expects the need for storage solutions to grow rapidly, as the massive expansion of renewable energy sources will increase grid congestion and consequently require more grid reinforcement and relief interventions.

“Fluence, through its advanced product capabilities and extensive energy market experience, is well positioned to be a long-term partner to TSOs in Germany and globally,” said Markus Meyer, Managing Director at Fluence. “TenneT’s Grid Boosters will be the seventh and eighth storage-as-transmission projects Fluence is deploying. Our team is developing the complex applications required for these types of projects in our Erlangen lab and research facility and we continue to invest strongly in our German presence.” 

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News round-up, July 20, 2023

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Innovation, project of the day…

Germany's power grid is experiencing a groundbreaking transformation thanks to the introduction of Fluence's battery-powered energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters." Historically, the German power grid has been a significant focal point and has adhered to the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent blackouts. However, recent advancements in technology have given rise to a pioneering solution called Grid Boosters, which is set to revolutionize the energy sector.

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Most read…

The Biggest Winners in America’s Climate Law: Foreign Companies

U.S. seeks to build domestic supply chains but needs overseas expertise

WSJ By Amrith Ramkumar, and Phred Dvorak, July 20, 2023

Scoop!

Why From Ben & Jerry’s Blammes America For war In Ukraine

Your favorite ice cream mogul is campaigning against countering Vladimir Putin's aggression.

POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, IN BRUSSELS, JULY 20, 2023

Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."

The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023

Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees

Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 

Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees

Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Tesla’s Nevada factory. The U.S. electric-vehicle maker and Japanese battery supplier Panasonic are among the firms benefiting from last year’s climate law. BOB STRONG/REUTERS

WSJ By Amrith Ramkumar, and Phred Dvorak, July 20, 2023

The 2022 climate law unleashed a torrent of government subsidies to help the U.S. build clean-energy industries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are foreign companies.

The Inflation Reduction Act has spurred nearly $110 billion in U.S. clean-energy projects since it passed almost a year ago, a Wall Street Journal analysis shows. Companies based overseas, largely from South Korea, Japan and China, are involved in projects accounting for more than 60% of that spending. Fifteen of the 20 largest such investments, nearly all in battery factories, involve foreign businesses, the Journal’s analysis shows. 

These overseas manufacturers will be able to claim billions of dollars in tax credits, making them among the biggest winners from the climate law. The credits are often tied to production volume, rewarding the largest investors. 

Japan’s Panasonic, one of the few companies to publicly estimate the impact of the law, could earn more than $2 billion in tax credits a year based on the capacity of battery plants it is operating or building in Nevada and Kansas. The company, which supplies batteries to electric-vehicle maker Tesla, is considering a third factory in the U.S. that would lift that total. 

The climate law is designed to build up domestic supply chains for green-energy industries, but the reality is that the technology for building batteries and renewable-energy equipment resides overseas. The incentives are leading these companies to invest in the U.S., often alongside domestic businesses. 

“It’s a testament to the fact that we still live in a globalized economy,” said Aniket Shah, head of environmental, social and corporate governance—or ESG—strategy at investment bank Jefferies. “You can’t just out of nowhere put up borders and say, ‘It has to be made in America by American companies.’ ”

What’s the best way for the U.S. to build clean-energy industries? Join the conversation below.

The Journal looked at roughly 210 clean-energy projects and company initiatives spurred by the law, including projects tracked by industry groups American Clean Power and E2 (Environmental Entrepreneurs); announcements from companies and state and local governments; and media reports. Of those, about 140 disclosed investment amounts totaling roughly $110 billion. 

Projects were characterized as either wholly U.S. ventures or foreign if overseas companies are contributing significant investment or technology. Renewable-power facilities and projects already in the works before the law passed were excluded. 

Forecasters estimate the climate law could unleash some $3 trillion in total clean-energy investments over the next decade. U.S. companies are also investing heavily, including Tesla, solar-panel maker First Solar and hydrogen producer Air Products and Chemicals.

Full domestic supply chains for batteries or solar panels are still years away because foreign companies dominate nearly every step in the process, from raw materials to sophisticated parts. 

The large investments by overseas businesses have generally been welcomed by U.S. communities, many of which have benefited for decades from spending and jobs created by foreign automakers and other companies. But some investments from Chinese companies have fueled a backlash as tensions between the two countries escalate. 

At least 10 of the projects representing nearly $8 billion in investments included in the Journal’s analysis involve companies either based in China or with substantial ties to China through their core operations or large investors. 

Some projects are facing resistance, including two in Michigan: a $3.5 billion battery factory that Ford is building with technology and expertise from China’s CATL; and a $2.4 billion battery-component factory from China-based Gotion. Ford is keeping 100% ownership of the battery factory—in part to sidestep the issue of public funds flowing to CATL, according to a person with knowledge of the deal. Ford is licensing the battery-making know-how and services from CATL, the companies said.

But China hawks say the payments Ford makes to CATL mean the Chinese company reap indirect benefits from government support. 

“What we’re seeing is foreign policy conflict with climate policy and trade policy,” Shah said. “We’re going to have to decide as a country what matters more: our enmity with China or our desire to decarbonize quickly.”

Microvast, a startup that was planning to build a more than $500 million battery-component plant in Kentucky, was named as a potential recipient of a $200 million grant from the Energy Department last year. The department later rejected the application. The move followed criticism from Republicans about the company’s ties to China, which include a China subsidiary that accounts for more than 60% of its revenue. 

The large electric -car and battery plant- investment announced  after climate’s law passage

The Energy Department didn’t give a reason for withdrawing the grant. The department takes a number of factors into account when evaluating such projects, including technology risks and the potential for foreign influence, a spokeswoman said.

Microvast, based in Stafford, Texas, says it is a U.S. company and that Chief Executive Yang Wu is an American citizen. The company recently scrapped plans for the Kentucky plant. 

“We must be assured that these taxpayer dollars are not being funneled to the Chinese,” said Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R, Wash.), chair of the House of Representatives committee on energy and commerce, during a June hearing.

Microvast is committed to its goals of investing in the U.S. through other facilities, a spokeswoman said.

The issue is expected to come to a head when the Treasury Department completes rules for electric-car tax credits. The department has proposed that cars using battery materials that were produced by a “foreign entity of concern” such as a Chinese company wouldn’t qualify for tax credits beginning in 2025. 

Many expect Treasury to use a loose standard so that some cars qualify, potentially fueling criticism from some politicians who crafted the climate law such as West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), who has argued more lenient criteria go against the intent of the Inflation Reduction Act. Treasury is monitoring shifting markets and supply chains while making rules that advance the law’s goals, a spokeswoman said. 

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At the Energy Summit 2923 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Edwin De los Santos, President of AES DOMINICANA, emphasized the company's strong commitment to global environmental preservation.

“The relationship between energy and development is symbiotic and interdependent. “

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Illustrations by hitandrun for POLITICO

Scoop!

Why From Ben & Jerry’s Blammes America For war In Ukraine

Your favorite ice cream mogul is campaigning against countering Vladimir Putin's aggression.

POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, IN BRUSSELS, JULY 20, 2023

Ben Cohen wasn’t talking about ice cream. He was talking about American militarism.

At 72, the co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream is bald and bespectacled. He looks fit, cherubic even, but when he got going on what it was like to grow up during the Cold War, his tone became less playful and more assertive — almost defiant. 

“I had this image of these two countries facing each other, and each one had this huge pile of shiny, state-of-the-art weapons in front of them,” he said, his arms waving above his head. “And behind them are the people in their countries that are suffering from lack of health care, not enough to eat, not enough housing.”

“It’s just crazy,” he added. “Approaching relationships with other countries based on threats of annihilating them, it’s just a pretty stupid way to go.”

It wasn’t a new subject for the famously socially conscious ice cream mogul; Cohen has been leading a crusade against what he sees as Washington’s bellicosity for decades. It’s just that with the war in Ukraine, his position has taken on a new — morally questionable — relevance.

Cohen, who no longer sits on the board of Ben & Jerry’s, isn’t just one of the most successful marketers of the last century. He’s a leading figure in a small but vocal part of the American left that has stood steadfast in opposition to the United States’ involvement in the war in Ukraine.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin sent tanks rolling on Kyiv, Cohen didn’t focus his ire on the Kremlin; a group he funds published a full-page ad in the New York Times blaming the act of aggression on “deliberate provocations” by the U.S. and NATO.

Following months of Russian missile strikes on residential apartment blocks, and after evidence of street executions by Russian troops in the Ukrainian city of Bucha, he funded a 2022 journalism prize that praised its winner for reporting on “Washington’s true objectives in the Ukraine war, such as urging regime change in Russia.”

In May, Cohen tweeted approvingly of an op-ed by the academic Jeffrey Sachs that argued “the war in Ukraine was provoked” and called for “negotiations based on Ukraine’s neutrality and NATO non-enlargement.”

I set up a video call with Cohen not because I can’t sympathize with his mistrust of U.S. adventurism, nor because I couldn’t follow the argument that U.S. foreign policy spurred Russia to attack. I called to try to understand how he has maintained his stance even as the Kremlin abducts children, tortures and kills Ukrainians and sends thousands of Russian troops to their deaths in human wave attacks.

It’s one thing to warn of NATO expansion in peacetime, or to call for a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukrainian citizens safe from further aggression. It’s another to ignore one party’s atrocities and agitate for an outcome that would almost certainly leave millions of people at the mercy of a regime that has demonstrated callousness and cruelty.

Given the scale of Russia’s brutality in Ukraine, I wanted to understand: How does one justify focusing one’s energies on stopping the efforts to bring it to a halt?

Masters of war

Cohen’s political awakening took place against the background of the Cold War and the political upheaval caused by Washington’s involvement in Vietnam.

He was 11 during the Cuban missile crisis that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. Part of the reason he enrolled in college was to avoid being drafted and sent to the jungle to fight the Viet Cong.

When I asked how he first became interested in politics, he cited Bob Dylan’s 1963 protest song “Masters of War,” which takes aim at the political leaders and weapons makers who benefit from conflicts and culminates with the singer standing over their graves until he’s sure they’re dead.

“That was kind of a revelation to me,” Cohen said. Behind him, the sun filtered past a cardboard Ben & Jerry’s sign propped against a window. “I hadn’t understood that, you know, there were these masters of war — essentially I guess what we would now call the military-industrial-congressional complex — that profit from war.”

Cohen saw people from his high school get drafted and never come back from a war that “wasn’t justified.” As he graduated in the summer of 1969, around half a million U.S. troops were stationed in ‘Nam. Later that year, hundreds of thousands of protesters marched on Washington, D.C. to demand peace.

It was only much later, while doing “a lot of research” into the “tradeoffs between military spending and spending for human needs,” that Cohen came across a 1953 speech by Dwight D. Eisenhower, which foreshadowed the U.S. president’s 1961 farewell address in which he coined the phrase “military-industrial complex.”

A Republican president who had served as the supreme allied commander in Europe during World War II, Eisenhower warned against tumbling into an arms race. “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed,” he said.

“That is a foundational thing for me, very inspiring for me, and captures the essence of what I believe,” Cohen said. 

“If we weren’t wasting all of our money on preparing to kill people, we would actually be able to save and help a lot of people,” he added with a chuckle. “That goes for how we approach the world internationally as well,” he added — including the war in Ukraine. 

Pierre Ferrari, a former Ben & Jerry’s board member who was with the company from 1997 to 2020, said Cohen’s view of the world was shaped by the events of his youth.

“We were brought up at a time when the military, the government was just completely out of control,” he said. “We’re both children of the sixties, the Vietnam War and the new futility of war and the way war is used by the military-industrial complex and politics,” Ferrari added, pointing to the peace symbol he wore around his neck.

Jeff Furman, who has known Cohen for nearly 50 years and once served as Ben & Jerry’s in-house legal counsel, acknowledged that his generation’s views on Ukraine were informed by America’s misadventures in Vietnam.

“There’s a history of why this war is happening that’s a little bit more complex than who Putin is,” he said. “When you’ve been misled so many times in the past, you have to take this into consideration when you think about it, and really, really try to know what’s happening.”

Ice-cold activism

Politics has been a part of the Ben & Jerry’s brand since Cohen and his partner Jerry Greenfield started selling ice cream out of an abandoned gas station in 1978.

The company’s look and ethos were pure 1960s; they named one of their early flavors, Cherry Garcia, after the lead guitarist of the Grateful Dead, Jerry Garcia, whose psychedelic riffs formed the soundtrack of the hippy counterculture.

Social justice was one of the duo’s secret ingredients. For the first-year anniversary of the gas station shop’s opening, they gave away free ice cream for a day. On the flyers printed to promote the event was a quote from Cohen: “Business has a responsibility to give back to the community from which it draws its support.”

In 1985, after the company went public, they used some of the shares to endow a foundation working for progressive social change and committed Ben & Jerry’s to spend 7.5 percent of its pretax profits on philanthropy.

In the early years, the company instituted a five-to-one cap on the ratio between the salary of the highest-earning executive and its lowest-paid worker, dropping it only when Cohen was about to step down as CEO in the mid-1990s and they were struggling to find a successor willing to work for what they were offering.

Most companies try to separate politics and business. Cohen and Greenfield cheerfully mixed them up and served them in a tub of creamy deliciousness (the company’s rich, fatty flavors were in part driven by Cohen’s sinus problems, which dulls his taste).

In 1988, Cohen founded 1% for Peace, a nonprofit organization seeking to “redirect one percent of the national defense budget to fund peace-promoting activities and projects.” The project was funded in part through sales of a vanilla and dark-chocolate popsicle they called the Peace Pop.

It was around this time that Cohen opened Ben & Jerry’s in Russia, as “an effort to build a bridge between Communism and capitalism with locally produced Cherry Garcia,” according to a write-up in the New York Times. After years of planning, the outlet opened in the northwestern city of Petrozavodsk in 1992. (The company shut the shop down five years later to prioritize growth in the U.S., and also because of the involvement of local mobsters, said Furman, who was involved in the project.)

Even after Ben & Jerry’s was bought by Unilever in 2000, there were few progressive causes the company wasn’t eager to wade into with a campaign or a fancy new flavor.

The ice cream maker has marketed “Rainforest Crunch” in defense of the Amazon forest, sold “Empower Mint” to combat voter suppression, promoted “Pecan Resist” in opposition to then-U.S. President Donald Trump and launched “Change the Whirled” in partnership with Colin Kaepernick, the American football quarterback whose sports career ended after he started taking a knee during the national anthem in protest of police brutality.

More recently, however, the relationship between Cohen, Greenfield and Unilever has been rockier. In 2021, Ben & Jerry’s announced it would stop doing business in the Palestinian territories. Cohen and Greenfield, who are Jewish, defended the company’s decision in an op-ed in the New York Times.

After the move sparked political backlash, Unilever transferred its license to a local producer, only to be sued by Ben & Jerry’s. In December 2022, Unilever announced in a one-sentence statement that its litigation with its subsidiary “has been resolved.” Ben & Jerry’s ice cream continues to be sold throughout Israel and the West Bank, according to a Unilever spokesperson.

Cohen himself is no stranger to activism: Earlier this month, he was arrested and detained for a few hours for taking part in a sit-in in front of the U.S. Department of Justice, where he was protesting the prosecution of the activist and WikiLeaks publisher Julian Assange.

Unilever declined to comment on Cohen’s views. “Ben Cohen no longer has an operational role in Ben & Jerry’s, and his comments are made in a personal capacity,” a spokesperson said.

Ben & Jerry’s did not respond to a request for comment.

The world according to Ben

For Cohen, the war in Ukraine wasn’t just a tragedy. It was, in a sense, a vindication. In 1998, a group he created called Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities published a full-page ad in the New York Times titled “Hey, let’s scare the Russians.”

The target of the ad was a proposal to expand NATO “toward Russia’s very borders,” with the inclusion of Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. Doing so, the ad asserted, would provide Russians with “the same feeling of peace and security Americans would have if Russia were in a military alliance with Canada and Mexico, armed to the teeth.”

Cohen is by no means alone in this view of recent history. The American scholar John Mearsheimer, a prominent expert in international relations, has argued that the “trouble over Ukraine” started after the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest when the alliance opened the door to membership for Ukraine and Georgia.

In the U.S., this point has been echoed by progressive outlets and thinkers, such as Jeffrey Sachs, the linguist Noam Chomsky, or most recently by the American philosopher, activist and longest-of-long-shots, third-party presidential candidate Cornel West.

“We told them after they disbanded the Warsaw Pact that we could not expand NATO, not one inch. And we did that, we lied,” said Dennis Fritz, a retired U.S. Air Force official and the head of the Eisenhower Media Network — which describes itself as a group of “National Security Veteran experts, who’ve been there, done that and have an independent, alternative story to tell.” 

It was Fritz’s organization that argued in a May 2023 ad in the New York Times that although the “immediate cause” of the “disastrous” war in Ukraine was Russia’s invasion, “the plans and actions to expand NATO to Russia’s borders served to provoke Russian fears.” 

The ad noted that American foreign policy heavyweights, including Robert Gates and Henry Kissinger, had warned of the dangers of NATO expansion. “Why did the U.S. persist in expanding NATO despite such warnings?” it asked. “Profit from weapons sales was a major factor.”

When I spoke to Cohen, the group’s primary donor, according to Fritz, he echoed the ad’s key points, saying U.S. arms manufacturers saw NATO’s expansion as a “financial bonanza.”

“In the end, money won,” he said with a resigned tone. “And today, not only are they providing weapons to all the new NATO countries, but they’re providing weapons to Ukraine.”

I told Cohen I could understand his opposition to the war and follow his critique of U.S. foreign policy, but I couldn’t grasp how he could take a position that put him in the same corner as a government that is bombing civilians. He refused to be drawn in.

“I’m not supporting Russia, I’m not supporting Ukraine,” he said. “I’m supporting negotiations to end the war instead of providing more weapons to continue the war.” 

The Grayzone

Itried to get a better answer when I spoke to Aaron Maté, the Canadian-born journalist who won the award for “defense reporting and analysis” that Cohen was instrumental in funding.

Named after the late Pierre Sprey, a defense analyst who campaigned against the development of F-35 fighter jets as overly complex and expensive, the award recognized Maté’s “continued work dissecting establishment propaganda on issues such as Russian interference in U.S. politics, or the war in Syria.”

Maté, who was photographed with Cohen’s arm around his shoulders at the awards ceremony in March, writes for the Grayzone, a far-left website that has acquired a reputation for publishing stories backing the narratives of authoritarian regimes like Putin’s Russia or Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. His reports deny the use of chemical weapons against civilians in Syria, and he has briefed the U.N. Security Council at Moscow’s invitation.

When I spoke to Maté, he was friendly but guarded. (The Pierre Sprey award noted that “his empiricist reporting give the lie to the charge of ‘disinformation’ routinely leveled by those whose nostrums he challenges.”)

He was happy however to walk me through his claims that, based on statements by U.S. officials since the start of the war, Washington is using Kyiv to wage a “proxy war” against Moscow. Much of his information, he said, came from Western journalism. “I point out examples where, buried at the bottom of articles, sometimes the truth is admitted,” he explained.

He declined to be described as pro-Putin. “That kind of ‘guilt-by-association’ reasoning is not serious thinking,” he said. “It’s not how adults think about things.” When I asked if he believed that Russia had committed war crimes in Ukraine, he answered: “I’m sure they have. I’ve never heard of a war where war crimes are not committed.”

Still, he said, the U.S. was responsible for “prolonging” the war and “sabotaging the diplomacy that could have ended it.”

‘Come to Ukraine’

The best answer I got to my question came not from Cohen or others in his circle but from a fellow traveler who hasn’t chosen to follow critics of NATO on their latest journey.

A self-described “radical anti-imperialist,” Gilbert Achcar is a professor of development studies and international relations at SOAS University of London. He has described the expansion of NATO in the 1990s as a decision that “laid the ground for a new cold war” pitting the West against Russia and China.

But while he sees the war in Ukraine as the latest chapter in this showdown, he has warned against calls for a rush to the negotiating table. Instead, he has advocated for the complete withdrawal of Russia from Ukraine and “the delivery of defensive weapons to the victims of aggression with no strings attached.”

“To give those who are fighting a just war the means to fight against a much more powerful aggressor is an elementary internationalist duty,” he wrote three days after Russia launched its attack on Kyiv, comparing the invasion to the U.S.’s intervention in Vietnam. 

Achcar said he understood the conclusions being drawn by people like Cohen about Washington’s interventions in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. But, he said, “it leads a lot of people on the left into … [a] knee-jerk opposition to anything the United States does.” 

What they fail to account for, however, is the Ukrainian people.

“In a way, part of the Western left is ethnocentric,” said Achcar, who was born in Senegal and grew up in Lebanon. “They look at the whole world just by their opposition to their own government and therefore forget about other people’s rights.”

His point was echoed in the last conversation I had when researching this article, with Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former economy minister.

“It doesn’t really matter who promised what to whom in the 1990s,” Mylovanov said. “What matters is that there was Mariupol and Bucha, where tens of thousands of people were killed.”

Mylovanov taught economics at the University of Pittsburgh until he returned to Ukraine four days before Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Things like war are difficult to understand unless you experience them,” he said. “This is very easy to get confused when you are sitting, you know, somewhere far from the facts and you have surrounded yourself by an echo chamber of people and sources that you agree with.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.

Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & Co

Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."

The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023

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“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.

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TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH Collaborate to Simplify Energy Transmission Grid in Germany

In BAYREUTH, Germany and ERLANGEN, Germany on July 11, 2023, the transmission grid operator TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH (Fluence), a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) today sealed their cooperations on two Netzboosters (Grid Boosters) with a contract signing at Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen on July 11, 2023,

This collaboration aims to simplify the energy transmission grid by introducing two Netzboosters, also known as Grid Boosters, powered by Fluence's cutting-edge energy storage technology. The Grid Boosters will utilize Fluence Ultrastack, an advanced energy storage product specifically designed to meet the demanding asset availability requirements of critical infrastructure. By incorporating battery-based energy storage systems, these Grid Boosters will significantly reduce system costs for consumers. How, you might ask? By minimizing the need for interventions in the grid and reducing the necessity for grid expansion measures.

TenneT will strategically integrate the two Grid Boosters into the transmission grid at Audorf Süd in Schleswig-Holstein and Ottenhofen in Bavaria, Germany. This strategic placement will enable TenneT to seamlessly integrate more electricity from renewable energy generation sources. The existing grid can now operate with a higher transmission load, allowing for increased capacity in handling renewable energy.

Mode of Operation of the Grid Booster

As the energy transition gains momentum, there is an increasing imbalance between energy production and consumption. This necessitates the expansion of energy grids to transport power generated in decentralized locations, often across long distances. However, traditional grid expansion alone is not sufficient to overcome the challenges faced by the transmission grid. Innovation is required, and one such concept is the Grid Booster.

Historically, the high-voltage grid in Germany has operated on the n-1 principle, which means that power lines are not fully utilized in order to ensure safe system operation in the event of a power failure. Moving forward, Grid Boosters, among other resources, will fulfill this role by allowing the existing lines to almost reach their full capacity. By doing so, the need for proactive grid interventions is greatly reduced.

TenneT's Grid Boosters are pilot projects outlined in the 2019 grid development plan for electricity. The initial stage involves testing the concept on a smaller scale with two 100 MW/100 MWh energy storage systems at the Audorf Süd and Ottenhofen substations. In the second phase of the grid development plan for 2037/2045, it is projected that the German grid will feature up to 54.5 GW of large energy storage systems by 2045 through scenario C2045. The successful implementation of TenneT's Grid Boosters will lay the foundation for future large-scale projects where storage is utilized as a transmission asset.

Ultimately, these Grid Boosters offer immense potential for secure and flexible grid operation, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. By leveraging innovations like Grid Boosters alongside traditional grid expansion, the challenges of transmitting energy over long distances can be effectively addressed, further facilitating the ongoing energy transition.

The project builds on more than 15 years of energy storage deployments by the Fluence team. Ultrastack was tailored to the specific requirements of TenneT’s Grid Boosters and was developed and tested in Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen. Fluence expects the need for storage solutions to grow rapidly, as the massive expansion of renewable energy sources will increase grid congestion and consequently require more grid reinforcement and relief interventions.

“Fluence, through its advanced product capabilities and extensive energy market experience, is well positioned to be a long-term partner to TSOs in Germany and globally,” said Markus Meyer, Managing Director at Fluence. “TenneT’s Grid Boosters will be the seventh and eighth storage-as-transmission projects Fluence is deploying. Our team is developing the complex applications required for these types of projects in our Erlangen lab and research facility and we continue to invest strongly in our German presence.” 

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Source: Media/Editing by Germán & Co

Companies Requiring Full-Time In-Office Are Struggling to Recruit New Employees

Flexibility Over Rigidity: The Growing Proof

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS, JULY 18, 2023 

The beginning of 2023 brought the end of some remote-work policies as Disney, Starbucks, and Activision Blizzard all said they would require employees to come into the office more frequently.

Employees complained, and there was some anecdotal evidence that in-office mandates were costing those and other companies good workers, who voted with their feet and went elsewhere.

Now, the proof is getting stronger that a lack of flexibility can hurt in the long term. Companies with flexible work policies are growing more quickly than those that require people to be in the office full-time, according to The Flex Index, released July 18, which collects office requirements on more than 4,500 companies with 30,000 locations and that employ more than 100 million people globally.

Specifically, in the last year, companies—regardless of their size—that are fully flexible added jobs at more than twice the rate of companies that were full-time in office.

“It seems pretty clear that the companies that are full time in-office are having a harder time attracting talent than the companies that offer some level of flexibility,” says Rob Sadow, CEO and co-founder of Scoop, the technology company that publishes the report.

Even companies that offer some level of flexibility, whether it be two or three days working from home, have grown more quickly than those that require full-time in-office. Among companies that have between 500 and 5,000 employees, for example, structured hybrid companies (i.e., that require employees to come in on some specific days, but not on others) grew headcount 4.6% over the year, while fully flexible companies of that size grew 4.5%. Full-time in-office companies of that size grew only 2.1%, by comparison.

But there’s a limit to what kind of hybrid arrangement employees seem willing to commit to. Companies that require 1-3 days in the office grew much faster than those that required four or five, the report found.

“Once you start getting closer to full-time in office, requiring four or five days, I think there’s a bright line starting to emerge for employees and for your ability to attract talent,” Sadow says.

Of course, headcount growth is not necessarily a proxy for a company’s financial health. But in this economy, with an extremely low unemployment rate and some industries still reporting wars over talent, the companies that are hiring are typically the ones growing revenue, Sadow says.

Atlassian is one company that has committed to being fully flexible. In August 2020, it announced its Team Anywhere policy, which allows employees to decide if they want to be in-office or not. Since then, the company has more than doubled in headcount, from 4,907 to 11,067. (Atlassian also laid off 500 employees in March because of the “difficult macroeconomic environment.”) “We’re doing [remote work] unequivocally and we’re winning faster than everybody else,” co-CEO Scott Farquhar told me recently. Atlassian still has offices, but it allows employees to decide when (and whether) they want to go in. About half of the company’s new hires live more than two hours from an office, which means they were in locations that Atlassian previously wouldn’t have been able to hire from. The company has also been able to increase diversity because it can hire people who live outside major cities; previously, its biggest U.S. office and headquarters was in the San Francisco Bay Area.

“Operating beyond the physical footprints of our offices means we can hire people we previously couldn’t,” Farquhar says, including underrepresented groups that prefer or need to work from home or a location where Atlassian doesn’t have offices. “Now we can hire them and provide a career that was previously unattainable because we’ve removed the restraints of physical location.” For instance, Atlassian struggled to hire Black talent in the San Francisco Bay Area but has found some success hiring Black talent in Atlanta, he says. In 2022, 5.4% of the people Atlassian hired were Black people based in the U.S., up from 2.4% in 2020. Similarly, 37.9% of the people Atlassian hired were women in 2022, up from 30.7% in 2020.

The company has found that flexibility allows people to move closer to family or to more affordable cities; many Atlassians who had been based in San Francisco moved to Seattle after it launched the Team Anywhere policy. The policy has also increased the number of disabled and veteran workers the company hired, since veterans tend to be less likely to live in the country’s most populous cities and disabled workers sometimes struggle with a commute or being required to sit at a desk all day.

Of course, allowing workers to be fully remote has its downsides. A study published earlier in July found that fully remote workers are about 10% less productive than workers who are in the office full-time. Fully remote workers can have trouble motivating themselves, the research suggested, and are sometimes more distracted at meetings because they are multi-tasking. That said, the same research shows that hybrid work has no association with lower productivity.

Farquhar, of Atlassian, says that the company has experimented with ways to keep productivity high and keep people connected, even if they’re rarely in an office. The company leans on “intentional togetherness,” which essentially means planning times where groups of workers are together in-person to socialize. Atlassian has found that there’s a spike in connectedness to the company after these offsites, and that fades after three or four months, by which time the company holds another offsite.

Veeva Systems is another company that decided to embrace remote work during the pandemic; the life sciences company announced a “Work Anywhere” policy that allows people to decide whether to work at home or in an office. The policy boosted recruiting, says chief people officer Vivian Welsh. Between July 2020 and April 2023, Veeva increased its headcount by 71%, and now has employees in 48 states (with New Mexico and North Dakota as the exceptions). “As some other companies in the industry have changed their policies” to require return to office, Welsh says, “we’ve noticed an increase in interest.”

Veeva also has policies aimed at keeping remote workers engaged; it has offsites of whole departments once a year, and “coworking weeks” in which the company sometimes pays for small teams to work together in a single office. It also requires employees to have video on for Zoom calls, open calendars so others can see what they’re doing, and to work during “core hours” so they are reachable even if they’re not in the office.

Difficulty hiring does not appear to have motivated companies that ended their fully remote companies to change their policies, but Sadow, of Scoop, says that this may change if the job market remains tight. People may stick with their current employer for a lot of intangible reasons, but when they’re deciding where they want to work next, they may be less willing to put up with stringent in-office companies. And if companies continue having trouble hiring, they may be forced to change.

Correction, July 19

The original version of this article mischaracterized the period during which Veeva’s headcount increased by 70% and to how many states it expanded; it grew to 48 states between July 2020 and April 2023, not to 50 between Q1 2020 and Q1 2024. It also mischaracterized how Veeva defines “coworking weeks”; during those periods, the company sometimes but not always pays for small teams to work together in an office.

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Mexican businessman Manuel Gonzalez has invested €50 million in his new luxury restaurant Abya, open in a 20th-century palace in the Salamanca district of Madrid, on May 27, 2023. MANAURE QUINTERO/BLOOMBERG IMAGES/Editing by Germán & Co

For Latino investors and dissidents, Madrid is becoming the 'new Miami'

The Spanish government has made closer ties with Latin America one of the priorities of its presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Le Monde by Sandrine Morel , published today at 12:24 am (Paris)

Holders of large Mexican and Colombian fortunes; economic migrants from Honduras, Bolivia and Ecuador; Cuban and Venezuelan political dissidents and former members of Central American governments; not to mention Latino singers and writers: They are all converging at the Spanish capital. While Madrid has always nurtured a close relationship with Latin America, it is more trendy than ever, particularly among the wealthiest Latin Americans. In 2022, according to the National Statistics Institute, more than 3 million people born in Latin America were living in Spain, including over 820,000 in Madrid and its region – almost 50% more than in 2015. And that's not counting the young people of the second generation, whose parents arrived to take part in the construction boom of the early 2000s.

Determined to make the most of its historical, cultural and economic links with Latin America, the Spanish government has logically made closer ties with the continent one of the priorities of its rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, which it has held since July 1. In addition to Europe's strategic interest in a closer relationship, Spain would gain a new dimension in the geopolitical arena and assert itself as a global player, acting as a gateway and pivot to its former colonies.

"Spain is becoming what Miami used to be. The language is the same, integration is working, and wealthy Latin Americans and workers alike are finding something highly valued in Latin America: security," pointed out Erika Gonzalez, professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid. She sees in this craze the consequences of "the departure of large Latin American fortunes from the United States during Donald Trump's presidency" and "the American integration model's running out of steam."

Political instability and the fact that numerous left-wing governments came to power in Latin America – the "marea rosa" ("pink tide") – may also have caused concern among the moneyed elite. In 2021, Latin America recorded capital outflows of $140 billion (€124 billion). The same is expected in 2022. And in Madrid, several Mexican law firms specializing in international arbitration have opened offices, anticipating a "growth in litigation and regulatory problems for foreign investors," due to "the uncertainty and the political situation in Latin America," the Spanish Arbitration Club (CEA) recently pointed out.

In the middle-class Salamanca district in the heart of Madrid, Latin American millionaires have been flocking in recent years to the luxury apartments built by Venezuelan and Mexican developers. The latest example is a 1930s building on Calle de Padilla purchased by Mexican investor Nicolas Carrancedo, of the Be Grand group. Currently being refurbished, half of its 25 "premium" apartments have already been sold to wealthy Mexicans. In the spring, on Calle de José Ortega y Gasset, the new luxury restaurant Abya opened in a 20th-century palace, after Mexican businessman Manuel Gonzalez invested €50 million in the project.

Real estate, the main investment sector

"Before, capital flows were almost exclusively from North to South. Not anymore," said Erika Gonzalez. Traditionally, Latin America has served as a springboard for the internationalization of many Spanish companies in the banking, construction and renewable energies sectors, before their leap into other international markets such as the US. Now, investment in Spain from Latin America is also starting to take off. It reached €1.4 billion in 2021, and another €1.1 billion in 2022, according to the Institute for Foreign Trade (ICEX). This is still well below the €36.5 billion of foreign direct investment (IED) by Spanish companies in Latin America. But the 287 new Latin American projects launched in Spain last year testify to the dynamism of these relations.

Real estate is the main investment sector. Venezuelan developers such as Miguel Angel Capriles, a distant cousin of the Venezuelan opposition figure of the same name, led the way in 2013, when prices were at their lowest and the government had just introduced "golden visas," residency for foreigners who buy properties over €500,000. Lately, it's been Mexican investors who have been steadily buying up and renovating high-value buildings in order to bring luxury apartments onto the market, prized by their wealthy compatriots. Since 2020, they have invested €700 million.

Dissidents and former presidents

On top of these wealthy investors, numerous dissidents have also arrived – from Cuban artists of the San Isidro movement to Venezuelan opposition figure Leopoldo Lopez, along with Guatemalan human rights prosecutor Jordan Rodas, who was banned from running in the elections, the result of which is expected in August.

Three former Mexican presidents have also taken up residence in the capital. Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-1994) obtained Spanish citizenship thanks to a dispensation given to descendants of Sephardic Jews expelled from the kingdom at the end of the 15th century. Felipe Calderon (2006-2012) was invited by former Spanish prime minister José Maria Aznar to join the Atlantic Institute of Government (IADG), a think tank he founded. As for Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018), he obtained a golden visa after investing in luxury real estate in the center of Madrid and in a housing estate in a chic suburb. He found in Spain the tranquility he would probably not have experienced in his own country, where a judicial investigation has been opened against him for alleged corruption.

In 2021, after the name of two residents of 99 Calle de Lagasca appeared in the "Pandora Papers" – the leak of millions of documents from firms specializing in setting up companies in tax havens – the daily El Pais became interested in the 44 owners of this high-luxury building, where the penthouse, at the time the most expensive in the capital, had been sold for €14.6 million. Eleven of the owners were Mexican; five were Venezuelan, including a builder couple and Victor Vargas, the right-hand man of Hugo Chavez's former banker; two were Colombian; and one was Peruvian.

"Madrid has always been a welcoming city for Latin Americans, from both left and right," said Carlos Malamud, a researcher in international relations and Latin America specialist at the Elcano Royal Institute, who himself arrived in Spain in the 1970s to escape the dictatorship of Argentine general Videla. "During the last four Spanish presidencies of the EU Council, attempts had already been made to place relations with Latin America at the center of the agenda, without much success. The current context – the need for Spain to diversify its allies to cope with the consequences of the war in Ukraine – and the growing interest in strategic mineral, energy and cereal supplies has changed the game," added Malamud.

Spain intends to take advantage of this and strengthen the "Ibero-American" space. As part of the European stimulus package, the government has earmarked €1.1 billion for the development of the "economy of Spanish" in order to promote Castilian, a language spoken by over 550 million people worldwide, and encourage its use in science, artificial intelligence, culture, audiovisual media and publishing.

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News round-up, July 19, 2023

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Editorial…

“Phoenix has fallen into Hell, while the rest of the planet is immersed in an uncontrollable inferno…

In a bleak and desolate landscape, Phoenix tries to stand as a symbol of resistance—a once-thriving city now plunged into the depths of Hell. The fall season reflects the destructive destiny that awaits the rest of the planet, as an uncontrollable yet expected inferno rages. Phoenix is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave in its weather history, with temperatures exceeding 43 degrees Celsius for 19 consecutive days. This prolonged and unusual heatwave has made the city inhospitable and unbearable for its vulnerable residents. The extreme heat has also strained the city's electricity infrastructure, leading to power outages in certain areas. As a result, people seeking relief have found refuge in air-conditioned community centers and commercial establishments. At the same time, according to Dante's philosophy, the rest of the world is engulfed in flames, exacerbating the already polluted air.
It is fall, and the fate of Phoenix mirrors the devastating near future, or rather the present, that awaits the rest of the planet. This uncontrollable and relentless inferno, compared to the menacing dire wolf in the tale of “Little Red Riding Hood”, continues to unfold. Finally, our collective inability to act with genuine resolve has led to a situation where the questions we should have addressed long ago now seem too late to answer.

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Most read…

Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."

The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image by Germán & Co by Shutterstock

Henry Kissinger meets China’s defence minister in surprise visit to Beijing

Ex-US secretary of state’s meeting with Li Shangfu comes amid hopes of improved ties between two countries

The Guardian by  Amy Hawkins Senior China correspondent, July 18, 2023

“The veteran US diplomat Henry Kissinger has met China’s defence minister in Beijing.

According to a readout on Tuesday from the Chinese defence ministry, Li Shangfu said “friendly communication” between China and the US had been “destroyed” because “some people in the United States did not meet China halfway”. Kissinger said he was a “friend of China”, according to the readout.

“Neither the United States nor China can afford to treat the other as an adversary. If the two countries go to war, it will not lead to any meaningful results for the two peoples,” the Chinese statement reported Kissinger as saying.

The surprise visit of the 100-year-old former US secretary of state comes as John Kerry, the US climate envoy, is in Beijing to meet Chinese officials to discuss how the two countries can cooperate on confronting the climate crisis. Kerry is the latest in a string of senior US officials who have travelled to China this summer, after the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, completed a long-awaited trip in June.

Relations between the two superpowers have been spiralling downwards for months, but there is cautious optimism on both sides that the restarting of official dialogues can build a foundation for improved ties.

Kissinger’s visit, which had not been publicised, is outside the official roster of meetings. It is almost exactly 52 years since his secret visit to Beijing in July 1971, which paved the way for Richard Nixon, the US president at the time, to normalise relations between the US and China. More than half a century on, Kissinger is still seen by many in Beijing as a “friend of China”. In May, state tabloid the Global Times praised Kissinger’s “razor-sharp” mind.

Kissinger has repeatedly warned of “catastrophic” consequences of a conflict between the US and China.

Li has been the subject of US sanctions since 2018, relating to the purchase of combat aircraft from Russia’s main arms exporter, which Beijing cites as a reason for refusing to reopen military-to-military dialogues with Washington. Last month, Li refused to meet his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to request for comment.

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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Image: The Jaguar Land Rover battery plant is expected to generate up to 9,000 jobs in the UK CREDIT: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg/Editing by Germán & Co

Jaguar Land Rover’s new £4bn gigafactory to supply half of Britain’s EV battery needs

Government-backed deal expected to create up to 9,000 jobs

The Telegraph by Howard Mustoe, July, 18 2023 

Jaguar Land Rover owner Tata group will build one of Europe’s largest gigafactories in the UK, securing half of Britain’s supply of electric vehicle (EV) batteries for the rest of the decade in a £4bn investment.

The Government on Wednesday officially confirmed plans for the gigafactory, Tata’s first outside of India.

The decision comes after months of negotiations between the UK and Tata, which also owns the giant steel plant at Port Talbot in Wales.

The new gigafactory will have an annual capacity of 40 gigawatt hours and will be capable of supplying other carmakers in the UK and Europe. 

The Government said the Tata factory will produce enough electric car batteries to meet half of Britain’s forecast demand by 2030.

The Jaguar Land Rover battery plant is expected to generate up to 9,000 jobs in the South West of England, including 4,000 directly employed by Tata.

The decision secures the future of JLR in the UK and provides a crucial boost to the wider car industry. 

Britain’s two biggest car makers, JLR and Nissan, will now have a local supply of cells for new electric cars. Tata’s gigafactory will be 2GWh larger than the planned capacity of Nissan’s expanded plant near Sunderland.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said: “We can be incredibly proud that Britain has been chosen as home to Tata Group’s first gigafactory outside India, securing our place as one of the most attractive places to build electric vehicles.”

The news comes months after the collapse of Britishvolt, which had been hoping to build an electric car battery factory near Blyth. 

The startup crumbled into administration before its assets were bought up by an Australian investment company, which pivoted operations away from car batteries.

Concept art of the planned electric car battery factory near Blyth, which was scrapped when Britishvolt went into administration

Attracting investment into battery supplies in the UK is seen as vital to keeping the industry competitive. The Brexit deal means cars built using batteries imported from outside Europe will attract a 10pc tariff if shipped to the Continent.

A looming ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 means establishing a domestic supply chain quickly is also crucial.

The UK beat Spain to host Tata’s plant, following months of negotiations.

The Treasury is reported to have offered up to £500m in subsidies to Tata to secure the plant, although Jaguar Land Rover previously denied it was offered funding to influence the decision. 

Tata is also seeking up to £300m for its steelworks in Port Talbot.

Spain had €2bn of EU funds earmarked to boost its domestic electric vehicle sector. However, it had set a limit of €350m for financing new battery plants.

Details of the government support to Tata will be published “in due course” the Department for Business and Trade said.

Darren Jones, chairman of the Business and Trade Committee, said MPs would want to “reflect” on whether the subsidy required to secure battery investment was “scalable to meet the need for future battery manufacturing sites”.

Former Nissan executive Andy Palmer said that the rest of the industry would need help in its transition to electric vehicles.

He said: “If the UK dishes out the bulk of its battery-related support to one brand, then we still face likely car industry armageddon. Support must come in all shapes and sizes for businesses of all shapes and sizes. One gigafactory doesn’t equal success, it equals part of the puzzle.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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NThe 250MW Netzbooster (Grid Booster) project is being deployed in the hopes of increasing network utilisation across the German transmission system by using battery-based energy storage.

Source: Fluence/Editing by Germán & Co

Germany's power grid is being revolutionized by battery-based energy storage systems known as "Grid Boosters."

The power grid in Germany has always been a top priority and has followed the n-1 principle, which limits the use of power lines to prevent outages. Now, with technological advancements, a groundbreaking solution called Grid Boosters is set to revolutionize the energy industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, July 20, 2023

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“In order for the power sector to successfully transition to a net-zero emissions future, it is important to adopt flexible and innovative approaches. With increasing countries committing to ambitious decarbonization plans, the power sector will undergo significant changes. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero by 2050" report highlights the critical role that variable renewables will play in the power generation mix. As electrification becomes a means of decarbonization, power demand will increase, making it essential to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies. New technologies such as batteries, energy storage, biomass, and thermal plants with carbon capture and storage will be crucial in providing flexibility. Complementary technologies will ensure a constant balance between supply and demand as the share of variable renewable energy sources increases. The emergence of new demand sources provides a significant opportunity to prioritize flexible demand and supply technologies.

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TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH Collaborate to Simplify Energy Transmission Grid in Germany

In BAYREUTH, Germany and ERLANGEN, Germany on July 11, 2023, the transmission grid operator TenneT and Fluence Energy GmbH (Fluence), a subsidiary of Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLNC) today sealed their cooperations on two Netzboosters (Grid Boosters) with a contract signing at Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen on July 11, 2023,

This collaboration aims to simplify the energy transmission grid by introducing two Netzboosters, also known as Grid Boosters, powered by Fluence's cutting-edge energy storage technology. The Grid Boosters will utilize Fluence Ultrastack, an advanced energy storage product specifically designed to meet the demanding asset availability requirements of critical infrastructure. By incorporating battery-based energy storage systems, these Grid Boosters will significantly reduce system costs for consumers. How, you might ask? By minimizing the need for interventions in the grid and reducing the necessity for grid expansion measures.

TenneT will strategically integrate the two Grid Boosters into the transmission grid at Audorf Süd in Schleswig-Holstein and Ottenhofen in Bavaria, Germany. This strategic placement will enable TenneT to seamlessly integrate more electricity from renewable energy generation sources. The existing grid can now operate with a higher transmission load, allowing for increased capacity in handling renewable energy.

Mode of Operation of the Grid Booster

As the energy transition gains momentum, there is an increasing imbalance between energy production and consumption. This necessitates the expansion of energy grids to transport power generated in decentralized locations, often across long distances. However, traditional grid expansion alone is not sufficient to overcome the challenges faced by the transmission grid. Innovation is required, and one such concept is the Grid Booster.

Historically, the high-voltage grid in Germany has operated on the n-1 principle, which means that power lines are not fully utilized in order to ensure safe system operation in the event of a power failure. Moving forward, Grid Boosters, among other resources, will fulfill this role by allowing the existing lines to almost reach their full capacity. By doing so, the need for proactive grid interventions is greatly reduced.

TenneT's Grid Boosters are pilot projects outlined in the 2019 grid development plan for electricity. The initial stage involves testing the concept on a smaller scale with two 100 MW/100 MWh energy storage systems at the Audorf Süd and Ottenhofen substations. In the second phase of the grid development plan for 2037/2045, it is projected that the German grid will feature up to 54.5 GW of large energy storage systems by 2045 through scenario C2045. The successful implementation of TenneT's Grid Boosters will lay the foundation for future large-scale projects where storage is utilized as a transmission asset.

Ultimately, these Grid Boosters offer immense potential for secure and flexible grid operation, enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. By leveraging innovations like Grid Boosters alongside traditional grid expansion, the challenges of transmitting energy over long distances can be effectively addressed, further facilitating the ongoing energy transition.

The project builds on more than 15 years of energy storage deployments by the Fluence team. Ultrastack was tailored to the specific requirements of TenneT’s Grid Boosters and was developed and tested in Fluence’s technology centre in Erlangen. Fluence expects the need for storage solutions to grow rapidly, as the massive expansion of renewable energy sources will increase grid congestion and consequently require more grid reinforcement and relief interventions.

“Fluence, through its advanced product capabilities and extensive energy market experience, is well positioned to be a long-term partner to TSOs in Germany and globally,” said Markus Meyer, Managing Director at Fluence. “TenneT’s Grid Boosters will be the seventh and eighth storage-as-transmission projects Fluence is deploying. Our team is developing the complex applications required for these types of projects in our Erlangen lab and research facility and we continue to invest strongly in our German presence.” 

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, far left, stands alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Central Asian heads of state at the Russia-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Oct. 14, 2022. (Kazakhstan's President Press Office/AP)/Editing by Germán & Co

In Central Asia, a hidden pipeline supplies Russia with banned tech

Moscow looks south for partners willing to help it circumvent bans on Chinese drones and German electronics

WP by Joby Warrick, July 18, 2023 

On the shipping label, the Chinese drones were billed as heavy-duty cropdusters, the kind used by orchards and big farms. But the identity of the buyer — a Russian company that purchased a truckload of the aircraft in early May at nearly $14,000 each — hinted at other possible uses.

The drones’ potential military value, ironically, had been noted by Russia’s government, which last year seized four aircraft of the same model in eastern Ukraine and claimed that Kyiv was planning to use them for chemical warfare. The sturdy all-weather quadcopters are built to carry payloads of nearly 70 pounds and are designed to glide at treetop level trailing a fog of liquid chemicals.

Whatever their intended use, the drones were on the final leg of a trek across Central Asia when they were intercepted by customs officers near the border between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. To U.S. officials recounting the events weeks later, the episode was unusual: More often than not, they said, such goods pass into Russia uninterrupted.

The seizure of the drones was hailed as a rare victory in a whack-a-mole effort to halt the flow of banned hardware and electronics pouring into Russia in support of its war effort in Ukraine. Blocked from procuring military goods from Western countries, Moscow has increasingly looked for help from the former Soviet states of Central Asia, some of which are historically and financially bound to Russia but also trade extensively with Europe and China.

Biden administration officials say they are particularly concerned about the role played by Kyrgyzstan, the country from which the drone shipment originated. The mountainous, landlocked country of 6.7 million people was once the southern frontier of the Soviet empire, and it is now home to numerous businesses that have become a conduit for Western and Asian goods that Russia can’t legally obtain elsewhere, officials said in interviews.

Many Russian drones contain Western parts and technology, U.S. officials say

Following the Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion — and with greater intensity in recent months — Kyrgyzstan witnessed a striking expansion of import-export companies that do business mainly with Russia. The firms are profiting from soaring sales of sanctioned Chinese and European goods — from drones and aircraft parts to rifle scopes and advanced bomb circuitry — most of which are flown or shipped overland to companies in Russia, said a senior U.S. official with detailed knowledge about the transactions.

After months of fruitless visits to the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek by a stream of U.S. and European diplomats, the Biden administration is preparing new economic measures to pressure the country to halt the trade, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the plans. The actions, which in the past have included sanctions or a “blacklisting” of companies accused of violations, could come as early as this week, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatically sensitive deliberations.

“Kyrgyzstan, while small relative to other countries, is a clear example of every factor at play at once to create an unacceptably [sanctions] evasion-friendly environment,” the senior official said.

Publicly accessible trade documents offer hints about the scale of the Kyrgyz shadow bazaar. Records show the overall volume of Kyrgyzstan’s exports to Russia skyrocketed in 2022, rising by 250 percent over the previous year, before the invasion of Ukraine. For some items, such as rifle scopes, there was no previous record of Kyrgyzstan ever exporting such goods to Russia.

Trade documents also suggest a high level of coordination with Moscow’s procurement efforts. Records from early this year show Kyrgyz companies making bulk purchases of sensitive electronics — including hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of specialized semiconductors and voltage amplifiers — from Chinese and South Korean companies in February and March. A nearly identical quantity of the same types of electronics was exported from Kyrgyzstan to Russia over the same period, the documents show.

The Russian firms that received the goods were in most cases known suppliers to Russia’s defense industry, the senior U.S. official said. The apparent choreography of the third-party transactions was seen as the work of Russia’s intelligence services, which U.S. officials say are now directly involved, along with a range of war profiteers, in schemes aimed at circumventing economic sanctions.

The Russian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Kyrgyz Embassy in Washington, responding to a request for comment, said in a statement that the country’s leaders were committed to adhering to international regulations and cracking down on contraband and other illicit trade. The statement attributed the surge in trade with Moscow in part to improvements in electronic systems for tracking the flow of goods across the country’s borders.

While the embassy acknowledged previous reports about sanctions violations, it said critics failed to take into account the “real economic context.”

“Kyrgyzstan and Russia are the members of Eurasian Economic Union and, in general, Russia is one of our main trading partners,” it said. “More than a million of our citizens work in Russia.”

Current and former U.S. officials acknowledged Kyrgyzstan’s geopolitical and economic difficulties, while noting that some of the country’s neighbors appear to be making a more sincere effort to enforce the sanctions, even in the face of enormous pressure from Moscow.

“Geography, proximity and influence matter,” said Juan Zarate, who served under the George W. Bush administration as the Treasury Department’s inaugural assistant secretary for combating terrorist financing and financial crimes. In countries such as Kyrgyzstan, he said, there must be “political will to cut preexisting relationships, along with the courage and capacity to enforce sanctions” — even when such actions run the risk of “upsetting a dangerous neighbor.”

Kyrgyz officials declined to comment on the reported attempt to export Chinese drones to Russia, although the events were described in local news accounts in both Kyrgyzstan and neighboring Kazakhstan, where the aircraft were confiscated two months ago.

The batch of Chinese DJI Agras T-30 cropduster drones had been acquired by a Kyrgyz firm, with plans to resell them to a company in Russia. The 14 drones were being shipped overland through Kazakhstan when they were flagged by customs officials for lacking the proper export paperwork. The aircraft ultimately were impounded by the Kazakhs and never reached the Russian border, according to Kazakh media accounts. Officials at the Kazakh Embassy in Washington declined to comment about the incident.

The same Chinese manufacturer, DJI, produces similar drones for use by law-enforcement agencies, including in the United States, where the company’s models remain popular despite bans or curbs on federal use of the aircraft since 2017. DJI suspended sales of its drones to Ukraine and Russia after the February 2022 invasion, perhaps explaining why the Russian purchaser of the T-30s used an indirect route in trying to acquire them.

Both Ukraine and Russia have fully embraced the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, for a wide range of military missions, including assaults on military and civilian targets with self-detonating drones, as well as the use of lightweight “hobby” UAVs to drop small munitions on troop positions and vehicles. Both sides rely on drones for surveillance and artillery spotting. Moscow has expanded its arsenal with hundreds of powerful attack drones purchased from Iran, and it has recently begun work on a Russian assembly line to manufacture Iranian-designed UAVs.

Iran seeks billions in Russian technology as payment for drones

There is no record of Agras T-30 drones being deployed on a battlefield, although the aircraft possesses military utility because of its 66-pound payload capacity, which could be used for dropping bombs or moving weapons, said Charles Rollet, a researcher for IPVM, a publication that monitors the global surveillance industry. While relatively noisy compared to traditional military reconnaissance drones, the T-30 can fly at altitudes of up 14,000 feet and operate in all weather, day or night, according to the manufacturer’s website. It is equipped with an array of sophisticated sensors, including cameras, radar and a searchlight for illuminating objects on the ground.

After the Russian military seized the four T-30s from Ukraine last year during fighting near the eastern city of Kherson, Kremlin officials suggested in Russian media reports that Kyiv intended to use them in chemical attacks against Russian troops. There is no evidence that Ukraine has used or possesses chemical weapons.

U.S. intelligence officials have long worried, however, that Russia might resort to using its known stockpile of chemical agents to halt advancing Ukrainian troops.

Russian forces appear to have used noxious gases — believed to be variations of tear gas — against Ukrainians in at least two incidents since the invasion, according to intercepted Russian communications revealed in top-secret documents leaked on Discord and obtained by The Washington Post, as well as battlefield video broadcast by Russian news media.

Britain and the United States have officially registered their concerns about the incidents, which, if confirmed, would constitute a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, of which Russia is a signatory. Investigators have previously accused Moscow of using banned chemical weapons in assassination attempts and for providing cover to its ally Syria after that country’s use of deadly nerve agents against its own citizens.

Although the T-30 drones never reached their intended destination, U.S. officials say it is inevitable that Russia will try again to obtain unmanned aerial technology it lacks, perhaps using other partners and methods, or different kinds of aircraft.

U.S. officials acknowledge that, in most cases, countries that are determined to obtain banned goods eventually succeed, although rigorous enforcement of trade embargoes can eventually drive up costs of doing business.

“The Russians are motivated to obtain the supplies of weapons and technology they need to sustain their military and war in Ukraine, and they will do whatever is necessary,” said Zarate, the former Treasury official and now co-managing partner of K2 Integrity, a risk advisory company.

Zarate likened sanctions enforcement to weeding an unruly garden: a “long, complicated effort, with emphasis on continuous enforcement, crackdowns on evasion, and demonstration that the Russian economy will continue to be isolated and risky for anyone electing to do business with Russia.”

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Image: NYT/Editing by Germán & Co

Trump’s Conspirators Are Facing the Music, Finally

NYT by *Norman Eisen and Ryan Goodman, July 18, 2023

*Mr. Eisen is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Goodman is a law professor at New York University.

We’ve reached a turning point in the effort to ensure there are consequences for those who deliberately attempt to undermine our democracy: Michigan’s attorney general, Dana Nessel, charged 16 Republican leaders in her state on Tuesday for their role as fake electors working to overturn the results of the 2020 election. The charges, coming on the heels of news that the special counsel Jack Smith has informed Donald Trump that he’s a target of the Department of Justice’s investigation into the Capitol riot, mean we are witnessing a new and necessary phase in this quest for accountability, one in which the federal and state wheels of justice work to hold people accountable not only for the violence on Jan. 6, but also for what got us there: the alleged scheme to interfere with the transfer of power.

The charges in Michigan will surely meet criticism on all sides. Some will say the case is not broad or bold enough, that Mr. Trump and the other alleged national ringleaders should have been charged as well. Others will say Ms. Nessel cast too wide a net, pulling in low-level party functionaries who did not know better. We think those critiques are misconceived. Ms. Nessel got it just right, prosecuting crimes firmly within her jurisdiction, while opening the way for federal authorities to net even bigger fish.

Ms. Nessel brought the same eight counts against all 16 defendants. The offenses include conspiracy to commit forgery, since the defendants are accused of signing documents stating they were the qualified electors (they were not), and publishing forged documents by circulating these materials to federal and state authorities. On paper, the penalties for the offenses range from five to 14 years, but sentencing in this case would presumably be lower than that maximum.

Until now there have been no charges centered on the fake electors plot. For that reason alone, Michigan’s action brings a sense of needed accountability for those who fanned the rioters’ passions leading up to Jan. 6 by spinning a false narrative about a stolen election.

Michigan saw some of the most outrageous fake electoral certificates to emerge during the period leading up to the Capitol riot. Unlike the fake certificates in Pennsylvania and New Mexico, the Michigan documents did not include a disclaimer that they were to be used only in the case of litigation. What’s more, the documents contained more outright false statements than simply declaring that the signers were the lawful electors of the winning candidate.

For example, they state that the electors “convened and organized in the State Capitol,” when, according to the attorney general, they were hidden away in the basement of the state Republican headquarters. (It seems likely that the fake electors included this lie because Michigan law requires presidential electors to meet in the Capitol — a requirement and legal problem that a Trump campaign legal adviser, Kenneth Chesebro, had flagged in his confidential memorandum setting out the scheme.)

In proving these cases, establishing intent will be key. Here, there are several indicators that the defendants may have been aware of the illicit nature of their gathering. According to congressional testimony from the state Republican Party’s chairwoman at the time, Laura Cox, the group originally planned to meet inside the Capitol and hide overnight, so they could vote in the building the following day. Ms. Cox said she told a lawyer working with the Trump campaign and supposedly organizing the fake electors “in no uncertain terms that that was insane and inappropriate,” and “a very, very bad idea and potentially illegal.”

As she put it, Ms. Cox was “very uncomfortable” with facilitating a meeting of the fake elector group, and said so at the time in accord with her lawyers’ opinion. Ms. Cox even urged the group to draft a significantly more measured document simply “stating that if perhaps something were to happen in the courts, they were willing and able to serve as electors from Michigan for Donald Trump.” Her advice was not followed.

At the time the fake electors met to allegedly forge their documents, they should have been aware that state officials had certified the election results for Joe Biden — it was national and state news. By that point, there was no prospect of changing that outcome through either litigation or legislative action. On the day prosecutors say the fake electors met, two of the most powerful Republicans in the state acknowledged as much. Mike Shirkey, the majority leader in the State Senate, and Lee Chatfield, the House speaker, both issued statements declaring the presidential race over. Mr. Shirkey said that Michigan’s “Democratic slate of electors should be able to proceed with their duty” without the threat of harassment or violence.

The fake electors were told they were not allowed to bring their phones into the meeting at the Republican headquarters that day, according to testimony one of them gave congressional investigators. They were instructed to maintain secrecy and not to share any details about what was occurring. That secrecy suggests that they knew what they were doing was wrong.

Michigan’s former secretary of state, Terri Lynn Land, who had been designated a Trump elector, declined to participate in the proceedings, saying, according to Ms. Cox’s testimony, she was not comfortable doing so.

With these facts, it would have been unthinkable for the state attorney general to choose not to prosecute the Michigan 16. Ms. Nessel’s office has regularly brought prosecutions, some of them against her fellow Democrats, centered on false documents in connection with elections. The case of the fake electors is far more egregious than most of those other cases: The defendants here were politically engaged individuals who should have been aware of the election results, as well as the flat rejection by the courts and Michigan Legislature of the Trump campaign’s claims of voter fraud.

To be sure, some critics of the case may still think that the Michigan attorney general should have gone after Mr. Trump and his top lieutenants, who helped organize the false electors. But prosecutors have a responsibility first to pursue those individuals within their jurisdiction. By focusing solely on the figures who undertook their acts in Michigan, Ms. Nessel is wisely insulating her case against charges that she overreached, exceeding her jurisdiction.

Of course, broader prosecutions may still be justified. Reporting indicates that the district attorney for Fulton County, Ga., Fani Willis, may be considering a different kind of wide-ranging case, involving state RICO crimes. Unlike the Michigan prosecution, her case may focus on Mr. Trump’s direct efforts to pressure state election officials — efforts that were caught on tape — and Rudy Giuliani’s attempt to provide false statements of election fraud to state officials.

If broad-based indictments ultimately emerge out of Georgia, and are supported by the facts and appropriate law, then we would welcome it. That is part of the genius of American democracy: The states, which are responsible for running our elections, are laboratories of both democracy and of accountability.

Ms. Nessel’s case also leaves a clear lane for Mr. Smith, the special counsel. She has avoided charging high-level national individuals whom Mr. Smith is apparently investigating. If anything, her case provides greater foundation for Mr. Smith to act, and he now seems to be following through. If Ms. Nessel can move against these individuals in Michigan, Mr. Smith can and should do the same against the ringleaders. Together, they can hold both the foot soldiers and their organizers accountable for their actions leading up to the Capitol riot.

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Labourers work next to electricity pylons in Mumbai, India, October 13, 2021. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/

Global power demand growth to rebound in 2024 after slowdown, IEA says

The IEA data also suggests that renewable energy will play a crucial role in meeting the projected growth in energy consumption for both this year and next. In fact, renewable sources are predicted to surpass one third of the world's total power supply, marking a significant milestone. This demonstrates the increasing prominence of renewable energy in the global energy landscape.

Reuters by Forrest Crellin, EDITING BY GERMÁN & CO, July 19, 2023

PARIS, July 19 (Reuters) - An ongoing energy crisis and an economic downturn is expected to slow global power demand growth in 2023, but a probable rebound in 2024 means more renewable capacity needs to be developed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

The global growth rate for energy consumption is set to slow to slightly less than 2% in 2023, down from 2.3% in 2022, which was also down from the five-year pre-COVID 19 average of 2.4%.

For 2024, the rate is expected to rise to 3.3%, as the economic outlook improves, the IEA data showed.

The Paris-based agency predicted renewable energy would cover the expected growth this year and next and power from renewable sources would exceed one third of the total global power supply for the first time next year.

However, hydropower has declined, falling about 2% in 2020-2022 compared to 1990-2016 figures, which represents about 240 terawatt-hours, or the annual consumption of Spain.

"Anticipating challenges on hydropower related to climate change, and planning accordingly, will be crucial for the efficient and sustainable use of hydro resources," the IEA said.

The renewable growth should help to cut global emissions, as emissions increases in China and India are expected to be offset by declines in other countries where renewable deployment is growing and natural gas continues to replace coal, the IEA said.

The European Union alone accounts for 40% of the total decline in emissions from power generation, the IEA data showed.

In the first half this year, the EU recorded a 6% decline in power demand as energy-intensive industries, including aluminum, steel, paper, and chemical industries, cut their use in response to high prices. A relatively mild winter also had a more limited impact on reducing demand, the IEA said.

Wholesale electricity prices, have fallen significantly from records hit last year as a result of the disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but average prices in Europe are still more than double their 2019 levels, India's are up 80%, and Japan's more than 30%.

Prices in the United States, however, have retreated almost to 2019 levels. The country's demand is expected to decline by 1.7% in 2023 due to slowing economic growth, and to rebound in 2024 to 2%, down from the 2.6% recorded in 2022.

In China, demand is expected to grow 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024, after a moderate 3.7% rise in 2022, the IEA data showed. Increased use of cooling to cope with summer heatwaves is expected to drive the demand growth there this year.

India's consumption is expected to rise by 6.8% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024 - when it is expected to surpass that of Japan and Korea combined - but down from the 8.4% rise recorded in 2022.

The growth is expected to come from increased use of household appliances, a rise in electrical machinery usage, an increase in electric vehicles, and greater demand for cooling.

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News round-up, July 18, 2023

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Quote of the days…

Pioneers in Green Aviation: Norwegian Electric Planes

The aviation industry, widely acknowledged for its significant environmental impact, has become a focal point in the battle against climate change. In this regard, Norway has emerged as a potential pioneer, as it aims to transition all short-haul flights to electric planes by 2040.

Spiegel 

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Most read…

Modi and India’s Diaspora: A Complex Love Affair Making Global Waves

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to fuse his image to the economic and political power of Indians abroad. They voice both pride and worry in return.

NYT By Damien Cave, reporting from Washington, Silicon Valley and Sydney, Australia, July 18, 2023

Russia Stops Ukraine Grain Deal, Shaking World Food Markets

Moscow, which has repeatedly complained that the U.N.-brokered agreement is one-sided in Ukraine’s favor, said it could return to the deal if its demands were met.

NYT By Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Ivan Nechepurenko, Liz Alderman and Farnaz Fassihi, July 17, 2023

Gem Hunters Found the Lithium America Needs… Maine Won’t Let Them Dig It Up

The world’s richest known lithium deposit lies deep in the woods of western Maine, in a yawning, sparkling mouth of white and brown rocks that looks like a landslide carved into the side of Plumbago Mountain.

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS AND KATE COUGH / MAINE MONITOR, JULY 17, 2023 

Germany adds 60% more onshore wind power in H1 but pace seen too slow

The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports to Germany last year highlighted the hazards of relying on imports and emphasized the urgency of implementing a local energy plan.

Reuters by Vera Eckert, July 18, 2023

Britain opens small nuclear reactor competition, launches new nuclear body

Ambitious Plan: Boosting Nuclear Power to Meet Climate Targets

Reuters by Susanna Twidale, July 18, 2023

Pioneers in Green Aviation: Could Norwegian Electric Planes Be a Model for the Rest of the World?

The global aviation industry has a massive climate problem, and many are looking to Norway for a possible solution. The country wants all short-haul flights to be conducted with electric planes as early as 2040. But doubts persist about whether the technology will be ready.

Spiegel by Marcus Efler, 18.07.2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India at a rally in an arena in Sydney, in May.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times

Modi and India’s Diaspora: A Complex Love Affair Making Global Waves

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to fuse his image to the economic and political power of Indians abroad. They voice both pride and worry in return.

NYT By Damien Cave, reporting from Washington, Silicon Valley and Sydney, Australia, July 18, 2023

On the final night of his visit to Washington in late June, after 15 standing ovations in Congress and an opulent White House dinner tailored to his vegetarian tastes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India set time aside to court and be cheered by another important constituency: the Indian diaspora.

Backstage at the Kennedy Center, as business leaders in bespoke suits and fine silk saris filtered into a 1,200-seat theater, Mr. Modi met with a handful of entrepreneurs. Most were young, educated in India, made rich in America, and eager to connect with the man who presents himself as a guru to the world, preaching how this is “the century of India.”

“Thank you for lifting the image and spirits of Indian Americans,” Umesh Sachdev, 37, told the prime minister, explaining that he was the founder of Uniphore, an artificial intelligence business valued at $2.5 billion, with offices in India and California. Mr. Modi tapped Mr. Sachdev’s shoulder and exclaimed “waah,” or wow in Hindi.

With an emphasis on national pride, Mr. Modi and his conservative Hindu-first Bharatiya Janata Party have cultivated a surprisingly strong relationship with India’s successful diaspora. The bond has been strengthened by a global political machine, supercharged under Mr. Modi with party offices in dozens of countries and thousands of volunteers. And it has allowed Mr. Modi to fuse his own image — and his rubric of elevating India — with superstar executives and powerful, often more liberal constituencies in the United States, Britain, Australia and many other nations.

No other world leader seems to draw such a steady flow of diaspora welcome parties, most recently in Paris, New York and Cairo, or giant audiences, including 20,000 fans at a rally in Australia in May. Mr. Modi was in France on Friday as the guest of honor at the annual Bastille Day parade, and with elections next year in India, the pattern has been set.

“The B.J.P. leadership wants to show its strength abroad, to create strength at home,” said Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert on South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

But in some corners of the diaspora, strains are emerging. Many Indian professionals who cheer when Mr. Modi boasts that India has become the world’s fifth-largest economy — who gush about new infrastructure and more modern cities — also fear that his government’s Hindu-supremacist policies and growing intolerance of scrutiny will keep India from truly standing as a superpower and democratic alternative to China.

Vinod Khosla, a prominent Silicon Valley investor, who has often pushed for closer U.S.-India relations, said in an interview that India’s greatest risk is a disruption to economic growth from the instability and inequality inflamed by Hindu nationalism. Others worry that Mr. Modi, in a bubble of political celebrity and religious certitude, is ignoring the fragility of positive momentum in a complex, diverse and volatile nation of 1.4 billion people.

“The demographics only work for India if there is progressivism and inclusion,” said Arun Subramony, a private equity banker in Washington with digital, health and other investments in India. “The party has to make an extra effort to make clear that India is for everyone.”

Techno-Utopian Dreams

The bond between the diaspora and the B.J.P. began with pragmatism — and with the first B.J.P. prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who promoted information technology as the solution to India’s development problems in the late 1990s.

Kanwal Rekhi, the first Indian American to take a company public on the Nasdaq, heard Mr. Vajpayee’s speeches and thought: This guy gets it. He asked for a meeting and arrived in New Delhi in April 2000, leading a group called The IndUS Entrepreneurs, or TiE.

At the prime minister’s residence, there were paratroopers on the roof and tanks nearby, vestiges of a recent conflict with Pakistan. Mr. Rekhi was there promising that entrepreneurship could bridge divides — India and Pakistan, Muslims and Hindus. Mr. Vajpayee welcomed their techno-utopianism.

“He asked: ‘What is your sense of India and Indians?’ Then he said, ‘Our future is very bright, and you need to show us the way,’” Mr. Rekhi said in an interview.

So began a relationship with the diaspora that reversed decades of rancor, when those who left with university degrees were seen as traitors to India’s needs. Once Mr. Vajpayee made clear that he saw Indians overseas as guides and consultants, that is what they became.

TiE made several recommendations, bolstered by Stanford professors, and Mr. Vajpayee followed their suggestions. In 2001, for example, his government loosened its monopoly on internet infrastructure, allowing more private competition.

Naren Bakshi, another tech executive in the meetings, recalled that Mr. Vajpayee insisted that the diaspora also play a direct role.

“If you care for India,” he told them, “come to India.”

Mr. Bakshi bought a home near where he had grown up in the state of Rajasthan, and he has spent four months a year in India ever since.

In the early 2000s, he also helped found the India Community Center in Milpitas, Calif., a sprawling complex in a South Asian suburb of San Jose that has become a hub for yoga, Muslim and Hindu holidays, weddings — and, increasingly, meetings with visiting Indian officials.

“People here are very much involved,” Raj Desai, the center’s president, said over tea one recent morning.

In Silicon Valley and elsewhere, Overseas Friends of the B.J.P., the party’s international arm, has become an established presence. Helping with immigration issues and other challenges, its members supplement and compete with India’s understaffed corps of around 950 foreign service officers — a fraction of the roughly 16,000 who work for the United States.

Hindus from the diaspora celebrating the Ganesh Festival in 2015 in Jersey City, N.J. Mr. Vajpayee made clear that he saw Indians overseas as guides and consultants for their country.Credit...Kirsten Luce for The New York Times

Last year — even though voting in India’s elections must be done in person — the B.J.P. sponsored events with party officials in Texas, New Jersey, Washington, D.C., and North Carolina, as well as several events at the India Community Center in California, according to its mandatory registration filings as a foreign agent.

Visiting officials also bring together smaller groups for dinners and discussion. Mr. Sachdev, the Uniphore chief executive, said he had gone to several such gatherings, adding that the conversations focused on business policy more than politics.

He and other attendees said they had never been asked to contribute to B.J.P. campaigns.

But political scientists believe that the B.J.P. and Hindu organizations draw a significant flow of money from the diaspora. In 2018, Mr. Modi’s government rushed through Parliament a law allowing Indians living abroad and foreign companies with subsidiaries in India to make undisclosed political donations. Spending on India’s 2019 campaign topped $8 billion, making it the most expensive election in the world.

“There’s an absence of transparency, and it’s by design,” said Gilles Verniers, a senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi.

In the United States, the B.J.P. registered its presence — a requirement for any foreign political party — only after questions were raised about the financing of a giant “Howdy Modi” celebration in 2019 in Houston with President Donald J. Trump.

In Australia, the organization still does not appear in the foreign transparency register, despite the costs associated with Mr. Modi’s rally in May at Sydney’s Qudos Bank Arena, where hundreds of people lined up outside for selfies with twin Modi cardboard cutouts framing a giant sign with “We ❤️ Modi” in bright white lights.

Visitors lining up to take photos with a cardboard cut out of Mr. Modi during a rally in Sydney. Groups had reached the event by bus and flights chartered by a local B.J.P. chapter.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times

“He’s the leader of the century,” said Meera Rawat, after snapping a photo with one of the cardboard Modis.

Her group had reached Sydney on a bus chartered by a local B.J.P. chapter. Several flights were also chartered by the party.

Asked about the process, B.J.P. officials in Australia said everything was “fully funded by the local Indian community and businesses.”

Albel Singh Kang, secretary of the Australian Sikh Association, said his group had initially been recruited for the event. When organizers declined to identify its funders, he passed. Indian Muslim leaders also stayed away, noting that members of Mr. Modi’s party have called for Muslims to be murdered — without strong condemnation from the prime minister.

Pushing for Change

Many Indians overseas fret about bloodshed in India, where religious minorities make up 20 percent of the population, and where Hindu mobs are regularly accused of lynching people, mostly Muslims, for their food, style of dress, or interfaith marriages. But India’s emigrant families also worry about violence leeching into the countries where they have moved.

In 2021, men armed with bats and hammers attacked four Sikh students in a car in Sydney. After one of the men served a six-month sentence, he returned to India, where he received a hero’s welcome. Tensions among Indian immigrants in Britain, Canada and the United States have also been rising in recent years, along with vandalism and threats.

“The fact is, there are divisions within India, and they are bound to express themselves because politics doesn’t stop at the national shores,” said C. Raja Mohan, a senior fellow with the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi.

Rising concerns about polarization are often overlooked amid the Modi pageantry. At the diaspora event in Sydney, Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, compared Mr. Modi to Bruce Springsteen, calling India’s leader “The Boss,” to huge cheers.

Sundar Pichai, chief executive officer of Alphabet Inc., and his wife, Anjali Pichai, at the White House in June. Mr. Modi relies on an exceptionally successful diaspora to spread the message of a strong India.Credit...Samuel Corum for The New York Times

In Washington, where 7,000 Indian Americans joined him in an exuberant celebration on the White House lawn, Mr. Modi said at a news conference that discrimination against minorities did not exist under his government. A few hours later, human rights activists gathered outside the gate, including Muslims who had fled to the United States after facing persecution in India. The TV crews had already moved on.

Behind the scenes, American officials say there has been more nudging of Mr. Modi.

Ro Khanna, co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans, who represents the district that includes the India Community Center, said that he had spoken to Mr. Modi about the importance of pluralism.

“I want us to be very much focused on strengthening the U.S.-India relationship under the principle of India’s founding and our founding,” Mr. Khanna said, “and not a celebration of any particular individual.”

Some business leaders say that Mr. Modi deserves their unflagging support. “What’s important to me is, has he been able to put India on a trajectory of growth and global leadership?” said Mr. Sachdev of Uniphore. The United Nations recently reported that India’s economy had lifted 415 million people out of poverty in the past 15 years.

Others have started mixing praise with pragmatic concern. Mr. Khosla, the prominent investor, said it was time to recognize that the government’s favoring of Hindus “can take attention off the principal path of economic progress, and set it back, and set back global relationships.”

Mr. Modi with President Joe Biden last month. Behind the scenes, American officials say there has been more nudging of Mr. Modi about the importance of pluralism, along with other topics.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times

Even in Washington’s supportive diaspora crowds, there was a blend of pride and appeals for moderation, for equal opportunity and constructive critique.

Mr. Subramony, the private equity banker, said he grew up in southern India without regular water or electricity, in a compound of 10 families practicing four different religions. He called Mr. Modi “a very quick learner” who would hopefully defend India’s more tolerant values.

“It’s also our responsibility, the people who are feeding Modi, who are being inspired by what is going on in India,” he said. “It is our duty to make him change.”

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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Image: Ukraine is a major exporter of foodstuffs, and Africa, in particular, relies on grain stored in silos like these, in Marianske, in the southern Dnipro region, in June.Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

Russia Stops Ukraine Grain Deal, Shaking World Food Markets

Moscow, which has repeatedly complained that the U.N.-brokered agreement is one-sided in Ukraine’s favor, said it could return to the deal if its demands were met.

NYT By Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Ivan Nechepurenko, Liz Alderman and Farnaz Fassihi, July 17, 2023

Russia said on Monday it was withdrawing from a wartime agreement to allow grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea until its demands to loosen sanctions on its own agricultural exports were met, upending a deal that has helped stabilize global food prices and alleviate shortages in parts of Africa and the Middle East.

The agreement, known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, was struck a year ago, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, to alleviate a global food crisis after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia had blockaded Ukrainian ports, blocking ships from carrying its grain and sending global prices soaring to record highs. The deal has been extended three times, most recently in May. The latest extension expired on Monday.

The United Nations’ secretary general, António Guterres, said he was “deeply disappointed” by Moscow’s decision, and that millions of people facing hunger, as well as consumers confronting a cost-of-living crisis, would “pay a price.” He also said he had sent proposals last week to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to facilitate Moscow’s demands. Mr. Putin never responded directly, a U.N. spokesman said.

Russia has repeatedly complained about the agreement, which it calls one-sided in Ukraine’s favor. Moscow has said that Western sanctions, imposed because of Moscow’s devastating war, have restricted the sale of Russia’s agricultural products, and Moscow has sought guarantees that free up those exports.

In April, Russia’s Foreign Ministry also listed other demands to renew the grain deal: reconnect the state-owned Russian Agricultural Bank to the international SWIFT messaging service that is critical for cross-border payments; lift restrictions on maritime insurance and on the supply of spare parts used in agricultural machinery; end sanctions against fertilizer companies and the people linked to them; and restore an ammonia pipeline that crosses Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, who announced on Monday that the Black Sea grain agreement was “halted,” said, “As soon as the Russian part is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to the implementation of that deal.”

Russia’s announcement came hours after a deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge linking the occupied Crimea Peninsula to mainland Russia. Mr. Peskov said the decision to suspend the grain deal was not connected to the attack.

Ukraine is one of the world’s major exporters of wheat, corn, sunflower seeds and vegetable oil. It has exported 32.9 million tons of grain and other food under the initiative, according to U.N. data. Under the agreement, ships are permitted to pass by Russian naval vessels that kept other vessels from using Ukraine’s ports since the start of Russia’s war. The ships are inspected off the coast of Istanbul, in part to ensure they are not carrying weapons.

The effects of the suspended grain deal were quickly apparent. It rattled wheat markets, seesawing prices and exposing vulnerable countries in Africa and the global south to the prospect of a new round of food insecurity.

Chicago wheat futures, a barometer for global prices, briefly jumped more than 4 percent as the Kremlin’s move jeopardized a key trade route to global markets for grain from Ukraine. Later, prices swung to more than 1 percent lower for the day.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken told reporters at the State Department on Monday: “I hope that every country is watching this very closely. They will see that Russia is responsible for denying food to people who are desperately needy around the world.”

John Kirby, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, called Russia’s move a “military act of aggression” and said that the United States was already seeing a rise in global wheat, corn and soybean prices.

“We urge the government of Russia to immediately reverse its decision,” he added.

Russia’s decision appears to be part of a broader effort by Mr. Putin to reassert an aura of unassailable authority after a failed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group, said Timothy Ash, a senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London and an expert on Russia and Ukraine.

“It will hurt specific countries dependent on these exports,” Mr. Ash said. But beyond that, “it shows how weak Putin is after the Wagner coup: He is now desperate to take any bit of leverage he can.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Moscow had broken its agreement with the United Nations and with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, rather than with his country, given that Ukraine had made a separate deal with the two mediators over grain. In remarks conveyed by his press office, Mr. Zelensky added that Ukraine was ready to restart shipments if the United Nations and Turkey agreed.

With Black Sea ports closed again, Ukraine may have to redouble its use of alternative routes, exporting grain by truck, train and river barge — journeys that take a longer time than shipping by sea, and cannot handle the same volume.

Mr. Blinken said that the United States would help Ukraine find other means of export, but that “it’s really hard to replace what’s now being lost as a result of Russia weaponizing food.”

Mr. Erdogan said he would speak to Mr. Putin about the agreement and signaled hope that it could be revived. “Despite the statement today, I believe the president of the Russian Federation, my friend Putin, wants the continuation of this humanitarian bridge,” Mr. Erdogan said in Istanbul.

The deal between Ukraine and Russia — which is also a major global supplier of grain, oil and other affordable food products — is particularly important in 14 African nations that depend on the two nations for half of their wheat imports, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. Eritrea is fully dependent on them.

When the grain deal began in July 2022, Célestin Tawamba, the chief executive officer of La Pasta, the largest flour and pasta producer in Cameroon, said, “The noose was tightening, so the deal should help us breathe.”

The initial agreement allowed Ukraine to restart the export of millions of tons of grain that had languished for months. Food prices have dropped over 23 percent from their peak in March 2022, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Food Price Index. The accord has allowed vital food products to be exported from Ukrainian ports to 45 countries on three continents, the United Nations said.

But again and again, before each negotiated extension has run out, Russia has signaled it might withdraw from the agreement. Last year, after accusing Ukraine of attacking its warships in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol with a swarm of drones, Russia pulled out, halting participation in inspections that were part of the agreement. Then it rejoined in a matter of days.

The collapse of the grain deal dominated the U.N. Security Council’s session on Ukraine on Monday. China, an ally of Russia’s, stopped short of directly condemning Russia for withdrawing from the deal but called on both sides to resume negotiations to restore the pact.

Mr. Guterres said earlier that to help meet Russia’s demands, he had sent Mr. Putin proposals to “remove hurdles” affecting its financial transactions. He said the United Nations had proposed enabling a subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank — one of several institutions barred by Western sanctions from SWIFT because of Russia’s aggression — to regain access with the European Commission, and that the agency had built a bespoke payment mechanism outside of SWIFT for the bank through JP Morgan.

The U.N. spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, said that Russia’s response to the letter apparently came in the form of Monday’s announcement. Mr. Guterres said, however, that the United Nations intended to start negotiating a new grain proposal with Mr. Putin.

Despite Russia’s move, analysts say, some factors may prevent food prices from surging to the staggering levels seen just after Russia invaded Ukraine.

For one thing, the global commodity price outlook is weaker than a year ago because of a faltering economic recovery in China. A global cost-of-living crisis has been eroding demand more generally, Mr. Ash, the strategist, said. Supply chain stresses are also easing, and manufacturing and production costs have cooled, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics, a research institute.

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at the financial services firm StoneX, said that Russia was still dumping cheap wheat on the global market, “so we are not running out of wheat right now.”

“This particular development today may not do a lot to risk world hunger,” he said, “but the continual escalation with no resolution in sight means the risks are still growing.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Mary and Gary Freeman stand in a pit in Newry, Maine, where they have excavated 700 tons of the lithium-bearing mineral spodumene under an exploratory permit, on June 6. The site, also known as Plumbago North, contains some of the largest specimens of spodumene ever uncovered, with some measuring up to 36 feet in length. The state of Maine currently bars them from further extracting the rock. /Garrick Hoffman—The Maine Monitor/Editing by Germán & Co

Gem Hunters Found the Lithium America Needs. Maine Won’t Let Them Dig It Up

The world’s richest known lithium deposit lies deep in the woods of western Maine, in a yawning, sparkling mouth of white and brown rocks that looks like a landslide carved into the side of Plumbago Mountain.

TIME BY ALANA SEMUELS AND KATE COUGH / MAINE MONITOR, JULY 17, 2023 

Mary Freeman and her husband Gary found the deposit five years ago while hunting for tourmaline, a striking, multi-colored gemstone found in the region.

The Freemans make their living selling lab supplies through the Florida-based company they founded 40 years ago, Awareness Technology. But their true love is digging for gemstones, which has brought them for years to Mary’s home state of Maine, the site of some of the best tourmaline hunting in the world.

Since 2003, they’ve been buying up property parcels, studying core samples and old geological maps to determine where to try digging next, then spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a year on blasting and equipment. The couple has dug more than a mile of tunnels in pursuit of beautiful stones, and many of their finds—like blue elbaite and rich watermelon tourmaline—have wound up on display at the Maine Mineral & Gem Museum in nearby Bethel.

Now, the Freemans want to expand this pit, near the town of Newry, Maine, so they can mine spodumene, crystals that contain the lithium the U.S. needs for the clean energy transition. The timing of their discovery, in what has been named Plumbago North, is remarkable; the Freemans have stumbled across one of the only hard-rock sources of lithium in the U.S. at a time when the material is desperately needed for the clean energy transition. By 2040, the world will need at least 1.1 million metric tons of lithium annually, more than ten times what it currently produces, according to projections by the International Energy Agency. Should the Maine deposit be mined, it could be worth as much as $1.5 billion, a huge windfall for the Freemans and a boon to the Biden Administration’s efforts to jumpstart more domestic mining, processing, and recycling of critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements to reduce the U.S.’ dependence on China. This is one of the few lithium deposits in the U.S. currently found in hard rock, which means it is higher-quality and faster to process than lithium mined from brine.

“I consider myself an environmentalist,” says Mary, who on a recent rainy visit to the test quarry, was wearing jeans, a sweater, and hiking boots, her white hair pulled into a low ponytail. Most of the country’s critical minerals are mined elsewhere and processed in China, she adds. “I think [the U.S.] should try to be a little bit more self-sufficient.”

But like just about everywhere in the U.S. where new mines have been proposed, there is strong opposition here. Maine has some of the strictest mining and water quality standards in the country, and prohibits digging for metals in open pits larger than three acres. There have not been any active metal mines in the state for decades, and no company has applied for a permit since a particularly strict law passed in 2017. As more companies begin prospecting in Maine and searching for sizable nickel, copper, and silver deposits, towns are beginning to pass their own bans on industrial mining.

“This is a story that has been played out in Maine for generations,” says Bill Pluecker, a member of the state’s House of Representatives, whose hometown of Warren—a 45-minute drive from the capital city of Augusta—recently voted overwhelmingly in favor of a temporary ban on industrial metal mining after a Canadian company came looking for minerals near a beloved local pond. “We build industries based on the needs of populations not living here and then the bottom drops out, leaving us struggling again to pick up the pieces.”

Mainers often invoke the Callahan Mine in the coastal town of Brooksville as a warning. Tailings from the mine, which operated for several years in the late 1960s, were disposed of in a pile next to a salt marsh and creek. The former mine is now a Superfund site, and a 2013 study by researchers at Dartmouth College found widespread evidence of toxic metals in nearby sediment, water and fish. Cleanup costs, borne by taxpayers, are estimated between $23 million and $45 million.

“Our gold rush mentality regarding oil has fueled the climate crisis,” says State Rep. Margaret O’Neil, who presented a bill last session that would have halted lithium mining for five years while the state worked out rules (the legislation ultimately failed). “As we facilitate our transition away from fossil fuels, we must examine the risks of lithium mining and consider whether the benefits of mining here in Maine justify the harms.”

The Freemans’ point out that they plan to dig for the spodumene, then ship it out of state for processing, so there would be no chemical ponds or tailings piles. They liken the excavation of the minerals to quarrying for granite or limestone, which enjoys a long, rich history in Maine.

Advocates for mining in the U.S. argue that, since the country outsources most of its mining to places with less strict environmental and labor regulations, those harms are currently being born by foreign residents, while putting U.S. manufacturers in the precarious position of depending on faraway sources for the minerals they need. Though there are more than 12,000 active mines in the U.S., the bulk of them are for stone, coal, sand, and gravel.

There is only one operational lithium mine in the U.S., in Nevada, and one operational rare earth element mine, in Mountain Pass, Calif., meaning that the U.S. is dependent on other countries for the materials essential for clean energy technologies like batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels. Even after they’re mined, those materials currently have to be shipped to China for processing since the U.S. does not have any processing facilities.

“If we’re talking about critical metals and materials, we’re so far behind that it’s crazy,” says Corby Anderson, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines. “It’s the dichotomy of the current administration—they have incentives for electric vehicles and all these things, but they need materials like graphite, manganese, nickel, cobalt, lithium, and copper. The only one we mine and refine in this country is copper.”

The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the problems of faraway supply chains; as U.S. consumers shopped online in their homes, the goods they bought, mostly from Asia, experienced lengthy delays at clogged ports. What’s more, diplomatic tensions with China motivated the U.S. government to seek other potential sources for mining, material processing, and recycling.

That’s why, in the pandemic’s aftermath, the Biden Administration launched an initiative to secure a Made in America supply chain for critical minerals. It included billions in funding for companies trying to mine and process critical minerals domestically.

The rocks in Plumbago North would seem to help provide a domestic supply chain for critical minerals; they are thought to be among the largest specimens of spodumene ever found, with crystals of such high quality that in addition to batteries, they could be used to make scientific glassware or computer screens, where the lithium metal would help lower the melting temperature.

The Freemans are just two of the hundreds of people prospecting for critical materials across the country as the U.S. tries to strengthen the domestic supply chain. According to an analysis by Patrick Donnelly, the Great Basin Director for the Center for Biological Diversity, a nonprofit environmental organization, more than 100 companies have staked claims for lithium deposits in the American West. Companies also have applied for permits to mine cobalt in Idaho, nickel and copper in Minnesota, and lithium in North Carolina.

Geologists say there’s also likely a lot more lithium in spodumene deposits across New England. Communities that haven’t had working mines in years may soon find themselves a key source for lithium and other minerals needed for car batteries, solar panels, and many of the objects people will need more of to transition themselves off polluting fossil fuels.

There are good reasons for U.S. communities to have healthy skepticism about mining projects; there is no shortage of examples of a company coming into a community, mining until doing so becomes too expensive, then leaving a polluted site for someone else to clean up. There are more than 50,000 abandoned mines in the western United States alone, 80% of which still need to be remediated. Passage of landmark environmental laws like the Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Clean Water Act of 1972 hasn’t made mining safe enough, environmentalists say.

“All mines pollute in one way or another, and mines are really bad at predicting how much they’re going to pollute,” says Jan Morrill, who studies mining at the environmental group Earthworks, which recently found that 76% of mining companies in the U.S. polluted groundwater after saying they wouldn’t.

One of the most problematic parts of mines is the tailings, or waste, Morrill says: Companies extract the minerals they need, then are left with a giant pile of rock, liquid, and chemicals that they store in ponds or behind dams that sometimes prove unstable. These tailings have caused landslides, excessive dust, and water pollution; more than 300 mine tailing dams have failed worldwide over the last century, according to Christopher Sergeant, a research scientist at the University of Montana.

It is not uncommon for tailings to leak into water, in fact, there is a permit that mine owners can get in case they find their projections were wrong and they need to discharge into U.S. waters.

Even “modern mines” that adhere to the latest U.S. standards—which are among the strictest in the world—still pollute, Earthworks has found. Though there are, theoretically, non-polluting ways to store mine tailings, doing so is much more expensive and mine operators have largely not paid to do so, Morrill says. That’s because, says Aimee Boulanger, executive director of the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, “laws and markets have not fully incentivized companies to do that.”

Indeed, the Biden initiative to increase domestic mining includes, for example, a $700 million loan for Ioneer, a company planning a lithium mine on Rhyolite Ridge in Nevada, where environmental groups say the mine, as proposed, would cause the extinction of an endangered species called Tiehm’s buckwheat. The Administration is also spending $115 million to help Talon Nickel build a battery minerals processing facility in North Dakota, but the potential mine they would source from, in Minnesota, is opposed by Indigenous groups and environmentalists who fear it could contaminate wells in the area.

Still, the U.S. has a more rigorous regulatory environment than many other countries, she says, and there are domestic mines that even some environmentalists support, like the Stillwater Mine in Montana. Community organizations there signed a Good Neighbor Agreement in 2000 with the Sibanye-Stillwater Mining Company allowing the firm to extract platinum and palladium—while also establishing clear and enforceable water standards, restrictions to minimize local traffic, and third-party auditors to ensure the mine adheres to the standards it set out. The mine is now one of the top employers and private-sector income generators in Montana.

But advocates had to force the Agreement; three grassroots organizations sued to stop the construction of the mine, and after a year of negotiations, the mining company and grassroots groups agreed to the contract instead of going to court. With support from elected officials trying to find ways to mine more critical minerals in the U.S., companies may not feel the need to make similar promises to the local community.

Environmental concerns aren’t the only problem with mining, Morrill says. The history of mining in the U.S. is linked to colonialism; Christopher Columbus was looking for gold when he stumbled across North America, and as Europeans expanded into the continent, they took land from Indigenous people to mine for gold, silver, and other metals.

Today, mining in the U.S. often encroaches on Indigenous land. Under mining laws in the U.S. that date to 1872, anyone can stake a claim on federal public lands and apply for permits to start mining if they find “valuable” mineral deposits there. Most lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines are within 35 miles of a Native American reservation, Morrill says, largely because in the aftermath of the 1849 gold rush, the U.S. military removed tribes to reservations not far from mineral deposits in the West. In one particularly controversial project, the mining company Rio Tinto wants to build a copper mine on Oak Flat, Ariz., a desert area adjacent to an Apache reservation that Indigenous groups have used for centuries to conduct cultural ceremonies.

Yet fears about the effects of climate change are escalating the pressure on local communities to get out of the way of mines, says Thea Riofrancos, an associate professor of political science at Providence College who studies mining and the green energy transition. She and other scholars have questioned whether projections that the world will face lithium shortages by 2025 are accurate; recycling more batteries and transitioning away from private vehicles to more public transportation, for example, could reduce our long-term need for lithium-ion energy storage.

“We should think about what is driving this demand, why does this rush feel so intensive, why is there not a version where we are going to try and do this transition with the least amount of mining possible?” Riofrancos says.

Most environmentalists agree that the 1872 mining law needs to be updated and there are several bills in Congress that would do so. The Clean Energy Minerals Reform Act of 2023, for example, introduced by Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) in May, would require more tribal consultation and change how mining is approved on federal lands.

Finding a way to mine in the U.S. could help address a moral quandary, that we consume these materials but ask other countries to bear the brunt of their extraction, says Boulanger, with IRMA.

“There’s an argument to be made that if we’re going to use these materials, and we live in the most consumptive country in the world, we shouldn’t be making other countries be the bank account of our natural resources,” she says.

If lawmakers and regulators can’t agree on how to mine on U.S. soil, it could leave the U.S. susceptible to essentially outsourcing its mining problems to less-regulated countries. For example, last October, the Department of Energy used the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to give a $141.7 million grant to Piedmont Lithium, which is building a plant in Tennessee to expand U.S. supply of lithium hydroxide, used in long-range batteries for electric vehicles. In March, Blue Orca Capital, a hedge fund, said it was “shorting,” or betting against the stock of Piedmont Lithium, alleging that the spodumene the firm plans to refine into lithium at its Tennessee facility was guaranteed by bribes to the son of a high-level politician in Ghana—“because of corruption,” those raw materials are likely to never come to fruition, the hedge fund says. Piedmont denies the allegations and says in a statement provided to TIME that the Minerals Income Investment Fund of Ghana told the company that it has valid licenses and permits for all its current activities.

Most of the proposed critical materials mines in the U.S. are not near a big population center—or economic activity, and some communities are in favor of a mine for the jobs it would create. But the proposed locations could instead lead to situations where sparsely populated communities don’t learn about a planned mine until it’s too late to stop it. “It can feel really fast—all of a sudden an enormous project is being proposed next door to you, it took years for the company to prospect but you didn’t hear about it ‘til now,” says Riofrancos.

The Freemans’ mine is not one of these projects. Though it is five miles from the nearest town, Maine is going through an extensive review process to decide whether to let the couple keep digging. Earlier in 2023, there were seven bills in the legislature regarding the potential of mining lithium in Maine. Lawmakers ultimately settled on legislation that may open the door to extracting the Freemans’ lithium by allowing larger open pit metal mines, so long as developers can prove they won’t pollute groundwater and the local environment. But the new law will require changing the state’s mining regulations, which may mean it could be years before the couple is able to start digging in earnest.

The Freemans say their mine would not pollute the surrounding land and water, as the chemical composition of the crystals and the rocks around them is such that they would not dissolve into dangerous acid when exposed to air and water. Geologists that TIME/Maine Monitor spoke with agree with that assessment. Further, the crystals, says Mary, would be shipped out of state in large chunks for processing, so there would be no chemical ponds or tailings.

Many geologists agree that the Freemans’ proposal would not be as disruptive as other proposed mines across the country. Other metals (like nickel, silver, and zinc) typically occur in bands of rock deep below the surface that contain iron sulfides, which create sulfuric acid when exposed to air and water, polluting waterways for decades, a phenomenon known as acid mine drainage. Some spodumene crystals at Plumbago North, by contrast, have been naturally exposed to air and water for hundreds of millions of years and not broken down.

On a visit to the test quarry this spring, Gary Freeman pointed out one large piece of spodumene lying at the bottom of a nearby brook, the water over it rushing fast and clear, not the rusty orange of an acid-contaminated stream. (The waterway is known, fittingly, as Spodumene Brook.) “The water is so good Poland Spring wants to bottle it and sell it,” says Mary.

Still, Morrill, of Earthworks, says there’s just not enough research about the effects of hard rock spodumene mining to say for sure that the mine wouldn’t harm the environment. Since so many people in Maine depend on recreation and tourism for their livelihoods, she says, it makes the most sense to keep protective regulations in place.

Maine’s Department of Environmental Protection has rejected the Freemans’ request to consider the land a quarry, and is instead classifying spodumene as a metallic mineral. As the law stands, the Freemans will have to apply for permits under Maine’s 2017 Metallic Mineral Mining Act, a costly process (the application processing fee alone is $500,000) that would take years.

Meanwhile, the local community is divided. After all, in Maine it’s not difficult to find people still living with the long-term damage of older mines. On the other hand, many Mainers are pragmatic and understand the state has long, dark winters, and will need battery storage for any renewable energy it generates on sunny or windy days. The alternative is to continue relying on fossil fuels, which would exacerbate climate change.

Myles Felch, curator at the Maine Mineral and Gem Museum, is one of these practical Mainers. He was raised in Union, where a groundswell of opposition has formed to resist a proposal by Canada-based Exiro Minerals to look for nickel near a beloved local pond. Felch isn’t thrilled with the prospect, but also knows we can’t continue to be so detached from the minerals we use in our daily life.

“I love the place where I grew up and I wouldn’t want anything to ever happen to it,” says Felch. But “you need mineral resources. Most people were probably texting ‘stop the mine’ with a nickel cobalt battery in their phones.”

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Wind power stations of German utility RWE, one of Europe's biggest electricity companies are pictured in front of RWE's brown coal fired power plants of Neurath near Jackerath, north-west of Cologne, Germany, March 18, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

Germany adds 60% more onshore wind power in H1 but pace seen too slow

The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports to Germany last year highlighted the hazards of relying on imports and emphasized the urgency of implementing a local energy plan.

Reuters by Vera Eckert, July 18, 2023

FRANKFURT, July 18 (Reuters) - Germany added 60% more onshore wind capacity in the first half of 2023 than a year earlier at a total of 1,565 megawatts (MW), but needs far more to reach its 2030 target, wind industry lobbies said on Tuesday.

Wind power is central to Germany's transition to renewable energy as Berlin aims to generate at least 80% of electricity output by 2030 from green sources such as solar and wind, to lower carbon emissions.

The roll-out has become more pressing with the drop of Russian fossil fuel exports to Germany last year, demonstrating the risks of reliance on imports and the need for local energy.

Associations BWE and the VDMA Power Systems engineering group, which represent turbine makers including Nordex (NDXG.DE), Vestas Deutschland (VWS.CO) and GE Deutschland (GE.N), issued statistics showing that the 1,565 MW total compared with 977 MW added in the first half of 2022.

The organisations credited the government's interventions in favour of building activity and the speeding of permits for the increase.

Assuming these developments will continue, they expect that at least the upper end of a full-year projection made in January for additions totalling 2,700-3,200 MW will be reached this year, said Baerbel Heidebroek, BWE's president, at a virtual news conference.

However, even the significantly increased permit numbers are not enough to achieve growth rates of 10,000 MW per year from 2025, which would be necessary to achieve the government's green energy targets for 115,000 MW of onshore wind in 2030, she said.

"We must streamline and tighten the approval procedures and set strict deadlines," she added.

Dennis Rendschmidt, VDMA Power Systems' managing director, said approvals for heavy road transports of parts are taking an average of 12 weeks in Germany compared with four to five days in the Netherlands.

Ministries outside the economy ministry run by the Greens' Robert Habeck and state and local authorities should cooperate better, the two organisations said.

Germany's total installed onshore wind capacity had reached 59,343 MW at the end of June 2023, the data from the two organisations showed.

This represented a net increase of 4.4% from a year earlier, after accounting for dismantling and revamps of existing turbines.

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Image: An artist’s rendering shows Westinghouse’s planned AP300 small modular nuclear power reactor, which the company officially unveiled on May 4, 2023, and hopes will be built in the United States and around the world. Westinghouse/Handout via REUTERS

Britain opens small nuclear reactor competition, launches new nuclear body

Ambitious Plan: Boosting Nuclear Power to Meet Climate Targets

Reuters by Susanna Twidale, July 18, 2023

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Britain on Tuesday opened a competition to develop small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), such as those being developed by Rolls-Royce (RR.L), as it launched its new Great British Nuclear body designed to help drive the expansion of projects in the country.

Britain is aiming to increase its nuclear power capacity to 24 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 as part of efforts to meet climate targets and boost energy security. That would meet around a quarter of projected electricity demand, up sharply from about 14% today.

Large new nuclear projects, with high upfront costs, have struggled to attract financing and the government hopes some older plants could be replaced by a fleet of SMRs which can be made in factories, with lower costs and faster construction.

Companies can, from Tuesday, register their interest in the government’s SMR competition. The Great British Nuclear body, also launched on Tuesday, will select technologies that have met the criteria in the Autumn.

The competition "could result in billions of pounds of public and private sector investment," Secretary of State for Energy Security, Grant Shapps said.

Companies selected will then start discussions as part of an Invitation to Negotiate phase, the government said.

The SMR competition was first announced alongside the budget in March this year.

In 2021 the government committed 210 million pounds to Rolls-Royce for its 500-million pound SMR programme which could see the company open factories to build the reactors in Britain.

Britain previously announced a competition for SMRs in the 2015 Autumn Statement which ultimately closed in 2017 without moving beyond the initial, information-gathering first stage.

Along with SMRs the government said it is committed to large-scale new projects, such as EDF’s (EDF.PA) Hinkley Point C, the first new plant in more than 20 years, and EDF’s Sizewell C in which the government has invested around 700 million pounds, becoming a 50% shareholder in the development phase.

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An illustration of Widerøe's electric aircraft Foto: Rolls-Royce

Pioneers in Green Aviation: Could Norwegian Electric Planes Be a Model for the Rest of the World?

The global aviation industry has a massive climate problem, and many are looking to Norway for a possible solution. The country wants all short-haul flights to be conducted with electric planes as early as 2040. But doubts persist about whether the technology will be ready.

Spiegel by Marcus Efler, 18.07.2023

The days when airliners took off from Säve airfield near the Swedish city of Gothenburg are long gone. What's left now is an access road with a rusty gate, wooden barracks in an advanced state of decay and a container village that is used as a hostel. Anyone wishing to visit Heart Aerospace has to seek out the only new building on the forested site.

That's where the startup is tinkering with the future of passenger aviation, which is currently plagued by concerns about the climate, at least for short-haul flights. English is spoken on the company's premises, and 200 employees from more than 30 nations work in plain, open-plan offices in the main building and adjacent containers, as well as in two large hangars.

In one, components are made by hand; in the other, a metallic skeleton in the shape of an airplane reaches up to the ceiling. Soon, what currently looks almost like a dinosaur skeleton will hopefully become an aircraft of the future: the Heart ES-30, a high-wing aircraft with 30 seats, four electric motors on the wings and a five-ton battery in the fuselage.

If, as planned, three prototypes of the Heart ES-30 actually take off for their first test flight in 2026 and serially-manufactured planes are then delivered to airlines, the Swedish aircraft would be the first electric aircraft to meet international Part 25 certification standards. It is the highest standard class -- applying, for instance, to the Airbus A380 superjumbo.

The impetus for the electric aircraft came from neighboring Norway. "From 2040, short-haul flights in Norway will have to be 100 percent electric," says Markus Kochs-Kämper, Heart's chief engineer, who hails from Germany. "We think battery-powered electric motors are the best solution."

Following the country's radical switch to electric cars, Norway is also set to become a pioneer in zero-emissions aviation with its strict requirements. The regulation is to apply to all flights lasting up to one and a half hours, including cross-border services. Scandinavia is becoming a pioneering region for green aviation, moving ahead at a speed much faster than the rest of the European Union. The new rules, which were quickly implemented, could also have an effect on airlines like Germany's Lufthansa.

A Laboratory for Electric Aviation

But how realistic is such a rushed transition? The certification of new aircraft by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and its U.S. counterpart, the FAA, alone, can take years.

What is clear is that something has to change. Airplanes are responsible for around 2 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. And Norway is particularly well suited as a real-world laboratory for an experiment like electric aviation. Because of its exceptionally beautiful but difficult-to-access landscape, airplanes are often the only way for people to stay connected there besides smartphones and the internet. "It takes hours to drive a car around a fjord," says Kochs-Kämper, "a plane only takes a few minutes."

Fewer than 5.5 million inhabitants live in an area roughly the size of Germany, and its population density is far lower.

"It takes hours to drive a car around a fjord. A plane only take a few minutes." Markus Kochs-Kämper, chief engineer

Remote regions are barely served by roads and even less by rail. The widespread expansion of roads and railways are impeded by nearly 40,000 lakes larger than four hectares and up to 300 mountains whose peaks rise at least 2,000 meters above sea level.

It's no wonder, then, that Norway maintains a disproportionately large number of airports, with at least 50 served by regular flights. "Given the population distribution, short-haul flights undoubtedly make sense," says Markus Fischer, a divisional group leader for aeronautics at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), who is following developments in Norway with interest.

Cautious Optimism

Another argument in favor of the electrification of the Scandinavian skies is that almost all the electricity in Norway – close to 90 percent – is generated in a climate-neutral way using hydropower. Natural gas and other fossil fuels are hardly to be found in the Norwegian electricity mix.

As such, conditions are perfect for electrically powered seaplanes like the ones currently being developed by the Norwegian startup Elfly. They are building a high-wing aircraft with nine seats and two propellers engines powered by batteries, in partnership with the Norwegian Research Council. Called the Noemi ("no emissions"), the high-wing plane is expected to land in fjords on the west coast to drop off passengers and cargo starting in 2030.

The country's largest regional airline, Widerøe, is also seeking to push forward green aviation. Three-quarters of Widerøe flights are over distances shorter than 300 kilometers, with many of them less than half that distance. However, classic propeller-driven aircraft burn a disproportionate amount of fuel, especially during takeoff. Switching to electric aircraft would be worthwhile not only for the climate, but also economically.

There is also "massive political pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in aviation, as well," says Widerøe CEO Andreas Kollbye Aks. He is optimistic that he will be able to achieve the required electrification, but he is also quick to qualify that claim. "We're starting with flights on the west coast in the south, avoiding weather fronts or even landing in strong winds – energy-consuming tasks that electric aviation isn't yet ready to handle." Does that mean that the idea of electric aviation is still a utopian one?

Enthusiasm about the opportunities offered by the new technology has always been accompanied by persistent doubts about whether it can become reality. There have been reasons for skepticism. The aircraft manufacturer Tecnam, for example, has already halted construction of its own electric plane due to doubts about its suitability for everyday use. The Italian company had originally planned to introduce an 11-seat aircraft to the market and deliver it to Widerøe, but development of the P-Volt model has been put on hold.

How Long Do the Batteries Really Last?

The company mainly sees problems with its forecasted efficiency and sustainability. The company, based in Capua near Naples, recently announced that its assumptions had been based on "extremely aggressive" scenarios for technological development. In other words: Their hope rests on a leap in battery technology -- though no one knows when or if it will even come.

The aging of the power storage units after only a few weeks of operation and the associated decrease in range also frightened the developers. According to Tecnam's calculations, even with extremely gentle handling, the capacity falls below a critical value after just a few hundred hours of operation. Airlines would then be forced to buy new batteries – and the operating costs for the planes would be horrendous. Tecnam thus came to a clear assessment in its statement: The all-electric passenger aircraft is the "Green Transition flagship" rather than a real player in the decarbonization of aviation, it says.

So, is electric flight just a fanciful dream that might be good for a little airline greenwashing? Jet engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce isn't on board. "We are very proud to be able to contribute to sustainable aviation," says Matheu Parr, who is responsible for the British company's nascent business for customers of electric aircraft.

In the past, the company specialized in gigantic jet engines that hang under the wings of the Airbus A380, for instance, and burn tons of jet fuel. Now they are also working on cleaner planes: Its electric engine, a duo of four-blade propellers driven by electric motors each rated at 350 kilowatts, was supposed to be used on Tecnam's P-Volt.

Rolls-Royce is disappointed by the end of the project, because the manufacturer had hoped to gain important insights for the development of further e-engines. But the company is still sticking to its plan. "The market is demanding sustainable solutions, which is why we will continue to push electric and hybrid engines," the company says.

Parr sees electric propulsion as the optimal solution for aircraft with nine to 19 seats that have to cover distances "of 40 to 50 nautical miles," around 90 kilometers, which is practically nothing in aviation. For longer distances, developers of the technology have so far been faced with a dilemma that is almost impossible to resolve. The more non-stop flight time an aircraft is expected to achieve, the larger and heavier the battery becomes, which in turn consumes energy. Electric cars have the same problem, but it is much greater for aircraft, which are particularly sensitive to weight. And it is reinforced by the fact that, for safety reasons, the power storage units have to supply energy for twice as long as would actually be needed for the route in question, so that the aircraft could still reach another airport or can circle in the air in case of emergency.

Finding the Right Partners

Batteries with a large capacity also have correspondingly long charging times. What is a significant annoyance for drivers of electric cars on long trips could pose a challenge for airlines' business model. An aircraft that has to be charged for hours at the destination airport before it can take off again is no good for fast-turnaround short-haul traffic. Even the Megawatt Charging System (MDC), which pumps batteries full of up to 3.75 megawatts of charging power, can't eliminate the problem – even though that's more than 10 times what fast chargers for electric cars currently offer as a maximum.

Widerøe wants to ensure that its aircraft can take off again 15 minutes after landing. That's why the airline and Rolls-Royce are relying on battery swaps. "It takes about five minutes to change batteries," promises Qinyin Zhang, the man responsible for Rolls-Royce's short-haul electric aircraft business, "whereas charging can take up to three hours."

Widerøe is continuing to pursue its electric aspirations and hasn't been deterred by the demise of P-Volt. "Our plans are not affected by this," says Aks, the Widerøe CEO. He adds that they will test with other partners whether new, sustainable aircraft can be operated economically. "Although the concept has not yet proven to be viable, that could change as the technology continues to mature," Aks says, referring to Tecnam.

Just an Interim Solution?

At the airfield in Säve, however, the people at Heart Aerospace are not convinced by the concept of swapping batteries. Kochs-Kämper, the chief engineer, says that specialists are needed to replace the batteries without making mistakes. He says it is also uncertain whether they will always be ready on time.

The Swedes are instead relying on a different solution: Two turbo motors are to be mounted at the rear of their aircraft that can run on sustainably produced fuel. When needed, they can kick in and increase the range to 400 kilometers. That would also solve the safety problems. Drivers are familiar with the principle through the range extenders that manufacturers included in early electric cars like the first-generation BMW i3. Heart calls it a "reserve hybrid system."

This crutch has since disappeared in modern battery-powered vehicles, and the era of plug-in hybrids is drawing to a close. In the air, too, the electricity-fuel mix is only considered to be a temporary solution.

"As battery technology develops, there will no longer be a need for such interim solutions," says DLR expert Fischer. He points to new storage technologies such as condensed matter batteries, which at 500 watt-hours per kilogram of net weight are said to have about twice the energy density of lithium-ion batteries.

Heart Aerospace has designed its electric plane in a way that will allow airlines to incorporate more efficient energy storage once it becomes available. That would also be a battery swap of sorts, but it would only happen rarely and during major maintenance.

"We Want To Keep the Aircraft as Conventional as Possible"

The first airlines have already placed orders for the Heart airplane. So far, North American companies have been the main buyers of the aircraft, which is actually tailor-made for Norway. Mesa, a regional carrier based in Phoenix, as well as United Airlines and Air Canada have already ordered a total of 25 ES.30s, with options on a further 100. Heart says it is in talks with Northern European airlines, including SAS and Icelandair.

Meanwhile, as hobby pilots' single-engine Cessnas rattle above Säve's run-down airfield, the Heart ES-30 is taking off in a simulator inside the "Integrated Test Facility" as the corresponding Heart hanger is called.

When the simulator's four thrust levels are pushed forward, an electric buzz sounds from behind – future passengers and residents near the airport will probably not hear much more than that and the whirl of the propeller.

The plane reaches 90 knots, or just under 170 kilometers per hour, after a relatively short distance. With a light tug of the control stick, the high-wing aircraft takes off.

Sitting in the left-hand seat, Peter, the Heart test pilot, retracts the flaps and landing gear. At an altitude of 2,500 feet, he moves the joystick to the right: The ES-30 tilts into the curve. Then it turns to the left as it prepares to land again. There is little distinguishing the handling of the ES-30 from that of regional aircraft with turboprops. At least in the flight simulator.

The design of the passenger cabin, which is shown as a one-to-one model, also doesn't look any different. "Apart from the propulsion system, we want to keep the aircraft as conventional as possible," explains Kochs-Kämper. For example, the fuselage isn't made of carbon, but of the usual light metals. The interior is kept classic and functional. Too much innovation at once would overload the development just as it would later overwhelm the passengers.

Opportunities for Small Airports

The biggest difference for planners and pilots is the relatively short takeoff distance of 750 meters for an aircraft of this size. People are also familiar with this effect from electric cars. Through their disproportionately higher torque, e-motors generate enormous thrust.

Airlines like Widerøe would thus be able to fly even to the smallest airfields in the future, ones whose runways are currently too short for conventional aircraft. The higher purchase price of the planes would be offset by low operating and maintenance costs. According to Rolls-Royce expert Parr, electric aircraft have an operating cost of just 65 cents per passenger per nautical mile, compared to at least 85 cents for a comparable propeller plane. "The operational cost of a 50-seat electric aircraft will be the same as a 30-seat conventional aircraft," predicts Simon Newitt, Heart's customer service manager.

Given this, the promise of clean mobility by air is is accompanied by hope for a new, small boom in flying, thanks to lower ticket prices. In Germany, too, where short-haul flights are currently viewed critically, enthusiasm for the new technology in the industry is also growing. "With low-emission engines, short-haul services that have been discontinued in Germany could also be resumed," says DLR expert Fischer. "And smaller airports could also be added to the route network."

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News round-up, July 17, 2023

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Quote of the days…

Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed

Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.

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Most read…

El Salvador in the grip of the 'Bukele system'

Bukele has aligned himself with a group of Latin American leaders, including Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras, who are willing to ignore constitutional limits to extend their time in power.

 Le Monde by Angeline Montoya, published yesterday at 5:00 pm (Paris)

Big Heat and Big Oil

A rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating that has caused extreme damage in recent weeks; and that rapid end is possible.

The New Yorker By Bill McKibben, July 16, 2023

Vietnam's big bet on LNG may not ease its power crisis

Vietnam's urgent need to improve its electricity supply, which has been exposed by recent power outages, has raised concerns among foreign investors about Vietnam's reliability as a viable option for diversifying manufacturing operations away from China.

Reuters By Francesco Guarascio, Emily Chow and Khanh Vu, July 17, 2023

EU considers gas imports from Argentina, document shows

The draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) emphasizes the common objectives of both parties in reducing global warming.

Reuters by Kate Abnett, July 17, 2023

Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed

Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.

Reuters, July 17, 2023

Russia-Ukraine War: “Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia

A deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was the latest blow to a Russian military already dealing with internal strife.

NOW/The New York Time

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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SOPA IMAGES/ Editing by Germán & Co

El Salvador in the grip of the 'Bukele system'

Bukele has aligned himself with a group of Latin American leaders, including Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras, who are willing to ignore constitutional limits to extend their time in power.

 Le Monde by Angeline Montoya, published yesterday at 5:00 pm (Paris)

InvestigationNayib Bukele, the president of the Central American country, enjoys great popularity thanks to his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his fight against gangs. But his opponents criticize increasingly frequent breaches of democratic principles.

Nayib Bukele has won a war. The Salvadoran president often boasts on Twitter: "We're not the same anymore." Four years of "Bukeleism" have changed the face of El Salvador. Its 6.6 million nationals adore him, someot idolize him. He succeeded where all the others failed in defeating the pandillas, the gangs that have bloodied the country – and the Central American region – for more than two decades. Almost every day, Bukele tweets to his 5.2 million followers: "Another day with zero homicides," an assertion that has an undeniable impact when seven years earlier, there were almost 20 murders a day in the country.

The changes were noticeable when strolling through the streets of San Salvador, the capital. That day, children were playing football in a square. A couple was about to enjoy a drink on a terrace. A woman visited a friend. These scenes of everyday life were unthinkable just two years ago when gangs were sowing terror, extorting money from businesses, controlling entrances and exits to neighborhoods, threatening residents, and even banning the brands of sneakers worn by rival gangs.

The turning point came on March 27, 2022. After a particularly deadly weekend – authorities reported 87 murders – that undermined his stated policy of reducing crime, the president declared a war on gangs, greeted by the applause of an exasperated population. He also declared a state of emergency, which is still in force today. He deployed the army in the streets, surrounded entire towns to root out gang members, the pandilleros, and threw 70,000 people into prison. As a result, 1.6% of the population is now behind bars, the highest incarceration rate in the world. One year and three months later, the facts are striking. The investigative website El Faro verified this by visiting 14 towns previously under criminal groups' thumb. "The gangs do not exist at this moment as El Salvador knew them for decades," it writes.

Bukele, 41, is delighted. In the past, El Faro vilified his strategy against the pandilleros and the international community urged him to respect the rights of the detainees. "Let all the 'human rights' non-governmental organizations know we will wipe out these bloody murderers and their collaborators. We will put them in prison, and they will never get out," he tweeted again on May 17, after the murder of a police officer. Under his tweet were hundreds of replies from ministers, lawmakers, civil servants, journalists close to the government, and influencers, all determined to applaud, even praise, the most beloved president of the American continent. A CID Gallup study recently reported he enjoys a 92% popularity rating.

In the space of four years, the Salvadoran leader has become the model for a portion of the Latin American right. His recipes for tackling crime receive commendations. "El Salvador is a benchmark," said Zury Rios, the daughter of Guatemalan dictator Efrain Rios Montt, who was in power from 1982 to 1983. "He pulled off a real miracle in El Salvador," according to the far-right mayor of Lima, Rafael Lopez Aliaga, believed to be about to launch a "Bukele plan" to combat crime in Peru.

'Almost-religious relationship'

The war has been won, but at what price and for how long? According to numerous reports by local and international human rights organizations, thousands of innocent people have been arrested. Torture and inhuman treatment are "widespread" and "systematic" in prisons. Scores of detainees – at least 153, according to the NGO Cristosal, perhaps twice as many – have died from beatings, starvation, or lack of medical care. Public freedoms and civil society, particularly journalists, are under threat.

Although El Salvador is drifting toward authoritarianism, its residents seem willing to accept anything from the man who has also put an end to the 30-year hegemony of the two parties accused of plundering the country's wealth and increasing corruption to stratospheric levels: the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA, formed from the nationalist right) and the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (a Marxist guerrilla group that became a party after the 1992 peace accords that put an end to 12 years of civil war, FLMN).

"Two phenomena have converged to fuel Bukele's popularity," said analyst Oscar Picardo, director of the Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation at Francisco-Gavidia University in San Salvador. "On the one hand, there was the public's frustration with the corruption of these two parties. On the other, the disruptive figure of a young man, with an enchanting speech, and visually different, with his cap and jeans."

Government propaganda is helping reinforce that image: "Around a hundred videos promoting Bukele's image and policies are posted on social media every day, hammering positive messages and creating a cult of his personality," Picardo said. "An almost-religious relationship has developed between him and the population." A horde of young YouTubers and Twitter users glorify the self-proclaimed "coolest president in the world."

El Filtro, an alliance of four online media outlets, analyzed thousands of videos. On May 17 alone, YouTubers published 31 hours and 45 minutes of pro-Bukele content. "The majority of the population is hypnotized by the government's huge advertising machine," according to Jorge Guzman, a former examining magistrate. "Bukele does not even need to repress rare demonstrations of discontent. Authoritarian governments that repress have become unpopular, as in Nicaragua. This is not the case here."

Bukele knows a thing or two about propaganda. After failing law school, he took over the family advertising business set up by his father, Armando Bukele Kattan, a descendant of Christians from Bethlehem, Palestine. Discriminated against when they arrived in El Salvador at the beginning of the 20th century, Palestinian migrants became prosperous businessmen in the space of a century, imposing themselves on the wealthy local coffee producers to the extent that this minority of barely 1% of the population now accounts for up to 50% of the national economy.

This evolution cannot be explained without the Handals, the Zablahs, the Simans, and the Pomas families. "But the Bukeles were not part of the new elite," said a diplomat based in San Salvador. "Especially since Nayib's father had converted to Islam, founding El Salvador's first mosque, while almost all the Palestinians were Christians. They were doubly discriminated against: Because they were Palestinians, and because they were Muslims."

Demigod

Bukele, born on July 24, 1981, quickly tried to overcome the frustration of not belonging to the dominant class. As a teenager, he soon became a leader. "He was an average student, but he was the boss of a small group of classmates, many of whom joined his cabinet, and he was already sarcastic," said Picardo who was also his middle school social sciences teacher. He uses the same sarcasm to respond to today's critics. "If you like pandilleros so much, come and get them, and take them to your countries," he tells an international community poised to denounce the abuses of his "war on gangs."

In a country considered, like the rest of Central America, as the United States' backyard, his rhetoric against "Yanqui" imperialism and Western diktats on how to govern his country hits the mark. The inclusion in a list of corrupt Central Americans of many high-ranking Salvadoran officials and MPs reinforces the feeling that Washington, as always, wants to assert its rule.

Bukele presents himself as the guarantor of independence against the North American giant, accused of solely defending its interests. "The Americans spent the early days of his mandate publicly humiliating him, notably on Twitter," said a Western diplomatic source. "He managed to turn this into political capital and gain an aura throughout the region, which has good, historical reasons, to be 'anti-Yanqui.'"

Already acclaimed for his leadership as mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlan (2012-2015), a small town on the outskirts of the capital, and then as mayor of San Salvador (2015-2018), in both cases under the FMLN banner, Bukele honed his image as an incorruptible outsider by multiplying attacks on his party, accusing it of having sold out to neoliberalism. So much so that the FMLN decided to expel him in 2017. But the real springboard to his popularity was the Covid-19 pandemic.

The distribution of $300 in subsidies and food baskets made the new head of state, elected in 2019, a demigod in the eyes of the poor and disenfranchised. "No president has ever given me anything," said Rosalinda, a street vendor who has hung a portrait of the revered president delivered with the food baskets in her living room.

With Bukele, there was no conspiracy talk when it came to vaccines. He went out of his way to immunize his population, even affording himself the luxury of sending tens of thousands of doses to neighboring Honduras. In response to the economic crisis, he raised the minimum wage by 20% in August 2021 on the back of a one-year subsidy for small and medium-sized businesses and even subsidized petrol. The measures were hailed by an exsanguinated population ready to flee to the US.

Being the first country to introduce Bitcoin as its national currency also put El Salvador in the international spotlight, giving a sense of pride to a people too often associated with violence. "We signed our independence, but we were never really sovereign," Bukele said on the bicentenary of independence on September 15, 2022. "Now, El Salvador makes its own decisions."

So when he declared in the following sentence before an audience of ministers, senior civil servants, MPs, and ambassadors, that he would again run for the presidency on February 4, 2024, the audience – except for the diplomatic corps – rose to their feet roaring: "Re-election! Re-election!" But three constitutional articles prohibit immediate re-election. Article 88 of El Salvador's Constitution even obliges the population to insurrection in the event of failure to comply with the "indispensable" principle of transfer of power. As for those who "promote or support re-election," Article 74 strips them of citizenship rights. But Bukele does not bother with such details.

Authoritarian

The dismissal of the judges of the constitutional court on May 1, 2021, enabled their replacements to reinterpret the constitution more meekly: In September 2021, they decided that all the president needed to do to stand for re-election was to resign six months before the end of his term. Felix Ulloa, the country's vice president, told Le Monde last year: "The current constitution prohibits immediate re-election." On Sunday, June 25, he and Bukele officially registered as pre-candidates. "Nayib Bukele will resign before December 1, 2023," six months before the end of his current term of office, that is, Ulloa said on television.

Following Daniel Ortega's footsteps in Nicaragua, Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Juan Orlando Hernandez ("JOH") in Honduras, Bukele joined the Latin American heads of state club determined to flout constitutional obstacles to stay in power. "He doesn't want to end up like 'JOH,' extradited to the US for drug trafficking at the end of his mandate," said a Salvadoran source close to the business community. "There's no way he will risk going to prison for taking state money."

Bukele presents himself as a herald of anti-corruption, but severe embezzlement suspicions hang over his government. To date, however, no investigation has been launched. In June 2021, the new prosecutor appointed by the government dismantled the International Commission for the Fight against Impunity in El Salvador (CICIES). Set up by Bukele himself in 2019, it had exposed at least 12 cases involving government members.

On June 1, during his address to the nation to mark his four years in office, Bukele said that, after his war against gangs, he would wage another, this time against corruption. He even promised a special prison for the corrupt, like a "terrorism detention center" designed to house 40,000 pandilleros inaugurated in January. El Salvador's former president Alfredo Cristiani, in office from 1989 to 1994, accused of being "one of the politicians who have done the most harm" to the country, was identified as his first target. "The president is very aggressive against the corruption of the past, but he protects the corruption of the present," said Johnny Wright, a former MP with the ARENA now affiliated with a center-left party. "He aims to wipe out any opposition linked to the ARENA or the FMLN." back to the early days of his mandate. The most serious warning came on February 9, 2020. That day, Bukele stormed the country's Legislative Assembly with military troops to force MPs to vote on funding a program combatting insecurity. He eventually backtracked after receiving a message from God, which asked him to be "patient." According to the international community and part of civil society, the development was dangerous. In the eyes of the population, which loves a strong man, it was a sign that the leader was ready to do anything to defend it against the establishment and the ARENA and FMLN MPs, who still have a majority and are fond of parliamentary obstruction.

'Judicial coup'

A year later, Bukele had his revenge. Nuevas Ideas (New Ideas, NI), the party he founded after being expelled from the FMLN, won two-thirds of the seats in the February 2021 legislative elections. The assembly, from that point dominated by his supporters, immediately dismissed the country's attorney general, in addition to magistrates of the constitutional tribunal. Appointed by the ARENA and the FMLN, they had blocked some of Bukele's initiatives during the first wave of Covid-19.

"Salvadorans returning from a trip, or others who failed to comply with quarantine requirements, were locked up for almost two months in detention centers without being given the results of their tests, or were contaminated on the spot," said Antonio Duran, a judge with the Zacatecoluca city court. "Some died for lack of treatment. The court then ordered their release, which led Bukele to say that the magistrates wanted the Salvadorans dead."

As for the attorney general, Raul Melara, he was investigating, with CICIES, corruption cases affecting the president's allies. "May 1, 2021, was one of the saddest days of my life," said Wright, who also took office that day. "We knew it would be a disruptive assembly, but nobody expected that. Looking back, we realize that judiciary control was an essential step for everything to follow."

A few days later, the new prosecutor, Rodolfo Delgado, terminated the CICIES' mandate. Bukele was able to govern without any checks and balances.

But he did not stop there. At the end of August 2021, he ordered the retirement of judges over 60 or with more than 30 years of service. They had the option of staying on for another five years, but on condition that they made themselves available to the Supreme Court. "This was a way of making them give up their independence since the government now controls the Court," said Guzman. Around a hundred magistrates took the deal on offer. Guzman resigned.

The best-trained and most experienced magistrates were either dismissed or moved to less central jurisdictions and replaced by colleagues easier to influence. This was the case of Duran, transferred from San Salvador to Zacatecoluca after criticizing a "judicial coup." "The idea was to isolate us from each other," he said.

There was no possibility of appeal. "The government co-opts all bodies: The police, the public prosecutor's office, the courts, the Supreme Court," said a judge who has also moved away from the capital and spoke on condition of anonymity. The same goes for the National Judicial Council, the Audit Office, and the Supreme Electoral Court. "We are no longer in the law but in the arbitrary," the judge said. Hector Gustavo Villatoro, the Salvadoran minister of justice, did not respond to interview requests by Le Monde.

Resentment

None of this has dented Bukele's popularity. "He was able to read the Salvadoran population," said anthropologist and journalist Juan Martinez d'Aubuisson, a gang specialist. "The population believes in authoritarianism, thinks that violence is didactic and a way of solving problems."

"One thing is that it's popular; another is that it's a good thing," emphasized Claudia Ortiz, an MP with the right-wing Christian Democrat party Vamos, founded in 2017, of which she is the sole representative in the Assembly. According to Ortiz, the reasons for the government's stated successes are not necessarily those people think.

Independent media have shown, for example, that the drop in homicides, which began before Bukele came to power and continued thereafter, was not so much due to government policy as to an agreement forged with the gangs. The murder of 87 people on the deadly weekend in March 2022, was the result of a breach of this agreement. Recordings revealed close contact between a high-ranking civil servant and criminal group leaders. Hundreds of disappearances were also reportedly not taken into account.

All previous governments have stumbled over the pandilla problem. Various methods have been tried – repression, secret or open negotiations with the gangs – to no avail. Bukele, on the other hand, has succeeded in establishing that he is the only one to have faced the problem and taken radical measures.

But among human rights activists and security experts, fears of yet another cycle of violence are high: "The [crackdown] campaign could generate resentment and perhaps backlash from gang members," warned the International Crisis Group in a report. According to researcher and security expert Jeannette Aguilar, the arbitrary arrests of innocent people are part of "an intimidation approach designed to instill fear in the population. The message is also aimed at opposition sectors and critical voices."

Members of NGOs, judges, and independent journalists are perceived as enemies. Journalists from El Faro, Revista Factum, Gato Encerrado, and La Prensa Grafica are in the crosshairs. Some 35 of them were spied on with Israel's Pegasus surveillance software, which the government denies having used.

A law passed in April 2022 punishes with 15 years' imprisonment anyone who transmits messages from the pandillas "likely to generate anxiety and panic among the population." When interviewed by Le Monde in August 2022, Ulloa admitted that the law was primarily aimed at journalists. El Faro was forced to move its administrative headquarters to Costa Rica to escape the pressure.

Public information, on the other hand, is systematically classified as a "state secret." Whether it concerns statistics on homicides, femicides, disappearances, Bitcoin purchases, or health policy, everything is confidential. "The government launches projects that are used for publicity, but then there's no way of knowing whether they've been useful, what the results have been," Ortiz said. "We have to take the government's word for it." The country's evolution is such that Duran and Guzman no longer hesitate to speak of "dictatorial drift." "We've gone back to the worst days of the armed conflict," Duran said. In such a context, the opposition struggles to make itself heard, crushed by the weight of MPs affiliated with NI and their allies. Bills are introduced at night, without consultation, and voted on the next day. The lack of "minimum working conditions" is why Wright has decided not to stand for re-election in 2024.

'Achilles' heel'

One year before the end of his mandate, Bukele is pursuing his policy of concentrating power. In early June, with the official aim of limiting state spending and fighting corruption, he passed a law reducing the number of seats in the Assembly from 84 to 60 and the number of municipalities from 262 to 44.

The international community is struggling to strike a balance between the diatribes uttered, to no effect, by Washington and the circumspection of the Europeans, anxious not to cut off the channels of communication with the government. "International bodies such as the United Nations and the Organization of American States have demonstrated that they do not have sufficient tools to curb the advance of authoritarianism in the region, including Nicaragua and Guatemala," Wright said. "The international community simply doesn't know what to do."

For some experts, the Bukele system can only be overcome if the economic situation deteriorates. "For the moment, the situation is stable," Picardo said, "but the government is going to need oxygen, and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund [IMF] are still at a standstill because of Bitcoin," something the IMF does not want to hear about. Admittedly, "country risk" – a measure of the risk of a government defaulting on its debts – has eased somewhat this year following the repayment of an $800 million bond maturity in January. As for inflation (7.3% in 2022), it remains under control compared with neighboring countries. But foreign investors are skeptical. "The economy will become the government's Achilles' heel," according to Picardo. "Bukele has spent millions organizing the World Surfing Championships and the Miss Universe ceremony. This will last another two or three years."

Wilson Sandoval, a political scientist and member of El Salvador's Center for Anti-Corruption Legal Advice, is convinced that while the regime is, for the time being, "a sophisticated dictatorship that doesn't yet need bloodshed," it is following the same path as Nicaragua. "Daniel Ortega also had very high levels of popularity at the start of his first term, around 80%," he said. "But then the population got fed up and ended up taking its authoritarian leaders to the scaffold. It may take ten years, but that's what's going to happen."

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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Illustration by João Fazenda

Big Heat and Big Oil

The New Yorker By Bill McKibben, July 16, 2023

A rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating that has caused extreme damage in recent weeks; and that rapid end is possible.

In the list of ill-timed corporate announcements, historians may someday give pride of place to one made by Wael Sawan, the new C.E.O. of Shell, the largest energy company in Europe. In 2021, Shell said that it would reduce oil and gas production by one to two per cent a year up to 2030—a modest gesture in the direction of an energy transition. But Sawan, who assumed command of the company in January, signalled a different direction. The rise in oil and natural-gas prices, following the invasion of Ukraine, had doubled Shell’s annual profits, to a record forty billion dollars. That windfall had an effect. While Shell remains committed to fighting climate change, Sawan told the BBC, cutting fossil-fuel production would actually be “dangerous and irresponsible,” because doing so could cause the “cost of living” to start to “shoot up.” (The company has also said that it already met the target it set in 2021 through asset sales, which would include the sale of various drilling sites to ConocoPhillips—a step that seems unlikely to fool the atmosphere.)

The BBC aired the interview on July 6th—the day that many scientists believe was the hottest so far in human history. Since 1979, a global network of satellites, ocean buoys, and land stations has been recording average daily temperatures, measured two metres above the ground, around the world. We’re at the very start of what seems likely to be a major El Niño warming event; the previous global high temperature came at the height of the El Niño in 2016, when the average hit 16.92 degrees Celsius, or 62.45 degrees Fahrenheit. Estimates vary somewhat, but on July 3rd the average temperature reached 17.01 C, and three days later it hit 17.23 C, or 63.01 F. Scientists who calculate historic temperatures by examining proxy records, such as lake sediments or ice cores, believe that this may well be the hottest it’s been on Earth since at least the peak of an era known as the Eemian, a hundred and twenty-five thousand years ago, when rising temperatures pushed mastodons north from present-day Texas to the Yukon. This would mean that nothing even remotely resembling a human civilization has ever known a world this hot.

To use Sawan’s first adjective, that heat is clearly dangerous. The fires and floods that have occurred in just these past weeks, all of them exacerbated by the heat, are too numerous to even begin to list here. If you’re not in a place currently experiencing or recovering from some weather emergency, consider yourself lucky, and use the respite to make preparations for the inevitable. (There was something symbolic about last week’s historic flooding in the Hudson Valley overwhelming West Point, the spiritual heart of what many might call the most powerful human force ever assembled.) The damage goes well beyond what you can capture in a cell-phone video: estimates indicate that at least forty per cent of the world’s oceans are currently undergoing what biologists have dubbed “marine heat waves,” doing systemic damage that we can only guess at; the temperature of the ocean, like that of the air, has never been higher in human history.

To use Sawan’s other adjective, standing by as this warming happened is the most irresponsible thing that humans have ever done. In June, 1988, the nasa scientist James Hansen told Congress to expect more or less what we saw last week. Fossil-fuel companies were already aware of the risks, but they decided to deny the science of climate change through three decades, when we could have been doing preventive work. There’s always been a reason for oil companies to stand in the way of action. At the moment, Sawan cites the risk of temporary inflation, and also the idea that, if we don’t expand oil and gas production, children in the Global South—he mentioned Bangladesh and Pakistan in particular—will have to study by “the light of candles.”

But solar lights that can shine all night charged with just four hours of sunlight can be had for a dollar, and Bangladesh is a world leader in small-scale solar. In recent years, homes in that country that do not get their power from the national grid have relied on rooftop solar panels to cope with power cuts. As for Pakistan, last fall it had the worst flooding in at least a decade—the kind of sustained deluge that happens only on a heating planet where the air holds increased amounts of water vapor. It left a third of the country underwater, and, more than six months later, unicef estimated that twenty million Pakistanis in the flood zones, including nine million children, were still in need of humanitarian aid.

The Earth’s temperature is going to go higher, no matter what we do: this month’s all-time records will almost certainly be broken in the coming year, as the new El Niño gathers strength. Many scientists predict that we will at least temporarily pass the 1.5-degree-Celsius increase that nations vowed, in the Paris Climate Agreement, to try to avoid. But how much higher is still an open question: a rapid end to burning fossil fuel would arrest the heating; and that rapid end is possible, because solar and wind power and batteries to store it are now cheap and available. Texas got through an epic heat wave in the past few weeks largely because it has increased its solar and wind capacity, which kept air-conditioners running even as conventional power plants faltered.

But, in Texas, the Republican-led legislature spent much of the past year at work on laws that would discourage the use of renewables and prop up oil and gas. In Congress and on the campaign trail, the G.O.P. is expending far more energy in defending gas stoves than in doing anything about this growing crisis. So far, there’s no real political penalty for that kind of reckless behavior. Indeed, Sawan told the BBC that, while there are not currently any plans, Shell wouldn’t rule out moving its headquarters from the United Kingdom to the United States, where oil companies get higher market prices for their shares. (Britain has also implemented a windfall-profits tax on energy companies. ) This suggested to him that the U.S. is more supportive of oil and gas companies, and, as he has told investors, he wants to “reward our shareholders today and far into the future.”

That is pretty much the definition of “business as usual,” and it’s precisely what has generated this completely unprecedented heat. If the disasters we’re seeing this month aren’t enough to shake us out of that torpor, then the chances of our persevering for another hundred and twenty-five thousand years seem remote. 

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Model of LNG tanker is seen in this illustration taken May 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/Editing by Germán & Co

Vietnam's big bet on LNG may not ease its power crisis

Vietnam's urgent need to improve its electricity supply, which has been exposed by recent power outages, has raised concerns among foreign investors about Vietnam's reliability as a viable option for diversifying manufacturing operations away from China.

Reuters By Francesco Guarascio, Emily Chow and Khanh Vu, July 17, 2023

HANOI, July 17 (Reuters) - Vietnam received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas this month, a milestone for the energy-hungry country, but various hurdles mean it could take years for imported gas to ease the country's long-running power shortages.

Disagreement over pricing, plant construction delays and lack of supply contracts are dogging the Southeast Asian manufacturing hub's adoption of LNG, hampering its ambitions to make imported gas a major fuel, industry insiders say.

Vietnam's urgent need to boost electricity supply, laid bare by recent rolling blackouts, has raised concerns among foreign investors about whether Vietnam can remain a reliable option to diversify manufacturing away from China.

Half the businesses in a June poll by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam said the power crisis had hurt investment plans. Some were considering alternatives or pausing spending on factories.

Failure to execute on its LNG plans would mark another blow to Hanoi's climate goals, which include imported and domestic gas as a transition fuel to reduce coal reliance.

With demand forecast to grow 6% annually for the rest of the decade, Vietnam in May unveiled a $135 billion electricity roadmap that, among other investments, would add 13 power plants fed by gas imported as LNG by 2030.

Integrating LNG into its fuel mix, Vietnam would join neighbours Thailand and Singapore as well as the Philippines, a recent-adopter.

Vietnam's industry ministry did not respond to a request for comment on implementing its LNG plan.

TROUBLED PLANTS

The first LNG shipment reached Vietnam last week. The test cargo of super-chilled gas was sent to state-owned PetroVietnam Gas's (PV Gas) (GAS.HM) new Thi Vai terminal near Ho Chi Minh City for conversion back to gas.

Vietnam targets LNG-sourced gas generating up to 22.4 gigawatts (GW) of power by 2030, enough to power 20 million households and account for nearly 15% of national power supply. But Kaushal Ramesh, an analyst at Oslo-based Rystad Energy, said a realistic expectation was just 5 GW.

Complicating LNG efforts, much of Vietnam's planned gas power investment is directed to the south of the country despite the under-served north's greater vulnerability to blackouts.

The first northern plant that would be fuelled by imported gas is not scheduled to begin operation until the second half of 2027, said its Japanese developer, Tokyo Gas (9531.T).

The first plant due to come online, the Nhon Trach 3 facility being built by state-run PetroVietnam Power (PV Power) (POW.HM) near Ho Chi Minh City, is scheduled to begin operation in late 2024. Industry sources say 2026 or 2027 is more realistic.

The local authority cited delays caused by lack of long-term contracts and problems over funding and permits.

A key hurdle is that PV Power is struggling to agree with grid operator EVN on the volume of purchases and prices for electricity generated from its plants running on imported gas, now some 50% more expensive than domestic gas, people familiar with the talks said.

PV Power wants to sell at least 80% to 90% of its imported gas-fuelled power to EVN at a set price for two decades, while EVN wants to commit to a lower portion, four sources said.

Plant developers are seeking state guarantees on their power contracts with EVN, warning that lenders would not fund their projects otherwise, an industry insider said.

Disagreements over power pricing contributed to a slow uptake of the wind industry, leaving a significant share of wind farms unplugged from the grid for years and stranding at least 4.6 GW of onshore wind capacity, according to an internal document from a Group of Seven nation, seen by Reuters.

Foreign developers of LNG-supplied plants, which include U.S.-based AES (AES.N) and Japan's Marubeni (8002.T), are closely watching the pricing talks, which could set a benchmark for their negotiations.

Takafumi Akino of Tokyo Gas, which is building an LNG terminal and a gas plant in northern Quang Ninh province, predicted "hard negotiations".

PV Power and EVN did not reply to requests for comment.

The biggest proposed plant earmarked for imported gas, a 3.2 GW project developed by Singapore-based Delta Offshore Energy, is undergoing debt restructuring after defaulting on a $10 million loan from Gulf International Holdings, court documents showed.

Delta Offshore did not respond to requests for comment. Gulf International's parent, Thailand-based Gulf Energy Development (GULF.BK), declined to comment.

LOCKING IN SUPPLY

Delays and uncertainty make it harder to secure long-term LNG supplies as Vietnam must compete with other importers. Buyers across China, South and Southeast Asia have inked a slew of multi-year deals this year.

PV Gas said this month it was in talks with U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil and Russia's Novatek on LNG cooperation.

Two trading sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter said PV Gas had been seeking LNG supplies at "unrealistically low prices".

PV Power and EVN did not reply to requests for comment.

Without long-term LNG supply, Vietnam would be exposed to volatile spot prices, which in Asia spiked to a record $70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) last year before sinking to $12/mmBtu now.

"There may be suppliers willing to offload some volume to PV Gas, although this is a completely different risk and credit profile compared to what LNG producers are used to," Rystad's Ramesh said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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A general view shows a special ship, "Neptune", the floating liquefied natural gas terminal, during the inauguration of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal 'Deutsche Ostsee' in the port of Lubmin, Germany January 14, 2023. REUTERS/Annegret Hilse/File Photo

EU considers gas imports from Argentina, document shows

The draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) emphasizes the common objectives of both parties in reducing global warming.

Reuters by Kate Abnett, July 17, 2023

BRUSSELS, July 17 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering possible gas imports from Argentina, which is a net gas importer but plans to expand domestic production, a draft document showed.

A draft memorandum of understanding, which the two sides plan to sign on Monday, said any gas trade should not impact Argentina's own consumption needs, and the two sides' targets to curb climate change.

"The participants endeavour to cooperate towards enabling a stable delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Argentina to the European Union," said the document, seen by Reuters, which could be changed before it is published.

The European Commission declined to comment on the draft.

Argentina has an energy deficit, meaning it needs to import fuel during the months when it consumes the most. It registered a $5 billion energy trade balance deficit in 2022.

But the country, which has the world's second largest unconventional gas reserves, is expanding production at Vaca Muerta, a shale formation in Patagonia.

European countries have for the last year been seeking new gas supplies, after former top supplier Russia cut flows following its invasion of Ukraine.

But the EU also expects its gas use to fall by the end of the decade as it seeks to meet climate change goals. It has said the majority of Russian gas supplies should be replaced with clean sources of energy, not fossil fuels.

Lisa Fischer, Programme Lead at climate think tank E3G, called on the EU to focus on supporting Argentina in developing renewable energy and other solutions that do not cause climate change.

"By the time the Argentinean gas comes online - and they don't even have the full export infrastructure to do so [to export gas to Europe] - I don't think the European Union will need that gas any longer," Fischer said.

The draft document said the two sides would work together in the areas of renewable energy and hydrogen fuel, and endeavour to cut methane emissions in their gas supply chains.

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Image by Germán & Co

Kremlin says it won't cut ties with West, dialogue channels still needed

Mr. Peskov emphasized the extensive level of coordination that exists between the Kyiv regime, Washington, several European capitals, and NATO.

Reuters, July 17, 2023

July 17 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Monday that it knew "very well" that NATO and the United States were providing intelligence to Ukraine but this was not a reason to cut off diplomatic ties with them following an attack on the bridge linking Russia and Crimea.

"In the most acute moments, we need channels for dialogue," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Peskov was asked about a comment by Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova who, without providing evidence, accused Ukraine of carrying out the overnight attack on the bridge with the involvement of Britain and the United States.

"We know very well how deep the coordination is between the Kyiv regime, Washington, a number of European capitals and NATO," Peskov said.

"We know perfectly well how much information comes from NATO and Washington to Kyiv on a permanent basis. Therefore, we have no illusions here."

But a reporter's question about the possibility of cutting diplomatic relations with the West was "not quite correct" because of the need to keep dialogue channels open, he said.

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NYT/Editing by Germán & Co

Russia-Ukraine War: “Explosions on Crimean Bridge Disrupt Key Link to Russia

A deadly attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was the latest blow to a Russian military already dealing with internal strife.

NOW/The New York Time

A predawn assault on a critical bridge linking the occupied Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia forced the temporary closure on Monday of a main artery used by its military to support its troops in southern Ukraine, in yet another blow to a Russian military command that was already dealing with internal strife.

Hours after the attack, Moscow announced that it was pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, an agreement that helped keep global food prices stable. But Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said the attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in the deal were not connected.

Given the deep strategic and symbolic importance of the bridge, Monday’s assault was another embarrassment for Russia’s military leadership, which has been roiled by the fallout from last month’s failed mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group.

Russian officials said two people were killed in the attack and a third was injured. The extent of the damage remained unclear, but the assault again highlighted the vulnerability of this key piece of infrastructure far from the front lines.

Rail service over the bridge resumed Monday morning. But damage to the car lanes — which appeared to leave part of the road tilting, according to video verified by The New York Times — threatened to constrict Russian logistical operations. If the bridge were destroyed or severely damaged, Moscow would be left with a single major land route from Russia along the southern coast of Ukraine to support tens of thousands of soldiers fighting to hold onto territory captured in the first weeks of the invasion.

Pro-war Russian military bloggers and commentators were quick to use the attack on the bridge as evidence of what they said was another failure by the Russian military command. Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who runs a prominent blog about military affairs, said that Ukraine would strike again and again until the link is severed.

The attack came as Ukrainian forces were engaged in a grinding five-week-long counteroffensive aimed at driving Russian forces from areas of southern and eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are dug in behind fields laden with land mines, so the Ukrainian military has been forced to move cautiously and progress has been slow.

Isolating Russian forces in Crimea is an essential part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy, according to analysts. Ukrainian ground forces have been seeking to drive a wedge through the natural land bridge that connects Russia to the peninsula through southern Ukraine, and have repeatedly targeted the bridge that President Vladimir V. Putin ordered be built after Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.

Ukrainian officials offered no comment on the incident on Monday. But they have previously said that the 12-mile-long structure, a road and railway bridge that run in parallel, is a legitimate target because of its vital logistical role in the Kremlin’s war effort.

On Monday, Ukrainian officials celebrated the attack even as they maintained a studied policy of strategic ambiguity, declining to comment on any possible Ukrainian role.

“Any illegal structures used to deliver Russian instruments of mass murder are necessarily short-lived, regardless of the reasons for the destruction,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, said in a statement.

Monday’s assault came a little more than nine months after an Oct. 8 attack on the bridge by an explosives-laden truck forced the closure of one lane of traffic and damaged the railroad tracks.

Ukraine did not officially claim responsibility for that attack until May of this year, when the head of Ukraine’s security service, Vasyl Maliuk, acknowledged that the intelligence services took “certain measures” that allowed for the assault.

The National Anti-Terrorism Committee of the Russian Federation said in a statement that Ukraine attacked the bridge Monday using two maritime drones, a claim that could not be independently verified. Video and photographs verified by The Times showed damage to both sides of the road bridge, with the most significant being along a span of the bridge heading into Russia. One photo also showed a damaged car on the bridge.

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News round-up, July 13, 2023

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Editorial…

Vietnam holds a significant place in Marguerite Duras's soul...

Vietnam, particularly Saigon, has garnered considerable acclaim among readers for its depiction of love and sensuality in Marguerite Duras' renowned literary work, "The Lover."  As we get immersed in a captivating narrative that elicits deep-seated emotions, it is common to disregard the historical context against which the story unfolds. During her time in Saigon, Marguerite developed a deep affection for Huynh Thuy Le, the son of a prosperous Chinese businessman. Despite the significant age difference of twelve years, they met on a ferry that connected Saigon and the Mekong Delta. Over time, their relationship evolved into a romantic one.

The iconic photograph titled "Kim Phuc, The Girl in the Picture" also takes us back to the historical context of the Mekong Delta conflict, a pivotal event that precipitated the Vietnam War.

But Vietnam's history, characterized by a lot of love and hardships, has witnessed remarkable progress in both economic and social spheres in recent decades. Vietnam, initially one of the most impoverished nations in the mid-1980s, successfully attained lower middle-income status in 2010 as a result of a comprehensive economic transformation.

The transformation was initiated by the 1986 "Doi Moi" reforms, which involved the dismantling of the predominantly planned economy, the opening up of the country to international markets and trade, and the implementation of pro-business reforms. These reforms were implemented alongside a comprehensive social agenda, spearheaded by the expansion of education and electricity, with the aim of promoting inclusivity for all.

Vietnam has demonstrated noteworthy advancements in its pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), consistently ranking in the top quartile of SDG performance among emerging market economies for most indicators. Education has been a national priority since the implementation of Doi Moi, with an increasing focus on enhancing its quality. The literacy rate for children aged 15 and above was recorded at 95 percent in 2016, indicating a high level of educational attainment. Additionally, most children in the primary school age group are currently enrolled in educational institutions. Vietnam has successfully attained Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5, which focuses on maternal health, and the nation is making ongoing advancements in the field of healthcare. Infrastructure development has been a crucial factor in Vietnam's economic growth, as evidenced by the substantial contribution of government capital spending, which has averaged nearly 8 percent of GDP per year. Additionally, state-owned enterprises have consistently invested around 5 percent of GDP annually, further bolstering the country's development. These investments have significantly contributed to the expansion of infrastructure stocks, thereby facilitating Vietnam's ability to provide essential infrastructure access to its rapidly expanding industrial and manufacturing sector.

Indeed, it can be argued that Marguerite Duras would be delighted to witness the essence of her beloved Vietnam encapsulated within the persona of Huynh Thuy Le. It is truly inspiring to witness the transformation of this deep affection into a driving force for constructive transformation and progress, ultimately benefiting the collective welfare.

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Most read…

Biden’s economic dream is becoming reality — but how long can he sustain it?

Biden has navigated through two years of pitfalls and emerged with a rallying economy. The White House will take that for now.

Politico.com By ADAM CANCRYN, July 12, 2023

Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea is now NATO’s lake

Expanding the alliance creates big problems for Russia.

POLITICO EU BY LAURA KAYALI, JULY 13, 2023 

Oil prices rise on cooling US inflation, China trade data

Reuters By Jeslyn Lerh, July 13, 2023

AES, PV Gas receive investment policy approval for LNG terminal project in central Vietnam

The venture will be managed by PV Gas and AES Corporation, and is slated to commence operations in 2027, boasting a capacity of 450 TBtu.

theinvestor.vn By Tri Duc, July 13, 2023 

Xi Jinping Chokes Off Crucial Engine of China’s Economy

Foreign direct investment in China fell to $20 billion in the first quarter from $100 billion a year earlier, hurting an already struggling economy

WSJ By Lingling Wei, July 13, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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A White House that has bet President Joe Biden’s political future on the economy’s resilience — so much so that they’re branding it with the president’s name — got the latest encouraging sign Wednesday that its strategy is paying off. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo/ Editing by Germán & Co

Biden’s economic dream is becoming reality — but how long can he sustain it?

Biden has navigated through two years of pitfalls and emerged with a rallying economy. The White House will take that for now.

Politico.com By ADAM CANCRYN, July 12, 2023

“Now he just needs to figure out how to keep it that way…

A White House that has bet Biden’s political future on the economy’s resilience — so much so that they’re branding it with the president’s name — got the latest encouraging sign Wednesday that its strategy is paying off, with new data showing a sharper than expected slowdown in consumer costs.

The measure is a major reversal of fortune for Biden, after two years battling soaring inflation and accusations his agenda had contributed to the pain. But it’s just the latest in a string of economic developments that’s bolstered the administration’s confidence it can set the U.S. on a glide path without first plunging it into a downturn.

“Despite repeated forecasts that recession is just around the corner, the U.S. recovery is solid,” National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard said in a speech at the Economic Club of New York shortly after the inflation data came out Wednesday. “The economy is defying predictions that inflation would not fall absent significant job destruction.”

Yet even as fears of a disastrous recession fade, Biden and his allies are already turning their attention toward a range of smaller obstacles that threaten to dampen the White House’s political narrative. There remains a wariness within the ranks that taking a full victory lap on the economy could invite political troubles down the road — and that the administration lacks the tools to deal with a serious setback should one occur between now and the election in 16 months.

“Good news is good news for the White House at this point,” said Tobin Marcus, a former economic adviser to Biden. “It doesn’t rule out the possibility that things do go rougher than they hope.”

The administration is bracing for the mass resumption of student loan payments this fall, which could send a financial shock through millions of households that have benefited from the three-year reprieve. Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, are already signaling plans to wage a budget battle likely to shut down the government and further shake the nation’s political stability. And then there’s the Federal Reserve, which remains determined to hike interest rates in pursuit of lowering inflation to 2 percent, despite warnings it could end up tipping the U.S. into recession.

“Do we want to sacrifice the economy to the altar of the 2 percent inflation rate?” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, said earlier this week. On Wednesday, he tweeted that the latest inflation report served as more reason to “rethink” the Fed’s strategy.

Biden allies insist those are each manageable elements on their own. But the White House is already struggling to convince Americans that the economy is, in fact, good at a time when all the major indicators are moving in the right direction. And together, those looming hurdles represent a reminder that Biden and his team can only exercise so much control over the economy’s path in the run-up to 2024.

“There’s going to be cooling because economies just cool down — they can’t grow endlessly,” said one economic adviser to the White House, who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “The only thing I worry about is the shock that I can’t predict.”

Biden himself has shown some restraint in how he frames the economic recovery, even amid an extended road tour to claim credit for strengthening conditions across the country. In an otherwise triumphant June speech meant to formally outline his Bidenomics agenda, Biden closed by cautioning, “I’m not here to declare victory.”

He repeated the disclaimer in South Carolina last week, warning that “we have a lot more work to do.”

Inside the administration, aides described their focus more on alleviating voters’ existing misgivings about the state of the economy rather than promising a rosy future. The White House has long harbored deep frustrations with media coverage that officials view as obsessed with the threat of recession, even as the underlying data showed consistent signs of strength — a dynamic they blame in part for the public’s dim view of how Biden has handled the economy.

“We have heard doomsayers saying a recession is around the corner for more than a year,” said one White House official, who was granted anonymity to describe the outlook inside the building. “Obviously, there will always be bumps on the road, but we have dealt with unexpected bumps and our economic recovery has powered through.”

The administration has sought to smooth out some of the impending bumps that it can predict. After the Supreme Court struck down Biden’s bid to cancel billions of dollars in student debt, the White House rolled out a new strategy that will ease repayment penalties for financially vulnerable borrowers over the next year.

The “on ramp” policy won’t avert the anticipated drop in borrowers’ spending that could ripple through the economy and slow its progress. But it could help spread some of the impact over several months, rather than having it hit all at once.

“The hardship for households in some cases is going to be very real,” Marcus said. “Macroeconomically, I don’t see that being the thing that tips us into recession.”

Biden has also begun taking aim at individual Republicans over economic issues. Having navigated a potentially disastrous debt ceiling showdown, he is now moving to insulate himself from the political fallout of a potential government shutdown. In particular, the White House has been highlighting GOP lawmakers who opposed his policies — even as they tout the ways in which their districts have benefited from them.

Biden: I compromised on the budget, not debt ceiling

But beyond that bully pulpit, Biden has few major levers remaining to stabilize the economy if it falters more significantly, especially as much of the pandemic aid that proved a critical financial cushion over the last few years expires.

Though the White House has steered clear of commenting on the Fed, aides and allies have kept close watch on a rate-hiking campaign many privately worry will go too far in its bid to lower inflation.

There’s also some trepidation over how much longer the economy can keep up its pace, and whether even small signs of cooling around this time next year could unravel all the work officials are doing now to sell voters on Biden’s economic record.

But for now, Biden has navigated through two years of pitfalls and emerged with a strengthening economy in hand. Voters may say they don’t yet feel it. Still, it’s a frame the White House is increasingly willing to embrace — for as long as it lasts.

“The story of almost every recession in modern American history is something bad happened, and it was something bad we didn’t see coming,” said Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan. “What could happen between now and 2024? A shit-ton of bad things. You know what else could happen? Good things.”

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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JAS 39 Gripen fighter aircraft of the Swedish Air Force is pictured during Arctic Challenge Exercise 23 live air operations drill in Pirkkala near Tampere, Finland on May 31, 2023 | Kalle Parkinen/AFP/Editing by Germán & Co

Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea is now NATO’s lake

Expanding the alliance creates big problems for Russia.

POLITICO EU BY LAURA KAYALI, JULY 13, 2023 

VILNIUS — A resurgent NATO is set to tighten its grip on the Baltic Sea, complicating a vital transit route for Vladimir Putin’s navy in Russia’s backyard.

This week’s alliance summit in Vilnius was Finland’s first as a NATO member. On the summit’s eve, Turkey agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join — paving the way for a strategic shift in a region Moscow once dominated.

“[Sweden and Finland] make NATO much more geographically coherent. The Baltic Sea becomes a NATO lake, which is generally useful, also because of the Arctic’s increased importance,” said Ulrike Franke, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

NATO has steadily increased its control of the Baltic Sea — a crucial maritime gateway for the Russian fleet which has bases near St. Petersburg and in the heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave. During the Cold War, only Denmark and Germany at the far western edge of the Baltic were in the alliance. Poland joining NATO in 1999 and the three Baltic republics in 2004 put most of the sea’s southern shore under alliance control.

Finland and Sweden in NATO will close the vise on the sea from the north, leaving Russia with limited access. Both countries dropped their long-standing neutrality — in Sweden’s case dating back centuries — and last May applied to join the alliance in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

That means significantly expanding NATO’s border with Russia, strengthening defense in Northern Europe and making the alliance’s deterrence more credible.

“The Baltic states were worried about being a little isolated,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general. “One could imagine that Sweden and Finland would not have let them down, but access to ports and airports was not 100 percent guaranteed.”

Sweden and Finland joining also means expanding the alliance’s presence in the Arctic, a region increasingly strategic to both Russia and China.

Moscow isn’t pleased…

“It’s extremely important to realize under the current conditions that the Russian military infrastructure has never shifted towards Western Europe, it has always moved in the opposite direction,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. “It’s certainly regrettable that the Europeans fail to realize this mistake.”

Sweden’s accession to the alliance would “definitely be negative,” he added.

Hard power 

On Tuesday, NATO allies agreed to implement renewed regional defense plans. Sweden and Finland’s presence as members will be fully reflected in the alliance’s plans, exercises and targets, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference.

The two Nordic countries will help make the “magical promise” of Article 5 more effective, according to Kristine Berzina, managing director for the German Marshall Fund’s Geostrategy North. Under Article 5 — NATO’s cornerstone — an armed attack against one or more members is considered an attack on all.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the start of a meeting with NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners during the NATO summit, in Vilnius on July 12 | Pool photo by Jacques Witt via Getty images

The addition of the well-equipped Swedish and Finnish militaries will make it much more difficult for Russia to stage any attacks in the region.

“You need to have enough in place that, in case of a Crimea or a Ukrainian scenario, there’s actual ability to defend territory,” Berzina said. “With Finland and Sweden in, and [the Swedish Baltic island of] Gotland so close to Kaliningrad, in case of highly unlikely yet possible aggression from Russia, Russia cannot use the sea to its strategic advantage as it could right now.”

On the ground, this means more information sharing, more joint exercises and planning, and more military integration.

For example, a Finnish fighter jet flying near the Russian border can collect data and communicate with the Norwegians, who can then ask for more intel or ask the plane to fly elsewhere, said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Before NATO membership, “you could do it technically but, politically, you couldn’t plan to do that,” he said.

Soldiers, submarines, 5G

While benefitting from NATO’s protection, Stockholm and Helsinki will also bring assets to the table in terms of air defense, land forces and naval capabilities.

“The two countries are already interoperable with NATO, operate NATO-standard weapons systems, and participated in NATO exercise missions, which is one of the reasons why they were able to get in so quickly,” said Grand, adding that Helsinki and Stockholm won’t be “free riders” in the alliance.

Unlike most European countries, Finland didn’t stop spending money on the military after the Cold War ended.

According to Finnish media, Helsinki has one of the largest artillery arsenals and land forces in Europe — ranking ahead of heavyweights such as France, Germany and the U.K. Finland recently renewed its air fleet and is expected to have 64 U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets by 2026.

Sweden reinstated conscription in 2017, which applies to both men and women.

Stockholm did decrease defense spending in the 1990s and 2000s, but started ramping up again in recent years. However, it doesn’t expect to hit NATO’s 2 percent of GDP target until 2026.

Stockholm’s strength is in its navy, which is well-calibrated for the Baltic Sea. The Swedish air force is equipped with locally developed Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters — designed to respond to a Russian attack and seen as a possible weapon that could be donated to Ukraine.

Beyond weaponry, Sweden and Finland can also help NATO with 5G, the fifth-generation of telecoms infrastructure, Grand said.

The two Nordic countries “bring know-how in an important technology and are trusted partners in the deployment of 5G for military needs,” he explained. Finland’s Nokia, Sweden’s Ericsson and China’s Huawei dominate the 5G civil market.

The two nations’ advanced military and technological capabilities come from being outside of NATO, Berzina said.

“They’re good at everything,” she said, “because they were by themselves.” 

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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A view of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea, January 7, 2020. Carina Johansen/NTB Scanpix/via REUTERS/File Photo/Editing by Germán & Co

Oil prices rise on cooling US inflation, China trade data

Reuters By Jeslyn Lerh, July 13, 2023

SINGAPORE, July 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Thursday after U.S. inflation and economic data sparked hopes that the Federal Reserve may have fewer interest rate hikes in store and Chinese trade figures showed monthly oil imports were the second-highest on record in June.

Brent crude futures gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $80.32 per barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $75.88.

U.S. data on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose modestly in June, registering the smallest annual increase in more than two years. Markets expect one more interest rate rise, but oil traders hope that may be it because higher rates can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand.

"The lower-than-expected read in U.S. inflation suggests that the tightening cycle from the Fed so far is having its desired effect in moderating pricing pressures," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, adding this had provided a "risk-on" environment for oil prices.

"Some catch-up gains seem to be at play, with the lacklustre U.S. dollar and some follow-through in China's stimulus hopes lately providing the catalysts for bearish sentiments to unwind," Yeap said.

Meanwhile, China's crude imports in June totalled 52.06 million metric tons, or 12.67 million barrels per day (bpd), jumping 45.3% on the year and hitting its second highest monthly figure on record, customs data released on Thursday showed.

Crude oil imports for January-June were up 11.7% at 282.1 million metric tons, while refined oil products exports for January-June were up 44.7% at 31.31 million metric tons, customs data showed.

However, sluggish global economic growth, slowing world trade and investment and geopolitical risks continue to impact China's trade, Lv Daliang, a General Administration of Customs spokesperson, said on Thursday.

Another factor capping price gains was a U.S. Energy Information Administration report of a much bigger-than-expected U.S. crude stock build of nearly 6 million barrels last week.

Gasoline inventories remained largely unchanged at 219.5 million barrels during the Fourth of July holiday week, a situation that is "almost unheard of," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures group.

Analysts had expected a big drawdown of gasoline stocks as drivers took to the roads for holiday travel.

Reporting by Jeslyn Lerh in Singapore; Additional reporting by Laura Sanicola in Washington; Editing by Jamie Freed and Jacqueline Wong

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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AES executive vice president and chief operating officer Bernerd Da Santos and AES Vietnam president Joseph Uddo discuss the Son My projects with Binh Thuan province's authorities in February 2023. Photo courtesy of the company. /Editing by Germán & Co

AES, PV Gas receive investment policy approval for LNG terminal project in central Vietnam

The venture will be managed by PV Gas and AES Corporation, and is slated to commence operations in 2027, boasting a capacity of 450 TBtu.

theinvestor.vn By Tri Duc, July 13, 2023 

A joint venture between American energy firm AES Corporation and Petrovietnam subsidiary PV Gas was granted investment policy approval for its $1.4 billion Son My LNG Terminal project by authorities in Binh Thuan province on Tuesday.

The terminal, to be built by the Son My LNG Terminal Project Company in the south-central province, will have an installed capacity of 450 TBtu and is expected to begin commercial operations in 2027, AES said in a release.

Plans for the Son My LNG Terminal in Binh Thuan province, south-central Vietnam. Photo courtesy of PV Gas.

“The investment policy approval for Son My LNG Terminal is a significant milestone that enables us to move forward with the development of this critical infrastructure project," said Joseph Uddo, president of AES Vietnam.

"With more than 12 years of operations in Vietnam, AES is committed to accelerating the future of energy through important projects like this. We are pleased to receive approval from the Binh Thuan People’s Committee and excited to partner with PV Gas on this strategic project that will contribute to Vietnam’s energy transition and economic growth,” he added.

U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Marc E. Knapper said:

“The Son My project will bring energy security to Vietnam in the transition to cleaner sources of energy. I am happy to see a world class U.S. company like AES as a partner of choice for PV Gas and the Government of Vietnam.”

The Son My LNG terminal project, together with AES’s 2.2 GW Son My 2 combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), represents a multibillion-dollar investment. Son My 2 CCGT, which received investment policy approval earlier this year, will bring safe and reliable energy to power growth in Vietnam while supporting the transition to cleaner and greener technologies.

The Son My LNG Terminal project has received investment policy approval from authorities in Binh Thuan province. The joint venture between AES Corporation and PV Gas will oversee the $1.4 billion project, which will have an installed capacity of 450 TBtu and begin commercial operations in 2027. AES Vietnam's President, Joseph Uddo, referred to the approval as a "significant milestone" and highlighted that the project will contribute to Vietnam's energy transition and economic growth. The project, along with AES's Son My 2 combined cycle gas turbine, represents a substantial investment aimed at supporting the adoption of cleaner and greener technologies.

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A national-security campaign led by Xi has hit Western management consultants, auditors and other firms GREG BAKER/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/Editing by Germán & Co

Xi Jinping Chokes Off Crucial Engine of China’s Economy

Foreign direct investment in China fell to $20 billion in the first quarter from $100 billion a year earlier, hurting an already struggling economy

WSJ By Lingling Wei, July 13, 2023

Desperate for capital and with their economies struggling, China’s cities are wooing Western businesses with previously unavailable goodies. Beijing has labeled 2023 the “Year of Investing in China” and local officials have embarked on promotional tours overseas to drum up interest from investors.

That effort is running headlong into President Xi Jinping’s national-security agenda, with its focus on fending off perceived foreign threats. That has made any Chinese investment a potential minefield for foreign firms.

A Xi-led campaign this year has hit Western management consultants, auditors and other firms with a wave of raids, investigations and detentions. Meanwhile, an expanded anti-espionage law has added to foreign executives’ worry that conducting routine business activities in China, such as market research, could be construed as spying.

The perception that doing business in China has become much riskier is choking the flow of capital into an economy already struggling with weak private investment and consumption, as well as soaring youth unemployment.

Foreign direct investment in China fell to $20 billion in the first quarter of this year, compared with $100 billion in last year’s first quarter, according to an analysis of government figures by analyst Mark Witzke at research firm Rhodium Group.

Goldman Sachs economists predict outflows from China this year will cancel out investment going into the country, a stunning change for a country that over the past four decades has consistently seen more money coming in than going out.

China’s growth, which in recent decades has been fueled by the country’s opening to the West, depends on foreign investment and expertise to boost innovation and productivity.

For Chinese leaders, keeping pressure on foreign firms while simultaneously trying to get them to invest is becoming an evermore precarious balancing act, which threatens to deprive the country of the capital, technologies, ideas and management skills that have helped power China’s rise.

Distressed cities

The tug of war is leaving financially distressed cities and townships across China in the lurch. Mired in debt and struggling to create jobs after three years of Covid-19 restrictions, many are in dire need of capital.

Local governments spent more last year than the year before, according to official statistics, triggered mainly by an 18% jump in health expenses used to cover Covid testing and related costs. Meanwhile, their income dropped, mainly because of a 23% year-over-year plunge in revenue from land sales to developers, a funding source on which local authorities long relied. Localities have borrowed more than they could afford, with debts owed directly by local governments amounting to 120% of their revenue.

Many officials say their traditional strategies for attracting foreign investment have foundered.

A trade official in Chengdu, the capital of southwestern Sichuan province, recently embarked on an investment-promotion trip to Europe. He returned empty-handed. “In my 20 years of trying to get investments from Europe, this was the first time we didn’t get to sign even one memorandum of understanding,” the official said.

A senior official in a county of southern Guangdong province, which earlier this year set a goal of attracting nearly $300 billion in investment in the next five years, told a visiting American trade group recently that the county would reward any U.S. corporate “decision maker” investing there 10% of the value of the promised deal, according to people briefed on the matter.

The trade group turned down the county official’s offer, which in the U.S. would constitute an illegal bribe, the people said. The Guangdong government didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Business pause

Recent surveys by business groups in China have shown American, German and other European companies pausing expansion or reducing investment in China. Crane, a large U.S. maker of vending machines and other industrial products that has been manufacturing in China since the 1990s, has sharply scaled back its investments in the country partly because of increased policy uncertainty, according to people close to the firm. Crane, based in Stamford, Conn., didn’t respond to questions.

Sean Stein, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai and a former U.S. Consul General in the city, said the recent pressure on U.S. consulting firms risks “cutting off the eyes and ears of foreign businesses.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen objected to China’s treatment of U.S. companies when she met with senior officials in Beijing last week. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is also expected to raise the issue for her coming trip to China.

In the seaport city of Ningbo in Zhejiang province, local officials held a “Investing in Zhejiang” forum, where they touted a checklist of initiatives they could offer foreign investors, from building better roads and pipes to offering tax incentives and subsidies for purchases of high-end equipment.

“The message is that we’re really open for business,” said Cameron Johnson, a partner at TidalWave Solutions, a U.S. consultant and one of the half-dozen Westerners who attended the event in May.

At the same time, uncertainty over policies from Beijing has created paralysis in global corporate boardrooms, he said. “What’s the government’s real focus?” said Johnson, an American who has spent more than two decades in China. “Can there be more clarity or guidance on policy so foreign businesses can develop a road map to comply?”

Mixed messages

Pixelworks, a Portland, Ore., designer and producer of chips used in videos and other electronic display devices, has been welcomed with open arms by local officials in Shanghai, where its China operation is based. They are especially supportive of efforts by Pixelworks’ CEO Todd DeBonis to get the company’s Chinese subsidiary listed on Shanghai’s STAR board, the country’s equivalent to the Nasdaq.

“We’re going all-in in China,” DeBonis said, adding that most of Pixelworks’ research and development talent is based in China, and that is where the firm derives most of its revenue.

Despite the local support, Pixelworks is facing pressure from China’s central government to reconfigure its Chinese subsidiary to make sure it is independent from the company’s American operations. That is the kind of requirement increasingly imposed on foreign companies as part of Beijing’s national-security agenda, business consultants and lawyers advising multinational companies say. 

For Pixelworks, that means the company has had to essentially split itself in two, with its China operation separated from its U.S. parent firm, to get Chinese regulators to approve its initial-public-offering application.

Over the past 2½ years, Pixelworks has undergone a painstaking process aimed at making its Chinese subsidiary independent from the U.S. parent. As part of that effort, Pixelworks has transferred the intellectual property specific to its China operation from the U.S. parent to the China entity—a move intended to ensure the security of those patents and trademarks against any potential U.S. sanctions that could make them off limits to China’s markets.

To comply with Chinese security concerns, Pixelworks recently moved 15 employees who worked on projects for the U.S. parent to a separate floor of its office tower. Those employees, all Chinese nationals, have their own office networks that are completely separate from Pixelworks’ China operations, and confine their work to U.S. projects.

In late June, several officials from China’s Commerce Ministry in Beijing visited Pixelworks’ offices to “better understand” its businesses and the company’s progress in separating its China operation, said DeBonis, who at the time was attending a U.S.-China forum and fly-fishing in Montana and was informed of the visit by his China staffers.

DeBonis said Pixelworks’ China operation aims to submit its IPO application to Chinese regulators later this year. To be approved, it will need to convince Beijing it has bulletproofed its intellectual property against any potential U.S. sanctions.

“They won’t approve your application unless you mitigate the risks to Chinese shareholders,” DeBonis said.

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News round-up, July 12, 2023

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Image credit: illustration 18511393 © Melonstone | Dreamstime.com by Energy Central

Adding Esteemed New Members to the Energy Central 100,000 View Club!

“Hard to believe we're already past the halfway point of 2023, but that's the reality. And with those first 6 months have come some key and compelling utility industry stories-- from clean energy transitions to keeping the grid reliable amid challenging conditions to policy and regulations driving the coming evolution in the sector, the Energy Central Community has been at the forefront of it all. 

And as we all use this community to stay on top of the latest news, we especially want to shout out the dedicated members of the community who continue to share and keep us all informed and discussing, debating, and learning as our top contributors. 

Those top contributors are valuable to us, and we like to take a moment to take stock of them-- and so that means it's time for our regular check-in to see which heavy-hitting contributors have reached the milestone of the Energy Central 100,000 View Club.

We've previously welcomed 38 different Energy Central members to this stratosphere (Induction classes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9), and it's time to welcome 3 more entries into the club:

• Doug Houseman, Utility Industry Innovator with Burns & McDonnell

  • Recommended recent post: Plan to Zero (#27) Balancing the “-ility” issues

• Germán Toro Ghio, CEO of Germán & Co.

  • Recommended recent post: "The Covert Conflict on Lithium: An Examination of the Other Hidden War"

• John Egan, President of Egan Energy Communications

  • Recommended recent post: Utility Community Relations: Say “Hello” to the People (AKA “Customers”) Who Pay Your Salary

These Energy Central regulars join the rest of the 100k club members who have garnered a combined 100,000 views of the content they have submitted to Energy Central. Achieved through an impressive combination of frequency in sharing and high-quality of contributions when they do share (thus allowing their articles to reach even more eyeballs). 

As these devoted members of the Energy Central Community have demonstrated, the power of Energy Central is only as strong as the insights and discussions brought in by our community of experts, professionals, and passionate individuals. Thanks to our community members, whether you have 100,000 views or 100 views, for making that happen!

And are you interested in one day making this esteemed list of elite Energy Central contributors, and thus establishing yourself as a real thought leader in the community? Well, the only way to start is by sharing your thoughts and your work today! So, share a post today, start a valuable conversation, and who knows—maybe it will become viral and you’ll join the vaunted members of this club soon enough!

Can't wait to see you join this list next!

Matt Chester

Community Manager

Most read…

The Energy Transition Is Underway. Fossil Fuel Workers Could Be Left Behind.

The Biden administration is trying to increase renewable energy investments in distressed regions, but some are skeptical those measures would be enough to make up for job losses.

NYT By Madeleine Ngo, reporting from Washington, July 12, 2023

Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us

Investors who think that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed should be troubled by an alternative measure of price increases

WSJ By James Mackintosh, July 12, 2023

OpenAI’s Sam Altman Is Taking a Nuclear-Energy Startup Public

Oklo, which is developing a small modular nuclear reactor, is valued around $850 million

WSJ By Jennifer Hiller and Amrith Ramkumar, July 11, 2023 

Hydrogen boiler trial scrapped in setback for net zero

Scheme abandoned following opposition from residents who preferred gas boilers and heat pumps

The Telegraph By Melissa Lawford, July 11, 2023

Exclusive: Shell, BP pursue arbitration claims against Venture Global LNG

A similar lawsuit was filed by Edison SpA in May, as well as the London Court of International Arbitration. Meanwhile, Repsol SA, one of Venture Global LNG's clients, has requested confidential records from US regulators that could reveal more information about the plant's launch.

REUTERS By Marwa Rashad and Curtis Williams, July 12, 2023

NOW/China lashes back at NATO criticism, warns it will protect its rights

Reuters, July 12, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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The coal-fired power plant in Coshocton County, Ohio, was shut down in 2020.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

The Energy Transition Is Underway. Fossil Fuel Workers Could Be Left Behind.

The Biden administration is trying to increase renewable energy investments in distressed regions, but some are skeptical those measures would be enough to make up for job losses.

NYT By Madeleine Ngo, reporting from Washington, July 12, 2023

Tiffany Berger spent more than a decade working at a coal-fired power plant in Coshocton County, Ohio, eventually becoming a unit operator making about $100,000 annually.

But in 2020, American Electric Power shut down the plant, and Ms. Berger struggled to find a job nearby that offered a comparable salary. She sold her house, moved in with her parents and decided to help run their farm in Newcomerstown, Ohio, about 30 minutes away.

They sell some of the corn, beans and beef they harvest, but it is only enough to keep the farm running. Ms. Berger, 39, started working part time at a local fertilizer and seed company last year, making just a third of what she used to earn. She said she had “never dreamed” the plant would close.

“I thought I was set to retire from there,” Ms. Berger said. “It’s a power plant. I mean, everybody needs power.”

The United States is undergoing a rapid shift away from fossil fuels as new battery factories, wind and solar projects, and other clean energy investments crop up across the country. An expansive climate law that Democrats passed last year could be even more effective than Biden administration officials had estimated at reducing fossil fuel emissions.

While the transition is projected to create hundreds of thousands of clean energy jobs, it could be devastating for many workers and counties that have relied on coal, oil and gas for their economic stability.

Estimates of the potential job losses in the coming years vary, but roughly 900,000 workers were directly employed by fossil fuel industries in 2022, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Politics Across the United States

The Biden administration is trying to mitigate the impact, mostly by providing additional tax advantages for renewable energy projects that are built in areas vulnerable to the energy transition.

But some economists, climate researchers and union leaders said they are skeptical the initiatives will be enough. Beyond construction, wind and solar farms typically require few workers to operate, and new clean energy jobs might not necessarily offer comparable wages or align with the skills of laid-off workers.

Coal plants have already been shutting down for years, and the nation’s coal production has fallen from its peak in the late 2000s. U.S. coal-fired generation capacity is projected to decline sharply to about 50 percent of current levels by 2030, according to the Energy Information Administration. About 41,000 workers remain in the coal mining industry, down from about 177,000 in the mid-1980s.

The industry’s demise is a problem not just for its workers but also for the communities that have long relied on coal to power their tax revenue. The loss of revenue from mines, plants and workers can mean less money for schools, roads and law enforcement. A recent paper from the Aspen Institute found that from 1980 to 2019, regions exposed to the decline of coal saw long-run reductions in earnings and employment rates, greater uptake of Medicare and Medicaid benefits and substantial decreases in population, particularly among younger workers. That “leaves behind a population that is disproportionately old, sick and poor,” according to the paper.

The Biden administration has promised to help those communities weather the impact, for both economic and political reasons. Failure to adequately help displaced workers could translate into the kind of populist backlash that hurt Democrats in the wake of globalization as companies shifted factories to China. Promises to restore coal jobs also helped Donald J. Trump clinch the 2016 election, securing him crucial votes in states like Pennsylvania.

Federal officials have vowed to create jobs in hard-hit communities and ensure that displaced workers “benefit from the new clean energy economy” by offering developers billions in bonus tax credits to put renewable energy projects in regions dependent on fossil fuels.

Tiffany Berger, who was laid off when the plant in Coshocton County was shut down, struggled to find work that offered a comparable salary. She moved in with her parents and decided to help run her family’s farm.Credit...Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times

If new investments like solar farms or battery storage facilities are built in those regions, called “energy communities,” developers could get as much as 40 percent of a project’s cost covered. Businesses receiving credits for producing electricity from renewable sources could earn a 10 percent boost.

The Inflation Reduction Act also set aside at least $4 billion in tax credits that could be used to build clean energy manufacturing facilities, among other projects, in regions with closed coal mines or plants, and it created a program that could guarantee up to $250 billion in loans to repurpose facilities like a shuttered power plant for clean energy uses.

Brian Anderson, the executive director of the Biden administration’s interagency working group on energy communities, pointed to other federal initiatives, including increased funding for projects to reclaim abandoned mine lands and relief funds to revitalize coal communities.

Still, he said that the efforts would not be enough, and that officials had limited funding to directly assist more communities.

“We’re standing right at the cusp of potentially still leaving them behind again,” Mr. Anderson said.

Phil Smith, the chief of staff at the United Mine Workers of America, said that the tax credits for manufacturers could help create more jobs but that $4 billion likely would not be enough to attract facilities to every region. He said he also hoped for more direct assistance for laid-off workers, but Congress did not fund those initiatives.

“We think that’s still something that needs to be done,” Mr. Smith said.

Gordon Hanson, the author of the Aspen Institute paper and a professor of urban policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, said he worried the federal government was relying too heavily on the tax credits, in part because companies would likely be more inclined to invest in growing areas. He urged federal officials to increase unemployment benefits to distressed regions and funding for work force development programs.

Even with the bonus credit, clean energy investments might not reach the hardest-hit areas because a broad swath of regions meets the federal definition of an energy community, said Daniel Raimi, a fellow at Resources for the Future.

“If the intention of that provision was to specifically provide an advantage to the hardest-hit fossil fuel communities, I don’t think it’s done that,” Mr. Raimi said.

Local officials have had mixed reactions to the federal efforts. Steve Henry, the judge-executive of Webster County, Ky., said he believed they could bring renewable energy investments and help attract other industries to the region. The county experienced a significant drop in tax revenue after its last mine shut down in 2019, and it now employs fewer 911 dispatchers and deputy sheriffs because officials cannot offer more competitive wages.

“I think we can recover,” he said. “But it’s going to be a long recovery.”

Adam O’Nan, the judge-executive of Union County, Ky., which has one coal mine left, said he thought renewable energy would bring few jobs to the area, and he doubted that a manufacturing plant would be built because of the county’s inadequate infrastructure.

“It’s kind of difficult to see how it reaches down into Union County at this point,” Mr. O’Nan said. “We’re best suited for coal at the moment.”

Federal and state efforts so far have done little to help workers like James Ault, 42, who was employed at an oil refinery in Contra Costa County, Calif., for 14 years before he was laid off in 2020. To keep his family afloat, he depleted his pension and withdrew most of the money from his 401(k) early.

In early 2022, he moved to Roseville, Calif., to work at a power plant, but he was laid off again after four months. He worked briefly as a meal delivery driver before landing a job in February at a nearby chemical manufacturer.

He now makes $17 an hour less than he did at the refinery and is barely able to cover his mortgage. Still, he said he would not return to the oil industry.

“With our push away from gasoline, I feel that I would be going into an industry that is kind of dying,” Mr. Ault said.

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…”I had the privilege of attending the AmChamChile meeting with former President Lagos and gaining valuable insights into his experience in the negotiations of the Chile-US Trade and Development Agreement. It is truly remarkable to think that two decades have already passed since those negotiations concluded. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to AmChamChile for generously sharing their invaluable insights and knowledge with us. Thank once again.

Javier Dib

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AES Andes

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The Fed is striving to tame inflation, which is at different levels depending on how it is measured. PHOTO: ERIN SCOTT/BLOOMBERG NEWS/Editing by Germán & Co

Measure It Differently, and Inflation Is Behind Us

Investors who think that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed should be troubled by an alternative measure of price increases

WSJ By James Mackintosh, July 12, 2023

If core inflation came in just below 3%, the Federal Reserve would breathe a huge sigh of relief, stocks would head to the races and consumers could relax about the rising cost of living. 

It isn’t merely a dream: Measure U.S. price changes the way Europe does, and inflation was already there in May. Measure them as the U.S. does, and on Wednesday new figures are predicted by economists to show core inflation far higher, at 5% for June.

The U.S. and Europe use different methods to calculate inflation data, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates American price rises the European way too, although the statistic remains obscure.

Right now, measuring U.S. inflation using the two methods shows radically different results. Investors who think they have a handle on the current consensus—that underlying inflation is falling but not fast enough for the Fed—should be troubled by the alternative message coming from the much lower European version of the figures.

As inflation climbs in the U.S., rising food and energy costs have pushed the nation’s most popular price index to its highest level in four decades. WSJ’s Gwynn Guilford explains how the consumer-price index works and what it can tell you about inflation. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds

U.S. core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy—measured using the standard consumer-price index was 2.3 percentage points higher than the European-style inflation, known as the harmonized index of consumer prices. It is the biggest gap there has ever been. 

The main reason is that Europe’s measure, known as HICP, doesn’t include the imaginary cost of what a homeowner would pay to rent their house, which makes up about a third of the U.S. core CPI. Known as “owners’ equivalent rent” or imputed rent, the measure has long had its critics.

Exclude something that no one actually pays, and which is calculated from guesses by homeowners of the rental value of their house, and core inflation’s looking basically fine, at a fraction under 3%. I’ve concentrated on core inflation, because food and oil prices swing so much that they make it hard to tell if the economy is generating inflation pressures the central bank needs to tackle.

So why is everyone still so concerned about inflation?

The answer is partly about biases and partly about change, but it is mostly about worries that the economy is running too hot to be confident that inflation will come down to the 2% target.

The bias is that CPI is long established and widely used in the U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces its own HICP inflation data as an experimental measure; many economists and investors don’t even realize it is available. 

Housing Makes the Difference

The HICP inflation gauge excludes imputed rent for homeowners, so is much lower.

Gap between inflation measures

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (HICP), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (CPI, PCE)

To make matters even more confusing, CPI gets almost all the focus, even though the Fed sets its inflation target based on the personal-consumption expenditures price index, PCE, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE comes in lower than CPI, but still puts large weight on imputed rent that isn’t actually paid.

Even if the Fed thought HICP was better—and there is no sign it does—there is no way it could change the measure without drawing political heat. Inflation figures are already subject to deep skepticism from some economists, who point out that improvements to the indexes usually make inflation come in lower than on older methods.

The most important question that the gauges seek to answer is whether the underlying pressures are so strong that the economy needs to be restrained further. Will a strong jobs market mean workers flush with pay increases can consume more, keeping demand up and so allowing companies to raise prices? 

If so, the Fed will have to keep raising rates. The lower core HICP inflation suggests the problem of a strong jobs market is less worrisome than on the CPI measure. But hawks are concerned that continued above-inflation pay increases will push inflation up, as companies pass on higher costs. Persistent inflation above 2% might push up expectations of inflation, in turn leading to more pay demands.

Alternatively, will companies facing more expensive borrowing trim spending, hire fewer people and resist pay demands? If so, wages will moderate, demand fall and the Fed relax—at least so long as slowdown doesn’t turn into recession. Doves point to tentative signs that jobs are less plentiful, with initial unemployment claims up and wage increases decelerating for the hourly, less-skilled and lower-paid workers who were most in demand. Doves are also reassured by inflation expectations from consumers and investors not far from the 2% target.

Indicators that have a history of moving in tandem often converge again after a period of moving apart. CPI and PCE might well come down toward HICP, because rent increases have slowed. Unfortunately, even if core inflation does drop more, it will still be too high for comfort on the CPI and PCE gauges that investors and the Fed focus on.

Inflation isn’t the only place where the economic signals are haywire. Lots of the usual indicators of what the economy is doing and where it is going are telling different stories, something I’ll come back to in the next Streetwise. Meanwhile, all of this leaves me concerned—and confused, never a good place to be when trying to figure out what the market will do next.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the nuclear-energy industry can make electricity that is ‘a way better deal than anything else out there.’ PHOTO: CLARA MOKRI FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

OpenAI’s Sam Altman Is Taking a Nuclear-Energy Startup Public

Oklo, which is developing a small modular nuclear reactor, is valued around $850 million

WSJ By Jennifer Hiller and Amrith Ramkumar, July 11, 2023 

Oklo, a nuclear-fission startup backed by Sam Altman, plans to go public through a merger with his special-purpose acquisition company, company officials said Tuesday.

The deal would add to recent SPAC mergers involving nuclear companies and test investor appetite for clean-energy startups, which surged in 2020 and early 2021 before falling out of favor. Companies such as Oklo trying to build a new generation of smaller nuclear power projects must prove they can deliver on time and on budget, unlike the fleet of large nuclear plants that preceded them. 

California-based Oklo is developing a small modular nuclear reactor design and plans to sell electricity into the competitive power market, including through the kind of agreements that wind and solar developers often cut with corporate and industrial firms that want to buy carbon-free power.

Altman, the chief executive of OpenAI—the artificial-intelligence startup behind the viral chatbot ChatGPT—said the nuclear-energy industry can make electricity that is “a way better deal than anything else out there.” 

At their peak, SPACs accounted for 70% of all IPOs, with $95 billion raised. But now, the market has dried up and shares of companies that did SPAC deals have crashed. WSJ explains the decline of the IPO vehicle. Illustration: Ali Larkin

Nuclear fission can generate energy without greenhouse-gas emissions, and, unlike other technologies such as solar, it can do so 24 hours a day. The process of splitting atoms in nuclear-fission power plants provides nearly 20% of U.S. electricity.

Oklo is valued in the transaction at roughly $850 million. Somewhat unusually, it would go public by combining with AltC Acquisition ALCC -1.42%decrease; red down pointing triangle, a SPAC co-founded by Altman and Michael Klein, a former Citigroup banker and serial blank-check company creator. 

Also known as a blank-check company, a SPAC is a shell company that raises money, then lists publicly with the sole intent of combining with a private company to take it public. After regulators approve the transaction, the company going public replaces the SPAC in the stock market.

Such deals are notorious for enriching company insiders at the expense of other investors. At least a dozen startups that went public during the SPAC boom have filed for bankruptcy, and many others are burning through their cash.

Even in the risky world of SPACs, it is uncommon for an investor to take one of their companies public through one of their own blank-check companies, though not unprecedented. Having the same investor on both sides of a deal can raise concerns for other shareholders about whether they are getting the best outcome. 

The AltC SPAC is also running up against its deadline to do a deal before it has to return cash to its investors, raising questions about the merger’s timing.

AltC and Oklo said they have been working on the transaction for nine months and that AltC had entered into a letter of intent that extended the deadline for three months. Altman recused himself from the transaction review and approval processes on both sides. Altman, Oklo’s founders and Klein have agreed not to sell shares until well after the deal closes, the companies said.

AltC holds $500 million in cash that Oklo could use to expand the business, though that figure will likely drop. SPAC investors can pull their money out of such deals before they close and have been withdrawing in droves during market turbulence over the past two years, making it harder for companies to raise substantial amounts of cash from the transactions. Mergers that lack simultaneous private investments such as the proposed Oklo transaction have been among the worst performers.

Small modular reactor startup X-energy is attempting to go public through a SPAC backed by private-equity firm Ares Management in a $1.8 billion deal. The two sides lowered the valuation by $300 million last month. Competitor NuScale Power went through a blank-check merger last year. Its stock is down about 25%, less than the average decline for companies that went public this way. 

“It has been a difficult year in the SPAC world but I always try not to pay too much attention to trends and look at each opportunity,” Altman said.

Altman is also a backer of nuclear-fusion startup Helion Energy, which signed a deal with Microsoft, believed to be the first commercial agreement for fusion power. Nuclear-fusion systems such as Helion’s would theoretically generate electricity from the energy released when hydrogen and helium are combined, the process that powers the stars. Microsoft has agreed to purchase electricity from Helion within about five years. 

Both Oklo and Helion will try to directly compete with other forms of power generation, as opposed to asking utility companies and their ratepayers to commit to funding projects for which the first-of-a-kind design costs could be uncertain.

Oklo plans to deliver its first reactors in Idaho and Ohio and must navigate a rigorous licensing process with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It is also developing nuclear fuel-recycling technologies with the U.S. Energy Department and U.S. national laboratories, which would provide fuel for its reactors and others.

Altman has a long history with Oklo. He met the founders in 2013 around the time they started the firm, recruited them to startup accelerator Y Combinator in 2014 and invested in the company and became board chair in 2015, a position he still holds.

Altman said the goals of making artificial intelligence and energy cheap and abundant are tied together.

“The AI systems of the future will need tremendous amounts of energy and this fission and fusion can help deliver them,” Altman said, adding that he thinks that as AI advances it will contribute to nuclear-system designs.

Dozens of developers globally are testing small modular reactor designs, though there are no SMRs making electricity in the U.S., and none under construction. Supporters say the smaller-scale reactors could prove cheaper and faster to build than their massive predecessors; skeptics say the effort is a gamble on a technology with unproven economics. At the earliest, such reactors could be available later this decade. 

Jacob DeWitte, co-founder and chief executive of Oklo, said the company is trying to avoid the mistakes of the past, in which utility customers paid rising costs for building a reactor. “That traditional business model is just very difficult to deliver and to execute on,” DeWitte said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Source: IEA

Hydrogen boiler trial scrapped in setback for net zero

Scheme abandoned following opposition from residents who preferred gas boilers and heat pumps

The Telegraph By Melissa Lawford, July 11, 2023

A net zero trial of hydrogen heating systems in a town near Liverpool has been scrapped after locals pushed back in favour of gas boilers and heat pumps.

In a blow to the Government’s race to go green, the energy minister Lord Callanan announced on Twitter on Monday that plans to make Whitby, Ellesmere Port, into the UK’s first hydrogen-powered village would be scrapped because of a lack of support from residents.

Cadent and British Gas had proposed to install and trial hydrogen heating systems in 2,000 homes in the town for a period of two years.

Lord Callanan said: “After listening to the views of residents, it’s clear that there is no strong local support, therefore Whitby will no longer be considered as the location for the UK’s first hydrogen village trial.”

Residents complained over a 10-month consultation process that they wanted to keep their gas boilers and wanted to use heat pumps instead, Cadent said.

The pushback highlights the challenge faced by the ministers as they scramble to decarbonise Britain’s homes.

In 2021, the Government announced plans for a trial village as part of a plan to become a “world-leading hydrogen economy” in its bid to hit net zero by 2050. 

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UK HYDROGEN DEMAND FORECAST

Source: BEIS

Unlike natural gas, hydrogen does not release carbon when it is burnt.

Many families were apparently still opposed to the plans despite terms laid out by Cadent and British Gas when they submitted their bid at the end of March, which included making the trial optional and letting residents continue to power their homes using gas if they preferred.

Those who opted to participate were promised new hydrogen appliances, installed and maintained for free; price-matching to natural gas for the programme’s duration; and £2,500 in home energy efficiency improvements.

The decision to scrap the trial followed heavy criticism in a report by the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which last month blamed the Government’s “lack of a strategic direction” on electrification and hydrogen policy for “creating systemic uncertainty”, which the CCC said is holding back progress on hydrogen infrastructure.

Lord Callanan said that the Government was in ongoing discussions with the Northern Gas Networks (NGN) about plans for a separate hydrogen trial in Redcar, a town on the Yorkshire coast, and will “announce next steps shortly.” 

NGN has proposed 2,000 homes in parts of Redcar use hydrogen instead of natural gas for a minimum of two years from 2025.

A spokesman for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “We have always said we wouldn’t force these trials on communities without their support, and we have listened to the people of Whitby after they raised their concerns.”

A Cadent spokesman said: “We believe strongly in the role that hydrogen can play alongside other technologies and energy sources in reaching net zero. 

“While Whitby won’t to be the location for the trial, the information we have gained over the last 12 months will still play an invaluable role in shaping how the UK heats its homes and businesses in the future.”

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Source: Reuters

Exclusive: Shell, BP pursue arbitration claims against Venture Global LNG

A similar lawsuit was filed by Edison SpA in May, as well as the London Court of International Arbitration. Meanwhile, Repsol SA, one of Venture Global LNG's clients, has requested confidential records from US regulators that could reveal more information about the plant's launch.

REUTERS By Marwa Rashad and Curtis Williams, July 12, 2023

[1/2]The Bermuda-flagged LNG tanker Methane Lydon Volney, is seen offshore of the islet of Revithoussa, Greece, September 21, 2022. REUTERS/Costas Baltas/File Photo

LONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - Top LNG traders Shell (SHEL.L) and BP (BP.L) have separately filed for arbitration against U.S. exporter Venture Global LNG for failing to supply contracted cargoes, even as it sold to non-contract customers as prices soared, four people familiar with the matter said.

A Venture Global LNG spokesperson did not comment on the Shell and BP claims. Last month, the company said it was in full compliance with terms of its long-term contracts and cited a need for extensive commissioning of its modular facility.

Shell and BP missed out on billions of dollars in sales that went to Venture Global LNG because they were unable to get their contracted fuel, one of the people familiar with the arbitration filings said. Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) soared last year on Russia's gas-supply cuts to Europe.

The companies filed their cases at the London Court of International Arbitration. A similar case was brought by Italian utility Edison SpA (EDNn.MI) in May. Another Venture Global LNG contract customer, Spanish energy firm Repsol SA (REP.MC), has asked U.S. regulators to release confidential records that would shed light on the plant's startup.

Founded by a former energy lawyer and investment banker, Venture Global LNG has emerged as a market force with its ability to obtain financing and rapidly build export plants. It has pledged to produce 70 million tons of LNG per year once the projects are completed.

The contracts were tied to Calcasieu Pass LNG, the first of Venture Global LNG's three planned facilities. It stitched together 18 liquefaction units to produce up to 12 million tons per year of the supercooled gas.

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Image by Germán & Co

NOW/China lashes back at NATO criticism, warns it will protect its rights

Reuters, July 12, 2023

BEIJING, July 12 (Reuters) - Beijing lashed back at NATO's accusation that China challenges the bloc's interests and security, and opposed any attempt by the military alliance to expand its footprint into the Asia-Pacific region.

In a strongly worded communique issued midway into a two-day summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on Tuesday, NATO said the People's Republic of China (PRC) challenged its interests, security and values with its "ambitions and coercive policies".

"The PRC employs a broad range of political, economic, and military tools to increase its global footprint and project power, while remaining opaque about its strategy, intentions and military build-up," NATO heads of state said in their communique.

"The PRC's malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation target Allies and harm Alliance security."

The Chinese mission to the European said in a statement on Tuesday the China-related content of the communique disregarded basic facts, distorted China's position and policies, and deliberately discredited China.

"We firmly oppose and reject this," it said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters at the summit that while China was not a NATO "adversary", it was increasingly challenging the rules-based international order with its "coercive behaviour."

"China is increasingly challenging the rules-based international order, refusing to condemn Russia's war against Ukraine, threatening Taiwan, and carrying out a substantial military build-up," he said.

However, NATO made no mention of Taiwan in its communique.

Taiwan's foreign ministry said it was "very meaningful" for Stoltenberg to once again clearly express his concern for security in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan is a responsible, democratic member of the Indo-Pacific region, and is willing to work with like-minded partners such as Europe and the United States to jointly combat coercion by and challenges from authoritarian regimes, it added.

'SPREADING ITS TENTACLES'

Attendance at the two-day summit also includes some Asia-Pacific leaders.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, joining for a second time, aimed to remind the military alliance to pay heed to East Asia risks, while South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol sought deeper international security cooperation amid rising North Korean threats and tension over China.

In May, Kishida said Japan had no plans to become a NATO member, even though NATO was planning a Tokyo office, its first in Asia, to facilitate consultations in the region.

The Chinese mission said China resolutely opposed NATO's "eastward movement into the Asia-Pacific region" and warned any action threatening Beijing's rights would be met with a resolute response.

"Any act that jeopardises China's legitimate rights and interests will be met with a resolute response," it said.

In the communique, NATO said China sought to control key technological and industrial sectors, critical infrastructure, and strategic materials and supply chains, and that Beijing also used its economic leverage to create strategic dependencies and enhance its influence.

China's state-run Xinhua news agency hit back, saying in a report that the wars and conflicts involving NATO states suggest the bloc is a "grave challenge" to global peace and stability.

"Despite all the chaos and conflict already inflicted, NATO is spreading its tentacles to the Asia-Pacific region with an express aim of containing China."

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News round-up, July 11, 2023

Thoughts for a day on Tuesday 11 July

"Cluster munitions are the only viable, unfortunately —solution— to put end Ukraine's warfare… 

According to the International Red Cross, cluster munitions have been a significant issue for many years. These weapons have a broad range and often fail to detonate as intended, causing numerous civilian casualties. Even though only a few countries have used cluster munitions, many possess them in their stockpiles. The consequences could be worse if even a small amount of these stockpiled cluster munitions were used or transferred to other countries or non-State armed groups. Numerous countries are signing up for the Convention on Cluster Munitions to tackle the humanitarian problems linked to these weapons. 

There are approximately 90 countries that have stockpiles of cluster munitions, with around 30 of them producing these weapons. The use of cluster munitions has been documented in over 20 countries, causing harm to both military personnel and civilians. Most victims of cluster munitions are civilians, including children, who often mistake these submunitions for toys or other harmless objects. Using these weapons also has long-term effects on the environment, as unexploded submunitions can remain active for years after deployment, making areas unsafe for habitation or farming. 

Efforts to enhance the technology of cluster munitions, including the creation of self-destruct systems or submunitions with lower explosive force, have yet to prove to be entirely feasible or effective in solving the underlying issue. The Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits these weapons' use, production, and stockpiling, has been signed by 119 countries, showing the international community's dedication to addressing the humanitarian concerns associated with cluster munitions.

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Most read…

IEA says critical minerals supply could pull close to demand by 2030

While the supply picture in the energy sector is indeed improving, we must not overlook the warning from the Paris-based energy watchdog regarding the potential risks posed by delays and cost overruns for projects.

Reuters By Eric Onstad, July 11, 2023, editing by Germán & Co

In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs Nato

Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild

The Guardian by Timothy Garton Ash, July 11, 2023

Biden’s hydrogen bombshell leaves Europe in the dust

The EU is investing billions into becoming a green energy superpower. But Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act means it’s the U.S. reaping the rewards.

POLITICO.COM By GABRIEL GAVIN and BEN LEFEBVRE, July 7, 2023 

New power lines take a decade to build because of red tape, complains National Grid

Energy company blasts Britain’s planning rules amid ongoing row over delays

The Telegraph By Gareth Corfield,  July 11, 2023 

The Flawed Moral Logic of Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine

The New York Times By *The Editorial Board, July 10, 2023

*The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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IEA says critical minerals supply could pull close to demand by 2030

While the supply picture in the energy sector is indeed improving, we must not overlook the warning from the Paris-based energy watchdog regarding the potential risks posed by delays and cost overruns for projects.

Reuters By Eric Onstad, July 11, 2023, editing by Germán & Co

LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) - Supply of minerals critical to the energy transition could move close to levels needed to support climate pledges by 2030 after a surge in investment, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday - provided all projects go as planned.

Consultants and analysts have warned of looming shortages due to surging demand for key minerals like lithium and cobalt used in electric vehicles, wind turbines and other clean energy technologies.

But after investment in critical minerals production jumped 30% last year to $41 billion, having gained 20% in 2021, that picture is looking brighter, the IEA said.

In key battery mineral lithium, the IEA forecasts supply by 2030 will reach 420,000 metric tons - only a touch short of demand estimated at 443,000 to meet government pledges, though well below the 702,000 required for net zero.

"We are happy that for a change we can give some good news," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told Reuters in an interview.

"This is testimony that the markets are buying in to the fact that the clean energy transition is moving very fast."

While the supply picture is improving, the Paris-based energy watchdog warned that delays and cost overruns for projects posed a risk to the upbeat scenario.

More work is also needed to diversify from key nations that have tight control on output of many minerals, such as China, Indonesia and Congo, the IEA added in a report.

The newly financed projects will help meet rising demand for critical minerals that the IEA has calculated will be needed to meet climate pledges made by governments, which would likely result in a global temperature rise of 1.7 C by 2100.

The agency made separate estimates of what would be necessary to meet a net zero-emission scenario by 2050.

Mining companies needed to make more progress in curbing greenhouse gas emissions and water use, the IEA said.

Twenty top miners emitted 0.18 kg of CO2 per kg of minerals in 2021, the same as in 2020, while water use climbed to 7.9 cubic metres per metric ton of mined output in 2021 from 5.4 cubic metres in 2019, the IEA said.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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President Joe Biden with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, in May. Photograph: Susan Walsh/AP/Editing by Germán & Co

In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs Nato

Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild

The Guardian by Timothy Garton Ash, July 11, 2023

Unless the US gives bolder leadership on long-term security for Ukraine at Nato’s Vilnius summit this week, historians may one day ask, “Who lost Ukraine?” And their shocking answer might be: President Joe Biden.

I say this after talking to a wide range of people in Kyiv last week, before departing Ukraine on Saturday, the 500th day of the largest war in Europe since 1945. There’s still the extraordinary fighting spirit that I found on my last visit, in February. But in five months, some people seem to have aged five years. They are exhausted. The casualties, military and civilian, continue to mount.

With other members of our European Council on Foreign Relations fact-finding mission, I witnessed prayers being chanted in St Michael’s monastery over the coffin of the Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina. As she was visiting Kramatorsk to document Russian war crimes, she herself became the victim of a Russian war crime. While the Biden administration worries at every single step about escalation, Vladimir Putin has continued to escalate – notably with the blowing-up of the Kakhovka dam, which has ruined vast tracts of Ukrainian land. Ecocide complements genocide.

In a recent poll, 78% of Ukrainians said close family members or friends had been wounded or killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year. The pain is partly masked by the adrenaline of resistance, but after the war, the country will face widespread trauma. A priest told us about a soldier who returned after some months at the front, but could not sleep. Back home, it was just too quiet.

Senior defence officials frankly acknowledged how slowly this summer’s counteroffensive was progressing, especially against Russia’s minefields and multiple lines of anti-tank defences in the south. The big combined arms push by western-trained and equipped brigades is yet to come, but in this kind of warfare the advantage lies with entrenched defence. Crucially, Russia is stronger in the skies. Hence the constant Ukrainian insistence on the need for more air defence systems – and F-16 fighter jets.

In a survey this May, 87% of Ukrainians said they were optimistic about their country’s future, but there’s an increasingly sober mood in private. We were told that as many as one in every five Ukrainian children is now outside the country. Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of Kyiv School of Economics, shared with us its projection that on current trends the workforce would be reduced by as much as a third over the next few years. It’s a daunting challenge to produce the jobs, housing and schools without which millions of Ukrainians will not return from abroad.

So when I say, “Who lost Ukraine?”, I don’t mean losing the war. I mean losing the peace: a country exhausted, ravaged, traumatised, still robbed of some of its territory, a land in limbo. For this is now Putin’s brutal, vengeful objective: if he can’t force Ukraine back into the Russian empire, he will try to ruin it.

Here’s where the buck comes back to the US. Its military support is essential for Ukraine to win the war. Long-term security is essential for Ukraine to win the peace. Without security, there will be little investment, fewer returnees, no successful reconstruction. And that ultimately means Nato membership for Ukraine is critical.

While US military and economic assistance to Ukraine has been massive and indispensable, Europe is now ahead of the US in its strategic stance towards the embattled country. The EU has done what Nato has not: unambiguously committed to Ukrainian membership. As elsewhere in central and eastern Europe since 1989, this is already having a transformative impact on the country’s politics and policies. For everyone in Ukraine now has this big shared goal of “joining Europe”. Non-governmental experts and activists told us they actually wanted tougher EU conditionality, to fight corruption, strengthen the rule of law and improve governance. The EU’s four-year, €50bn support package is framing a domestic agenda of reconstruction and reform.

Europeans are also ahead when it comes to calling for a strong statement from the Vilnius summit on Ukraine’s future Nato membership. And that’s not just the central and eastern Europeans. In what one Kyiv thinktanker called a “magic transformation” of the French position, President Emmanuel Macron has come out strongly in favour. Germany is more hesitant, but Kyiv’s biggest problem is now in Washington.

Ukrainians are realistic. They know they can’t join Nato while there’s a war on. They want what they call a “political invitation”, which would be implemented only when conditions are right. As a bridge to that moment, they seek security commitments from leading Nato powers such as the US, Britain, France and Germany. These are sometimes called “security guarantees”, but as one expert explained, a more accurate description would be “security assistance guarantees”. Those powers would undertake to go on supplying the military means necessary for Ukraine to fight off the aggressor. This would be something like what the US does for Israel, but from multiple partners and with a clear path to eventual Nato membership.

At the time of writing, Biden is still not there. On Sunday, he told the CNN journalist Fareed Zakaria that Ukraine was not ready for Nato membership and that Israel-style security arrangements should be available “if there is a ceasefire, if there is a peace agreement”. He emphasised the word “if”. Cross-checking this with public and private statements by senior US officials, one detects a rather hard-nosed stance. Nato membership is to be deployed as a future reward for Ukraine negotiating the best peace it can get, probably accepting some significant loss of territory.

If this were to be the outcome of the Vilnius summit, there would be massive disappointment in Ukraine. (The morally dubious gift of American cluster bombs is no substitute for long-term security commitments, and only confuses the debate.) We already heard indications in Kyiv of growing anger against the west. Left to fight on alone for another 500 days, without a firm promise of future security, even the bravest of the brave would find it difficult to rebuild their battered, exhausted, traumatised country.

But if the west gives Ukraine the military means to win this war, adding a firm promise of future Nato membership when it’s over, then the US will end up with a Europe much more capable of defending itself against a weakened Russia. The US will then be able to devote more of its own resources to the geostrategic threat from China.

The final decision will only be taken this week, over the leaders’ table in Vilnius. Come on, Mr President, do the right, the bold, the truly strategic thing. History is watching you.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Nel is one of Europe’s largest manufacturers of electrolyzers for hydrogen production, and its Michigan gigafactory will be one of the largest in the world. | Trond R. Teigen/AP Photo

Biden’s hydrogen bombshell leaves Europe in the dust

The EU is investing billions into becoming a green energy superpower. But Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act means it’s the U.S. reaping the rewards.

POLITICO.COM By GABRIEL GAVIN and BEN LEFEBVRE, July 7, 2023 

European leaders have devoted tens of billions of dollars toward encouraging production of hydrogen, a clean-burning fuel that advocates say will create jobs and help fight climate change.

But now, many of those jobs will be going to the United States instead.

The clean energy subsidies that undergird President Joe Biden’s climate agenda have just prompted one Norwegian manufacturer to choose Michigan, not Europe, as the site of a nearly $500 million factory that will produce the equipment needed to extract hydrogen from water. And other European-based companies are being tempted to follow suit, people involved in the continent’s hydrogen efforts say — making the universe’s most abundant substance the latest focus of the transatlantic trade battle on green energy.

The Norwegian firm, Nel, announced its decision in May, nine months after Congress approved Biden’s flagship climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. The move takes 500 new jobs to the other side of the Atlantic, despite the European Union’s efforts to position itself as the obvious place for clean tech investment.

Gas grab riles Europeans

“There’s not one single driver behind the decision to put it in the U.S.,” Nel CEO Håkon Volldal told POLITICO, pointing to the benefit of being close to customers and partners like General Motors, as well as the financial benefits of the IRA, the Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act that provides funding for technology development, and Michigan’s own grants for green tech.

“If you take the IRA and the CHIPS Act together, we’re talking about more than $400 billion,” Volldal said. “On top of that, you have subsidies for renewable power and so on. Europe is dwarfed by the numbers we see in the U.S.”

The global hydrogen industry was valued at more than $155 billion last year, and the EU plans to produce and import a total of 20 million tons of renewable hydrogen a year by 2030. Supporters say this will help replace natural gas, powering vehicles and generating electricity.

Now, though, the U.S. has its sights set on overtaking Europe when it comes to both hydrogen and the electrolyzers that extract it. The IRA introduced a $3-per-kilogram subsidy for green hydrogen and tens of billions of dollars in loans and other incentives for international investors to put money into the industry.

“A year ago, the EU clearly had the yellow jersey,” Volldal said, referring to the garment that the fastest cyclist wears in the Tour de France. “Now the U.S. has it.”

Jorgo Chatzimarkakis agrees. As the CEO of Hydrogen Europe, he’s one of the continent’s most influential lobbyists, having helped secure industry handouts worth billions of dollars. “We have a very robust framework in the EU, but we fail to attract our own companies because it’s all too complex,” he said. “We have ambitious targets, but we don’t have simple and efficient instruments to incentivize businesses.

“In their typical bureaucratic way, the Europeans will kill this business,” Chatzimarkakis said.

That leaves those who’ve helped launch the industry at risk of losing out, Chatzimarkakis added.

“Dung beetles spend hours rolling up balls of dung to attract females,” he said. “But there are some very smart dung beetles that just sit by the side and watch while others do hard work. Then they shoot in, take the dung ball, take the girl and run away with everything. That’s Joe Biden.”

Revving up subsidies in Michigan

Michigan wants to cement its growing reputation as a home for the hydrogen industry, hoping that the U.S. Department of Energy will designate it as one of four hydrogen development hubs in the country. That would make it eligible for even more money in the form of federal grants.

Luring Nel is a major early coup. The company is one of Europe’s largest manufacturers of electrolyzers for hydrogen production, and its Michigan gigafactory will be one of the largest in the world.

“Hydrogen is one of the fuels for the future,” Rep. Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat who has worked with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to bring in green investment, said in an interview. “We want to locate all kinds of different alternative technologies here.”

The White House has spent months responding to European criticism that its landmark energy policy is unfairly stealing business from U.S. allies on the continent. The administration counters that flooding the market with U.S. government funding is increasing the odds of success for companies on both sides of the Atlantic.

The IRA “benefits both the United States and our partners and allies, contributing to the advancement of the clean energy sector globally and presenting significant opportunities for our partners,” a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said in a statement. “We continue to listen to our partners’ perspectives ... and are turning the IRA into a source of economic growth and partnership.”

The spokesperson was granted anonymity to comment candidly on diplomatic relations.

The scale of the competition is now becoming clear. A senior European Commission official who has worked closely on the bloc’s hydrogen industry incentives policy, granted anonymity to speak openly, acknowledged that Michigan and other U.S. states are becoming an attractive prospect for firms. “The IRA has a tool we don’t have — tax credits.”

In Europe, the official added, businesses have to go through a “tendering process” in which government agencies assess companies’ proposals on their merits, with separate pots of money available for national and EU-level funds. But to get U.S. subsidies, “they just have to meet certain requirements. That’s attractive for industry.”

However, the official insisted Brussels isn’t worried about losing jobs to the U.S. just yet. The EU is making €800 million in funding available for a pilot auction under its Hydrogen Bank scheme to help subsidize the cost of producing the gas, while a range of other incentives exists to kickstart the industry and more are still being planned, the official said. “If the market is here, people will be here.”

America first

Mona Dajani, global head of the renewable energy deals at the law firm Shearman and Sterling, said that after the passage of the IRA, countries from Europe, Asia and the Middle East are investing in clean energy projects in the U.S. at a rate she’s not seen in her 25 years in the practice.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by Germán & Co

New power lines take a decade to build because of red tape, complains National Grid

Energy company blasts Britain’s planning rules amid ongoing row over delays

The Telegraph By Gareth Corfield,  July 11, 2023 

The boss of National Grid has complained that it takes a decade to build a new power line in an attack on planning red tape.

John Pettigrew, the company’s chief executive, said that Britain’s planning rules add seven years of delays to the construction time for cables.

His warning comes amid ongoing rows over delays in connecting new wind and solar farms to the UK’s electricity grid, which are threatening the Government’s target of making the network carbon neutral by 2035.

Speaking to shareholders at National Grid’s annual meeting, Mr Pettigrew said: “Typically, to build a transmission line in the UK it takes about 10 years.

“Seven of it is in the planning process and three in construction.”

Fierce rows have raged over delays to grid connections, with some renewable energy developers complaining that they have been pushed to the back of the queue until the 2030s.

National Grid itself is responsible for managing the waiting list of projects, but says it is forced to deliver them on a first come, first served basis that leaves legitimate schemes stuck in limbo behind others that are highly speculative and unlikely to ever be built.

Energy watchdog Ofgem’s chief executive has accused National Grid of presiding over “unacceptable” delays and threatened to strip the company of its role in the planning process.

The company, meanwhile, argues that the first come, first served rules are the problem and has called for reform. In February, National Grid told The Telegraph that it had a backlog of 600 requests to connect, even though around 70pc of such applications ultimately come to nothing.

Mr Pettigrew said on Monday: “The reason there’s a delay is those at the front of the queue, even if they have no intention of developing, actually hold up those people who are behind.

“We need a new regulatory framework to accelerate the ability for people who have genuinely got projects they want to get onto the system to the front of the queue.”

The one-time state monopoly’s boss added that there are “about three times more generation [companies] wanting to connect to the system than is actually needed to meet any of the net zero targets that have been set”.

Current plans require Britain to have up to 248 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation capacity by 2035, more than double today’s 104GW, as heating and cars go electric.

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Image by Germán & via Shutterstock

The Flawed Moral Logic of Sending Cluster Munitions to Ukraine

The New York Times By *The Editorial Board, July 10, 2023

*The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.

In the brutal logic of warfare, cluster munitions may appear to make solid sense for Ukraine’s slow-moving counteroffensive against well-dug-in Russian troops. Delivered by artillery, a 155-millimeter shell packed with 72 armor-piercing, soldier-killing bomblets can strike from 20 miles away and scatter them over a vast area.

On Friday, the Biden administration announced it would start delivering these weapons to Ukraine, over objections from, among others, human rights organizations and key allies. President Biden said the United States would supply cluster munitions from its large stockpile until suppliers could catch up with Ukraine’s shortage of conventional artillery shells, a key weapon in the static warfare in eastern and southern Ukraine.

With Ukraine using up ordinary artillery shells at a huge rate (the United States alone has sent more than two million rounds to Ukraine), the cluster munitions, of which the United States has a bountiful supply, could give Ukrainian forces an advantage in prying the Russians from their trenches and fortifications along the 620-mile-long front. Besides, Russia has been using its own cluster munitions, as has Ukraine, from the outset of the war, and Ukraine’s leaders have been urgently asking for more.

This is a flawed and troubling logic. In the face of the widespread global condemnation of cluster munitions and the danger they pose to civilians long after the fighting is over, this is not a weapon that a nation with the power and influence of the United States should be spreading.

However compelling it may be to use any available weapon to protect one’s homeland, nations in the rules-based international order have increasingly sought to draw a red line against use of weapons of mass destruction or weapons that pose a severe and lingering risk to noncombatants. Cluster munitions clearly fall into the second category.

The reason is that not all bomblets explode as they’re meant to, and thousands of small, unexploded grenades can lie around for years, even decades, before somebody — often, a child spotting a brightly colored, battery-size doodad on the ground — accidentally sets it off. The weapons used today by Russia and Ukraine are said to leave as many as 40 percent duds lying around, and they will remain a threat to the people of Ukraine, no matter the outcome of this conflict.

This danger prompted the adoption of a Convention on Cluster Munitions in 2008. The United Nations secretary general at the time, Ban Ki-moon, spoke of “not only the world’s collective revulsion at these abhorrent weapons but also the power of collaboration among governments, civil society and the United Nations to change attitudes and policies on a threat faced by all humankind.” As of today, 123 nations — including many of America’s allies — have agreed never to use, transfer, produce or stockpile cluster munitions.

But not Russia or Ukraine or the United States, which used cluster munitions in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, the United States actively opposed the treaty. This editorial board argued at the time: “As the main holdout, the United States gives cover to countries like Russia and China, which also rejected the ban. The treaty is weaker for it: Together, these three nations have more than a billion cluster munitions stockpiled, far more than the number of weapons expected to be destroyed.”

Defending the decision to supply the weapons to Ukraine, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, argued that Ukraine would not be using the munitions in a foreign land but on its own territory. “These are their citizens they’re protecting, and they are motivated to use any weapon system they have in a way that minimizes the risk to these citizens,” he said.

In fact, there is considerable risk. Cluster munitions used by both Ukrainian and Russian forces have led to, reportedly, at least dozens of civilian deaths and serious injuries, according to a Human Rights Watch report published Thursday. Specifically, the report said Ukrainian cluster-munition rocket attacks on Russian-controlled areas around the city of Izium in 2022 “caused many casualties among Ukrainian civilians.” (Ukraine denied that cluster munitions were used there.)

While it is Ukraine’s decision to choose what weapons it uses in its defense, it is for America to decide which weapons to supply. At the outset of the conflict, the United States resisted sending advanced weapons for fear of encouraging a wider war and Russian retaliation. But as the fighting dragged on and Ukraine proved increasingly capable of standing up to Russia, line after line has been crossed, with Washington and its allies agreeing to provide sophisticated weapons like the Patriot air-defense system, the HIMARS long-range rocket launcher, the Abrams tank and soon the F-16 jet fighter.

There is a legitimate debate about whether this amounts to the sort of mission creep that marked conflicts in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Sending cluster munitions to Ukraine amounts to a clear escalation of a conflict that has already become far too brutal and destructive. But the greater issue here is sharing a weapon that has been condemned by a majority of the world’s nations, including most of America’s close allies, as morally repugnant for the indiscriminate carnage it can cause long after the combatants have gone.

The Pentagon’s central defense against such proscriptions is that the dud rate of the American weapons — the number of bomblets that do not explode and are left on the battlefield — is down to 2.35 percent, compared with an estimated 40 percent for Russia’s. In 2008 the Pentagon set a limit of 1 percent on cluster munitions, and Congress has since banned the use, production or transfer of weapons over that rate. Even the 2.35 percent rate, an average, may be misleading. As John Ismay reported in The Times on Saturday, the cluster munitions in question may include an older type known to have a failure rate of 14 percent or more. That could leave the land littered with unexploded bombs.

The White House bypassed Congress by invoking a provision of the Foreign Assistance Act that allows the president to disregard arms export restrictions if he deems the aid to be a vital national security interest. Several members of Congress have denounced the export of these weapons and will add an amendment to the annual defense bill that would prohibit export of almost all cluster munitions.

This board has consistently supported the supply of arms to Ukraine by the United States and its allies. Ukraine is battling an invader prepared to use all sorts of weapons, including indiscriminate shelling of civilian targets. It needs and deserves help.

But providing weapons that much of the world justifiably condemns is wrong. The United States had wisely started to move away from the use of cluster munitions. To now disregard the long-term consequences of these weapons would undermine one of the fundamental reasons to support Ukraine: to defend the norms that secure peace and stability in Europe, norms that Russia violated so blatantly. Encouraging the use and proliferation of these weapons could weaken the support of allies who until this point have rallied behind American leadership.

The rain of bomblets may give Ukraine a military advantage in the short term, but it would not be decisive, and it would not outweigh the damage in suffering to civilians in Ukraine, now and likely for generations to come.

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News round-up, July 10, 2023

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Water is a precious resource that we have almost drained...

Water is considered the fundamental source and primordial element that precedes all forms. The philosopher, Thales of Miletus first introduced the concept of —-water's significance—-, suggesting that our understanding of its importance predates our comprehension of chemistry.

"We have a better understanding of the enormity of the cosmos that surpasses our comprehension of the immeasurable depths of the ocean.

In metaphysics, Aristotle emphasizes the significance of water as the primary element essential for preserving life. Water symbolizes:

"Mortality and renewal, purification, the cyclical nature of existence, and eternal recurrence.

Undoubtedly, water is an invaluable and indispensable resource for our sustenance. However, it has consistently been scarce throughout history. Water scarcity and conflict have a consistent correlation, evident in numerous historical contexts. This historical legacy can be traced back to ancient Babylon and has persisted through various conflicts, including the Vietnam War. Moreover, recent events remind us of the difficulties we confront in this matter, such as the dispersal of polluted water from the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe into the sea, prolonged periods of drought, and the escalating temperatures occurring in different parts of the world.

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Most read…

Water is more than a common good

As the ready availability of fresh water becomes increasingly threatened around the world, attention has focused on minimising water use. But that obscures how deeply political the issue of universal access to water is.

Franck Poupeau's Le Monde Diplomatique, July Editions

The South American capital with a week’s worth of water left

Workers have begun drilling wells in the capital to reach the water beneath the ground, while protests have erupted over shortages

The Telegraph By Harriet Barber, 7 July 2023

Five Ways the Bull Market Makes Investors Nervous

Investors can’t stop looking over their shoulders for major risks looming in markets

WSJ By Caitlin McCabe, July 10 , 2023

Putin met Prigozhin in Moscow after Wagner mutiny

Mercenary group ‘ready to continue to fight’ for Russia, Kremlin spokesperson says.

POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, JULY 10, 2023

After Yellen visit, China speaks of ‘rainbows’ but prepares for trade battle

In the complex realm of international relations, China aims to underscore the importance of collaboration and mutual understanding with the United States. Rather than perceiving each other as primary competitors vying for global dominance, China advocates for a different approach, urging the United States to abandon the concept of forming exclusive alliances akin to forming a gang.

TWP By Christian Shepherd, July 10, 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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The Central Arizona Project canal helps serve 80% of the population of Arizona, Peoria, 8 June 2023
Mario Tama 

Water is more than a common good

As the ready availability of fresh water becomes increasingly threatened around the world, attention has focused on minimising water use. But that obscures how deeply political the issue of universal access to water is.

Franck Poupeau's Le Monde Diplomatique, July Editions

Driving through southwestern Arizona under a scorching sun, I was struck by how absurd it is that while the western half of the United States is suffering a prolonged drought, new residential complexes are being built far into the Sonoran desert. The dusty plains of Pima County around Tucson airport are scattered with rundown housing without air conditioning and sometimes even running water. Yet just a few kilometres away there are luxury villas with valley views, surrounded by hundred-year-old cacti and elaborate desert gardens with artfully placed rocks, designed to comply with official injunctions not to waste water.

To support this urban sprawl and the economic benefits it brings, a canal diverts water from the Colorado river. Opened in 1993, the Central Arizona Project, 541km long and averaging seven metres wide, with 14 pumping plants and dozens of sluice gates, carries 85 cubic metres per second.

Pima County, which lives above its means in terms of water, is pursuing various environmental initiatives. The Santa Cruz river, which had been dry for decades because of excessive pumping from aquifers and waterways (for cattle ranching, agroindustry, cotton growing, mining and urban growth), is flowing again, with reclaimed wastewater from Tucson. It doesn’t quite amount to an ecological restoration project, which would entail re-establishing a fully functional water cycle and self-regulating ecosystem, but it highlights a key feature of our relationship with natural resources today, even when we have the best environmental intentions. Access to water depends on massive technological infrastructure (1) – in this case, water treatment plants (which use chemicals) and pipelines to carry the reclaimed water to the Santa Cruz. Commentary on water conflicts often overlooks this simple fact in favour of a broad and (apparently) generous idea that water should be considered a common good essential to life. This would imply a right to water, formalising the obvious link between nature and humanity. Yet nothing could be less natural than access to water and how societies have acquired it.

Move to managing demand

Civil engineer and city planner Bernard Barraqué (2) identifies three periods in the development of Europe’s water industry: the ‘age of quantity’, when civil engineering brought water from distant sources (19th century), the ‘age of quality’, when sanitary engineering and local government became involved (late 19th-early 20th centuries), and lastly the age of ‘integrated and demand-side management and environmental engineering’ (since the late 20th century). In this third age, he writes, the water industry has moved from supply management (expanding availability) to demand management (discouraging use) in which water is treated less as a natural resource than as a service, especially in cities.

Most international institutions have adopted this supply-and-demand model, but the Global Water Partnership (GWP) – a specialist intergovernmental organisation concerned with water resource management – criticises the apparent lack of concern over drought in EU directives, and the virtual absence of measures to encourage cutting back on water use. Although EU management plans call for increasing the water supply, demand management is ‘broadly missing in the current EU architecture’ (3). Which means ordinary citizens need to work even harder to use less water (give up swimming pools, brush their teeth and pee in the shower).

From water infrastructure to supply and demand policies, the problems are the same. Who should pay for the water we use?

But by placing the burden of responsibility on the individual, and depoliticising the issues – the building, ownership and monitoring of the infrastructure required for collective living – these exhortations to use less water actually limit the scope of what can be done.

Water supply and sewage usually depend on networks of pipes. While rejecting unnecessary mega-projects (huge reservoirs, canals to divert water from one region to another etc), we should not forget that even the worthiest environmental initiatives depend on technology, whether it’s reclaiming wastewater, capturing rainwater, restoring waterways or installing permeable paving.

Implementing these initiatives requires a knowledge of hydrology, economics (pricing, provider status, contracts) and especially environmental engineering which takes account of ecosystems. There are many ‘ecosystem infrastructure’ projects being developed (4), especially the eco-neighbourhoods of the global North, which offer alternative and decentralised solutions.

When water shortages cause conflict

In recent years, water policy has become a focus of attention because of recurrent droughts following severe disruption of the hydrosocial cycle (5): high temperatures lead to more evaporation, streams and rivers run dry, and aquifers are slow to replenish, so access to water is no longer guaranteed everywhere, all year round, even in areas not previously considered arid. Across a growing part of France, water agencies expect shortfalls of up to 50% of annual consumption by 2050. Water shortages have given rise to conflict, as between farmers and environmentalists over ‘mega-basins’ (see Is storing water the real answer?, in this issue). But it’s hard to see what can be done when the balance of political power is so unfavourable to reform.

Whether the starting point is water infrastructure or a vision of a common good to be managed through supply and demand policies, the practical problems are the same. Who should pay for the water we use? Who should finance, build and maintain supply networks, and, above all, who should own and control those networks? For years, it was the state: in Asia and Africa, governments often based their authority on water mega-projects such as irrigation canals and flood defences; and from the 19th century the landscape of the American West was shaped by federal investment in huge water and transport projects, and the greening of the desert.

Western governments saw cities as strategic hubs for growing the economies of developing countries, and in the 1980s and 90s pushed them to outsource the running of urban infrastructure to the private sector, so the water industry became part of the great dismantling of public services. Meanwhile, international institutions mobilised private enterprise to develop networks in the global South.

These policies challenged the universal distribution model that had been seen as the best response to the problem of access to water for all. In particular, water management and major engineering projects were considered too costly for the poor of emerging countries. Yet projects in a number of countries of the global South have shown that people who don’t have access to public water services (and therefore have to buy bottled water, have water delivered by tanker or pay for rainwater capture equipment) end up paying more than those living in neighbourhoods connected to the mains (6). Most would be able to help pay for the building of water networks, provided the service really met their needs. This is one of the paradoxes of demand for urban services: even in poor countries, people would rather have better access than free services.

So it’s not enough to argue that the world’s poorest should have access to water simply because they have the right to it. The situation in regions suffering from water stress shows that (setting aside criteria such as fairness and democratic participation) we need to determine whether the supply model established in Europe and the US in the 19th century – urban networks or operators covering a particular area – is still the best answer to growing demand. It could be better to focus on the decentralised solutions that are emerging in the global North, such as eco-neighbourhoods, which for now exist alongside infrastructure supplying relatively wide areas. These residential developments are equipped to treat wastewater on site, capture rainwater and produce sewage sludge to fertilise their vegetable gardens.

However, these practices, though touted by the well-to-do and politicians keen to promote green technology, may actually be undermining the economic viability of the universal distribution model. Promoters of ‘green secessionism’ have been accused of abandoning public services, and therefore solidarity with society’s poorest. Between the power of the water authorities and the might of the multinationals, is it enough to encourage water-saving measures without addressing the financial and political question that underpins the roll-out of water infrastructure for all?

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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People protest against the high levels of chloride and sodium in the drinking water, which were raised due to Uruguay's persistent drought CREDIT: EITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP

The South American capital with a week’s worth of water left

Workers have begun drilling wells in the capital to reach the water beneath the ground, while protests have erupted over shortages

The Telegraph By Harriet Barber, 7 July 2023

Uruguay’s capital is days away from running out of drinking water amid the nation’s worst drought in 74 years.

The government has told locals in Montevideo, a metropolis of more than 1.3 million people, that they have seven to ten days of drinking water left.

It follows a multi-year drought and high temperatures which have drained the city’s reservoirs. Officials announced that reserves are at 1.8 per cent of their capacity.

The state’s water company has begun drilling wells in the centre of the capital to reach the water beneath the ground, while protests have erupted over shortages.

Uruguay is the only country in Latin America to have achieved quasi-universal access to safe drinking water – meaning almost everyone has easy access to water free from contamination – after enshrining access to water as a fundamental right in a 2005 constitutional amendment.

However, locals have already been forced to turn to bottled water after the state-owned water company, Obras Sanitarias del Estado (OSE), began mixing salty water with fresh water to stretch supplies in June.

A bridge that emerged after 30 years under water of the Santa Lucia river at Paso Severino reservoir CREDIT: Ernesto Ryan

The mixing of salt water has triggered health concerns from vulnerable populations.

“It’s horrible. You can’t drink it,” teacher Adrian Dias told Reuters. “My wife has hypertension, so it’s impossible for her to drink this water for the amount of salt it has.”

Although the health minister said the mixed water was not a risk to most people, she advised people with hypertension and kidney disease, as well as those who are pregnant, to limit or avoid tap water completely.

Many residents in Montevideo and the surrounding area cannot afford to buy bottled water, and have been forced to keep drinking from the taps.

Anger over water shortages has incited multiple protests on the streets of Montevideo.

“There’s water, but it’s in private hands,” reads a banner hanging outside the offices of OSE, in Montevideo.

People take part in a protest called by Uruguay's Central Union in "defense of water" CREDIT: EITAN ABRAMOVICH/AFP

Federico Kreimerman, an OSE union leader, said agribusiness was partially to blame for Uruguay’s water woes, explaining water from the Santa Lucia River is syphoned off to private reservoirs for irrigation.

“The share of water for human consumption is tiny,” Mr Kreimerman told Reuters news agency. “Agribusiness entrepreneurs dam the river and use it for themselves.”

Redes-Amigos de la Tierra, an environmental protection group, also blamed the situation on “plundering” factories, rice-growing companies and soy farmers.

“Almost 80 per cent of our freshwater goes to the agricultural and forestry sector, so we can certainly say water resource exploitation is very high in Uruguay,” biologist and environmental expert Mariana Meerhoff told DW, a German media outlet.

“Because so much water is used in industry, the amount for water for personal use and nature is obviously very limited.”

Production has been paused in some of the city’s factories. The Frigorífico Canelones meatpacking company sent 700 workers to collect unemployment insurance when it halted production this week, according to the Buenos Aires Herald.

The dry lakebed of the Canelon Grande dam that normally provides drinking water for the capital CREDIT: Matilde Campodonico/AP

Climate change is exacerbating both water scarcity and water-related hazards, such as floods and droughts, in countries around the world. Neighbouring Argentina is also grappling with its worst drought in decades, which is having a severe impact on farming.

In June, Uruguay’s government declared a water emergency, exempting taxes on bottled water and ordering the construction of a new reservoir.

President Luis Lacalle Pou insisted his government was “hurrying all the works and trying to continue looking for alternative sources” of water.

The government is also distributing drinking water to vulnerable groups like schools, nursing homes and hospitals, said Gerardo Amarilla, undersecretary at Uruguay’s environment ministry.

At Canelon Grande Reservoir, a major water source for Montevideo, water levels have been so low that grass now covers what was once a lake.

“It’s bleak,” local Mario del Pino said, standing in the middle of the reservoir, surrounded by weeds and cracked dirt. “Water used to cover everything you can see.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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ILLUSTRATION BY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL/ Editing by Germán & Co

Five Ways the Bull Market Makes Investors Nervous

Investors can’t stop looking over their shoulders for major risks looming in markets

WSJ By Caitlin McCabe, July 10 , 2023

A familiar question has crept back onto Wall Street: Could this be the most-hated bull market ever?

The S&P 500 charged into bull-market territory in the first six months of 2023, marking a 20% rally from a recent low, yet investors say they can’t stop looking over their shoulders. Even after U.S. stocks overcame big risks—including repeated interest-rate hikes and a banking crisis—money managers say they aren’t convinced this rally is sustainable.

History shows that investors don’t tend to love bull markets when they are in them. Traders grumbled about the 11-year bull run born out of the financial crisis. So far this time, investor anxieties have been largely suppressed. Yet a drop in stocks and surge in bond yields last week after a round of strong economic data show how brittle the current bull market may be.

Investors say they are monitoring worrisome trends in the market. Here are five that are on their minds:

1. Earnings Season Could Reveal Hidden Weakness

S&P 500 companies' net profit margin

Source: FactSetNote: Q2 2023 is a blend of reported results and analyst forecasts.

Earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. Some investors are warning it could be bumpy.

Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report a 7.2% decline in earnings for the second quarter, FactSet data show, marking what would be the third consecutive year-over-year earnings decline.

Investors are on the lookout for whether corporate pricing power is ebbing. The net profit margin of companies in the S&P 500 is expected to fall to 11.4%, down slightly from the previous quarter and notably lower than the 13% peak reached in 2021. Companies might find themselves squeezed at both ends, investors say, as they face rising financing costs while also struggling to raise prices further as inflation ebbs.

“The market is pricing in a very angelic scenario [for earnings], and we are very reluctant to buy into that,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. His team has started trimming exposure to stocks in the firm’s flagship multiasset portfolio, he said, while also keeping 25% of it in cash.

2. The Yield Curve Inversion Is Deepening 

10-year U.S. Treasury yield minus two-year yield

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A year ago, the U.S. bond market began consistently flashing a recession signal. Lately, the warning has been getting louder.

Part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been persistently inverted since last July, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note slipped below that of its two-year counterpart. Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 1.08 percentage point below that of the two-year yield—the widest negative gap since 1981. 

Investors look to the U.S. Treasury yield curve as a gauge of economic health. When the curve inverts, that means bond traders are betting the Federal Reserve will keep rates high in the near term to fight inflation but will then need to cut them later to resuscitate the economy.

Some investors are betting the yield curve will trump more positive signs about growth, including recent data showing continuing resiliency in the labor market.

3. Global Markets Look Cloudy, Too 

Performance of global indexes, year-to-date

Source: FactSet

Markets outside the U.S. started 2023 on a positive note. China had just lifted its Covid-19 restrictions, stirring optimism that a flurry of spending from Chinese consumers would unleash economic growth at home and abroad. Asian stock indexes initially soared, as did those in Europe.

Since then, excitement has faded. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the red for the year, while the Shanghai Composite has gained just 3.5%. Europe’s pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 is up only slightly more—5.4% for the year—and on Thursday suffered its largest decline since March.

Fading optimism has been driven by darkened economic outlooks. The eurozone has slid into a recession, and investors continue to worry about the impact of the war in Ukraine and inflation that remains more stubborn compared with the U.S. China’s era of rapid growth, meanwhile, seems to be over, felled in part by its troubled property market, mounting debt burden and high youth unemployment. 

4. Trouble From Higher Rates Keeps Bubbling 

Response from market professionals when asked if higher rates will cause more accidents in​global markets

Source: Deutsche Bank Research Note: Based on survey of 400 global participants conducted June 27-29.

Accidents will continue and​cause some market stressAccidents will be quickly​contained, with limited​market impactBigger accidents are coming,​with serious financial stressUnlikely there will be any​more big accidents0%102030405060

Even the seemingly safest areas of the market are vulnerable to stress when interest rates rise. 

The first warning shot came last fall, when rising rates sparked turmoil in U.K. bond and currency markets. Then came Silicon Valley Bank, whose collapse was sparked in part by a disclosure that the bank had booked a $1.8 billion loss on its bond portfolio due to rising rates. Even British utility Thames Water has recently come under stress, as it grapples with a large debt load and rising debt-service costs.

Many investors say they are nervous about what could break next. A June Deutsche Bank survey of market professionals showed that nearly all of its 400 respondents expect higher rates to cause more global accidents. Some 18% of them believe the strains will be significant, causing “serious financial stress.”

5. U.S. Stock Positioning Looks Stretched

Average investor positioning levels in U.S. stocks, five-day rolling average

Source: JPMorgan Data Assets & Alpha Group, Positioning IntelligenceNote: Positioning reflects multiple investor types, including hedge funds, retail investors, mutual funds, and in​the options market. A value of '0' marks the average over the last eight years.

After sitting on the sidelines at the start of this year, asset managers, hedge funds and individual investors have picked up buying activity, joining quant funds.

Together, that buying has pushed their U.S. stock market positioning to its highest level in nearly 18 months, according to an estimate from JPMorgan Chase. Positioning in some parts of the tech sector, namely software and semiconductor companies, looks particularly stretched, said Eloise Goulder, head of the data assets and alpha group at the bank.

This crowded positioning has stirred worries that U.S. stocks could be vulnerable to a rapid reversal. Eight stocks in the S&P 500—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla and Nvidia—now account for 30% of the index’s market capitalization, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Tech’s influence, combined with crowded positioning, could magnify moves in the market if sentiment shifts and investors try to simultaneously exit positions.

FOMO, or fear of missing out, “is in full swing,” JPMorgan strategists led by Mislav Matejka said in a recent note. 

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Yevgeny Prigozhin shows Vladimir Putin his school lunch factory outside Saint Petersburg in 2010 | Alexey Druzhinin/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

Putin met Prigozhin in Moscow after Wagner mutiny

Mercenary group ‘ready to continue to fight’ for Russia, Kremlin spokesperson says.

POLITICO EU BY NICOLAS CAMUT, JULY 10, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in the Kremlin after the paramilitary group’s aborted mutiny last month, according to Russian media reports.

“This meeting took place in the Kremlin on June 29. It lasted almost three hours,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday, according to state-owned newswire Ria Novosti.

Prigozhin rebelled against the Russian military establishment on June 23, seizing the city of Rostov-on-Don the next morning and sending his Wagner Group mercenaries on a march to Moscow. The mutinous warlord only turned his tanks around as they came within 200 kilometers of the Russian capital and threatened to tip the country into civil war.

Thirty-five people were invited to attend the high-stakes Moscow meeting, including “all the commanders of the military detachments” and Prigozhin, Peskov said.

During the meeting in the Kremlin, Putin “gave an assessment of the company’s actions” on the front line in Ukraine and of “the events of [the rebellion on] June 24,” the spokesperson said.

The Wagner commanders were then offered “further options for employment and further combat use,” Peskov said, adding that the paramilitaries said they were “ready to continue to fight” for Russia.

“Putin listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them further options for employment and further combat use,” Peskov added.

After the mutiny was aborted following talks between Prigozhin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who negotiated a climbdown from the mercenaries, the Wagner leader was supposed to be exiled to Belarus.

He has not, however, been seen in public since. Lukashenko initially confirmed that Prigozhin had popped up in Belarus, before later saying that he wasn’t actually there — and could even be in Russia.

Usually very active on social media, oligarch-turned warlord Prigozhin has been discreet since the mutiny ended — only appearing a couple times on Telegram.

Wagner troops have been involved in some of the bloodiest fighting in Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including in the city of Bakhmut which was battered for months by invading Russian forces during the winter and spring.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing on Saturday. (Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/AP) / Editing by Germán & Co

After Yellen visit, China speaks of ‘rainbows’ but prepares for trade battle

In the complex realm of international relations, China aims to underscore the importance of collaboration and mutual understanding with the United States. Rather than perceiving each other as primary competitors vying for global dominance, China advocates for a different approach, urging the United States to abandon the concept of forming exclusive alliances akin to forming a gang.

TWP By Christian Shepherd, July 10, 2023 

BEIJING — China hailed the absence of major contention during the visit to Beijing by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen as progress toward easing long-standing tensions, even as it continues to prepare for a protracted standoff with the United States over critical technologies.

In a statement released Monday, the Finance Ministry called discussions over Yellen’s four-day visit “frank, pragmatic, in-depth and constructive” while giving China an opportunity to clarify its position on what constitutes “healthy economic competition.”

But Chinese scholars and policy advisers have also underscored that serious disagreement remains over the ground rules for the trade relationship. They said that Beijing is unwilling to accept the terms of economic engagement being offered and will continue to strike back at what it sees as unfair trade restrictions imposed by Washington.

Yellen hails modest gains in economic talks with Chinese leaders

Tensions remain in part because China is strongly opposed to even limited trade restrictions on sensitive technologies, especially when American allies and partners are involved, said Lu Feng, an economist at Peking University.

“China wants to convince the United States that working together requires not viewing us as a primary competitor or gathering your friends to form a gang,” he said.

On Friday, Premier Li Qiang — the face of China’s efforts to attract foreign businesses and revive a sluggish economy — spoke of “rainbows” after the storm when receiving Yellen in the Great Hall of the People, before warning against “total politicization and securitization” of the economic relationship and urging that the United States see China’s development as a “plus not a risk.”

Unlike past engagement with the United States, talks now are less about expanding the relationship and more about “recalibrating” within the United States’ framework of great power competition, said Sun Chenghao, a research fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

Beijing’s dislike of that framing makes it more likely to drive a hard bargain. “China will more often conduct exchanges based on its own interests where benefits for each side are reciprocal, rather than going along with requests for cooperation from the United States,” he said.

U.S. and European policymakers are increasingly talking about “de-risking” to broaden economic supply lines, lessen dependence on the Chinese economy and reduce Chinese access to advanced technologies with military applications — a distinction from “decoupling” that Beijing does not buy.

For China, de-risking is little better than earlier threats of “decoupling” because the meaningful content is the same, said Shen Yamei, director of American Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank under the Foreign Ministry.

“The U.S. interpretation of de-risking is actually de-Sinification, which is to say that it means excluding China,” she said.

U.S. and Chinese flags before Yellen's meeting in Beijing on Saturday. (Mark Schiefelbein/Pool/Reuters)

Yet even as it criticizes de-risking, China is engaging in a series of measures to confront the U.S. economy, including lessening its dependence on American manufacturers.

Days before Yellen was due to touch down, the government announced export controls on metals primarily found in China that are critical for the manufacture of microchips and fiber optic cables — Beijing’s first official “rare earth” restrictions since an export control law was passed in 2020.

The announcement was part of a years-long effort to become better equipped to stare down the United States in a trade and technology war that began under the Trump administration and, from Beijing’s perspective, continued — at lower volume — under President Biden.

Unlike during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit last month, Yellen did not meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who spent the day of her arrival visiting the Eastern Theater Command, the branch of the military in charge of enforcing Beijing’s claims over self-governed Taiwan.

Underscoring the importance Xi places on building indigenous advanced manufacturing capabilities, he also visited HYC Technologies, a tester of machinery used for semiconductors and electric vehicles, as part of his tour of Jiangsu province.

Beijing has long used its economic heft as leverage in geopolitical standoffs, including temporary restrictions on rare earth metal exports to Japan in 2010. But more recently, the Chinese government has rapidly expanded a framework of laws and regulations that Chinese experts tout as a means to fight back should the tentative détente fail.

China’s export controls were a countermeasure to “unbearable bullying” from the United States, Chen Fengying, a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank under the Ministry of State Security, told state-run media.

Before Yellen arrived, Chinese officials made exacting demands for substantial shifts in U.S. trade policy, including canceling plans to add new tariffs on imports and reversing a Trump-era intellectual property investigation’s ruling that underpins existing ones.

The export controls come on top of a string of actions that have spooked the international business community. Authorities raided American firms Mintz and Bain, and Chinese police publicly named and shamed expert network Capvision, a Chinese company with offices in New York and a large number of international clients, over alleged spying.

Revisions to Chinese counterespionage laws that came into effect on July 1 have heightened the United States’ concerns about national security impinging on business interests — fears intensified by the growing use of exit bans to prevent foreigners and Chinese alike from leaving.

China’s national security ban on sales of U.S.-made Micron memory chips to Chinese entities involved in key infrastructure has also been interpreted as a sign that long-running efforts to curb dependence on American-sourced components are accelerating.

If an American company in China works on areas deemed sensitive and critical for the country’s future development, “you can start planning your exit strategy,” said one Beijing-based executive who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “It’s a question of when, not if.”

News that the United States had updated its travel advisory for China to urging U.S. citizens to reconsider travel to the country over concerns about arbitrary enforcement of local laws also sparked an angry response last week. China’s Foreign Ministry called it “gratuitous political manipulation.”

For some Chinese scholars, American concern over China’s evolving national security legislation is just another sign that there is no immediate end in sight to the tensions.

“China asks the United States to understand how its legal system is built but doesn’t expect complete acceptance,” said Wang Wen, executive dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University. “Going forward, China-U.S. contestation will continue to be very intense.”

News round-up, July 7, 2023

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Editorial…

Why do the monetary authorities refuse to recognize that we are —or very close— in a deep economic crisis, perhaps one of the worst in history?

The New York Times, in the October 20, 2023 edition, published the following article: “A Warning for the World Economy: "The Worst Is Yet to Come" The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth outlook for 2023 and has suggested that interest rate increases could trigger a severe global recession. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the global economy was facing challenging times ahead. The IMF downgraded its projections for global growth for the upcoming year and cautioned that a severe global recession could occur if policymakers mishandled the battle against inflation. The grim assessment was detailed in the fund's closely watched World Economic Outlook report, which was published as the world's top economic officials traveled to Washington for the annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF. The gathering arrives at a critical time, as ongoing supply chain disruptions and Russia's conflict in Ukraine have resulted in a significant increase in energy and food prices in the past year. As a result, central bankers have been compelled to raise interest rates significantly in order to stabilize their economies and mitigate inflationary pressures. Raising borrowing costs will likely curb inflation by reducing business investment and consumer spending. Still, higher interest rates could also lead to a new set of problems: a series of recessions in wealthy nations and debt crises in poorer ones…

Everything points today at to the International Monetary Fund's economic prognosis being fulfilled.

Today the media outlets worldwide focus on the stock market's "unfavorable" performance and the predictions of an upcoming financial crisis. This morning, “The Telegraph U.K.” reported that the stock market had experienced a significant decline due to concerns about possible interest rate increases. As a result, borrowing costs have risen to their highest level in 15 years. This drop is a result of a worldwide "sell-off" triggered by high inflation... On Thursday, the stock market experienced a sharp decline, causing government borrowing costs to soar to their highest level since 2008. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 index reached its lowest point this year, while gilts climbed to their highest level in over a decade. This market behavior was driven by investors speculating that the Bank of England would raise interest rates to 6.5% by the beginning of next year.

Furthermore, unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs data has raised concerns about potential price increases across the Atlantic, further exacerbating the situation. The FTSE 100 index fell by 2.17% due to worries that higher interest rates would have a negative impact on company investments and consumer demand. Paris markets closed with a 3.13% decline, and shares fell by 2.57% in Germany. On Wall Street, the S& P 500 index experienced a 0.8% decline. HSBC, one of the largest mortgage lenders in Britain, announced on Thursday evening that it would be withdrawing all deals offered to new customers through brokers for the third time in a month. This decision burdens borrowers more, as the bank plans to reintroduce these deals with higher interest rates on Monday. The market turmoil has also led to a significant increase in the Treasury's borrowing costs.

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Most read…

Is China really leading the clean energy revolution? Not exactly

The country generates more solar energy than all other countries combined, but burns half the planet’s coal. There are lessons here for the rest of us, though

The Guardian by *Li Shuo, July 6, 2023 

‘Revolutionary’ solar power cell innovations break key energy threshold

Next generation cells surpass limits of today’s cells and will accelerate rollout of cheaper, more efficient solar power

The Guardian by Damian Carrington Environment editor, July 7, 2023

Stock market falls sharply amid fears of further interest rate rises

Borrowing costs soar to 15-year high amid global sell-off triggered by rampant inflation

The Telegraph By Szu Ping Chan and Adam Mawardi, July 6,  2023 

EXCLUSIVE: “Inside the subsea cable firm secretly helping America take on China…

SubCom, a New Jersey company born out of a Cold War spy project, has become a key player in the U.S.-China tech war. It’s laying internet cables on the ocean floor to boost Washington’s economic and military might, including a clandestine mission to a remote island naval base, Reuters can reveal.

REUTERS By JOE BROCK, July 6, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image by Germán & Co

‘Revolutionary’ solar power cell innovations break key energy threshold

Next generation cells surpass limits of today’s cells and will accelerate rollout of cheaper, more efficient solar power

The Guardian by Damian Carrington Environment editor, July 7, 2023

Solar power cells have raced past the key milestone of 30% energy efficiency, after innovations by multiple research groups around the world. The feat makes this a “revolutionary” year, according to one expert, and could accelerate the rollout of solar power.

Today’s solar panels use silicon-based cells but are rapidly approaching their maximum conversion of sunlight to electricity of 29%. At the same time, the installation rate of solar power needs to increase tenfold in order to tackle the climate crisis, according to scientists.

The breakthrough is adding a layer of perovskite, another semiconductor, on top of the silicon layer. This captures blue light from the visible spectrum, while the silicon captures red light, boosting the total light captured overall. With more energy absorbed per cell, the cost of solar electricity is even cheaper, and deployment can proceed faster to help keep global heating under control.

The perovskite-silicon “tandem” cells have been under research for about a decade, but recent technical improvements have now pushed them past the 30% milestone. Experts said that if the scaling-up of production of the tandem cells proceeds smoothly, they could be commercially available within five years, about the same time silicon-only cells reach their maximum efficiency.

Two groups published the details of their efficiency breakthroughs in the journal Science on Thursday, and at least two others are known to have pushed well beyond 30%.

“This year is a revolutionary year,” said Prof Stefaan De Wolf, at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia. “It’s very exciting that things are moving rapidly with multiple groups.”

The current efficiency record for silicon-only solar cells is 24.5% in commercial cells and 27% in the laboratory. The latter may well be as close the cells can practically get to the theoretical maximum of 29%.

But one group, led by Prof Steve Albrecht at the Helmholtz Center Berlin for Materials and Energy in Germany, has now published information about how they achieved efficiencies of up to 32.5% for silicon-perovskite cells. The other group, led by Dr Xin Yu Chin at the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, Switzerland, demonstrated an efficiency of 31.25% and said tandem cells had the “potential for both high efficiency and low manufacturing costs”.

“What these two groups have shown are really milestones,” said De Wolf. His own group achieved 33.7% efficiency with a tandem cell in June, but has yet to publish the results in a journal. All the efficiency measurements were independently verified.

“Overcoming the 30% threshold provides confidence that high performance, low-cost PVs can be brought to the market,” said De Wolf. Global solar power capacity reached 1.2 terawatts (TW) in 2022. “Yet to avert the catastrophic scenarios associated with global warming, the total capacity needs to increase to about 75TW by 2050,” he said.

The solar industry is also part of the race to high efficiency. Chinese company LONGi, the world’s biggest producer of solar cells, announced in June they had reached 33.5% in their research. “Reducing the cost of electricity remains the perpetual theme driving the development of the photovoltaic industry,” said Li Zhenguo, the president of LONGi.

“The industry is running very, very fast,” De Wolf said. “And I’m sure that multiple companies are working on this in China.” Europe and the US need to increase its research and development funding to keep up and contribute to an accelerating roll out of solar power, he said.

A worker produces photovoltaic modules used for solar panels at a factory in China’s eastern Jiangsu province in May 2023. China is one of the leaders in the race to high solar efficiency. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

All of the high-efficiency tandem cells above 30% efficiency are small so far, measuring 1cm by 1cm. They now need to be scaled up to the size of commercial cells, which are 16-cm squares.

The scale-up is already under way with UK company Oxford PV announcing in May a record 28.6% efficiency for a commercial-size cell. “Solar is already one of the least expensive and cleanest forms of energy available, and our technology will make it even more affordable,” said Chris Case, chief technology officer at Oxford PV.

The Oxford PV cell was made on the same production line as conventional silicon-only cells, making the large-scale production of tandem cells far easier. Tandem cells may prove to be more expensive than silicon-only cells, but the cells are only a small part of the cost of producing and installing solar panels, De Wolf said.

One issue that remains to be resolved is how fast the tandem cells degrade over time in real-world conditions. Today’s solar cells still have 80-90% of their capacity after 25 years and De Wolf said tandems would have to match that, but that there was only limited data on their stability to date.

The key to the higher efficiencies of the tandem cells from the German and Swiss groups was tackling tiny defects on the surface of the perovskite layer. These allow some electrons liberated by solar photons to flow back into the perovskite, rather than contributing to the cell’s electrical current and therefore reducing its efficiency.

The solution was to put a layer of organic molecules between the perovskite and the conducting layer through which the current flows, which compensated for the defects.

Significantly, all the groups used different methods to address the problem, giving more options in the search for the best commercial design, said De Wolf. “There’s still lots of room to go further,” he said. “I believe that the practical limit is well beyond 35%.”

Prof Rob Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, said: “Solar is already a low-cost way to generate electricity and has a wide resource base across the world. The cost reductions already achieved are the main reason solar now plays such a large role in scenarios of decarbonised energy systems. Improvements in efficiency have the potential to increase the output of solar and therefore will help to reinforce that effect.”

There are other technologies, such as multi-junction cells, which can have efficiencies as high as 47%, but these are very expensive to produce and would only be suitable for niche uses such as on space satellites or when sunlight is highly concentrated on to the cells.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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A molten salt tower harvests solar power in Jiuquan, north-west China. Photograph: Hu Chengwei/Editing by Germán & Co

Is China really leading the clean energy revolution? Not exactly

The country generates more solar energy than all other countries combined, but burns half the planet’s coal. There are lessons here for the rest of us, though

The Guardian by *Li Shuo, July 6, 2023 

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“Big numbers are a hallmark of China’s economy and now its energy transition: they thrill, they mystify, and at times they contradict, at least on the surface.

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China’s solar capacity is now 228 gigawatts (GW), more than the rest of the world combined, according to Global Energy Monitor. And wind capacity, at a whopping 310GW, also leads the world. With another 750GW of new wind and solar projects in the pipeline, China will hit its 2030 target of 1,200GW – an unimaginable number when proposed just a few years ago – five years early.

Scratching through the big numbers, two issues deserve the world’s deeper understanding. The first is that China’s successful clean technology campaign has more to do with its economic strategy than its climate commitments. The second is that, alongside its impressive achievements in renewable energy, China is also one of the world’s biggest polluters. Neither is likely to change imminently.

The ability to manufacture at scale and quality, and deploy funds competitively, underpins China’s impressive growth of wind and solar, as well as electric vehicles. This is the outcome of an industrial policy that features consistent state support, highly integrated supply chains, cut-throat competition, indigenous innovation and entrepreneurship, and the economies of scale that only a country the size of China can offer. China’s EV manufacturers, for example, have been supplying millions of cars in a fiercely competitive domestic market for years, and have been boosted by government support. In contrast, their western counterparts are only beginning to enjoy a similar market scale at home. They also face stronger resistance from conventional vehicle producers.

This is not to say that the rest of the world is hopeless in the face of an established clean technology giant. But other countries need to do much better in translating cutting-edge technologies into actual manufacturing. Western countries have prided themselves on innovations in the lab for so long. Failing to bring them to the factory floor or to realise that many innovations take place along the assembly line would be a grave mistake.

For China, the good news is that the economic conditions that propelled its rapid clean technology growth are here to stay. Astronomical numbers are the forecast for the foreseeable future. If anything, Chinese solar and electric vehicle manufacturers will become more efficient and supply ever cheaper solutions to reduce carbon emissions nationally and globally.

These opportunities are key points of leverage as the international community tries to appeal for greater climate ambition from China. Climate diplomats coming to Beijing need to help Chinese leaders realise the alignment between their economic agenda and the climate agenda. Global climate conversations in places such as the G20 and Cops will be better served if they incentivise Chinese action based on its strengths.

China’s current and future domination of clean technology also raises important questions for other countries. Can they become more cost-efficient than China? Are they prepared, economically and politically, to risk the bankruptcy and failure suffered by their Chinese counterparts before many of them emerged as industry leaders? What does deglobalisation in the clean energy supply chain mean for the effort of combating climate crisis? For sound policies and a liveable planet, these questions require serious thought by world leaders, but they have so far been overshadowed by geopolitical zeal.

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Meanwhile, China’s rapid clean energy expansion needs to be read together with its continued expansion of new coal power. More than half of all coal the world consumed over the past decade was consumed in China, and the country’s coal fever shows no sign of waning. Just in the first quarter of 2023, provincial governments in China have already approved at least 20.45GW of new coal projects. Coal combustion is currently projected to increase at a “reasonable speed” into 2030.

While the pro-growth and pro-infrastructure development mentality has boosted China’s clean energy sector, it is exactly the same logic that fuels coal development. Beijing is simultaneously becoming the biggest solution provider and the biggest troublemaker.

But in the current climate crisis, the world cannot afford this trend of renewable energy and coal going head to head with one another. Currently, the percentage of China’s electricity that is generated by wind and solar is expected to grow by less than 1% a year between 2023 and 2030. At this rate, the country may achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030, but is less likely to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, as President Xi Jinping pledged in 2020.

The challenge for China is to maintain its record on clean technology but to shut off the coal pipeline. That will require decisive reforms in its power sector, where many of the rules still favour coal over clean energy sources. Technological solutions such as energy storage could also help the transition in the interim. But ultimately, the country needs to gather the political courage to stop building coal plants and start phasing them out.

As for the rest of the world, global persuasion for China to shift its course on coal is critical. Climate diplomacy won’t be pain free, but it is the only way to tackle the defining global crisis of our times. Countries in the west also need to learn from China, even if there is no simple cut-and-paste solution for them. It is a blessing that a template for success exists. Refusing to learn from each other, in a world where countries are more interested in fighting one another than climate change, would be futile.

*Li Shuo is senior policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Borrowing costs reach highest level since financial crisis, Blomberg / Editing by Germán & Co

Stock market falls sharply amid fears of further interest rate rises

Borrowing costs soar to 15-year high amid global sell-off triggered by rampant inflation

The Telegraph By Szu Ping Chan and Adam Mawardi, July 6,  2023 

The stock market fell sharply and Government borrowing costs soared to a 15-year high on Thursday amid a global sell-off triggered by rampant inflation and rising interest rates.

In Britain, the FTSE 100 fell to its lowest level this year, while gilts climbed to their highest since 2008 as investors bet the Bank of England will raise interest rates to 6.5pc by the start of next year.

Further chaos was caused by unexpectedly strong US jobs data, leading to fears that price rises might also take off across the Atlantic.

The prospect that higher interest rates would hit company investment and consumer demand sent the FTSE 100 down 2.17pc. Paris markets closed down 3.13pc and in Germany, shares fell 2.57pc. The S&P 500 fell 0.8pc on Wall Street.

In a sign of more pain to come for borrowers, HSBC – one of Britain’s biggest mortgage lenders – announced late on Thursday that it was pulling all deals offered to new customers through brokers for the third time in a month. The bank will return to the market on Monday with higher rates.

The chaos also sent the Treasury’s borrowing costs sharply higher.

Two-year gilt yields, which are more sensitive to interest rate bets, rose above 5.5pc to their highest since 2008. Benchmark 10-year borrowing costs almost hit 4.7pc, rising above their highs in the aftermath of then-Prime Minister Lizz Truss’s tax-cutting mini-Budget.

Nearly all stocks on the FTSE 100 sank on Thursday, with Britain’s blue chip index recording its worst one-day drop since the US regional banking crisis sparked a brutal sell-off in March.

The UK’s blue-chip index ended trading at 7,280.50, its lowest point since November 3. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 midcap index finished down 2.59pc at 17,916.46.

It came as US statistics showed that 497,000 new private sector jobs were created last month, more than double analysts’ estimates.

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The strong reading will add to speculation of higher rates, a day after the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed that “almost all” policymakers expected more increases despite agreeing to hold rates last month.

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The Bank of England has already increased rates 13 times to 5pc in an attempt to cool the economy. Lifting them to 6.5pc would take borrowing costs to the highest level since 1998.

Analysts warned that the surge has also left taxpayers on the hook for much bigger losses from Threadneedle Street’s money-printing programme.

”Losses from QT will be greater the higher Bank Rate and yields go,” she said. “These costs should not be underestimated – a reasonable base case could be that together, the cumulative hit between now and end-2026 could be higher than £150bn.”

This would be around 50pc higher than Bank estimates published only in April.

The Bank estimated in its annual report on Thursday that the Treasury would be forced to stump up £191bn if it sold off its entire bond stockpile in one go under an indemnity deal struck during the financial crisis.

This is up from £22bn last year, and reflects the surge in borrowing costs.

A separate report by Moody’s Analytics warned more fixed-rate mortgages in the UK had created a “refinancing time bomb”, while also damping the impact of rate rises.

It said people who fixed their mortgage two years ago faced the most “severe” increases in payments, with a typical borrower now facing a near £500 jump in monthly payments.

“As a share of average incomes, this represents a larger increase than in those periods of the past when interest rates rose,” said David Muir, . More than a million families will refinance in the next 12 months.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Source: REUTERS

Inside the subsea cable firm secretly helping America take on China

SubCom, a New Jersey company born out of a Cold War spy project, has become a key player in the U.S.-China tech war. It’s laying internet cables on the ocean floor to boost Washington’s economic and military might, including a clandestine mission to a remote island naval base, Reuters can reveal.

REUTERS By JOE BROCK, July 6, 2023

On Feb. 10 last year, the cable ship CS Dependable appeared off the coast of the island of Diego Garcia, an Indian Ocean atoll that’s home to a discreet U.S. naval base.

Over the next month, the ship’s crew covertly laid an underwater fiber-optic cable to the military base, an operation code-named “Big Wave,” according to four people with direct knowledge of the mission, as well as a Reuters analysis of satellite imagery and ship tracking data.

The new super-fast internet link to Diego Garcia, which has not previously been reported, will boost U.S. military readiness in the Indian Ocean, a region where China has expanded its naval influence over the last decade.

The CS Dependable is owned by SubCom, a small-town New Jersey cable manufacturer that’s playing an outsized role in a race between the United States and China to control advanced military and digital technologies that could decide which country emerges as the world’s preeminent superpower.

SubCom, a company born out of a U.S. Cold War project to spy on Soviet submarines, is living a double life.

Publicly, it is one of the world’s biggest developers of undersea fiber-optic cables for telecom firms and tech giants like Alphabet’s Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms.

Behind the scenes, SubCom is the exclusive undersea cable contractor to the U.S. military, laying a web of internet and surveillance cables across the ocean floor, according to the four people with knowledge of the matter: two SubCom employees and two U.S. Navy staffers. The individuals asked not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the operations.

The cable-laying vessel CS Dependable is shown docked at Taiwan’s Port of Taichung on April 18, 2023. The ship’s private-sector owner, New Jersey-based SubCom, is central to Washington’s efforts to deter foreign spying on international internet traffic moving through undersea fiber-optic cables. REUTERS/Ann Wang

This dual role has made SubCom increasingly valuable to Washington as global internet infrastructure – from undersea cables to data centers and 5G mobile networks – risks fracturing into two systems, one backed by the United States, the other controlled by China.

SubCom is owned by Cerberus Capital Management, a New York-based private equity firm that has invested in defense contractors and national security assets. Last year, Cerberus paid $300 million for a Philippine shipyard on a former U.S. Navy base close to the South China Sea, beating out Chinese competitors for control of a strategic site in a region where Beijing has been flexing its military muscle.

Cerberus is headed by Stephen Feinberg, a billionaire political donor whom former President Donald Trump drafted onto the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board, which counsels the commander-in-chief on U.S. foreign intelligence matters.

SubCom, Cerberus and Feinberg did not respond to requests for comment.

Presented with Reuters’ findings, a spokesperson for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet confirmed the existence of a new high-speed undersea internet cable to Diego Garcia. It was the first official acknowledgement of that cable.

“The resiliency, redundancy, and security of our communication infrastructure represents a top priority for U.S. Pacific Fleet,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

The statement said the Navy could not discuss specifics for operational security reasons. The Navy did not respond to Reuters’ questions about SubCom or name the company in its statement.

SubCom’s journey from Cold War experiment to global cable constructor and now a shadowy player in the U.S.-China tech war is detailed in this story for the first time.

SubCom is owned by Cerberus Capital Management, a New York private equity firm with investments in defense contractors. Stephen Feinberg, co-founder and co-chief executive of Cerberus, is a billionaire political donor. He was tapped by former U.S. President Donald Trump to serve on a national security advisory board. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration

Reuters is revealing details of the Diego Garcia project and SubCom’s deepening ties with the Pentagon. The news agency is also the first to report on a confidential contract the company secured from tech giant Google to build the world’s largest private undersea internet network.

That partnership is the kind of America Inc project that President Joe Biden has been calling for in his drive to promote U.S. advanced technologies.

Google did not respond to requests for comment.

Undersea cables transmit 99% of all transcontinental internet traffic, including instant messenger chats, stock market transactions and military secrets. This underwater network has become one of the key weapons in the U.S.-China tech war, as detailed in a Reuters investigation published in March. Subsea cables are vulnerable to sabotage and espionage, and Beijing and Washington have accused each other of tapping cables to spy on data or carry out cyberattacks.

SubCom’s increasing importance to the United States can be split into two categories, one military and one economic, according to two subsea cable industry officials who have worked on U.S. government projects.

Based in the small borough of Eatontown, New Jersey, undersea internet cable firm SubCom is playing an outsized role in the race between the United States and China to dominate advanced technologies. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

First, Washington needs SubCom to expand the Navy’s undersea cable network so that it can better coordinate military operations and enhance surveillance on China’s expanding fleet of submarines and warships, the people said. Second, the Biden administration wants SubCom to build more commercial subsea internet cables controlled by U.S. companies, a strategy aimed at ensuring that America remains the primary custodian of the internet, according to the two industry officials.

SubCom operates six cable-laying ships: bespoke deep-sea vessels fitted with vast storage drums to hold sheaves of fiber-optic cable. The Navy has only one such ship – the 40-year-old USNS Zeus – a vessel so old that it is limited to carrying out repairs, according to Eckhard Bruckschen, director of the UK-based Undersea Cable Consultancy.

“SubCom is indispensable to America if it wants to control subsea cables. They’ve got no one else,” Bruckschen told Reuters.

There are only four major companies in the world that manufacture and lay subsea cables: America’s SubCom, Japan’s NEC Corporation, France’s Alcatel Submarine Networks and China’s HMN Tech.

For sensitive U.S. projects, Washington only works with SubCom, according to five industry sources who have worked on projects with the cable company.

The U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

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Picking sides

Until a U.S. crackdown on Chinese tech companies ramped up five years ago, SubCom laid cables for telecom and tech companies worldwide, including the big state-owned Chinese carriers.

Not anymore. The cable firm now works almost exclusively for the U.S. military and big U.S. tech firms, two SubCom employees told Reuters.

SubCom’s pivot reflects a sea change underway in the internet infrastructure industry, which has long seen choosing sides in great-power politics as bad for business. But U.S. sanctions on Chinese tech companies and an increase in trade-protectionist policies under Biden and his predecessor Trump have forced American tech firms to work mainly with companies and countries viewed as friendly to the United States.

The U.S. Department of Justice in 2020 blocked Google, Meta and Amazon from building fiber-optic cables from the United States to Hong Kong due to concerns about Chinese spying.

Microsoft – whose President Brad Smith said in 2017 that the tech sector needed to be a “neutral digital Switzerland”– announced in May that it had discovered Chinese state-sponsored hackers targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, a rare example of a big tech firm calling out Beijing for espionage. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at the time that the accusations were part of a U.S. disinformation campaign, describing America as the “empire of hacking.”

In December of last year, the Pentagon awarded $9 billion worth of Cloud computing contracts to Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle, entrusting these companies to keep America’s most closely held secrets under digital lock and key.

Sailors participate in a July 2021 beach cleanup on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, home to a remote U.S. Navy base. SubCom last year delivered super-fast internet service to the atoll via a secret spur off a commercial undersea fiber-optic cable it was laying nearby. U.S. Navy via Reuters

“Silicon Valley is waking up to the reality that it has to pick a side,” said Jacob Helberg, former head of Google’s news policy and a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a government agency.

Google did not respond to a request for comment. Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle declined to comment.

SubCom’s loyalty is especially important because it is the only major U.S. subsea cable company. Headquartered in the quiet borough of Eatontown, New Jersey, SubCom secured a $10 million-a-year contract in 2021 from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to run a two-vessel fleet to provide undersea cable security, according to one SubCom employee and one Navy staffer with knowledge of the deal. A 2020 DOT notice to prospective applicants said winners would be responsible for laying, maintaining and repairing subsea cables to support U.S. national security and economic interests, in partnership with the Department of Defense.

The SubCom ships CS Dependable and CS Decisive now make up the U.S. government’s first Cable Security Fleet, the people said.

The DOT and SubCom did not respond to requests for comment.

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Operation ‘Big Wave’

One of CS Dependable’s destinations was Diego Garcia, a horseshoe-shaped atoll which hosts U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines, and has an airfield capable of landing long-range bombers.

Located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, Diego Garcia is a British overseas territory. Since the 1970s, Britain has allowed the United States to operate a naval base there. The island is currently home to around 3,000 people, including Navy sailors, family members and support staff, two people who have worked on the atoll told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. Diego Garcia boasts shops, restaurants, bars and pristine beaches, the people said.

Prior to the laying of the new subsea cable, the island base accessed the internet via satellites, which are slower and less reliable than cables, the two people said.

The CS Dependable’s clandestine underwater operation on Diego Garcia was never mentioned publicly by participants in the business deal that made it happen. Rather, they carefully obscured the U.S. military component within a larger private-sector cable project, according to four subsea cable industry sources with knowledge of the arrangement.

In 2020, SubCom announced that it had been commissioned by an Australian tech mogul to lay a $300 million commercial internet cable from Australia to the Sultanate of Oman on the Arabian Peninsula, a route that traverses the Indian Ocean.

That project, known as the Oman Australia Cable, was spearheaded by SUBCO, a Brisbane-based subsea cable investment company owned by Australian entrepreneur Bevan Slattery.

The industry was skeptical about the commercial viability of the route, given it would mostly serve a small pool of Australian telecom firms that already had access to multiple cables running through Southeast Asia to the Middle East, five industry sources told Reuters.

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The Secret Splice

SubCom announced in 2020 that it was building a commercial subsea internet cable from Australia to Oman. The $300 million project included a clandestine link to a U.S. Navy base on the remote Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, which was funded by the Pentagon.

Sources: TeleGeography; Natural Earth

What many of them didn’t know was that the Pentagon had paid for around a third of the entire cable on the condition that it include a splice connecting its commercial trunk to Diego Garcia, two of the people with knowledge of the project told Reuters.

The U.S. Pacific Fleet, in its statement to Reuters, said SUBCO’s Oman Australia Cable offered “a unique opportunity” to connect the remote island with an undersea fiber-optic internet cable.

The statement said the U.S. Pacific Fleet partnered with companies laying the Oman Australia Cable to extend a branch to Diego Garcia, but did not disclose how much it paid for the spur.

“This partnership has increased the digital resiliency and security of our communication infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific,” the statement said.

While the Navy had said nothing officially about the cable until now, sailors on Diego Garcia were tipped off last year. Captain Richard Payne, then-commander on Diego Garcia, mentioned the cable during a Feb. 9 guest appearance on the base’s local radio station, “99.1 The Eagle,” a recording of which was posted on the Navy radio station’s Facebook page.

Payne, who was fielding questions submitted by listeners, volunteered that an unusual vessel could be sighted off the western shore of Diego Garcia.

“We're going to have fiber optics here on the island very soon,” Payne told the program’s host, Alex Kerska or “DJ Special K,” during the segment in which he also addressed complaints about high beer prices on the atoll and called on island residents to attend a kickball tournament.

“Starting today (or) tomorrow, we have the cable-laying ship that is out there off the coast now. It’s a commercial company doing that … It’s a very interesting ship,” Payne continued, without naming the company or the ship.

Payne, who now works in the office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security, did not respond to a request for comment.

The ship Payne was referring to was the CS Dependable, according to the SubCom and Navy sources with knowledge of the operation.

Capt. Richard D. Payne, then-commanding officer of the U.S. Navy base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, salutes comrades on July 6, 2021. Payne mentioned the arrival of a cable-laying ship during a 2022 guest appearance on the base’s radio station. That vessel, which he didn’t name, was SubCom’s CS Dependable. U.S. Navy via Reuters

SubCom’s CS Reliance vessel laid the first half of the commercial cable from Perth, Australia, to the middle of the Indian Ocean. From there, the CS Dependable took over, running the splice to Diego Garcia and laying the rest of the main trunk up to Oman, the people said.

Reuters analyzed satellite images and ship tracking data on Eikon, the financial analysis platform owned by the London Stock Exchange Group. That information showed the CS Dependable operating around Diego Garcia in February and March of 2022, then sailing on to Oman.

The delicate operation was made possible by a decades-long friendship between three veterans of the subsea cable industry, according to two people with knowledge of the dealings.

a) SubCom CEO David Coughlan talks about undersea cable technology in a video posted to YouTube on July 15, 2021. He coordinated the laying of the secret cable to a U.S. Navy base on the remote island of Diego Garcia, according to Navy and SubCom sources. Pacific Telecommunications Council via YouTube/Screenshot

b) Helping Coughlan in that effort, sources said, was Catherine Creese, director of the U.S. Naval Seafloor Cable Protection Office, shown here speaking at an April 8, 2021, virtual forum about Asia’s evolving subsea cable networks. She previously worked with Coughlan at the company now known as SubCom. Center for Strategic and International Studies via YouTube/Screenshot

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Coordinating the Pentagon’s end was Catherine Creese, a former U.S. Coast Guard officer who is now Director of the U.S. Naval Seafloor Cable Protection Office, the unit that oversees the Navy’s subsea cables.

Prior to joining the Navy in 2006, Creese worked at SubCom for 11 years, a time when it was known as Tyco Telecommunications. There she worked closely alongside the man who is now SubCom’s CEO, David Coughlan, according to two former SubCom employees who worked with Coughlan and Creese.

Coughlan and Creese planned and executed the Diego Garcia operation, according to one current SubCom employee and one Navy staffer.

Creese and Coughlan did not respond to requests for comment. The U.S. Navy did not respond to questions about Creese’s involvement.

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‘Dreams come true’

Selling the cable to investors, meanwhile, was the purview of Slattery, the Australian entrepreneur, who has made a fortune building and selling private undersea cables. In a conservative industry, the businessman stands out as a gregarious and outspoken character who is willing to take on risky projects, according to three industry sources who have worked with Slattery.

Slattery did not respond to requests for comment.

SubCom’s Coughlan helped Slattery pull off his first major cable deal in the late 2000s, setting him on course to become one of Australia’s wealthiest tech moguls, according to two industry sources with knowledge of the matter.

That project, a SubCom-built cable running between Brisbane and Guam, a U.S. Pacific island territory that’s also home to a naval base, almost bankrupted Slattery, the businessman told the Australian Financial Review in a 2016 interview.

Thanks to sympathetic suppliers, Slattery got that cable, known as PIPE, over the line, according to the Financial Review article. Crucially, SubCom, the main supplier on the project, extended Slattery credit to get the cable finished, the two industry sources said.

Slattery sold the company that owned the PIPE cable for A$373 million ($248 million) in 2010, the first of a string of successful tech infrastructure bets. Slattery has a personal net worth of A$564 million ($375 million), according to a 2020 “Rich List” published by the Financial Review.

The entrepreneur pitched the Oman Australia Cable in public statements as an alternative to the traditional route between Australia and the Middle East that passes through Southeast Asia. The spur to Diego Garcia was never mentioned.

A blueprint for such a project already existed. Slattery’s cable was essentially a revival and rerouting of a 2017 plan to build a cable between Australia and the Republic of Djibouti on the Horn of Africa, with a secret link to Diego Garcia funded by the Pentagon, according to a person directly involved in that deal. Djibouti is the site of China’s first-ever overseas military base, which opened in 2017.

The earlier proposed cable – known as the Australia West Express – was never built because the U.S. company behind the project, GoTo Networks, couldn’t secure the private investment needed to cover the portion not funded by the Pentagon, the person said.

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SubCom’s cable ship tracked near remote U.S. Navy base

The CS Dependable spent weeks in the waters around Diego Garcia in February and March of 2022, ship tracking data shows. In this period, the ship’s crew laid a secret subsea fiber-optic internet cable to a U.S. Navy base on the atoll, according to SubCom and Navy sources.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

John Mariano, who was the CEO of the now-defunct GoTo Networks, declined to comment. The U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to a request for comment. An official from the president’s office in Djibouti declined to comment.

Cables are typically owned by a consortium of telecom and tech companies that spread the cost and risk. Occasionally, entrepreneurs or private equity firms build a cable on spec with the aim of selling bandwidth to carriers and tech companies before flipping the cable for a profit.

Slattery is a master of such deals, two people who worked with him told Reuters. He used his experience and contacts to attract enough investors to supplement the Pentagon funding to get the Oman Australia Cable built, the two people said.

The 10,000-kilometer cable was officially opened by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in October 2022. It includes a splice to the Cocos Islands, an Australian territory which comprises a cluster of tiny islands between Sri Lanka and Australia. Australia’s military has been seeking parliamentary approval for funds to upgrade an airfield there and make other improvements aimed at strengthening its maritime surveillance capabilities in the region.

Subsea cable entrepreneur Bevan Slattery (far right) and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (center) celebrate the 2022 completion of a fiber-optic cable stretching from Australia to Oman across the Indian Ocean. That commercial cable contained a secret branch to a remote U.S. Navy base. Via Twitter/Screenshot

Slattery on Nov. 19, 2022, tweeted a group photo that included himself and Albanese, both with broad grins, celebrating the cable and the team that made “dreams come true.”

Albanese’s office did not respond to a request for comment about the project, its funding or potential military uses. In an Oct. 22, 2022, tweet sent from his Twitter account, he lauded the cable’s speed, security and reliability, and boasted that it could stream “over 65 million Netflix shows simultaneously.”

The government of Oman did not respond to a request for comment.

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Levers of power

SubCom’s role in the project marked a return to its Cold War roots.

The company was founded in 1955, according to its website, the year the first subsea transatlantic telephone cable system was laid between Scotland and Newfoundland. That cable was deployed by AT&T’s submarine cable unit, which would eventually become SubCom.

The true origins of AT&T’s subsea cable business go back five years earlier, when the company was commissioned by the U.S. Navy to build a network of undersea surveillance cables to listen for Soviet submarines, according to three former employees with knowledge of the matter.

The project was known as the Sound Surveillance System, or “Project Caesar,” according to a declassified document about the program available on the U.S. Navy’s website. The document does not mention AT&T’s involvement.

Once the Navy project was complete, AT&T’s submarine cable project morphed into a commercial business, the former employees said.

AT&T did not respond to a request for comment.

In 1997, AT&T sold its cable-laying operation, including a fleet of ships, to Tyco International, a security company based in New Jersey. In 2018, Tyco sold the cable unit, by this time dubbed TE SubCom, for $325 million to Cerberus, the New York private equity firm.

SubCom doesn’t make public many details about its business. The company has more than 1,300 employees and an annual revenue of $344 million, according to data on Eikon.

Last year, SubCom signed a “master service agreement” with Google, one of the world’s biggest investors in subsea internet cables, according to two people with knowledge of the deal.

That contract, which the people said is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, could help Google build the world’s largest-ever private data network, connecting Cloud data centers around the world with a web of SubCom-manufactured undersea cables.

Google did not respond to a request for comment.

More undersea cables and data centers in the hands of U.S. companies like Google and SubCom is a win for Washington as it seeks to keep Chinese firms away from the internet hardware that will underpin global economic and military progress for decades to come, said Kellee Wicker, director of the Science and Technology Innovation Program at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

“Cables are an enormous lever of power,” Wicker said. “If you can’t control these networks directly, you want a company you can trust to control them.”

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News round-up, July 6, 2023

Quote of the day…

“President Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”

The Telegraph UK / Today

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Censorship and Freedom of Speech

Capatilist vs. Communist Theory on Speech and Press Freedoms

https://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/2007-08/communism-computing-china/censorship.html

Freedom of information, speech and the press is firmly rooted in the structures of modern western democratic thought.  With limited restrictions, every capitalist democracy has legal provisions protecting these rights.  Even the UN Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the general assembly in 1948 declares "Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers" (although as Article 19, it comes after the right to hold property, be married and hold a nationality, among others).  As such, western ethics heavily favor the nearly unfettered rights to speech, press and information.  Such rights might be tailored to protect state security from a Lockesian social contract perspective, but a Kantian categorical outlook surely provides for a society in which everyone can speak freely is better to one in which no one can speak freely. 

Communism, as a primarily economic system, is much quieter on the issue of individual human rights. Two conflicting positions on these freedoms arise with analysis of communist theory.  The first is an argument against individual freedoms.  In a communist society, the individual's best interests are indistinguishable from the society's best interest.  Thus, the idea of an individual freedom is incompatible with a communist ideology.  The only reason to hold individual speech and information rights would be to better the society, a condition which would likely be met only in certain instances rather than across time, making the default a lack of freedom.

On the other hand, the idea of perfect equality in communism argues for a right of expression and press.  Since each individual is equally important, each should have an equally valid point of view.  Indeed, Marx defended the right to a freedom of the press, arguing in 1842 that restrictions, like censorship were instituted by the bourgeois elite.  He claimed censorship is a tool of the powerful to oppress the powerless. 

Indeed, many implementations of communism favored a constitutional democracy, albeit usually with only one party.  Before and at the creation of many communist countries, a desire for freedom from the oppression of the proletariat by the bourgeois translated into strongly voiced support for individual freedoms for speech, dissent and information.  Chairman Mao, in encouraging his countrymen to prepare for WWII more than a decade before he came to power, proclaimed "[the people] should subject ... the party in power, to severe criticism, and press and impel it to give up its one-party, one-class dictatorship and act according to the opinions of the people....The second matter concerns freedom of speech, assembly and association for the people. Without such freedom, it will be impossible to carry out the democratic reconstruction of the political system."  In 1945, closer yet to his assumption of power, Mao proclaimed, "Two principles must be observed: (1) say all you know and say it without reserve; (2) Don't blame the speaker but take his words as a warning.  Unless the principle of 'Don't blame the speaker" is observed genuinely and not falsely, the result will not be 'Say all you know and say it without reserve."  More striking still is the fact that this latter quote is recorded in "Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-Tung," more commonly known as the Little Red Book, a veritable bible of Chinese communism considered infallible during Mao's lifetime. 

Thus, on the balance, it seems communist theory is compatible with freedoms of speech, information and protest, but it is far from a fundamental right such as it is under democracy and individual-centered ethics systems like that of Kant and Locke.  Freedom of information should only be granted when communist society as a whole is likely to benefit.  In this light, it makes much more sense that communist leaders, while still a persecuted opposition philosophy, would strongly support speech rights and later reject them when communism becomes the ruling system.  At that point, access to oppositional speech and information is no longer beneficial to the communist state, and thus no longer needed in communist philosophy. 

China in Practice

Modern day China, more than almost any other country in the world, severely restricts its citizens freedom of speech and expression. Oddly enough, Article 35 of the current Chinese constitution, written in 1982, stipulates "Citizens of the PRC have freedom of speech, publication, assembly, association, procession and demonstration."  Up to the advent of the internet, the Chinese government had been able to successfully curtail this freedom in nearly all its physical manifestations. China has a tightly controlled traditional media, China forces all published information to be from official sources and to be vetted through the state.  Ironically, the communist state founded on the backbone of Marx's words stipulates a minimum personal income of $35,000 dollars to be able to publish print media, an income level which could easily be considered bourgeois by Chinese standards.  China also has strong restrictions against assembly and worship, demonstrated over the last few days with a crackdown on Tibetan protesters.  Many assumed the government's ability to crack down on dissent would be destroyed by the increased prominence of a dynamic and nearly infinite internet space.  However, China has adapted it's censorship policies to the internet, and by many standards managed to stay ahead of the curve in restricting free speech in the digital realm.

Internet use in China is blossoming. As of 2004 over 94 million users were online and in 2007 the China Internet Network Information Center, considered the premier source for measuring Chinese internet use, pegged the number of Chinese users at 210 million.  This number will only grow in the foreseeable future, with the booming mobile market, more and more a popular portal to the internet, estimated to hit 600 million by 2010.

China Presents: The Internet (This realm has been modified from it's original version.  It has been formatted to fit The Party's view of the world.)

This internet usage boom presents a variety of new challenges to a government adept at censoring traditional media types.  The internet is much more vast than the physical realm controlled by China.  It is not susceptible to the traditional local control structure relying on dedicated neighborhood party leaders to enforce edicts from the centralized government.  Furthermore, the barriers to traditional information distribution of geography, money, and access to printing machinery, are no longer an issue in a digital realm where a cell phone or a few cents can buy time on the internet and allow anyone to blog their opinions.

China has responded with a vast centralized censorship program. One study by a group at Harvard in 2002, "found blocking of almost every kind of content.  If it exists, China blocks at least some of it."  The blocking has traditionally been centered on political and opinion based sites.  Some of the most likely to be blocked are related to independence movements in Taiwan and Tibet, protest groups like the Falun-Gong, political parties opposed to the state, and sites on democracy.  For the majority of Chinese web-users, these controversial topic-specific sites are not part of their daily internet routine, which focuses mostly on sports, entertainment and gaming sites.  These users may have only the vaguest notion of the filtering being conducted by the government. Recently, however, the Great Firewall of China has evoked increased backblash as it has begun to block more popular websites like the photo-sharing site, Flickr and selected MySpace pages .

China's filtering and censorship program is regarded as the most sophisticated and effective in the world.  It includes some 30,000 censors as well as technology, often provided by foreign companies like google and yahoo who are required to censor their results or be censored themselves. The filtering effort is in conjunction with a strict criminal prosecution system working with laws that forbid the publication of anything "(i) Denying the guiding status of Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, or Deng Xiaoping Theory; (ii) Violating the Party line, guiding principles, or policies; (vii) Anything else that violates Party propaganda discipline or violates national publishing administration regulations."   These laws are enforced with the aid of laws requiring all ISPs and internet cafes to record and store information about all users and their internet use.

Conclusions

It appears that the modern Chinese government has no interest in conforming to the platitudes of free speech, press and dissent espoused by Marx, Mao and it's own active constitution.  While dissent may seem compatible within the framework of theoretical communism, it appears to be at odds with the communism practiced in China.  In revoking its founders statements, the government's position may seem to oppose the spirit of communism; yet, the choices make perfect sense when considered in the framework of making decisions not on a priori ethical assumptions like democracies aspire to do, but rather on the basis of what is best for the communist society at the moment.  While the world wide web may yet be too much for the well-oiled Chinese censorship machine to handle, the government has done remarkably well so far in providing a slimmer, more China-friendly version of the internet to its citizens.

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Most read…

Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light

Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project

The Washington Post By Kate Selig, July 5, 2023 

Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China

The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.

NYT By *Alan Rappeport, July 6, 2023

Major banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study

The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.

REUTERS by Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett, Editing by Germán & Co,  July 6, 2023

NOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia

State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.

Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge, editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023

Inside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’

Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech

The Telegraph By James Titcomb, 6 July 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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This photo from 2016 shows offshore wind turbines near Block Island, R.I. The Biden administration on Tuesday approved a large offshore wind energy project to be built off the coast of New Jersey, which faces local opposition. (Michael Dwyer/AP)

Largest-ever wind project off U.S. shores just got a green light

Ocean Wind 1, which could power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes, is the Biden administration’s third approval of a large offshore wind energy project

The Washington Post By Kate Selig, July 5, 2023 

The Biden administration gave a green light Wednesday to the largest-ever offshore wind project the U.S. has yet approved, paving the way for dozens of turbines that could eventually power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes.

The approval of Ocean Wind 1′s plan for construction and operations is a milestone for the project, which has faced fierce opposition from Republican lawmakers and residents in New Jersey. The project would be the state’s first utility-scale offshore wind farm and could power as many as half a million homes with clean energy, according to Orsted, the Danish energy company developing the project.

“The announcement of Ocean Wind 1’s Record of Decision today represents a pivotal inflection point not just for Orsted, but for New Jersey’s nation-leading offshore wind industry as a whole,” said New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a proponent of offshore wind energy, in a release.

Construction is already underway on the other two large offshore wind projects approved by the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM).

The Vineyard Wind 1 project off Massachusetts and the South Fork Wind project off Rhode Island and New York are expected to generate about 800 megawatts and 130 megawatts of energy, respectively.

Ocean Wind 1 is the largest project of the three. Orsted projects that Ocean Wind 1 will deliver 1,100 megawatts of energy from up to 98 General Electric Haliade-X wind turbines placed approximately 15 miles off the coast of southern New Jersey. Orsted says the project could power approximately 500,000 homes, though BOEM has a slightly lower projection of roughly 380,000.

“The [approval] represents a critical step toward harnessing clean, renewable offshore wind to power New Jersey’s homes and businesses,” said Allison McLeod, the senior policy director of New Jersey League of Conservation Voters.

The Department of the Interior described the approval as a step forward for the offshore wind industry and as constituting “significant progress” toward the Biden administration’s goal of developing 30 gigawatts of offshore wind energy by 2030 in a release.

“The Biden-Harris administration has worked to jump-start the offshore wind industry across the country — and today’s approval for the Ocean Wind 1 project is another milestone in our efforts to create good-paying union jobs while combating climate change and powering our nation,” said Interior Secretary Deb Haaland in the release.

But to reach the administration’s climate goals, proposed wind projects up and down the East Coast will need to overcome steep obstacles, including opposition from Republicans and local residents. The resistance is especially fierce in Cape May County, where a number of coastal communities will be able to spot the wind turbines from the shore.

Residents have joined groups such as Protect Our Coast NJ to rally against the project on the basis of concerns ranging from the deaths of whales to the impact that the turbines could have on local tourism. These activist groups have taken legal action against the wind project.

The county has also enlisted lawyers in its effort to halt the offshore wind development. In June, the county voted to add an additional two law firms to its legal team to challenge federal regulatory decisions and the permits that the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection issued to Orsted.

Former New Jersey Superior Court Judge Michael J. Donohue, who is serving as special counsel to the county, said Cape May County is reviewing BOEM’s decision and “will determine what avenues for legal challenges, if any, exist to pursue.”

In addition to legal challenges, Ocean Wind 1 has suffered from rising interest rates and inflation. The New Jersey legislature narrowly approved a bill last week to let Orsted keep federal tax credits in an effort to address what lawmakers described as lingering economic harms from inflation and the covid-19 pandemic.

Despite these setbacks, Orsted said in a release that with the BOEM approval, the project remains on track to begin onshore construction this fall and ramp up offshore construction in 2024. The project is expected to begin commercial operations in 2025, according to the company.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Image by Germán & Co

Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China

The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.

NYT By *Alan Rappeport, July 6, 2023

*Alan Rappeport covers the Treasury Department and is traveling with Secretary Janet L. Yellen to China this week.

Since then, Ms. Yellen has emerged as a voice of moderation in the Biden administration, embracing the mantle of economic pragmatism as the world economy copes with inflation and sluggish growth. The Treasury secretary has expressed objections to China’s record on human rights, called for diversifying American supply chains and acknowledged that protecting national security is paramount.

But she has also been the administration’s most prominent proponent of maintaining economic ties with China, arguing against tariffs, urging caution on new restrictions on investment in China and, most recently, warning that decoupling the two economies would be “disastrous.”

Set to arrive in Beijing on Thursday for a four-day visit, Ms. Yellen will be navigating those conflicting interests in real time. The trip, her first as Treasury secretary, represents Ms. Yellen’s most challenging test of economic diplomacy to date as she attempts to ease years of festering distrust between the United States and China.

For Ms. Yellen, the challenge will be to convince her Chinese counterparts that the bevy of U.S. measures blocking access to sensitive technology such as semiconductors in the name of national security are not intended to inflict harm on the Chinese economy. That will not be easy, as both countries continue to erect new barriers to trade and investment.

The Biden administration is preparing several new restrictions on U.S. technology trade with China, including potential limits on advanced chips and U.S. investment in the country. Forthcoming rules also appear likely to clamp down on Chinese companies’ access to U.S. cloud computing services, according to people familiar with the matter, in an effort to close a loophole in earlier restrictions on China’s access to advanced chips used for artificial intelligence.

This week Beijing retaliated against the Biden administration’s limits on semiconductors, announcing it would restrict the export of certain critical minerals used in the production of some chips.

On Monday, ahead of her trip, Ms. Yellen met in Washington with Xie Feng, China’s ambassador to the United States, and laid out “issues of concern” in what the Treasury Department described as a frank conversation. According to a summary of the conversation released by the Chinese Embassy, Mr. Xie explained China’s objections to America’s trade practices and urged the United States to take steps to resolve them.

In her meetings in Beijing, Ms. Yellen is expected to make the case that the Biden administration’s actions to make the U.S. economy less reliant on China and to entice more production of critical materials inside the United States are narrowly focused measures that are not meant to instigate a broader economic war. China continues to hold nearly $1 trillion of U.S. debt and is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.

“I think she is going to go as the sober voice of reason to say this is not about containment,” said Tim Adams, the president of the Institute of International Finance and a former Treasury under secretary for international affairs. “It’s really about setting the tone of cooperation and showing that the U.S. remains interested in being engaged with China on trade and investment.”

Through the past several decades, the Treasury has consistently been the American government agency that has tried hardest to maintain friendly relations with China. Wall Street firms, a key constituency for the department, tried through the 1990s to win access to the Chinese market through China’s negotiations to join the World Trade Organization. After China joined the W.T.O. in 2002, Wall Street firms and the Treasury Department pushed for China to move faster in actually opening its markets.

Beijing finally agreed in November 2017 to allow foreign investors to hold much larger stakes in insurance, banking and securities businesses, as part of a series of concessions made in an unsuccessful attempt to head off a trade war with the Trump administration.

While it is her first trip to Beijing as Treasury secretary, Ms. Yellen is no stranger to China. In her role as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, she had regular contact with Chinese officials, and as chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018 she would meet with officials from China’s central bank at international gatherings.

The Zhoushan port in the Chinese province of Zhejiang. China is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.Credit...Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Ms. Yellen’s credentials as an academic economist have made her a welcome emissary in Beijing.

“They like her very much because she looks at the world in economic terms, and they’re extremely comfortable with that,” said Craig Allen, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council.

Michael Pillsbury, a senior fellow for China strategy at the Heritage Foundation, said that Chinese officials viewed Ms. Yellen as a voice of reason and that they hoped she would be able to make the case to others in the Biden administration that the United States should back away from new investment restrictions and roll back tariffs.

“They want Janet to help,” said Mr. Pillsbury, who was a top adviser on China in the Trump administration. “They see her as a friend of China.”

Ms. Yellen does not direct trade policy, but she has been critical of the tariffs that President Donald J. Trump imposed on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports.

“Tariffs are taxes on consumers,” Ms. Yellen told The New York Times in 2021. “In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, and the type of deal that the prior administration negotiated really didn’t address in many ways the fundamental problems we have with China.”

Those tariffs remain under review by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, and Ms. Yellen has acknowledged that they are unlikely to be rolled back anytime soon.

Ms. Yellen’s ability to forge deeper ties with Beijing could be complicated by the current political moment.

Concerns about China have grown after a spy balloon traversed the United States before being shot down over the Atlantic Ocean. The upcoming presidential election is also likely to escalate anti-China rhetoric as candidates look to paint themselves as tough on China, often a winning campaign message. And Republicans have been expressing criticism of greater U.S. outreach to China.

Ms. Yellen’s visit follows a trip last month by Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state. John F. Kerry, the special climate envoy, is expected to make a trip to Beijing soon.

Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican who leads the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, accused the Biden administration of slow-walking export restrictions targeting Huawei, the Chinese telecom giant, and sanctions against Chinese officials responsible for human rights violations against Uyghurs in Xinjiang. He argued that China’s behavior had gotten worse while the Biden administration pursued “zombie engagement” with the Chinese Communist Party.

“After Secretary Blinken left Beijing with little to show for his trip, doubling down by sending additional cabinet-level officials like Secretary Yellen would only perpetuate this vicious cycle,” Mr. Gallagher said.

With Republican presidential candidates like Nikki Haley warning that China is “preparing for war” with the United States, there is additional urgency for Ms. Yellen to find ways to keep the lines of communication with her Chinese counterparts open even if her trip does not yield any major breakthroughs.

“The Chinese are very aware of the U.S. election cycle, and in my mind this is partly why they have been willing to be a little more open,” said Eswar Prasad, a former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “Both Secretary Yellen and the Chinese would like to get back to a place where they see at least parts of the economic relationship as a positive-sum game, rather than a zero-sum game.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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An excavator works near Hungary's Paks nuclear power plant to prepare the new Paks II construction site in Paks, Hungary, May 9, 2023. REUTERS/Marton Monus/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Major banks yet to match EU with nuclear green label - study

The European Union (EU) has recently included nuclear power plants in its roster of environmentally sustainable investments. However, there is dissent among certain member countries regarding this decision. A study recommends that banks revise their green bond regulations to align with the EU's stance on this matter.

REUTERS by Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett, Editing by Germán & Co,  July 6, 2023

LONDON/BRUSSELS, July 6 (Reuters) - None of the world's 30 major banks have explicitly included nuclear energy in their criteria for issuing green or sustainability-linked bonds, researchers said on Thursday, despite an EU decision last year to label it as sustainable.

The European Union decided last year to include nuclear power plants in its list of investments that can be labelled and marketed as green. The move aimed to guide investors towards climate-friendly technologies, but split EU countries who disagree on atomic energy's green credentials.

So far, banks have not followed the EU's lead in their own green bond rules, according to an analysis by Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. The study looked at the 30 banks deemed systemically important by the Financial Stability Board.

Of those banks, 17 had explicitly excluded nuclear energy from their green financing frameworks, while 12 had frameworks that were silent on nuclear, and one had no such framework, the researchers said.

The EU's own green bond standard includes nuclear power. But exclusion from banks' frameworks could restrict the sector's access to a fast-growing pool of sustainable capital.

Green bond issuance hit a record high globally in both the first and second quarters of 2023, Refinitiv data showed.

Research co-author Matt Bowen said he was surprised nuclear energy was so often excluded from banks' green finance guidelines, given its potential contribution to fighting climate change.

Nuclear energy does not produce climate-damaging CO2 emissions in the same way that fossil fuels such as oil and gas do, but it does produce radioactive waste.

Countries including Germany and Austria oppose the energy source and lobbied against the EU's decision to label it as green, citing concerns including waste disposal, the potential risk of accidents and long delays to recent nuclear projects.

The International Energy Agency has said global nuclear capacity would need to roughly double by 2050, if the world is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko walks before a press conference in Minsk, Belarus July 6, 2023. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/ Editing by Germán & Co

NOW / Belarus leader Lukashenko says Prigozhin is back in Russia

State television heavily criticized Prigozhin yesterday, vehemently stating that the investigation is ongoing.

Reuters By Guy Faulconbridge, editing by Germán & Co, July 6, 2023

MINSK, July 6 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who last month brokered a deal to end an armed mutiny in Russia, said on Thursday that Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was no longer in Belarus.

Lukashenko said on June 27 that Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group whose fighters briefly captured a southern Russian city and marched towards Moscow, had arrived in Belarus as part of the June 24 deal that defused the crisis.

But Lukashenko told reporters on Thursday: "As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg (Russia's second biggest city). He is not on the territory of Belarus."

A business jet linked to Prigozhin left St Petersburg for Moscow on Wednesday and was heading for southern Russia on Thursday, according to flight tracking data, but it was not clear if the mercenary chief was on board.

Lukashenko said an offer for Wagner to station some of its fighters in Belarus - a prospect that has alarmed neighbouring NATO countries - still stands.

He said he did not see it as a risk to Belarus and did not believe Wagner fighters would ever take up arms against his country.

Lukashenko has spoken proudly of his role in ending the armed mutiny, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said could have plunged Russia into civil war. Last week Lukashenko said he had persuaded Putin not to "wipe out" Prigozhin.

But much remains unclear about the terms of the deal Lukashenko brokered, and whether it is being implemented as agreed.

Russian state TV on Wednesday launched a fierce attack on Prigozhin and said an investigation into what had happened was still being vigorously pursued.

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Source: The Telegraph UK Editing by Germán & Co

Inside the campaign branded the ‘largest attack against free speech in US history’

Campaigners argue the White House overstepped its power and limited free speech

The Telegraph By James Titcomb, 6 July 2023 

As the Delta variant spread across the US in July 2021, Clarke Humphrey, an official at the White House’s Covid-19 response team, emailed two Facebook executives asking them to take down an Instagram account impersonating Anthony Fauci.

“Hi there – any way we can get this pulled down? It is not actually one of ours,” Humphrey wrote. Less than a minute later, Facebook responded: “Yep, on it!”

The account imitating the then chief medical adviser was duly deleted – far quicker than if it had been reported through Instagram’s standard channels.

The emails are among those in a cache of more than 15,000 gathered by state prosecutors in a lawsuit against the US officials including Joe Biden, seeking to shut down contact between the White House and social media giants.

Last year, Louisiana and Missouri’s attorneys general, alongside a number of prominent anti-vaccine campaigners, sued the White House, seeking a ruling that the communication violated US free speech laws.

On Tuesday – the Independence Day timing may or may not have been a coincidence – a judge appointed by Donald Trump issued a stunning injunction forbidding a lengthy list of White House officials from making contact with social media companies to report misinformation.

The order bars individuals including Xavier Becerra, the US health secretary, Vivek Murthy, the surgeon general, and Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House Press Secretary, among dozens more officials, from “urging, encouraging , pressuring, or inducing in any manner the removal, deletion, suppression, or reduction of content containing protected free speech posted on social-media platforms”.

In a 155-page ruling, the judge, Terry Doughty, said the case “arguably involves the most massive attack against free speech in United States’ history” and compared the administration’s actions to the “Ministry of Truth”, the repressive censorship authority in George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four.

The Biden administration is likely to appeal the injunction – which is not final – and said it did not order posts to be taken down. However, it is a major victory for campaigners who have argued that democratic governments overstepped their power during the pandemic, including restrictions on free speech.

The trove of emails, obtained through legal requests, contain no single smoking gun. Instead they illustrate ongoing pressure from officials at various US government agencies to pressure YouTube, Twitter, and – in particular – Facebook parent Meta to act faster and more aggressively on anti-vaccine posts, conspiracy theories and the lab-leak theory.

Sir Nick Clegg, the former deputy prime minister and Meta’s president of global affairs, was intimately involved in the White House discussions, sending regular reports on how the company was tackling misinformation and pushing back on public pronouncements from officials criticising Meta.

In one phone call between Murthy and Sir Nick, the surgeon general asked Meta to do more to tackle misinformation. In another email in 2021, Andy Slavitt, the White House’s senior Covid-19 adviser, emailed Sir Nick complaining about a post from the Fox News host Tucker Carlson expressing scepticism about vaccines.

“Number one on Facebook. Sigh,” Slavitt wrote, according to legal documents. Sir Nick responded saying the post did not break Facebook’s rules, but was being demoted so that fewer people would see it in news feeds. Rob Flaherty, the White House’s director of digital strategy, responded saying: “There’s 40,000 shares on the video. . . . How effective is that?”

He added: “Not for nothing but last time we did this dance, it ended in an insurrection,” referring to the January 6 attack on the Capitol. In other emails, Sir Nick apologised for not responding to posts that broke Facebook’s rules more quickly, the documents say.

After Biden made an offhand remark accusing Facebook of “killing people” by allowing posts criticising the vaccine, Sir Nick texted Murthy, the surgeon general. “It’s not great to be accused of killing people,” he wrote. Nonetheless, at a subsequent meeting, Facebook agreed to “do more” to tackle Covid misinformation.

Despite the occasional resistance from Facebook, emails published as part of the lawsuit often showed White House officials berating social media companies, who were deferential in response. “We think there is considerably more we can do in ‘partnership’ with you and your team to drive behaviour,” one executive wrote.

Officials were also active in encouraging Twitter and YouTube to remove content, according to the order. In the early weeks of the administration, Flaherty emailed Twitter asking them to remove a parody account linked to Biden’s granddaughter, writing: “Please remove this account immediately.” It was gone 45 minutes later.

Humphrey asked the company to remove an anti-vaccine tweet by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Later that year, Christian Tom, a deputy director of digital strategy, asked Twitter to remove a digitally altered video of Jill Biden that made it appear as if the First Lady was swearing at children. Twitter initially said it did not violate its policies, but later removed the clip.

YouTube, meanwhile, was asked why it was “funnelling people into hesitancy” over the vaccine. The companies did not comment.

The White House denied that it had forced social media companies to take material offline.

“Our consistent view remains that social media platforms have a critical responsibility to take account of the effects their platforms are having on the American people, but make independent choices about the information they present,” it said.

But as the lawsuit argues, the conversations were not taking place in a vacuum. They came as debates raged across Congress about whether to remove “Section 230” protections enjoyed by social media companies that limit responsibility for what their users post, and as the US government pursued lawsuits against Facebook and Google seeking to break the companies up.

Whatever the case’s ultimate outcome, its plaintiffs may believe they have already been successful. A “Disinformation Governance Board” set up last April, which prompted the lawsuit, was disbanded in August.

After reporting by The Telegraph, the UK Government is under pressure to shut down its own Counter Disinformation Unit, which passed information to social media companies to encourage them to take down posts. And Elon Musk, a champion of conservative voices, now owns Twitter.

In his conclusion, the judge quoted the late Democrat president Harry Truman: “Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one place to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”

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News round-up, July 5, 2023

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By the way of…

The meeting between Modi, Putin, and Xi on Thursday could end a long-standing narrative titled:

"I Love You, But I am Not In Love With You..."

Or, to the brilliant Milan Kundera thinking’s:

“The true essence of emotions lies not in yearning for a passionate tryst but rather in yearning for a peaceful slumber with a cherished companion...

Russia, China, and Indian leaders will hold a virtual Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting to discuss their priorities and objectives.

For Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, it is imperative to demonstrate his authority in response to the uprising of the Wagner mercenary group and to secure international support for his ill-fated and unsuccessful military intervention in Ukraine. Putin needs the support of his fellow leaders; however, he only received —superficial displays of affection— during the previous convention. A sense of caution has accompanied China's support in bolstering Putin's position.

Consequently, Xi has already encountered strained relations with his European counterparts due to their divergent positions on issues related to Russia. In stark contrast, Xi Jinping expressed his disapproval of the United States and called for an end to hegemonic practices.

Finally, Narendra Modi, the —arising start— Prime Minister of India, will seize the opportunity to highlight India's growing influence and indirectly convey disapproval towards Pakistan. Given the strategic considerations and the imperative to counterbalance China's influence, it is likely that India will continue to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) actively.

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Concerns Surrounding the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant Today

Concerns have arisen regarding the current state of the Zaporiyia Nuclear Power Plant, located close to the Chernobyl disaster site. These concerns stem from deliberately damaging a vital dike that supplies water to cool down the reactor.

In her latest work, "The Ridiculous Idea of Never Seeing You Again," Rosa Montero, born on January 3, 1951, in Cuatro Caminos, the acclaimed Spanish journalist and contemporary fiction author, takes us on a profound journey that intertwines the life of Marie Curie, was born on November 7, 1867, in Warsaw, Congress Kingdom of Poland, Russian Empire and passed away on July 4, 1934, near Sallanches, France. By using the biography of the Nobel Prize, Marie Curie as a narrative thread, Montero skillfully invites us to reflect on the challenges of our time. Montero's book is challenging to categorize and opens with a striking sentence: "As I have not had children, the most important thing that has happened in my life is my death." This diary-like narrative explores the life and contributions of Marie Curie, a Polish chemist and physicist who later became a French citizen. Thanks to Curie and her husband, Pierre, we can now combat cancer, but “Curie's explanations about the dangers of radiation are unparalleled. It is crucial to remember that exposure to radium radiation can destroy malignant tissue, making it an effective treatment for halting the growth of cancerous tumors. Radium is also used as a source of neutrons in scientific experiments and in the production of radon for cancer treatment and other medical procedures. Polonium, on the other hand,  is utilized in devices designed for static charge removal, special brushes used to eliminate dust that has accumulated on photographic film, and as heat sources for artificial satellites or space probes. Unfortunately, not all applications of these elements are positive, as their high radioactivity also poses a significant potential for harm. For example, when polonium is mixed with beryllium (a common element used for alloy hardening), it can cause a rapid implosion that triggers a chain reaction at the atomic level with other elements. As you may have guessed, this makes it an essential component of the atomic bomb.

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Most read…

Judge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies

Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment

WSJ By Jacob Gershman, July 4, 2023 

Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal

The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.

The Washington Post By Robyn Dixon, July 5, 2023

European Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.

Le Monde By Virginie Malingre, yesterday (Paris)

Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong

Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.

Reuters By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Shadia Nasralla, Editing by Germán & co, July 5, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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The case tests the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on sites like Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: MATT CARDY

Judge Orders Biden Officials to Limit Contact With Social-Media Companies

Ruling says Biden administration policing of social media likely violated First Amendment

WSJ By Jacob Gershman, July 4, 2023 

A federal judge issued a broad preliminary injunction limiting the federal government from communicating with social-media companies about online content, ruling that Biden administration officials’ policing of social-media posts likely violated the First Amendment.

In a 155-page ruling issued Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty of Louisiana barred White House officials and multiple federal agencies from contacting social-media companies with the purpose of suppressing political views and other speech normally protected from government censorship.

The judge’s injunction came in a lawsuit led by the Republican attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana who alleged that the Biden administration fostered a sprawling “federal censorship enterprise” in its effort to stamp out what it viewed as rampant disinformation circulating on social media.

The government, the lawsuit claimed, pressured social-media platforms to scrub away disfavored views about Covid-19 health policies, the origins of the pandemic, the Hunter Biden laptop story, election security and other divisive topics.

A spokesman for the Justice Department declined to comment on the ruling. In a brief previously filed with the court, the department denied the plaintiffs’ allegations and said that the federal government took necessary and responsible actions to deal with a pandemic and foreign attempts at election interference.

The case is among the most potentially consequential First Amendment battles pending in the courts, testing the limits on government scrutiny of social-media content on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and other major platforms.

Never before has a federal judge set such sweeping limits on how the federal government may communicate with online platforms, according to lawyers involved in the case.

Some legal scholars have been skeptical that the government can be held responsible for content-moderation decisions ultimately made by private companies or that courts could intervene without chilling legitimate government speech about controversial matters of public interest.

The Justice Department is likely to appeal the injunction.

The judge’s Independence Day order is likely to intensify conservative criticisms about internet censorship and the debate over the government’s role in encouraging platforms to remove content that it considers to be misinformation, malicious content or harmful to public health.

“[T]he evidence produced thus far depicts an almost dystopian scenario,” wrote Doughty, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, in his ruling. “During the COVID-19 pandemic, a period perhaps best characterized by widespread doubt and uncertainty, the United States Government seems to have assumed a role similar to an Orwellian ‘Ministry of Truth.’”

The judge said the plaintiffs “have presented substantial evidence in support of their claims that they were the victims of a far-reaching and widespread censorship campaign” that he said almost exclusively targeted conservative views.

Missouri v. Biden, as the case is called, is among dozens of so-called censorship-by-proxy lawsuits challenging account suspensions, content removals and other suppression of social-media posts on First Amendment grounds.

The plaintiffs have argued that White House and other government officials bullied social-media companies into suppressing views disliked by the administration—including criticism of mask mandates and objections to Covid-19 vaccination for children—with veiled threats of new regulatory liabilities and antitrust enforcement.

Other courts have rejected similar claims, including in a lawsuit Trump brought against Twitter when it banned him after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, reinstated Trump, but after a federal court threw out Trump’s lawsuit due to in part an absence of evidence that Twitter had banned him at the government’s behest.

Courts have thrown out other lawsuits by censored medical activists, independent journalists and conservative commentators for failing to show that the social-media companies were doing the government’s bidding.

The Missouri v. Biden lawsuit has cast a wider net than other cases, with the states asserting an interest in protecting the speech rights of their citizens.

Doughty also permitted the plaintiffs at an unusually early stage in the case to gather additional evidence, such as email communications between White House officials and social-media companies, and to depose high-ranking government officials including Dr. Anthony Fauci, former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The judge referred to numerous email exchanges between White House officials and platform executives. In one email to Google employees from April 2021, the White House’s then-director of digital strategy, Rob Flaherty, charged that YouTube was “funneling” people into vaccine hesitancy. “This is a concern that is shared at the highest (and I mean highest) levels of the WH,” he wrote.

The Missouri v. Biden lawsuit alleges the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the State Department’s Global Engagement Center and the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency colluded with social-media platforms “in hundreds of meetings about misinformation” and systematically flagged “huge quantities of First Amendment-protected speech to platforms for censorship.”

Other plaintiffs in the suit include epidemiologists who are authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, an October 2020 open letter critical of Covid-19 government lockdown policies and school closures. They allege that Fauci helped lead a campaign to discredit the declaration and suppress it on social media.

“What a way to celebrate Independence Day,” Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey tweeted in response to Tuesday’s ruling. In an earlier interview, Bailey described the case as the “most important First Amendment lawsuit in a generation.”

The Justice Department, representing the government defendants, filed a brief nearly 300 pages long denying the allegations, including that any of the content moderation decisions at issue were the result of government pressure.

“The record in this case shows that the Federal Government promoted necessary and responsible actions to protect public health, safety, and security when confronted by a deadly pandemic and hostile foreign assaults on critical election infrastructure,” the department said.

The department also warned that the proposed injunction sought by the plaintiffs “would significantly hinder the Federal Government’s ability to combat foreign malign influence campaigns, prosecute crimes, protect the national security, and provide accurate information to the public on matters of grave public concern such as healthcare and election integrity.”

Doughty wrote that his order isn’t a blanket ban on government communication with social media. He said agencies could inform platforms about postings involving criminal activity, national security and public-safety threats or content intending to mislead voters about voting requirements and procedures.

Nothing in his order, he wrote, prevents federal agencies from ”exercising permissible public government speech promoting government policies or views on matters of public concern.”

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Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / Editing by Germán & Co

Wagner rebellion raises doubts about stability of Russia’s nuclear arsenal

The current situation in Russia has generated apprehension and unease among officials in Western countries. There is a legitimate concern that whoever assumes control over Russia's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction could pose a significant threat to global security.

The Washington Post By Robyn Dixon, July 5, 2023

The rebellion in Russia by Wagner mercenaries confronted Western officials with one of their gravest fears: the possibility of political chaos and instability in the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.

Anxiety over who might gain control of Russia’s weapons of mass destruction has long tempered Western hopes that President Vladimir Putin might be ousted from power. But months of nuclear posturing by Putin and other senior Russian officials, and a new debate among Moscow analysts on using a nuclear weapon on a NATO country, have raised doubts about whether Putin really provides the stability necessary to avoid an atomic Armageddon — or if he is the risk they should fear most.

Russian officials have played on the West’s nuclear fears throughout the war in an effort to undermine Western support for Ukraine and to slow weapons deliveries, a tactic that seems to have worked.

And in recent weeks the drumbeat has intensified, with some well-connected Russian strategic analysts and think tank experts openly proclaiming the “necessity” for Moscow to carry out a preemptive tactical nuclear strike on a NATO country, like Poland — to avoid defeat in the war on Ukraine and to revive Western terror of Russia’s nuclear might.

Since the Wagner rebellion, Sergei Karaganov, a former Kremlin adviser and influential Russian political scientist, has doubled down on calls for Moscow to do so. In an earlier article last month headlined, “A Difficult but Necessary Decision,” Karaganov argued the risk of a retaliatory nuclear strike on Russia, and nuclear Armageddon, “can be reduced to an absolute minimum.”

No sane American president would put the United States at risk by “sacrificing conditional Boston for conditional Poznań,” he wrote, referring to a city in Poland.

Hawkish Moscow-based military analyst, Dmitry Trenin, supported Karaganov, arguing that “an unambiguous — and no longer verbal — signal should be sent” to Washington.

“The possibility of using nuclear weapons in the current conflict should not be hidden,” he wrote in an essay, calling for the revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which limits the use of nuclear weapons to cases where Russia’s existence is threatened. Both essays were published by influential Russian foreign policy think tank, the Foreign Policy Research Foundation.

Trenin lamented that Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus — which Putin says will be completed by year end — had caused no visible alarm in Western capitals.

Karaganov’s essays have a messianic tone that reflect Putin’s zealous view of his place in history, solving what Moscow likes to call “the Ukraine problem,” a reference to an independent, democratic nation choosing a pro-Europe path on Russian borders.

He argues nuclear weapons were invented by God to revive mankind’s fear of Armageddon, insisting, “That fear needs to be revived.” He sees Russia as “chosen by history” to destroy the “Western yoke,” and “finally free the world.”

Many Russian nuclear arms experts gasped in horror at the calls from Karaganov and Trenin. One, Ivan Timofeev, called it “extremely dangerous.”

Three experts from the Center for International Security writing in Kommersant newspaper, Alexei Arbatov, Konstantin Bogdanov and Dmitry Stefanovich, called the idea that Washington would not strike back, “highly doubtful and likely erroneous.”

Then came the specter of civil war, with Wagner mercenaries rolling in a convoy toward Moscow in the most serious political chaos since 1993 when President Boris Yeltsin ordered tanks to fire on the country’s parliament to squash a rebellion by lawmakers.

After mutiny, Kremlin looks to unwind holdings tied to Wagner mercenary boss

As the Wagner rebellion unfolded earlier this month, United States officials contacted Moscow to assure Putin that Prigozhin’s rebellion was an internal Russian matter, according to National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. That reassurance highlighted the worry among Western leaders that Putin, sensing a Western plot or fearing defeat, could take radical action.

The rebellion is over, but any drastic new shocks in the war could trigger instability in Russia. A major new defeat in the war could topple Putin, said Anatol Lieven, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, or it could see him escalate and resort to a tactical nuclear weapon.

If Putin faced the loss of occupied Crimea, “the chances of escalation would be extraordinarily high because he would believe it was necessary to save Crimea, but it would also be necessary to save his regime at that point,” Lieven said.

Analysts predict a major internal crackdown in Russia, to prevent any similar rebellion by any armed rogue group in future.

After seizing a military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, Wagner fighters moved north to the city of Voronezh raising alarm about the Voronezh-45 nuclear weapons storage facility located about 130 miles further east. But even if Wagner had targeted the weapons — and there is no evidence it did — the mercenaries would not have been able to use them, analysts said.

“Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia's nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it's virtually impossible,” tweeted Pavel Podvig, nuclear arms expert at the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research, after a blue-checked Twitter conspiracy theorist spread disinformation to more than 250,000 Twitter followers that Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin had “got the nukes.”

At last month’s St. Petersburg economic forum, Putin said nuclear weapons would protect Russian security “in the broadest sense of the word,” but that there was “no need” to use them at present.

Pressed at the plenary session on whether he would be willing to use them, Putin joked, “What should I say? Scare the whole world? Why do we need to scare the whole world?”

But since the invasion of Ukraine Putin and top officials including deputy head of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have led the nuclear fearmongering. Announcing the invasion on day one, Putin warned that any country that interfered in the war would face consequences “such as you have never seen in your entire history,” in an unambiguous hint about nuclear weapons.

Ukraine says Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby.

Days later, he put Russian nuclear weapons into “special combat readiness.” Since then Russia has suspended participation in the New START accord and announced that nuclear weapons would be stored in Belarus. In September, Putin explicitly warned that Russia would use nuclear weapons if its territory was threatened, as he claimed to annex four Ukrainian regions.

In the latest nuclear warning, Medvedev said a nuclear apocalypse was “not just possible but quite probable” in an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta on Sunday, because “there is no taboo” on using nuclear weapons. Medvedev claimed that the West had to accept the annihilation of Ukraine’s “Nazi” government — “if it does not want an apocalyptic end” to civilization.

Some analysts saw the debate on nuking a NATO country as an orchestrated bluff to escalate Western nuclear fears, but others saw it merely as hard-liners venting about Russia’s failings in the war.

“It’s fair to say that people in that community feel frustration about the situation, and my take is that they are thinking out loud,” Podvig said in an interview. He said that Russian officials had been “pretty consistent, that nuclear weapons could only be used to protect Russia from some kind of existential threat.”

“The weapons are there, and there are scenarios in which they can be used. However, we are, at least at this point, two steps away from this point.” If Russia began to seriously consider using nuclear weapons in Ukraine or Poland, there would first be a much sharper switch in Kremlin rhetoric, he said.

Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience

But a worrying question is what would comprise an “existential threat” to Russia in Putin’s mind, given his profound conviction that he is the state’s sole guardian and protector.

In January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the hands of the Doomsday Clock forward by 10 seconds to 90 seconds to midnight, largely “because of the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine,” it said.

Artur Kacprzyk, analyst on nuclear arms at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, said the Moscow debate on striking Poland was a form of nuclear coercion designed to intimidate NATO, and it caused “concern but definitely not panic.”

“The level of this debate in Russia, and its intensity, about potential nuclear use is higher than before,” he said. “If they believe that the West will fold, that will encourage them to just increase and increase these threats.”

Days before the Wagner rebellion, President Biden said the risk of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon against Europe was “real,” Reuters reported.

But Kirby said last week that the United States had seen “no indication that Mr. Putin is interested in moving in that direction and nor have we seen anything that would cause us to change our own deterrent posture.”

Pro-Kremlin analysts like to argue that a nuclear power “cannot lose” the war, despite a history of bogged down military misadventures by Moscow and Washington.

According to Podvig, a source of frustration for Russia was that possessing nuclear weapons was simply not a decisive factor to win the war.

“It’s not that someone does not respect Russia’s nuclear weapons,” Podvig said. “It’s that you cannot really think of a way of using them to gain any advantage. At this point, I guess the only thing that Russia gets out of its nuclear weapons is that there is no direct involvement of NATO or the United States in this war.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Ursula von der Leyen, formerly a minister under Angela Merkel and currently the president of the European Commission/ Editing by Germán & Co

European Green Deal: More leaders call for 'a regulatory pause'

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, heads of state from the EU-27 are seeking to take into account the economic and social challenges posed by Russia's attack on Ukraine, including food security and the cost of living.

Le Monde By Virginie Malingre, yesterday (Paris)

For Ursula von der Leyen, the issue is complex. Formerly a minister under Angela Merkel and currently the president of the European Commission, she has made the Green Deal one of the priorities of her mandate. But she is currently facing pushback from the conservatives in her own group, the European People's Party (EPP), who are increasingly open in questioning the policy's merits. With European elections scheduled for June 2024, von der Leyen, who would need the support of her party to run for a second term, is walking on eggshells.

On Thursday, June 29, Europe's right-wing heads of state and government – Nikos Christodoulides (Cyprus), Krisjanis Karins (Latvia), Ulf Kristersson (Sweden), Kyriakos Mitsotakis (Greece), Karl Nehammer (Austria), Petteri Orpo (Finland), Andrej Plenkovic (Croatia) and Leo Varadkar (Ireland) – who met in Brussels before heading to a European Council meeting, all approved an EPP declaration calling for "a regulatory pause" at a European level, particularly on the Green Deal. The document calls on institutions to "take into account the new economic and social realities following Russia's attack" on Ukraine.

Von der Leyen, who attended the meeting as usual, did not take part in the debate. She chose to remain silent. A number of leaders, including Plenkovic, Varadkar and Karins, nevertheless stressed that, in attacking the Green Deal, they must be careful not to "weaken" the Commission president, who could enable the EPP to retain the head executive position of the EU after the European elections in June 2024.

Indeed, when it comes to environmental issues, the EPP has always avoided any direct attacks on von der Leyen, despite the fact that she has made the Green Deal a cornerstone of her efforts in Europe. Instead, the party's preferred target is Frans Timmermans, the Commission vice-president responsible for the Green Deal, who comes from the ranks of the Social Democrats. The EPP never misses an opportunity to point out that Timmermans' cabinet director is a former Greenpeace member.

Radical transformation of the EPP

Von der Leyen's entourage stressed that, as president of the Commission, she is obligated to attend EPP pre-summit meetings, but that she does not take any part in drafting the conclusions. "It's a bit hypocritical," said an EPP executive. When questioned on the subject by Le Monde, von der Leyen replied that she "of course listens to the voices of those who have to implement legislation in their companies or on their farms," adding: "My position is well known: environmental regulation and competitiveness or agriculture can go hand in hand."

In recent months, the EPP has undergone a radical transformation in the European Parliament, where the party is the leading political force. After supporting some 30 articles in von der Leyen's Green Deal – notably those designed to move the European Union towards climate neutrality by 2050 – the group is now waging a merciless war, alongside the far right, against two emblematic environmental bills: those on nature restoration and reducing pesticide use.

Manfred Weber, president of the EPP and the group's leader in the European Parliament, has argued that these bills threaten agricultural production, jeopardize food security and drive up the cost of living. Between the war in Ukraine and inflation, Weber claims that a break is urgently needed. As a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), Weber adds that Germany's recession is not helping matters. The fact that the CDU-CSU is now in opposition to Berlin probably doesn't help either.

For the time being, the future of the nature restoration bill is in jeopardy, given that three parliamentary committees – environment, agriculture and fisheries – have rejected it. The fate of the bill will be sealed at the Parliament's plenary session in Strasbourg in July (or September).

Liberal leaders also express doubts

Against this backdrop, Spanish Socialist MEP César Luena questioned the president of the European Commission on June 27, asking her to take a clear stance on the issue: "[Her] political group is withdrawing from the Green Deal. She hasn't said anything yet. Ursula von der Leyen, you must react," he declared. For now, von der Leyen has not responded. Timmermans nevertheless saw fit to do so "in her name and under her supervision," on June 28, by once again lending his support to the nature restoration bill.

Until recently, only the heads of state and government of certain Eastern European countries, with their high-carbon economies, had expressed reticence. More recently, liberal leaders have also voiced their doubts.

French President Emmanuel Macron also called for a "regulatory pause" after 2024, exasperating some of his party members. Alexander De Croo, the Belgian prime minister, followed suit: "What must be avoided (...) is overloading the boat, by adding new standards to the CO2 emission targets," particularly "in the field of biodiversity. I ask that we press the pause button, except for CO2."

In the Netherlands, Mark Rutte has not yet been quite as outspoken. But the success of the "Farmers' Party," an anti-Green Deal movement which, in March, made a real breakthrough in the regional elections, is leading him to advocate a degree of caution. With one year to go to the European elections, the subject is still a hot topic of political debate.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud arrives for an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo/ Editing by Germán & Co

Saudi Arabia says new oil cuts show teamwork with Russia is strong

Russia and Saudi Arabia maintain robust oil cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance. It is comforting to know that the alliance is willing to take any necessary actions to support the market, as Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman mentioned.

Reuters By Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler and Shadia Nasralla, Editing by Germán & co, July 5, 2023

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Russia-Saudi oil cooperation is still going strong as part of the OPEC+ alliance, which will do "whatever necessary" to support the market, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told a conference on Wednesday.

OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia which pumps around 40% of the world's crude, has been cutting oil output since November in the face of flagging prices.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher.

Yet the move only briefly lifted the market. On Wednesday, benchmark Brent futures were down more than 1% at $75.30 per barrel, lower than the $80-$100 per barrel than most OPEC nations need to balance their budgets.

OPEC says it does not have a price target and is seeking to have a balanced oil market to meet the interests of both consumers and producers.

The United States, the biggest oil producer outside OPEC+, has repeatedly called on the group to boost production to help the global economy and has criticised Saudi cooperation with Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

But Riyadh has repeatedly rebuffed U.S. calls and Prince Abdulaziz said on Wednesday that new joint oil output cuts agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia this week have again proven sceptics wrong.

"Part of what we have done (on Monday) with the help of our colleagues from Russia was also to mitigate the cynical side of the spectators on what is going on between Saudi and Russia on that specific matter," Prince Abdulaziz said.

"It is quite telling seeing us on Monday coming out with not only our (oil cut) extension... but also with validation from the Russian side," he told a meeting of oil industry CEOs with ministers from OPEC and allies, known as the OPEC International Seminar.

OPEC has withheld media access to reporters from Reuters, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal to cover the event, which was partly broadcast online.

After the end of the broadcast, Prince Abdulaziz told the seminar that OPEC+ would do "whatever necessary" to support the market, according to a source who attended the meeting.

ENOUGH FOR NOW

Additional oil cuts should be enough to help balance the oil market, United Arab Emirates' energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told reporters on Wednesday.

"This (the latest addition output cuts) is enough to assess the market and look at the market balance," Mazrouei told reporters.

He said the UAE would not be contributing to fresh cuts as it was already producing well below its capacity.

"There’s a bigger thing… I’m seeing a lack of investments in many countries. We will have to invite maybe newcomers to come and join the group. The more countries we have... the easier the job... to ensure that the world has enough oil in the future," Mazrouei said.

"Imagine if we had 60% of the producers or 80% of the producers... We will definitely do a better job."

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News round-up, July 4, 2023

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown. 〰️

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The news of the day…

According to Spiegel, the German foreign intelligence agency (BND) is again under heavy “hailstorms…

The German foreign intelligence agency, the BND, has been under immense criticism lately due to its delayed awareness of the Wagner Group's coup attempt in Russia. There have been discussions about the removal of the current director, Bruno Kahl, as a result.

The German Chancellor's proposal to examine the issue has put the agency's performance under a "microscope", which has not occurred in a considerable time.

The BND's failures have been mounting, with the inability to anticipate the Taliban's assumption of power in Afghanistan, ignoring warnings about Russia's intentions to invade Ukraine, and the recent espionage case of Carsten L. Despite the warning signs, Bruno Kahl decided to travel to Kyiv on the eve of the invasion, only to be confronted with the harsh reality of war upon awakening.

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Most read…

China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips

Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others

WSJ By James T. Areddy,  and Sha Hua,  July 4, 2023 

Venezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office

María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls

WSJ By  Juan Forero,  and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 

Will “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?

Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather

The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

The politics of the French riots

This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.

POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023

Another Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt

Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.

Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Chinese exporters of products and materials containing gallium and germanium will need to apply for special licenses as of August. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS

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China Restricts Exports of Two Minerals Used in High-Performance Chips

Industry executives see export ban on gallium and germanium as retaliation over chip curbs by U.S. and others

WSJ By James T. Areddy,  and Sha Hua,  July 4, 2023 

A solar farm in New Mexico. The U.S. has taken steps to reduce China’s dominance over the U.S. solar market. PHOTO: SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

SINGAPORE—China set export restrictions on two minerals the U.S. says are critical to the production of semiconductors, missile systems and solar cells, a show of force ahead of economic talks between two rivals that increasingly set trade rules to achieve technological dominance.

The minerals—gallium and germanium—and more than three dozen related metals and other materials will be subject to unspecified export controls starting Aug. 1, Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday. Its statement referred to safeguarding national security and interests and said some future export applications would require review by the government’s top body, the State Council.

The China-U.S. rivalry increasingly features export restrictions tailored to slow the high-technology industries of the other nation. Trading complaints about such controls, which both sides say are designed to protect national security, have featured in a return to high-level talks between the two governments. More focus on the issue is likely when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits Beijing later this week and if Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo makes an expected trip in the coming months.

Tech Companies Depend on China for Rare Earths. Can That Change?

Neodymium is critical to making the wheels of a Tesla spin or creating sound in Apple’s AirPods, and China dominates the mining and processing of this rare-earth element. So the U.S. and its allies are building their own supply chain. Photo illustration: Clément Bürge/WSJ

“The U.S. Commerce Department had no immediate comment.

The U.S. in October halted exports to China of equipment used to produce more technically advanced semiconductors and has leaned on allies like South Korea and the Netherlands to do the same. Beijing warned its companies to consider the national-security implications of exports to the U.S. It banned the use of products made by Micron, the U.S.’s biggest memory-chip maker, in its critical information-infrastructure firms, while warning American allies to reject what it terms Cold War-type protectionism peddled by Washington.

Complexities bind the U.S. and China in production of wares such as semiconductors in ways that make it difficult for either side to act too rashly, a kind of technology-sector equivalent of mutually assured destruction. The Biden administration is trying to entice producers such as Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to expand in the U.S. but getting them to turn their back on China appears unlikely.

The new restrictions on gallium and germanium affect specialty metals produced and refined primarily in China, giving it leverage in some cutting-edge sectors. Neither gallium or germanium is traded in large quantities. Both nevertheless have uses important to particular industries, especially production of semiconductors that are often designed in and for use in the U.S. even if made in Taiwan and South Korea.

“This measure will have an immediate ripple effect on the semiconductor industry, especially with regards to high-performance chips,” said Alastair Neill, board member of the Critical Mineral Institute who has nearly 30 years of experience with China’s metals industry. 

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Estimated production of unrefined gallium in 2022

——China: 540,000 ——Rest of the world: 10,000 kilograms.

Note: Other countries that produce unrefined gallium are Russia, Japan, South Korea and Ukraine.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey

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China has smarted at U.S. efforts to slow the advance of its semiconductor manufacturing, which Washington warns is ultimately aimed at strengthening Beijing’s military. The Biden administration has made it difficult for China to buy lithography machines needed to produce high-performance chips, and last week scored a win when the Dutch government said its equipment makers like ASML would need government permission to ship some products abroad.

Chinese chip makers and suppliers who gathered in Shanghai for a recent industry event were in a grim but defiant mood following a Wall Street Journal report that the Biden administration is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial-intelligence chips to China.

Industry analysts see a pattern of tit-for-tat. “If you don’t send high-end chips to China, China will respond by not sending you the high-performance elements you need for those chips,” said Neill, who added that Beijing usually tries to match U.S. trade measures with a countermeasure of equal proportion.

Both gallium and germanium appear among 50 minerals that the U.S. Geological Survey deems “critical,” meaning they are essential to the economic or national security of the U.S. and have a supply chain vulnerable to disruption. 

Gallium, a soft, silvery metal at room temperature, is a key ingredient in a fast-growing class of semiconductors used in phone chargers and electric vehicles, among a growing range of commercial and military applications. About 53% of the U.S.’s gallium was imported from China between 2018 and 2021, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, with imports decreasing substantially in 2019 after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on Chinese gallium. There is no U.S. production of unrefined gallium.

Gallium arsenide—a compound with arsenic—is widely used for high-performance chips because it is more resistant to heat and moisture as well as more conductive than silicon. At the moment, “no effective substitutes exist for GaAs in these applications,” noted the 2023 U.S. Geological Survey on gallium. 

The U.S. military relies on gallium nitride, a related product, for its properties for efficiently transmitting power deployed in the most advanced radars under development. It is also being used in the replacement for the Patriot missile-defense system being made by RTX, formerly known as Raytheon Technologies. Beijing previously had said it would seek to prevent a unit of RTX, which didn’t respond to a question about gallium, from using Chinese products in its military technology.  

An arm of Raytheon Technologies is on Beijing’s ‘unreliable entities list,’ which prohibits companies from export and import activities related to China. PHOTO: PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/REUTERS

In 2016, the U.S. blocked the proposed purchase by Chinese investors of a controlling stake in an auto and light-emitting diode components business unit of the Dutch electronics company Philips valued at $2.8 billion over concerns of the dual-use potential for gallium nitride.

Sales of chips using gallium nitride were $2.47 billion last year, according to Precedence Research, but are expected to climb to $19.3 billion by 2030. Chips produced with gallium-arsenide are expected to grow from $1.4 billion last year to $3.4 billion in 2030, according to Research and Markets.

Germanium, a lustrous, grayish-white metal, can make silicon a faster conductor and is often used in making fiber-optic systems and solar cells, including those used in space applications.

To trade experts, China’s new export restrictions on the commodities is a reminder of an earlier export-quota system Beijing imposed for rare earths, another group of metals produced mostly in China that have prized qualities for high-technology manufacturers. The U.S. in 2014 won a case at the World Trade Organization that argued China’s export limits on rare earths, as well as tungsten and molybdenum, were inconsistent with international trade rules.

Later, in 2019, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made a visit to one of the country’s key rare-earth production zones. To analysts, the visit appeared to be a warning Beijing could disrupt trade in the minerals, days after the Trump administration made it illegal to supply some U.S. technology to Chinese telecommunications equipment maker Huawei Technologies.

Export controls allow Beijing to target individual companies as well as broader sectors of particular industries and make decisions based on geopolitical considerations, said Paul Triolo, senior vice president for China and technology-policy lead at the Washington-based advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group.

Chinese exporters of products and materials containing gallium and germanium will need to apply for special licenses as of August. PHOTO: CFOTO/ZUMA PRESS

China has signaled to the U.S. that it is interested in establishing a new bilateral dialogue on export controls, and the latest move could provide Beijing with more leverage in coming discussions with Washington, he said.

The controls announced Monday follow a pattern of quieter restrictions on American access to other commodities produced in China, such as materials known as super-abrasives that also are used in high-technology industries, according to Nazak Nikakhtar, a trade lawyer who formerly held roles related to national security and commodity supply chains at the Commerce Department and is now a partner at Washington law firm Wiley Rein LLP. “It’s really arm-flexing, to remind the U.S. how strong they are and to remind us how much control they have over our supply chains,” she said.

While Nikakhtar said she doesn’t think the gallium and germanium restrictions are designed to be a bargaining chip for the coming talks with American officials, she said they should seize the opportunity to remind their Chinese counterparts that Washington can close loopholes on its current export restrictions and that it has the power to apply economic sanctions. 

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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María Corina Machado, pictured in Caracas last week among supporters, is a conservative politician and activist. PHOTO: GABY ORAA/BLOOMBERG NEWS / Editing by Germán & Co

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Venezuela Bans a Top Opposition Figure From Public Office

María Corina Machado, a longtime adversary of President Nicolás Maduro, was leading a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls

WSJ By  Juan Forero,  and Kejal Vyas, June 30, 2023 

María Corina Machado, pictured in Caracas last week among supporters, is a conservative politician and activist. PHOTO: GABY ORAA/BLOOMBERG NEWS

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime on Friday barred opposition figure María Corina Machado, a conservative who had been drawing energetic crowds on the campaign trail, from running in presidential elections expected next year.

“I’m not sorry nor surprised nor worried,” Machado, a 55-year-old politician and activist, said via text message to The Wall Street Journal shortly after the ruling. “We knew that they were going to do it. It is a big mistake on their part.”

The decision by the Comptroller’s Office dims already faint prospects for free and fair elections in 2024. Biden administration officials have repeatedly said that the Maduro government must organize democratic elections for Washington to lift sanctions against regime officials and the country’s lifeblood oil industry. 

Maduro’s government has barred other politicians who had been popular in polls from campaigning and holding office, most notably Leopoldo López and Henrique Capriles, a two-time presidential candidate. The regime has often made vague assertions of irregularities or corruption for prohibiting politicians from running.

Popular opposition politican Leopoldo López was banned from running for presidcent. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

“We condemn the prohibition of @MariaCorinaYa,” Juanita Goebertus, director of the Americas Division of Human Rights Watch, the New York-based group, said on her Twitter account. “This decision violates her political rights and those of the Venezuelan people. The international community, especially those governments with access to Maduro, should request that this very serious decision be reversed.

In prohibiting Machado from holding office for 15 years, the Comptroller’s Office cited alleged corruption and her support for a U.S.-backed Venezuelan opposition movement that has used economic sanctions to dislodge Maduro. Machado, who is well-known among politicians in Washington and other capitals, has been open about supporting efforts to unseat Maduro.

Machado’s actions are an “affront to public ethics, administrative morality, the state of law, peace and sovereignty,” the Comptroller’s office said in a five-page letter dated June 27 and made public by a pro-regime lawmaker.  The letter accuses Machado of working with the opposition to cut off the Maduro administration’s access to foreign bank accounts and overseas assets, including U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum Corp., and gold bullion at the Bank of England, leaving them vulnerable to creditors that are seeking to recoup billions of dollars in debts from Caracas. 

In recent polls, Machado, who comes from a wealthy family of industrialists, has led a pool of some 14 opposition presidential hopefuls ahead of October primaries the opposition had scheduled to pick a single presidential candidate. The Caracas consulting firm Poder y Estrategia said a poll done in early June showed that Machado had the support of 57% of respondents who planned to cast a ballot in the primaries.

María Corina Machado signed an application to be eligible to run for president last week in Caracas. PHOTO: CARLOS BECERRA/GETTY IMAGES

Machado will still be able to participate in the primaries because the opposition is organizing them independently of the regime-controlled National Electoral Council. But Friday’s ban will prohibit Machado from facing off against the regime’s eventual candidate, who is widely expected to be Maduro. A date for the presidential election has yet to be set.

The government’s prohibition against running underscores its determination to avoid an opening for an opposition politician to win in an election, said Eduardo Battistini, president of Venezuela’s First Justice Party in exile.

“Today, by barring Maria Corina Machado as they have dozens of opponents, they are removing those who propose change in Venezuela,” he said.

Machado has been barred by the Maduro regime from leaving the country since 2015, when the Comptroller first banned her from political office for 12 months. Friday’s announcement increased that ban to 15 years. 

In recent weeks, she had been campaigning around the country, including in the cattle-growing heartland of Venezuela, long a Socialist Party stronghold. She pledged to dismantle a state-led economic model that has driven the oil-rich nation into financial ruin. And unlike other opposition politicians, Machado also said she wanted to privatize state energy giant Petróleos de Venezuela SA.

Pollsters and political analysts say that Venezuela’s opposition movement has faced widespread voter apathy since its leadership voted in December to remove Juan Guaidó as its leader. The U.S. and its allies had since 2019 recognized him as Venezuela’s legitimate president because they had deemed the 2018 election that Maduro had won as fraudulent.

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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People walk through a dust storm in Prayagraj, India. Countries across the world are experiencing record temperatures. Photograph: Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/ Editing by Germán & Co

Will “El Niño” on top of global heating create the perfect climate storm?

Rising temperatures in north Atlantic and drop in Antarctic sea ice prompt fears of widespread damage from extreme weather

The Guardian by Jonathan Watts, Julian Amani, Paul Scruton and Lucy Swan, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

“Very unusual”, “worrying”, “terrifying”, and “bonkers”; the reactions of veteran scientists to the sharp increase in north Atlantic surface temperatures over the past three months raises the question of whether the world’s climate has entered a more erratic and dangerous phase with the onset of an El Niño event on top of human-made global heating.

Since April, the warming appears to have entered a new trajectory. Meanwhile the area of global sea ice has dropped by more than 1 million sq km below the previous low.

“If a few decades ago, some people might have thought climate change was a relatively slow-moving phenomenon, we are now witnessing our climate changing at a terrifying rate,” said Prof Peter Stott, who leads the UK Met Office’s climate monitoring and attribution team. “As the El Niño builds through the rest of this year, adding an extra oomph to the damaging effects of human-induced global heating, many millions of people across the planet and many diverse ecosystems are going to face extraordinary challenges and unfortunately suffer great damage.”

The El Niño climate pattern emerges when normal easterly winds weaken and warm water spreads across the whole Pacific.

The immediate impact is on marine life which is unaccustomed to waters that have warmed by several degrees in some areas. More worrying still, the extra energy in the ocean, which is the world’s biggest heat absorber, may bring fiercer-than-usual storms, more destructive rain dumps and longer, hotter heatwaves.

When the extremes in the north Atlantic started to be registered in April, the hope was that this would prove a temporary blip. In May, however, the average temperature in the region was the highest since records began in 1850. On 12 June, the climatologist Brian McNoldy stirred up a Twitter storm by calculating that, based on past data, there was a one in 256,0000 chance of this happening.

This anomaly prompted some commentators to wonder if something unforeseen – a black swan event – was taking place in the climate system. Calmer heads explained that it was more likely the result of El Niño and other natural factors being amplified by the greenhouse gas emissions from cars, factories and forest clearance.

Michael Mann, the presidential distinguished professor at the University of Pennsylvania, warned against “cherry picking” one set of data from one region over a relatively short period of time. It was more important, he said, to focus on the bigger picture: that burning fossil fuels was leading to more powerful and destructive hurricanes as well as providing the energy in the atmosphere to fuel extreme weather events, such as droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and floods. “We need to step back and look at the big picture. And it is alarming. The truth,” Mann said, “is bad enough.”

Katharine Hayhoe, the chief scientist with the Nature Conservancy and distinguished professor at Texas Tech University, said the north Atlantic temperature anomaly was the result of long-term loading of the climate system by 380 zeta joules of extra heat from human emissions of heat-trapping gases. “Nearly 90% of it has been going into the ocean; and it’s that gradual but inexorable increase in ocean heat content over time scales of decades rather than years that most worries climate scientists,” she said.

Around Ireland and the UK, coastal waters have been several degrees warmer than average for the time of year. Storms are now forming in the Atlantic earlier than normal, almost certainly as a result of the extra energy that is building up in the surface layer of the ocean. For the first time in June, there have been two simultaneous named tropical storms in the Atlantic, Bret and Cindy.

However, rather than seeing the north Atlantic spike as a one-off event, Richard Betts, the head of the climate impacts division at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter said: “We can expect this kind of event to happen more often – which of course is a major cause for concern. For me, these graphs [of Atlantic surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice] are like yet another hammer blow driving home the urgency of the climate situation we are now in.”

While human emissions and El Niño are likely to be the two main drivers of the north Atlantic spike, Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with the Breakthrough Institute, said more time was needed to disentangle other possible contributing factors, such as this year’s unusual dearth in Saharan dust levels, the large amount of stratospheric water vapour, the slowing of ocean circulation and the increasing frequency of El Niño events.

More broadly, Hausfather said, the trends were in line with climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that showed warming would accelerate in coming decades unless emissions were reduced. “I’m reluctant to say that it’s worse than we expected, because what we expect in a world where we don’t reduce emissions is bad enough.”

How much worse things get depends on the intensity and duration of this El Niño. Carlos Nobre, who is one of Brazil’s top climate scientists, said there was a 60% chance that this year’s El Niño would be a strong one. This would be “very very worrying” for the Amazon rainforest, which sustained some of its worst degradation during 2015-16, when an El Niño event caused the dry season to become longer and left the vegetation more vulnerable to fire.

Elsewhere in the world, the latest El Niño is already causing misery. In Mexico, several cities have recently broken the record for their hottest days ever, including Chihuahua, Nuevo Laredo and Monclova. Many cities in Texas are sweltering in their worst-ever heatwaves. The same is true in China, where more than 20 cities, including Shandong, Tianjin and Huairou have registered new peaks. In Europe, the Austrian town of Oberndorf sweltered in a freakishly hot midnight temperature of 36.1C, one of the continent’s highest-ever nighttime temperatures. In the Middle East, people are used to heat but they can normally expect some respite at high altitudes. That was not the case in Iran last week, when the temperature in Saravan hit 45C – one of the hottest days ever recorded at an elevation of more than 1,000m.

Many things are still uncertain. Scientists will not know for a couple of months how severe El Niño will be. Its wind-sheering effect could inhibit storm formation and help to balance out the pressure of the sea-level temperature. The north Atlantic heat spike is already showing signs that it may fade.

But there is no doubt among scientists that things will continue to get worse as long as greenhouse gases continue to rise and natural climate stabilisers, such as the Amazon, continue to be cut down.

Hayhoe said the trends made her feel “even more concerned and even more motivated to ensure I’m doing everything I can to help people understand the profound risks climate change poses to them and how each of us can be a powerful advocate for climate action”.

“It makes me feel sad and anxious,” said Stott. “Sad for the level of environmental destruction going on around the world, including the continuing destruction of the Amazon rainforest. And anxious for how people are going to cope if this carries on much longer, not just in far-away places that are already very hot and dry, but here in the UK where fires, flash floods and droughts are getting more and more frequent and intense. It isn’t a secure and sustaining future to look forward to. I still hope a turning point can be reached such that greenhouse gas emissions do start to reduce rapidly. And I know that this can be done without devastating our quality of life, quite the opposite in fact.”

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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A French firefighter looks at a burning car in Floirac on the outskirts of Bordeaux, south-western France | Philippe Lopez/AFP/ Editing by Germán & Co

The politics of the French riots

This is largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction.

POLITICO EU BY JOHN LICHFIELD, JULY 3, 2023

John Lichfield is a former foreign editor of the Independent and was the newspaper’s Paris correspondent for 20 years.

Beware of those who offer a simple explanation of the riots that have exploded in multi-racial suburbs across France.

These are not, for the most part, political riots — although they are influenced by, and will dangerously inflame, the poisonously divided politics of France.

They are not religious riots. Many of the very young rioters may have a sense of besieged Muslim identity, but they are driven by  anger rather than their religion. This is an insurrection, not an intifada.

They are not, properly speaking, truly race riots. The great majority of the many millions of hard-working residents of the racially mixed suburbs which surround French cities are not involved.

Rather, they are the main victims of the destruction of cars, buses, trams, schools, libraries, shops and social centers which began after a 17-year-old boy was shot dead by a traffic cop in Nanterre, just west of Paris, last Tuesday. Parents and other adults are now beginning (belatedly) to try to contain this explosion of violence by young men and boys as young as 12.

The riots are, in a sense, anti-France; but they are also, in part, mimetically French. Grievances go more rapidly to the street in France than in other countries. The worst excesses of the largely white, provincial Yellow Vests movement in 2018-19 came close in blind violence to what we have seen in the last week.

The riots are, for sure, anti-police and anti-authority.

Young men of African and North African origin are much more likely to be stopped by French police than young white men. Seventeen people, mostly of African or North African origin, have been shot dead in the last 18 months after refusing to obey police orders to halt their cars.

The last big explosion in the suburbs, or banlieues, lasted for three weeks in October-November 2005. The new eruption shows some signs of abating after only six days but has already crossed new boundaries.

The 2005 riots were confined to the suburbs themselves. There were attacks on buildings and public transport but little direct confrontation with police. There was almost no looting and pillaging.

On this occasion, police have been attacked with fireworks, Molotov cocktails and shotguns. Shops and shopping centers have been raided. The rioting has pierced the invisible barrier between the inner suburbs and prosperous French cities — although a threatened attack on the Champs Elysées in Paris on Saturday night came to little.

Protestors flee from an exploding firework on a street in Nice, south-eastern France early July 2, 2023 | Valery Hache/AFP via Getty Images

The opportunistic looting appears mostly to be the work of the very young. The more targeted violence — including an attack by a blazing car on the home of a mayor in the south Paris suburbs on Saturday night — is more organized and more obscurely political.

There are convincing reports of the involvement of the ultra-left, mostly white, Black Bloc movement which has tried to establish links with suburban youth in recent years.

But this remains largely an insurrection without aims: a scream of fury, an anarchic rejection of even local forms of government; an act of gang-warfare writ large; a competition in performative destruction between disaffected young men in suburbs and towns across France. 

The other great and menacing difference with 2005 is the national political background. Eighteen years ago, France was  a country dominated by the traditional parties of the center-right and center-left. No prominent politicians encouraged the riots. Few sought to profit from them by suggesting that France faced racial or religious civil war.

Now French politics is split three ways between a radical left, President Emmanuel Macron’s muddled, reformist center and a hard and far right that thinks in explicitly racial terms.

The hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and some of his closest allies have infuriated even other left-wing politicians by refusing to condemn the riots, even the looting. “I don’t call for calm, I call for justice,” Mélenchon said (despite the fact that the policeman who inexplicably shot 17-year-old Nahel last Tuesday has already been charged with homicide).

Meanwhile, a powerful but divided far right is pressing Macron to crack down violently on the rioters (despite the fact that another death, however accidental, could send the riots into an uncontrollable new dimension).

The teenagers on the streets are almost all French — not immigrants. And yet Marine Le Pen’s rival Eric Zemmour — echoed by editorials in the usually more careful center-right Le Figaro — has spoken of a “war” with “foreign enclaves in our midst.”

This inflammatory language is not new. Le Pen, Zemmour and others habitually refuse to recognize that the multi-racial suburbs contain millions of hard-working people — mostly French-born — without whom the prosperous cities could not survive.  

They also refuse to recognize the substantial evidence of brutality and racial discrimination by the French police in their admittedly thankless work in the banlieues.

The boy shot dead in Nanterre was not yet born at the time of the 2005 riots. A new generation of young people has grown up in the last 18 years in the suspicion, or belief, that much of the rest of France will never accept them as French.

Many of those French people will look at the events of the last week and their prejudices and fears will be confirmed or deepened.

The riots will abate in time. Over €4 billion has already been spent to improve life in the banlieues in the last two decades. More will doubtless be found to try to reverse the orgy of self-harm of the last week.

 It is harder to see what can reverse the spiral of suspicion, misunderstanding, rejection and fear.

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The BND's headquarters in Berlin: Germany's foreign intelligence agency is under fire. Foto: Jörg Carstensen/ picture alliance/ Editing by Germán & Co

Another Stumble German Intelligence Criticized for Slow Reaction To Russian Coup Attempt

Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, is under fire for learning too late about the recent Wagner Group coup attempt in Russia. It's possible the agency's head could soon be out as a result of the late response, which many see as one too many.

Spiegel By Matthias Gebauer, Martin Knobbe, Marina Kormbaki, Fidelius Schmid, Christoph Schult und Wolf Wiedmann-Schmidt, 03.07.2023

The BND's headquarters in Berlin: Germany's foreign intelligence agency is under fire.

Foto: Jörg Carstensen / picture alliance

It was business as usual for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he appeared on a national political interview lasts Wednesday and was asked about the country's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, and its response to the internal Russian power struggle. The chancellor spoke quietly, with deliberation, as he always does. Addressing the recent uprising of the Wagner Group mercenaries in Russia, he said that the BND "did not, of course, know beforehand" about events that were about to unfold.

“In light of U.S. media reports that the CIA had learned about Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans well before the escalation, the chancellor said that a closer look needs to be taken at the flow of information among allies. "We will all have to discuss that together," he said.

It sounded as if Scholz was doing his best to protect the BND. But insiders within the intelligence community were startled by the chancellor's words. The statement that the BND "of course" knew nothing could also be interpreted as cynicism – or that the chancellor has reduced his expectations of the agency to zero. It is, of course, part of the job of an intelligence service to catch developments like what happened just over a week ago as early as possible.

The chancellor's suggestion that they would now have to discuss things was also carefully noted. Because it would mean that the BND's performance would be coming under the microscope - a place it hasn't been recently. Ultimately, agency head Bruno Kahl may even find himself in the hot seat.

The impetus for the chancellor's concealed displeasure came from two press reports in recent days. "How the German government was taken by surprise by the Wagner revolt," DER SPIEGEL wrote as events unfolded. "Caught cold again," read the headline in the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper.

The German government initially tried to contain the damage. Of course, the BND had already informed the Chancellery about the events on Friday, meaning one day before the advance of Prigozhin's troops on Moscow dominated the news broadcasts.

First Information Obtained in Mid-June

Meanwhile, the BND also tried to water down critique. On Tuesday morning, a high-ranking security official commented on the matter at a symposium in Berlin. The meeting of dozens of representatives from politics and business took place under the Chatham House Rule, according to which discussion participants are not to be identified by name afterward.

The representative speaking on behalf of the agency saw no reason for criticism. Of course, he said, the German government had already been informed several times about the tensions between Wagner chief Prigozhin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He said they may not have been aware of the the march on Moscow weeks in advance – "but neither had the Americans."

By then, the U.S. media had long since begun reporting that the intelligence services of the United States may very well have possessed such information. The Washington Post reported that the initial information began to emerge in mid-June. According to other media, selected politicians in the U.S. Congress along with high-ranking military and government officials, known collectively as the Gang of Eight, had already been briefed on Wednesday. On Friday, June 23, the intelligence services briefed the White House.

And Germany's BND? Initial attempts to shield the agency ultimately failed. Last Tuesday, BND headquarters issued an order to thoroughly review its own knowledge and all information provided by the intelligence services of friendly countries in advance. And security policy experts in the parties in Germany's government coalition began discussing whether the president of the BND would be able to keep his job.

Bruno Kahl, 60, became head of the service in 2016 after his predecessor, Gerhard Schindler, was removed from the position unexpectedly. Schindler had actually survived the scandal involving files from the U.S. spy agency NSA before then-Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU ) suddenly sent him into temporary retirement.

Kahl's mission at the time had been to reform the service and keep it scandal-free. Internally, however, the complaint quickly arose that it was becoming increasingly difficult to achieve good results at all because of the many new control mechanisms. International partner services noted with pity that the BND was "quite obviously shackled" by German legislation, as one foreign intelligence chief put it.

Indeed, the Wager Group uprising wasn't the first time recently that the BND had been accused of cluelessness.

By the time the Taliban seized power  in Afghanistan in 2021, for example, BND analysts had been warning for several years of the country's approaching collapse, and even predicted the Taliban's seizure of power eight months before Kabul fell. But when it actually came to pass, the BND was caught flat-footed. Two years later, that failure is still a focus of a parliamentary investigative committee in the German Bundestag.

BND experts also long dismissed warnings from American and British services about specific plans by Russia to invade Ukraine. It wasn't until a few days before the February 2022 invasion that the concerns of their Anglo-Saxon colleagues slowly began to take hold in Berlin as well. But that didn't stop BND President Kahl from flying to Kyiv on the eve of the Russian invasion – only to wake up to war.

Then, in December, police arrested BND employee Carsten L. on suspicions he served as a Russian spy. It subsequently came to light that the agent had passed security checks despite his apparently right-wing extremist views – and had even been granted responsibility for the security checks of other BND employees.

"The BND's information base on Russia's inner workings was obviously thin."

Ulrich Lechte, member of the Free Democratic Party

Some of these mishaps can be explained, dismissed or glossed over by the BND. Speaking to parliament, Kahl claimed that Putin's invasion had "not really surprised" the BND. And in the case of Carsten L., the BND pointed out that the damage was insignificant given that the double agent  had been uncovered at such an early stage. But such explanations can only be used so many times.

"Slowly, we're beginning to be surprised by events too often," says Ralf Stegner of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the chairman of the Afghanistan investigation committee in the German parliament.

"The BND's information on Russia's inner workings was obviously thin," says Ulrich Lechte, foreign policy spokesman for the parliamentary group of the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) in the Bundestag. "There is no other explanation for the fact that no information whatsoever was provided to us in parliament about the imminent uprising of Prigozhin and the Wagner group."

"The situation is definitely frustrating," says Sara Nanni, a member of parliament with the Green Party. She also says it is far too easy to cast blame on the BND. All of this is "also a question of resources," she says.

Should the BND have been aware of Prigozhin's plans at an early stage? "This kind of thing doesn't happen overnight," says a former senior CIA official who had jurisdiction over Russia. "There's troop movement and equipment relocation, communications – you pick up on a lot of things."

In fact, and this is part of the assessment, there are major differences between American intelligence services and the BND. The CIA has many more employees than the German foreign intelligence service, the worldwide interception of signals intelligence is conducted by another agency, the NSA. The BND tries to cover everything in one agency: the monitoring of communications, managing human sources and conducting research into publicly accessible sources of information. Employees also produce extensive analyses. At many other intelligence services, those efforts are considered a waste of time; whereas at the BND, they are considered to be the agency's paramount work.

For some time now, the strengths of German intelligence have been primarily in technical reconnaissance and liaison – the art of asking friendly intelligence agencies to share their insights.

In Washington, London and possibly also in Paris, information was apparently available again this time. Only, it would seem that it didn't find its way to Berlin. When the partners were asked about the criticism, they reportedly said that the U.S. media coverage had been exaggerated. That the information that had been shared with Congress had been more of a general nature. Some experts are even claiming that the narrative of the Americans' detailed knowledge of secret goings-on within Moscow's power apparatus was intended primarily for Russian ears – and that the U.S. media had allowed themselves to be harnessed for that strategy. Or was Berlin deliberately left out?

At any rate, the Germans' skeptical attitude in the run-up to Putin's invasion of Ukraine has not been forgotten on the other side of the English Channel and the Atlantic. As if to prove the point, the U.S. news network CNN reported  last week that the U.S. had shared its detailed intelligence only with select allies, including the United Kingdom. CNN reported it had been "extremely detailed" information.

In fact, some information had been made available to the BND. Prior to the coup attempt, for example, Berlin had received several indications that tensions had been building between Wagner boss Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the BND was unable to verify that information independently. It's also unlikely it received the tip that Prigozhin would call for a march on Moscow.

The service interpreted satellite images provided by the United States, according to which Wagner's troops were gathering near Rostov-on-Don, as being consistent with the mercenaries' announced return to their bases. The fact that they were actually preparing to seize Rostov apparently hadn't been apparent to the BND analysts.

The discontent over the latest developments has since spread to the German ministries controlled by the partners in the coalition government. According to reports, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party expressed irritation that she had participated in a meeting with high-ranking BND representatives as recently as Friday – and that the power struggle between the Wagner mercenary group and the Kremlin hadn't even been broached.

The Foreign Ministry has also expressed displeasure that even the sparse information it does receive from the BND must be painstakingly elicited from the agency. Sources say the Foreign Ministry learned through their own analysis of Russian Telegram groups that Prigozhin's private army was on a confrontation course with the Kremlin. One of Baerbock's staffers apparently then asked the BND what was going on.

It was not until much later in the evening that a response from the intelligence officials arrived – with rather sparse explanations that didn't go beyond the level of what could be inferred from public sources, according to Foreign Ministry officials.

To be fair, even in normal times, officials in the Foreign Ministry don't think very highly of the BND. But officials inside the Defense Ministry also seemed displeased about the situation. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democrats first learned of the attempted Wagner coup on the morning of Saturday, June 24. From news agencies.

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News round-up, July 3, 2023

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

〰️

Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby… “The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown. 〰️

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Quote of the day…

“International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter

Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies

The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

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Most read…

Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man

Jigar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment

WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 

Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster. These people live nearby…

“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 

Factbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.

Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter

Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies

The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Jigar Shah, center, with colleagues in his Washington, D.C., office. With new funding, ‘the floodgates have really opened,’ said a former leader of the program. ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL / editing by Germán & Co

Joe Biden’s $400 Billion Man

Jigar Shah, who runs the Energy Department’s loan program, is trying to hand out a lot of money for green-technology projects, while navigating an unforgiving political environment

WSJ Scott Patterson, and Amrith Ramkumar, July 2, 2023 

Jigar Shah is living an investor’s dream, one with more strings attached than a symphony orchestra.

Shah has $400 billion of government funds to pour into businesses touting green-energy projects. But he has to do it under the eye of critical lawmakers, cautious bureaucrats and the White House, which has already clashed with him on the politics of his lending juggernaut. Losses are likely and will be frowned on by Congress.

The line for Shah’s cash stretches to 150 companies seeking $127.7 billion in loans, ranging from new companies with unproven products to giants such as General Motors and PG&E, the California utility blamed for deadly wildfires. Funneling that much money to climate startups in a short time would be near impossible. Shah has begun writing bigger checks, including a record $9.2 billion commitment to a Ford joint venture making batteries in Tennessee and Kentucky.

The source of Shah’s financial firepower is the Energy Department’s Loan Programs Office, an overlooked piece of the Biden administration’s strategy to address climate change. Largely quiescent for almost a decade, the office is designed to finance businesses that are important to the country’s energy transition but unable to borrow from traditional lenders, often because their technology is seen as too risky or because the terms are too onerous.

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Resurrected

The Loan Programs Office has made several commitments recently after years of stagnation.

LPO project portfolio

Ford/SK, Battery JV, $9.2 billion, 2024; GM/LG, 2.5 billion, 2023; Li-Cycle, $375 million, 2022; Monolith, 1.04 billion, 2021; Sunnova, $3 billion, Commitments under Jigar Shah, 2020.

*Date of initial issuance shown.  The project has received several rounds of funding.
Note: Data through late June. Date of commitment or loan issuance shown. Excludes projects that closed loans but received no disbursement for various reasons.

Sources: Loan Programs Office; the companies

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“We would absolutely look at investing alongside them,” said Jehangir Vevaina, a managing partner at Brookfield Asset Management who helps oversee the private firm’s $15 billion energy transition fund. That fund, one of the largest of its kind, typically invests in a company’s equity, which can become less risky when government loans give businesses a stamp of approval, as well as lower borrowing costs than commercial banks.

Climate-related provisions in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act gave Shah’s office a windfall, multiplying its lending capacity 10-fold. That pile of cash is at least 20 times as big as most private green-energy funds, giving Shah and the Loan Programs Office a major role in shaping the American energy landscape.

That is how Shah found himself in early 2021 calling hundreds of clean-energy executives to pitch the loans his office could provide. Primary targets were clean-energy startups that had raised at least $100 million in equity financing. He also wooed big businesses with the resources to pay back large loans.

Some were reluctant to apply, worried about the complicated approval process and the risks of taking a government loan. Shah, eager to get funds out the door, can be impatient. In September, he pressed a startup company that has a plan for recycling batteries to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars from the federal government to construct a plant.

The company’s chief executive, Ajay Kochhar, was hesitant, unsure how quickly it could repay. “Get your ass to Pittsburgh,” where a clean-energy conference was about to start, Shah told the executive, according to people familiar with the conversation.

At a coffee shop soon after, Shah told Kochhar, of Li-Cycle Holdings, that its recycling plant could easily generate enough revenue for repayment. Five months later, the two announced a $375 million federal loan.

Shah’s office is “the clean-energy bank of the United States,” said Peter Davidson, who led it from 2013 to 2015. With its burst of funding, “the floodgates have really opened,” he said.

The loan program is part of the reason the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits and spending represent one of the largest outlays of taxpayer-financed industrial stimulus since the 1930s New Deal.

In early June, Shah’s office committed $850 million to startup battery maker Kore Power. The loan would fund what the company calls the KOREplex, a giant battery manufacturing facility in the desert about 35 miles west of Phoenix.

Shortly after, the Loan Programs Office announced the record commitment to the Ford battery venture. The $9.2 billion agreement is bigger than the $5.9 billion Ford borrowed from the office starting in 2009, when it was struggling through the financial crisis.

Solyndra PTSD

Hanging over the Loan Programs Office’s every move is what Shah called “Solyndra PTSD.” Despite the office’s successes, which include backing Tesla, it remains dogged by a busted loan to solar-panel startup Solyndra.

Solyndra failed in 2011 after China flooded the market with low-price panels. In addition, an investigation by the Energy Department’s inspector general found Solyndra had misrepresented facts and omitted key information in getting the loan. The $535 million loan that went sour made staffers cautious, borrowers nervous and critics of the program aggressive.

The Energy Department’s loan office has come under fire in the past, most notably for its botched funding to Solyndra, a solar-panel manufacturer that went bust in 2011. PHOTO: ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R., Wash.), chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, has called the expanded funding “Solyndra on steroids” and said the Inflation Reduction Act’s new spending and lending “has heightened the risk for waste, fraud and abuse.” She said her committee is in regular contact with the loan office.

Shah’s first loan deal after taking over in 2021 was a $1 billion commitment to Monolith, a company that aims to produce hydrogen from natural gas. The company’s technology will capture the carbon that the process yields and turn it into a material for everyday products such as tires. Clean hydrogen is an alternative to oil and gas. 

Several members of Shah’s staff worried the deal was too risky, people familiar with the matter said. Shah argued it was safe because it required Monolith to set aside revenue and meet rigorous requirements before getting the money, such as showing its production process would work at scale. Monolith hasn’t yet met them.

Last summer, Monolith raised more than $300 million in equity from investors including BlackRock and NextEra Energy, the most valuable power company in the U.S.

Staff members raised concerns about a potential loan to a company called Syrah Resources, a producer of graphite, which is used in rechargeable batteries, people familiar with the matter said. Raw material for its Louisiana processing facility would come from a mine in Mozambique, the scene of terrorist attacks, raising concerns that disruptions would threaten Syrah’s project. Shah pushed ahead, on the grounds that the program was protected in the deal and the U.S. needed to lessen its dependence on China for graphite. The office issued a $102 million loan last summer.

When Shah supported granting a loan for an Occidental Petroleum project, White House officials told him it could backfire. The project involved removing carbon from the atmosphere via a new technology, then injecting it into the ground to extract more oil. Administration officials worried about a backlash from environmentalists, a person familiar with the discussion said.

Shah argued it was worth exploring as a way to develop carbon-removal technology. The loan application is still working its way through the office. Occidental’s first big carbon- removal plant is under construction. 

Despite having lived for decades around Washington, D.C., Shah seems more like a creature of Silicon Valley’s high-tech culture than a Beltway denizen. He co-founded a solar-energy company, SunEdison, in 2003 with a home-equity line of credit. It revolutionized the way businesses and homeowners paid for rooftop solar panels. Under its financing concept, which Shah drew up for a business-school class project at the University of Maryland, the panels are typically paid for over a 20-year stretch, in part with buyers’ savings from generating their own power, making the panels almost free in the long run.

Installations exploded, and SunEdison became North America’s largest rooftop-solar provider. Shah left in 2008, the company was sold in 2009. Years later it went bankrupt after an aggressive growth strategy backfired.

Shah co-founded clean-energy investment firm Generate Capital about nine years ago. His effusive personality and list of contacts helped build Generate into one of the largest clean-energy investment firms. At Generate’s San Francisco office he would hold court in a cavernous space known as the “Jigar-torium.”

When approached by the Biden transition team about leading the Loan Programs Office, Shah was reluctant. On a podcast he used to co-host called, “The Energy Gang,” he once called the office “irredeemable” because it was doing so little. 

Patti Poppe, now the CEO of PG&E, listened to the podcast in the mornings while exercising on her treadmill. “It would make me run faster because he’d make me mad,” she said. Shah often criticized utilities for moving too slowly. Poppe eventually invited Shah to talk to the management team at her previous job in Michigan and became convinced the industry needed to be more aggressive.

At PG&E, she is seeking a roughly $7 billion loan to upgrade and bury the utility’s outdated power lines, to reduce wildfire risk and keep up with rising electricity demand driven by electric vehicles.

‘Damn you!’

Before Shah took the job, his Generate colleagues told him accepting was a dumb idea unless he could make the office more efficient, he said in an interview at his Energy Department office, clad in his blue fleece vest and Stan Smith tennis shoes.

He outlined his demands, including provisions that would make it easier to lend to companies in the electric-vehicle supply chain. On a call with DOE officials, they agreed to all of his conditions, he said.

“I was like, ‘Damn you!’ ” he recalled.

He tripled the agency’s staff to roughly 250 and recruited debt experts from banks. He sought energy specialists such as Bill Magness, a former CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, that state’s power grid operator.

According to Magness, Shah invited him to meetings even before he agreed to join. “How could you not do it?” Shah told him, Magness said. Magness was a consultant for the office for a year before departing in 2022.

In April, Shah expanded on the rooftop-solar financing model he developed for his first company by improving access to loans for people with below-average credit scores. Through a $3 billion commitment to home-solar company Sunnova, the office would guarantee that even if some users default, many investors would be repaid. Shah is confident defaults will be low, and the backstop won’t be needed.

“If you have a normal government person coming into this spot, they’ll never think of something like that,” said Sunnova’s chief executive, John Berger.

The Loan Programs Office had largely been dormant since the second Obama term. The bulk of the office’s loans in the last decade went to utilities building the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, a nuclear power project in Georgia.

Shah’s tenure and the program’s aggressive lending could prove short-lived if Republicans win back the White House next year. In Congress, McMorris Rodgers has criticized the loan office’s high funding level and promised greater oversight. 

Shah says the government is more protected with today’s deals, through provisions that ensure the government will get some money back even if a borrower fails. The program has beefed up goals companies must meet before receiving funds.

The office’s default rate of 3% is comparable to the performance of loan portfolios of commercial banks, Shah has said. It has made money for the government over its lifetime.

All the loans need a series of approvals from a committee of senior Energy Department staff, as well as Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the White House Office of Management and Budget and the Treasury Department.

“If anyone can crack through some of the red tape, it’s a force of nature like Jigar,” said Scott Jacobs, who co-founded Generate Capital with Shah and one other person. “Yet I’m not sure anyone can get through all of the bureaucracy.”

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Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Ukraine says: Putin is planning a nuclear disaster.

These people live nearby…

Nadiya Hez, with her 1-year-old son, waits to fill her containers at a water truck last week in Tomakivka, Ukraine. Residents there have been without water since the Kakhovka dam breach earlier in June. (Heidi Levine for The Washington Post) / Editing by germán & co

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“The current state of water availability required for cooling the reactors and spent fuel at the plant poses a significant risk. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam has significantly exacerbated the situation and has heightened the probability of a nuclear meltdown.

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The Washington Post By Fredrick Kunkle and Kostiantyn Khudov, July 2, 2023 

TOMAKIVKA, Ukraine — The risk of a major disaster at the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant terrifies Nadiya Hez, who lives in an area that would probably take the brunt of any deadly radioactive fallout.

The nuclear plant has been in continual danger as Russian and Ukrainian troops trade fire in its vicinity, but the chance of a meltdown has increased sharply since the destruction of the Kakhovka dam just downstream. The June 6 breach unleashed a catastrophic flood and jeopardized the supply of water needed to cool the plant’s reactors and spent fuel.

But there have been so many horrors since Russia invaded last year that Hez and others in this Ukrainian town have responded to the threat of a nuclear disaster with a mix of dread and hardened fatalism.

Hez, who is a nurse, at least has iodine tablets on hand to mitigate the effects of radiation poisoning. After days of searching, she located a key to the root cellar outside their Soviet-era home that could serve as a crude fallout shelter for her, her husband and their 1-year-old son, Ihor, should radiation escape from the Russian-held nuclear power plant about 22 miles away. There has been little else to do except wait and focus on the daily hardships the war has already inflicted upon their lives.

“It’s horrible — I don’t even want to think about it,” Hez, 22, said while juggling her baby and several heavy water jugs from a charity’s roving tanker truck. The town’s municipal water system was knocked out when the dam went.

Warnings from Ukrainian officials and atomic energy experts about a potential disaster in southeastern Ukraine have gained urgency since the dam’s breach. Ukrainian officials accuse Russian forces of deliberately blowing up part of the dam, an allegation Moscow has denied.

What to know about Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

As far back as October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted that Russia would destroy the dam. Now, Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials have upped the tempo of warnings that Russian forces plan to sabotage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest such facility in Europe.

Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, who heads Ukraine’s military intelligence, said through a spokesman that Russians have planted explosives next to four of the six reactors and mined the cooling pond used to supply water to chill the reactors and spent fuel.

“There is an extremely high risk of human error or, given the amount of explosives, an accidental detonation,” spokesman Andriy Yusov said.

On Friday, the military intelligence agency issued an ominous update, saying that the three Russian supervisors had evacuated and Ukrainian employees signed to work for the Russian state nuclear power conglomerate should depart by July 5. The report also said that personnel remaining behind had been told to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies.”

Earlier this week, Ihor Klymenko, who heads the Ministry of Internal Affairs, announced training exercises at all levels of government to deal with a possible nuclear disaster. These have included planning for evacuations within a certain radius of the plant, road closures and the creation of checkpoints to screen people for radiation exposure.

For residents unable to evacuate in time, officials have urged sheltering in place, making sure to shut off ventilation and air conditioners and seal up windows with dampened cloth and tape. When outdoors, he said, people should wear masks that can filter out airborne radioactive dust and other particles.

IAEA chief pushes plan to secure nuclear plant ahead of Ukraine offensive

Klymenko and other officials have also urged the public to remain calm — advice that many Ukrainians seem to have taken to heart, despite their country’s history with Chernobyl, the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster, and nine years of violent conflict with Russia.

“People are already hardened, resilient,” said Yuriy Malashko, the head of the Zaporizhzhia region’s military administration.

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Water levels at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

Source: Energoatom / SAMUEL GRANADOS / THE WASHINGTON POST

Russian forces seized control of the nuclear power plant soon after President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion in February 2022. All six reactors have since been shut down.

The plant has had several close calls, including from repeated artillery strikes that cut the electric lines maintaining its cooling operations. It is now faced with a dwindling supply of water because of the dam breach.

After the construction of the plant in the 1980s, the reservoir of the Kakhovka dam was used to fill the holding pond cooling its reactors and spent fuel.

As of June 24, the pond’s water level stands at about 16 meters (52 feet) — only four meters above the minimum level necessary to cool the plant, said Olena Pareniuk, a senior researcher at Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences who has studied nuclear power plant disasters.

The situation led the International Atomic Energy Agency’s general director to conduct an emergency inspection of the nuclear plant days after the dam breach.

In a statement posted on the IAEA’s website, Rafael Mariano Grossi said the cooling pond is being replenished with water from a discharge channel at a nearby coal-fired power plant and from a drainage system fed by underground water. At the current rate of evaporation — about four inches a day, Grossi estimated that the plant has enough water for “many weeks.” He also said he saw no evidence it had been mined.

Just as concerning, however, is the added pressure on remaining Ukrainian staff, Pareniuk said. Perhaps only 3,000 of its 11,000 employees are left to oversee its operations — “barely enough” to keep the plant safe in a shutdown state and far too few for an emergency.

“The threat of a terrorist attack is high,” said a Ukrainian employee still working at the plant, whom The Washington Post is not naming to protect his safety. He said the plant has already reduced the amount of water used to cool the reactors — the hottest of which, according to Pareniuk, is still at about 536 degrees Fahrenheit even after being shut down.

Ukrainian officials and atomic energy experts warn that without sufficient cooling, a reactor’s core could overheat, allowing the buildup of an explosive mixture of hydrogen gas and steam that could rupture the containment structure and blow dangerous amounts of radiation into the air. The reactors could melt down within 10 hours or two weeks without water, Budanov said.

What could happen then? Pareniuk and other experts said it is unlikely to be anything like Chernobyl, which blew when the reactor was in active operation. She said the most likely worst-case scenario could be something on scale with the Fukushima disaster in 2011, when fuel in three of the Japanese nuclear plant’s four reactors melted down following a massive earthquake and tsunami.

If so, a poisonous cloud could spread across Ukraine, contaminating its agricultural heartland and probably drifting over European neighbors with radioactive particles that increase the risk of certain cancers. Radioactive contamination is likely to reach the Dnieper River, too, flowing into the Black Sea. Depending on water currents, the contamination could touch every country along the Black Sea’s shores, Pareniuk said. As a bio-radiologist, she understands in detail what that could mean for her and her 4-year-old child, though they live far away, west of the capital, Kyiv.

“I’m terrified,” she said.

So are many people in this small town, located at the edge of the potential 20-mile exclusion zone around the plant. That’s the radius of the no man’s land that still exists around the Chernobyl plant.

Even before the dam break, Hez had already been through a lot. She gave birth in a hospital bunker in Nikopol as Russian artillery pounded the city. Constant shelling there forced her and her husband, Oleksiy, 23, to relocate here with their baby, where they subsist on state assistance as displaced people and the parents of a child — about $135 a month.

Both have been contacted by the military’s draft officials, one of whom told her she would have to put her baby in the care of his grandmother or someone else because her services are needed.

“It’s like a horror movie,” said Vita Lyashenko, 47, a nurse waiting in line with about 50 other people to collect drinking water in the center of town. Like others, she has been gathering rainwater, recycling water for household chores and going longer without showers since the municipal water system went down after the dam breach. She has also set aside iodine tablets, extra water and tape to seal her windows against radioactive fallout.

Olena Mykytiuk, 59, who lives on disability while caring for her ailing husband, said she, too, has iodine pills but isn’t sure whether she wants to take them. She also worries about what might happen to her chickens.

“We don’t know how to prepare ourselves for radiation,” Mykytiuk said. “We are watching the news, and we know all they need to do is to press a button.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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A wind turbine is seen behind a streetlamp in Yokohama, Japan August 9, 2017. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Factbox: Japan aims to become major offshore wind energy producer

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) have made a firm commitment to generate 1.8 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy in four specified regions. They have substantially advanced in achieving this goal by successfully concluding the second phase of offshore wind tender processes. This statement highlights the Japanese government's dedication to achieving sustainable economic development and reducing emissions.

Reuters By Katya Golubkova and Yuka Obayashi / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

TOKYO, June 30 (Reuters) - Japan plans to become one of the world's top offshore wind energy producers, joining the likes of China and the United Kingdom, as it makes the transition to a zero-emission economy while also seeking greater energy security.

Japanese companies have offshore wind assets from Taiwan to Belgium and UK but are yet to build large-scale farms at home.

On Friday, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) finished accepting proposals for the second major round of offshore wind tenders to build 1.8 gigawatt (GW) capacity in four areas. Below are main facts about Japan's offshore wind sector.

CAPACITY

Japan had 136 megawatt (MW) of offshore wind capacity installed as of 2022, a fraction compared to nearly 14 GW in UK and 31 GW in China, according to Global Wind Energy Council.

It aims to have 10 GW by 2030 and up to 45 GW operational by 2040 as it wants renewables to provide 36% to 38% of its electricity mix by the end of this decade from around 20% now and has targeted becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

A Marubeni-led consortium (8002.T) launched Japan's first large-scale commercial offshore wind operations at Noshiro Port (84 MW) and Akita Port (55 MW) in late 2022 and early 2023.

SECOND ROUND

The government's auction for another 1.8 GW of capacity, conducted over six months, concluded on June 30. The winners will be announced by the end of March 2024, though they could be named as early as December.

It was auctioning four areas, all with bottom-fixed structures, in total:

- Happo Town and Noshiro City in Akita Prefecture (356 MW)

- Oga City, Katagami City and Akita City in Akita Prefecture (336 MW)

- Murakami City and Tainai City in Niigata Prefecture (700 MW)

- Enoshima, Saikai City in Nagasaki Prefecture (424 MW)

Under the revised rules, companies are not allowed to disclose whether they intend to bid.

JERA, Japan's top power generator, has said it was conducting environmental assessment procedures for Oga-Katagami-Akita project and Happo-Noshiro project.

Itochu Corp 8001.T, Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531.T and other companies are considering bidding for some of the projects, according to the Nikkei business daily.

FLOATING OFFSHORE

In 2021, the government selected a consortium of six companies led by Toda Corporation to build the 16.8 MW Goto floating offshore wind farm in Nagasaki prefecture. It was the only bidder in a public auction for the small project.

Japan is working to create a new roadmap for floating offshore wind power by the end of March 2024.

EXPERIENCE

Foreign companies are likely to need Japanese partners in order to participate in auctions as they would need to discuss plans with local authorities, fishermen and residents, whose opposition led to some wind power projects being scrapped in the past.

The UK wants to take part in developing Japan's offshore wind power via options ranging from the participation of its energy companies to providing financing and insurance, Energy Security Secretary Grant Shapps told Reuters in April.

At the time of the first round, a number of foreign companies, including Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO), Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE) and Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL), showed interest in entering the Japanese market.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Fatih Birol said European governments had made strategic mistakes, including an overreliance on Russia for energy. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty/ Editing by Germán & Co

International Energy Agency warns of higher bills this winter

Fatih Birol says China’s economic recovery combined with harsh winter could pile pressure on gas supplies

The Guardian, Alex Lawson, Mon 3 Jul 2023 

The head of the International Energy Agency has warned that energy prices may spike again this winter, forcing government to subsidise bills – just days after state support for UK households fell away.

Fatih Birol said a rapid improvement in the Chinese economy, coupled with a harsh winter, could put pressure on gas supplies and push up bills for consumers.

He said the agency “cannot rule out” another spike in gas prices this winter, which would mirror last year when a surge in wholesale costs as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fed through to huge consumer bills.

“In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets, and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers,” Birol told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

China’s economy had been bouncing back from Covid restrictions – pushing up demand for gas supplies – however, recent indicators suggest a slowdown. “We do not know yet how strongly the Chinese economy will rebound,” Birol said.

Last autumn the then prime minister, Liz Truss, was forced to step in to subsidise bills for households and consumers, and that support was extended in March to cap average bills at £2,500 from April to the end of June after demands from campaigners.

On Saturday, the Ofgem price cap fell to £2,074, in effect replacing the government energy price guarantee, although bills remain almost £1,000 more than two years ago.

Russia reduced supplies of gas into Europe last year, causing fears that power cuts may occur over the winter and sparking a huge effort to reduce consumption on the continent. The UK government belatedly introduced a campaign to encourage energy saving in December.

Birol said European governments had made “strategic mistakes”, including an overreliance on Russia for energy, and that foreign policy had been “blindfolded” by short-term commercial decisions.

Countries have made attempts to improve their ability to import gas from other countries and ramp up their renewable energy generation, but there are simmering fears that Vladimir Putin’s regime may decide to cut supplies of Russian gas into Europe this winter.

Birol said he “wouldn’t rule out blackouts” this winter as “part of the game”.

Last week, the chief executive of Centrica, the British Gas owner, said household energy bills were likely to remain high for the foreseeable future as wholesale market prices remain inflated.

Gas prices eased earlier this year as a relatively mild European winter reduced demand. However, prices have rallied in recent weeks, up 40% in June, amid fears over supplies this winter.

Month-ahead UK gas prices rose by almost 6% on Monday to 96.5p a therm.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin

“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…

Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday Putin has been "somewhat weakened" by an aborted mutiny and that now is the time for the United States to try to broker a negotiated peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

"I want people to stop dying over this ridiculous war," Trump told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Speaking expansively about foreign policy, the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination also said China should be given a 48-hour deadline to get out of what sources familiar with the matter say is a Chinese spy capability on the island of Cuba 90 miles (145 km) off the U.S. coast.

On Ukraine, Trump did not rule out that the Kyiv government might have to concede some territory to Russia in order to stop the war, which began with Russian forces invading Ukraine 16 months ago. He said everything would be "subject to negotiation", if he were president, but that Ukrainians who have waged a vigorous fight to defend their land have "earned a lot of credit."

"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO allies want Russia out of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that has made small gains in driving out Russian forces.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year proposed a 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all of its troops.

"I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace. You can do it," Trump said. "This is the time to do it, to get the two parties together to force peace."

As president, Trump developed friendly relations with Putin, who Biden said on Wednesday has "become a bit of pariah around the world" for invading Ukraine.

Trump said Putin had been damaged by an uprising by the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, last weekend.

"You could say that he's (Putin) still there, he's still strong, but he certainly has been I would say somewhat weakened at least in the minds of a lot of people," he said.

If Putin were no longer in power, however, "you don't know what the alternative is. It could be better, but it could be far worse," Trump said.

As for war crime charges levied against Putin by the International Criminal Court last March, Trump said Putin's fate should be discussed when the war is over "because right now if you bring that topic up you'll never make peace, you'll never make a settlement."

Trump was adamantly opposed to China's spy base on Cuba and said if Beijing refused to accept his 48-hour demand for shutting it down, a Trump administration would impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.

As president, Trump adopted a tougher stance on China while claiming a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping that soured over the coronavirus pandemic.

"I'd give them 48 hours to get out. And if they didn't get out, I'd charge them a 100% tariff on everything they sell to the United States, and they'd be gone within two days. They'd be gone within one hour," Trump said.

Trump was mum on whether the United States would support Taiwan militarily if China invaded the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

"I don't talk about that. And the reason I don't is because it would hurt my negotiating position," he said. "All I can tell you is for four years, there was no threat. And it wouldn't happen if I were president."

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“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 〰️

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Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

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Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023

The cruel war that we had to live through during the later phases of the initial wave of the pandemic until the present day has had a profound impact on our endeavors and has destabilized our emotional state. An unprecedented inflationary phenomenon has had a detrimental impact on the most vulnerable members of our society, exacerbating their already marginalized status. We may have inadvertently overlooked the presence of the Covid-19 virus as a result of the exceptional circumstances surrounding this time.

On June 15 and yesterday, “Nebraska Medicine” and “The New York Times” reported that more than 9,747 patients are hospitalized in the United States per week, with 16% of those being ICU patients. The test positivity rate for the week of June 2-8 was 7.2%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. Still, since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.

According to a study published in “Plos Pathogens” by the University of Kent (England) on Friday, 17 November 2019, the initial identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurred in Wuhan, China. The composition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is relatively uncomplicated, consisting of proteins and nucleic acids. It is important to acknowledge that the replication of this virus is contingent upon its ability to exploit the metabolic processes of specific living cells.

One of the most notable consequences resulting from the global outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic is the profound transformation in human emotional behavior. This —-diminutive—- organism evoked a profound sense of fear, a stark reminder of the prevailing sense of isolation and detachment within our technologically advanced society.

In the current digital age, which is marked by the widespread use of technology and online connectivity, traditional forms of displaying affection, such as physical touch and face-to-face interactions, have been replaced by virtual representations and a constant online presence.

The absence of interpersonal interaction can have detrimental consequences on our general state of health, and in severe instances, it may even lead to our demise.

The prevailing state of health can be ascribed to an alleged human mistake that occurred in a laboratory located in the distant province of Wuhan, China, which is widely recognized for its rich historical heritage spanning thousands of years.

The implications of these unknow living conditions extend beyond the scope of human sensory perception and have profound implications for the industrial sector. The mandated restriction on individuals' mobility has impeded their capacity to travel to their workplaces, resulting in a scarcity of crucial raw materials and components. Consequently, the interruption in the production chain impedes its efficient operation, leading to a shortage of crucial commodities necessary for the sustenance of human life.

Furthermore, the insufficient accessibility of crucial goods and the exorbitant expenses linked to global maritime transportation contribute to the prevalence of inflation, a deleterious phenomenon. Additionally, it is anticipated that the inflation rate will attain a minimum of 18% during the last three years. The management of the national economy and household budgets presents significant challenges during the prevailing financial crisis.

Rapid adaptability to change has traditionally been regarded as a commendable human quality…

Why does this phenomenon manifest itself?

The answer to this inquiry is uncomplicated. Human existence does not persist in a perpetual state of either joy or sorrow, nor is it exclusively characterized by a state of stability or instability. Fortunately, life is not defined by such a simplistic nature. On the contrary, the trajectory of life is distinguished by its complex and intricate nature, encompassing a myriad of encounters and mis encounters, along with moments of affection and aversion.

In conclusion, human existence is constantly confronted with unforeseen and profound transformations. As inherently human beings, we possess an innate sense of solidarity within our essence. This sense of community and togetherness helps us navigate the challenges that life throws our way.

The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, also known as Teresa de Cepeda y Ahumada, a nun who devoted her life to praying for the most vulnerable five centuries ago and was later canonized, profoundly influenced the Wollmer family, owners of Hacienda Santa Teresa, situated in the mountainous Aragua Valley, the heart of Venezuela's sugar industry, they were deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, Long before the inception of the corporate social responsibility trend.

“Santa Teresa” represents the most ancient rum brand in Venezuela. The Hacienda Santa Teresa, the site of rum production, has a historical origin dating back to 1796. The Hacienda initially operated as a cultivator of coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane. The production of rum started in 1830 and has continued ever since, despite the company's acknowledgment of various adversities such as war, revolutions, invasions, dictators, and the current pandemic.

The company produces several rum expressions, but only one of them, namely “Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum”, is designated for exportation. This expression was first release in 1996 to commemorate the Hacienda's bicentennial. Bacardi Ltd oversees the international management of this one-of-a-kind.

Botlle Waxing / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:

Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression.

The offer was accepted, leading to the establishment of Project “Alcatraz”. Since its creation, Project “Alcatraz” has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating those involved in criminal gangs. This program utilizes various strategies, including vocational training, values formation, psychological counselling, formal education, and participation in rugby, to reintegrate these individuals into society. To date, the program has witnessed the participation of numerous young people.

In the summer of 2020, during the hell of the pandemic, following its longstanding commitment to community assistance, the company introduced a “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry. “Santa Teresa” employed a group of 25 bartenders to undertake the task of designing the label for the “Special Edition” expression, starting with Liana Oster, a bartender at the “Dante Bar “ in New York, every participant in the study contributed to the development the brand and subsequently handed it over to the following participant in the sequence. 

Project “Alcatraz” / Image courtesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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News round-up, June 30, 2023

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023

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Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military / Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels? / Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 〰️

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Community engagement…

“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, has always been dedicated to helping those in need. Their commitment to community engagement is remarkable through their notable initiative, Project "Alcatraz." In addition, during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020, Santa Teresa stepped up with their "Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle" as a response to the adverse effects of COVID-19 on the hospitality industry. It's inspiring to see a brand like Santa Teresa offering hope to the most vulnerable and positively impacting their community…

Germán & Co

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Most read…

Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military

Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?

Washington Post by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 

EU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns

The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.

REUTERS By Kate Abnett / Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…

The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023

Canadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts

Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.

Reuters By Brendan O'Brien, Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin

“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…

Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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A view of the Kremlin in Moscow. (Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock) / editing by Germán & Co

Cyberattack knocks out satellite communications for Russian military

Was it pro-Ukrainian hackers or Wagner rebels?

Reuters by Joseph Menn, June 30, 2023 

A satellite communications system serving the Russian military was knocked offline by a cyberattack late Wednesday and remained mostly down on Thursday, in an incident reminiscent of an attack on a similar system used by Ukraine at the start of the war between the countries.

Dozor-Teleport, the satellite system’s operator, switched some users to terrestrial networks during the outage, according to JD Work, a cyberspace professor at the National Defense University. Analyst Doug Madory of Kentik, which monitors online traffic, said one network was taken over by Dozor’s parent company, Amtel-Svyaz, while three others remained down.

The company did not release a statement on what had gone wrong. At least two groups claimed responsibility for the attack, one describing itself as a hacktivist organization and the other as part of the Wagner Group, the mercenaries who mutinied last week and marched most of the way to Moscow. The hackers claimed to have sent malicious software to the satellite terminals, setting off a scramble among security experts to obtain a terminal for testing.

Hacking Russia was off-limits. The Ukraine war made it a free-for-all.

Multiple self-proclaimed hacktivists have attacked websites and critical infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine since the war began, but many of them coordinate with or are cover for military forces, according to sources familiar with their efforts.

A connection to Wagner could be faked to promote more division in Russia. A real one would be more interesting, showing that the mutinous actions may continue in cyberspace even if they have stopped on Earth.

Though Work said local market researchers estimated that the satellite arm of the company only has $10 million in annual revenue, it serves the Russian military and other federal services. Work said reporting elsewhere showed that its customers include Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

The impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration and whether the customers had other means to communicate that are reliable and secure. For many, satellite communications are the backup, while military units on the move could find it more vital.

“It’s doubtful this is crippling, unless there happened to be customers for whom this is their only connectivity option,” said Brian Weeden, a director at Secure World Foundation, a Washington think tank focused on space issues.

War in space: U.S. officials debating rules for a conflict in orbit

Ukraine has in the past been able to intercept Russian soldiers’ communications when they did not use a satellite service.

Satellite hacks are rare and are disclosed even more rarely. The attack on Viasat service used by the Ukraine military and others in February 2022 has been seen as one of the most successful hacking attacks of the war. SpaceX’s Starlink service became a vital alternative inside the country, and it has withstood multiple hacking attempts since then.

The Viasat hack was attributed by experts to Russia’s military intelligence arm, the GRU. But Wagner mercenaries could have worked closely enough with the GRU to have picked up techniques used in that attack. If so, it would have been easier for them to turn around and use it against Russia’s Dozor.

“There are a variety of scenarios where this capability, in a confused and uncertain post-mutiny environment, could have been brought to the front,” Work said.

A U.S. military spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. A person familiar with Western operations supporting Ukraine in cyberspace said it was not clear who was behind the latest attack.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Smoke bellow from the chimneys of Belchatow Power Station, Europe's largest biggest coal-fired power plant, in this May 7, 2009 POLAND-BELCHATOW//File Photo / Editing By Germán & Co

EU to propose exit from Energy Charter Treaty over climate concerns

The Energy Charter Treaty was established in 1998 to advance investments in the energy sector. Fifty countries, including the European Union member states, have signed it. However, lately, there have been growing concerns about the treaty. It has allowed energy companies to take legal action against governments for policies that negatively impact their investments.

REUTERS By Kate Abnett / Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

BRUSSELS, June 29 (Reuters) - The European Commission is readying a proposal for EU countries to jointly quit an international energy treaty, after some governments already pledged to leave over climate concerns.

The 1998 Energy Charter Treaty, which has around 50 signatories including European Union countries, lets energy companies sue governments over policies that damage their investments - a system initially designed to support investments in the sector.

But in recent years it has been used to challenge policies that require fossil fuel plants to shut, raising concerns in some European capitals that it is an obstacle to addressing climate change.

A Commission spokesperson told Reuters it will make legal proposals for a coordinated EU exit "in the coming weeks", after EU countries - some of which already plan to exit the treaty - could not agree to pass reforms to it.

"As it stands, the treaty is not in line with the EU’s investment policy and law and with the EU's energy and climate goals," the spokesperson said.

Four sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters the EU executive will make the proposal next week. Three of the sources said Brussels had considered a partial exit that would let some countries stay in the treaty, but opted against it over legal concerns.

Pressure has mounted on Brussels to lead an EU-wide exit after Denmark, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain announced they planned to quit the treaty. Italy left in 2016.

But the proposal is likely to be opposed by countries including Cyprus, Hungary and Slovakia, which have said they would prefer to stay in an updated version of the accord.

Any proposal will need backing from a reinforced majority of member states and support from the European Parliament, which has publicly backed the idea.

"A coordinated withdrawal would remove one of the main obstacles to realising the EU's binding climate targets," said Lukas Schaugg, an analyst at the International Institute for Sustainable Development think tank.

Treaty signatories last year negotiated reforms designed to address some of the climate concerns, but which received a mixed reception from EU countries and criticism from campaigners. The reforms would struggle to pass without EU support.

The unreformed treaty has a "sunset clause" that would protect existing fossil fuel investments in Europe for 20 years even after the EU quit. The reformed version would let the EU shorten that to 10 years.

Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image couetesy of Santa Teresa Editing by Germán & Co

Inspired by the noble soul of Saint Teresa Of Avila…

“Santa Teresa, Venezuela's oldest and most well-known global rum brand, offers hope to the most vulnerable…

The brand's commitment to community engagement is remarkable, primarily through its notable initiative, Project “Alcatraz” and during the challenging times of the pandemic in 2020 whit the iniative “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry.

By Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden, June 30, 2023

The cruel war that we had to live through during the later phases of the initial wave of the pandemic until the present day has had a profound impact on our endeavors and has destabilized our emotional state. An unprecedented inflationary phenomenon has had a detrimental impact on the most vulnerable members of our society, exacerbating their already marginalized status. We may have inadvertently overlooked the presence of the Covid-19 virus as a result of the exceptional circumstances surrounding this time.

On June 15 and yesterday, “Nebraska Medicine” and “The New York Times” reported that more than 9,747 patients are hospitalized in the United States per week, with 16% of those being ICU patients. The test positivity rate for the week of June 2-8 was 7.2%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. Still, since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.

According to a study published in “Plos Pathogens” by the University of Kent (England) on Friday, 17 November 2019, the initial identification of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurred in Wuhan, China. The composition of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is relatively uncomplicated, consisting of proteins and nucleic acids. It is important to acknowledge that the replication of this virus is contingent upon its ability to exploit the metabolic processes of specific living cells.

One of the most notable consequences resulting from the global outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic is the profound transformation in human emotional behavior. This —-diminutive—- organism evoked a profound sense of fear, a stark reminder of the prevailing sense of isolation and detachment within our technologically advanced society.

In the current digital age, which is marked by the widespread use of technology and online connectivity, traditional forms of displaying affection, such as physical touch and face-to-face interactions, have been replaced by virtual representations and a constant online presence.

The absence of interpersonal interaction can have detrimental consequences on our general state of health, and in severe instances, it may even lead to our demise.

The prevailing state of health can be ascribed to an alleged human mistake that occurred in a laboratory located in the distant province of Wuhan, China, which is widely recognized for its rich historical heritage spanning thousands of years.

The implications of these unknow living conditions extend beyond the scope of human sensory perception and have profound implications for the industrial sector. The mandated restriction on individuals' mobility has impeded their capacity to travel to their workplaces, resulting in a scarcity of crucial raw materials and components. Consequently, the interruption in the production chain impedes its efficient operation, leading to a shortage of crucial commodities necessary for the sustenance of human life.

Furthermore, the insufficient accessibility of crucial goods and the exorbitant expenses linked to global maritime transportation contribute to the prevalence of inflation, a deleterious phenomenon. Additionally, it is anticipated that the inflation rate will attain a minimum of 18% during the last three years. The management of the national economy and household budgets presents significant challenges during the prevailing financial crisis.

Rapid adaptability to change has traditionally been regarded as a commendable human quality…

Why does this phenomenon manifest itself?

The answer to this inquiry is uncomplicated. Human existence does not persist in a perpetual state of either joy or sorrow, nor is it exclusively characterized by a state of stability or instability. Fortunately, life is not defined by such a simplistic nature. On the contrary, the trajectory of life is distinguished by its complex and intricate nature, encompassing a myriad of encounters and mis encounters, along with moments of affection and aversion.

In conclusion, human existence is constantly confronted with unforeseen and profound transformations. As inherently human beings, we possess an innate sense of solidarity within our essence. This sense of community and togetherness helps us navigate the challenges that life throws our way.

The teachings and spirituality of Saint Teresa of Avila, also known as Teresa de Cepeda y Ahumada, a nun who devoted her life to praying for the most vulnerable five centuries ago and was later canonized, profoundly influenced the Wollmer family, owners of Hacienda Santa Teresa, situated in the mountainous Aragua Valley, the heart of Venezuela's sugar industry, they were deeply moved by her teachings and spiritual beliefs, Long before the inception of the corporate social responsibility trend.

“Santa Teresa” represents the most ancient rum brand in Venezuela. The Hacienda Santa Teresa, the site of rum production, has a historical origin dating back to 1796. The Hacienda initially operated as a cultivator of coffee, cocoa, and sugarcane. The production of rum started in 1830 and has continued ever since, despite the company's acknowledgment of various adversities such as war, revolutions, invasions, dictators, and the current pandemic.

The company produces several rum expressions, but only one of them, namely “Santa Teresa 1796 Solera Rum”, is designated for exportation. This expression was first release in 1996 to commemorate the Hacienda's bicentennial. Bacardi Ltd oversees the international management of this one-of-a-kind.

The brand has a long history of community involvement. The organization's most renowned endeavour is the ongoing Project “Alcatraz”. In 2003, a criminal gang unlawfully entered the Hacienda premises and launched a surprise attack on a security guard. When apprehended, the perpetrators were presented with an unconventional option:

Either surrender to the authorities or engage in labour at the Hacienda to restate their transgression.

The offer was accepted, leading to the establishment of Project “Alcatraz”. Since its creation, Project “Alcatraz” has evolved into a comprehensive initiative dedicated to recruiting and rehabilitating those involved in criminal gangs. This program utilizes various strategies, including vocational training, values formation, psychological counselling, formal education, and participation in rugby, to reintegrate these individuals into society. To date, the program has witnessed the participation of numerous young people.

In the summer of 2020, during the hell of the pandemic, following its longstanding commitment to community assistance, the company introduced a “Limited Edition Crafted Together Bottle” as a response to the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the hospitality industry. “Santa Teresa” employed a group of 25 bartenders to undertake the task of designing the label for the “Special Edition” expression, starting with Liana Oster, a bartender at the “Dante Bar “ in New York, every participant in the study contributed to the development the brand and subsequently handed it over to the following participant in the sequence.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Pittsburgh's Duquesne Incline ascends Mount Washington as smoke, from Canadian wildfires, hanging over the U.S. Midwest and parts of the East Coast create hazy skies, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. June 28, 2023. REUTERS/Quinn Glabicki / Editing by Germán & Co

Canadian wildfire smoke spreads, 100 million Americans under air-quality alerts

Air-quality alerts lasted until midnight for several states, including Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. The alerts also extended to New York, Washington, and the East Coast.

Reuters By Brendan O'Brien, Editing by Germán & Co, June 29, 2023

CHICAGO, June 29 (Reuters) - Murky, dull skies loomed over tens of millions of Americans on Thursday as smoke from prolonged Canadian wildfires drifted across the Midwest and East, causing unhealthy and, in some spots, dangerous conditions.

Air-quality alerts were in effect until midnight for a swath of the United States that extended from Wisconsin and northern Illinois stretching through Michigan and Ohio and extending into New York, Washington and the East Coast, the National Weather Service said.

More than 100 million Americans were urged to limit prolonged outdoor activities, and, if needed, wear a mask if they suffer from pulmonary or respiratory diseases. Children and the elderly were also advised to minimize or avoid strenuous activities.

People living in major U.S. cities such as New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia saw smoky skies that dulled the summer sun as the smell of burning wood lingered in the air.

"Air quality is unhealthy in every corner of the state," New York Governor Kathy Hochul said during a morning press conference, recommending that residents regularly check the air quality in their area. "This is the new normal for New Yorkers."

On Thursday morning, smoke hung over Chicago for the third day in a row. The air quality was "Unhealthy" in the third-largest city in the United States, which was joined by Detroit and Washington D.C. as having the poorest air among major cities on the planet, according to IQAir.com, which tracks pollution.

"The air quality in Chicago has been dreadful, giving me brutal migraines. Feeling better today with my trusty air purifier on full blast. Taking a chill day," said a Twitter user named Skaar.

The air-quality alerts were triggered by drifting smoke from wildfires burning in Canada, which is wrestling with its worst-ever start to wildfire season.

An area of 8 million hectares (19.8 million acres), bigger than West Virginia, has already burned. On Wednesday, there were 477 active blazes, about half which were considered out of control, spread from the Pacific to the Atlantic coasts.

While poor air quality was the concern in the Midwest and East, the U.S. South was again dealing with a brutal heat wave that promised to persist throughout the day on Thursday and into the long Fourth of July holiday weekend.

The heat index - which measures how hot it feels due to the combination of humidity and temperature - was expected to climb to 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) and in some spots as high as 115 degrees F (46 C). The weather service urged people to seek air-conditioned spaces and drink plenty of water.

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan June 28, 2019. Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS/File Photo / Editing by Germán & Co

Exclusive: Trump says aborted mutiny 'somewhat weakened' Putin

“According to someone I heard, Putin is still in power and considered a strong leader by many, but some believe his influence has waned. The unknown alternative could either be an improvement or a step backwards if he were to step down. I can't say for sure. The president said…

Reuters By Steve Holland and Nathan Layne / Editing by Germán & Co, June 30, 2023

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday Putin has been "somewhat weakened" by an aborted mutiny and that now is the time for the United States to try to broker a negotiated peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

"I want people to stop dying over this ridiculous war," Trump told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Speaking expansively about foreign policy, the front-runner in opinion polls for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination also said China should be given a 48-hour deadline to get out of what sources familiar with the matter say is a Chinese spy capability on the island of Cuba 90 miles (145 km) off the U.S. coast.

On Ukraine, Trump did not rule out that the Kyiv government might have to concede some territory to Russia in order to stop the war, which began with Russian forces invading Ukraine 16 months ago. He said everything would be "subject to negotiation", if he were president, but that Ukrainians who have waged a vigorous fight to defend their land have "earned a lot of credit."

"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he said.

U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO allies want Russia out of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive that has made small gains in driving out Russian forces.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last year proposed a 10-point peace plan, which calls on Russia to withdraw all of its troops.

"I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace. You can do it," Trump said. "This is the time to do it, to get the two parties together to force peace."

As president, Trump developed friendly relations with Putin, who Biden said on Wednesday has "become a bit of pariah around the world" for invading Ukraine.

Trump said Putin had been damaged by an uprising by the Russian mercenary force, the Wagner Group, and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, last weekend.

"You could say that he's (Putin) still there, he's still strong, but he certainly has been I would say somewhat weakened at least in the minds of a lot of people," he said.

If Putin were no longer in power, however, "you don't know what the alternative is. It could be better, but it could be far worse," Trump said.

As for war crime charges levied against Putin by the International Criminal Court last March, Trump said Putin's fate should be discussed when the war is over "because right now if you bring that topic up you'll never make peace, you'll never make a settlement."

Trump was adamantly opposed to China's spy base on Cuba and said if Beijing refused to accept his 48-hour demand for shutting it down, a Trump administration would impose new tariffs on Chinese goods.

As president, Trump adopted a tougher stance on China while claiming a good relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping that soured over the coronavirus pandemic.

"I'd give them 48 hours to get out. And if they didn't get out, I'd charge them a 100% tariff on everything they sell to the United States, and they'd be gone within two days. They'd be gone within one hour," Trump said.

Trump was mum on whether the United States would support Taiwan militarily if China invaded the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

"I don't talk about that. And the reason I don't is because it would hurt my negotiating position," he said. "All I can tell you is for four years, there was no threat. And it wouldn't happen if I were president."

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News round-up, June 29, 2023

Quote of the day…

European EV makers are overtaking Tesla - but weak consumer demand is a drag

“Volkswagen sold more electric cars than Tesla in Europe last year in a key sign legacy carmakers have caught up on the California firm's head start - but Joachim Klement of Liberum Capital told Reuters margins are being squeezed across the industry.

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Most read…

Big Oil Mulls a Slippery Future

Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions

NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined

The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023

Explainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence

Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.

REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023

Wagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft. 

With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.

The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOW

Humans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped

Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says

The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023

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At the COA Spring Gala 2023, Andrés Gluski, the CEO & President of AES and Chairman of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, presented President Lacalle Pou with the prestigious Gold Insigne. This award was given in recognition of President Lacalle Pou's outstanding leadership in successfully transforming Uruguay into a prominent technology and innovation hub, all while upholding a thriving democracy and robust economy.

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Image editing by Germán & Co

Big Oil Mulls a Slippery Future

Ask energy executives how much oil the world will need by 2050 and you will get very different opinions

NYT By Carol Ryan, June 29, 2023 

Some people in the oil business insist that demand for the fuel will stay steady for decades. PHOTO: ELI HARTMAN/ASSOCIATED PRESS

When is it game over for oil? Don’t expect a clear answer from the people with the most to lose from a shift to cleaner fuels.

Within energy circles, estimates of how much oil will be needed in 2050 range anywhere from 80% less than today to business as usual. Investors have the difficult job of betting which companies are on the wrong side of the most important trend for the sector in decades. 

At an energy conference this week, Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, repeated the cartel’s view that global demand for oil will hit 110 million barrels a day by 2045—as far out as OPEC currently projects. This is roughly a 10% increase from current rates. Natural gas, renewable power and hydrogen will all play bigger roles, but oil will remain center stage.

If OPEC is right, it is bad news for efforts to limit climate change. For the world to reach its net-zero target and restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, demand must fall below 30 million barrels a day by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency. 

Most U.S. majors are also in the “high demand” camp, according to Alexander Schay, managing director at the energy consulting firm WK Associates and co-author of a Securities and Exchange Commission comment that compiled 2050 oil forecasts. 

Exxon Mobil said in a recent filing that the chances of the world getting to net zero are low because of the drop in living standards it would cause. The company expects global oil demand to still be roughly 100 million barrels a day by 2050 and is betting that technologies such as carbon capture and storage, as well as methane abatement, will allow the world to use fossil fuels for decades to come.  

European oil producers are considering the possibility that events move faster. Shell’s latest energy security report looks at two scenarios. Even with no new climate policies, it thinks demand for oil will fall around 10% by the middle of the century. And it sees a plunge if the world gets really serious about reducing emissions. 

BP has looked at two “what if” scenarios in addition to the most aggressive net-zero one. It estimates that oil production will decline by roughly 25% based on trends it is already seeing in the market, or close to 60% in its “accelerated” scenario in which climate regulations get tighter. 

But neither European company is seriously preparing for these challenging outcomes yet. Both Shell and BP recently reversed plans to cut oil production aggressively this decade, indicating that they will reduce supply once demand from customers tails off.

With demand for oil still growing, higher projections do look more realistic right now. The risk for executives hoping this won’t change is that they are wrong-footed by harsher regulations, wild-card technologies or a surge in destructive weather events that hammers home the need to cut emissions fast.

All of this underlines the intense uncertainty that energy bosses face, even looking a few years ahead. At Shell’s investor day this month, Chief Executive Wael Sawan told shareholders, “I would be lying to you if I pretended to know where various markets that we’re looking at are going to go in the 2026, 2027, 2028 period.”

One important swing factor that investors can watch is how fast oil demand for road transportation falls. This will depend on how fuel-efficient gas-engined cars become and how many drivers buy electric vehicles. EVs currently make up 16% of passenger-car sales globally. The data provider EV-volumes.com expects this share to rise rapidly to 68% by 2035.

Adoption will take longer if electric cars remain unaffordable for many consumers, which depends in part on supplies of battery materials such as lithium. It is also unclear whether creaking electricity infrastructure can cope with the level of electrification needed to wean the world off fossil fuels. Bottlenecks in supply chains and permitting are delaying installments of new wind and solar power capacity, especially in Europe.

Another trend to watch is whether rising demand for energy in emerging markets can be offset with efficiency measures, such as LED lighting or more efficient air conditioners. And it isn’t just energy: As the middle classes swell, consumers are likely to spend more on packaged goods. That will send demand for oil-based inputs to make virgin plastic soaring, barring better recycling rates or bans on single-use plastic.

Shareholders don’t look convinced by arguments that oil still has a long road ahead. According to the investment research firm New Constructs, the share prices of Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Chevron all imply that the companies’ profits will permanently decline from today’s levels.

The overall impression is of an oil industry in limbo, waiting to see what happens next.

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…”We proudly announce that several AES companies have been certified as Great Places to Work, including AES El Salvador, AES Dominicana, AES México, AES Panamá, and AES Puerto Rico. AES Servicios América ranked 3rd in the Great Place to Work for Women Argentina 2023. We're committed to providing an inclusive and empowering work environment for all, and our employees are our most valuable asset. Let's collaborate for a brighter, cleaner, and more sustainable future.

Ricardo Manuel Falú

Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer and President, New Energy Technologies SBU

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Kela photovoltaic power station on the Yalong River in Garzê Tibetan autonomous prefecture, China. Photograph: China News Service

China on course to hit wind and solar power target five years ahead of time

Beijing bolstering position as global renewables leader with solar capacity more than rest of world combined

The Guardian, Amy Hawkins and Rachel Cheung, 29 Jun 2023

China is shoring up its position as the world leader in renewable power and potentially outpacing its own ambitious energy targets, a report has found.

China is set to double its capacity and produce 1,200 gigawatts of energy through wind and solar power by 2025, reaching its 2030 goal five years ahead of time, according to the report by Global Energy Monitor, a San Francisco-based NGO that tracks operating utility-scale wind and solar farms as well as future projects in the country.

It says that as of the first quarter of the year, China’s utility-scale solar capacity has reached 228GW, more than that of the rest of the world combined. The installations are concentrated in the country’s north and north-west provinces, such as Shanxi, Xinjiang and Hebei.

‘Insanely cheap energy’: how solar power continues to shock the world

In addition, the group identified solar farms under construction that could add another 379GW in prospective capacity, triple that of the US and nearly double that of Europe.

China has also made huge strides in wind capacity: its combined onshore and offshore capacity now surpasses 310GW, double its 2017 level and roughly equivalent to the next top seven countries combined. With new projects in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu and along coastal areas, China is on course to add another 371GW before 2025, increasing the global wind fleet by nearly half.

“This new data provides unrivalled granularity about China’s jaw-dropping surge in solar and wind capacity,” said Dorothy Mei, a project manager at Global Energy Monitor. “As we closely monitor the implementation of prospective projects, this detailed information becomes indispensable in navigating the country’s energy landscape.”

The findings are in line with previous reports and government data released this year, which predicted that China could easily surpass its target of supplying a third of its power consumption through renewable sources by 2030.

China’s green energy drive is part of its effort to meet dual carbon goals set out in 2020. As the world’s second largest economy, it is the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and accounts for half of the world’s coal consumption. The Chinese president, Xi Jinping, pledged in 2020 to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

A coal-fired power plant in Shanghai. China approved more coal power in the first three months of 2023 than in the whole of 2021. Photograph: Aly Song/Reuters

The report attributed China’s remarkable progress in expanding its non-fossil energy sources to the range of policies its government has implemented, including generous subsidies to incentivise developers as well as regulations to put pressure on provincial governments and generating companies.

China began operating the world’s largest hybrid solar-hydro power plant in the Tibetan plateau on Sunday. Named Kela, the plant can produce 2bn kW hours of electricity annually, equal to the energy consumption of more than 700,000 households.

It is only the first phase of a massive clean energy project in the Yalong River basin. The installation has a 20GW capacity now and is expected to reach about 50GW by 2030.

Despite China’s careful planning, its energy transition is not without its challenges. In recent years, record heatwaves and drought crippled hydropower stations, resulting in power crunches that brought factories to a halt. An outdated electricity grid and inflexibility in transferring energy between regions add to the uncertainty.

The Kela plant is located in the sparsely populated west of the country, where more than three-quarters of coal, wind and solar power is generated. But the vast majority of energy consumption happens in the east. Transporting energy thousands of miles across the country results in inefficiencies.

The way China’s grid is organised can incentivise building coal plants around renewable generators. Much of the new renewable capacity is not connected to the local energy supply and often bundled with coal power to be transmitted to areas of higher demand.

More coal power was approved in the first three months of 2023 than in the whole of 2021.

“China is making strides,” said Martin Weil, a researcher at Global Energy Monitor and an author of the report. “But with coal still holding sway as the dominant power source, the country needs bolder advancements in energy storage and green technologies for a secure energy future.”

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Image: Germán & Co

Cooperate with objective and ethical thinking…

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Image by Germán & Co

Explainer: Why the wind power industry has hit turbulence

Is more than evident how unforeseen events can quickly disrupt promising positive trends. The wind power sector is going through a —-perfect storm—- has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in disruptions to the supply chain and project construction delays. Additionally, certain companies have lost government support or subsidies because they failed to meet policy deadlines. This has further complicated the already challenging financing environment. Factors such as increasing energy prices, inflation, and rising interest rates have made securing funding for these projects harder.

REUTERS By Nina Chestney/Editing by Germán & Co, June 26, 2023

LONDON, June 26 (Reuters) - Problems in Siemens Energy's (ENR1n.DE) wind turbine division that could cost more than a billion euros ($1.09 billion) to fix have shaken investor confidence in the wider industry and last week prompted a sell-off in wind companies' shares.

Over the last two decades, the industry has grown fast, lowered technology costs to on a par or even cheaper than fossil fuels in some parts of the world and increased efficiency through bigger and bigger turbines.

According to the Statistical Review of World Energy report on Monday, global wind and solar power grew to a record share of 12% of power generation last year, surpassing nuclear.

The Global Wind Energy Council said earlier this year that a record 680 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy capacity is expected to be installed by 2027.

But the industry has had a tough few years.

SUPPLY CHAIN

The COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 led to lockdowns, decreased industrial activity and reduced global energy demand.

In the wind sector, as in other industries, restrictions on movement triggered supply chain disruption and delays in project construction.

Limits on the number of workers allowed on site and delays in components from China and elsewhere meant that some wind developers had to delay or even cancel projects.

Some firms also missed policy deadlines that meant that they lost out on government support or subsidies for which they previously qualified, the International Energy Agency said.

The war in Ukraine has also created logistics and supply chain issues, aggravated in some cases by the impact of sanctions.

ECONOMICS

Despite mounting pressure to combat climate change by moving to renewable sources, financing projects has been a challenge.

The war in Ukraine last year led to higher energy prices and this fuelled rises in inflation and interest rates.

But the expected revenues of those planning to build wind turbines have not risen in tandem. Many governments index the prices paid for wind energy, usually through auctions, which are often too low, analysts at Wood Mackenzie said.

The rise in commodity prices, such as steel, also increased the price of wind turbines by up to 40% over the last two years, industry body WindEurope said earlier this year.

Wind turbine manufacturers - unable to pass on higher costs to customers who placed orders two or three years ago - have tried to mitigate the impact of higher inflation and pressure on profit margins by raising prices.

COMPETITION

As more governments have announced ambitious climate targets, pressure on companies to increase renewables development has increased.

Established wind manufacturers, already competing with each other to drive down component and technology costs and increase wind farms' efficiency with huge turbines, also face new entrants.

Traditional wind project developers, such as utilities, increasingly face competition from oil and gas majors seeking to diversify their portfolios, who have often outbid them in wind tenders and auctions.

Some oil and gas companies, however, are also struggling with poor returns from renewables while oil and gas profits have hit record levels in response to high energy prices.

COMPONENTS

Among the issues which arise from operating wind turbines, wear and tear on turbine blades over time can lead to erosion.

The increasing size of blades on turbines also raises the risk of lightning strikes and repairs.

For offshore wind, harsh weather conditions can also result in corrosion of foundations or of the turbine.

Leading wind turbine maker Vestas flagged quality issues with turbine blades in their onshore fleet in 2020 and provided an extra 600 million euros to fix them. Its shares fell more than 6% on Friday, while shares in Siemens Energy, the second biggest wind turbine maker, sank 37%.

Most of the problems of Siemens Energy's wind unit Siemens Gamesa concern its onshore turbine fleet, where the group has discovered quality issues in certain components, including rotor blades and bearings.

Siemens Energy said that 15%-30% of the fleet could be affected by the problems, which were exposed during a review that noted "abnormal vibration behaviour of some components" and unspecified problems around product design.

Dealing with issues could cost more than 1 billion euros, it said.

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Seaboard: pioneers in power generation in the country…

…“More than 32 years ago, back in January 1990, Seaboard began operations as the first independent power producer (IPP) in the Dominican Republic. They became pioneers in the electricity market by way of the commercial operations of Estrella del Norte, a 40MW floating power generation plant and the first of three built for Seaboard by Wärtsilä.

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Image by The Telegraph editing by Germán & Co

Wagner shot down 'special' Russian aircraft. 

With only 12 planes in its fleet, the Russian military may have to decrease its tasking levels to ensure the remaining aircraft's safety. In high-tempo operations, this loss may affect Russia's ability to coordinate and command its forces.

The Telegrpah / Editing by Germán & Co, NOW

According to an exclusive note, post of “The Telegraph” 29 minutes ago, the British Ministry of Defence has said that one of the Russian warplanes reportedly shot down during the Wagner rebellion was a "special mission aircraft" with a critical role in Russia's war in Ukraine, 

In its latest intelligence update, the defence ministry said that on Saturday, air defence forces of the Wagner group had reportedly shot down an II-22M aircraft, part of a relatively small fleet of 12 "heavily utilised for airborne command and control, and radio relay tasks.

The ministry warned that the loss of the craft could have a longer-term impact on Russia's air capability, as "there is a possibility that current tasking levels may have to be reduced to safely manage the remaining fleet."

"This will likely undermine Russia's ability to command and coordinate its forces, particularly during periods of high tempo operations."

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About 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface between 1993 and 2010 CREDIT: Wild Horizon/Universal Images Group 

Humans have sucked so much water out of the ground that the Earth has tipped

Pumping excessive amounts of water for farming over two decades has caused the planet to tilt more to the east, study says

The Telegraph By Nick Allen, US EDITOR 28 June 2023

The tilt of the Earth has shifted because of the vast quantity of groundwater humans have sucked out of it over the past two decades, according to scientists.

Pumping water out of the ground for drinking and farming redistributed such a large mass that the Earth’s tilt moved by 31.5 inches to the east, toward Iceland, between 1993 and 2010.

According to the study, published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, the planet’s north-south axis has been tipping at a rate of about 1.7 inches per year.

Scientists described the redistribution of water on the planet as “like adding a tiny bit of weight to a spinning top – the Earth spins a little differently as water is moved around”.

Prof Ki-Weon Seo, a geophysicist at Seoul National University who led the study, said: “Earth’s rotational pole actually changes a lot. Our study shows that among climate-related causes, the redistribution of groundwater actually has the largest impact on the drift of the rotational pole. 

“We have affected Earth systems in various ways. People need to be aware of that.

“I’m very glad to find the unexplained cause of the rotation pole drift. On the other hand, as a resident of Earth and a father, I’m concerned and surprised to see that pumping groundwater is another source of sea-level rise.”

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Why the Earth’s axis has shifted

Sum of observed polar motion excitation trend contributors…

*Estimated polar motion excitation without groundwater storage changes

*Observed trend of polar motion excitation

*Estimated polar motion excitation with groundwater storage changes

Between 1993 and 2010, about 2,150 gigatons of groundwater was extracted from aquifers below the surface, enough to fill Lake Victoria in Africa.

The Earth spins at about 1,000 mph and the largest contributor to the movement of the axis is flow in convection movements in the molten rock, well below the surface.

However, the new study showed that the removal of groundwater was the second largest contributor.

The fact that water removal could change the rotation of the planet was first discovered seven years ago, but has now been measured.

Surendra Adhikari, a research scientist at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who published a 2016 paper on water redistribution impacting rotational drift, said: “They’ve quantified the role of groundwater pumping on polar motion, and it’s pretty significant.”

In the new study, researchers created models of changes in the wobble of the Earth’s rotational pole and the movement of water.

To begin with, they looked at only the movement of ice sheets and glaciers, before adding in different scenarios of groundwater redistribution.

The model only matched the observed polar drift once the researchers included the 2,150 gigatons of groundwater redistribution.

They also found the location of the groundwater contributes to how much it could change polar drift.

The fact that water removal could change the rotation of the planet was first discovered seven years ago CREDIT: Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images

Redistributing water from the mid-latitudes has a larger impact on the movement of the rotational pole.

Water being redistributed in western North America and northwestern India, both at mid-latitudes, had a significant impact.

Prof Seo said that attempts to slow the extraction of groundwater depletion in those regions could theoretically alter the drift of the rotational pole, but only if such conservation approaches were sustained for decades.

The rotational pole usually changes by several metres a year owing to other factors including the mantle flow.

That means changes due to the pumping of groundwater would not lead to a shifting of the seasons.

However, when looked at on geologic time scales, polar drift could have an impact on the climate, the scientists said.

They will continue to look into previous decades to see how much groundwater extraction has affected the Earth’s rotation over a longer period.

Prof Seo said: “Polar motion data are available from as early as the late 19th century.”

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