Alaska: Trump vs the BRICS…
Executive Summary
The summit for control of the world’s energy is underway. Make no mistake: Alaska isn’t about peace; it’s about spoils. It’s a fight over who will dominate the planet’s energy supply, deciding who gets to open or close the taps on the oil, gas, and vital minerals that sustain the global economy. On one side is Putin, supported by a BRICS+ alliance controlling half the world’s energy resources; on the other side is Trump, isolated, vulnerable, and scrambling for a photo op that might salvage his position.
Just a Single Penny in 2025—Yet the Work Burns Bright
250,000 readers. Countless hours of independent analysis. And in 2025—just a single contribution.
We uncover the patterns where geopolitics meets energy — work powered by rigorous research, licensed data, and a commitment to clarity in an age of noise. But even the brightest flame needs fuel. Always, just a single pound, euro, yen, franc, mark, crown, or rupee is enough. Supporting us isn’t impossible — it’s what keeps the lights burning.
This keeps the imagery (“brightest flame”) but appeals to support a bit smoother and easier to read.
Support our work:
PayPal: gjmtoroghio@germantoroghio.com
IBAN: SE18 3000 0000 0058 0511 2611
Swish: 076 423 90 79
Stripe: [Donation Link]
If you can’t give, share on X, LinkedIn, or Energy Central. It costs nothing and can carry the truth further.
https://x.com/Germantoroghio/status/1956047316273476029/photo/1
The times are uncertain. The need for clarity is not.
All rights are preserved to German & Co.
Germán & Co, Karlstad, Sweden | August 14, 2025________________________________________
Copyright Notice: 2025 Germán Toro Ghio. All rights reserved.
________________________________________
The clash of two worlds
Tomorrow in Anchorage, Alaska, it will not simply be two presidents facing each other; it will be two worlds. On one side, Donald Trump, physically alone in the room but carrying the still-formidable weight of the American economy; on the other, Vladimir Putin, without a formal diplomatic entourage, yet backed implicitly by a BRICS+ coalition that is no longer just an economic club, but a political, energy and technological bloc representing over 3.5 billion people — around 44% of the world’s population — and roughly 36% of global GDP at purchasing power parity.
This encounter does not happen in a vacuum. Every time an American president and a Russian leader have sat across a table — from Reykjavik in 1986 (Reagan and Gorbachev) to Helsinki in 2018 (Trump and Putin) — the world has projected excessive hopes onto them. History is stubborn: such summits rarely rewrite the chessboard. More often, they freeze it.
The difference now is that Putin does not arrive as the head of an isolated post-Soviet power, as in the early US–Russia summits. He comes armed with an alternative architecture: BRICS+, recently expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. This bloc jointly controls about 44% of global oil production, a large share of natural gas reserves, and a growing portion of the market for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths.
The United States, though still the world’s largest single economy (nominal GDP around $27 trillion in 2024), depends on alliances to project its power. And here lies Trump’s first weakness: he arrives without a cohesive bloc. Europe keeps its distance; Japan and South Korea are focused on containing China; and in Latin America, even traditionally pro-Washington governments are signing energy agreements with Beijing or Moscow.
If this is a chessboard — and geopolitics always is — the pieces are uneven. One player has depth, a structured formation, and strategic reserves; the other, a powerful queen but scattered pawns and little coordination. In diplomacy, that imbalance can be fatal.
________________________________________
Two portraits, according to Lagarde
In a 2023 interview with Le Journal du Dimanche, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde spoke of Putin and Trump not as a cautious diplomat might, but as someone who understands power, economics, and human psychology from the inside.
Of Vladimir Putin, she said he was “incredibly meticulous, detailed and knowledgeable”, a leader who arrives at any table with all possible data, scenarios pre-calculated, and the patience to wait for the opportune moment. In Moscow, the remark was received almost as an endorsement of his governing style: the man who never improvises, who always bides his time, and who never reveals all his cards.
On Donald Trump, Lagarde was more guarded but equally pointed. She did not call him ignorant, but described him as a “disruptor”, capable of wrong-footing allies, forcing unexpected changes, and shattering established frameworks. In Europe, the description was read more as a warning than a compliment: a president who respects no rules is as unpredictable for his friends as for his foes.
They embody opposing styles of power. Putin, the chess player calculating twenty moves ahead; Trump, the poker player ready to bluff the table into submission if he thinks the spectacle will work. One trusts in time and structure; the other, in impact and surprise.
Putin has already internalised a key fact: Trump can be seduced by theatre, by grandiose settings, by the illusion of an immediate triumph. Putin, a master of political choreography — from Red Square parades to hosting Miss Universe in Moscow — knows exactly how to build that stage so that Trump leaves feeling victorious, even if he has gained nothing concrete.
________________________________________
The origins of their strategies
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born in 1952 in Leningrad, a city still scarred by the Nazi siege that killed over a million. He grew up in a kommunalka — a communal flat in a poor neighbourhood, sharing a kitchen and bathroom with multiple families. Street fights were part of everyday life. As a teenager, he found in judo and sambo not just a physical discipline, but a philosophy: patience, control, and using the opponent’s strength against him. It is not always the strongest who wins, but the one who waits best — a principle that would define his politics.
By the late 1980s, as a KGB officer posted to Dresden, East Germany, he witnessed the collapse of the GDR and the Soviet retreat. That experience, he has said, taught him that “when the state loses control, the street shows no mercy” — and that in politics, weakness is punished instantly. That security-first mentality has shaped his entire career, from the Chechen wars to the annexation of Crimea.
Donald John Trump was born in 1946 in Queens, New York, into a family already wealthy from real estate. His father, Fred Trump, was a property magnate. Donald grew up without knowing scarcity; biographers say he paid his elder sister to do his homework. He was not a disciplined reader or student, but quickly understood the value of image and self-promotion.
In the 1980s and 90s, he built a business empire of casinos, hotels and golf courses — often financed through heavy debt. Atlantic City was his laboratory: flashy investments, golden branding, spectacular openings… and an almost surgical ability to sell success even when the accounts were bleeding. His Miss Universe venture took him to Moscow in 2013, blending glamour, politics, and contact with Russia’s elite. Whether it directly influenced his relationship with Putin is unproven, but it did place him in circles close to the Kremlin.
Two lives, two psychologies. Putin believes in structure, intelligence gathering, and patience; Trump in branding, spectacle, and the quick win. In Anchorage, one will carry the game in his head; the other, in tomorrow’s headlines.
________________________________________
A wounded president
Trump arrives in Alaska with a broken promise hanging over him: his much-trumpeted “24-hour peace” for Ukraine. It was one of his most repeated campaign lines — a near-messianic claim in the eyes of supporters. But no ceasefire came; the war dragged on, and the idea now looks more like a slogan than a plan.
To that injury comes a more recent, deeper one: the disaster in the Middle East. In mid-2025, Israel suffered one of the most severe military blows in its history. Its forces were caught off-guard by a coalition of militias and state units, which, within weeks, dismantled key parts of its advanced defence network.
Trump authorised a joint US-Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. It was billed as a decisive, surgical operation. The reality, as later leaks showed, was far less dramatic: damage was limited, critical facilities were only knocked offline for months, and Iran’s retaliation was swift and precise.
Tehran not only repelled the strike but launched missiles at US bases in the region — and Washington chose not to respond militarily. The White House called it “strategic prudence”; critics called it “fear”. In Europe and Asia, allies took note: American deterrence no longer seemed automatic. In Moscow, Putin filed it neatly into his political algorithms.
For Putin, Anchorage will not be a meeting with Trump the negotiator, but Trump the man who has lost two narrative battles in under a year, who lacks a united bloc behind him, and who badly needs a symbolic win to sell to his base. It is fertile ground for Kremlin power plays.
________________________________________
The energy war
Strip away the public diplomacy, and Alaska is about energy. It's not just who produces it, but who can control its flow, interrupt it, or weaponise it.
The BRICS+ bloc — now including Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Egypt and Ethiopia — holds unprecedented leverage:
44% of global oil output (Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran are among the top five producers)
Over 50% of proven gas reserves (dominated by Russia, Iran, Qatar — the latter in talks to join)
Around 70% of known reserves of critical minerals essential for the energy transition (lithium from Brazil, cobalt from South Africa, rare earths from China)
The danger is not just production, but route control:
Strait of Hormuz (Iran, Oman) — 20% of world oil passes here
Suez Canal (Egypt) — vital for Middle East-Europe flows
Northern Sea Route (Russia) — shorter Asia–Europe link as Arctic ice retreats
Strait of Malacca — critical for oil bound for China, Japan, South Korea
The precedent is 1973: OPEC’s oil embargo paralysed economies. Today, BRICS+ could act more subtly — reducing output, switching contracts to non-dollar currencies, or delaying shipments to apply pressure.
The US, even as a net energy exporter, cannot dictate these choke points. Trump knows this. Putin knows it. In private, this will be the true subject in Anchorage: who writes the rules for the next decade of global energy.
________________________________________
Cards on the table
Putin’s cards:
Energy leverage — production shifts, alternative contracts, selective LNG offers to EU states willing to break with Washington.
Time in Ukraine — keeping the war frozen but appearing open to dialogue.
Limited security cooperation — small gestures on terrorism or narcotics, enough for Trump to claim a win.
Theatre — controlled optics designed to flatter Trump’s ego.
Trump’s cards:
Financial flexibility — hints at easing sanctions if progress is shown.
Symbolic recognition — offering Russia a seat, even as observer, in certain forums.
Anti-China rhetoric — subtle positioning of Russia as a partial counterweight to Beijing.
Trade concessions — easing restrictions on goods vital to Russian industry.
Trump’s problem: his room for manoeuvre is narrow. Any visible concession to Putin will be political ammunition for his domestic rivals. Putin will exploit that.
________________________________________
Possible scenarios
Symbolic deal — joint declaration on peace and energy stability, no specifics. Putin gains legitimacy; Trump gains headlines.
Photo without substance — smiles, strolls, “good chemistry” talk. Trump sells connection; Putin sells indispensability.
Secret resource talks — off-camera deals on energy supply and sanctions. Risk of leaks damaging Trump.
Controlled clash — sharp words in public, quiet channels open in private. Both leaders strengthen home narratives.
________________________________________
The post-summit spin
Trump will proclaim “a tremendous, historic success” within minutes, using superlatives and avoiding detail. His aim: convince supporters of unique negotiating talent.
Putin will be more measured. State media will frame the meeting as proof that, sanctions or no sanctions, Washington still needs Moscow. Carefully placed stories will suggest Trump sought the meeting, not vice versa.
The narratives will be mutually incompatible — but coexist. The truth will be buried beneath layers of propaganda.
________________________________________
Spassky and Fischer in Alaska
In 1972, Boris Spassky and Bobby Fischer fought a chess match in Reykjavik that was sold as a Cold War showdown. It changed nothing geopolitically.
Anchorage risks being the same: theatre on a confined board. Energy will still be contested, Ukraine will still be at war, and the balance of power will still turn on pipelines, contracts, and quiet alliances rather than handshakes.
________________________________________
Epilogue: A midsummer dream in the Arctic
In Alaska’s political theatre, both men are living their own Shakespeare. It is A Midsummer Night’s Dream, but under the pale Arctic sun. Both need the photo: Trump, because he could not deliver peace in 24 hours; Putin, because he could not win the war in nearly three years.
Here, image trumps substance. The setting is perfect: a remote city, a round table, global cameras, and two men who must project strength despite the wear. Neither will truly win, but neither can afford to look like the loser. The summit will end, like Shakespeare’s comedy, without immediate tragedy… and without real resolution. The audience will leave believing they saw something decisive. The actors, knowing it was only theatre, will prepare for the next act.
________________________________________
The Author:
“enriching our understanding of history beyond traditional battlefields and royal courts,” praising the way his journeys move from the discomfort of a Moscow hotel to the exhilaration of the Nicaraguan jungle... Juan Forch
Germán Toro Ghio ranks among the most influential voices in the global energy sector, his work reaching over a quarter of a million readers worldwide. As a recognised Expert in The Energy Collective and a featured contributor in Energy Central’s Power Perspectives™ series, he is known for translating complex geopolitical and market shifts into clear, timely insights. As CEO of Germán & Co., he has spent more than three decades navigating the energy industry—predicting its future with precision—while holding leadership roles such as Corporate Vice-President of Communications for AES Dominicana, where he led innovative strategies for natural gas promotion and regional energy integration.
Before entering the energy world, Germán’s career bridged culture, literature, and diplomacy. He served as Executive Secretary for the Forum of Culture Ministers of Latin America and the Caribbean, authored the project document and prologue for the UNDP’s Colombia en el Planeta alongside William Ospina and the legendary theatre group La Candelaria, and worked closely with Nicaraguan poet and priest Ernesto Cardenal. He championed the special editions of La insurrección solitaria by Carlos Martínez Rivas, under the sponsorship of Octavio Paz, laureate of both the Nobel Prize in Literature and the Miguel de Cervantes Prize.
An accomplished author, Germán has published Nicaragua Year 5—a celebrated work of documentary photography praised in Lund University’s catalogue of new books—and The Non Man’s Land and Other Tales. He has overseen dozens of literary editions, including Joven arte dominicano, promoted by Casa de Teatro in Santo Domingo and distributed to leading universities across the world.
Chilean filmmaker, writer, and political scientist Juan Forch—renowned for his role in the historic 1990 “NO” campaign, later dramatized in the Oscar-nominated film No starring Gael García Bernal—has described Germán’s narratives as “enriching our understanding of history beyond traditional battlefields and royal courts,” praising the way his journeys move from the discomfort of a Moscow hotel to the exhilaration of the Nicaraguan jungle.
________________________________________
Germán Toro Ghío leads Karlstad-based Germán Toro Ghío Strategic Energy Consulting, advising on African energy transitions.
© 2025 Germán Toro Ghío. All rights reserved.
In December 2023, Energy Central recognized outstanding contributors within the Energy & Sustainability Network during the 'Top Voices' event. The recipients of this honor were highlighted in six articles, showcasing the acknowledgment from the community. The platform facilitates professionals in disseminating their work, engaging with peers, and collaborating with industry influencers. Congratulations are extended to the 2023 Top Voices: David Hunt, Germán Toro Ghio, Schalk Cloete, and Dan Yurman for their exemplary demonstration of expertise. - Matt Chester, Energy Central
You can't possibly deny me...
Have a wonderful day filled with good health, happiness, and love…